After vacationing in the Destin/SoWal area for the past 12 years, my wife and I are finally planning on purchasing a condo. At the moment, our target date is to purchase by the end of 2007.
I have already seen some of the properties I've had my eye on decrease in price over the last year. My current thinking is that prices will continue to decline through next year.
What is the general thinking of the market over the next year? How far down can it realistically go?
I know there are quite a few SoWal.com members that are "in the business". I'm really interested to get your view (and advise) on the subject.
Thanks in advance!
LeBoeuf
LeBoeufBeach LoverPrairieville, LA (in body); SoWal (in spirit)73 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Lover
7,715 views
Replies
41nmosleynmosleyBeach Comber48 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Comber
I am telling you Shelly, BMBV is right! You could very easily work in comedy. I have said it before but it bears repeating...you have the gift of just seeing something funny and finding a perfect entry point to use it. Not to say that you aren't to be taken seriously for your data at times. You could have worked on Seinfeld during it's heyday. It is that kind of wit that I am talking about with you. Do you (and I am not kidding here) think that the market will be turned around by mid-2008? I am not speaking about the Halcion days of a few years ago, I mean just steady, healthy transactions with people buying who really want to be there? Do tell. Also, do you know where the best neighborhoods (safe and beautiful places to raise kids) to live in Birmingham would be if you were having to move there? If not, do you know anyone who knows? Have an amazingly blessed and beautiful day!
dsilvar
dsilvarBeach FanaticMiramar beach307 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Do you (and I am not kidding here) think that the market will be turned around by mid-2008?Go on Shel...get out your crystal ball...inquiring minds want to know!
p.s Over indulging.... Its the American way. Just got back from Kenya..amazing what a family survives on there..and they seem happy as clams..no granite counter tops.:idontno:
Bobby J
Bobby JBeach FanaticBlue Mountain beach4,041 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Let me guess.....:roll: ....Florida??
You may have something here. Do not buy in Florida. Run!!!! The weather is horrible! The people are mean! The views are pitiful!!!! Get out while you still can. The emerald green water is just odd looking!!! Run!!!! 😀
Franny
FrannyBeach FanaticPt. Washington4,026 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
You may have something here. Do not buy in Florida. Run!!!! The weather is horrible! The people are mean! The views are pitiful!!!! Get out while you still can. The emerald green water is just odd looking!!! Run!!!! 😀
:lolabove: :lolabove: :floor:
Paula
PaulaBeach FanaticMichigan but someday in SoWal as well3,747 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
LeBoeuf:
I'd spend more time vacationing in SoWal and getting to know the different neighborhoods as you try to decide when to buy. There are places for sale in most neighborhoods. This way, you'd get a chance to talk to a lot of people and get a sense of what kind of neighborhood/location feels right to you and what places in that area seem to have what you want (e.g., which are quieter than others, which have other benefits). The rental rates are so low this time of year, it's a good time to try different places on to see what fits. It's hard to really know the advantages/disadvantages of a home/condo/cottage/community until you spend a little time there.
And you'd get a chance to meet with realtors face-to-face to hear what they have to say, visit open houses, etc.
It would be a very enjoyable winter project and there doesn't seem to be any pressure to buy quickly so you can relax and enjoy yourself while your thinking about buying.
One thing we looked at when buying in SoWal was the cost of association fees. We bought at a place that has very low fees because we didn't want to pay a lot of money in association fees every year (our community has a lot of native landscaping so there's not a lot of grass to water/mow/landscape and that looks nice and saves $). Association fees tend to go up every year, so you'll have to add that as a cost of ownership that never stops.
Also, you may want to subscribe to the Walton Sun online and read it every Sunday to get a sense of what's going on in the community, see real estate listings, etc. Some realty companies will send you a weekly email with all the real estate listings so you can see what's going on in the market.
Happy house hunting.
I'd spend more time vacationing in SoWal and getting to know the different neighborhoods as you try to decide when to buy. There are places for sale in most neighborhoods. This way, you'd get a chance to talk to a lot of people and get a sense of what kind of neighborhood/location feels right to you and what places in that area seem to have what you want (e.g., which are quieter than others, which have other benefits). The rental rates are so low this time of year, it's a good time to try different places on to see what fits. It's hard to really know the advantages/disadvantages of a home/condo/cottage/community until you spend a little time there.
And you'd get a chance to meet with realtors face-to-face to hear what they have to say, visit open houses, etc.
It would be a very enjoyable winter project and there doesn't seem to be any pressure to buy quickly so you can relax and enjoy yourself while your thinking about buying.
One thing we looked at when buying in SoWal was the cost of association fees. We bought at a place that has very low fees because we didn't want to pay a lot of money in association fees every year (our community has a lot of native landscaping so there's not a lot of grass to water/mow/landscape and that looks nice and saves $). Association fees tend to go up every year, so you'll have to add that as a cost of ownership that never stops.
Also, you may want to subscribe to the Walton Sun online and read it every Sunday to get a sense of what's going on in the community, see real estate listings, etc. Some realty companies will send you a weekly email with all the real estate listings so you can see what's going on in the market.
Happy house hunting.
LeBoeuf
LeBoeufBeach LoverPrairieville, LA (in body); SoWal (in spirit)73 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach LoverAuthor
Thanks for the great advise, Paula. For about the last four years, I've vacationed in the 30-A neighborhoods that I would be interested in buying. I'm keeping all options open, although I'm really stuck on one particular property, but the association fees are expensive. I'm going to be in the area for Thanksgiving week, and I plan to meet with a couple of realtors and also visit some properties. Maybe I'll run into some SoWallers while visiting!
It have been really interesting to watch the ebb and flow of properties over the last few years. We had a chance to purchase a condo in Destin in 2003. We passed -- just was not ready to make the jump. The exact same condo sold in 2006 for 42% higher than the price in 2003. So much for a downturn!
I also have subscribed to Walton Sun online and are already receiving e-mails from local realtors. It sounds like we are on the same page.
My ultimate goal would be to find a way to work and live in the area. This will take some time, and would probably require a leap of faith into another profession. Only the future knows........
It have been really interesting to watch the ebb and flow of properties over the last few years. We had a chance to purchase a condo in Destin in 2003. We passed -- just was not ready to make the jump. The exact same condo sold in 2006 for 42% higher than the price in 2003. So much for a downturn!
I also have subscribed to Walton Sun online and are already receiving e-mails from local realtors. It sounds like we are on the same page.
My ultimate goal would be to find a way to work and live in the area. This will take some time, and would probably require a leap of faith into another profession. Only the future knows........
Edited
SHELLY
SHELLYSoWal Insider5,763 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Insider
Citizens insurance to drop some properties
The state-run insurer will be verifying the homestead status of its policies because it will soon no longer cover second homes and most investment properties.
BY BEATRICE E. GARCIA
bgarcia@MiamiHerald.com
The state-run insurance pool is getting ready to move second homes, vacation homes and most investment properties off its books.
An insurance bill passed in May requires Citizens Property Insurance to stop offering windstorm coverage to non-homestead properties after March 1, 2007. The aim of the law is to reduce risk and slow the growth for the insurer of last resort. More....

The state-run insurer will be verifying the homestead status of its policies because it will soon no longer cover second homes and most investment properties.
BY BEATRICE E. GARCIA
bgarcia@MiamiHerald.com
The state-run insurance pool is getting ready to move second homes, vacation homes and most investment properties off its books.
An insurance bill passed in May requires Citizens Property Insurance to stop offering windstorm coverage to non-homestead properties after March 1, 2007. The aim of the law is to reduce risk and slow the growth for the insurer of last resort. More....

Edited
30A Skunkape
30A SkunkapeSkunkyBackatown Seagrove10,329 postsJoined View profileMessageSkunky
Citizens insurance to drop some properties
The state-run insurer will be verifying the homestead status of its policies because it will soon no longer cover second homes and most investment properties.
BY BEATRICE E. GARCIA
bgarcia@MiamiHerald.com
The state-run insurance pool is getting ready to move second homes, vacation homes and most investment properties off its books.
An insurance bill passed in May requires Citizens Property Insurance to stop offering windstorm coverage to non-homestead properties after March 1, 2007. The aim of the law is to reduce risk and slow the growth for the insurer of last resort. More....
SO does this suggest more unloading?:idontno:
Smiling JOe
Smiling JOeSoWal Expert31,643 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Expert
SO does this suggest more unloading?:idontno:You may see many people "moving to Florida," to file for Homestead. 😀
ecopal
ecopalBeach Fanatic261 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Below is an interesting article pertaining to real estate in our area.
Personally I tend to be more pessimistic about the real estate market but this article has some good points.
I live on 30A but am by no means one of the ?elite influential power brokers ? who in someone's imagination meet at Bud and Alleys sky bar--I prefer the relaxation of sitting on the beach with a glass of fine wine at the fraction of the cost.
Nor am I a real estate agent or developer. I just love living on 30A and would not trade it for anywhere else on the coast.
What I am hearing from knowledgeable friends in real estate is that the market will probably bottom by or before the Spring of 2007.
Based on my overall impression if I were a seller I would hedge my bets and take my property of the market until things start picking up. I would hate to be the last one to sell at the bottom.
If I were a buyer I would currently be carefully reading the classified ads, monitoring sowal, and checking with bank mortgage lenders regarding foreclosures and possibly even working with someone on 30A who has their hand on the pulse of the market.
There are some desperate sellers out there and you can probably already get a steal that may end up being bought below the yet to be determined ?median? bottom price.
http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/biz2/newrules_bestinvest/index.html
1. Panama City, FL
72%
Projected gain in home prices (5-year)
Median home price
2006: $223,000
2011: $383,000
Population
2006: 166,000
2011: 187,000
Per capita income
2006: $31,000
2011: $40,200
A small city needs one of two things to jack up housing demand: more people or wealthier people. Unlike the rest of Florida, Panama City hasn't really attracted either, mainly because it's isolated on Florida's panhandle.
The interstate highway system bypasses it, and the runway at the local airport isn't long enough to support anything beyond regional jets. But now Panama City is poised to host big airliners, more visitors - and a lot more buyers.
State and local governments and a top regional developer, St. Joe Co., are planning to build a new airport by 2008 at a cost of more than $300 million. Locals expect the new facility to open up the region the way Southwest Florida International Airport in Fort Myers helped drive a housing boom along Florida's southwestern coast in the 1980s.
"Panama City is an economy waiting to break out," says Steven Cochrane, chief regional economist for Moody's Economy.com. Other factors increasing demand: Property prices are still low by Florida standards, and the local market has already absorbed a price correction after peaking last year.
Janet Roan, a Century 21 agent in Panama City, notes that two-bedroom beachfront condos are going for as little as $330,000 - down by more than $100,000 from 2005.
CAUTION: Local politicians, notoriously cozy with builders, have green-lighted several master-plan communities for future development. If supply gets out of hand, prices will stall
Personally I tend to be more pessimistic about the real estate market but this article has some good points.
I live on 30A but am by no means one of the ?elite influential power brokers ? who in someone's imagination meet at Bud and Alleys sky bar--I prefer the relaxation of sitting on the beach with a glass of fine wine at the fraction of the cost.
Nor am I a real estate agent or developer. I just love living on 30A and would not trade it for anywhere else on the coast.
What I am hearing from knowledgeable friends in real estate is that the market will probably bottom by or before the Spring of 2007.
Based on my overall impression if I were a seller I would hedge my bets and take my property of the market until things start picking up. I would hate to be the last one to sell at the bottom.
If I were a buyer I would currently be carefully reading the classified ads, monitoring sowal, and checking with bank mortgage lenders regarding foreclosures and possibly even working with someone on 30A who has their hand on the pulse of the market.
There are some desperate sellers out there and you can probably already get a steal that may end up being bought below the yet to be determined ?median? bottom price.
http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/biz2/newrules_bestinvest/index.html
1. Panama City, FL
72%
Projected gain in home prices (5-year)
Median home price
2006: $223,000
2011: $383,000
Population
2006: 166,000
2011: 187,000
Per capita income
2006: $31,000
2011: $40,200
A small city needs one of two things to jack up housing demand: more people or wealthier people. Unlike the rest of Florida, Panama City hasn't really attracted either, mainly because it's isolated on Florida's panhandle.
The interstate highway system bypasses it, and the runway at the local airport isn't long enough to support anything beyond regional jets. But now Panama City is poised to host big airliners, more visitors - and a lot more buyers.
State and local governments and a top regional developer, St. Joe Co., are planning to build a new airport by 2008 at a cost of more than $300 million. Locals expect the new facility to open up the region the way Southwest Florida International Airport in Fort Myers helped drive a housing boom along Florida's southwestern coast in the 1980s.
"Panama City is an economy waiting to break out," says Steven Cochrane, chief regional economist for Moody's Economy.com. Other factors increasing demand: Property prices are still low by Florida standards, and the local market has already absorbed a price correction after peaking last year.
Janet Roan, a Century 21 agent in Panama City, notes that two-bedroom beachfront condos are going for as little as $330,000 - down by more than $100,000 from 2005.
CAUTION: Local politicians, notoriously cozy with builders, have green-lighted several master-plan communities for future development. If supply gets out of hand, prices will stall
SHELLY
SHELLYSoWal Insider5,763 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Insider
Do you (and I am not kidding here) think that the market will be turned around by mid-2008? I am not speaking about the Halcion days of a few years ago, I mean just steady, healthy transactions with people buying who really want to be there? Do tell. Also, do you know where the best neighborhoods (safe and beautiful places to raise kids) to live in Birmingham would be if you were having to move there? If not, do you know anyone who knows? Have an amazingly blessed and beautiful day!
My crystal ball doesn't see out that far....there's a cloud of excrement that needs to be flushed from the economy before the damage done over the past few years starts to turn around (historically high inventories, foreclosures, exotic mortgage resets, unaffordability, lots and lots of fraud).
I don't know anything about Birmingham (nor have I come across any glaring comments that are positive or negative about that market). If I were in the market now, I wouldn't be compelled to rush into buying a home at this point. I'd use the time wisely to save money and do lots of research about housing, mortgages, costs, taxes, neighborhoods, etc. IMO this market isn't going anywhere anytime fast (except down or sideways). (Many Others™ would disagree.)
If you buy a home for the purpose of "housing your family" (imagine that??) long-term, one would expect that you would ride its market price up and down...that's what I've been doing. But as the price ebbed and flowed through the years, I neither felt exhilarated nor depressed--just comfortable to have a place to call my "home."
Edited
Paula
PaulaBeach FanaticMichigan but someday in SoWal as well3,747 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Thanks for the great advise, Paula. For about the last four years, I've vacationed in the 30-A neighborhoods that I would be interested in buying. I'm keeping all options open, although I'm really stuck on one particular property, but the association fees are expensive. I'm going to be in the area for Thanksgiving week, and I plan to meet with a couple of realtors and also visit some properties. Maybe I'll run into some SoWallers while visiting!
It have been really interesting to watch the ebb and flow of properties over the last few years. We had a chance to purchase a condo in Destin in 2003. We passed -- just was not ready to make the jump. The exact same condo sold in 2006 for 42% higher than the price in 2003. So much for a downturn!
I also have subscribed to Walton Sun online and are already receiving e-mails from local realtors. It sounds like we are on the same page.
My ultimate goal would be to find a way to work and live in the area. This will take some time, and would probably require a leap of faith into another profession. Only the future knows........
LeBoeuf:
Glad it was helpful. We plan to spend a lot more time in SoWal in about 6 years when the last child goes off to college... In the meantime, I try to get there as often as I can.
The other piece of advice we got when we were looking was to look carefully at the quality of construction. Some places can look very nice outside and inside, but I heard from some people that so many places were built so quickly that sometimes the quality of construction suffered. You'd want to snoop around, get a quality inspection, and find out whatever you can regarding quality of construction. We also wanted a place that built after Opal and hurricane codes were in place. One could argue that whatever was left standing after Opal was pretty hurricane resistance, too, though.
Again, happy house hunting.
nmosleynmosleyBeach Comber48 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Comber
Shelly - Thanks for addressing the Birmingham question. The benefit that we saw in moving there if we end up having to do so, was that we would be a few hours drive to SoWal rather than a 12-hour haul from Houston :clap_1:
I found some lovely homes on-line that are architecturally pleasing but I have no idea about the actual areas as far as schools, museums, etc. I am still doing research just in case we go but I just thought ya'll might know some folks who are from there with a bit more insight into the nicer areas of town. As always, I appreciate your thoughts!! Have a great afternoon.
I found some lovely homes on-line that are architecturally pleasing but I have no idea about the actual areas as far as schools, museums, etc. I am still doing research just in case we go but I just thought ya'll might know some folks who are from there with a bit more insight into the nicer areas of town. As always, I appreciate your thoughts!! Have a great afternoon.
SHELLY
SHELLYSoWal Insider5,763 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Insider
The other piece of advice we got when we were looking was to look carefully at the quality of construction. Some places can look very nice outside and inside, but I heard from some people that so many places were built so quickly that sometimes the quality of construction suffered. You'd want to snoop around, get a quality inspection, and find out whatever you can regarding quality of construction.
Ditto on the inspection for bubble-era (or any era) houses. Check out these links with slideshows of what inspectors find:Part 1 Part 2😀
Edited
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