What's up with the market in the grayton beach area

You make a good point. I don't want to move twice (once is hard enough), so I don't want to rent a house or hassle with a storage unit. Or even try and find a rental with a fenced yard and pet friendly for 4 pets- it is not likely landlords will come calling offering their rental with a mob like ours. We have 2 kids, 2 dogs, and 2 cats- the drive down alone will be brutal. We don't have a paid off mortgage here, so I don't expect we will have one there either!:floor:

How are you planning to transition?

Have you sold your present house yet? Or are you going to put it on the market, and buy a house here at the same time? (And hold 2 mortgages.)

How are you planning to transition?

Have you sold your present house yet? Or are you going to put it on the market, and buy a house here at the same time? (And hold 2 mortgages.)

My house sold in a week here, so no, don't have to do 2 mortgages.😀

You mention that if you are an end-user you would go ahead and buy, but if you are a flipper/investor... you should wait...

How do you come to this logic that a end user should sign up to lose money, but yet a flipper/investor should stay away...
I just don't get the logic of telling an end user he should sign up today when all market indications point to a major correction of prices over the next few years...

Not to put words into anyone's mouth but I don't think that anyone was implying that you will lose money if you are an end user. I think the point was that the current market is not conducive to short term returns (AKA flippers). The market being cyclical, right now we are in a low and if you aren't looking for the quick return and can sit until the market comes up again, you'll make money whether you're an end user or a traditional investor. "Buy low and sell high" is axiomatic to any investor seeking a profit. I didn't really see in your post if your question is related to a short term or long term investment goal. Maybe it's just.... I love Sowal, have always wanted a place there and maybe now I can afford it?

It's clear that it's a buyer's market. If you want a place, throw out offers with a good negotiator and somebody will bite at a below market price. They've been doing it all summer. We closed on a place yesterday that was asking $1.695 mil. The sold price was $1.275 mil. That's 75% of asking. It took some negotiation but the point is that there are many motivated sellers out there. The seller had paid $1.3mil in early 2004.

As to your question, is it a good time to wait: Nobody knows when the prices will turn upward. The odd thing is that when we look at overall AVERAGE Price, it isn't really going down, just the opposite. I think that's still the case, isn't it SJ? NUMBER of sales are what is dropping so bad so if the AVERAGE price of a home isn't going down, the question becomes should I try to grab one by a desperate seller now or gamble on the overall cost of a home to start going down in the sowal area? :idontno: .
The Haas Center at the University of West Florida has released there 2007 predictions. They produce a plethora of data which is specifically geared towards the Northwest Florida market as opposed to national data.



You will note the upswing prediction for 1st quarter 2007 which places us above Jan 2003 but still below Jan 2004. Also, note that the data provided is the "number" of sales, not the average sale price. To answer you question related to lower prices: Yes, you are seeing asking prices that are lower as many sellers have lowered prices but the bulk have not lowered below SOLD comps. Prices were much higher in late 2004 and early 2005 but most didn't sell. This doesn't mean that the price of buying a home has gone down, it just means that the "asking" price has gone down. This is why the average prices are holding because the "sold" price is what determines statistical sales, not asking.

The entire article on Northwest Florida Real Estate Activity is at:
http://haas.uwf.edu/article.asp?articleID=232

More good stuff at:
http://haas.uwf.edu/

Regarding current supply. Anybody got the link to this data. DSF - 48 months.

With today's Walton County DSF inventory at 2401. That would mean only 50 homes/month or 150/each quarter. First quarter 2006 was 301 DSF's which is way low and predicted to increase for 2007 - At 301 DSF sales per quarter (103.33/month) that would put the current DSF inventory (with no demand increase) at about 24 months.

Am not disputing the predictions but would just like a little more info on how it was derived. I'm wondering if the Haas data of 301 DSF sales for 1st quarter 2006 is derived from the county clerk's office sooooo ran MLS data which for 1/1/06-3/31/06 is 197 sold DSF's in Walton county (somewhere in between). Of course then if we use county data for sales, we also need to use FSBO's for homes on the market which is pretty low. My guess is that many of the extra 100 solds at Haas are primarily sales that realtors didn't enter into the MLS (maybe precons, bulk purchases etc). And as we know, various data sources provide different figures so this isn't surprising. Hopefully the number of sales will increase and current DSF inventory will last 24-36 months. :idontno:

Am still interested in how the 48 months DSF supply was derived or which source it's coming from if anyone has it. Is it all of Walton, South Walton, all of Ecar, all of Emerald Coast? Thanks in advance for any further info.

In general, despite the effects of rising interest rates and a softening real estate market, David Lereah, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist said that, ?sales remain strong and are providing a solid underlying base for the overall economy?. In fact, the latest economic outlook from NAR suggests that 2006 may yet turn out to be the third best year on record.

I read this guy's book. He's employed by the NAR which obviously has a very large desire to keep people buying. Surprised university research would include quotes from parites that I would have a hard time calling impartial.

Thanks for all the replies. I've been lurking and reading everyones opinions on the market. I also went back and looked at many, many posts over the last year or so. A person named Smiling Joe has posted lots of good data. I especially took note of the real trend reports. Based on the comments of many and looking at the data from Joe, I think I will hold off a good while before putting big dollars into the market. From looking at some of the reports from Joe, it appears to me that the average year to date prices in July 2006 for a home in Walton County are down by over 40% from a year to date average in August 2005 and the average price of a lot year to date in July 2006 is down almost 40% versus the average year to date prices in August 2004. From looking at Joe's real trend reports for each month of 2006, it looks like the downward trend has not stopped. Not time for me to put hard earned savings into property even if I want to hold it long term. I don't like to start off with any investment in the hole. Renting for a while until things settle down is not such a bad deal.

Thanks again for all the input, and the data on this forum is great. Also, the private message from a realtor also was helpful. It really helped me get a better understanding of what's going on in the market.

...... From looking at some of the reports from Joe, it appears to me that the average year to date prices in July 2006 for a home in Walton County are down by over 40% from a year to date average in August 2005.

According to the Davis Properties in a link on this thread...

YTD August 2005, 2006:
Single Family Homes - down .8 %
Condos - down 30.1 %

Wouldn't the average for the above fall considerably less than the 40% decline that you've stated? For clarification, I'm referring to actual sales price, not asking price.

......and the average price of a lot year to date in July 2006 is down almost 40% versus the average year to date prices in August 2004.

According to Davis Properties:
Residential Land - down 11.8 %

This also appears to be significantly less than than the 40% you've stated for land. I understand you said from 2004, not 2005. But I'll take a SWAG and say that all price drop occurred from 2005 to 2006.

Not too many people can predict (accurately) where things will go from here. I do believe we're in for continued correction simply from the basic numbers based on supply and demand (Months of Supply = number of properties divided by number of properties sold each month) as clearly pointed out by Destinsm.

However, I do see a lot of properties on the market in our area where the sellers are "wishful thinkers". They are still asking almost "pre-Dennis prices". I can't figure out why they even bother. It just makes it appear that there's a distress sale going on with all the signs out there and no offers coming in. Oh yea, I guess there is a distress sale going on!! ;-) I suggest they either get realistic with their asking prices or take the property off the market.

billyjoe, as Cork on the Ocean said (and I agree)...
"It's clear that it's a buyer's market. If you want a place, throw out offers with a good negotiator and somebody will bite at a below market price. They've been doing it all summer. "

Good luck and thanks to everyone on this thread for all the info.

Many people on this board know our story - moved here about 3 years ago and had a heart attack at asking prices for SFH. Decided to rent and were happy at plethora of choices we had for long term leases - had to move twice in 18 months because houses sold and rent was raised by over 75%. We have 2 kids, no pets and it was a hassle.

Like many people we kick ourselves weekly for not having bought in early 2004, and also like many people we had no idea of what real estate was going to do (crazy double digit appreciation) and now some asking prices free falling (at least seemingly).

Because we are here for the long term, we finally decided to buy a house in 2005. Have we seen its value appreciate 30-50%? No - have we seen it tumble even 20%? No - it could go either way - no-one has a crystal ball. For us it was all about our enjoyment of our house, we got sick of burning money on rent - yes, we have the same hassles everyone else has with insurance and all else BUT we hope to see modest gains in the next 3-5 years. If we do GREAT _ FANTASTIC - and if we do not, well we will have lived in a slice of paradise for a while and will be grateful for that.

Fortunes are made and fortunes are lost in real estate - but the one constant that rarely changes is LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. As long as Sowal continues to be a desirable place for people to live - as long as services improve, in the whole - this place will do OK in the long run. My 0.2 cents worth!

Many people on this board know our story - moved here about 3 years ago and had a heart attack at asking prices for SFH. Decided to rent and were happy at plethora of choices we had for long term leases - had to move twice in 18 months because houses sold and rent was raised by over 75%. We have 2 kids, no pets and it was a hassle.

Like many people we kick ourselves weekly for not having bought in early 2004, and also like many people we had no idea of what real estate was going to do (crazy double digit appreciation) and now some asking prices free falling (at least seemingly).

Because we are here for the long term, we finally decided to buy a house in 2005. Have we seen its value appreciate 30-50%? No - have we seen it tumble even 20%? No - it could go either way - no-one has a crystal ball. For us it was all about our enjoyment of our house, we got sick of burning money on rent - yes, we have the same hassles everyone else has with insurance and all else BUT we hope to see modest gains in the next 3-5 years. If we do GREAT _ FANTASTIC - and if we do not, well we will have lived in a slice of paradise for a while and will be grateful for that.

Fortunes are made and fortunes are lost in real estate - but the one constant that rarely changes is LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. As long as Sowal continues to be a desirable place for people to live - as long as services improve, in the whole - this place will do OK in the long run. My 0.2 cents worth!

Very well put ChickPea! Peice of mind and Paradise are hard things to put price tags on!

I remember when (not too long ago), vacation homes were bought with enjoyment in mind, with a reasonable DP, good credit and a fixed rate loan, not as a short term "investment". IMO were getting back to that. BTW, buyers waiting since "it'll be cheaper next year" is exactly what happens in a deflationary environment. We're in the standoff phase between buyers and sellers, prices will move down quite a bit when they are priced to sell and not at an aspiration price.

I have a friend selling a home on the West Coast; his realtor was not willing to relist for another 90 days unless the price was dropped significantly. He also heard the agents were getting pretty firm direction from the managers to try and get sellers to list at realistic prices to get some sales moving. They were wallking away from aspirational listings.

I have a friend selling a home on the West Coast; his realtor was not willing to relist for another 90 days unless the price was dropped significantly. He also heard the agents were getting pretty firm direction from the managers to try and get sellers to list at realistic prices to get some sales moving. They were wallking away from aspirational listings.[/QUOTE]

Same thing is going on here. I turn away from 2-4 listings a week because the seller is not willing to get real.