The dollar slide making U.S. real estate a bargain to foreign investors.

I would like to ask of the general audience, especially those involved in real estate sales, is if there has been an increase in foreign buyers in SoWal. It would seem that the U.S. dollar decline would make U.S. real estate a relative bargain for people in Euroland or Asia. ( Remember when the Japanese were buying up premiere properties in NY, CA and Hawaii in the early 80's because the yen was so strong, could the same phenomenon happen now because the dollar continues to slide ). I know it ended badly for the Japanese but that was because of a host of reasons mostly related to domestic Japanese issues. ( Accounting and banking mostly ) I am interested in any actual or anecdotal evidence that you may provide. ( thank you kurt for the help ).

IMO the foreign buyers aren't going to ride to the rescue of the US housing market in large numbers anytime soon (if ever):

(1) In keeping with Asian culture, Japanese tend to learn from mistakes of the past (i.e., how they got crushed in their own "home grown" housing bubble and the Hawaiian real estate game as well) and tend not to repeat them. (Unlike some Americans who in a "Homer Simpson-like way" never learn--it's always "different this time".) Economist: The Global Housing Boom

(2) The Brits and Aussies are licking their wounds from their own recent real estate crashes.

(3) The other Euro economies are having economic problems of their own, but they are investing in some cheap vacation real estate closer to home in areas of the old Eastern Bloc around lakes, forests and whatnot.

(4) The foreign press from South Africa to Sweden to Saudia Arabia is peppered with articles about the US "Real Estate Bubble" and how the prices are about to crash (their words, not mine) which may give many pause before sinking their hard-earned Rand, Krona or Riyals into US soil.

(5) The BIG money are actually hedging their US real estate positions by buying property in Brazil, India and China believeing the US economy is about to tank: Hedging US Real Estate

(6) With the exception of the Americans, the rest of the folks in our world are into "saving," --not "spending." The "baby boom retirement rush" doesn't apply to folks living in Singapore or Peru. Sure there will be foreigners who will buy real estate, but at this juncture the majority will be more apt to look for places closer to their homes or properties selling at bargain basement clearance prices--they are not in a rush...and they can simply tell by looking at the ever-expanding listings for land, homes and condos that opportunities are not going to run out anytime soon.

IMO

I was wondering where all the "fast money" is going now (tech stocks in late 90s, real estate in the last few years, etc). Makes you wonder what the
next "everybody's doing it" investment will be.

I was wondering where all the "fast money" is going now (tech stocks in late 90s, real estate in the last few years, etc). Makes you wonder what the
next "everybody's doing it" investment will be.

Buzz on the street: Commodities & Precious Metals

(It's already been there for the last year or so) ;-)

Buzz on the street: Commodities & Precious Metals

(It's already been there for the last year or so) ;-)

Nothing like pork bellies and gold. :funn:

I was wondering where all the "fast money" is going now (tech stocks in late 90s, real estate in the last few years, etc). Makes you wonder what the
next "everybody's doing it" investment will be.

Asia (China) and India are all the rage as well. I personally prefer beach property in SoWal though.

Next 2-4 years...... real estate tax certificates

Next 2-4 years...... real estate tax certificates

Good call. There's a book on this called The 16% Solution. I read it a few years ago. May need to brush up.

Nothing like pork bellies and gold. :funn:

Gold...YES

Pork Bellies...NO

A play on the Chicago Merc? SWEET!! :cool:

I cannot help but bring up a point I made a year ago and that is the weakness of the US dollar. America is really on sale now !! The value of the dollar vs the euro has collapsed. Have any of the R/E agents out there seen any foreign interest in property here ? Or have you heard of foreigners looking in Naples or Boca or other areas of Fla ? If I was an agent I definitely would explore hooking up with an overseas agency to market properties here in SoWal. America is still the safest and most secure nation on the planet and if you want to own property, we seem also to have the most "owner friendly" laws as compared to other countries. And besides we have the best beach and friendliest people !! I definitely would recommend that agents investigate a "foreign connection".

I cannot help but bring up a point I made a year ago and that is the weakness of the US dollar. America is really on sale now !! The value of the dollar vs the euro has collapsed. Have any of the R/E agents out there seen any foreign interest in property here ? Or have you heard of foreigners looking in Naples or Boca or other areas of Fla ? If I was an agent I definitely would explore hooking up with an overseas agency to market properties here in SoWal. America is still the safest and most secure nation on the planet and if you want to own property, we seem also to have the most "owner friendly" laws as compared to other countries. And besides we have the best beach and friendliest people !! I definitely would recommend that agents investigate a "foreign connection".

If the PC airport is built, the Brits will come en masse as they have bought many sfm's in Osceola, Lake and Polk county as winter residences/rentals. America is a cheap date for these folks.

On this forum, fun=funn, South Walton=SoWal. ;-)

I cannot help but bring up a point I made a year ago and that is the weakness of the US dollar. America is really on sale now !! The value of the dollar vs the euro has collapsed. Have any of the R/E agents out there seen any foreign interest in property here ? Or have you heard of foreigners looking in Naples or Boca or other areas of Fla ? If I was an agent I definitely would explore hooking up with an overseas agency to market properties here in SoWal. America is still the safest and most secure nation on the planet and if you want to own property, we seem also to have the most "owner friendly" laws as compared to other countries. And besides we have the best beach and friendliest people !! I definitely would recommend that agents investigate a "foreign connection".

According to this NAR confection the foreigners had already "flocked" into Florida real estate for the past couple of years--buying overpriced real estate with their once lower priced foreign currency (vs the US Dollar). Now that their dollar-denominated investments in a housing bubble state are falling as well as the dollar vs the euro, they're experiencing a double whammy.

Let's say in June 2005 when one Euro = $1.21, Hans Schadenfreude bought an overpriced 900 sf condo in Florida for $400,000 (or 330,578 Euro).

Time passes <insert video of calendar with pages flying off here>.

Now it is Dec 1, 2006 and not only has the Florida condo market gone south <pun intended> but the dollar tanked against the Euro with one Euro = $1.33, so the original $400,000 "investment" is now only "worth" 300,751 Euro vs 330,578 Euro (@ a 9% drop)--but wait! there's more!--that $400,000 "investment" is now only "worth" $300,000 (or 225,563 Euro)--or nearly a 32% drop in just over a year....not a very good "investment" for Hans.

Now for the good news-bad news part.

The good news is that Hans is getting a break on the carry costs for the taxes, insurance,HOA fees, maintenance and utilities as the dollar continues to tank....the bad news is that he's gotta continue to pay carry costs that are expected to keep rising (especially in the case of taxes & insurance) and that the Florida real estate market will continue to fall over the next several months (years?), moreover it's anyone's guess as to when the dollar will hit bottom. Additionally, word on the street is that Florida Tourismhas dropped off this year further reducing Hans' chances of recouping some of the loses by renting out his condo.

But...you say...it's a good time for foreigners to jump in now (a buyer's market?) since the prices are cheap compared to last year. (So what if Hans got hosed...that's his problem.)

Which poses the question: Would you invest in a foreign housing market where both housing values AND the local currency were tanking at the same time? I'm betting Hans' buddies sitting around the Stammtisch wouldn't.

.....unless Hans bought it because he likes Florida and plans to vacation there quite a bit and does not plan on selling anytime soon. Prior to 2000 or so, people bought beach houses for enjoyment. They turned into "investments" at some point...

.....unless Hans bought it because he likes Florida and plans to vacation there quite a bit and does not plan on selling anytime soon. Prior to 2000 or so, people bought beach houses for enjoyment. They turned into "investments" at some point...

The foreigners who "like Florida and plan to vacation here quite a bit" aren't going to move the housing market neither as far nor as fast as the "investulators with product" are praying for.

Goofer:

I had lunch with a real estate agent that concentrates in PCB last week. She said that most of her sales lately have been to foreigners.

With CNN/Money showing PCB to have the most appreciation of anywhere in the U.S. for 2006, that will get people's attention.

One visit here, and I am sure foreigners are mesmerized by the scenery like we all were upon first glance.

I would like to ask of the general audience, especially those involved in real estate sales, is if there has been an increase in foreign buyers in SoWal. It would seem that the U.S. dollar decline would make U.S. real estate a relative bargain for people in Euroland or Asia. ( Remember when the Japanese were buying up premiere properties in NY, CA and Hawaii in the early 80's because the yen was so strong, could the same phenomenon happen now because the dollar continues to slide ). I know it ended badly for the Japanese but that was because of a host of reasons mostly related to domestic Japanese issues. ( Accounting and banking mostly ) I am interested in any actual or anecdotal evidence that you may provide. ( thank you kurt for the help ).

Yes, It will help with the recovery of the land market. It will not solve all problems but will help some. Property tax reform will help even more, this has to happen soon and will. The Airport will help even more in this area bringing a more diverse group of people. Sowal has so much to offer and still is undiscovred. We see this and it is why most on this board are heavily invested in this area along with the hope of property appreciation.
There is so much money out there looking for a land deal and desperation sales are bringing them in slowly but surely. The Airport will bring Wall-street money in. The amounts invested in and around it will be far far beyond most of our expectations. Until all this happens a lot of PAIN is happening in our market. Good luck to all.

Goofer:

With CNN/Money showing PCB to have the most appreciation of anywhere in the U.S. for 2006, that will get people's attention.

Anywhere in the US???

:shock: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070125/clth016.html?.v=79

According to the Florida Association of Realtors? for 2006 vs 2005 Panama City:

SF Existing Home Sales were down 25% with median prices up a fraction of 1% (registering flat)

Exisiting Condo Sales up 11% with median prices down 12%

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Shelly

I am surprised you are still with us as I am sure you thought the end would be in 2000 with the flip over of a year. Guess doom is next year or right around the corner as you seem to think.

Yes I believe this current market is a correction from something that went up too high, too fast, but I (and I think several others believe sowal will be a great investment), maybe not in the short run, but I'll bet you in the long run. PC may take a little longer.

However, I believe owners and many of the people are enjoying what we have and yes others will come. Foriegn investment too. It will be ok. Even if it means you don't get to be right, will that be ok with you?

No offense, I just believe it is going to be mostly good for the near and distant future. If I'm wrong I will say so in a few years, but I don't think I will have to.:blush:

Nothing like pork bellies and gold. :funn:

makes for a great vacation!

makes for a great vacation!

Exactly....set aside some profits and am going to do some fly fishing up north this Spring.

Got Trout?

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The foreigners who "like Florida and plan to vacation here quite a bit" aren't going to move the housing market neither as far nor as fast as the "investulators with product" are praying for.

How can you have any idea what foreign investment would be like sans the international airport. OIA brings literally millions of foreign vacationers to Central Fl. These folks have no idea of the panhandle's beaches. The airport at PC will bolster the real estate market by bringing is thousands who have never laid eyes on the area.

How can you have any idea what foreign investment would be like sans the international airport. OIA brings literally millions of foreign vacationers to Central Fl. These folks have no idea of the panhandle's beaches. The airport at PC will bolster the real estate market by bringing is thousands who have never laid eyes on the area.

I guess it all boils down to the ability of current holders of recently purchased, just-closed or soon-to-be closed "investment" condos/houses to pay out ever-increasing carry costs while waiting for the state of Florida to build its international airport (and supporting infrastructure). By the way...when are they scheduled to turn the first spade of dirt on that project??


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I guess it all boils down to the ability of current holders of recently purchased, just-closed or soon-to-be closed "investment" condos/houses to pay out ever-increasing carry costs while waiting for the state of Florida to build its international airport (and supporting infrastructure). By the way...when are they scheduled to turn the first spade of dirt on that project??


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If you build it, and your currency is worthless, "they" will come.

If you build it, and your currency is worthless, "they" will come.

:lolabove: I may have to make that my siggy line. :clap_1:

If you build it, and your currency is worthless, "they" will come.

That's a keeper Bob. :roll:

Trademark it and license its use to Century 21.


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