That's probably a good sign that any upswing in the market is due to the folks holding back until the bottom. Whoops! Did I call the bottom or the beginning of the low end speculators?
Speaking of "The Bottom:"
Florida Association of Realtors Media Releases:
JAN 07: The pace for Florida’s existing home sales remained slow in January, though the inventory of homes began to drop in many markets across the state, according to the Florida Association of Realtors? (FAR). Statewide, sales of single-family existing homes totaled 9,382 last month compared to 12,906 homes sold in January 2006 for a 27 percent decrease. Florida’s median sales price for existing single-family homes in January was $239,300; a year ago, it was $243,200 for a 2 percent decrease.
(
Existing home sales likely will gradually rise this year and into 2008, according to the latest housing outlook from the National Association of Realtors? (NAR). “Home sales may appear weak in comparison with the record surge in 2005, but they will be sustained at historically high levels that are in line with long-term demand,” says NAR Chief Economist David Lereah.)
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FEB 07: Florida's housing sector continued to show a more sustainable pace of sales in February, while still-low mortgage rates sparked buyer interest, according to the Florida Association of Realtors? (FAR). Statewide, sales of single-family existing homes totaled 10,779 last month compared to 14,080 homes sold in February 2006 for a 23 percent decrease. Florida’s median sales price for existing single-family homes in February was $235,500; a year ago, it was $242,500 for a 3 percent decrease.
(“If you’re thinking of buying a house, there’s probably not much to be gained by holding out at this point,” says Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. “It doesn’t look like prices are going to fall anymore. We see that as a benchmark. When prices maintain the same level as inflation, then we’re probably in some kind of equilibrium. It indicates the market is stabilizing.”)
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MAR 07:Sales of existing homes in Florida remained at a sustainable pace in March, with buyers continuing to see favorable mortgage rates and a range of housing options available across the state, according to the Florida Association of Realtors? (FAR). Statewide, sales of single-family existing homes totaled 13,469 last month compared to 18,751 homes sold in March 2006 for a 28 percent decrease. Florida’s median sales price for existing single-family homes in March was $236,000; a year ago, it was $244,600 for a 4 percent decrease.
(Rising foreclosures are impacting inventories in some markets, according to housing industry analysts, who predict that tighter lending standards and the fallout from subprime loans will slow the housing sector’s recovery. NAR Chief Economist David Lereah noted that most local markets are demonstrating healthy economic activity and thus can absorb the increases in foreclosures.)
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2008
JAN 08: The mortgage credit crunch and a sluggish economy continued to affect the sales pace of existing homes and condominiums in Florida in January. Statewide, sales of existing single-family homes totaled 6,737 last month while 9,360 homes sold in January 2007 for a decrease of 28 percent in the year-to-year comparison, according to the Florida Association of Realtors?. Florida’s median sales price for existing single-family homes last month was $208,600; a year ago, it was $242,700 for a 14 percent decrease.
(In the latest market outlook from the National Association of Realtors?, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says, “Existing-home sales have moved narrowly since last September, but when the full impact of higher loan limits for conventional mortgages begins to hit the market, there is likely to be a notable rise in home sales and prices. If higher limits are enacted very quickly, we’ll see a faster and more meaningful recovery by expanding safe, affordable financing in high-cost areas – that, in turn, would help to stimulate overall economic activity.”)
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FEB 08: Turmoil in the mortgage market continued to impact Florida’s housing sector in February. Statewide, sales of existing single-family homes totaled 8,310 last month while 11,132 homes sold in February 2007 for a decrease of 25 percent in the year-to-year comparison, according to the Florida Association of Realtors?. Florida’s median sales price for existing single-family homes last month was $198,900; a year ago, it was $237,000 for a 16 percent decrease.
(According to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors? (NAR), the volume of existing-home sales is expected to hold steady through late spring, with a gradual recovery during the second half of the year as the mortgage situation improves in high-cost areas. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says, “The higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional loans will increase consumer choice and provide greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high-cost regions. Therefore, a notable rise in home sales can be anticipated in the second half of the year.”)
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MAR 08: <looking into crystal ball> Home sales and prices are down again year-over-year.
(NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun was asked, "When are we going to reach the bottom?" Yun replied, "Hell if I know!!
....I couldn't find my own arse using both hands, a flashlight and a Garmin GPSMap 5012!")
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