How low can it go?

My wife and I looked long and hard before we bought in Destin. In fact, she was on Sanibel when she called me and said that the beach there was nothing like the beach was here, very few amenities and only one way on and off.The season is January to April and that's it. No family activities. We rejected Sanibel regardless of price. Nonetheless, I also looked at the condo in the ad. It's more than $300/ SF. Doesn't even raise an eyebrow.

As to Amelia. It is very comparable to Destin as to price. We liked it. About the same distance to Atlanta. Not as convenient of course for SW and Midwest folks. The big problem? It is in the gnat zone. There are a lot of bugs there. We decided to get a similar product in a better environment.

Palm Coast has grown like crazy. May truly be a better value than Destin, certainly off the beach. But I want on the beach. So, if there is one decent (read not Galveston) place in the United States that rivals Destin, I say that we are in a darn good place. As to prices, they might go lower. I doubt it. But they are going to be twice as much in 10 years. Why? Desirable area, 32 million people w/i an easy days drive, 9 months a year season, baby boomers retiring.

SeaSide2, I have been sitting back reading these comments for several years and finally decided to join in on all the fun.We are just sitting back and watching the market go lower and lower.We may not buy at the bottom,but we won't be far from it.I am thinking it will take 9 to 12 more months min.I guess we will SEE..what the other SIDE does.

I do hope everyone understands that I know prices will drop. I am trying to make a point that some good stuff (A properties) are leaving the market never to return at the price a lucky buyer just got. I just got an almost full offer on a home I have been pushing. This is such a good deal that I have used it as a barometer for some buyers. If they do not buy this one they are not buying. Guess what? They have not bought and this property will be sold.

Bobby,

You are sort of right, I think.

Sort of right! I will take it. That is the nicest thing anyone said to me today. GoDawg, can't thank you enough for your avatar!

Bobby J, You are welcome,I hope you do sell all the homes that you have been pushing.
You seem to be a really good realtor and on top of the business in the market.We have been looking for several years,have not pulled the trigger,but it's getting close. Too bad that everyone can't conduct business the way you seem to. Good Luck on your business.

Bobby,

There are very nice oceanfront areas that are still valued well under 30A. Examples include the Palm Coast area of Florida (oceanfront lot in beautiful ocean front golf community for $999k http://www.hammockdunes.com/viewlot.asp?ID=198versus $2 million for similar properties in planned communities along 30A or oceanfront home for $999k http://www.bobvila.com/RealEstate/Property-537281635.html), or how about Amelia Island Plantation, and georgeous, uncrowded oceanfront resort with tremendous golf courses (5300 square foot home for $1.9 million http://realestate.aipfl.com/details.cfm?id=367when similar type listings in Watercolor, Watersound or Rosemary would be listed for over $3 million) or Marco Island, Florida (http://www.marcoisland.com/realestate/homesearch/homesearch_details.asp?LID=28227. The list goes on, and on including Hilton Head, Nags Head, Wild Dunes, Kiawah, etc, etc.

There are plenty of great places with as good or better values than along 30A. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder--some people love the panhandle, some don't. I do prefer 30A to any of those places but have plenty of friends that do not agree.

Kiawah has only a few single family homes for sale under a million on the entirety of that ten mile island.

Sort of right! I will take it. That is the nicest thing anyone said to me today. GoDawg, can't thank you enough for your avatar!

Sure thing.

GaDawg, loose that tar, and you're ourt of here, banned for life:rofl::funn:

FYI, that tar is available on Kurt's lists of tars.

FYI, that tar is available on Kurt's lists of tars.

Lol

Kiawah has only a few single family homes for sale under a million on the entirety of that ten mile island.

You can do better research than that can't you?

http://www.kiawahisland.com/real_estate/search-iframe.php?kwd=&ay=&bth=&br=&n=&pt=hc&v=&bmx=null&bmn=70000

Remember, Kiawah is a very high end development with lots more amenities than any area along 30A including the championship golf courses, tennis club, etc. So, comparing to the highest end properties along 30A, Kiawah has some much better values overall. I counted 35 out of 174 homes under $1 million. I don't think you will find that kind of ratio in any of the premier developements along 30A including Watercolor, Watersound, Alys or Rosemary. In addition, many of the high dollar homes in Kiawah sit on large lots (some up to an acre oceanfront) versus the postage stamp lots along 30A. Kiawah appears to be a better value than 30A. Again, I prefer 30A, but not everyone does. So, apples to apples, Kiawah is a much better value.

Kiawah has a very different topography, lots of swamp areas (Excuse me, natural wetlands) that are protected. They have the outer gates and the inner gates with different levels of properties.

The down side is, to me, the water is Atlantic and the sand is not nearly so nice.

You pays your money and you takes your choice.

You can do better research than that can't you?

http://www.kiawahisland.com/real_estate/search-iframe.php?kwd=&ay=&bth=&br=&n=&pt=hc&v=&bmx=null&bmn=70000

Remember, Kiawah is a very high end development with lots more amenities than any area along 30A including the championship golf courses, tennis club, etc. So, comparing to the highest end properties along 30A, Kiawah has some much better values overall. I counted 35 out of 174 homes under $1 million. I don't think you will find that kind of ratio in any of the premier developements along 30A including Watercolor, Watersound, Alys or Rosemary. In addition, many of the high dollar homes in Kiawah sit on large lots (some up to an acre oceanfront) versus the postage stamp lots along 30A. Kiawah appears to be a better value than 30A. Again, I prefer 30A, but not everyone does. So, apples to apples, Kiawah is a much better value.

I vacationed at Kiawah for 10 years in a row starting in 1989[twice] renting homes one block from the ocean to oceanfront most recently. My wife's aunt owns a new construction home near the River Course, I believe behind the second gate in Vanderhorst. I met and know the Realtor, Jeanne Cambell, living currently in Beaufort SC, who listed the entire Island for one million dollars for the widow of the owner who had purchased it in the 50s for 125k. It did not sell. I believe in 1974 Kiawah sold for about 14 million, bought by a Kuwati consortium. Currently I see 5 SFRs under 1 million on Kiawah on Realtor.com. You cannot compare Kiawah to 30A because the island is private, save for a public access at the western end. Lot sizes vary, but they run the gamut. Development has been going on since the 70s with some 50s homes on Eugenia Ave. For the infrastructure and security on the island, you pay at closing, and going forward based on the amenities used and memberships available. The beaches at Kiawah are flat and wide, and look like muddy sand. Have you ever set foot on the island?

I vacationed at Kiawah for 10 years in a row starting in 1989[twice] renting homes one block from the ocean to oceanfront most recently. My wife's aunt owns a new construction home near the River Course, I believe behind the second gate in Vanderhorst. I met and know the Realtor, Jeanne Cambell, living currently in Beaufort SC, who listed the entire Island for one million dollars for the widow of the owner who had purchased it in the 50s for 125k. It did not sell. I believe in 1974 Kiawah sold for about 14 million, bought by a Kuwati consortium. Currently I see 5 SFRs under 1 million on Kiawah on Realtor.com. You cannot compare Kiawah to 30A because the island is private, save for a public access at the western end. Lot sizes vary, but they run the gamut. Development has been going on since the 70s with some 50s homes on Eugenia Ave. For the infrastructure and security on the island, you pay at closing, and going forward based on the amenities used and memberships available. The beaches at Kiawah are flat and wide, and look like muddy sand. Have you ever set foot on the island?

Five times since the mid 80's (nice beaches, beautiful greenery compared to the pine forests that dominate 30A, championship caliber golf, great tennis venue, beautiful hotel, etc). Also, lots of time at Hilton Head, Amelia, Palm Coast, Ft. Lauderdale and lesser vacation time at Miami, Naples, Pawleys Island, Wild Dunes, La Jolla, Del Mar, Malibu, Virginia Beach, Myrtle Beach and Orange Beach. But, that doesn't matter as I am not questioning the qualitative aspects of Kiawah versus 30A.

You stated that there were only a few homes under a million. I found 35 on the site referenced in the message. Realtor.com is a lousy place to look for homes for sale compared to more robust local sites such as Emeraldcoasthomesonline.

Again, I prefer 30A. But, obviously, lots of people prefer Kiawah and that's why they bought homes there. Some people like the flat wide beaches. Heck some people never even go to the beach even while they vacation in a beach community. Some would rather go fishing, some boating, some play golf, some play tennis, etc.

I was debating the original point made by Bobby that 30A is undervalued compared to other beach property. Clearly, it is not.

Five times since the mid 80's (nice beaches, beautiful greenery compared to the pine forests that dominate 30A, championship caliber golf, great tennis venue, beautiful hotel, etc). Also, lots of time at Hilton Head, Amelia, Palm Coast, Ft. Lauderdale and lesser vacation time at Miami, Naples, Pawleys Island, Wild Dunes, La Jolla, Del Mar, Malibu, Virginia Beach, Myrtle Beach and Orange Beach. But, that doesn't matter as I am not questioning the qualitative aspects of Kiawah versus 30A.

You stated that there were only a few homes under a million. I found 35 on the site referenced in the message. Realtor.com is a lousy place to look for homes for sale compared to more robust local sites such as Emeraldcoasthomesonline.

Again, I prefer 30A. But, obviously, lots of people prefer Kiawah and that's why they bought homes there. Some people like the flat wide beaches. Heck some people never even go to the beach even while they vacation in a beach community. Some would rather go fishing, some boating, some play golf, some play tennis, etc.

I was debating the original point made by Bobby that 30A is undervalued compared to other beach property. Clearly, it is not.

You are looking at some attached homes and partial ownership. The fact is that SFR detached are very scarce under a million on that Island, and the venue is very exclusive, barring anyone but owners and guests. Based on dollar value, it is much more expensive to own on Kiawah. It's why you just can't waltz by the guard shack through gates one and two or use many of the clubs as guests unless the owner/members get you in. It's a much different animal altogether aimed at a very high demographic. You cannot even drive the streets looking for lots/homes unless accompanied by a Realtor or owner or as a residing guest. 30a is much undervalued because raw land prices are far lower than Kiawah. The 30A variety of architecture is much higher, as is the freedom of movement throughout the community. 30a is still a cheap date compared to many of those locations you mentioned. I've been to every spot you mentioned, and I choose 30A. 30A is greatly undervalued, and time will prove it. The owner's wife who listed Kiawah Island did so, because her husband was afraid the island was only worth the timber. He owned it all, and look how wrong he was.

You are looking at some attached homes and partial ownership. The fact is that SFR detached are very scarce under a million on that Island, and the venue is very exclusive, barring anyone but owners and guests. Based on dollar value, it is much more expensive to own on Kiawah. It's why you just can't waltz by the guard shack through gates one and two or use many of the clubs as guests unless the owner/members get you in. It's a much different animal altogether aimed at a very high demographic. You cannot even drive the streets looking for lots/homes unless accompanied by a Realtor or owner or as a residing guest. 30a is much undervalued because raw land prices are far lower than Kiawah. The 30A variety of architecture is much higher, as is the freedom of movement throughout the community. 30a is still a cheap date compared to many of those locations you mentioned. I've been to every spot you mentioned, and I choose 30A. 30A is greatly undervalued, and time will prove it. The owner's wife who listed Kiawah Island did so, because her husband was afraid the island was only worth the timber. He owned it all, and look how wrong he was.

You are talking in vague generalities. I guess you didn't check the link I posted. There are 35 SFH's under $1 million listed on the Kiawah Island real estate site. The highest list price was a 5400 square foot oceanfront residence with all the bells and whistles on over 1 acre. Priced at $7.75 million. Please show me somewhere in an exclusive resort along 30A where you can get an oceanfront 1 acre lot with a 5400 sqaure foot beautiful home for $7.75 million. Heck around 30A most people would be asking $7 million just for the acre of land.

Check out the exclusive Amelia Island Plantation http://nas.ctimls.com/PSearch.ASP?form=ResultPage&Rec=20
where you can easily get in for under $1 million and get huge oceanfront homes on huge lots for under $5 million (compare to a 2500 square foot house on a tiny lot in Seaside, Rosemary, Watercolor or the Retreat) for the same price).

The list of more "affordable" beach locales (not that any of them are affordable for the majority of people) goes on and on.

30A ain't cheap compared to any of those locales except for maybe Naples and some California areas.

No, Galveston is not SoWal. But is it worth it to many buyers to pay four times as much for beachfront in SoWal as it is in Galveston?

And for all that it's a beuatiful place here, it's always going to be as something of a disadvantage to many buyers to a place like Sanibel because the winters are cooler and more unpredictable than beach towns further south.

Don't get me wrong. I like it here. But there are pros and cons to it like every place, and not everyone interested affluent buyer looking for a beach house goes into it with the same values. And the cons of the area do end up serving as limiters to the prices in a non-speculative market.

For me, one of the advantages of SoWal/Panhandle area is that for northerners (like me) who are used to REALLY cold weather and who also want to rent out our places for income, we can rent out our SoWal place during the peak summer season when it's nice to be up north anyway, then come to SoWal during the lowest rental season and enjoy average 60's weather with some high and low temps that's much warmer than northern weather. The only thing that I'd wish for with our place in SoWal is a heated pool - but if I were there for longer periods in the winter I'd join somewhere else with a heated pool.

Because it's not so hot in the summer, SoWal would be a comfortable year-round place.

I have said this before but I will say it again. I believe I was one of the original bears on this board just so everyone knows. I think there might be more room for prices to fall here but I am making offers and have closed properties recently. I think fear has become the driving force for many sellers. I believe you might be able to buy at a large enough discount from asking on some properties at this time to get as low as or even below what the bottom will be. When you use rent multiples to buy you should always be in good shape unless the tourist market goes to hell because they arrested everyone off the beach. Even if you are buying strictly for personal use this methodology works. Just my bottom feeding 2 cents.

I have said this before but I will say it again. I believe I was one of the original bears on this board just so everyone knows. I think there might be more room for prices to fall here but I am making offers and have closed properties recently. I think fear has become the driving force for many sellers. I believe you might be able to buy at a large enough discount from asking on some properties at this time to get as low as or even below what the bottom will be. When you use rent multiples to buy you should always be in good shape unless the tourist market goes to hell because they arrested everyone off the beach. Even if you are buying strictly for personal use this methodology works. Just my bottom feeding 2 cents.

Good stuff Pirate. I think we will go below the actual real values and folks will wake up, myself included. Fear is pusing the market. We will then adjust back up and we then should have a more stable scenario.... When? Crystal ball is broken but in some areas we may be there.