Housing Market hits bottom according to NAR.

From the same people who said there was no bubble.


And to buy absolutely as much house as you could, because
a "budget that is tight now will ease in the future as your
earnings grow."

Sightly less rosey outlook:



"...While the mortgage crisis has brought a rising wave of foreclosure notices into public view, less evident have been "pictures of people standing with furniture on the lawn" after being forcibly evicted from their homes, Syron (chief executive of Freddie Mac ) said. "As that begins to happen, and it will happen, I am afraid of the impact that this has."



http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071211/freddie_mac_mortgages.html

I still think were a ways off from bottom. personally.

That said though...It's a great time to buy.

That said though...It's a great time to buy.

Has a realtor ever said "it's a bad time to buy?"

That said though...It's a great time to buy.

Generally speaking, it is certainly a better time to buy than it was
(2) years ago.



Whether it is a better time to buy than it will be in the future is
the unanswered question.

we know no such words.

Generally speaking, it is certainly a better time to buy than it was
(2) years ago.



Whether it is a better time to buy than it will be in the future is
the unanswered question.

Wait two years and you will know the answer to your question of what the market will do in the next two years. However, buying or not buying cannot be taken back, when you find out what the future held, because the future will have already passed. ;-)

Has a realtor ever said "it's a bad time to buy?"

Yep. If I ask you what you are going to do with it and you reply you want to flip it. My reply is "it's a bad time to buy?"

Generally speaking, it is certainly a better time to buy than it was
(2) years ago.



Whether it is a better time to buy than it will be in the future is
the unanswered question.

I will say that sellers are listening to us about getting right on the price. The folks that will not are having a hard time finding agents that will list. Not sure we are at the bottom but over the next year sellers will be pricing properties correctly which will help the market level off. We then will be able to return to a "normal" RE market.

From the same people who said there was no bubble.
And to buy absolutely as much house as you could, because
a "budget that is tight now will ease in the future as your
earnings grow."

I didn't know Bernanke was a Realtor too. :roll:

Thursday, October 27, 2005; Page D01

Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

I didn't know Bernanke was a Realtor too. :roll:

"Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst,..."

Pretty much so....he got it wrong too.

On the other hand, current NAR-shill Yun thinks he's the Fed Chief:

"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the worst part of the credit crunch has already worked its way through the data. “The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming,” he said. “Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels.”

(He's probably counting on short sales and auctions to pick up the slack.)

------------------

Meanwhile, the NAR has tapped each of its members $30 to bankroll the "Annual Now Is The Best Time To Buy" media blitz. :roll:



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http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n2-121207.cfm

heres what I got today.

Has the Housing Market hit bottom yet???

In my opinion, based on my recent Thanksgiving visit to SoWal, Yes & No.

YES, for quality property's on the south side of 30-A.
All recent construction projects using the latest FL building codes and water front is at the low point. I believe these property's have taken a 20% to 30% drop from the high prices in 2005. There will be exceptions with desperate sellers having money problems & smart professional money people are buying these bargains if priced right. Quality always sells and this is the safe real estate value for appreciation $$.

NO, the market is not at the low point for marginal property seller's. So many of these sellers have not gotten the memo about marginal property down @ 40% to 50% from the high point in 2005. Only bargain amateur buyer's are in this market. I believe you want to stay away from this market unless you only have a limited $$$ to spend. Long term you will get little appreciation in $$ value.

Summary: I talked to a few trusted professional real estate people & they sort of agreed. I believe it will be about 1-2-years before the market stabilizes after the presidential election and 6-8-years before we see a really hot real estate market. I think I'll keep what I have & enjoy SoWal with all you wonderful people. I also believe the last standing real estate brokers are truly professional and your best friend during these troubling real estate times.
BTW: This is my man on the street, seat of the pants personal opinion.

T

Has the Housing Market hit bottom yet???

In my opinion, based on my recent Thanksgiving visit to SoWal, Yes & No.

YES, for quality property's on the south side of 30-A.
All recent construction projects using the latest FL building codes and water front is at the low point. I believe these property's have taken a 20% to 30% drop from the high prices in 2005. There will be exceptions with desperate sellers having money problems & smart professional money people are buying these bargains if priced right. Quality always sells and this is the safe real estate value for appreciation $$.

NO, the market is not at the low point for marginal property seller's. So many of these sellers have not gotten the memo about marginal property down @ 40% to 50% from the high point in 2005. Only bargain amateur buyer's are in this market. I believe you want to stay away from this market unless you only have a limited $$$ to spend. Long term you will get little appreciation in $$ value.

Summary: I talked to a few trusted professional real estate people & they sort of agreed. I believe it will be about 1-2-years before the market stabilizes after the presidential election and 6-8-years before we see a really hot real estate market. I think I'll keep what I have & enjoy SoWal with all you wonderful people. I also believe the last standing real estate brokers are truly professional and your best friend during these troubling real estate times.
BTW: This is my man on the street, seat of the pants personal opinion.

T

Great post Tom! The "A" proprieties that have a good price get gobbled up. When the market returns many buyers will be looking at great buys but the quality (location,amenities) deals will be gone. Of course will always have exceptions.

NO, the market is not at the low point for marginal property seller's. So many of these sellers have not gotten the memo about marginal property down @ 40% to 50% from the high point in 2005. Only bargain amateur buyer's are in this market. I believe you want to stay away from this market unless you only have a limited $$$ to spend. Long term you will get little appreciation in $$ value.

Tom -what do you mean by marginal property?

Also, I disagree with your last sentence, but you might have a different definition of long term than I do.

Tom -what do you mean by marginal property?

Also, I disagree with your last sentence, but you might have a different definition of long term than I do.

Hi Kurt,

My definition of marginal property.
Location, location & location.
Property north of 30-A with long distances to the beach.
Former rental property.
Old housing units built before new FL building codes.
Small lots with no HOA controls.
Un-Completed housing developments.

Hope this clears up my post.

T

Hi Kurt,


Hope this clears up my post.

T

Please quantify your appreciation value for both the "YES" properties and "NO" properties.

Also quantify the "hot" RE market expected in 6-8 years (compared to the last frenzy).

How's the RE market in your neck of MI?


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Please quantify your appreciation value for both the "YES" properties and "NO" properties.

Also quantify the "hot" RE market expected in 6-8 years (compared to the last frenzy).

How's the RE market in your neck of MI?


.

Gosh, I feel like I am being grilled like a politician looking for votes
These are my candid personal opinions. All professional advise is welcome.

My comments on a hot market in 6-8 years is back to 2005 pricing and maybe higher.

FYI: If I considered selling my place in SoWal I would do it in 5-years. I believe this would be a good time to take my profit under normal conditions in a good market.

The real estate market in MI is real bad in the Detroit area, except in some Northern resort area's. Example: In the resort area's like Harbor Springs, Petoskey, Charlevoix, etc. good stuff is not selling, but the price's are stable. I talked to a local Harbor Springs realator recently & he said 2nd. home money buyer's are out there & when they come in to write a check they turn to each other & say "what check book should I write the cash check out with"!!! BTW: I want to be like that.

Tom

Has the Housing Market hit bottom yet???

In my opinion, based on my recent Thanksgiving visit to SoWal, Yes & No.

YES, for quality property's on the south side of 30-A.
All recent construction projects using the latest FL building codes and water front is at the low point. I believe these property's have taken a 20% to 30% drop from the high prices in 2005. There will be exceptions with desperate sellers having money problems & smart professional money people are buying these bargains if priced right. Quality always sells and this is the safe real estate value for appreciation $$.

NO, the market is not at the low point for marginal property seller's. So many of these sellers have not gotten the memo about marginal property down @ 40% to 50% from the high point in 2005. Only bargain amateur buyer's are in this market. I believe you want to stay away from this market unless you only have a limited $$$ to spend. Long term you will get little appreciation in $$ value.

Summary: I talked to a few trusted professional real estate people & they sort of agreed. I believe it will be about 1-2-years before the market stabilizes after the presidential election and 6-8-years before we see a really hot real estate market. I think I'll keep what I have & enjoy SoWal with all you wonderful people. I also believe the last standing real estate brokers are truly professional and your best friend during these troubling real estate times.
BTW: This is my man on the street, seat of the pants personal opinion.

T

Interesting observations, with which I mostly agree. I'm not sure that I agree about your statement that only bargain amateurs will be buying "marginal" properties. We do have other types of buyers looking to buy homes. Not all are investors.

I cannot predict the future and don't know where we will be in 6-8 years in the local RE market. If the market is "really hot," as you say, the question people have to ask, is where will they buy in to it? If they wait until the market IS really hot, their profit will not be nearly as great as they would be if they bought prior to, or during, a run-up. You can't get the growth if you wait until everyone is buying. The smart money is buying the good value properties now, while some sellers are struggling financially. Those buyers are typically conservative, with a good knowledge of where this market has been, and a good idea of where it will go.

Interesting observations, with which I mostly agree. I'm not sure that I agree about your statement that only bargain amateurs will be buying "marginal" properties. We do have other types of buyers looking to buy homes. Not all are investors.

I cannot predict the future and don't know where we will be in 6-8 years in the local RE market. If the market is "really hot," as you say, the question people have to ask, is where will they buy in to it? If they wait until the market IS really hot, their profit will not be nearly as great as they would be if they bought prior to, or during, a run-up. You can't get the growth if you wait until everyone is buying. The smart money is buying the good value properties now, while some sellers are struggling financially. Those buyers are typically conservative, with a good knowledge of where this market has been, and a good idea of where it will go.

Thanks SJ
You summary is right on, we don't know the future.

Tom

Interesting observations, with which I mostly agree. I'm not sure that I agree about your statement that only bargain amateurs will be buying "marginal" properties. We do have other types of buyers looking to buy homes. Not all are investors.

I cannot predict the future and don't know where we will be in 6-8 years in the local RE market. If the market is "really hot," as you say, the question people have to ask, is where will they buy in to it? If they wait until the market IS really hot, their profit will not be nearly as great as they would be if they bought prior to, or during, a run-up. You can't get the growth if you wait until everyone is buying. The smart money is buying the good value properties now, while some sellers are struggling financially. Those buyers are typically conservative, with a good knowledge of where this market has been, and a good idea of where it will go.

:scratch:

So you're saying "Now is the best time to buy?"




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:scratch:

So you're saying "Now is the best time to buy?"




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Actually "the best time is in 12 hours"

:scratch:

So you're saying "Now is the best time to buy?"




.

I didn't say that. All I'm saying is that we don't know the future, and without knowing the future, we will never know without a doubt the best time to buy. The best time to buy is known only in hindsight and that relates only historically. It doesn't project into the future, even when six years eventually comes around. Since we only know good investments and bad investments in hindsight, we can only compare now to the past, and now is a helluva lot better time to buy than back in 2005. Again, we only know this because 2005 has passed. If you go back and read, you will see that my thoughts were specifically relating to Tom's guess that the market might be "really hot" in 6-8 years. Do you disagree that the time to buy into a market is when the market is 30-35% off the highs, rather than when a market returns to be "really hot?"

. Do you disagree that the time to buy into a market is when the market is 30-35% off the highs, rather than when a market returns to be "really hot?"

I think Real Estate isn't an everyman's (women's) "investment." I think most of the people in the US should only buy a home when one needs and can afford one. For those who do "invest" in real estate, the best time to buy is when the numbers make sense--and now ain't it. For the other folks who want a beach house "just because" they have money to burn--I think the majority of them already have one, two or more; and for those who do not, the numbers are too small to make a difference.

The credit situation is more serious than folks imagine or are willing to admit. The majority of housing isn't going anywhere but down and sideways until that is straightened out. How the housing market performs is now in the hands of well-financed, pragmatic people--and they're in no rush to buy.

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