Buyer in Watercolor

HB- I sent u an email.

What do you mean you are seeing deals at this price point? If you are seeing them, why are you not buying them?
I have seen four homes in WC which closed around $410/sf in the last six months, but none under $400/sf, and certainly not any near $300/sf. If by $300's you mean, $399.99/sf, you might find something, but if you really mean low 300s, buy some lottery tickets.

You may be seeing deals at that price point in Sowal, but that is below cost in Watercolor and many other local developments. Low 300s is either St. Joe having a fire sale or folks selling at a loss.

Hello Beach -

I am a recent buyer who was shopping for a deal. I made over 15 offers until one said yes. You would be surprised what prices sellers in Watercolor are willing to accept regardless of their starting price. There are better deals out there than the prices the recent auction generated.

Personally I would like to see prices come down even after I bought so we can get back to a normal market, once these distress properties are eliminated, then the market should normalize. email me if your still looking and I'll put you in touch with the realitor I used and he can tell you the great deals out there. mid 300's is very realistic.

email me if your still looking and I'll put you in touch with the realitor I used and he can tell you the great deals out there. mid 300's is very realistic.

even though no sales are showing in WaterColor for under $400/sf? are you predicting into the future, or do you have evidence of homes in WC selling at that price?

Two sales in MLS this year under 400, one for 380 and one for 389.

Sorry for the confusion. I was referring to homes sold in the last six months. In the last 6 months, avg selling price per sq ft is $530, with the high being $743 and the low being $404/sf.

So that must mean we touched the bottom in may with the sale at 389 a foot.

Didn't say that. I even asked beachnut1 if he was predicting prices to go down, hence the phishing in the $300's /sf.

I bet the Joe house on crossvine circle could be had in the mid 300's per foot. On the market for 391 per foot now. Two others on the market under 400- one for 390 as well and one for 375.

Never know until you throw an offer at them. Just write it on the back of your business card.

I know someone who will sell you a real cheap lot in WC, on the east side of hwy 395, and you could build on it. Of course, if you dig about 8" down, you'll hit watery soil.

Just checked the listings and surprise, surprise, there are five listed in WC under $400/sf. You can even by a pre-construction one priced at $337/sf. There you go.

So there you go!!

Joe - Have evidence. Anyone who wants a home in the 320-325/sq ft range in Phase 2 or 3 email me and I can tell them of at least two. The current asking price is several hundred thousand over this currently, but I know firsthand what they are willing to accept. I am not a realitor, just a very recent buyer.

I'm not predicting anything, but I do know that some of these homes cannot be re-built for this price on any lot in Watercolor. How long can the market stay irrational like this? Longer than the owners can stay solvent unfortunately - remember LTCM? at the end of the day, markets did converge, but the owners werent able to stay solvent to see that day.

Currently a savvy buyer can buy an existing home in Watercolor cheaper than they can buy a lot and build on it, pick a lot any lot. Eventually these price must converge and correlate, but they do not now. The market is irrational which creates buying opportunites for existing homes.

This principle does NOT apply to condos, price convergence is irrelevant because the average buyer cannot go out and built a condo.

Some sellers are currently willing to sell for a loss, but your going to have a hard time getting a builder to build on any lot for a loss down the road so If your waiting for CNN to tell you that the bottom has hit, you will be 12 months behind the curve.

Joe - Have evidence. Anyone who wants a home in the 320-325/sq ft range in Phase 2 or 3 email me and I can tell them of at least two. The current asking price is several hundred thousand over this currently, but I know firsthand what they are willing to accept. I am not a realitor, just a very recent buyer.

I'm not predicting anything, but I do know that some of these homes cannot be re-built for this price on any lot in Watercolor. How long can the market stay irrational like this? Longer than the owners can stay solvent unfortunately - remember LTCM? at the end of the day, markets did converge, but the owners werent able to stay solvent to see that day.

Currently a savvy buyer can buy an existing home in Watercolor cheaper than they can buy a lot and build on it, pick a lot any lot. Eventually these price must converge and correlate, but they do not now. The market is irrational which creates buying opportunites for existing homes.

This principle does NOT apply to condos, price convergence is irrelevant because the average buyer cannot go out and built a condo.

Some sellers are currently willing to sell for a loss, but your going to have a hard time getting a builder to build on any lot for a loss down the road so If your waiting for CNN to tell you that the bottom has hit, you will be 12 months behind the curve.

Your post assumes that the cost of construction does not fall and that the cost of lots doesn't fall. In actuality, the cost of construction is falling due to slackening demand for labor and materials. In addition, the price of lots has been falling for a couple of years now with no end in sight. If prices of lots and the cost of construction continue to fall, it will still be cheaper to build than to buy a resale. Finally, only a small fraction of the homes for sale in Watercolor, Watersound, Rosemary, etc. are priced below what it would currently take to buy a lot and build your own home. Most are priced well above replacement cost.

Yes, labor costs have come down 25% because contractors need the work, but material costs continue to go up. Lot prices are almost back to original Joe release price when you cost adjust them for inflation. So Your saying there's more pressure on lots and labor costs moving those prices down further, then there is to have a existing house sell for cheaper than it can currently be rebuilt.

I disagree with you. Even if your assume you can buy a lot today in the 100k price range, which you cannot, its still cheaper to buy an existing home. NOT all existing homes, but the ones priced aggressively

Yes, labor costs have come down 25% because contractors need the work, but material costs continue to go up. Lot prices are almost back to original Joe release price when you cost adjust them for inflation. So Your saying there's more pressure on lots and labor costs moving those prices down further, then there is to have a existing house sell for cheaper than it can currently be rebuilt.

I disagree with you. Even if your assume you can buy a lot today in the 100k price range, which you cannot, its still cheaper to buy an existing home. NOT all existing homes, but the ones priced aggressively

If you are talking about the select few homes that are at or nearing foreclosure in Watercolor, you are correct. But, we are only talking about 4 or 5 homes out of 135 for sale.

On a broader basis, its still cheaper to buy a lot and then build than to buy a resale or new construction. Although there have been a few fire sales, most of the homes being sold in WC are going for well over $400 per square foot and some are over $500 per square foot (most recent two closings were at $564 and $620 per square foot). My contractor friends actually tell me that the cost of lumber, concrete and other materials are falling. So, longer term, it should still be cheaper to build (in general excluding fire sales). That said, building is also a major hassle, so many people are willing to pay a premium to buy a resale.

MLS 477188 just closed at $318 sq ft.

and 72 Thicket Cir went under contract today, list price at $849,000. This is the one which is located next to 62 Thicket Cir, which went to auction unsold. I bet it didn't go for less than around $400/sf since it was one of the least expensive homes listed in WaterColor.

MLS 477188 just closed at $318 sq ft.

Can you post the MLS listing for it please?

http://ecarmls.com/EmeraldReports/L...qimZg&footer=5157525269&maillog_id=9312138257

This ID's me but that's OK.

Thank you! I was wanting to see if it was a St. Joe firesale etc. because that number was crazy to me.

The notation I was looking for was: "Please do not use as a comp, this was a low sale from builder inventory."

BIG OUCH, it sold for $120 a square foot LESS than the listing price.

http://ecarmls.com/EmeraldReports/L...qimZg&footer=5157525269&maillog_id=9312138257

This ID's me but that's OK.

Interesting note: "Please do not use as a comp, this was a low sale from builder's inventory." :roll:

J & T Investments is the builder--not! Can't believe they're still trying to manipulate the market...tsk, tsk, tsk.

(Contrats on your sale though.)

Actually, this was not my contract. I just keep up with happenings. Not my note either. I believe that some folks may say that it could certainly be used as a comp.

I am sure that people will or will not want to use it as a comp depending which side they are on, and other sellers are now saying "Thank you St. Joe, may I have another!"

Based on my math, they built that house for $31.70 a sqr ft. after you take out the lot costs.