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Panama City, Florida Real Estate Market Continues to Show Improvement


Florida Association of Realtors? (FAR) releases monthly home/condo resales data

Panama City, Florida, October 24, 2007
The Florida Association of REALTORS? (FAR) today releases home and condo resales numbers for September, 2007 and Panama City places best in the state for overall percentage of change in sales of existing single family homes, while second best in the state for overall percentage of change in sales of existing condos.
The median price for detached, existing single-family homes in Panama City is down by 9 percent compared to September 2006, about average for the entire state, while the median price for existing condos is down 5 percent, once again closely following the state average.
According to the data, Panama City places second only to Ft. Walton Beach in percentage of change for existing condominium sales in Florida. A 19 percent increase in condo resales in Panama City over September 2006 measures up favorably against an overall statewide decrease of 37 percent, due in part to a 5 percent correction in Panama City condominium prices, providing incentive to buyers.
Bay County Association of REALTORS? president Scott Bowman points to public awareness campaigns, educating home buyers that now is the best time to invest in real estate, and executed in Panama City, Sarasota and Pensacola, areas showing some of the most positive sales data in the state.
The Panama City/Bay County area continues to see aggressive retail and commercial development, indicating a high degree of optimism for long-term sustainable growth from investors. CNN and other news sources observe that Panama City will possibly see as much as a seventy two percent increase in home prices over the next five years, with as large as a twelve percent growth in population and as much as a thirty percent rise in per capita income.

Bobby J,

To give context to the BOR press release, can you tell us what the pure resale condo numbers for Bay County were in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007? For example, if there were 250 resales in 2004 and only 10 resales in 2006, then a 20% increase in 2007 versus 2006 would be meaningless. Also, what do the YEAR TO DATE condo resale numbers look like in Bay County versus 2006?

It always helps to see the big picture when trying to interpret a snippet of info from a Board of Realtors press release.

Bobby J,

To give context to the BOR press release, can you tell us what the pure resale condo numbers for Bay County were in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007? For example, if there were 250 resales in 2004 and only 10 resales in 2006, then a 20% increase in 2007 versus 2006 would be meaningless. Also, what do the YEAR TO DATE condo resale numbers look like in Bay County versus 2006?

It always helps to see the big picture when trying to interpret a snippet of info from a Board of Realtors press release.

Good point. I will see if I can get someone to get you those numbers. I am just a pretty face. Actually, my partner specializes in stats. I will see if she can find time to pull this info for you. We remain rather busy during this RE cycle. I guess as many folks trying to get out, many are still trying to get in. For the right price....;-)

Here's another point of view from an Oct 22 News Herald article about Panama City Condos :

http://www.newsherald.com/headlines/article.display.php?a=4028


Excerpt:

The growing glut

The result has been a glut of condo units for sale that will continue to get larger as a secondary “bow wave” of projects launched in the past two years reaches completion.

In mid-September, veteran Beach Realtor Mary Jane Shields said of 3,142 entries in the area’s multiple listing service, 2,247 of them — or 72 percent — were high-rise resort condo or town house units. That figure is expected to continue rising even higher during the next five years, other experts warn.

In “A State of the Beach Report” on housing construction issued last March, Regions Bank intern Steve Stokes found the combined inventory of hotel rooms and condo/town house units on the “island” was projected to more than triple from 15,573 in January 2007 to 46,869 by the end of 2012. That total includes 2,433 units projected to come on the market this year and another 2,102 in 2008.

Cruel economics

The reversal from a seller’s to a buyer’s market has not only hurt sales, Portman (real estate broker and appraiser Sam Portman, who specializes in the Panama City Beach market) and other experts said. The glut of new condos also has depressed rental fees for existing units. That might be a boon to tourists, but it is an additional source of pain to owners who budgeted their investment on the premise that a condo unit would generate a healthy rental income to cover a large share of the mortgage, utility bills and other costs.

In a survey of tourism rentals at the Beach during 2005-06, the Haas Center for Business Research and Development at the University of West Florida found that average rental rates had peaked at $190 per night in June 2005 but fell to about $160 per night the same month in 2006. Adding a projected 4,535 new rental units to the Beach inventory by the end of 2008 “could certainly lead to an extended price war” along the beachfront, Stokes noted in the Regions Bank study.

Portman provided an economic model based on one of his investor clients to illustrate how the Beach’s condo market slump can turn what seemed a no-lose investment into a financial ball and chain around a buyer’s ankle.

Two years ago, Portman’s investor signed a pre-construction contract at Laketown Wharf for a $350,000, three-bedroom and two-bath unit. Under typical terms, he made a down payment deposit of $75,000 and planned to obtain a mortgage for the remaining $275,000 and another $20,000 for furniture and appliances.

Today, with Laketown Wharf closings tentatively slated for November, the investor faces a hard decision, Portman said. At closing, the buyer will come into possession of a $350,000 condo that in the current market is worth only $315,000 at best — and that is before the monthly cost of ownership.

Assuming a 6.5-percent mortgage rate, monthly expenses for the unit would average $1,548 for principal and interest, and another $1,040 for utilities and insurance, totaling $2,588, Portman said. Offsetting those expenses would be an estimated $1,666 in monthly rental income, requiring the owner to fork over another $900 to $1,000 per month to cover those expenses.

Using a variety of assumptions involving debt structure, real estate commissions and other variables, Portman calculated eight scenarios for the condo unit’s value over a five-year period. In only one of the eight pathways did the condo’s value exceed the owner’s investment after five years. In the other seven scenarios, the owner’s investment ranged from $44,000 to $166,000 in negative value after five years.

Portman said his client has decided the best option is to walk away from the deal, forfeiting the down payment. The client declined to be interviewed, but Portman quoted him as saying, “Why buy off the beach when you can buy on the beach for the same money?”


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According to the data, Panama City places second only to Ft. Walton Beach in percentage of change for existing condominium sales in Florida. A 19 percent increase in condo resales in Panama City over September 2006 measures up favorably against an overall statewide decrease of 37 percent, due in part to a 5 percent correction in Panama City condominium prices, providing incentive to buyers

Panama City Condo Exisiting

Sep 2007 Sales: 38
Sep 2006 Sales: 32
% Change: 19

Sep 2007 Price: $250,000
Sep 2006 Price: $262,500
% Change: -5


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Panama City Condo Exisiting

Sep 2007 Sales: 38
Sep 2006 Sales: 32
% Change: 19


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Exactly my point. "A 19% increase in condo sales" sure sounds a lot better than "there were 6 more condos sold in Bay County in 2007 versus the same period in 2006."

Panama City Condo Exisiting

Sep 2007 Sales: 38
Sep 2006 Sales: 32
% Change: 19

Sep 2007 Price: $250,000
Sep 2006 Price: $262,500
% Change: -5


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Shelly,
Where did you get your info? I come up with:
Sep 2007 Sales: 60
Sep 2006 Sales: 57

This is from the PC MLS.

Shelly,
Where did you get your info? I come up with:
Sep 2007 Sales: 60
Sep 2006 Sales: 57

This is from the PC MLS.

Info from FAR press release:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071024/clw009.html?.v=101

Scroll down to existing condo sales, Panama City Beach.


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Shelly,
Where did you get your info? I come up with:
Sep 2007 Sales: 60
Sep 2006 Sales: 57

This is from the PC MLS.

Bobby,

Your numbers don't jive with the press release which stated that there was a 19% increase in sales--your numbers only show an increase of 5%. Shellys' numbers seem to be in line with the press release quote of 19%. Maybe the MLS numbers aren't accurate.

FAR website with data...

http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.htm

Scroll down to bottom... click 2007 September condo sales... compares to September 06 in the data... matches with the article...

Fun info on there... Unfortunetly they do not have condo sales data for year end prior to 2005...

FAR website with data...

http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.htm

Scroll down to bottom... click 2007 September condo sales... compares to September 06 in the data... matches with the article...

Fun info on there... Unfortunetly they do not have condo sales data for year end prior to 2005...

Yes there is..."Downloadable existing home sale statistics"...on the right...back to 1994

Bobby,

Your numbers don't jive with the press release which stated that there was a 19% increase in sales--your numbers only show an increase of 5%. Shellys' numbers seem to be in line with the press release quote of 19%. Maybe the MLS numbers aren't accurate.

This is why I asked...Where? I pulled it from the MLS and was wondering.... MLS could be wrong.

Shelly,
Where did you get your info? I come up with:
Sep 2007 Sales: 60
Sep 2006 Sales: 57

This is from the PC MLS.

Don't have much time but
I thought maybe Shelly was using beach condos and Bobby was doing all of PC but the stats are the same so looks like all condos sold were on the beach. Don't know why shelly's are so low but

The stats function of the MLS show:

For all of Panama City
Sept 2007 Total sold = 61
Sept 2006 Total sold = 57

Ran Sept 2007 sales for condos which had been under contract 40 days or less to eliminate precons and came up with 35 so it looks like Bobby's data includes precons that closed in Sept 2007 and Shelly's includes only new contracts that closed.

So both are correct but I do prefer looking at those that are new contracts because precons went under contract when the market was stronger and HAD to close them in September.

Don't have much time but
I thought maybe Shelly was using beach condos and Bobby was doing all of PC but the stats are the same so looks like all condos sold were on the beach. Don't know why shelly's are so low

They're not my stats....they're from the Florida Asssociation of Realtors--would FAR lie???? :shock::roll:


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They're not my stats....they're from the Florida Asssociation of Realtors--would FAR lie???? :shock::roll:


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Nope

Nope

Check and mate lol..

Don't have much time but
I thought maybe Shelly was using beach condos and Bobby was doing all of PC but the stats are the same so looks like all condos sold were on the beach. Don't know why shelly's are so low but

The stats function of the MLS show:

For all of Panama City
Sept 2007 Total sold = 61
Sept 2006 Total sold = 57

Ran Sept 2007 sales for condos which had been under contract 40 days or less to eliminate precons and came up with 35 so it looks like Bobby's data includes precons that closed in Sept 2007 and Shelly's includes only new contracts that closed.

So both are correct but I do prefer looking at those that are new contracts because precons went under contract when the market was stronger and HAD to close them in September.

Only Shelly's numbers are correct when looking at them in context of the press release cited by Bobby. If you read the press release, FAR is talking only about condo RESALES not all condo sales.

I get daily emails on new listings and price changes for PCB condos. The condo prices appear to be dropping at an accelerated rate and all the new buildings are hitting new lows in asking prices.

And still very little is selling. All this with several thousand new condos coming on line in the next year.

We may be entering the final price capitulation in PCB. The final bust that follows some real estate booms.

JMHO
Flyguy

I get daily emails on new listings and price changes for PCB condos. The condo prices appear to be dropping at an accelerated rate and all the new buildings are hitting new lows in asking prices.

And still very little is selling. All this with several thousand new condos coming on line in the next year.

We may be entering the final price capitulation in PCB. The final bust that follows some real estate booms.


JMHO
Flyguy

:roll:


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