Reading threads a few years back you see very few people with the courage to voice pessimistic views of the real estate outlook in South Walton. They received scathing responses. Today these people look like oracles. I applaud the dissidents who through careful analysis of the market, not hope or any other irrationality, knew it was and still is falling substantially.
Real estate as an asset class doesn?t turn around in 1-2 years as so many people on these boards purport. Cycles typically run 8-10 years or more. For the next 2 years you will see prices decline as much as 50% off current levels, then flat or gains of 1-3% over the next decade (factoring inflation you will have net losses).
Look at the current institutional community. The last 10 years saw a very large runup of investment allocated to R.E., today you can?t find a CIO who isn?t quickly reducing exposure to R.E. and reallocating into different asset class such as fixed income, private equity or traditionals.
You ask, what does the institutional community have to do with me Joe Citizen? If you study the market over long periods, let?s say 30 years, the residential market trails the institutions by 12 ? 18 months and follows the trend line quite remarkably.
Analyzing macroeconomic factors such as defaults in subprimes and now Alt-a?s looming, plus microeconomic factors such as higher insurance, taxes, etc?you see significant losses and erosion of value in real estate over the next 5 to 10 years. Bernanke will try to stave off the hemorrhaging real estate market with adjustments to the money supply but the bubble will burst and burst louder than tech in 2000.
We have had a second home in 30-a since the early 80?s and have heard varying degree?s of commentary on the market but nothing like the current optimistic dogma being spewed today. The reason I posted is to address those giving investment advice to home owners like ?hold on? and ?weather the storm.? You are doing a great disservice to the average home owner (Unless they are prepared to hold on for 10 years).
For those of you that disagree, let?s revisit this post at the end of ?07, ?08 and ?09. The data will speak for itself.
Replies
234Banned
I agree Joe Momma and he's driving your car. Joe momma this is SJ and my feud so stay back over there with the rest of the Realtors.
SJ, where do you get off saying I am making a public mockery of my Realtor? It is my opinion that most of you do not have the ability to sell property. I am in no way singling out my own Realtor. It is apparent that you can sell during a boom,but let you have to sell during a depressed time and it becomes apparent that problems start popping up very quickly.
Let me state this as clearly as I can; I am no pinch to sell my property on the beach,and I am defiantly in no rush to sell my property in Red Bay.
I have never singled out my Realtor,but you need only to see my Dad's back deck to know that someone was not a photographer who took that picture. You want to criticize my statement; well, go look at the back deck of his house and ask yourself as a Realtor,would you be satisfied with that picture?
Stop putting words into my mouth. I speak well enough that I believe you were following me.
I hope all these realtors are not cry babbies too.
SJ, where do you get off saying I am making a public mockery of my Realtor? It is my opinion that most of you do not have the ability to sell property. I am in no way singling out my own Realtor. It is apparent that you can sell during a boom,but let you have to sell during a depressed time and it becomes apparent that problems start popping up very quickly.
Let me state this as clearly as I can; I am no pinch to sell my property on the beach,and I am defiantly in no rush to sell my property in Red Bay.
I have never singled out my Realtor,but you need only to see my Dad's back deck to know that someone was not a photographer who took that picture. You want to criticize my statement; well, go look at the back deck of his house and ask yourself as a Realtor,would you be satisfied with that picture?
Stop putting words into my mouth. I speak well enough that I believe you were following me.
I hope all these realtors are not cry babbies too.
Edited
SoWal Expert
It's not my job to criticize your Realtor's choice of photographs. What I have repeatedly stated to you is, stop telling us how dissatisfied you are with your Realtors' choice for photos, and tell your Realtors, the only two people who can change that for you.
SoWal Expert
its my belief that many Realtors are depressing the market by continuing to artificially lowering the prices of area real estateThis statement says much about your grasp of economics.
Edited
Banned
Joe, I don't wont you or anyone else criticizing my Realtor. From talking to him in the past they seem to be right on track with 90% of all Realtors that I have come across in this area.
If this criticism does not apply to you as a Realtor then disregard, but if it does be assured that it is being seen by many homeowners.
Don't you see that your profession is being challenged by Auctioneers? Can you imagine during the boom of 03 that an auctioneer would play any part of this Realtor market?
It's not ugly criticism. In a depressed market a Realtor has to step up not give up. I acquired more information which I choose not to disclose quite yet about another Realtor I spoke with today on a different piece of property that I was looking at to purchase.
The comment made to me by a friend in my vehicle went something like this, Damn I glad that guy is not selling my property.
These comments are not meant to hurt feelings, but rather stir debate over the way property in this area is being marketed by all Realtors not just mine.
Is this a wrong thing to do? To constantly self critique our selves. It is hard for me to understand so many out there taking things said personally.
You as a Realtor know what your doing. And many homeowners do also.
Are you stepping up or giving up?
If this criticism does not apply to you as a Realtor then disregard, but if it does be assured that it is being seen by many homeowners.
Don't you see that your profession is being challenged by Auctioneers? Can you imagine during the boom of 03 that an auctioneer would play any part of this Realtor market?
It's not ugly criticism. In a depressed market a Realtor has to step up not give up. I acquired more information which I choose not to disclose quite yet about another Realtor I spoke with today on a different piece of property that I was looking at to purchase.
The comment made to me by a friend in my vehicle went something like this, Damn I glad that guy is not selling my property.
These comments are not meant to hurt feelings, but rather stir debate over the way property in this area is being marketed by all Realtors not just mine.
Is this a wrong thing to do? To constantly self critique our selves. It is hard for me to understand so many out there taking things said personally.
You as a Realtor know what your doing. And many homeowners do also.
Are you stepping up or giving up?
Edited
SoWal Expert
Joe, I don't wont you or anyone else criticizing my Realtor. From talking to him in the past they seem to be right on track with 90% of all Realtors that I have come across in this area.I have not once criticized your Realtors, but I did inform them of the crap you have posted about them on these boards.
If this criticism does not apply to you as a Realtor then disregard, but if it does be assured that it is being seen by many homeowners.
Don't you see that your profession is being challenged by Auctioneers? Can you imagine during the boom of 03 that an auctioneer would play any part of this Realtor market?
It's not ugly criticism. In a depressed market a Realtor has to step up not give up. I acquired more information which I choose not to disclose quite yet about another Realtor I spoke with today on a different piece of property that I was looking at to purchase.
The comment made to me by a friend in my vehicle went something like this, Damn I glad that guy is not selling my property.
These comments are not meant to hurt feelings, but rather stir debate over the way property in this area is being marketed by all Realtors not just mine.
Is this a wrong thing to do? To constantly self critique our selves. It is hard for me to understand so many out there taking things said personally.
You as a Realtor know what your doing. And many homeowners do also.
Are you stepping up or giving up?
As for my profession being challenged by auctioneers, anyone can challenge another's profession, but to actually succeed in doing a better job at it, that is yet to be seen around here. Furthermore, the three active auction companies in this area, are also Realtors. In 2003 the time to which you refer, would have been a great time for auction companies to be in this market. You see, a seller gets more money for their property when there is more than one person trying to buy it. Apparently, you have not been to an auction in the recent year around here, where on a good day, one person shows up to bid.
Self critiquing is probably a great thing for us to do, but you were not doing that when you pointed out the photos in your listing. You were pointing fingers at your Realtors.
Giving up or stepping up? I am very excited about real estate in SoWal. I have been ever since I discovered it, and you might know that if you read my posts.
As for taking it personally, why shouldn't I. You are very accusatory in your ramblings to all Realtors, and being one, I have to step up and call BS on your rant.
Edited
Banned
Question, Did I take the photo's. You are so quick to cry like a little a baby that you fail to take an honest look at your profession.
Is it your belief that your profession,including yourself have stepped up to the challenge of selling properties for your own clients.
My next question is, was it your intent to sabotage my parents from being able to sell their property by going and distorting things that have been said by me on this board about area Realtors.
you have numerous times ask for there names,yet I never one time posted them. Were you fishing in an effort to make it more difficult for them to sell. Never mind me, because I am in no hurry to jump off that bridge. You were constantly trying to take and put the focus on them instead of the area Realtors as a hold.
As one who is not wanting to sell my property and never have stated anything other than that on these post I defy you to show me how I can put someone down when I am not actively trying to sell my property in Red Bay.
Is it your belief that your profession,including yourself have stepped up to the challenge of selling properties for your own clients.
My next question is, was it your intent to sabotage my parents from being able to sell their property by going and distorting things that have been said by me on this board about area Realtors.
you have numerous times ask for there names,yet I never one time posted them. Were you fishing in an effort to make it more difficult for them to sell. Never mind me, because I am in no hurry to jump off that bridge. You were constantly trying to take and put the focus on them instead of the area Realtors as a hold.
As one who is not wanting to sell my property and never have stated anything other than that on these post I defy you to show me how I can put someone down when I am not actively trying to sell my property in Red Bay.
Edited
Banned
So that we have a better understanding of what you did say to them specifically,Be so kind as to let all know what was derogative about them and meant to put them down.
Well, we know I didn't like the pictures that were made of my Dad's property.
But define crap about them if you don't mind.
Because I have never singled them out and your post suggest otherwise , I suggest you clean that statement up quick.
You have on numerous occasions tried to bait me into saying that our conversations were about my present Realtors and on numerous occasions I have stated that I was referring to area Realtors as a hold.
I find this to be a very interesting post that you made and hope you can some how define the phrase crap about my Realtor.
You imply that some how I have contempt for my Realtors and am disparaging them. I have a problem with that statement and advice seriously that you post an apology for that statement ASAP
We are not in joke land no more
Well, we know I didn't like the pictures that were made of my Dad's property.
But define crap about them if you don't mind.
Because I have never singled them out and your post suggest otherwise , I suggest you clean that statement up quick.
You have on numerous occasions tried to bait me into saying that our conversations were about my present Realtors and on numerous occasions I have stated that I was referring to area Realtors as a hold.
I find this to be a very interesting post that you made and hope you can some how define the phrase crap about my Realtor.
You imply that some how I have contempt for my Realtors and am disparaging them. I have a problem with that statement and advice seriously that you post an apology for that statement ASAP
We are not in joke land no more
Edited
SoWal Expert
Announcement: We don't care who took your photos. You do, not us!
I have not once asked for you parents name. Your friend posted the mls number, and it is easy to trace that back to your name, which I have not once posted. I did post the mls number for your property in PCB which you pointed out more than once your Realtor would not share it with you. It is not my intention to post your name on this site. If you wanted on the site, you would sign it yourself, and I respect that. So you are dreaming up words that I say.
Wrong again on the account that I have sabbotaged the sale of your property. The price and property will affect sale of it, but I won't. I will remind you that you stating that you are "not actively trying to sell your property in Red Bay," you are sabbotaging the sale of your own property, which is actively listed.
As for what I told your Realtors, I told them to come read your posts on SoWal.com/bb and they can see for themselves.
Example of you talking crap about your Realtors: you said that if you were really trying to sell your property, you wouldn't use those pictures that your Realtors used, insinuating that they and 90% of Realtors do a poor job.
You never mentioned your Realtors' name and in one post, you specifically stated that you didn't want to point fingers at them, but then you followed that statement with one like, if you were trying to sell your property, you would use other pictures. Most anyone can look up your property based on the info you and your friend gave, and anyone who does that can see the names of your Realtors. Also, as I've said before, when you talk about Realtors as a group, rather than individuals, you might as well be pointing roughly 3200 fingers down here in our area. Instead of only a few of us defending ourselves, there should be 3200+ defending ourselves against your remarks. I guess the rest of them are a little smarter than me.
Keep waiting for the apology, but you won't be seeing one from me based on my statements thus far.
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I have not once asked for you parents name. Your friend posted the mls number, and it is easy to trace that back to your name, which I have not once posted. I did post the mls number for your property in PCB which you pointed out more than once your Realtor would not share it with you. It is not my intention to post your name on this site. If you wanted on the site, you would sign it yourself, and I respect that. So you are dreaming up words that I say.
Wrong again on the account that I have sabbotaged the sale of your property. The price and property will affect sale of it, but I won't. I will remind you that you stating that you are "not actively trying to sell your property in Red Bay," you are sabbotaging the sale of your own property, which is actively listed.
As for what I told your Realtors, I told them to come read your posts on SoWal.com/bb and they can see for themselves.
Example of you talking crap about your Realtors: you said that if you were really trying to sell your property, you wouldn't use those pictures that your Realtors used, insinuating that they and 90% of Realtors do a poor job.
You never mentioned your Realtors' name and in one post, you specifically stated that you didn't want to point fingers at them, but then you followed that statement with one like, if you were trying to sell your property, you would use other pictures. Most anyone can look up your property based on the info you and your friend gave, and anyone who does that can see the names of your Realtors. Also, as I've said before, when you talk about Realtors as a group, rather than individuals, you might as well be pointing roughly 3200 fingers down here in our area. Instead of only a few of us defending ourselves, there should be 3200+ defending ourselves against your remarks. I guess the rest of them are a little smarter than me.
Keep waiting for the apology, but you won't be seeing one from me based on my statements thus far.
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SoWal Expert
What is up with all of these frogs?
Beach Fanatic
2Bfabian,
I am curious what you would consider a good job by an agent. You still have never answered the question of what someone is supposed to do that has to sell. I think you said the auction block (BTW, auctions would do better in a sellers market.) Is that your answer? If it is, I must know what you think an agents job is?
I am curious what you would consider a good job by an agent. You still have never answered the question of what someone is supposed to do that has to sell. I think you said the auction block (BTW, auctions would do better in a sellers market.) Is that your answer? If it is, I must know what you think an agents job is?
Banned
Shelly, you always have me looking at the bright side of things. As far as during the Frenzy, I believe I had a legitimate offer of $425,000. I felt then as now it is worth more. I defy anyone on Grand Lagoon to show me he or she has a better view than me. As far as my present Realtor I want to give him the benefit of the doubt,because he has just recently listed my property. My problem is with many Realtors in general and is in no way focused on those who are doing a great job.
in answering Shelly's question I stated I did not know my mils# but what else did I say "As far as my present Realtor I want to give him the benefit of the doubt,because he has just recently listed my property. Now I could have told you,he had just listed it for I think two or three days when I posted this statement,but why I had already told you i was not referring to him
I constantly tried to state that my problems were Realtors in general,yet you kept trying to bait the trap that I was referring to my present Realtor.
You made a statement which has me wondering when you did first talk to my Realtor. people who list there property for 90 days in most cases can be considered not serious about selling their property.
It is my belief you mention family feuding and shooting to in someway get me to talk about the red bay property. Well,as far as I know my family's bonds are as strong as any that I have seen and if you were to have read my red bay thread I stated in there that I was attempting to help my family sell seeing as my dad was coming down with Alzheimer's.
I felt then and I feel now this was an insult yet I didn't say anything I choose to think you were just ignorant to what families with this disease go through.
On many of these post, I have chosen to stir up the pot and promote dialog but here we are and I'm definitely not playing with
you right now . And would love to discuss this further if we every shall meet.
Edited
SoWal Expert
Why don't yall just kiss and make up. Enough already.
SoWal Expert
Shelly, you always have me looking at the bright side of things. As far as during the Frenzy, I believe I had a legitimate offer of $425,000. I felt then as now it is worth more. I defy anyone on Grand Lagoon to show me he or she has a better view than me. As far as my present Realtor I want to give him the benefit of the doubt,because he has just recently listed my property. My problem is with many Realtors in general and is in no way focused on those who are doing a great job.
I constantly tried to state that my problems were Realtors in general,yet you kept trying to bait the trap that I was referring to my present Realtor.
Like I said, you mentioned several times that your Realtors did not do a good job of selecting photos (read between the lines and recognize that in this statement, you are suggesting that they are not "those who are doing a great job," and thus by default, would be lumped in with the Realtors in general whom you are talking about.
You made a statement which has me wondering when you did first talk to my Realtor. people who list there property for 90 days in most cases can be considered not serious about selling their property.Tell that to the many sellers who are trying to sell. For you to make that bold statement, you don't know much about sellers of real estate.
It is my belief you mention family feuding and shooting to in someway get me to talk about the red bay property. Well,as far as I know my family's bonds are as strong as any that I have seen and if you were to have read my red bay thread I stated in there that I was attempting to help my family sell seeing as my dad was coming down with Alzheimer's.
I mentioned that after you said that you didn't want just anyone living next door to you. I said that if you moved onto your Red Bay property, you wouldn't have to worry about your neighbors (since you say you have 20-40 acres), unless someone family fueding and shooting was going on. Again, the property records show many of your family's last name as the owners of surrounding property.
On many of these post, I have chosen to stir up the pot and promote dialog but here we are and I definitely not playing withStir the pot, yes. Start dialog, no -- just arguments. It was you who stated that arguing makes us learn. Still not true.
you right now . And would love to discuss this further if we every shall meet.
Beach Fanatic
Have I taken a crazy pill...:blink:
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