Reading threads a few years back you see very few people with the courage to voice pessimistic views of the real estate outlook in South Walton. They received scathing responses. Today these people look like oracles. I applaud the dissidents who through careful analysis of the market, not hope or any other irrationality, knew it was and still is falling substantially.
Real estate as an asset class doesn?t turn around in 1-2 years as so many people on these boards purport. Cycles typically run 8-10 years or more. For the next 2 years you will see prices decline as much as 50% off current levels, then flat or gains of 1-3% over the next decade (factoring inflation you will have net losses).
Look at the current institutional community. The last 10 years saw a very large runup of investment allocated to R.E., today you can?t find a CIO who isn?t quickly reducing exposure to R.E. and reallocating into different asset class such as fixed income, private equity or traditionals.
You ask, what does the institutional community have to do with me Joe Citizen? If you study the market over long periods, let?s say 30 years, the residential market trails the institutions by 12 ? 18 months and follows the trend line quite remarkably.
Analyzing macroeconomic factors such as defaults in subprimes and now Alt-a?s looming, plus microeconomic factors such as higher insurance, taxes, etc?you see significant losses and erosion of value in real estate over the next 5 to 10 years. Bernanke will try to stave off the hemorrhaging real estate market with adjustments to the money supply but the bubble will burst and burst louder than tech in 2000.
We have had a second home in 30-a since the early 80?s and have heard varying degree?s of commentary on the market but nothing like the current optimistic dogma being spewed today. The reason I posted is to address those giving investment advice to home owners like ?hold on? and ?weather the storm.? You are doing a great disservice to the average home owner (Unless they are prepared to hold on for 10 years).
For those of you that disagree, let?s revisit this post at the end of ?07, ?08 and ?09. The data will speak for itself.
Replies
234Beach Fanatic
I just read this thread top to bottom - WOW! Thanks to all for enlightened and entertaining posts. Made for fascinating lunch hour reading.
Banned
No, it's we who thank you. In the words of that great prognosticator STOP DROPPING YOUR PRICES. Other wise put up a sign and say just make offer I'm desperate and will give this place away. For two years people have been dropping there prices and all it is doing is sending the market into a nose dive. Has the market change? Nope. Hold to them or home owner beware it will not stop until your giving your stuff away. We all have what others want but we forget because we have lived here so long and we become complacent. I live right on grand lagoon but most of the time I leave my shutters down and forget to sit on my back porch and watch the pelicans dive bomb the bait fish. Trust me those baby boomer's are coming to FL and they will want your place worse than you want to sell it,but if you or your neighbor is going to give it away they will do just like you would and wait. Without referring to anyone as a fool they do say a fool and his possessions are soon separated. :cool:
Banned
No, it's we who thank you. In the words of that great prognosticator STOP DROPPING YOUR PRICES. Other wise put up a sign and say just make offer I'm desperate and will give this place away. For two years people have been dropping there prices and all it is doing is sending the market into a nose dive. Has the market change? Nope. Hold to them or home owner beware it will not stop until your giving your stuff away. We all have what others want but we forget because we have lived here so long and we become complacent. I live right on grand lagoon but most of the time I leave my shutters down and forget to sit on my back porch and watch the pelicans dive bomb the bait fish. Trust me those baby boomer's are coming to FL and they will want your place worse than you want to sell it,but if you or your neighbor is going to give it away they will do just like you would and wait. Without referring to anyone as a fool they do say a fool and his possessions are soon separated. :cool:
Why can't we be friends?
Beach Fanatic
No, it's we who thank you. In the words of that great prognosticator STOP DROPPING YOUR PRICES. Other wise put up a sign and say just make offer I'm desperate and will give this place away. For two years people have been dropping there prices and all it is doing is sending the market into a nose dive. Has the market change? Nope. Hold to them or home owner beware it will not stop until your giving your stuff away. We all have what others want but we forget because we have lived here so long and we become complacent. I live right on grand lagoon but most of the time I leave my shutters down and forget to sit on my back porch and watch the pelicans dive bomb the bait fish. Trust me those baby boomer's are coming to FL and they will want your place worse than you want to sell it,but if you or your neighbor is going to give it away they will do just like you would and wait. Without referring to anyone as a fool they do say a fool and his possessions are soon separated. :cool:
This is all great in theory but I still ask you what do the folks do that have to sell! Now! Not when the baby boomers get her. Now!
SoWal Expert
This is all great in theory but I still ask you what do the folks do that have to sell! Now! Not when the baby boomers get her. Now!Bobby J, I thought fabian explained it very clearly. To sell your listings, you "stick to your guns." (and wait a few years I guess).
Banned
ouch! OK, if it's all about price then let's go with that, as any argument let's be consistent. Why not try to help the seller by getting him or her to sell by owner on the web and drop the price lets say 6%,so that a house selling for $900,000 could drop $54,000 pay the lawyer to draw up paper worker, abstract,title insurance and so on,give him $2,000 for his couple hours of work and allow the homeowner not to take that hit but rather the Realtor. You do know this is coming next. I went and looked at purchasing a advertisement into one of the Realtor magazines and was told no can do if your not a Realtor so anyone looking for a business tip start a for sale by owner magazine and get lawyers to subscribe places in the magazine to close the deals for home owners. It saves the the home owner which is who I find myself aligned with at the present time. You may give me all these reason of why you are so important to the seller but I say in most cases, not all, its about getting the owner to drop the price. If not then why not a for sale by owner website in Bay and South Walton.
:nono1:
:nono1:
Beach Fanatic
ouch! OK, if it's all about price then let's go with that, as any argument let's be consistent. Why not try to help the seller by getting him or her to sell by owner on the web and drop the price lets say 6%,so that a house selling for $900,000 could drop $54,000 pay the lawyer to draw up paper worker, abstract,title insurance and so on,give him $2,000 for his couple hours of work and allow the homeowner not to take that hit but rather the Realtor. You do know this is coming next. I went and looked at purchasing a advertisement into one of the Realtor magazines and was told no can do if your not a Realtor so anyone looking for a business tip start a for sale by owner magazine and get lawyers to subscribe places in the magazine to close the deals for home owners. It saves the the home owner which is who I find myself aligned with at the present time. You may give me all these reason of why you are so important to the seller but I say in most cases, not all, its about getting the owner to drop the price. If not then why not a for sale by owner website in Bay and South Walton.
:nono1:
I'll say a little prayer for you tonight....
Banned
why can't we be friends?/why can't we be friends?π
SoWal Expert
I believe there is a very thin magazine for FSBO. I've seen them in PCB. Also, there is a national website for FSBO. There is also SoWal.com which has a real estate section as well as a for sale section.
If selling your on property were so easy, everyone would have for sale by owners. Go pay for your own advertising, schedule appointments for showings, fly down to the beach and have the potential buyer not show up, or show up for a four minute tour and decide that they want a condo, not a house, then fly back home. Maybe you will get a contract, and when that happens, I'm sure that you the buyer will be looking to you for information regarding loans, home warranty, etc. and you can fly back down here, to let the home inspector in. Fly back home. Get on SoWal.com and ask for a plumber recommendation to do repair the leaking toilet. Tired of flying back and forth, maybe you find a home sitting business to leave in charge of the key and insure that the plumber actually showed up. In the mean time, the lawyer is getting paid to handle the closing, but who is representing the buyer? Maybe they don't feel comfortable with a lawyer getting involved on only your behalf. Who is holding the escrow funds? Oops, just missed the deadline for financing. Now the buyer is in breach of contract, but since the lawyer is just handling the closing, you let it go and hope that the buyer has financing in place. Some more time passes and you think everything is good to go. You pay the home watch guy, the plumber, the attorney for writing the contract, and you show up at the closing table to find that the buyer no-showed. blah, blah, blah.
Yes, why don't you go ahead and list it yourself.
If selling your on property were so easy, everyone would have for sale by owners. Go pay for your own advertising, schedule appointments for showings, fly down to the beach and have the potential buyer not show up, or show up for a four minute tour and decide that they want a condo, not a house, then fly back home. Maybe you will get a contract, and when that happens, I'm sure that you the buyer will be looking to you for information regarding loans, home warranty, etc. and you can fly back down here, to let the home inspector in. Fly back home. Get on SoWal.com and ask for a plumber recommendation to do repair the leaking toilet. Tired of flying back and forth, maybe you find a home sitting business to leave in charge of the key and insure that the plumber actually showed up. In the mean time, the lawyer is getting paid to handle the closing, but who is representing the buyer? Maybe they don't feel comfortable with a lawyer getting involved on only your behalf. Who is holding the escrow funds? Oops, just missed the deadline for financing. Now the buyer is in breach of contract, but since the lawyer is just handling the closing, you let it go and hope that the buyer has financing in place. Some more time passes and you think everything is good to go. You pay the home watch guy, the plumber, the attorney for writing the contract, and you show up at the closing table to find that the buyer no-showed. blah, blah, blah.
Yes, why don't you go ahead and list it yourself.
SoWal Expert
why can't we be friends?/why can't we be friends?πIf you want everyone to side with you, you may be looking in the wrong place. Opinions are like ... , everybody has one. If we all had the same thoughts at the same time regarding anything, no transaction would ever take place because we would all want to buy the same house at the same time and no one would be left to sell it to us.
Banned
I can always count on you Joe to keep on the straight and narrow. Yes ,you are correct a good Realtor is invaluable. I do not say this lightly but out of the numerous I have spoken with over the past few years I find it refreshing to see that a very few like yourself are well versed on their profession. I am sincere when I say that about you. I believe if I had a piece of property that I really wanted to sell I would indeed look you up.:cool:
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Banned
Joe, what did you think of my ex son in laws ink sketch of christ being taken off the cross.?
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Banned
Seeing how everyone agrees the market is depressed right now, and many Realtors are calling for lower prices, I can't help but ask if we the seller can get a reduction in the cost of the Realtor to go down to let say 4.5 %. Seems a reasonable request just until the market makes that big turn around thats going to happen in the next 5 years. If that does not work we will try to go lower. Heck, before you know it we will all be broke. I'm not a smart man,and that goes without saying,but I don't think they're reducing the prices of membership to join some of these elite golf courses like pebble hills,or the other golf course where they play the masters at in Ga. When many of you were going to college,I was bouncing around in Europe going and hiking up the alps in Garmish Germany,going to France on the weekends driving up to the North Sea and going to places like Denmark, and Sweden just to name a few of the places I've been. I could right now move to any place in the world, and its my belief that for the most part, the property in this area is the best place to live and is way under priced. If you want cheap then go somewhere else. But don't think if you drop that price it's going to sell because right now the only thing selling is prices that are ridiculously low. There are many reasons for this but I would have to write a book on all the things that are effecting this market and it would just take to long. I get the big picture but you ask yourself right now,what are the only things moving in the market today? THINGS BEING GIVEN AWAY!!!!!!:( Don't hate the messenger.:nono1:
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SoWal Expert
First of all, it would be illegal for Brokers to get together and set prices on brokerage fees. Secondly, you want me to spend more on advertising, do more work marketing the listing, and most likely working with the buyers and sellers more as there tend to be more negotiations and handholding in this down market, yet you want me to cut my rates? Show me another business where that happens. With fewer sales taking place, Realtors incomes have already been greatly slashed. I will remind you that the Listing Agent gets paid only a portion of that brokerage fee, only after the Listing Brokerage, Selling Brokerage (if there is a cooperating broker), and the selling agent, and sometimes an outgoing referral fee are paid. Then, out of what is left, deduct the advertising and other business related expenses for the listing. What you have left is far from what you think Realtors get paid. Also, you may think of a Realtor not spending much time actually working to sell your property, or assist you with purchasing, but you need to think about all of the previous real estate experience the Realtor has invested by writing contracts and holding deals together. What you may see as nothing more than 10 hours worth of work, may be based on 10 years of experience.
SoWal Insider
I could right now move to any place in the world, and its my belief that for the most part, the property in this area is the best place to live and is way under priced. If you want cheap then go somewhere else. But don't think if you drop that price it's going to sell because right now the only thing selling is prices that are ridiculously low. There are many reasons for this but I would have to write a book on all the things that are effecting this market and it would just take to long. I get the big picture but you ask yourself right now,what are the only things moving in the market today? THINGS BEING GIVEN AWAY!!!!!!:( Don't hate the messenger.:nono1:
2b,
I've gotta admit, I'm having a hard time piecing together your story. :confused:
Can you please state plainly in a few sentences just WHAT your problem is? Or just answer the following questions.
(1) Do you have a home/lot for sale?
(2) What type is it and where is it located?
(3) How much are you listing it for?
(4) How much higher is the listing price than the price you originally paid?
(5) How long have you owned the property?
(6) How much is your realtor trying to have you cut the price?
(7) If you are so HOT on area RE and sure it is a great investment, why are you planning on selling it?
.
Banned
π 1.yes
2.Townhouse on grand lagoon. I would give you my mls # but my Realtor has failed to email me it and it is impossible to pull it up on mls.
3.I think you mean giving it away. $349,000
4.Give or take 360
5.12 years
6.150
7.Good question,my wife and I was talking about the same thing yesterday and we concluded it is probably a good idea to hold off and stay put because right now it would almost be insane to sell at that price for the property that we have on Grand lagoon. We were wanting to move out in the country and build a beautiful house on one of our steep heads.
You see Joe not everyone has the benefit of having a Realtor who is both knowledgeable and hard working like yourself. I do not mean to hurt anyones feelings that are out there and like yourself working hard,but the truth is, you are an anomaly. Most in your profession only know how to say go lower, no lower, no even lower. They are nether knowledgeable about the area nor want to be. I can't count the Realtors that I have just called up and ask,How's the real estate market right now? And get an answer like what do you mean? and I say well how are the prices doing? I was thinking about buying but I just wanted to wait until the prices had finished dropping. And God bless them they were so kind as to tell me I may want to wait because the real estate market was still correcting itself. I could go on and on about examples of Realtors who honestly are anything but. Look how people are just sitting back and watching Mr. and Mrs. home owner blow in the wind while many Realtors are just sitting back and not accepting any of the responsibility. Don't take on a listing you can't sell. That more than anything else upsets me the most and list the first time right. Don't keep going back to the home owner and say lower. Its crazy. Know your property and be loyal to your seller, because trust me this is not going on right now. You said something that was indeed true and that is I wasn't going to get much sympathy on this site concerning going up against many Realtors. I understand many of them read these sites to get a feel on how the market is doing locally. My advice to them is nothing. The market will bury them just like many are trying to bury Mr. and Mrs. homeowner. Be careful what you say because little ears are listening. You as a Realtor have to know that many suspected buyers read these post. Do you want them to go a head and wait and pick most of these properties up at an auction. If I were buying and read some of the things that have been said on these post you could not get be to buy now or in the near future.No,I would just wait like everyone else and pick it up for nothing.π Don't hate the messenger.:welcome:
2.Townhouse on grand lagoon. I would give you my mls # but my Realtor has failed to email me it and it is impossible to pull it up on mls.
3.I think you mean giving it away. $349,000
4.Give or take 360
5.12 years
6.150
7.Good question,my wife and I was talking about the same thing yesterday and we concluded it is probably a good idea to hold off and stay put because right now it would almost be insane to sell at that price for the property that we have on Grand lagoon. We were wanting to move out in the country and build a beautiful house on one of our steep heads.
You see Joe not everyone has the benefit of having a Realtor who is both knowledgeable and hard working like yourself. I do not mean to hurt anyones feelings that are out there and like yourself working hard,but the truth is, you are an anomaly. Most in your profession only know how to say go lower, no lower, no even lower. They are nether knowledgeable about the area nor want to be. I can't count the Realtors that I have just called up and ask,How's the real estate market right now? And get an answer like what do you mean? and I say well how are the prices doing? I was thinking about buying but I just wanted to wait until the prices had finished dropping. And God bless them they were so kind as to tell me I may want to wait because the real estate market was still correcting itself. I could go on and on about examples of Realtors who honestly are anything but. Look how people are just sitting back and watching Mr. and Mrs. home owner blow in the wind while many Realtors are just sitting back and not accepting any of the responsibility. Don't take on a listing you can't sell. That more than anything else upsets me the most and list the first time right. Don't keep going back to the home owner and say lower. Its crazy. Know your property and be loyal to your seller, because trust me this is not going on right now. You said something that was indeed true and that is I wasn't going to get much sympathy on this site concerning going up against many Realtors. I understand many of them read these sites to get a feel on how the market is doing locally. My advice to them is nothing. The market will bury them just like many are trying to bury Mr. and Mrs. homeowner. Be careful what you say because little ears are listening. You as a Realtor have to know that many suspected buyers read these post. Do you want them to go a head and wait and pick most of these properties up at an auction. If I were buying and read some of the things that have been said on these post you could not get be to buy now or in the near future.No,I would just wait like everyone else and pick it up for nothing.π Don't hate the messenger.:welcome:
Edited
Beach Fanatic
A couple more points to 2bfabian:
You don't have to pay any realtor any set commission. Negotiate. If a realtor doesn't feel like your offer is fair, he/she won't work with you, just like many realtors here have said they won't take a listing from an unrealistic seller. If you don't like them, find another one. If you want to take a shot at FSBO, go for it.
Your comparison to memberships at The Masters in Augusta is laughable at best and has no correlation whatsoever to someone trying to sell a property at the beach, be it investment property or owner occupied. Each party has 100% different motivation.
Quit blaming other people for doing what they may have to do to get out of a property. Do what suits you. Don't shoot the messenger. :roll:
You don't have to pay any realtor any set commission. Negotiate. If a realtor doesn't feel like your offer is fair, he/she won't work with you, just like many realtors here have said they won't take a listing from an unrealistic seller. If you don't like them, find another one. If you want to take a shot at FSBO, go for it.
Your comparison to memberships at The Masters in Augusta is laughable at best and has no correlation whatsoever to someone trying to sell a property at the beach, be it investment property or owner occupied. Each party has 100% different motivation.
Quit blaming other people for doing what they may have to do to get out of a property. Do what suits you. Don't shoot the messenger. :roll:
SoWal Insider
π 1.yes
2.Townhouse on grand lagoon. I would give you my mls # but my Realtor has failed to email me it and it is impossible to pull it up on mls.
3.I think you mean giving it away. $349,000
4.Give or take 360
5.12 years
6.150
:confused:
You're selling a townhouse for $349,000 that you paid $348,640 for 12 years ago?
OR
You're selling a townhouse for $349,000 that you paid $360,000 for 12 years ago?
Neither makes much sense...am I missing something? (Someone help me out here...the Bloody Mary hasn't kicked in yet.)
Edited
Banned
No, I am selling a townhouse for $349,000 that I paid $90,000 12 years ago. At the time of my purchased many owners thought that I had paid way to much. Not so then and not so now.:cool: Shelly You are always so nice. To the other feller I realize at any time I can renegotiate with my Realtor. That is not my concern. It goes further than that,its my belief that many Realtors are depressing the market by continuing to artificially lowering the prices of area real estate
Ps Don't worry shelly be happy!
Ps Don't worry shelly be happy!
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Christini Zambini
its my belief that many Realtors are depressing the market by continuing to artificially lowering the prices of area real estate
Ps Don't worry shelly be happy!
Wouldn't it be in the best interest of the realtor for properties to sell at the highest possible price so they will get the highest possible commission? Why would they purposely want to deflate the market?
SoWal Insider
No, I am selling a townhouse for $349,000 that I paid $90,000 12 years ago. At the time of my purchased many owners thought that I had paid way to much. Not so then and not so now.:cool: Shelly You are always so nice. To the other feller I realize at any time I can renegotiate with my Realtor. That is not my concern. It goes further than that,its my belief that many Realtors are depressing the market by continuing to artificially lowering the prices of area real estate
Ps Don't worry shelly be happy!
2b,
2 More questions:
(1) How much did you think you could have gotten for your townhouse mid-frenzy (2005).
(2) How many years experience does you current realtor have in the biz?
PS: My biggest worry is that I'll forget the lyrics to Kumbiya
.
Banned
π Absolutely, but the problem lies with Realtors being lost and not knowing how to do anything but say lower,no lower. I feels likes I'm not getten to many of you so I will say this as simple as I can. The Realtor has no problem saying don't lower my commissions because I am already stretched thin. But will come to Mr. homeowner and say wait a minute you bought that place 20 years ago your making enough profit. Now they can't build one for what they want to sell your property for but what the heck thats enough money for you. The point I was making prior about the Golf Memberships is these were places that were exclusive to get into and it is my belief how ever humble that we as owners have a exclusive place to live here and we should not be so quick to give it away. Now I am smart enough to know that almost all Realtors will disagree with me but trust me many home owners are noticing this and may not say anything but they are filing this in the back of there mind and like all things, they will act accordingly. That magazine FSBO may be small now, but give it time and you may see the days of needing a Realtor as we see it today may be days gone by. :welcome:
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Banned
Shelly, you always have me looking at the bright side of things. As far as during the Frenzy, I believe I had a legitimate offer of $425,000. I felt then as now it is worth more. I defy anyone on Grand Lagoon to show me he or she has a better view than me. As far as my present realitor I want to give him the benefit of the doubt,because he has just recently listed my property. My problem is with many realitors in general and is in no way focused on those who are doing a great job. It is my belief I can withstand almost anything, heck I'm 46 years old and have a 28 year old son who lives in Europe, a daughter who is 23 and graduates from FSU(Go Gators)this fall and hopefully will be attending law school next year,and my wife who I have been married to for 26 years is 7 months pregnant. SO BRING ON THE RAINπ
Edited
SoWal Expert
Fabian,
You would love the guy who owns a lot next to one I have listed. We listed it under $120K and his, almost identical lot next door is listed ForSaleByOwner and his price on the sign after over a year of being posted, still reads, "$325,000." I have talked to him before and he states that he doesn't have to sell, but he will if someone will give him the premium price (which no other lots have come close to selling for in that area). Looks like he is holding to his guns, but that certainly isn't selling his lot, but then again, he doesn't need to. On the flipside, my seller, why not having to sell, would like to do so, hence the substantially lower and more realistic asking price.
You would love the guy who owns a lot next to one I have listed. We listed it under $120K and his, almost identical lot next door is listed ForSaleByOwner and his price on the sign after over a year of being posted, still reads, "$325,000." I have talked to him before and he states that he doesn't have to sell, but he will if someone will give him the premium price (which no other lots have come close to selling for in that area). Looks like he is holding to his guns, but that certainly isn't selling his lot, but then again, he doesn't need to. On the flipside, my seller, why not having to sell, would like to do so, hence the substantially lower and more realistic asking price.
Banned
Joe, you may not think so but we do agree. It is my belief you put a realistic price to start with on your neighbors property and therefore are able to avoid continuously lowering your listing price. Do it right the first time and watch the market change. No one is saying that someone who is asking a cazillion dollars for his property is not also hurting things, But many of your counterparts are taking anything they can list and then later on coming back and depressing the market.π
Edited
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