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Misguidance on Real Estate plunge

Beach Crab
37,132 views
Reading threads a few years back you see very few people with the courage to voice pessimistic views of the real estate outlook in South Walton. They received scathing responses. Today these people look like oracles. I applaud the dissidents who through careful analysis of the market, not hope or any other irrationality, knew it was and still is falling substantially.

Real estate as an asset class doesn?t turn around in 1-2 years as so many people on these boards purport. Cycles typically run 8-10 years or more. For the next 2 years you will see prices decline as much as 50% off current levels, then flat or gains of 1-3% over the next decade (factoring inflation you will have net losses).

Look at the current institutional community. The last 10 years saw a very large runup of investment allocated to R.E., today you can?t find a CIO who isn?t quickly reducing exposure to R.E. and reallocating into different asset class such as fixed income, private equity or traditionals.

You ask, what does the institutional community have to do with me Joe Citizen? If you study the market over long periods, let?s say 30 years, the residential market trails the institutions by 12 ? 18 months and follows the trend line quite remarkably.

Analyzing macroeconomic factors such as defaults in subprimes and now Alt-a?s looming, plus microeconomic factors such as higher insurance, taxes, etc?you see significant losses and erosion of value in real estate over the next 5 to 10 years. Bernanke will try to stave off the hemorrhaging real estate market with adjustments to the money supply but the bubble will burst and burst louder than tech in 2000.

We have had a second home in 30-a since the early 80?s and have heard varying degree?s of commentary on the market but nothing like the current optimistic dogma being spewed today. The reason I posted is to address those giving investment advice to home owners like ?hold on? and ?weather the storm.? You are doing a great disservice to the average home owner (Unless they are prepared to hold on for 10 years).

For those of you that disagree, let?s revisit this post at the end of ?07, ?08 and ?09. The data will speak for itself.

Replies

234
Banned
#27
For what ever it's worth,my opinion is people don't buy stock when it's dropping(unless you plan on selling it short). I like to take Mr. buffet's approach to buy, and that is buy for the long haul. I believe many Realtors have shot themselves in the proverbial foot by coming back to the owners and convincing them to lower their prices. It's my belief this conversation should take place at the beginning and not latter. No one wants to buy a home and have it be worth $20,000 less the next month. It's Realtors who are taking on contracts knowing that there going to have to come back a few months latter and reduce that price that are hurting the market. People want a deal, but guess what even with the market corrections and the prices what they are the buyer in reality is getting a steal on even the prices which many Realtors are convinced are over priced. No one has a problem with someone trying to make their jobs easier but many Realtors are in fact just plain lazy. They were used to the frenzy and then when they had to rely on their own ability to sell a piece of property by knowing something about the area they are just lost. Trust me all those people being convinced to sell now will be sick in the near future. There are wheels being put into motion by people like Chris Corr who will make the Panhandle some of the most sought out property in the country. Like the man said this isn't Detroit, its the most beautiful place in the country to live.
:popcorn:
beachmouse avatar
Beach Fanatic
#28
One of the things that needs to change is the development of more of a middle class white collar job base. Right now, the bulk of that kind of thing in the area is either DoD-related (which comes with some barriers to entry) or real estate-related (which we're now seeing is highly cyclical)

Someone needs to light a fire under Florida's Great Northwest, and get them to actually go and do something instead of just sticking a massively outdated website up there and expecting the world to come flocking to their door.

There's actually already a pretty decent high tech infrastructure in the area with the DoD interests in Okaloosa and Bay Counties, and a number of pretty huge defense tech players have a presence in the area. It's a big economic strength that no one is really leveraging into anything else right now. We need someone with vision and drive to lure the commercial technology players into the area.

Start getting those kinds of companies in there with $40-$60K a year salaries, and you'll be seeing the $200K-$400K housing market picking right up (I'm assuming a good number of double income families buying homes)
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#29
Start getting those kinds of companies in there with $40-$60K a year salaries, and you'll be seeing the $200K-$400K housing market picking right up (I'm assuming a good number of double income families buying homes)

Major 'development' in the area lately (aside from condo canyons, vinyl villages and stucco/ss/gct boxes) are "Retail Commons," strip malls, big box stores and food joints....not exactly $40-60K jobs--where do they expect those folks to live?

.
beachmouse avatar
Beach Fanatic
#30
Major 'development' in the area lately (aside from condo canyons, vinyl villages and stucco/ss/gct boxes) are "Retail Commons," strip malls, big box stores and food joints....not exactly $40-60K jobs--where do they expect those folks to live?

.

Florala, Alabama? Ponce de Leon? They're tearing out the trailer parks that used to house service workers in Ft. Walton Beach and Niceville in favor of $200K townhomes now, and the commute from the north side of Crestview to the beach these days is horrible.

I remember Heron's Watch was originally supposed to be workforce housing. Two bedroom condos on 30-A that were under $100K and affordable for someone working tables at some of the nicer reastaurants in the area, and if you had roommates to defray costs, you still had money enough left over to spend a couple weeks in Colorado every winter.
Beach Fanatic
#31
More affordable housing is on the way all over Walton county. I'm pretty sure I just saw 7 townhouses at auction in Heron's Watch. Value is a relative term is it not? I have a hard time seeing value of .08 acre lots at $250K. Now truthiness says Florida real estate is and always has been boom and bust. If you followed your "Madonna/Elvis" realtor advice to purchase in late 04/early 05 frenzy prices you fall into the boob/bust category probably. Our lovely commissioners are spending a great deal of time planning a bottom end housing neighborhood in Freeport. I'm sure all those low price homes are just what the high tech industry employees want. No i'm pretty sure nothing more than more service industry jobs are on the way for Walton. Florida is the sunshine state and could probably be a leader in solar and wind technology along with alternative fuels or green building products and technology industries. There is an abundance of I-10 corridor space and agricultural land available. There could be so much more to Walton than tourism and real estate.
Beach Fanatic
#32
...and the question becomes: why isn't there more to Walton County than real estate and tourism? What does our Economic Development officer do?:idontno:
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
#33
...and the question becomes: why isn't there more to Walton County than real estate and tourism? What does our Economic Development officer do?:idontno:
There is this other little thing called Eglin Airforce Base. :funn:

Forget about bringing in industries until you create a place for the workforce to live. Just like Publix not opening a store in Ebro prior to the people living there to support the business, big industry will never locate here without the workforce to keep it running efficiently.

Edited

Bobby J avatar
Beach Fanatic
#34
For what ever it's worth,my opinion is people don't buy stock when it's dropping(unless you plan on selling it short). I like to take Mr. buffet's approach to buy, and that is buy for the long haul. I believe many Realtors have shot themselves in the proverbial foot by coming back to the owners and convincing them to lower their prices. It's my belief this conversation should take place at the beginning and not latter. No one wants to buy a home and have it be worth $20,000 less the next month. It's Realtors who are taking on contracts knowing that there going to have to come back a few months latter and reduce that price that are hurting the market. People want a deal, but guess what even with the market corrections and the prices what they are the buyer in reality is getting a steal on even the prices which many Realtors are convinced are over priced. No one has a problem with someone trying to make their jobs easier but many Realtors are in fact just plain lazy. They were used to the frenzy and then when they had to rely on their own ability to sell a piece of property by knowing something about the area they are just lost. Trust me all those people being convinced to sell now will be sick in the near future. There are wheels being put into motion by people like Chris Corr who will make the Panhandle some of the most sought out property in the country. Like the man said this isn't Detroit, its the most beautiful place in the country to live.
:popcorn:

You have many good points but we all are learning daily what this market is doing. If you take a listing and you are the lowest in the neighborhood and 2 months later you still have no activity.... What do you do? Do you tell your folks, no buyers? I think there are buyers everywhere. The buyers do not like the price. They dictate price in a depreciating market. I will be one of the first to declare there is nothing like SOWAL but some folks gotta sell today no matter how beautiful it is. It's about the price not an open house or an ad. Some of us are trying to "convince" people to not sell, but what about the folks that have to? :idontno:
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
#35
For what ever it's worth,my opinion is people don't buy stock when it's dropping(unless you plan on selling it short). I like to take Mr. buffet's approach to buy, and that is buy for the long haul.

I think what you really mean is that the masses don't buy when the price is falling. People who are in it for the long haul, typically buy on a regular basis if they like the stock. There is much to be said for investing against the masses.
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
#36
I remember Heron's Watch was originally supposed to be workforce housing. Two bedroom condos on 30-A that were under $100K and affordable for someone working tables at some of the nicer reastaurants in the area, and if you had roommates to defray costs, you still had money enough left over to spend a couple weeks in Colorado every winter.

Point of view apartments was another place where the working folks once lived, then a guy came in and bought them, chopping them into condos, and selling them before running with cash. Much like restaurants in SoWal eventually being priced out, the working class has also been priced out.
beachmouse avatar
Beach Fanatic
#37
There is this other little thing called Eglin Airforce Base. :funn:

Exactly. Boeing just didn't randomly decide to sponsor the Seniors golf tour stop at Sandestin. There are some people here with pretty amazing knowledge bases and skill sets. I've heard Okaloosa County has the highest per capita number of science and engineering PhDs in the state, even more so than Gainesville or the Space Coast. It's just that they can't really talk much because their thesis topics were often kinda classified.

And there are some really cool infrastructure components available to the civilian/commercial market that the right kind of business would love to be close to. The last time Mr. Mouse flew back from a visit to Michigan, he was seated next to a group of Canadian aircraft developers who were coming down to test engines at Eglin's climate lab because apparently you can't get properly controlled conditions when it's -30 in Moose Jaw.

If the EDC or Florida's Great Northwest were smart, they'd figure out a way to pry Dave Goesch away from OWC and get him doing economic development full time. It seems like he's one of the key movers and shakers right now who's got a really strong big picture view of how great this area could be, and who the EDCs should be reaching out to develop partnerships with.
Beach Lover
#38
not sure why we'd want a bunch of corporate employers here? to stabilize the real estate mkt? maybe form more of a community? but if u think sowal is losing its funkiness now, wait until a bunch of corporations open there doors....sheer brutality!!

no thanks...keep sowal a resort/retirement area.

if u buy a $1.5 million dollar vacation home...you should be in a position to not care about declines in the mkt...if you care, u overeached and its gonna hurt. such is life...u decided to enter the game now play by the rules.
Beach Fanatic
#39
Beachmouse...exactly. That's why if Walton County had an effective economic development director, we could utilize all the wonderful things/people already here to draw compatible business and industry...compatible to both the Air Force effort and the Resort area.

We do need more of a community and one that is environmentally sensitive which the Eglin has always been.

The people who live in $million houses need and want services...It doesn't have to be mutually exclusive, if it's done properly. I know, I know...I am dreaming, but other areas have done it...
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
#40
We do need more of a community and one that is environmentally sensitive which the Eglin has always been.

I am trying to think of a way in which Eglin AFB is "environmentally sensitive." I am stumped. Maybe I don't understand the term. I have a good understanding of the phrase, "environmentally friendly," and that comes to mind when I hear your phrase, "envr. sensitive," but maybe I don't have a clue. Will you explain your statement and maybe give three good examples?

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