Premier Auction - March 10, 2007

I see the comment about the crickets and no buyers. Any information on the number of houses under contract along 30-A? I've heard rumor that Watercolor has seen a spike in activity. Can anyone confirm?

Point taken...so it's neither a seller's market....nor a buyer's market....nor an auction. <insert cricket soundbite here>

With the sellers experiencing death by a thousand payments--my money is riding on the sellers blinking first.


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... and this statement I agree with totally.

It's already happening and the sellers are the ones flinching. Just look at recent selling prices compared to prices one or two years ago. Many sellers are taking losses on property in order to get out. I have seen no examples of buyers flinching--except of course, the developers of Redfish Village that way overpaid for the lot in Blue Mountain in order to set the record straight on the product offering for the RV condos.

somebody needs to flinch MORE

I see the comment about the crickets and no buyers. Any information on the number of houses under contract along 30-A? I've heard rumor that Watercolor has seen a spike in activity. Can anyone confirm?

Things are beginning to move a bit in Watercolor--certainly not at a frantic pace but not glacial as it has been for the last 10 or 12 months. However, most of the sales are occurring at ever lower prices. Houses for around $400 per square foot and lots at prices from 2004 and even late 2003. There are losses being taken. The flinching has begun and will continue as builders get more desperate to unload aging inventory and investors dump excess lots.

"Houses for around $400 per square foot..."

Wow - is that accurate Fisher? I had heard that the average sales price last year was closer to $600 per foot in Watercolor. I guess you have to be weary about information that doesn't come from the message board.

"Houses for around $400 per square foot..."

Wow - is that accurate Fisher? I had heard that the average sales price last year was closer to $600 per foot in Watercolor. I guess you have to be weary about information that doesn't come from the message board.

A house on Red Cedar sold recently for just over $430 per sq foot, one is pending on Royal Fern with a LIST price of $439, a big home in Cerulean Landing recently closed for around $450, a tennis district house is pending with a LIST price of $477, the auction house in cypress cove sold for about $410, and a home south of 30A in Rosemary sold for about $550.

Close in Phase I houses in Watercolor seem to be selling in the range of $600-700 per square foot. Outside of that area, sellers will be very, very lucky to get over $500.

"Outside of that area, sellers will be very, very lucky to get over $500."

I asked a realtor today if what you were saying was correct. She pulled the results from last year which showed in Phase II and III of Watercolor, 15 sales that exceed $500 per square foot - 8 were $500+, 4 were $600+ and 3 were $700+. These were the result from a total of 34 sales last year. I thought you knew what you were talking about - but apparently not. By the way, she told me three more houses in Watercolor went under contract today. Sounds pretty encouraging

fulltime, for the period of the last six months from today, home sales in WaterColor:
Avg $563.47 per sq ft.
Lowest closed sale price $670,500
Highest closed sale price $3,850,000
Avg closed SALE price $1,688,652
Avg closed LIST price $1,846,342
Tot number of homes sold 19
Average Days on Market 208

Fisher isn't completely off base with his numbers. There were two sales with price per sf being $358/sf and four homes with $/sf being in the $400's.

"Outside of that area, sellers will be very, very lucky to get over $500."

I asked a realtor today if what you were saying was correct. She pulled the results from last year which showed in Phase II and III of Watercolor, 15 sales that exceed $500 per square foot - 8 were $500+, 4 were $600+ and 3 were $700+. These were the result from a total of 34 sales last year. I thought you knew what you were talking about - but apparently not. By the way, she told me three more houses in Watercolor went under contract today. Sounds pretty encouraging

If your realtor pulled a total of 34 sales and only 15 were for over $500, weren't the rest under $500??? Joe's note indicates that my numbers were pretty accurate--there were even a couple of sale for under $400 per square foot, but those may have been in Phase IV but I'm not sure.

I did not go back to the beginning of 2006 in order to assess current trends in prices. I looked at the most recent sales, many of which have been in the $400 to $450 range. I also stated that prices up close in Phase I seem to be running in the $600 to $700 range these days. Regardless, recent sales indicate that prices are still falling. However, maybe the three houses that went under contract today will buck the trend. We'll see the data once they close.

And, yes, activity is picking up in Watercolor which is a good sign. We'll see if prices follow suit. However, the inventory still needs to come down dramatically before I believe that will happen. There are still 130 houses on the market in WC and more coming on line every week as homes under construction hit the market. Also, spring is coming and lots of people put their property ont he market in the spring. March-July will be a good indicator of where the market is headed next.

SJ - the difference between $400 per foot and $563 per foot is only off about 29%. In my world, that gets you fired. Only on this board is it considered "not completely off base"

"If your realtor pulled a total of 34 sales and only 15 were for over $500, weren't the rest under $500??? "

No, because I didn't post the figures from Phase I. 25% of the houses sold last year in Watercolor were for less than $500 per foot. The remaining 75% sold for between $500 to $800+ per foot.

"Joe's note indicates that my numbers were pretty accurate--"

No, you were not even close. You said sellers not in Phase I would be "very, very lucky" to get over $500 per foot. That's clearly erroneous.

I see the comment about the crickets and no buyers. Any information on the number of houses under contract along 30-A? I've heard rumor that Watercolor has seen a spike in activity. Can anyone confirm?

I can CONFIRM that there has been SOLID activity in WaterColor. 3 different homes went "contingent" from the same BUYER! Just under $6M in real estate! Who said there was "no market?" I BEG TO DIFFER!!!!!

SJ - the difference between $400 per foot and $563 per foot is only off about 29%. In my world, that gets you fired. Only on this board is it considered "not completely off base"

Chill out, baby. Fisher never mentioned average price per sf. Please go back and read his post. My data shows you that 6 out of the 19 home sales in the last six months sold in the $400's per sf or less. There were some sales on the high end too. No need to get all huffy, and try to discredit my comment about fisher not being "totally off base." If you go back and read his comment, I think you will see that he wasn't totally off base, as he never mentioned avg sales price. ;-)

"Chill out, baby."

No problem dude. Fisher said that you would be lucky to sell a house in Watercolor (not in Phase I) for over $500 per foot. Knowing now that 15 houses in Phase II and III sold for in excess of $500 per foot (9 for over $600 per foot), do you agree with Fisher? If so, you and Fisher should limit yourselves to the entertainment and restaurant boards where subjective opinions are the norm.