:roll: I'm living out my lifelong dream of relocating my family here from Tx June 1st and am working through the pros and cons of the current market conditions. I'd love to hear from some of you regarding an objective view of pricing. I'll admit my mindset has become very jaded due to a number of factors. Side note: If you live in Rosemary Beach, don't even bother reading further, you are either retired, independently wealthy, or mortgaged out the wazoo and this lengthy post will bore you.
I'll preface this by saying I don't think I've ever seen so many real estate agents in one particular locale than I've seen here. And with all due respect, I don't expect any one of them to voice anything but optimism about how pricing and demand is right on the verge of taking off. (I'm very skeptical due to the fact that I read that there are over 11,000 listings right now along the Emerald Coast - supply is considerably higher than demand.)
I want someone to tell me what they would tell their son, friend, or business aquaintance they would do, if they were in my shoes. Not try to sell me on the area, just talk honestly about how to get the best value for my housing dollar.
That being said, I think that I am a great prospect for a home purchase. My income is above average, my credit excellent, and my job allows me to live anywhere along the Panhandle. My preference is to live as close to water as possible (and know that waterfront is out of the question). I don't want to have to drive across the causeway or Mid-bay bridge to get to the beach. Bluewater Bay is nice, but not my cup of tea.
However, it now seems that every mudhole with a trailer in this area has been listed at $300K. And I've been coming down here for 40+ years and I've never seen that kind of seller optimism. The number of homes in the $300K to $400K range is disappointing. And my view is that if I'm going to spend $500K for a 3 bedroom 2+ bath home here, I'll definitely build what I want, not buy a 70's home that somebody is trying to flip for a big profit because their agent has convinced them they can get it.
Am I the only guy in the grit eating world that thinks that a price correction is still yet to come? I understand that there is a lot of money coming into this area, but with homeowner's coverage and property taxes rising, I've got to believe that there are a number of folks in Atlanta, Bham, Memphis, etc, who have overextended themselves. If your taxes and insurance are $700/month, that can seriously impact your monthly mortgage note (escrow).
Am I nuts in my thinking? Is this California? I hope this area has not become unaffordable for the average family fortunate enough to live in this incredibly beautiful area. I'm seriously considering renting for a year to watch and wait. I'd love to hear what you would do if you were in my shoes. Thanks for allowing me to type this novel.
Beach DadBeach DadBeach Comber33 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Comber
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6600seer0000seer00Beach LoverPCB112 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Lover
Mr Beach Dad,
You are right to think more correction is coming, in PCB you can find much more for your money. Sowal is different from most markets, it has had astronomical appreciation but for many good reasons and some bad. You must remember that there is a 4story building height on condos or what ever also this area is 95% new construction not a mix of junk, trailors,and older unkept property. The super Rich will continue to buy high end properties because of this and the FACT that these are the most Beautiful Beach in the States if not the World. Sowal Has limited space and the New International Airport will bring more super rich to this area a they will buy the high end units. The correction is everywhere in the USA except for a few areas and it should get very nasty soon in most markets. The enormous amounts of realtors is from the enormous amounts of money they were making on the way up and they told a friend and so on. Only 1 person buys at the bottom and only 1 person sells at the top. The deals are out there now and I don't think this area will come down to PCB prices.
Properties are close to cash flow in some cases over here in PCB but Sowal does have allot of Realtors and others who got caught holding to much land as well. We will soon have unbelievable press on the Airport and the Companies coming around it creating 10s of thousands of jobs. I heard the Highest price home in Sowal sold to the CEO of FEDEX for 9.2M and this will continue .Just my opinion for what its worth.
You are right to think more correction is coming, in PCB you can find much more for your money. Sowal is different from most markets, it has had astronomical appreciation but for many good reasons and some bad. You must remember that there is a 4story building height on condos or what ever also this area is 95% new construction not a mix of junk, trailors,and older unkept property. The super Rich will continue to buy high end properties because of this and the FACT that these are the most Beautiful Beach in the States if not the World. Sowal Has limited space and the New International Airport will bring more super rich to this area a they will buy the high end units. The correction is everywhere in the USA except for a few areas and it should get very nasty soon in most markets. The enormous amounts of realtors is from the enormous amounts of money they were making on the way up and they told a friend and so on. Only 1 person buys at the bottom and only 1 person sells at the top. The deals are out there now and I don't think this area will come down to PCB prices.
Properties are close to cash flow in some cases over here in PCB but Sowal does have allot of Realtors and others who got caught holding to much land as well. We will soon have unbelievable press on the Airport and the Companies coming around it creating 10s of thousands of jobs. I heard the Highest price home in Sowal sold to the CEO of FEDEX for 9.2M and this will continue .Just my opinion for what its worth.
iqueequegiqueequegBeach LoverSnowy Boston102 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Lover
iqueequegBeach LoverSnowy Boston102 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach LoverMy opinion is rent until 2008 or 2009. I don't know if a correction will come between now and then or not, but I doubt there will be much appreciation.
Another option is rent or lease with option to buy with first right of refusal. In a buyer's market such as this you might find a seller willing to go along with it (if the house is sitting empty there's not much downside for the seller).
Good luck.
Another option is rent or lease with option to buy with first right of refusal. In a buyer's market such as this you might find a seller willing to go along with it (if the house is sitting empty there's not much downside for the seller).
Good luck.
fisherfisherBeach Fanatic822 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
I assume from your post that you are not super wealthy with money to burn. If I'm correct in that assumption, I would recommend that you keep your powder dry and rent for the time being. Prices have been falling for the past year or so and are likely to continue to do so given the huge amount of inventory on the market.
However, if you really want to own rather than rent, you might want to consider buying a lot and building a home. Raw land prices have fallen much faster than home prices. House prices have been slower to retreat but they are likely to take a hit as investors and builders get more and more desperate to unload excess inventory.
Come on down, rent for a while and keep a close eye on the market. You can watch average prices by looking at the real trend reports that are posted once a month in the Walton Sun and you can view actual pricing by going to the Walton County property appraisers website. When it appears things are beginning to turn the corner, snatch up something you like and enjoy your new home in SoWal.
Good luck.
PS--It will be very interesting to see if you get any recommendations to jump right into the market now with the appropriate data to back up the recommendation to buy versus rent for the time being.
However, if you really want to own rather than rent, you might want to consider buying a lot and building a home. Raw land prices have fallen much faster than home prices. House prices have been slower to retreat but they are likely to take a hit as investors and builders get more and more desperate to unload excess inventory.
Come on down, rent for a while and keep a close eye on the market. You can watch average prices by looking at the real trend reports that are posted once a month in the Walton Sun and you can view actual pricing by going to the Walton County property appraisers website. When it appears things are beginning to turn the corner, snatch up something you like and enjoy your new home in SoWal.
Good luck.
PS--It will be very interesting to see if you get any recommendations to jump right into the market now with the appropriate data to back up the recommendation to buy versus rent for the time being.
Edited
SHELLYSHELLYSoWal Insider5,763 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Insider
SHELLYSoWal Insider5,763 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal InsiderB-Dad,
Another vote for "renting now and taking your sweet ole time looking around."
I see you're coming from the Texas Hill Country (very nice out that way). You'll need time to adjust from the "wide-open spaces" to the "expensive cramped places" and, I'm assuming, you'll need some time to sell your primary in Texas (unless you want to get slammed with non-homestead taxes in your Florida second-home).
As far as finding a rental, you'll have the pick of the litter if you don't try to get a place during high-tourist season (lock in a contract early or wait until August). And with your money from the sale of your Texas home in the bank, a great credit score and income to cover the mortgage--you'll have your own entourage of Realtors following you around like a Rock Star (you may never have to buy your own lunch for a year).
In the end, you may find out that you won't want to live here when you see the SoWal you've come to know and love over the past years might not be the same after, like OOseerOO points out, the new airport will unleash a flood of affluent folks onto 30A in the not-too-distant future along with 10s of thousands of low-paid laborers needed to service the said masses
<Cough: fat chance>.
No need to rush--it's not 2005 anymore.
Another vote for "renting now and taking your sweet ole time looking around."
I see you're coming from the Texas Hill Country (very nice out that way). You'll need time to adjust from the "wide-open spaces" to the "expensive cramped places" and, I'm assuming, you'll need some time to sell your primary in Texas (unless you want to get slammed with non-homestead taxes in your Florida second-home).
As far as finding a rental, you'll have the pick of the litter if you don't try to get a place during high-tourist season (lock in a contract early or wait until August). And with your money from the sale of your Texas home in the bank, a great credit score and income to cover the mortgage--you'll have your own entourage of Realtors following you around like a Rock Star (you may never have to buy your own lunch for a year).
In the end, you may find out that you won't want to live here when you see the SoWal you've come to know and love over the past years might not be the same after, like OOseerOO points out, the new airport will unleash a flood of affluent folks onto 30A in the not-too-distant future along with 10s of thousands of low-paid laborers needed to service the said masses
<Cough: fat chance>.
No need to rush--it's not 2005 anymore.
beachmousebeachmouseBeach FanaticBluewater Bay, FL3,499 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
beachmouseBeach FanaticBluewater Bay, FL3,499 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach FanaticAnother vote for renting in the short term. Not only because I see prices pretty flat to declining for the next 2-3 years, but also if you're talking dream home, it gives you time to really look around and figure out what the perfect place is for you.
I suspect there are plenty of people willing to rent long term right now after discovering that they can't flip like they'd thought, and that the short term rental management fees are pretty horrible.
I suspect there are plenty of people willing to rent long term right now after discovering that they can't flip like they'd thought, and that the short term rental management fees are pretty horrible.
Indigo JillIndigo JillBeach FanaticPoint Washington321 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Beach Dad - I'm going to break ranks here with a different opinion - and no, I'm not a Realtor (but was one ;-) ). I think, if you want to move here and stay for a while (5+ years - and once you are here, I think you'll see you will NEVER want to leave because it is a wonderful life living in this amazing area), you won't be disappointed in your investment. The area is stagnant, yes, in real estate like SO many other places in the country. But there are some amazing deals right now, and like some of the other optimists on this board, I believe it will turn around. It's like shopping at TJMAXX - you have to sift through a lot of stuff, but there are some incredible buying opportunities and if you spend the time and effort, you can find a great deal. The real question you have to ask yourself is how bad do you want to be here? I rented for 8+ years and I can tell you, it was a real pain in the you-know-what. You could move here, have to move your family into a rental (no equity being built) and "hope" that a better deal will come along. Do your homework and I think you can find that "deal" now.
Just my 2 cents. Good luck.
Just my 2 cents. Good luck.
fisherfisherBeach Fanatic822 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Beach Dad - I'm going to break ranks here with a different opinion - and no, I'm not a Realtor (but was one ;-) ). I think, if you want to move here and stay for a while (5+ years - and once you are here, I think you'll see you will NEVER want to leave because it is a wonderful life living in this amazing area), you won't be disappointed in your investment. The area is stagnant, yes, in real estate like SO many other places in the country. But there are some amazing deals right now, and like some of the other optimists on this board, I believe it will turn around. It's like shopping at TJMAXX - you have to sift through a lot of stuff, but there are some incredible buying opportunities and if you spend the time and effort, you can find a great deal. The real question you have to ask yourself is how bad do you want to be here? I rented for 8+ years and I can tell you, it was a real pain in the you-know-what. You could move here, have to move your family into a rental (no equity being built) and "hope" that a better deal will come along. Do your homework and I think you can find that "deal" now.
Just my 2 cents. Good luck.
Please let Beachdad and the rest of us know some the real deals that are available right now.
Indigo JillIndigo JillBeach FanaticPoint Washington321 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Please let Beachdad and the rest of us know some the real deals that are available right now.
As I said, I'm not a Realtor anymore so don't have access to the MLS to quickly pull some data - and I'm not going to sift through public records ... Beach Dad can do that.
That said, I've heard of homes in WaterColor selling around $600-$700K and people getting incredible deals at auctions. And there is a lot on my block here in Point Washington that was just recently listed for $99K (or around there). That to me is a steal. Maybe some Realtors could quickly share some data with us?
fisherfisherBeach Fanatic822 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
As I said, I'm not a Realtor anymore so don't have access to the MLS to quickly pull some data - and I'm not going to sift through public records ... Beach Dad can do that.
That said, I've heard of homes in WaterColor selling around $600-$700K and people getting incredible deals at auctions. And there is a lot on my block here in Point Washington that was just recently listed for $99K (or around there). That to me is a steal. Maybe some Realtors could quickly share some data with us?
It won't be a steal in hindsight if prices keep falling.
Indigo JillIndigo JillBeach FanaticPoint Washington321 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
It won't be a steal in hindsight if prices keep falling.
You are 100% right - if you buy without doing your homework and in an area where prices are free falling. But not all areas in SoWal are doing that, fisher.
I truly believe there is property out there right now that won't go much lower - like the lot on my block. As it's been said before here, there are areas where buyers may want to hold out a while. But there are other areas that are great areas to buy into now, especially if you are buying as a long term investment, such a someone who wants to move here.
It may just be me but I don't see any point of moving to an area where you know you want to live for a while and going through the hassle of renting on the chance that prices may fall a few thousand dollars (because there are buys right now where IMO they are priced to sell and won't lose much more value). If I buy wisely today, and plan on keeping the investment over the long term, I personally would feel that I have made a great investment decision.
Is the glass half full or half empty??
Here4GoodHere4GoodBeach FanaticPoint Washington1,264 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Here4GoodBeach FanaticPoint Washington1,264 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach FanaticI'll fall in with the rent first voting bloc - not just because of the current prices, but also because this area can be pretty tricky to figure out. You might think, "Oh, I want to be as close to 30-A as possible", and then discover that the traffic and being surrounded by tourists is not the paradise it might be, and decide that Point Washington is the place to be (not that I'm prejudiced, but Point Washington is the place to be! :clap_1: ).
There is a couple who just purchased a home in our neighborhood, for example - they had actually lived in the area before, and they were working with a realtor to find a home to move back down. The lady got lost, took a wrong turn off of Bay Drive, followed the open house signs our neighbor had posted, and found our neighborhood, which she had no idea even existed. They were familiar with the area and were working with an agent, but would never have found this lovely home if she had not gotten lost!
In a market like this, there are bargains and there are mistakes waiting to happen. I would want to be here, looking every week, checking every nook and cranny, before I plunked down my money.
There is a couple who just purchased a home in our neighborhood, for example - they had actually lived in the area before, and they were working with a realtor to find a home to move back down. The lady got lost, took a wrong turn off of Bay Drive, followed the open house signs our neighbor had posted, and found our neighborhood, which she had no idea even existed. They were familiar with the area and were working with an agent, but would never have found this lovely home if she had not gotten lost!
In a market like this, there are bargains and there are mistakes waiting to happen. I would want to be here, looking every week, checking every nook and cranny, before I plunked down my money.
full timefull timeBeach Fanatic726 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
When just about everyone says the real estate market sucks, that's about the time to buy. By the looks of this thread, it's a good time to be a buyer. Good call Indigo Jill.
GoodWitch58GoodWitch58Beach Fanatic4,810 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Beach Dad, I agree with Indigo Jill and I am a Realtor.
If you were my Dad or my brother, or any of my customers, I would say to you: find a Realtor you are comfortable with and one whom you trust. Interview your Realtor the same way you would your Doctor or Lawyer--get references, and establish a rapport.
Since you are relocating to the area to establish a home, you are different than someone who is looking to make money from real estate investment.
That said, decide where you want to live; how much you want to pay; and have your Realtor find it for you. If your primary motivation is living in SoWal, and you stay within your budget, and find the house you love, then it is a successful venture.
Good luck!
If you were my Dad or my brother, or any of my customers, I would say to you: find a Realtor you are comfortable with and one whom you trust. Interview your Realtor the same way you would your Doctor or Lawyer--get references, and establish a rapport.
Since you are relocating to the area to establish a home, you are different than someone who is looking to make money from real estate investment.
That said, decide where you want to live; how much you want to pay; and have your Realtor find it for you. If your primary motivation is living in SoWal, and you stay within your budget, and find the house you love, then it is a successful venture.
Good luck!
Indigo JillIndigo JillBeach FanaticPoint Washington321 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Another vote for renting in the short term. Not only because I see prices pretty flat to declining for the next 2-3 years, but also if you're talking dream home, it gives you time to really look around and figure out what the perfect place is for you. .
Even if you bought wisely today and prices stagnate for the next few years, if you have purchased as a long term investment, according to history, things will swing up again.
More importantly though, if you rent for 2-3 years, you have lost that time to build equity - and helped the owner of your rental build theirs! There are many "what if's" in life ... this is an AMAZING place to live and we all have to be thankful we can afford to be here because many who would like to move here can't. Do your homework and you will see there is a perfect place for you RIGHT NOW to buy and call "home".
Indigo JillIndigo JillBeach FanaticPoint Washington321 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
If you were my Dad or my brother, or any of my customers, I would say to you: find a Realtor you are comfortable with and one whom you trust. Interview your Realtor the same way you would your Doctor or Lawyer--get references, and establish a rapport.
IMO everyone needs to use a Realtor when buying or selling - with the litigous nature of our society these days, you'd be foolish not to have a Realtor.
That said, you have to be proactive in your search. Your Realtor doesn't actually wear your shoes. Even if you tell them in great detail what you are looking for, only you, the buyer, knows what you really want (which can change in the process of looking!). I had the best Realtor in SoWal on my team when we looked for our house...and I was the one who found the one we ended up buying.
Buyers have access to every single tool they need to find a property themselves. When you hire a Realtor as part of your team, there is no reason why you shouldn't find your "dream home" first time around, making renting a moot point.
fisherfisherBeach Fanatic822 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Even if you bought wisely today and prices stagnate for the next few years, if you have purchased as a long term investment, according to history, things will swing up again.
More importantly though, if you rent for 2-3 years, you have lost that time to build equity - and helped the owner of your rental build theirs! There are many "what if's" in life ... this is an AMAZING place to live and we all have to be thankful we can afford to be here because many who would like to move here can't. Do your homework and you will see there is a perfect place for you RIGHT NOW to buy and call "home".
A couple of points. First, prices are not stagnant right now, they are falling. It's one thing to buy in a stagnant market and another to buy in a falling market with no bottom in sight. Second, if you buy a house and the price falls after you buy, you are not building equity, you are losing equity.
Indigo JillIndigo JillBeach FanaticPoint Washington321 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
A couple of points. First, prices are not stagnant right now, they are falling. It's one thing to buy in a stagnant market and another to buy in a falling market with no bottom in sight. Second, if you buy a house and the price falls after you buy, you are not building equity, you are losing equity.
Again, difference in perspective. I'm looking at the perspective of buying in the long term, you in the short term. What you say is totally correct and should be considered if you are buying in the short term. What I say is totally correct and should be considered if you are buying in the long term. We aren't on the same page, fisher, making it a moot dialogue.
Indigo JillIndigo JillBeach FanaticPoint Washington321 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
A couple of points. First, prices are not stagnant right now, they are falling. It's one thing to buy in a stagnant market and another to buy in a falling market with no bottom in sight. .I don't agree ... I don't think all areas in SoWal are the same and there is a bottom in sight to the price reductions.
[/quote] Second, if you buy a house and the price falls after you buy, you are not building equity, you are losing equity [/quote]
True - but if you buy wisely, you won't be buying a house that falls in price. And if you do, and you've bought for the long term, history has told us things swing up again. Just like stocks - up and down, up and down.
destinsmdestinsmBeach Lover92 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Lover
Even if you bought wisely today and prices stagnate for the next few years, if you have purchased as a long term investment, according to history, things will swing up again.
More importantly though, if you rent for 2-3 years, you have lost that time to build equity - and helped the owner of your rental build theirs! There are many "what if's" in life ... this is an AMAZING place to live and we all have to be thankful we can afford to be here because many who would like to move here can't. Do your homework and you will see there is a perfect place for you RIGHT NOW to buy and call "home".
I am really tired of hearing this line of crap...
If you buy, you are building equity...
If you rent, you are throwing money away...
Lets actually look at this simplistic mainstream idea a bit deeper...
Lets assume as you have stated that the market will stagnate for a few years and I am looking to buy or rent next week...
Well if I looked to buy a home in South Walton and say as example I picked Village of Blue Mountain I would be looking to pay anywhere from $700k to $1.5M depending on the size....
Well if I meander on over to the rental department I can magically rent a home over 2,000 sq ft for $2,000/month in the same neighborhood... And this comparable size home in this neighborhood would be going for about $1.25 million...
So say I bought it at $1.25 million and I even put down 20%(doubtful to have $250,000 cash on hand for a down payment... but I am giving the benefit of doubt in this argument toward the buying side... I also won't even use this downpayment against you as far as the opportunity you have wasted by putting $250k into the house rather than letting it grow in a mutual fund or even a high yield savings) my mortgage with insurance taxes and interest would be no cheaper than $7000/month... This is assuming annual taxes at $7500/year and Annual Insurance at $2500/year... pretty low assumptions...
So knowing that very little of your PITI payment each month for your mortgage actually goes to Principal for the first 5 years of the loan... why would I want to spend $5000/month more to live in the same type of home...
Assuming you even had $7,000/month to spend on a mortgage would you not rather pay $2,000 per month to rent and save the difference ($5,000/month in even a high yield savings account???)
In this scenario with house prices stagnate and the difference from price to rent in five years that person could have saved and grown his savings to close to $350k in a simple high yield savings account with absolutely no risk... or he could fork over $7,000 per month and hope and pray everynight that his house appreciates like it was 2005 all over again...
I also left out maintenance costs, HOA dues, and maybe some other small things to again give the benefit of my math to the buyer.... But in the end, in my opinion you would be crazy not to rent for a few years and see how this thing shakes out...
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