Caribbean disturbance being monitored

SHELLY · #1 06-26-2009, 11:16 PM

Caribbean disturbance being monitored

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean has been interacting with an upper low. This interaction has produce widespread showers and storms during the past couple of days. This area is being monitored for signs of development as environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for further development. An upper low to the west is moving to the SW and a large upper anti-cyclone is building over the system. This set-up is very favorable for rapid intensification. Going against any quick development is that the surface feature is very poorly defined. There are no indications of a closed surface circulation. In addition, the surface convergence is weak this evening. Based upon this, I expect the convection to weaken somewhat this evening. Often when there is a large area of convection like we had today, a remnant mid-level circulation is generated, and this can serve to trigger future development. This scenario will have to be monitored very closely over the next couple of days.

The system is expected to continue moving to the west, and move over the Yucatan during the day tomorrow. Given the lack of a surface feature now, development is not expected before striking the Yucatan. However, conditions appear somewhat favorable for development once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico and the system could become a tropical cyclone as soon as Sunday.

Once in the Gulf, the system is expected to move to the NE. preliminary indications are for the system to threaten the Florida Peninsula due to a digging trough. However, this is subject to large error this far out. Therefore, all residents of the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance

Lisa_at_the_beach · #2 06-27-2009, 08:20 AM

here we go............2009......well at least my ROOF is back on !!! HEY

sunspotbaby · #3 06-27-2009, 08:20 AM

Thanks Shelly, haven't looked at the weather lately (at least not on TV)

seagrovegirl · #4 06-27-2009, 09:49 AM

Bring on the RAIN!!!!!!

Lynnie · #5 06-27-2009, 10:16 AM

Rain - yes!

Smiling JOe · #6 06-27-2009, 10:37 AM

We could definitely use some rain just prior to all the fireworks being shot next week, but a hurricane, we don't want or need.

As hot as the temps have been lately, I think we may be in for quite the stormy summer. Get your surfboard ready, Bobby J.

Bobby J · #7 06-27-2009, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

We could definitely use some rain just prior to all the fireworks being shot next week, but a hurricane, we don't want or need.

As hot as the temps have been lately, I think we may be in for quite the stormy summer. Get your surfboard ready, Bobby J.

Beyond Ready! I will take windy and wet over hot and dry any day!