Hurricane Isaac

[kurt]

Keeping an eye on him. 5-day track (image updates regularly):




During emergencies it's critical to have eyes on the ground from locals who know what's going on, and comforting to have it all in one place. Our staff and members receive, gather and disseminate information from multiple sources such as the Walton County Sheriff's office, the South Walton Fire District, local media, and other regional and national authorites. We monotor their sites, Facebook pages, Twitter feeds, as well as receiving direct text messages and email alerts.

We are watching closely and If necessary we'll have an entire forum dedicated to Isaac or any other event with storm reports, links, discussion, photos and more critical information. We usually watch closely and calmly until a storm enters the gulf. But please remeber you should always make preparations to protect your life and property.

Keep an eye on conditions on our live beachcams at www.SoWal.com/beachcams.

Useful links:
http://www.floridadisaster.org
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/ready.php
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical
http://www.waltonso.org
http://www.swfd.org

[kurt]

Computer models:

[kurt]

Ensemble computer models:

[kurt]

Satellite

[relax]

wow i was just looking . This isn't looking good. maybe not a near direct hit but definitely its going to effect us.

[Will B]

I think this is far more accurate!!

[Arkiehawg]

wow i was just looking . This isn't looking good. maybe not a near direct hit but definitely its going to effect us.

The GFS model at 1pm today seems to want a direct hit on SoWal.....
I blame Huckabee....

[PC]

Im sure the models will shift again after they have the data from the NOAA G-IV plugged into the model runs tonight. Lets hope so anyway, were coming down in a few weeks.

[Just_In_Thyme]

Let's hope it keeps drifting west of us. It looks like we are going to to storm surge and beach erosion for sure.

[cbusbeachmom]

Hate to see this.....hoping that it doesn't hit near SoWal!

[deasnealy]

Hey group. Thanks for the update. Looks like they have picked us and I hope that means they are wrong. Have they ever been correct on their pick 100%? If they are, when do you guys start boarding up windows or putting up your shutters? I just bought a home and they are in the basement, but it looks like they have never been used. No pegs. Not sure I should travel down to attempt to install. I have renters in place until Monday.

[Arkiehawg]

Hey group. Thanks for the update. Looks like they have picked us and I hope that means they are wrong. Have they ever been correct on their pick 100%? If they are, when do you guys start boarding up windows or putting up your shutters? I just bought a home and they are in the basement, but it looks like they have never been used. No pegs. Not sure I should travel down to attempt to install. I have renters in place until Monday.

Accuracy on the forecast is fairly good about 72hours out. Stating that, the models seem to be fairly consistent with a Northern Gulf landfall. A lot of things have to fall in place for Isaac to visit us within 100 miles each way. Regarding shuttering. IMO, I would wait till Monday at the earliest. Current project for our target area is next Wed. That gives you plenty of time without the worries of heavy winds/rain. Trust me it isn't fun to board up with high winds... I would recommend keeping a vigilant watch this weekend and if we are still in the tight track by Monday, start your preparations. Also, now is the time to plan any evacuation and your hurricane kit if you haven't already done so.....Remember to stock up on plenty of water and plan on little to no assistance in the first 72 hours...

[Just_In_Thyme]

There is a lot of time for this thing to move east or west of us. The good news is they are only predicting it to be a Cat 1 when it comes ashore.

[Arkiehawg]

There is a lot of time for this thing to move east or west of us. The good news is they are only predicting it to be a Cat 1 when it comes ashore.

I wouldn't put a lot of belief in that Cat 1 statement currently from NHC. They aren't the greatest at forecasting intensity. Pretty good at projected path though. Wouldn't be a bit surprised if that Cat 1 ends up much higher...

[relax]

Just looked at 11 am nhc and its now shifted right over us. Last few days its been shifting west so its projected to hit wed so still a lot of time

[Ty]

I have reservations on Sept 5 for about 10 days and we are wondering if this storm hits as it's projected, what will the water be like at that time of Sept 5? Anyone have any past experiences or ideas? thanks a lot!!

[lenzoe]

After a storm it's usually beautiful.

[Beach Runner]

I have reservations on Sept 5 for about 10 days and we are wondering if this storm hits as it's projected, what will the water be like at that time of Sept 5? Anyone have any past experiences or ideas? thanks a lot!!

We have driven down for the past 10 years after every storm to check on our house and my sister's houses. We always have a great time. So come on down!

If the storm hits in South Walton, we'll drive down as soon as we hear there are no closed roads or bridges and there's power.

From my experience the water might still be rough, so hope you have access to a pool.

[beachma]

We're flying in from St. Louis tomorrow morning...have reservations in Seagrove for 9 days. Where do tourists go if there is a mandatory evacuation? Should I make hotel reservations somewhere north for "plan B" or do the rental companies have contingency plans in place to move people? Thanks!

[Beach Runner]

We're flying in from St. Louis tomorrow morning...have reservations in Seagrove for 9 days. Where do tourists go if there is a mandatory evacuation? Should I make hotel reservations somewhere north for "plan B" or do the rental companies have contingency plans in place to move people? Thanks!

Well, first of all you need to know that if there are sustained winds of 40 mph or over, the bridges close. There's no way to leave without crossing a bridge. If that's the case, rental companies will advise you to get out of dodge due to liability, and owners want you out of their rentals because they don't want to be liable. Each rental company has its own refund policy, so I'd check with them.

As far as plan B goes, ask what they'd suggest. If South Walton gets a hit, the question is how far north do you go? When Opal came through, it hit Georgia too. We have a Louisiana-style house in GA with functional hurricane shutters. WE NEEDED THEM.

[30A Skunkape]

They just made Jim Cantorre cough up $5 to park in Seaside.

[kurt]

Currently, the Walton County Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is at a Level 3. This means we are monitoring the situation and staying abreast of the weather conditions.


Twice a day, meetings are held via webinar with State EOC officials. The current weather situation is discussed, and members throughout the state of Florida discuss actions that each county is taking in preparation of the storm.


The Walton County EOC will continue to stay at Level 3 and will be on standby this weekend watching the forecast models. As conditions change, the press and public will be notified of Level status changes.


The WCSO has opened up a Tropical Storm Isaac Citizen Information Hotline. Citizens may call in with their questions about the storm to these numbers: 850-892-8392 and 850-892-8394. No shelters have been opened at this time.


The public is encouraged to be prepared, no matter what. Food, water, and batteries are good to have in stock in any situation, as this is Florida and weather can change in the blink of an eye.


Citizens and visitors to Walton County can keep up with the latest information by visiting www.waltonso.org; www.facebook.com/waltonalert and www.facebook.com/waltoncountysheriff

[Jdarg]

They just made Jim Cantorre cough up $5 to park in Seaside.

Yesssss! I will make him some Dargaritas if he shows up!

[Arkiehawg]

They just made Jim Cantorre cough up $5 to park in Seaside.

Luv ya Skunky...made my day!


BTW, I miss Jason for these events. The local mets on ABC and CBS SUCK..... That is all

Now back to Wunderground

[30A Skunkape]

Yesssss! I will make him some Dargaritas if he shows up!

Looters will B shot but Cantorre can shoot tequila. Cat 1 everyone; if you're the panicking type, leave or don't come, but this will not be a big deal life or limb wise. If I was a tourist I would stay away because we will almost certainly lose power and restaurants/stores will be closed. No AC in August sucks.

[Beach Angel]

Looters will B shot but Cantorre can shoot tequila. Cat 1 everyone; if you're the panicking type, leave or don't come, but this will not be a big deal life or limb wise. If I was a tourist I would stay away because we will almost certainly lose power and restaurants/stores will be closed. No AC in August sucks.

thanks for all of the tips and advice. we are heading home tomorrow after an extended stay with grandma this summer. mr. beachangel is leaving on a biz trip on tuesday morning, so i am a bit nervous about the prospect of being evacuated - alone - with 3 cats! staying home during a cat 1 sounds about my speed - i think i can handle that. i'll keep watching this thread for info and ideas. i'm picking up extra supplies here to bring with me, since by the time we arrive the shelves might be empty. yikes!

[beachma]

Looters will B shot but Cantorre can shoot tequila. Cat 1 everyone; if you're the panicking type, leave or don't come, but this will not be a big deal life or limb wise. If I was a tourist I would stay away because we will almost certainly lose power and restaurants/stores will be closed. No AC in August sucks.

Rental companies do not offer refunds for any reason without rental insurance, which will only offer a refund in the case of a "mandatory evacuation" order. I have rental insurance...and have paid over $1500 upfront for my beachfront, first floor condominium. Add in airfare and car rental and we're out a significant chunk of change. We've been in Seagrove once when a "not quite cat 1" hurricane came through...2001, I think, TS Barry. We were at Beachside Villas and were encouraged by the rental company to stick it out. It was a bit disturbing when the furniture started flying off the balcony and 75 mile an hour sustained winds through the night was enough for us to decide we really didn't want to exprience anything any stronger! We'll be there at 9:30 tomorrow morning and hoping to get at least 3 days upfront...not sure what the rest of the week will hold...just holding out hope! It's not only about our vacation...it's heartbreaking as well to witness the aftermath of storms like Ivan & Dennis.

[kurt]

Gulf Power Company News
For immediate release – Aug. 24, 2012


Storm plan in place as Isaac threatens


Gulf Power is gathering up a cavalry of utility workers to ride to the aid of Northwest Florida should Hurricane Isaac make landfall here next week.


More than 700 workers from neighboring utilities have been recruited so far to help Gulf Power remove downed trees and restore electric service if Isaac invades the region.


“We have a storm-tested restoration plan and we’re preparing for widespread power outages if Isaac comes ashore anywhere within our service area,” said Jeff Rogers with Gulf Power. “We are activating our emergency operations center and each of our employees have storm assignments to help restore service as quickly and safely as possible." Rogers said it 's too early to predict exactly where Isaac will land or how long power may be out, but that Gulf Power was preparing as if Isaac will be a strong storm making a direct hit.


“Once the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico we will have a better idea of areas at risk. Needless to say, we are preparing for the worst and will be assigning our employees to the areas within our service territory that are hardest hit.” Gulf Power urges residents to follow evacuation orders and to leave the area if they are not prepared for a lengthy recovery period.


“We ask for everyone’s patience and understanding. If Isaac makes landfall in our service area, our crews stand ready to work as quickly and as safely as possible to restore everyone’s power,” Rogers said.
Customers can follow updates on Gulf Power’s Facebook page or Twitter feed: www.facebook.com/gulfpowercompany<http://www.facebook.com/gulfpowercompany> or www.twitter.com/gulfpower<http://www.twitter.com/gulfpower>. Customers can also report outages on their mobile phone at www.gulfpower.com<http://www.gulfpower.com/>. Just click the “Log In” button in the “My Account” box.


The Gulf Power Storm Center website covers such subjects as Preparation and Safety<http://www.gulfpower.com/storm/preparation.asp>, Restoration Process<http://www.gulfpower.com/storm/power/restoration.asp>, Meter Box Damage<http://www.gulfpower.com/storm/meter/meterbox.asp>, Generator Safety<http://www.gulfpower.com/storm/generator.asp>, Power OutageFAQs<http://www.gulfpower.com/storm/pofaq.asp> and GeneralStorm Tips<http://www.gulfpower.com/storm/stormtips.asp>.

[Bellasmomma33]

Are there alternate routes to I-10 via Panama City Beach? If we have to evacuate I'm sure 331 is going to be bumper to bumper

[Beach Runner]

You still have to cross the bridge at Inlet Beach. But if that bridge isn't closed, you can go 98 east to 79 north and get out of South Walton. Actually we did that once in the opposite direction when we were desperate to get to South Walton to check on our home after a storm. We had to dodge some fallen trees, but we made it.

[beachmouse]

Note that if it starts to look quite serious, the Mid-Bay Bridge will sometimes (but not always) suspend toll collection until things start to normalize a little.

That status is normally part of the usual preparation & recovery media reports.

[Beach Runner]

Bottom line:

Filll up your gas tank in your car ASAP. Be prepared for desperate people being rude.

Then get the heck outta the storm area way before the bridges close. We were at the beach a few weeks ago and had to leave on a Saturday AM. It took us an hour to get from Seagrove to north of the 331 bridge. That's with no storm. So can you imagine how long it would take to get to Freeport when everyone is evacuating? And that is assuming that the 331 bridge is open.

I hope the storm turns farther west and the above is not necessary (no offense to the folks in south TX or Mexico).

[Beach Runner]

Oh, man! The models are converging. Looks like our beloved South Walton will take a hit.

I just pray that no one gets hurt and that any damage is superficial.

[NotDeadYet]

Rental companies do not offer refunds for any reason without rental insurance, which will only offer a refund in the case of a "mandatory evacuation" order. I have rental insurance...and have paid over $1500 upfront for my beachfront, first floor condominium. Add in airfare and car rental and we're out a significant chunk of change. We've been in Seagrove once when a "not quite cat 1" hurricane came through...2001, I think, TS Barry. We were at Beachside Villas and were encouraged by the rental company to stick it out. It was a bit disturbing when the furniture started flying off the balcony and 75 mile an hour sustained winds through the night was enough for us to decide we really didn't want to exprience anything any stronger! We'll be there at 9:30 tomorrow morning and hoping to get at least 3 days upfront...not sure what the rest of the week will hold...just holding out hope! It's not only about our vacation...it's heartbreaking as well to witness the aftermath of storms like Ivan & Dennis.

I remember that storm in 2001. I heard later that it actually was a Cat 1 hurricane but the center was so small and there were no official measuring devices in SoWal, so it went into the records as a tropical storm. I think I remember that the center went right over Seaside.
Mostly I remember it because it brought down a huge tree in my backyard, scared the crap out of me. I kept looking out the window and thinking, geez, this sure looks like a hurricane to me.

[relax]

I'm coming down tommorrow and actually thinking of staying threw it. The model hasn't changed much in 24 hrs and right now looks direct hit on either side of 20-50 miles of sowal. looks like cat 1 90 mph when it hits

[kurt]

Bottom line:

Filll up your gas tank in your car ASAP. Be prepared for desperate people being rude.

Then get the heck outta the storm area way before the bridges close. We were at the beach a few weeks ago and had to leave on a Saturday AM. It took us an hour to get from Seagrove to north of the 331 bridge. That's with no storm. So can you imagine how long it would take to get to Freeport when everyone is evacuating? And that is assuming that the 331 bridge is open.

I hope the storm turns farther west and the above is not necessary (no offense to the folks in south TX or Mexico).

There are relatively few visitors here now. I doubt we have a lot of visitors who have planned to come for a full week starting today and tomorrow, and some may not come because of the storm. Evacuation can be a nightmare in season but shouldn't be nearly as bad now.

According to models, we could get landfall 100 miles on either side, in which case we would likely get a lot of rainfall and beach erosion. Any closer and we could suffer power outages, felled trees, and serious beach erosion, especially on beaches that are already classifies as critically eroded. Our dunes are very vulnerable as a result of all the erosion from the 2005 storms.

On the plus side, there is still time for the models to shift. Monday's forecast will really tell the tale. But go ahead and start preparing now.

[kurt]

http://www.alaquaanimalrefuge.org/page.aspx?pid=683

Pet Friendly Hotels in the DeFuniak Springs Evacuation Area

Best Western Crossroads Inn DeFuniak Springs, FL 850-892-5111 Comfort Inn and Suites DeFuniak Springs, FL 850-951-2225 Comfort Inn and Suites Crestview, FL (866) 611-6301 Jameson Inn Crestview, FL (850) 683-1778 EconoLodge Andalusia, AL (866) 611-6770 Days Inn Andalusia, AL (334) 427-0050 Comfort Inn Dothan, AL (877) 424-6423 Econo Lodge Dothan, AL (877) 424-6423 Clarion Inn and Suites Dothan, AL (877) 424-6423 La Quinta Inn and Suites Dothan, AL 334-793-9090 Motel 6 Dothan, AL (334)793-6013 Residence Inn Dothan, AL 334-793-1030 Knights Inn Dothan, AL 334-793-2550

[Franny]

Thanks Kurt!

[Beach Runner]

There are relatively few visitors here now. I doubt we have a lot of visitors who have planned to come for a full week starting today and tomorrow, and some may not come because of the storm. Evacuation can be a nightmare in season but shouldn't be nearly as bad now.

According to models, we could get landfall 100 miles on either side, in which case we would likely get a lot of rainfall and beach erosion. Any closer and we could suffer power outages, felled trees, and serious beach erosion, especially on beaches that are already classifies as critically eroded. Our dunes are very vulnerable as a result of all the erosion from the 2005 storms.

On the plus side, there is still time for the models to shift. Monday's forecast will really tell the tale. But go ahead and start preparing now.

Thanks, Kurt, for the info. It's good that this is not happening during the busy season. Rentals are good for Labor Day weekend, but there will be time to decide whether or not to cancel prior to then.

[Alicia Leonard]

Great info!

[cbusbeachmom]

Praying all these models are totally wrong! My 7-year old twins were in tears this morning when they heard us talking about SoWal possibly getting hit. We are scheduled to get in Sept 1st from Ohio....hoping eveyone stays safe!

[Teresa]

I think this is far more accurate!!

yes, Alicia loves this one!

[Beach Runner]

If you are new to the whole hurricane experience, here is a bit of advice. If you board up, when you take them down, fill the nail holes before you paint. Otherwise water settles into those holes and rots the window and door trim. We learned this the first time we boarded up in 2004. We had to replace all the trim around the windows and doors. Thank goodness the last time we had to board up was for Katrina in 2005 because the computer models were inconsistent until the last minute. But when you board up a three-story house, you can't do it at the last minute. You have to do it when you have the workers available to do it. I mean, there's no way my husband could carry multiple 50-pound pieces of plywood up a 32' ladder. And we were lucky enough to have a 32' ladder. Ladders are a valuable commodity prior to a storm. Thankfully hubby has every tool known to the human race, so he had a 32' ladder.

[Lake View Too]

32' Ladders for sale: $5,000 each. 1/2" Plywood $350 per sheet, while they last...

[Ty]

Thanks for the info. This will be our 2nd trip since May. We love the area and try to come every year, but this trip we are bringing friends with us and this will be their first trip. We do have travel insurance but do not want to have to cancel. We are thinking since it will be the week after everything should be ok?? Prayers that everyone will be safe!

We have driven down for the past 10 years after every storm to check on our house and my sister's houses. We always have a great time. So come on down!

If the storm hits in South Walton, we'll drive down as soon as we hear there are no closed roads or bridges and there's power.

From my experience the water might still be rough, so hope you have access to a pool.

[deasnealy]

My home in Grayton needs to have my panels mounted. I am thinking about coming down to install, but actually concerned I will be caught before I could finish. I am working on getting some additional help. We just bought the home and have not had a chance arrange for panal installation during the storms. Is anyone going to ride this out in Grayton or will most of the locals evacuate on level 2 hurricane? Its insured, but I would prefer to avoid additional damage as you can imagine. I am really concerned about flooding in the Grayton area.

Any suggestions would be great

[kurt]

Grayton can have some flooding near the beach if there is storm surge. Some water got up around the red bar for Opal. That was pretty extreme. If you are north, and not on the lake, you should be OK from flooding.

Many people will stay, but absolutely should leave if they are in low lying areas that are prone to flood. A lot of locals leave because being without power for a few days or more stinks.

[deasnealy]

I am on Magnolia in New Grayton. My elevation is not far off from the Red Bar, but I could see a little flooding if it floods the Red Bar. House is about 6 feet above ground elevation, but not the auto!

Thanks for the advice.

[RiverOtter]

Okay, So I just mapped High Pointe, zoomed out and compared it to the predicted path of Isaac.... Looks like a bullseye.

[Bob]

Post storm, Blue Mountain Beach will look like the nightmare the "I own the beach" crowd have made it.