Condo Sales in South Walton up 33%

[Murray Balkcom]

Santa Rosa Beach, FL- Condo sales in South Walton are making a comeback in 2011. Much like the lot sales, we see buyers steadily coming back to the condo market in South Walton. In May we saw 68 condo sales reported to Emerald Coast Association of Realtors, compared to only 51 sales in May 2010, up 33%. We are down slightly from the previous month’s 77 sales.


Median sold price in May ($245,000) is up 9%, compared to April’s numbers and looks to be leveling out over the last twelve months. This stability in pricing is great to see.



What is happening to the condo inventory? Inventory has been decreasing at a fairly constant rate each month. From May 2010, we watched the inventory of actively listed condos in South Walton decrease 18%, down to 1030 in May 2011. Comparing current inventory to peak inventory, we are down 57%.
In May 2011, the average sales price of condos was 91.5% of the list price. Total dollar volume of sold condos in May ($19.8 million) is up 4.8% over May 2010.


What can we expect to see in condo sales in the future? Looking at the pending condo sales in South Walton, we have 88 pending condo sales in May, up 13% over April 2010 and up 132% over May 2010. Pending sales being only an indicator of potential future sales, means that it is likely that we will see an increase in condo sales in June, but remember, pending sales don’t always go to closing.


Murray Balkcom is a licensed Realtor with The Premier Property Group serving South Walton.


All sales data referenced above is provided by Emerald Coast Association of Realtors and is thought to be accurate but not guaranteed.

[vinniej3]

Did sales at RFV help numbers? It is my understanding that everything at RF has either sold or is under contract and the Patten folks have closed up shop and moved on? Are you hearing any rumors about opening/re-opening of some of the commercial space? My family is so happy we purchased; we've been down twice, and hope to make it down at least one weekend a month.

[Murray Balkcom]

Redfish Village sales didn't start coming through the MLS until this week, so no, they were not included in the sales.

Yes, I have heard a bit about some recent changes of the commercial space. Should be exciting news coming soon. And, if you haven't been to the ice-cream store across the street, it is fantastic! Take your cash because they don't take plastic. Line is about 30 people deep at times, but it moves fairly quickly. Very little parking so walk.

[vinniej3]

We actually went the other night. It was very good ice cream. I'm looking forward to trying the sorbet. I've also become a huge fan of Marie's. Such great folks and great food.

[relax]

Murray i've been tracing the mkt heavy snce 2008 and i think the stats are a little deceiving as now some of the higher end homes with prices down 60% OR MORE ARE SELLING which is bringing the mean and median values up but the fact remains most home prices in most areas of 30-a are still hitting lower lows on price per square foot. i have a question about redfish village. several homes that game back sold from the mls this week and closed in the last week sold at prices that i thought were very high of 299k and 250k at $180-$200 a square foot which based on up to 1/2 a mile walk to beach. my question is there must be a huge difference between the conco's sold at 150k and the one that closed at 299k? the 150k condo's must be at the farthest end of the complex.

[vinniej3]

Relax, Murray and other folks, what's a good price per square foot down on 30-A? I believe we were one of, if not the, first folks to close at RFV. I feel like we got a pretty good deal considering: (inflated) original listing price; top-notch facilities; easy access (I hope I don't open up a can of worms) to the beach; etc. The way I figure, I purchased the unit for $.30 on the dollar (based on original listing prices... I don't know what else to compare it too). In the end, we're very happy to have a little piece of the most beautiful beach in the world. But I'd love to get y'alls opinion on this.

[relax]

vinne those original prices in redfish were fake and i don't even know if any condi's ever sold near what they were asking.so to say .30 cents on fake prices means little.the problem with the village is the distance of 1/2 mile to the beach from the far end of the complex is far. 150k is a good price but who ever paid 299k got a bad deal. at 150k most people can pay cash and not have to worry about renting to pay the bills.

[Murray Balkcom]

Redfish Village will shuttle you to the beach on the electric car. You don't have to walk.

What's a good price per sq ft on 30A? It all depends. Many things will change the price per sq ft like location, age of building, amenities, fit and finish, furnishings, rentability, etc.

Relax, I'm not sure what you mean about the stats being deceiving.
I think this graph shows what you are talking about with the prices being down.

On Redfish Village, I think they probably had one or two condos at the teaser rates, in the north building (M-1), but they have views of the restaurant, parking lot, and back up to future home development at Lakeside at Redfish. M-2 building (east) has views of the lake and pool and will fetch more money. On the note about the teaser rates, I saw several Realtor's websites featuring exceptionally low prices, but I never saw those prices from Redfish Village.

[vinniej3]

Thanks Relax and Murray. I don't think the walk is 1/2 mile; if it is, then it is an easy 1/2 mile walk. The tram gets you there in 1 minute, and they are very responsive! I did not see the 150k sale, but I do know there are one or two non-developer units that were/are in foreclosure. With all the sales/pending sales, I'm guessing RFV can only help condo prices/real estate prices on 30-A; at least in the Blue Mountain Beach area. If we all overpaid (and they all close), won't that help raise value of real estate? In the end, I think we got a pretty good deal!

[relax]

here are the sales the last 7 months or so. i actually measured the milage from the very end of the units to the water at the pulblic access at blue mountain walking up 30-a and taking the left at the 4 way stop and it was near .5 mile

so far there are 4 sales in 2011 160k or less and the lowest is 139k. there are 2 more sales of 180k

[homeboy]

Murray i've been tracing the mkt heavy snce 2008 and i think the stats are a little deceiving as now some of the higher end homes with prices down 60% OR MORE ARE SELLING which is bringing the mean and median values up but the fact remains most home prices in most areas of 30-a are still hitting lower lows on price per square foot. i have a question about redfish village. several homes that game back sold from the mls this week and closed in the last week sold at prices that i thought were very high of 299k and 250k at $180-$200 a square foot which based on up to 1/2 a mile walk to beach. my question is there must be a huge difference between the conco's sold at 150k and the one that closed at 299k? the 150k condo's must be at the farthest end of the complex.

You are absolutely right. Price per square foot continues to fall.

Good example is Watercolor. Excluding Phase IV numbers (which will skew the prices per square foot down), average price per square foot has been falling in all phases since 2007 and they continue to fall in the first half of 2011.

Prices have not bottomed out and will likely continue to fall until the still high number of short sales and foreclosures clear the market.

[homeboy]

Relax, Murray and other folks, what's a good price per square foot down on 30-A? I believe we were one of, if not the, first folks to close at RFV. I feel like we got a pretty good deal considering: (inflated) original listing price; top-notch facilities; easy access (I hope I don't open up a can of worms) to the beach; etc. The way I figure, I purchased the unit for $.30 on the dollar (based on original listing prices... I don't know what else to compare it too). In the end, we're very happy to have a little piece of the most beautiful beach in the world. But I'd love to get y'alls opinion on this.

The most recent sale in Redfish prior to the foreclosure and sale of the remaining units was for $144k in March or about $120 per square foot.

[Murray Balkcom]

I think the question posed by relax is about single family detached homes and not condos, regarding price per sq ft so I will answer that question, though it is off topic of this thread on condos.

Price per sq ft is not something to solely judge the market, but it can be one tool for guidance. As I stated earlier, price per sq ft can change greatly based on size of the house, if there is a carriage house with kitchen and separate AC system, location of home, fit and finish, etc.

If we break down all of South Walton into a specific area like WaterColor, west of hwy 395 (which knocks out all of the lower price points) we run into the statistical problem of not having enough sampling to get any meaningful results. However, we can go a little broader and use home sales solely in areas 17 and 18 (west and east south of hwy 98). And, since the monthly sales vary greatly, lets look at the average price per sq foot per year, instead of per month. That gives us a larger sample which is also more meaningful.
((The following information is gathered from Emerald Coast Association of Realtors (ECAR) and include only sales reported by Realtors.))

sold price per sq ft:
2005: $547/sf
2006: $513/sf
2007: $528/sf
2008: $377/sf
2009: $282/sf
2010: $285/sf
2011 (YTD as of June 20, 1011): $294/sf

Based on the true data reported to ECAR, it seems that price per square foot of homes sold in areas 17 & 18 are actually increasing slightly, though are fairly level over the last 2.5 years. I see no evidence that they are not leveling out or decreasing as some may think. If you have evidence otherwise, please share with us.

[relax]

Murray let me explain my thesis. in 2008-2009 the mkt at the high end froze big time so the $1-$4 mil homes didn't sell well. so now that the mkt loosend up my views are homes in watercolor that sold for $500 a square foot are now selling at $300-$350 a square foot. but since there are many many more of these homes selling its still skewed the price per square foot upwards those keeping the #'s in line for the 3 yr period. summing it up a home that was closing at $1.8 million in watercolor in 2009 is only fetching $1.3 mil now but still the price per square foot is keeping the avg's up. Murray can you do the same per per square foot analysis for homes of $1.5 mil or more sold from 2005-2011? thanks

[Murray Balkcom]

yes, relax.
Looking at homes (detached) in only areas 17 and 18 from 2005-2011, which sold for more than $1.5 million, we see the following price per sq ft:

2005: $931/sf
2006: 815
2007: 832
2008: 680
2009: 613
2010: 578
YTD(June 20) 2011: 685

It appears to me to be somewhat in line with the rest of the field -- prices per sq ft remain fairly constant, but trending up for this particular area.

[relax]

Yes you're correct murray as it appears theres little difference in the high end and lower end. I looked at a home in watercolor on western drive that was listed at 675k at 2100 square feet in dec 2008.so thats about $315 a square foot. thats amazing in 2 1/2 years the price hasn't dropped much as theres very few homes in that 2 1/2 yrs in phase 1,2 or 3 that sold for much under 675k.

[Murray Balkcom]

relax, I appreciate your questions and your thoughts. Discussion always leads to new perspectives.

[30AMichigander]

Guys -

Let me share with you what I have found:

Between May and Aug of 2007 15 units were sold on the 3rd and 4th floor of building M2 for an average price of $1,238,200.00 ( Source - Walton County Assessor Site)

Between May and June 20, 2011 - 9 units closed in building M1 with an average price of $228,688.00 and 18 units in building M2 with an average price of $284,230.

If we look at the most recent closings in M2 on the 3rd and 4th floor, we have 7 units with an average price of $300,101.00 or 25 cents on the dollar from original costs. I believe a great investment!

Anyway you look at it 27 closings in the last 4 weeks, and the balance rumored to be closed by the end of the month is great for Redfish and great for 30A, we should all agree to that.

[30ashopper]

Sanctuary at Redfish has seen similar depreciation - I found a few that went from around $1,150,000 -> 210K then were sold off by a flipper for around 250K. I feel sorry for the folks who got sucked into that auction back in 2008.