NWF Article on 30A Real Estate/Business

**MissSunshine** · 02-24-2009, 10:24 AM

I just read the attached article Hard times in South Walton | walton, businesses, long - News - Northwest Florida Daily News
in regards to the plummenting prices of homes on the 30A.

It's sad that it's come to this but it seems to me that the majority of homes on the 30A are still overpriced. Guess we have alot further to go.

**TooFarTampa** · 02-24-2009, 10:34 AM

Was there a different article about home prices? The one you linked to was all about businesses. I don't agree that how well businesses are doing (especially the newer ones) has much to do with the ultimate prices of housing. The declines have already been severe in residential and I imagine the commercial is now just feeling the fallout.

It was interesting though, thanks for the link!

**MissSunshine** · 02-24-2009, 10:41 AM

You're right, it is an article about businesses on the 30A. I guess having been a business owner (not on the 30A), I was reading between the lines when it comes to home prices. All of this I'd imagine will continue to depress the market and hence home prices.

**DuneLaker** · 02-24-2009, 12:22 PM

The article on business on SoWal and 30A started out with negative news, but then it had more positive business results later in the story. Bud n Alleys was having a good year, for instance, and Dave was expanding with other ventures.

**traderx** · 02-24-2009, 01:01 PM

I have been going through the public mls as well as waltonpa.com to try and measure the housing slide. Macro statistics such as changes in median price are good but nothing beats tracking the same house/condo/land from the market height in 2005/2006 to current. There have been some major price drops. BTW, this is the basic methodology used by the Case-Shiller indices for MSA markets across the country.

One trend I noticed is that the majority of the market is overpriced. I define overpiced as an asking price greater than recent sales comps. This is hardly a science but I try to stick with neighborhoods I know reasonably well. The only relevant price in my view are actual sales. I worry that too many buyers look at current properties on the market and assume that is the market. Also, although the public mls site does not reflect the listing date, many properties have been on the market a long, long time. It suggests that there are two kinds of sellers: motivated and unmotivated. Be careful out there.

**rehunter** · 02-24-2009, 08:09 PM

Be careful indeed Traderx. Couldn't agree with you more. Regardless of a new airport and how well Bud and Alleys is doing. The short to medium term does not look good for 30A. Sure people will still visit as always. But the incredible growth seen over the last 10 years is over. With no industry and the "flipping" sensation a thing of the past. The wild speculation is over...... It was a great ride though and the good news is that it will separate the 30 A pros (you folks) from the wannabes. Standard "thinning of the herd" theory. Time to get back to work.

**AAbsolute** · 02-24-2009, 08:13 PM

Originally Posted by traderx

I have been going through the public mls as well as waltonpa.com to try and measure the housing slide. Macro statistics such as changes in median price are good but nothing beats tracking the same house/condo/land from the market height in 2005/2006 to current. There have been some major price drops. BTW, this is the basic methodology used by the Case-Shiller indices for MSA markets across the country.

One trend I noticed is that the majority of the market is overpriced. I define overpiced as an asking price greater than recent sales comps. This is hardly a science but I try to stick with neighborhoods I know reasonably well. The only relevant price in my view are actual sales. I worry that too many buyers look at current properties on the market and assume that is the market. Also, although the public mls site does not reflect the listing date, many properties have been on the market a long, long time. It suggests that there are two kinds of sellers: motivated and unmotivated. Be careful out there.

I agree to look to sales. For me asking price is only relevant where there is limited inventory. I look to Walton P A, but I'm not sure how current it is. Have you figured out the lead time yet? I check the Official Records 3 times a day for upto the minute.

SmilingJoe shared that public mls link, but it seems to leave out quite a bit from the 'hoods I track.

**traderx** · 02-24-2009, 08:26 PM

Originally Posted by AAbsolute

I agree to look to sales. For me asking price is only relevant where there is limited inventory. I look to Walton P A, but I'm not sure how current it is. Have you figured out the lead time yet? I check the Official Records 3 times a day for upto the minute.

SmilingJoe shared that public mls link, but it seems to leave out quite a bit from the 'hoods I track.

Waltonpa.com just posted January sales several days ago so they are running two to three weeks it appears. The public mls is to see what is being offered for sale. I see some huge disconnects.

Here is my challenge: I want to buy down there. I really do. I am probably a candidate to build because I don't like the finishes of most homes on the market. White kitchen cabinets for example.... But, I have no interest in catching a falling knife so this is my attempt to really understand the market. I like the sales pair approach because it shifts the analysis from averages to the real world.