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Nationally, nearly half of 2006 buyers are upside down
From the Palm Beach Post via Florida Trend:
Shelly. . . . .?During the region's historic housing boom, home ownership was a can't-miss way to build wealth.
How quickly things have changed.
Most area homeowners who jumped on the housing bandwagon during 2005, 2006 and 2007 owe more than their homes are worth, according to a study released this week by Zillow, the Seattle-based Web site best known for its estimates of home values.
Fully 76.2 percent of homes bought in 2006 in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties are now worth less than the balance on the mortgages, the study says.
In the Treasure Coast, a whopping 80.5 percent of borrowers who bought homes in 2006 are upside down.
"It's pretty startling," Zillow spokeswoman Amy Bohutinsky said. "This is what leads to foreclosures."
Not everyone who is upside down on their loan will go into default, of course. Most borrowers can afford to ride out the downturn until the market improves, Bohutinsky said.
But selling now nearly guarantees a loss for those who bought during the boom. In South Florida, 29.2 percent of homes sold during the second quarter of this year fetched less than the seller had paid, Zillow found. In the Treasure Coast, 36.2 percent of homes sold in April, May and June created a loss for the seller.
Nationally, 45 percent of borrowers who bought homes in 2006 owe more than the homes are worth, according to Zillow. Because of the steep rise and fall in home prices in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast, higher numbers of borrowers are upside down.
"I'm not surprised by that," Neal Taslitz, a foreclosure attorney in West Palm Beach, said of Zillow's numbers. "This is a tsunami, and it's getting worse."
In a separate study released today, RealtyTrac said Florida foreclosure activity in July increased 14 percent from June and 139 percent from July 2007. The state had 45,884 properties with foreclosure filings, second highest in the nation.
The housing meltdown is hurting not just high-risk borrowers who overreached. Even cautious borrowers are feeling the squeeze, said mortgage banker Bill Davis, head of Private Funding Specialists in Palm Beach Gardens.
"This has gone from subprime to prime," Davis said. "People with 700 credit scores are getting crushed. Those are the ones who break your heart, because they've done everything right."
Davis offers this example: Say you paid $400,000 for a home in 2006 and made a down payment of 10 percent - a hefty sum in those days of loose lending standards. Today, though, the home might be worth only $325,000 - significantly less than your $360,000 mortgage.
If you want to sell your home, you'll have to write a check to the lender. Many homeowners have little choice but to go into foreclosure, Davis said.
Some Realtors questioned the accuracy of Zillow's figures. After all, the company's so-called automated valuations of homes are notorious for making dubious comparisons when calculating home prices.
"I have a very skeptical view of Zillow," said John Mike, chairman of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.
Scott Agran, president of Lang Realty of Boca Raton, also criticized Zillow's numbers. He agreed that the market has been in a deep downturn, but he predicted that home values will come back strong.
"We've been in free-fall since 2005," Agran said. "We're back to 2002 pricing. This is a tremendous buying opportunity."Follow your bliss and the Universe will open doors where there were only walls. ~ Joseph Campbell
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Where the heck is Shelly? He/She hasn't posted in a while. Hope he/she is ok.
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08-16-2008, 07:47 PM #3
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Does anybody believe in buying property for an amount where its mortage payment should be at or near its rental rate? When, why, and how did we come to consider this aberrant. What were people calculating?
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08-16-2008, 08:26 PM #5
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I would presume that real buyers today do what I do and put 20% as a down payment. With 20% down on 1.5 that house payment would be equal to the rental rate.
Have you seen what those homes are renting for in Watersound Beach? I'm not trying to be a smart a**, I'm serious.
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09-02-2008, 09:40 AM #7
AAbsolute:
Could you provide the address on these two lots? Were they on Salt Box Lane near the entrance of WS, or nearer the beach?
Thanks
Little Fish
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09-02-2008, 11:57 AM #8
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09-02-2008, 12:05 PM #9
If one wishes to live among Post Offices, cafes, "fitness centers" (why named? few are fit, or get fit, that go there?) bleat bleat bleat then one should be also willing to cry small tears only when they are rigorously crucified for buying into that scene in the first place.
Although there is no hiding from land valuation, market adjustments (back to reality), if one is willing to travel 5 miles instead of 500 feet to "get fit", mail the rare package or sup a cup, then they may find small enclaves with strict deed and other restrictions which they can exert greater control, quicker full lot sell-offs and some insulation from being, in this case, JOEed.
Last edited by TheSheep; 09-02-2008 at 05:39 PM.
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09-02-2008, 01:18 PM #10
AAbsolute:
Thanks for the info. Looks to me like these two lots were owned by St. Joe. Do you know if these were inventory lots that were finally released?
Also, I agree with your comment regarding lot loan renewals. I suspect some lot owners will run into difficulties with comps when it comes to renewing loans. Banks aren't offering the same types of products they did a few years ago. 3 yr. IO lot loans are harder to find. Banks now want aggressive amortization.
Little Fish
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09-02-2008, 03:25 PM #11
Joe has been slowly working off remaining lot inventory (not talking about Phase IV in WC and WS West Beach) over the last few years in Watersound and Watercolor. The interesting thing I have noted on many of these occasional sales is that the prices folks are paying to Joe are actually higher than where some similar/nearby resale lots are listed for and much higher than recent sales prices in some cases. I don't get it. Maybe these buyers are relying only on the Joe sales agents to show them property and not doing any real research on their own. Throwing money down the drain in most of these cases--could have had just as nice a property for less money.
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09-02-2008, 04:03 PM #12But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)
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09-02-2008, 08:04 PM #13
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Not an assumption, it's a fact...
This is not an assumption, it's a fact. People who bought a lot for 950,000 from JOE in '05 next to a lot sold by JOE in '08 for 1/3 the price are going to have to bring hundreds of thousands of dollars to their loan renewals or post other personal property equal to hundreds of thousands of dollars which will be locked down as security.
I know there are about 20 vacant lots JOE sold in '05 adjacent to these new sales that are in this boat. I don't blame JOE. It is the problem of those who paid $950,000. I doubt anyone at JOE ever really guaranteed these folks anything. Such is life.
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09-02-2008, 08:13 PM #14
WaterSound Beach lots
At least in my buyers case the main motivations for purchasing one of those lots for $315k were size, build out, free beach club membership and 2 years dues paid. The beach club and the build outs are still a major part of the buying process in WaterSound right now and because we are dealing with mostly end users they are not willing to take the chance that St Joe may or may not enforce build outs and may or may not allow access to the club at some point. I wish the beach club wasn't such an issue right now because it it hurting a lot of my sellers being able to sell if they don't have the beach club but Joe doesn't seem to be budging when it comes to this issue. I have been on both side of this equation and I can understand both sides so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
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09-02-2008, 08:23 PM #15
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You know the answer to the big question...
Hills, You were there in '05 when I used to boom up potential buyers for JOE with my bucket truck so they could assess their views before entering the lottery. What did JOE promise or guarantee these folks in Phase IV who were lined up to buy lots at 980,000 to 1,032,000 right next to these for 315,000? People want to know....
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09-02-2008, 10:01 PM #16
Don't blame JOE? Caveat Emptor? Is it not a lie to withhold historical fact? What answers were given when lot buyers asked "Will JOE ever become our competitor, the root of a severe devaluation of our land?
There is larceny in the hearts on both sides of the buy-sell equation with JOE. One ignobleness in which we refuse to partake so I can bleat with no hypocrisy attached.
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09-03-2008, 05:51 AM #17
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09-02-2008, 03:33 PM #18
Fisher:
I've noted the same regarding Joe lots selling at prices higher than close comparables. One reason why some buyers might pay higher prices could have everything to do with longer build-out dates relative to current listings.
Little Fish
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09-02-2008, 08:58 PM #20
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I thought we were talking about Watercolor in the previous thread. Maybe in Watersound it is not to late for the developer to uniformly enforce the build out Memorandums which might give them a better chance at law.
Until now you would have to be lucky like say, FlyForFun, in order to have JOE force you on the issue. Very few others have been faced with the prospect.
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09-02-2008, 08:11 PM #21
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Sorry Little Fish, but I can't agree this time. Everything JOE sold around these lots in the past was way more expensive (About $670,000 more = 200%). Further, if you check out JOE's own resale customers lists you will find that they even undercut them to sell these new lots.
I know it sounds cruel, but you can't blame them. They have property to sell and competitive advantage. They'll continue to pummel the competition for at least 4 more years.
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09-02-2008, 08:55 PM #22
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09-02-2008, 04:12 PM #23
MissCritter:
Yes, I am also of the opinion that it would be difficult to enforce the build-outs; however, it's still a risk and Joe probably knows they can charge extra for that risk. I wouldn't pay the premium, but I guess others have.
Little Fish
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09-02-2008, 08:19 PM #24
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Look a little deeper into the HUD 1's and you'll see that there are quite a number of incentives that JOE has been offering that make the public record look different than it really is. It's not just build out's. When a developer gives extended relief on costs that are fixed for existing owners some might consider it cash back at closing.
I should add that I didn't finish conventional high school and I may be looking at this a little to rudimentary.
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I remember seeing an original pricing sheet for the Retreat when it was still a JOE development. I can guarantee that you will never see prices like that again in the Retreat. I believe gulf front lots were going for around $400,000.
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09-03-2008, 08:32 AM #26
Hillsatthebeach:
Thanks for your comment. If Joe is including 2 years dues and beach club memberships along with the new build-outs, I can see why it may be difficult for existing owners to sell. That said, don't the current lot owners have the ability to purchase beach club memberships? If so, that could help their case.
Little Fish
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09-03-2008, 10:07 AM #28
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09-03-2008, 11:09 AM #29
WaterSound Beach
Currently the only way a new buyer in WaterSound can purchase a beach club membership is to buy a property that currently has a membership tied to that property or to purchase from St. Joe in the WaterSound communities. Like I said I understand why Joe has set the club up this way but I also see how it is hurting sellers and sales in general in WaterSound and I wish there could be a more positive solution.
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09-03-2008, 11:39 AM #30
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JOE gave us fair warning and a limited time offer to purchase Beach Club Memberships. I don't understand existing owners complaining now about wanting to join. It seems the most educated and fortunate people should live with a little more gratitude than to constantly want to change the rules.
You watch, in the future when the Watersound Beach Club becomes overcrowded to the point of not being beneficial Members will complain about that too. You've been there as much as I have. Don't you think with the 1,500 possible new members that it will be overcrowded? This season is just the 2nd season and we could not always find a spot to set up.
I really think that in time the Dunesider will be more exclusive and private than our Members only Beach Club.
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09-03-2008, 12:12 PM #31
don't worry. When Joe really needs the revenue, they will open up the membership gate to all owners again. Right now, they are using the club as a gimmick to sell their own lots. It won't last forever. If you own in WS and want a membership, it's only a matter of time before you can buy one.
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09-03-2008, 10:05 AM #32
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JOE gave all Watersound existing lot or homeowners an opportunity to buy Beach Club memberships and has since closed the Beach Club to existing lot and homeowners. The only properties that JOE is giving the Beach Club entitlement to is their own inventory of new lots and homes.
Again, this is a part of JOE's competitive advantage over their existing customers.
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Please pardon my ignorance, but precisely what is included in Beach Club membership? Doesn't the desirability of the property decline considerably without it? And why build a beachside development with a club that can only accommodate a small portion of owners?
Follow your bliss and the Universe will open doors where there were only walls. ~ Joseph Campbell
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09-03-2008, 11:51 AM #35
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09-03-2008, 12:01 PM #36
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Watersound Beach has abundant gulf front property that is open to anyone in Watersound Beach. The Watersound Beach Club has a very private gated entrance. Within the Beach Club property is the only tennis facility in Watersound Beach. In addition there is a very nice restaurant with a gulf front bar above. The nicest pool in the neighborhood is in the club and there are some private rooms that they hold activities in for neighborhood kids, etc.
Those are the benefits as I see them. At the same time there is always the Emperors New Clothes syndrome with these types of things. At this time JOE is adding Beach Club membership as incentive on 100's of their developer owned properties. I don't know the current membership stat's but I would bet that there are more current members than the capacity approved by the Fire Marshall for the club or the simming pool occupancy load by the Health Department. We will see in time how this develops.
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09-03-2008, 12:15 PM #37
The beach club was necessary to entice Watersound North homeowners to buy. Gives them guaranteed beach access.
There are other pools for WS and WSWB homeowners to use if they don't belong to the "ultra exclusive" beach club. Waste of money for WS and WSWB homeowners to join IMHO.
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09-03-2008, 05:29 PM #38
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Florida statute 718.301 covers the transfer of association control for condominiums.
I was wrong, if it's less that 50% sold then it's 7 years.
Florida chapter 718 does not cover homeowner's associations, chapter 720 does and does not cover HOA's.
In addition WC and WS are mixed developments. All of the condominiums (attached units with common elements) fall under the COA act and then the homes portion falls under the HOA act. To further complicate this each Phase is it's own umbrella association over that phase. Ultimately there is a master association and that follows the COA due to COA's within the structure.
Hope that helps.
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09-06-2008, 07:16 AM #40
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JOE sold what?
Yesterday JOE increased their quarterly revenues by $512,000.00 they sold another developer owned lot in Watersound Beach. Maybe it'll be an iproved quarter.
The family who bought the lot next door from JOE for $971,000.00 3 years ago probably isn't quite as happy, but caveat empor. No?
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09-06-2008, 11:18 AM #41But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)
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09-06-2008, 12:10 PM #42
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09-06-2008, 12:16 PM #43
Last edited by SHELLY; 09-06-2008 at 12:18 PM.
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)
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SHELLY, aren't you forgetting that JOE's revenue isn't purely real estate sales. Unfortunately when Starbucks leaves they'll loose that rental revenue, but they still have plenty of other rental property.
That and there was the announcement of a joint effort to add more retail space by Pier Park. 58 acres if IIRC.
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09-10-2008, 05:30 AM #45
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I think I read that JOE sold the Watercolor Crossings/Publix shopping center last summer. Does JOE keep other income producing rental properties or do they own amenity based properties that they may or may not turn a profit on? It does seem that if anyone could make it work JOE could do very well with commercial and other rental.
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09-10-2008, 10:43 AM #46
I'm pretty sure JOE sold off all its commercial RE. Their financials for 2008 are showing zip for Commercial Rental Revenue vs. @ $600K the year previous. (Or maybe their tenants just stopped paying the rent this year
)
From their Aug 8K:
After the close of the second quarter, JOE and Glimcher Realty Trust entered into a strategic partnership to develop an anchored retail shopping center across from Pier Park along Highway 98 in Panama City Beach. JOE and Glimcher will jointly develop 58 acres that will be marketed to large national retail outlets.
The agreement is subject to minimum leasing requirements, financing and other customary conditions.
.......I recommend you don't hold your breath waiting for this one to start cranking out a profit.
.Last edited by SHELLY; 09-10-2008 at 10:53 AM.
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)
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...proof positive that the "Greater Fool" isn't an extinct species afterall.
...they have someone on the payroll that watches trends and then either raises or lowers the price. Just take a look at how they treat their Camp Creek members.








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