Hurricane Bertha

[30ashopper]

Here we go again? ...

[kurt]

All but one model has it heading north for now.

[Cil]

I am certainly keeping an eye on Bertha.

[Bobby J]

This thing looks like it will make some really funn swell on the East Coast! Lets just hope it turns north when it supposed to so we just get swell!

[Smiling JOe]

www.weatherunderground.com

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:41 AM EDT on July 05, 2008

Tropical Storm Bertha has maintained it's strength overnight, but is having trouble with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 25°C--one degree below the threshold of 26°C considered beneficial for tropical storms. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed Bertha, but last night's pass confirmed winds of at least 40mph. Satellite estimates of Bertha's strength have consistently put the storm's strength at 50 mph over the past day. The storm is under about 10-15 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Bertha.

The forecast
The models are now more confident that Bertha will not take a turn to the north east of Bermuda, with two models--the UKMET and NOGAPS--calling for the storm to pass very near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. These islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions as early as Tuesday night, even though the current official track keeps Bertha well north of the islands. Bertha may be large enough to bring tropical storm force winds 100-200 miles from the center by Tuesday. A threat to the East Coast of the U.S. is now possible, with such an event most likely to occur about 7-10 days from now. It is also possible that high wind shear will tear apart Bertha (as predicted by the ECMWF model), or that the storm will recurve to the north just east of North Carolina, missing the U.S. The long range track of Bertha is highly uncertain, and it is too early to speculate how likely each of these scenarios is.

By Sunday morning, Bertha will be over SSTs of 26°C, which will warm to 27°C by Monday and 28°C Tuesday. this should allow Bertha to intensify to near Category 1 hurricane strength. However, by Tuesday, wind shear is expected to increase to 20 knots and remain high for several days, as Bertha encounters a branch of the subtropical jet stream. The higher shear should weaken the storm.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

I'll post an update by Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters

[30ashopper]

I'm kinda hoping it stays weak and makes landfall over georgia, sounds like they could use the rain.

[rapunzel]

It rolled off Cape Verde so textbook....I don't think that she'll be a problem, but I hate to see the storms looking so perfect so early.

[Sheila]

I'm kinda hoping it stays weak and makes landfall over georgia, sounds like they could use the rain.

Amen to that. We'll take as much or as little as we can get, and be proud to have it.

[SWGB]

My favorite is the historical tracks, me thinks we're safe.

[Alicia Leonard]

Bermuda residents urged to keep eye on major storm

MIAMI - Less than a day after becoming the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, Bertha surprised forecasters Monday by quickly growing to become a major storm with maximum sustained speeds of 115 mph.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25565250?GT1=43001

[Bobby J]

East coast here I come!!!!

[Bobby J]

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hur...x?animate=true

Looking funn and safe for all as long as she heads north!

[Bobby J]

THAR SHE BLOWS... Bertha's ground swell now showing on thenortheastern Bahamas buoy nearly doubling overnight to 8'+ @ 13 seconds! The ground swell will work its way around the Bahamas banks Thursday morning, starting to arrive and build during the afternoon to take the surf to the next level Friday on into the weekend.

[Beachbummett]

THAR SHE BLOWS... Bertha's ground swell now showing on thenortheastern Bahamas buoy nearly doubling overnight to 8'+ @ 13 seconds! The ground swell will work its way around the Bahamas banks Thursday morning, starting to arrive and build during the afternoon to take the surf to the next level Friday on into the weekend.

Have funn! Be safe! Post some pics. You can drop my little blonde haired son off at the house tomorrow afternoon.

[Bobby J]

Have funn! Be safe! Post some pics. You can drop my little blonde haired son off at the house tomorrow afternoon.

Just got back from surfing Bertha! It would easier to tell you where I don't hurt. Good time but I am soooooo sore!