Panhandle real estate boom just starting

[ecopal]

Planet Realtor *>* Florida *>* News *>* Daily

Real estate experts forecast growth

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Nov. 7, 2005 -- Forget the I-4 corridor. Interstate 10 and this area of North Florida are poised to be the next hot spot for real-estate development, according to some real-estate experts.

That's because lack of available land and water supplies as well as growth-management problems are continuing to plague South Florida.

"We've recently become a part of Florida now," said Will Butler, of the St. Joe Land Co. Butler was among the real-estate experts and more than 500 attendees Friday who shared their knowledge of the industry at Florida State University's Real Estate Trends & Networking Conference.

The conference, in its 11th year, was held at the University Center Club.

"I believe - whether we want to see this area of the state change or not - we will see unprecedented growth along I-10," Butler said.

But that growth will come in stages, experts say, as many residents still want to live in bigger cities in Central and South Florida.

Currently those cities are seeing exponential growth in condominiums. But many additional condo projects might not get off the drawing board, according to real-estate officials.

They see a slowdown of more expensive condos, and more affordable ones may come into the market. But sales, said real-estate officials, didn't seemed to have been affected by the hurricanes.

The rental market, however, has seen a backlash.

The demand for more condos means more condo conversions. Tampa Bay, said Michael Slater, with TRAIAD Research & Consulting, has lost at least 25,000 rental units because of conversions.

And that's too bad because "it's a good time to own rental assets," Slater said, "They're just hard to find."

Historically, Florida's rental market growth has been faster than that of the nation. Nationally, the growth rate was around 2.45 percent. Most Florida metro markets realized growth of about 4 percent a year. But now the rate is 6 percent to 10 percent a year.

Similar growth rates also are being seen in the retail office market area.

Trend watchers reported that the Florida office market is outperforming that of any other state. Only Washington, D.C., is doing better. Statewide, vacancy rates hover at about 13.7 percent.

In Florida, retail office space still can be rented around $20 a square foot, according to Paul Ellis, of the Trammel Crow Co.

Because of Florida's low office rental rates, more companies are doing regional relocations. The state's natural resources and lack of a personal income tax are also attractive to companies. It also has a strong labor pool. There are at least 50 colleges and universities in the Orlando area alone.

Prices for office space will rise, said experts, because of land and construction costs and operating expenses, as reasons. But the good news, they say, is that the market will remain competitive.

George Banks, Summit East's operations manager, believes he's seeing that already.

Banks handles leasing for the technology park at U.S. 90 East and Interstate 10, which plans to build at least 10 to 12 other buildings. Currently, its three buildings are 100-percent leased.

"The demand is there for our product," Banks said. "And based on this, it looks like it will continue to be strong."

Copyright © 2005 Tallahassee Democrat, Juana Jordan. All Rights Reserved.

*

[Dabell]

Planet Realtor *>* Florida *>* News *>* Daily

Real estate experts forecast growth

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Nov. 7, 2005 -- Forget the I-4 corridor. Interstate 10 and this area of North Florida are poised to be the next hot spot for real-estate development, according to some real-estate experts.

That's because lack of available land and water supplies as well as growth-management problems are continuing to plague South Florida.

"We've recently become a part of Florida now," said Will Butler, of the St. Joe Land Co. Butler was among the real-estate experts and more than 500 attendees Friday who shared their knowledge of the industry at Florida State University's Real Estate Trends & Networking Conference.

The conference, in its 11th year, was held at the University Center Club.

"I believe - whether we want to see this area of the state change or not - we will see unprecedented growth along I-10," Butler said.

But that growth will come in stages, experts say, as many residents still want to live in bigger cities in Central and South Florida.

Currently those cities are seeing exponential growth in condominiums. But many additional condo projects might not get off the drawing board, according to real-estate officials.

They see a slowdown of more expensive condos, and more affordable ones may come into the market. But sales, said real-estate officials, didn't seemed to have been affected by the hurricanes.

The rental market, however, has seen a backlash.

The demand for more condos means more condo conversions. Tampa Bay, said Michael Slater, with TRAIAD Research & Consulting, has lost at least 25,000 rental units because of conversions.

And that's too bad because "it's a good time to own rental assets," Slater said, "They're just hard to find."

Historically, Florida's rental market growth has been faster than that of the nation. Nationally, the growth rate was around 2.45 percent. Most Florida metro markets realized growth of about 4 percent a year. But now the rate is 6 percent to 10 percent a year.

Similar growth rates also are being seen in the retail office market area.

Trend watchers reported that the Florida office market is outperforming that of any other state. Only Washington, D.C., is doing better. Statewide, vacancy rates hover at about 13.7 percent.

In Florida, retail office space still can be rented around $20 a square foot, according to Paul Ellis, of the Trammel Crow Co.

Because of Florida's low office rental rates, more companies are doing regional relocations. The state's natural resources and lack of a personal income tax are also attractive to companies. It also has a strong labor pool. There are at least 50 colleges and universities in the Orlando area alone.

Prices for office space will rise, said experts, because of land and construction costs and operating expenses, as reasons. But the good news, they say, is that the market will remain competitive.

George Banks, Summit East's operations manager, believes he's seeing that already.

Banks handles leasing for the technology park at U.S. 90 East and Interstate 10, which plans to build at least 10 to 12 other buildings. Currently, its three buildings are 100-percent leased.

"The demand is there for our product," Banks said. "And based on this, it looks like it will continue to be strong."

Copyright © 2005 Tallahassee Democrat, Juana Jordan. All Rights Reserved.

*

Well I wish It would boom and I could sell my place!

[hi n dry]

Dabell: I hope you can sell your property but don't get too anxious - now buyers seem to be "cherry picking" some prime properties at bargain prices in this is unprecedented buying opportunity environment.

In the last week we have been seeing a significant increase in activity on our lot on 30a. However, our lot is unique in that it is large, walking distance to the beach, and has no build out time. It also has an elevation that is above historical storm surge levels yet is close enough to
the beach to have a view.

[hi n dry]

DaBell:

FYI we have actually decreased our price by about $100,000 since we listed it. However, based on the trend of buyers looking for beach property with a high elevation and above historical storm surge levels we will be returning our price to the original appropriate level very soon-perhaps within a couple of weeks.

30a has the highest coastal elevation of any property in Florida or for that matter in the southern US. The current high inventory of property on 30a masks the fact that such high elevation coastal property really is rare.

We are now noticing the appearence of "smart money investors" out there bargain hunting.We have had a perfect storm of negative factors influencing the market which makes it it good time to buy but not sell.

If you can wait until March and April to sell you might want to hold on. We are now begining to see the convergence of a number of positive elements which may launch the appreciation of prices again.

[SHELLY]

Florida Real Estate Slowdown

Looks like apartment REITS are the ticket

[ecopal]

to SHELLY-thanks for the article.
I am not surpised that the central Florida Land O' Lakes market is slowing. What surpises me is that anyone wanted to buy there in the first place.

I love Scenic 30A!

[SHELLY]

to SHELLY-thanks for the article.
I am not surpised that the central Florida Land O' Lakes market is slowing. What surpises me is that anyone wanted to buy there in the first place.

I love Scenic 30A!

Today on CNBC a big-time mortgage guy said business is way, way down now that easy money has dried up. He also said many of his family members (who are well-placed REMAX agents in the Sarasota and west coast Florida area) are letting him know in no uncertain terms that buyers are few and far between for their ever expanding <and probably overpriced> listings.

Housing demand isn't going to go away--it will, however, revert back to the mean (which ISN'T double digit appreciation, buyers camping out and 3 turnovers in a week).

[Miss Kitty]

Today on CNBC a big-time mortgage guy said business is way, way down now that easy money has dried up. He also said many of his family members (who are well-placed REMAX agents in the Sarasota and west coast Florida area) are letting him know in no uncertain terms that buyers are few and far between for their ever expanding <and probably overpriced> listings.

Housing demand isn't going to go away--it will, however, revert back to the mean (which ISN'T double digit appreciation, buyers camping out and 3 turnovers in a week).

And you know what SHELLY...for me that's just peachy!!!! IMHO, extremes in anything finally even out....it's like that old pendulum.

[bsullie]

OK...lots of you are familiar with the area and maybe have some good suggestions for dependable, reliable remodelers. We have plans, permit and are ready to go. Tired of waiting on a fllaky guy who refuses to get his act together and get started. Frustrated!!

[kurt]

OK...lots of you are familiar with the area and maybe have some good suggestions for dependable, reliable remodelers. We have plans, permit and are ready to go. Tired of waiting on a fllaky guy who refuses to get his act together and get started. Frustrated!!

You should start a new thread.

[Miss Kitty]

You should start a new thread.

...and take some Advil for that headache!!!

[ecopal]

to SHELLY,
I agree that this summer has been -and still is as far as I know-a buyer's market and that there are more listings than buyers . However, what the original article that initiated this thread is saying is that our area has considerably more POTENTIAL for growth than the grid locked "old Florida " to the south.

The article does meantion that the Panhandle has better water resources. But it fails to indicate that it has the only coastal property in Florida that is above even the highest recorded storm surge levels-specifically 30A.

Scenic 30A has the potential to become even more exclusive and expensive than it already is--not that I am hoping for that . Now could be a good buying opportunity -especially for selective "cherry picking"and bargain hunting -on 30A. However, I do not feel very optimistic about most other areas in Florida including any low lying areas in the Panhandle.

[TooFarTampa]

I absolutely agree with you, ecopal. Look for the building codes to get even tighter all around the state. And with so many of the houses already in compliance with better building codes (remember -- Seaside made it through Opal just fine), combined with the height above sea level, I suspect it won't be too long before it is "discovered" by the masses. The only people really in trouble are the owners of the gulf front homes that can't take any more storms. I feel for all of them.

[SHELLY]

(remember -- Seaside made it through Opal just fine), .

Opal hit miles and miles and miles from Seaside (Navarre to be exact). What if Opal--or Ivan--or Katrina--or Rita--had hit Destin smack in the chops? With Seaside on (and much closer to) the "bad side" of either of those I doubt the outcome would have been as rosy.

[Just_In_Thyme]

The eye of Hurricane Opal crossed the coast near Santa Rosa Island around 6:00 pm on October 4th. In a very fortunate turn of events - Opal weakened greatly in the final 8 hours before landfall, although still coming ashore at the lower end of a major hurricane. Sustained winds of 115 mph, with gusts to 140 mph, occurred across a short stretch of coastline between Destin and Panama City, Florida. Outside of the narrow stretch of coastline, winds of 80 to 100 mph were experienced. Hurlburt Air Field, near the eye of Opal, recorded 92 mph winds, gusting to 144 mph. Panama City recorded sustained winds of 65 mph with a peak gust of 86 mph.

Storm surge was recorded between 8-14 feet.

Even if it had come closer I believe the outcome in the Seaside/30-A area would not have been much different.

Do you really hate it here so much?

[SHELLY]

Even if it had come closer I believe the outcome in the Seaside/30-A area would not have been much different.

Folks who were REALLY on to the "business" side of of any of those hurricanes would disagree.

[monty]

The eye of Hurricane Opal crossed the coast near Santa Rosa Island around 6:00 pm on October 4th. In a very fortunate turn of events - Opal weakened greatly in the final 8 hours before landfall, although still coming ashore at the lower end of a major hurricane. Sustained winds of 115 mph, with gusts to 140 mph, occurred across a short stretch of coastline between Destin and Panama City, Florida. Outside of the narrow stretch of coastline, winds of 80 to 100 mph were experienced. Hurlburt Air Field, near the eye of Opal, recorded 92 mph winds, gusting to 144 mph. Panama City recorded sustained winds of 65 mph with a peak gust of 86 mph.

Storm surge was recorded between 8-14 feet.

Even if it had come closer I believe the outcome in the Seaside/30-A area would not have been much different.

Do you really hate it here so much?

I believe a direct hit by a 4 or especially a 5 would devastate the area along 30A. Few of the dunes are high enough to withstand a 25 foot storm surge. We would have flooding inland in most areas for hundreds/thousands of feet, especially with all the dune lakes and the bay that would get us from the backside. There would be widespread destruction by the surge. No one along any coast is safe from a cat 5 monster.

[Donna]

I agree with Monty about the strong Cat 4 or 5 storm. If the storm itself is extremely large and comes in at high tide, as Ivan did, then the devastation will be huge and will be far more encompassing than being on the low side of dunes or flood elevation levels. Most properties between the Gulf and Highway 20 will be heavily damaged if not destroyed. If we have a strong 4 or 5 hurricane, I assume our home at Grayton will be completely destroyed. I assumed as much with Ivan before it turned westward and lost some of its strength.

In October of 1995, Opal came ashore as a Cat 3 with a 16-ft. storm surge. It destroyed 20 to 30-ft. dunes (that have yet to recover) and washed older houses off their foundations (including the former 100-yr. old "Conch Out"). It also took out almost every mature tree in the Lake DeFuniak Lakeyard park. To think that you are safe from one of these monsters because you're on somewhat higher ground than Gulf-front is delusional. For that matter, folks in buildings that exceed three stories actually get the higher force hurricane winds. Best we can hope for is that our 35-yr. history holds, that most storms tend to clock westerward because of their counter-clockwise motion. For one to move directly north into South Walton from the Gulf usually requires a very strong front pressing in from the northwest, mercifully rare that time of the year.

[hi n dry]

I agree that if you are in an area of less than 30 feet elevation you are very vulnerable. This would include any of the areas around the coastal lakes such as Draper, Oyster, Eastern, Western, Redfish Lakes etc.

Most areas of the Old Seagrove Beach area are over 30 feet in elevation which is higher than most of both Seaside and Watercolors. Sure Old Seagrove Beach could be overwhelmed in the perfect CAT. 5 storm but in the unlikely scenario that it was washed over there would be nothing else left: Destin, Sandestin, Panama City Beach, Fort Walton Beach and Navarre and Pensacola Beach would all be gone. Also note that some of the trees in OLd Seagrove Beach are hundreds of years old.

If I was lucky enough to have a home in Old Seagrove above 30 feet sea level I would not be too worried about storm surge unless I was right on the water. However being the pessimist I am, I might still buy flood insurance because is not that expensive.

I remember in the last big hurricane here even low lying areas like Grayton Beach survived inspite of their low elevation. The Red Bar was filled with sand and had to be shoveled out and the old Grayton cafe was destroyed just across the street. But older cottages just a block inland survived. And this was when the bridges at Eastern Lake and Western Lake were washed out.

[Donna]

Flood insurance is always wise, because most flooding damage is not caused by actual Gulf storm surge. For example, if there is a frog-strangler rain and water goes into your house, you need flood insurance to cover the damage. Incidentally, damage goes beyond just drying the place out. If the water has touched the ground at all, the house really should be water vacuumed, dehumidified with many of those huge blowers (about $500/day for three days minimum) and then checked for residual moisture. You should also toss any carpet and padding (or other household items) that come into contact with such water.

[WiLe]

Flood insurance is always wise, because most flooding damage is not caused by actual Gulf storm surge. For example, if there is a frog-strangler rain and water goes into your house, you need flood insurance to cover the damage. Incidentally, damage goes beyond just drying the place out. If the water has touched the ground at all, the house really should be water vacuumed, dehumidified with many of those huge blowers (about $500/day for three days minimum) and then checked for residual moisture. You should also toss any carpet and padding (or other household items) that come into contact with such water.

I live in Orange Beach, Alabama and went through Ivan. I'll second the suggestion that everybody - regardless of whether or not you live on the coast - needs flood insurance. The insurance companies are very particular about what is their responsibility and its better to be covered from both ends. Flood insurance is cheap - for now anyway.

As for the elevation. My home was "built up' 8 1/2 feet above ground level. We got 18 inches of water in our home, but no roof damage. The homes in the development behind us are on pilings (which puts them up a good bit higher than us) and didn't flood but they lost much of their roofs. In a storm the size of Ivan (and Ivan was nothing compared to Katrina), the only thing I believe is "safe" is the newly constructed, steel, concrete and glass condos. Everything else, pray.

Also, I'll offer a suggestion. If you ever have the misfortune of getting water in your home through the roof or from the ground up, save yourself some work and worry, call a water damage restoration company and have them dry your home out. For us, they removed all the sheetrock 5 feet up, all the tile and carpet, all the doors, all cabinets, all appliances - basically everything that the water touched, so that also means all of your furniture and some of your clothing. We had 19 industrial grade dehumidifiers in our home for over a week. Insurance will pay for all this, so its best to get one of these companies before they're to busy to get to you. Some of them - like ours- will also contract to build your house back. Its really amazing what kind of damage water can do to your home in a short time - especially salt water.

[Paula]

This is all interesting and useful. What are the names of the water damage restoration companies in the area if we ever need them (perish the thought, of course!)?

[WiLe]

The company we used was WaterMark Restoration out of Birmingham. There are many more. You can find them on the net by searching "water restoration" or "disaster restoration." I forgot to say that some of these companies will file your insurance claim and negotiate with the insurance companies. I think the standard charge is about 2% of the claim, but, from what I've seen, they'll get you back a lot more than that, with less effort and worry.

[Donna]

With the Ivan storm surge, we had about two inches of water in our ground floor. It is imperative to get a water extraction company in immediately, because "black" water (that which has been in contact with the ground) will immediately start to smell and deposit bacteria. We used Beachy Clean, a Destin firm, and were very happy with their work. They ripped out all the carpeting and pads (which we had intended to remove that year and replace with stone, anyway), took out the baseboards, set up 12 huge dehumidifiers, then came back twice to test for moisture/mold with special equipment. The flood insurance covererd every single item submitted, including various items on the floors in closets that had to be thrown away. The deductible on flood insurance is $500. We had a check in hand before the charge card expenses for Beachy Clean came in. After we added the stone tile floors and Dennis came through, all we had was a wee bit of water that was vacuumed up and we had a special mopping to clean for any possible bacteria. My brother put sandbags outside our ground floor door, used duct tape to tape up the doorjam with plastic sheeting, then put more sandbags against that. Worked beautifully and we had no damage claim whatsoever. Duct tape is a miracle of the modern world! Yes, flood insurance is not expensive and the deductible is $500 as compared to $10,000 for hurricane/wind damage.

I agree that one really has to use the services of an experienced company for water extraction and cleanup. They can save you tens of thousands of dollars that may otherwise be spent if this water is given a toehold in your house. Beachy Clean keeps us on a priority list now, so that if a storm does come through, they are checking out our place and getting on the job pronto.

[Buckhead Rick]

The travel magizine "Conde Nast" current issure,just published a poll of where people wish to have their 2nd home if it could be anywhere in the world. USA was # 1 country, Florida was number one state and the beach (by 78%) was the number 1 area. 82% wanted a vacation home "in a place I want to return to often", 63% wanted a "resort community", 45% wanted to own and 45% wanted a time share. When you factor in available land it sounds like the Panhandle of Florida.

[SHELLY]

I disagree that "newly constructed, steel, concrete and glass condos" are a safe bet when it comes to hurricanes. The "newly" constructed condos on Pensacola Beach called Portofino didn't fare well during Ivan. In addition to extensive (and EXPENSIVE) damage to landscaping, outdoor facilities and ground floor lobbies, health clubs, shops and restaurants, wind-blown water was forced through the patio doors and windows (the ones that remained intact) and soaked carpeting, drapes, furniture and wallboard where mold took hold in a big way. Moreover, the a/c units were ripped off the roof ruining the penthouses and causing rain to pour through the conduits and inside the walls for several floors down the tower blocks. When it comes to the power of Mother Nature, nowhere is "safe"--if she can't rip it up or tear it down, she'll wash the sand out from under it...don't fool yourself into thinking anything less.

[WiLe]

The Portofino is still there, isn't it? If it was stick built, it wouldn't be there. When I was referring to "newly built", I wasn't even talking about something that old. Most of the the newly built (and expensive) steel, concrete, and glass condos here have parking on the first 2 or 3 floors. The eminities start above that. I would think that if the Portofino were built today, post-Ivan and Katrina, it would be built different (and cost more). We were hit HARD here by Ivan. I known its a cliche, but it did look like a war zone. When the demolition is completed ALL of the wood structures will be gone from the beach side of the road - and many will be gone across the road. All of the steel and concrete condos are back in business. We have a developer here, Brett-Robinson, who built the Phoenix'. They pioneered concrete and steel here in the 80's. They lost all their pools and landscaping and the bottom floor. The rest did great - and a lot of those are relatively old buildings, built relatively cheap. You insinuated that a lot of the Portofino's glass windows and doors were blown out. We didn't see that here in the newer condos. The glass is amazingly strong. Personally, I wouldn't worry much about my steel and concrete condo on the beach. Odds are the worst thing that would happen is an assessment and some lost sand. Personally, I wouldn't have to do anything. I could go on a cruise if I wanted, and come back when the mess was cleaned up. Having been through a major hurricane in a SFH, I'd sweat until it hit. The destruction is overwhelming and building back is a long, drawn out, draining process. Many, many people here reassessed their feelings about living in a SFH on the beach. I don't know of anybody who abandoned condo-living. Most of the older wood condos have been bought out by developers who are building structures that can withstand a huricane much stonger than Ivan. The way its heading here, everything on the beach will be concrete and steel. That's not what the city planners and most of thr residents wanted, but a major hurricane changes minds.

[ecopal]

To Wile:
I agree that any structure on the beach should be steel reinforced conrete. But if the condo's foundation gets undercut by storm surge all bets are off.

If I were to rebuild I would probably build a poured steeel reinforced concrete structure like they are doing in Alys Beach. Their insurance costs are to be half of conventional wood structures.

But I would also make sure I built it on land that was at least 30 feet above sea level. Scenic 30A is unique in that it has the most coastal land available above 30 feet in Florida and in fact more than most any place on entire eastern US coast.

I also would want to be at least a lot or 2 back from the Gulf-I feel beach front is untenable. As long as I can hear and smell the Gulf and walk to it -and even better see it- I would be happy.

In reviewing pictures of past devastating hurricanes it seems evident that a well constructed wood structure-preferrably one story and definately without a tower- can survive most hurricanes as long as it is not hit by storm surge or an embedded tornado. It also appears as though most of the worst tornadoes along this coast-where a tornado from the west to south east has to develop over water (Once a tornado touches the water and stars sucking water it weakens rapidly.)- are less severe near the Gulf than they are inland.

[WiLe]

Most of our opinions are formed form past observation and experience. I've owned properties on the coast since 1994 and lived in all of them at one time - beach condo, beach house, wood condo across from the beach, back bay condo, and my present brick home near the beach. I had rather live in a single family home, but when a hurricane is coming my way, I don't like it quite as much.

Ivan was a strong hurricane. We got hit hard. There were no steel and concrete condos that had their foundations undermined here. But all of the beach homes in Orange Beach were destroyed. And I understand the beneifts of elevation, but fact is, the higher the elevation the more likely you are to loose your roof.

You're thinking about being "at least a lot or 2 back from the Gulf" makes sense and could very well make all the difference. From my experience, if you want beachfront, a steel and concrete condo is the best way to go. I believe that the newer ones are here to stay, and the biggest risk would be losing sand - maybe a lot of it.

I've been through 4 hurricanes now and they are all diffferent. The next one might change my thinking again. Katrina would have got us all pretty bad.

[Bob]

I disagree that "newly constructed, steel, concrete and glass condos" are a safe bet when it comes to hurricanes. The "newly" constructed condos on Pensacola Beach called Portofino didn't fare well during Ivan. In addition to extensive (and EXPENSIVE) damage to landscaping, outdoor facilities and ground floor lobbies, health clubs, shops and restaurants, wind-blown water was forced through the patio doors and windows (the ones that remained intact) and soaked carpeting, drapes, furniture and wallboard where mold took hold in a big way. Moreover, the a/c units were ripped off the roof ruining the penthouses and causing rain to pour through the conduits and inside the walls for several floors down the tower blocks. When it comes to the power of Mother Nature, nowhere is "safe"--if she can't rip it up or tear it down, she'll wash the sand out from under it...don't fool yourself into thinking anything less.

There is a monolithic concrete dome house ,2nd row PC Beach that can through the hurricane[s] quite well. I believe the personal website is domeofahome.com.

[SHELLY]

WiLe, you state that you don't know of anyone abandoning condo living as a result of the hurricanes.....just one look at the ever-growing list of condos for sale all along the panhandle tells an entirely different story. Portofino only had a few windows blown out, most of the water damage in the condos was caused by wind-driven water through the patio doors and water that poured down the walls, elevator shafts, and conduit when the a/c units were ripped from the roof (hurricane force winds get pretty fierce 22 stories up!).

Bob: You're correct...the domehome made it through the storm OK, so why aren't there crowds of people lining up to have them built?? My guess is that they (a) don't comply with HOA rules, (b) are too expensive, or (c) are just too darn ugly.

With all the talk of steel, concrete, rebar, high-rises etc, etc, it kind of ruins one's dream of what a "beachside" home should be....clapboard siding, wooden shutters, banging screen door and a porch that is dusted with white sand and littered with seashells from an early walk along the beach.

Beachfront living now means a row of high-rise concrete bunkers surrounded by steel-reinforced seawalls....certainly nothing that memories are made of--unless you have fond recollections of the Gulag.

[ecopal]

to SHELLY: You sure turn a pretty phrase - you can be a fun read.

Sounds like those Portofino condos in Pensacola Beach are a real disaster.

I agree that most of those waterfront concrete bunker high rises are quite hideous. I am happy that we only have 2 on 30A and only one of those is really ugly.

I too am nostalgic for as you so eloquently describe as
" clapboard siding, wooden shutters, banging screen door and a porch that is dusted with white sand and littered with seashells from an early walk along the beach." Fortunately many of the cottages on 30A could fit that colorful description.

Even many of the reinforced concrete houses on 30A are actually very attractive and do not look anything like a "bunker". This would include the Alys Beach buildings and many in Rosemary Beach and in many other areas along 30A.

The more traditonal looking wood frame 30A cottage style with metal roofs and "clapboard siding" also are no push over in a hurricane (especially if built under the new codes since 2002). Essentially they are steel reinforced wood structures with a multitude of high tensile reinforcing rods running from foundation to top plate, and brackets, braces, and steel strapping on the studs, and on all window/door openings and roof rafters. Screw down metal roofing and concrete siding are also used instead of the more wind vulnerable shingles and vinyl siding. Windows are rated for hurricane force winds well in excess of 100mph and some are actually made of thick laminated glass which are virtually bullet proof.

You combine that with a locaton at least 30 feet above sea level(I agree with WiLe that I wouldn't want to sit my house on top of a high exposed hill where the wind exposure would be stronger than at ground level) and you are adapting reasonably and rationally to what can be a very harsh environment at times.

At least hurricanes give you a warning which is more than you get with an earthquake, tornado, terrorist attack, tsunami, or
criminal attacks like a break in or home invasion.

[Bob]

WiLe, you state that you don't know of anyone abandoning condo living as a result of the hurricanes.....just one look at the ever-growing list of condos for sale all along the panhandle tells an entirely different story. Portofino only had a few windows blown out, most of the water damage in the condos was caused by wind-driven water through the patio doors and water that poured down the walls, elevator shafts, and conduit when the a/c units were ripped from the roof (hurricane force winds get pretty fierce 22 stories up!).

Bob: You're correct...the domehome made it through the storm OK, so why aren't there crowds of people lining up to have them built?? My guess is that they (a) don't comply with HOA rules, (b) are too expensive, or (c) are just too darn ugly.

With all the talk of steel, concrete, rebar, high-rises etc, etc, it kind of ruins one's dream of what a "beachside" home should be....clapboard siding, wooden shutters, banging screen door and a porch that is dusted with white sand and littered with seashells from an early walk along the beach.

Beachfront living now means a row of high-rise concrete bunkers surrounded by steel-reinforced seawalls....certainly nothing that memories are made of--unless you have fond recollections of the Gulag.

monolithic dome homes will become more popular, but knowledgeable builders are few and concrete ain't cheap thanks to China. I personally have never understood why all along the Gulf Coast stick built homes are the rule. You would think folks would enjoy the beauty of not having to rebuild.

[WiLe]

WiLe, you state that you don't know of anyone abandoning condo living as a result of the hurricanes.....just one look at the ever-growing list of condos for sale all along the panhandle tells an entirely different story. Portofino only had a few windows blown out, most of the water damage in the condos was caused by wind-driven water through the patio doors and water that poured down the walls, elevator shafts, and conduit when the a/c units were ripped from the roof (hurricane force winds get pretty fierce 22 stories up!).:

Shelly, all of the condos that you see "up for sale" is a function of supply and demand. From Gulf Shores, Alabama to Mexico Beach, Florida there are thousands of NEW condos available each year. If there was a net loss, there would be abandoned condos - if they are all occupied that should tell is that more people are moving into condos. I didn't see anybody abandon condo living here after Ivan. The reverse is true, actually. I could show you a stretch where, before Ivan, there were 6 beach homes - now there's two condo towers in the same space that will have over 300 condos - and all of them will be sold before they are finished. There's no reason to think that they want be sold, since everything else is selling preconstruction. Here we've got 12,000 condos going up on the Intercoastal Canal. That's 12,000 from NOTHING. Another example. This one where I own a condo: A stick built condo development of 5 buildings, 75 units across from the beach. The buildings were well-built and did well through all the hurricanes until Ivan. Ivan did massive damage to many of the units (not mine, luckily). A developer is going to demolish all five buildings and trade us out new units in the high rise of 360 Units in two towers. That's a net gain of 285 units on that one property. There were many people who didn't want to lose the low density, but over time they saw the futility in repairing something that is temporary.... That's a lot of new condos isn't it? If there was net loss from people selling and leaving, the building will stop. I believe it will stop when all the land is gone. Yes, there will be a leveling of of price gains. We're already seeing that. However, if there was a leveling of of demand, you'd see the construction stop.

If the Portofino were built today, it would be built better. Ivan re-wrote the book. It takes the devloper about a year to get out of the hole and BEGIN building. Compare that to the wood condo that I own built on a pad.

I hope you don't think that had rather see condos instead of homes. or, even better, sand dunes on the beach. Ivans and Katrinas change minds. That's certain.

[ecopal]

WiLe:
Was your stick built condo primarily damaged by storm surge?

[SHELLY]

WilE,

Portofino is STILL building towers--2 more to be exact--and they are beating the fields trying to find buyers. Meanwhile, folks in the other towers are trying to sellout. Some are having a difficult time renting out their units (trying to cover their increased assessment, insurance and tax costs no doubt).

The condo boom will soon die a terrible death which will send speculators running for the exits. Tons of folks have only a $10,000 down payment tied up in these pre-construction beauties and have absolutely no intention of closing on them (nor could they afford to ). Old retirees who lived in these 22-story concrete towers in South Florida and spent 2 weeks without power (or elevators or A/C) after Wilma hit will be sharing their tales of woe with fellow passengers on their upcoming Christmas/Hanukah cruises.

In-the-know savvy real estate folks have cashed out of real estate over the past several months, what's left in the condo market are those hoping to find "bigger fools" who will be few and far between.

With the GLUT of beach side condos, some vacationers will be scared off (not wanting to spend their holidays in the shadows of concrete monstrosities). Those who will want to come to the beach won't be able to pay the condo owners enough to cover their carrying costs. Demand will diminish, supply will increase....prices will drop.

I've been watching the rise of the condo market for some time--I've been seeing lots of chinks in its armor lately and I believe in 2006 the condo market will start to unwind. And if the upcoming hurricane season is a repeat (or worse) than last year, the fall will be much, much quicker.

[WiLe]

WiLe:
Was your stick built condo primarily damaged by storm surge?

No, since I had a ground floor unit I fully expected to have my unit flooded. Not any of the 5 buildings flooded. We were on higher ground than I thought there. (My home a good bit further from the beach got 18 inches) I have an end unit and got a little water in around my windows and under the doors. Other units weren't so lucky and got a lot of wind damage. Some had to be totally gutted and still to this day haven't been repaired. A few months back a decision (and not a unanimously popular one) was made to patch up and wait on the developer to start demolishing. Its really the only thing that makes sense.

[WiLe]

WilE,

Portofino is STILL building towers--2 more to be exact--and they are beating the fields trying to find buyers. Meanwhile, folks in the other towers are trying to sellout. Some are having a difficult time renting out their units (trying to cover their increased assessment, insurance and tax costs no doubt)..

When condos get impossible to sell, you won't see them being built. Until that time the condo market is healthy, maybe less so right now for the end user than the developer, but if they're all eventually sold, how is that a sign of anything unhealthy? The "folks in the other towers trying to sell out": how many are trying to sell out to trade up and how many are trying to sell out at a killer profit? I'd suspect that if someone got in early at Portofino, they've doubled or triped their money. I bought a preconstruction condo in Orange Beach in 1993 for $169,900 - that condo (which I no longer own) would list in the high 7's now. Maybe, right this minute, it would be a slow sell in the high 7's, but how fast do you think it would sell in the high 5's - and those owners (assuming its the same owner would still double their money at 5+, plus if they rented it they had the rental, plus they could have used it all that time. Point I'm trying to make is maybe Portofinos shouldn't be listing for what they do - that doesn't necessarily make them bad investments. I'll say it this way: I wish I could have bought the whole condo complex for what they sold for preconstruction and I wish I could sell them for 20% less than then the average one lists today.

I see lots of listings for 5 year old condos that are about the same price as a comparable preconstruction. If prices for older condos adjusted down, it would probably be a good thing.

The condo boom will soon die a terrible death which will send speculators running for the exits. Tons of folks have only a $10,000 down payment tied up in these pre-construction beauties and have absolutely no intention of closing on them (nor could they afford to ). Old retirees who lived in these 22-story concrete towers in South Florida and spent 2 weeks without power (or elevators or A/C) after Wilma hit will be sharing their tales of woe with fellow passengers on their upcoming Christmas/Hanukah cruises.)..

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that its possible to make a $10,000 down payment on a $800,000 condo. In Florida, I think its a required 20% with 10% of that in hard cash, and the other 10% with a letter of credit. Not very many people will willingly walk away from a 20% loss - in this case $160,000.

Regarding the "Wilma woes," all it would take is one season without hurricanes and Wilma will be forgotten. Most people that weren't in it have already forgotten it. After Andrew, thousands of people left the area - a few years later they were more than replaced. People have short memories - and I don't believe that people will ever abandon the coast - if anything, they will gravitate away from homes into condos because of maintenance and shared responsibility issues. I think we're already seeing it, waterfront anyway. I know that that's not what you'd like.

In-the-know savvy real estate folks have cashed out of real estate over the past several months, what's left in the condo market are those hoping to find "bigger fools" who will be few and far between.)

Its a great thing to be savvy enough to move in and out of markets at just the right time and get rich in the process. I saw a TV show a couple nights ago about the Kennedys and that's what Old Man Joe did. Most people can't do that. For most people everything makes sense backwards, but that's not the case forward. I don't know anybody who EXPECTED real estate to do what it did the last 3 years. They thought they were making reasonable investments and many probably didn't even think about making money. It was fortunate timing.

With the GLUT of beach side condos, some vacationers will be scared off (not wanting to spend their holidays in the shadows of concrete monstrosities). Those who will want to come to the beach won't be able to pay the condo owners enough to cover their carrying costs. Demand will diminish, supply will increase....prices will drop.

I've been watching the rise of the condo market for some time--I've been seeing lots of chinks in its armor lately and I believe in 2006 the condo market will start to unwind. And if the upcoming hurricane season is a repeat (or worse) than last year, the fall will be much, much quicker.

According to your scenario, the coast is done for. I don't believe that's the case. Those "concrete montrosities" that you speak of, are dreams for millions. I'd venture a guess that in today's world, there are MORE people who'd like to spend a week in a new beach condo, with all the amenities and service, than there are who'd like to spend a week in a beach house, with nothing but sand and water. I'm not knocking beach homes - you just shouldn't discount the popularity of condos. Some of the newer ones are really resorts. There always has been and always will be a demand for this type of vacation.

Certainly, hurricanes are not good for coastal real estate. Its not even good for the ones who never have any intention of doing anything with it, but use it. But seriously, if you're thinking that hurricanes will drive people from the coast, you're talking about ALL coastal real estate - maybe especially homes.

Regarding condos, I believe that prices might level off - the older ones might regress a little, but long term, they will be good investments. Beach property, as a whole, is the rarest property in the world. At some point, there will be ZERO left. Add that to the area's growth - Pier Park and the new airport in PCB, for example. And St Joe's plans. Alabama has had nothing to offer except the beach - up until now. We're got an aquarium, a new water park, an amphitheatre, a Rave theatre, just to name of few of the things coming. Its projected that withing 3 years, the number of restaurants will double. We're getting an expressway all the way to Highway 10. The state park system is building a convention center. There are planned "towns" coming on the Intercostal. Sure, it will be bumpy and look "glutty," but long term, real estate can't do anything but go up and what looks expensive today will look cheap later. Isn't that ALWAYS the case?

Building begats more building. There will be bumps and gluts. All temporary.

And don't think that there aren't true bargains left on the coast. You can still get a beach condo (or as close to beach as condos get there) in Mexico Beach for $350 a square foot. That's a bargain and it's never going to be any cheaper than it is now. Height restrictions are four stories, so they'll never be that many condos there. Land is limiited so there will never be that many of anything there. Five years from now, lots of people who don't see that now will be wishing they had. It'll all make perfectly good sense then.

[Rita]

WiLe!

Enjoyed your rebuttals.

[beachmouse]

And steel and concrete construction can actually be very attractive. I've seen some goregeous insulating concrete form (ICF) homes around here, and would probably go with ICF construction if we were ever planning on building. Granted, traditional beach shack doesn't quite work, but there are a lot of styles that do- Spanish/Mediterranian, Florida contemporary, modern, Art Deco, etc.

The problem isn't the steel and concrete, it's that there's pressure to build as cheaply as possible, so you don't get all the pretty Art Deco and Spanish style detailing that you could get with those materials.

[SHELLY]

Wile,

I don't expect to convince you the Florida condo craze is going to end (very) badly for lots of folks--time will prove me right on that point. It happened before in the 1920s Florida Land & Condo Craze

The crash of the real estate market in Japan proves that the "they're not making any more land so prices have GOT to go up" pitch isn't gospel.

The baby boomers who were going to flock to the Florida condo market no doubt included in their numbers the tens of thousands of workers who are going to get pink slips from GM, Ford, Merck, and others.

The heady days of condo flipping for fun and profit are quickly coming to an end sending speculators screaming for the exit. Justification for condo investment has been reduced to a series of "ifs and buts" (and as they say, "When 'ifs' and 'buts' become candy and nuts we'll all have a Merry Christmas" ")

During the recent condo craze it ALWAYS been about profits for the developers. I suspect some of the new developments won't get off the drawing board as banks (and the Fed) are clamping down on the easy lending practices of the past. Most of the condos coming out of the dirt now are of the $10,000 down variety; many of the higher cost condos were pushed as fractionals with an equally small down payment per investor. Lots of the small down payments were even financed by folks pulling equity out of their primary homestead (and interest on these equity loans are readjusting up as we speak). Some will have no other option but to walk away when they can't find a bigger fool or close on the mortgage.

Many people who were holding (and successfully renting) condos they bought years ago have cashed out. Those who recently purchased them for investment at (too) high prices will find out this coming summer they won't be able to cover their carry costs due to the increased taxes, insurance and fees; and due to the EXPLOSION in competition (more condos!) they will have to provide more competitive prices and pray they break even or don't lose too much money from their "investment." It won't take long for word to get out that renting on the panhandle isn't as profitable as it was in the good ole days when the area was pretty, the carry costs were low, hurricanes were few, and competition was scarce. When that happens, even more condos will flood the marketplace.

People who don't recognize that the real estate frenzy of the past couple years was an anomaly will get financially spanked in the end--find these folks QUICK if you have a condo to sell!

[Bob]

Wile,

I don't expect to convince you the Florida condo craze is going to end (very) badly for lots of folks--time will prove me right on that point. It happened before in the 1920s Florida Land & Condo Craze

The crash of the real estate market in Japan proves that the "they're not making any more land so prices have GOT to go up" pitch isn't gospel.

The baby boomers who were going to flock to the Florida condo market no doubt included in their numbers the tens of thousands of workers who are going to get pink slips from GM, Ford, Merck, and others.

The heady days of condo flipping for fun and profit are quickly coming to an end sending speculators screaming for the exit. Justification for condo investment has been reduced to a series of "ifs and buts" (and as they say, "When 'ifs' and 'buts' become candy and nuts we'll all have a Merry Christmas" ")

During the recent condo craze it ALWAYS been about profits for the developers. I suspect some of the new developments won't get off the drawing board as banks (and the Fed) are clamping down on the easy lending practices of the past. Most of the condos coming out of the dirt now are of the $10,000 down variety; many of the higher cost condos were pushed as fractionals with an equally small down payment per investor. Lots of the small down payments were even financed by folks pulling equity out of their primary homestead (and interest on these equity loans are readjusting up as we speak). Some will have no other option but to walk away when they can't find a bigger fool or close on the mortgage.

Many people who were holding (and successfully renting) condos they bought years ago have cashed out. Those who recently purchased them for investment at (too) high prices will find out this coming summer they won't be able to cover their carry costs due to the increased taxes, insurance and fees; and due to the EXPLOSION in competition (more condos!) they will have to provide more competitive prices and pray they break even or don't lose too much money from their "investment." It won't take long for word to get out that renting on the panhandle isn't as profitable as it was in the good ole days when the area was pretty, the carry costs were low, hurricanes were few, and competition was scarce. When that happens, even more condos will flood the marketplace.

People who don't recognize that the real estate frenzy of the past couple years was an anomaly will get financially spanked in the end--find these folks QUICK if you have a condo to sell!

Shelly, the U.S. Census Bureau predicts 35 million plus residents for Florida by 2025. That's nipping at the heels of California. Do the math.

[Smiling JOe]

Shelly,
The $10,000 down to which you reference is not the down payment. It is only the reservation amount, and once the reservation goes to hard contract, you will need to pony up 10% cash with a letter of credit, or 20% for the down payment, which becomes non-refundable.

[WiLe]

Wile,

I don't expect to convince you the Florida condo craze is going to end (very) badly for lots of folks--time will prove me right on that point. It happened before in the 1920s Florida Land & Condo Craze

The crash of the real estate market in Japan proves that the "they're not making any more land so prices have GOT to go up" pitch isn't gospel.

Its wrong to compare the 20's bubble to what's happening in Florida today. Credit was easy and, I think, most anybody who had a job could get in on the action. That's also why so many stock market investors were jumping out of windows. (10% margin for most any investor was the rule back then). This is not the case case today. Speaking strictly of condos, with a 20% down payment, you're talking about IMMEDIATELY eliminating most people from participating. And very few of those people who can afford the 20% will walk away from that much money and ruin their cedit in the process... Unlike Japan, with Florida the primary justification for real estate rising higher than most of the rest of the country is migration. Ask the average person in Michigan where he'd last to spend his last days - if he's inclined to relocate, the most likely answer is going to be "Florida" and, if he has been gainfully employed for a few decades, most likely he can afford to move somewhere in Florida. Plus you've got all the folks who just pick up and move to Florida and find work when they get there. If all this is false, demographers have a lot of explaining to do.

The baby boomers who were going to flock to the Florida condo market no doubt included in their numbers the tens of thousands of workers who are going to get pink slips from GM, Ford, Merck, and others.!

The pink slipped, who can't rebound are relatively few. Big companies going bust is nothing new. I'm from Birmingham and can remember when steel ruled. The world came to an end when U.S. Steel closed up most of its production in the early 80's. A few years later, people realized they weren't dead.

The heady days of condo flipping for fun and profit are quickly coming to an end sending speculators screaming for the exit. Justification for condo investment has been reduced to a series of "ifs and buts" (and as they say, "When 'ifs' and 'buts' become candy and nuts we'll all have a Merry Christmas" ")

Flipping at 50% profit might be over. So? Doesn't mean that appreciation can't average 10 -15% per year for prime property. Its also possible for HUGE profits to return one day - like they did for California. When land is limited and a lot of people want it, prices generally rise.

During the recent condo craze it ALWAYS been about profits for the developers. I suspect some of the new developments won't get off the drawing board as banks (and the Fed) are clamping down on the easy lending practices of the past. Most of the condos coming out of the dirt now are of the $10,000 down variety; many of the higher cost condos were pushed as fractionals with an equally small down payment per investor. Lots of the small down payments were even financed by folks pulling equity out of their primary homestead (and interest on these equity loans are readjusting up as we speak). Some will have no other option but to walk away when they can't find a bigger fool or close on the mortgage."

There is no such thing as a small down payment on a condo. 20% is a high. So what if some of the condo develpments don't get off the ground? Wouldn't that be a calming factor on an overheated market? Interest rates are a factor, but the first casualty would be new construction, which would cool down the market. Nobody's going to walk away. There would be somebody there to pick up the property at a discount - same as if you bought a bond and get rid of it before maturity, when interest rates are rising. Fractionals are a non-issue. People will want to hold on to them for the same reason they bought them. They're not time-shares.

Many people who were holding (and successfully renting) condos they bought years ago have cashed out. Those who recently purchased them for investment at (too) high prices will find out this coming summer they won't be able to cover their carry costs due to the increased taxes, insurance and fees; and due to the EXPLOSION in competition (more condos!) they will have to provide more competitive prices and pray they break even or don't lose too much money from their "investment." It won't take long for word to get out that renting on the panhandle isn't as profitable as it was in the good ole days when the area was pretty, the carry costs were low, hurricanes were few, and competition was scarce. When that happens, even more condos will flood the marketplace.

People who don't recognize that the real estate frenzy of the past couple years was an anomaly will get financially spanked in the end--find these folks QUICK if you have a condo to sell!

I think that people who are smart enough to be able to purchase a million dollar condo, are smart enough to know they can't cover the carrying costs by renting. The people I see buying those kind of condos here, know what they are getting into. Actually, most real estae agents explain this to them - the ones that I know do this. Way back in 1993, when I bought my first condo, the developer told me that I might have to supplement the payment with my own funds.

[SHELLY]

So it's $20,000 (from home equity loans?) and a "letter of credit." But for those who've made it to hard contract the pain will hit home when the developer comes knocking and wants final payment. Then they've gotta scramble for a mortgage (probably trying for an optional ARM to hold them over while they try unload (along with everyone else) into a declining condo market)...the idiots who can't afford the condo and all the trappings that go along with "investment condo" ownership will take a bath and SERIOUSLY regret they didn't walk out on the deal.

If one has the money to carry the investment--no problem. But there are so, so many out there who are holding onto a fistful of these contracts for "investment" who will end up NOT having a pot...but will certainly have plenty of windows to throw it out of.

HOT TIP: Get out of the conventional real estate business and into the real estate auction game--that's where the next "boom" will come from. Property, home and condo auctions are going to be hot, hot, hot!

BOB: And I bet that 35 million in California don't include illegals either! It's true that Florida's employment figures look good...but the majority of these jobs are "service" jobs...just how many $500,000 condos can a person who makes $8.50ph buy in Florida? With all the "rich" folks flooding the state, surely they'll want someone to do their nails or clean their pool--people don't live on Botox injections alone.

2nd HOT TIP: Look out for some goomba from Jersey to start organizing the service sector folks in South Walton. Something's gotta give.

[SHELLY]

WiLe:

You said: "Its wrong to compare the 20's bubble to what's happening in Florida today. Credit was easy and, I think, most anybody who had a job could get in on the action. That's also why so many stock market investors were jumping out of windows. (10% margin for most any investor was the rule back then). This is not the case case today."

This is not the case today??

Maybe you are right--10% margin is TOO low for lots of real estate investors...those using "creative financing" are working on 80-100% margin!

[WiLe]

WiLe:

You said: "Its wrong to compare the 20's bubble to what's happening in Florida today. Credit was easy and, I think, most anybody who had a job could get in on the action. That's also why so many stock market investors were jumping out of windows. (10% margin for most any investor was the rule back then). This is not the case case today."

This is not the case today??

Maybe you are right--10% margin is TOO low for lots of real estate investors...those using "creative financing" are working on 80-100% margin!

I kinda thought that you'd take hold an run with the analogy. You're drawing an apples and oranges conclusion. Difference is that in the 20's the stock market investor could pick up his phone and buy $100 worth of stock with $10 - ON HIS WORD. Today, banks make you jump through hoops to get a loan. They don't loan unless they have more reason to think that you'll pay than default. Certainly, just as with any other big ticket item, there is going to be some buyer's remorse. Massive amounts of people bailing out and walking away from a a hundred thousand + ain't gonna happen - unless our economy crashes, depression style. If that happens, odds are it isn't going to matter how you're invested. People would be walking away rom their primary residence, just the same as second home or investment property.

I will agree with you that if the investor could ONLY put up $10 - $20,000 and not run the risk of ruining his credit, many would risk more. $100,000 - $200,000 and ruined credit, "walking away" is not going to happen.

[beachmouse]

It's scary how many loans have been written for not just interest only, but for negative amoritization in recent years, and how many of those neg-am loans involved very little down payment.

Next 2-3 years, I can see a 10-20% decline in single family prices. Not great, but unless you bought at the absolute top of the market, not too horrible of a decline. Then a long slow gentle rise in prices and getting back to March 2005 prices in 5-10 years.

The condo market in the northern Gulf Coast is going to be a bloodbath in the next 2-3 years. Panama City Beach is in the process of massively overbuilding, and a lot of the flippers who are trying to unload their contracts right now are going to go into foreclosure. And it's going to be a big enough problem to depress prices between there and Orange Beach/Gulf Shores.

Yeah, PCB is still a bit scruffy, but when you can get a shiny new construction 2 bedroom beachfront condo for $180K at the bank foreclosure auction and get some decent rental out of it, it makes a lot more financial sense to buy there than to pay $500K for something similar in Destin or Perdido Key.

If I was looking to buy these days, I'd go with a single family home that could be improved with some sweat equity and modest modernizing.

[SHELLY]

"Today, banks make you jump through hoops to get a loan. They don't loan unless they have more reason to think that you'll pay than default."

OH NO???

Check it out:

NO DOC LOANS!!

And there are hundreds and hundreds more where that came from.

WiLe, you really need to get out more--just steer clear of realtors, you'd be like honey to the bees.

[Smiling JOe]

"Today, banks make you jump through hoops to get a loan. They don't loan unless they have more reason to think that you'll pay than default."

OH NO???

Check it out:

NO DOC LOANS!!

And there are hundreds and hundreds more where that came from.

WiLe, you really need to get out more--just steer clear of realtors, you'd be like honey to the bees.

Shelly is absolutely correct on no doc loans. However, the advice of steering clear of Realtors should be corrected to, "stay clear of bad Realtors." Good Realtors really do exist and they can be very helpful.