A commentary on the bubble

[GVM]

Here's an interesting column I came across on-line. The author is a business journalist in the mid-west, I think.

The Real Estate Bubble Pops Here
Posted by Dana Blankenhorn
A post card came in the mail, from a Keller-Williams agent. (Is it just my imagination or have they taken over the market lately?) It was about the Gary house, down the street from me.

The asking price is $334,900.

I remember the Garys, from back in the day. Nice people. Salt of the earth. He was a deacon at the church. She loved him desperately. The mantle was already filled with pictures of grandchildren when I met them, in the early 1980s. I went there regularly for block meetings. They said we were crazy to pay $49,000 for our house.

Mr. Gary passed away in the late 1990s. (God rest his soul.) She finally moved out with some of those grandchildren, a few years later.

They had gotten an unbelievable offer.


The seller this time gave her that offer, which doubled property taxes all over the block. Now they’re looking for an unbelievable profit. They might get it.

It’s ironic that FNMA (Fannie Mae) and FHMC (Freddie Mac), which were created to make housing affordable, have in the last years done just the opposite. But food is energy, and too much obesity, I guess.

The problem is that Fannie and Freddie buy anything. As a result there’s no longer any risk in mortgage lending. The banker moves the paper to the government, which turns it into a security. Everyone takes a fee. All the incentives are one-way.

So you get 40 year mortgages, you get adjustable rate mortgages, you get interest-only mortgages, you get adjustable rate interest only mortgages. These were fine for investors, who could pay off called loans, but for ordinary people it leaves you one pink slip or one rate hike away from bankruptcy.

And you’ve gotta do it. The price of housing is tied to the price of money, and the availability of loans. With the spigots turned on high, a conservative buyer has as much chance of closing as a value investor chasing Google.

We’ve had bubbles before. Some are old enough to remember 1974, the last time Atlanta housing crashed. It stayed crashed for many years. But most aren’t old enough to remember that.

So the bubble gets bigger and bigger and bigger. Prices go only one way. It ends when everyone’s in the game, when there are no more buyers, or when the price of money shoots up, as it might with this $2.50/gallon gasoline.

Until then, $335,000 for a three bedroom, two bath in Kirkwood is just the price.

[Bob]

Here's an interesting column I came across on-line. The author is a business journalist in the mid-west, I think.

The Real Estate Bubble Pops Here
Posted by Dana Blankenhorn
A post card came in the mail, from a Keller-Williams agent. (Is it just my imagination or have they taken over the market lately?) It was about the Gary house, down the street from me.

The asking price is $334,900.

I remember the Garys, from back in the day. Nice people. Salt of the earth. He was a deacon at the church. She loved him desperately. The mantle was already filled with pictures of grandchildren when I met them, in the early 1980s. I went there regularly for block meetings. They said we were crazy to pay $49,000 for our house.

Mr. Gary passed away in the late 1990s. (God rest his soul.) She finally moved out with some of those grandchildren, a few years later.

They had gotten an unbelievable offer.


The seller this time gave her that offer, which doubled property taxes all over the block. Now they’re looking for an unbelievable profit. They might get it.

It’s ironic that FNMA (Fannie Mae) and FHMC (Freddie Mac), which were created to make housing affordable, have in the last years done just the opposite. But food is energy, and too much obesity, I guess.

The problem is that Fannie and Freddie buy anything. As a result there’s no longer any risk in mortgage lending. The banker moves the paper to the government, which turns it into a security. Everyone takes a fee. All the incentives are one-way.

So you get 40 year mortgages, you get adjustable rate mortgages, you get interest-only mortgages, you get adjustable rate interest only mortgages. These were fine for investors, who could pay off called loans, but for ordinary people it leaves you one pink slip or one rate hike away from bankruptcy.

And you’ve gotta do it. The price of housing is tied to the price of money, and the availability of loans. With the spigots turned on high, a conservative buyer has as much chance of closing as a value investor chasing Google.

We’ve had bubbles before. Some are old enough to remember 1974, the last time Atlanta housing crashed. It stayed crashed for many years. But most aren’t old enough to remember that.

So the bubble gets bigger and bigger and bigger. Prices go only one way. It ends when everyone’s in the game, when there are no more buyers, or when the price of money shoots up, as it might with this $2.50/gallon gasoline.

Until then, $335,000 for a three bedroom, two bath in Kirkwood is just the price.

Prices in Indianapolis actually fell last year. "Real Estate" is a very local issue.

[Smiling JOe]

Speaking of Bubbles, while I am not blind to the recent trends, I can see reasons why Stock Brokers would have much to gain by pushing the Real Estate Bubble into the news. They have much to gain by getting people to reinvest in stocks. Americans pulled billions out of the stock market and parked their money in real estate. Stock Brokers want your money back in their hands.

I am suprised that a television channel has not been dedicated to Real Estate valuations and speculations. I bet the ads would be costly due to the watchers. Should I sell my house today, or hope for a run up tomorrow? Maybe I will buy another home or two if prices drop next week.

I can see it now.

[OnMackBayou]

The vaunted REAL ESTATE BUBBLE has now been usurped by a gas bubble. They should have left well enough alone, because when this one pops.....................

[skier]

There are some very interesting articles in the Wall Street journal today regarding the bubble. And, oil prices, interest rate trends, etc. all point to a bubble bursting in overheated markets.

But, unlike stock market bubble bursts, the articles say it will be much more subtle and take time to see the effects of the decrease in prices.

It is clear that prices have fallen in areas of SoWal recently. Good examples are the 3 lots on Salt Box Lane in Watersound that apparently went under contract for under $700k after some sold last year for almost $900k. That equates to about a 20% decrease in market value. I have seen some other lots for sale where folks are listing for barely 5% more than they paid last summer. But, they aren't moving because similar lots close by are priced much lower (those aren't moving either) because the owners bought a couple of years ago and have much lower basis in the property.

[Cavallino]

Can you say....

[OnMackBayou]

I recently read a bubble article by an "expert". He said that prices were really out of whack in California because it would cost the same to buy 7 houses in Buffalo vs. 1 in Santa Barbara. Only 7??????????????????????? Sounds like a bubble in Buffalo to me. That's comparing oranges and snowballs.

I lived in Houston until the late 80's, and went thru a big housing downturn. People often owed more on their homes than they were worth. Many people just walked away from them. Foreclosures were rampant. But Houston was a one trick pony related to the bust in the oil market. I always liked Houston because it was home.

But I can't really imagine too many people really wanting to go there on vacation, to have a second home there, to retire there or to spend the winters there, such as they do in South Walton.

Most other areas that have had bubbles had them because of a downturn in the local economy. The individual deals out here in South Walton seem to be getting snapped up pretty quick, at a price still elevated from a year ago. If buyers are waiting for prices to fall to 2004 levels, they will probably be waiting for the rest of their lives.

Kinda like the deal I'm still waiting on in Naples. From 1997. That bayfront lot for which I wouldn't pay $300,000.00 is now probably worth $2,000,000.00.

Can you imagine what this area will be like in 5-10 years? More diverse, more crowded and certainly much, much more expensive than now. If you see a deal now, you better grab it.

[Bob]

Long term for SoWal is likely to be very good, those who have built and homesteaded have a rather unobtainable status. Nice club to be in now.

[Miss Kitty]

Long term for SoWal is likely to be very good, those who have built and homesteaded have a rather unobtainable status. Nice club to be in now.

Could this be the newest..."haves vs. have-nots"???? Is the Save Our Homes campaign closed to new buyers moving to FL? Will we see bumper stickers that say...HOMESTEADED replace SoWal.com as the latest must have
accessory? I say NEVER!...SoWal Rules...We're no Fools!!!

[skier]

I recently read a bubble article by an "expert". He said that prices were really out of whack in California because it would cost the same to buy 7 houses in Buffalo vs. 1 in Santa Barbara. Only 7??????????????????????? Sounds like a bubble in Buffalo to me. That's comparing oranges and snowballs.

I lived in Houston until the late 80's, and went thru a big housing downturn. People often owed more on their homes than they were worth. Many people just walked away from them. Foreclosures were rampant. But Houston was a one trick pony related to the bust in the oil market. I always liked Houston because it was home.

But I can't really imagine too many people really wanting to go there on vacation, to have a second home there, to retire there or to spend the winters there, such as they do in South Walton.

Most other areas that have had bubbles had them because of a downturn in the local economy. The individual deals out here in South Walton seem to be getting snapped up pretty quick, at a price still elevated from a year ago. If buyers are waiting for prices to fall to 2004 levels, they will probably be waiting for the rest of their lives.

Kinda like the deal I'm still waiting on in Naples. From 1997. That bayfront lot for which I wouldn't pay $300,000.00 is now probably worth $2,000,000.00.

Can you imagine what this area will be like in 5-10 years? More diverse, more crowded and certainly much, much more expensive than now. If you see a deal now, you better grab it.

Mack,

Not sure what deals you are talking about, because the only stuff I see selling along on the eastern end of 30A are at prices that are below the prices paid for very similar properties last year. In fact, several lots in watersound sold recently at prices 20% less that lots next door sold for in 2004. There are also numerous properties on the market in Seaside, Watercolor, Watersound and Rosemary that are for sale at prices close to or lower than last summer that are not moving. The inventory on the market is overwhelming and folks continue to drop prices with no takers. In Watersound, Watercolor, Seaside and Rosemary, the inventory continues to increase each week (ie:new houses appearing on the market exceed the sales each week). And, at Alys Beach, the agents are actually calling prospects to try to "drum up business". When was the last time any of the big developments had to contact people to drum up business. Not sure how long the slow down and trend of decreasing prices will last, but in the short term, you are dead wrong. The FACTS speak for themselves.

[kurt]

Mack,

And, at Alys Beach, the agents are actually calling prospects to try to "drum up business".

In a recent post you said you had heard this and wanted someone to confirm. Did you get confirmation?

Though I wouldn't be surprised to hear about salespeople attempting to achieve sales.

[OnMackBayou]

Mack,

Not sure what deals you are talking about, because the only stuff I see selling along on the eastern end of 30A are at prices that are below the prices paid for very similar properties last year. In fact, several lots in watersound sold recently at prices 20% less that lots next door sold for in 2004. There are also numerous properties on the market in Seaside, Watercolor, Watersound and Rosemary that are for sale at prices close to or lower than last summer that are not moving. The inventory on the market is overwhelming and folks continue to drop prices with no takers. In Watersound, Watercolor, Seaside and Rosemary, the inventory continues to increase each week (ie:new houses appearing on the market exceed the sales each week). And, at Alys Beach, the agents are actually calling prospects to try to "drum up business". When was the last time any of the big developments had to contact people to drum up business. Not sure how long the slow down and trend of decreasing prices will last, but in the short term, you are dead wrong. The FACTS speak for themselves.

Skier, was going to write a long reply, but have to cut it short. Large pieces of the sky have fallen in the yard. The missus says I have to clean it up. Now!

Let's talk in say.........5-10 years. Good luck til then.

[pattiw]

I agree with Smiling Joe - the media machine is out of control. If investors pull out of the real estate market, where are they supposed to put their money? Gee, I wonder... back in the stock market? Who really stands to gain from a major reallocation of investor's dollars? Where was the money before investors jumped into real estate? I would guess mostly in the stock market or on hold in cash funds or low-risk investments waiting for the market to recover. Remember WHY we pulled out of the stock market? Is the market honestly looking THAT much better now?

The media is doing everything they can (quite successfully) to get the word out to all (not just investors) to stir up panic. Example: local media (in KS) is now talking about the bubble effecting our area - pleeease! Property values here have steadily appreciated 4-7% a year for the last 20 years... now it's a bubble? Come on! By the time you factor in cost of living & increases in cost of building materials, labor, etc it sounds pretty sane to me. But now people everywhere, including the midwest, are afraid of buying in a bubble and losing the money they have invested in their homes.

If you've pulled out of real estate, where do you put your money now? I don't know about the rest of you, but I am not dumping my money back into the market - give me a reason to feel confident that it makes sense to do so and I might get back in, but at present, it doesn't look so rosey. Those 14 month cds at 4.25% are looking pretty good these days. Or if I bury it in my back yard, at least I won't LOSE anything.

Do you think any of this is going to change lending practices - 40 year mortgages, interest only loans, high debt to loan ratios? It's all part of a larger problem - overconsumption, overspending, overextending, overeating... The media (ie: advertisers/lobbyists/sponsors) has programed us to overdo everything without any concern for what's good for us, good for the environment or good for the long-term economy. It's all about somebody making big bucks. I'm sick of the ongoing daily onslaught of sales pitches, misinformation and outright lies. We are little puppets and the saddest part is that the majority of people out there don't even realize they're being manipulated. What to do? I'm awake - what now?

[kurt]

Why not diversify and think long term, in an attempt to achieve a 10% return on your investments?

[pattiw]

Yes, that's the model and I agree that in the long-term it generally works out. Haven't personally seen a 10% gain since the tech crash. But I could always count on my home appreciating because historically it has always done so. If I believe what the media says about the bubble and it effecting me even in Kansas, then that investment is now a risk as well. I'm all for diversification and do have money in the market, but right now putting even more than my standard allocation in every quarter doesn't make sense to me when I see my diversified portfolio of funds sitting there making next to nothing or even dropping a bit. There are lower risk options that at least have a guaranteed return.

[Smiling JOe]

... Those 14 month cds at 4.25% are looking pretty good these days. Or if I bury it in my back yard, at least I won't LOSE anything.
...

I know you say this in jest, and while you may not lose anything physically if you bury your money, but your buying power will definitely decrease at least 3% per year due to inflation.

[pattiw]

I know you say this in jest, and while you may not lose anything physically if you bury your money, but your buying power will definitely decrease at least 3% per year due to inflation.

Only half in jest - If my gains in the market for the year are 2%, I'm still down 1% when you factor in inflation. If I'm making 4%, then I'm gaining 1% factoring in inflation. I'm lucky I have a ways to go before retirement, but at the age where I would like to start seeing some gains before I have to shift to a more conservative investing model.

[Smiling JOe]

Only half in jest - If my gains in the market for the year are 2%, I'm still down 1% when you factor in inflation. If I'm making 4%, then I'm gaining 1% factoring in inflation. I'm lucky I have a ways to go before retirement, but at the age where I would like to start seeing some gains before I have to shift to a more conservative investing model.

...and on top of those low gains, you have to pay the Man.

[kurt]

Yes, that's the model and I agree that in the long-term it generally works out. Haven't personally seen a 10% gain since the tech crash. But I could always count on my home appreciating because historically it has always done so. If I believe what the media says about the bubble and it effecting me even in Kansas, then that investment is now a risk as well. I'm all for diversification and do have money in the market, but right now putting even more than my standard allocation in every quarter doesn't make sense to me when I see my diversified portfolio of funds sitting there making next to nothing or even dropping a bit. There are lower risk options that at least have a guaranteed return.

The interval you mention since the tech crash is short term.

Dollar cost averaging - sounds like you are on top of it.

[pattiw]

...and on top of those low gains, you have to pay the Man.

Good point. There's always that...

[Smiling JOe]

Good point. There's always that...

My first thought is that with any investment paying dividends or interest on an annual basis or more frequently, you pay the Man at the end of the year. However, with real estate you pay the Man after the sale unless you meet the qualifications for selling your home tax free or partially tax free, or unless you 1031 the gains.

After a little more thought of the situation, you are correct in that even with real estate, you pay the Man every year through property taxes, which makes my aforementioned statement mute.

[kurt]

Moral of the story: "It's good to be the man".


Though most likely immoral.

[pattiw]

... However, with real estate you pay the Man after the sale unless you meet the qualifications for selling your home tax free or partially tax free, or unless you 1031 the gains...

Maybe I'm just not a trusting person, but might be part of the reason for the bubble hype as well. Too many people taking advantage of those breaks. You don't have to be a million dollar investor to play the game. Works for $100k properties as well, just smaller returns. Maybe more people benefiting from those breaks than anticipated.

Have a great weekend everybody! Me and my dark cloud are going to the pool for a dose of much-needed sunshine. 11 days to SOWAL and counting...

[pattiw]

Moral of the story: "It's good to be the man".


Though most likely immoral.

I truly enjoy reading this board, Kurt. I try to pop in once a week just to see what's going on. Until today, haven't really posted any opinions - mostly a lurker. Thanks for the outlet for information and commentary.

[kurt]

I truly enjoy reading this board, Kurt. I try to pop in once a week just to see what's going on. Until today, haven't really posted any opinions - mostly a lurker. Thanks for the outlet for information and commentary.

Lurkers are boring.

[skier]

Mack,

Please give some actual examples of resales getting snatched up at prices comparable to homes, lots or condos that sold very nearby last year.

Also, these constant comparisons to Naples are interesting and clearly apples to oranges. The reason Naples will likely always command higher prices than SoWal is because it actually stays warm there all year long. Avg temp in January is 63 versus 52 in SoWal. Lots of rich retirees are looking for year round warmth or warmth in the winter when they migrate to south florida. It gets too cold in the winter in SoWal (with average Jan lows of 37 degrees) for many of these people. Golf is also another big draw for Naples. The golf is also much better and there are more places to play in Naples. The warmer weather makes it more pleasant to play in the winter. Along 30A, there is only one option for golf or you need to drive 15 to 20 miles to play. And, it is too cold for most people to play on many winter days in SoWal.

Naples is not for me, but I'm not a rich retiree from the Northeast. Nor do I play much golf.

My neighbor loves South Walton for the beauty, but he is investing in a condo in Naples for retirement in a few years. Not because it is more beautiful, but because it's warmer in the winter.

At some point, you need to start facing the reality of the current real estate situation in SoWal. Not that the long term won't be okay, but in the short term the market is in bad shape. Too much inventory, and not enough buyers. That WILL drive prices down.

[Smiling JOe]

Mack,

Please give some actual examples of resales getting snatched up at prices comparable to homes, lots or condos that sold very nearby last year.

Also, these constant comparisons to Naples are interesting and clearly apples to oranges. The reason Naples will likely always command higher prices than SoWal is because it actually stays warm there all year long. Avg temp in January is 63 versus 52 in SoWal. Lots of rich retirees are looking for year round warmth or warmth in the winter when they migrate to south florida. It gets too cold in the winter in SoWal (with average Jan lows of 37 degrees) for many of these people. Golf is also another big draw for Naples. The golf is also much better and there are more places to play in Naples. The warmer weather makes it more pleasant to play in the winter. Along 30A, there is only one option for golf or you need to drive 15 to 20 miles to play. And, it is too cold for most people to play on many winter days in SoWal.

Naples is not for me, but I'm not a rich retiree from the Northeast. Nor do I play much golf.

My neighbor loves South Walton for the beauty, but he is investing in a condo in Naples for retirement in a few years. Not because it is more beautiful, but because it's warmer in the winter.

At some point, you need to start facing the reality of the current real estate situation in SoWal. Not that the long term won't be okay, but in the short term the market is in bad shape. Too much inventory, and not enough buyers. That WILL drive prices down.

Skier, I believe you are painting only half of the picture. What about summer, when Naples is so blazing hot that most people bug out? I think your statements regarding the winter in Naples is very accurate, but Naples does not have warm weather as you say, year round.

[Cavallino]

SKIER is playing that broken record again...."The SoWal Real Estate Market Bites the Dust."

However, I have noticed that he is at least showing a pulse of optimism with respect to the longer term - which is what real estate is typically about.

Doug

[skier]

Skier, I believe you are painting only half of the picture. What about summer, when Naples is so blazing hot that most people bug out? I think your statements regarding the winter in Naples is very accurate, but Naples does not have warm weather as you say, year round.

Joe,

If you check out the average temps during June, July, August and September, the avg highs and lows are almost exactly the same in Destin as they are in Naples. The reason the summer is so slow in Naples is because all the rich retirees go back to NY, NJ, etc during the summer. Whereas SoWal get all the younger tourists with families during the summer. It's the warmer winters and the golf that create a more favorable environment for the retirees in Naples.

Another difference between SoWal and many of the other areas that are compared to SoWal is that the lot size adn home size for most SoWal homes is tiny compared to these other places. A $5 million beachfront home in Seaside, Watercolor or Rosemary might have 3000 to 4000 square feet and be built on a lot that is 50 by 100 with another home crammed just 10 to 20 feet away. In Naples, Palm Beach, South Ponte Vedra, Hilton Head, etc. the comparably priced homes are much larger and sit on much larger and more private lots. SoWal beaches are definitely prettier in my opinion, but the homes don't compare in size, privacy, etc. The market comparisons are apples to oranges.

[Buckhead Rick]

Please do not forget you cannot compare property prices from last year with this year in developments with buildouts, this year that lot has 12months less time until the shovel hits the ground. The new Watercolor releases are up 8% per release with each one over surscribed, while Rivercamps keeps moving along at just under that number. By the way I hope everyone saw the front page article on Rivercamp et.al in the NY Times a week and half ago, start looking for some New Yorkers as your new buyers.

[wetwilly]

Please do not forget you cannot compare property prices from last year with this year in developments with buildouts, this year that lot has 12months less time until the shovel hits the ground. The new Watercolor releases are up 8% per release with each one over surscribed, while Rivercamps keeps moving along at just under that number. By the way I hope everyone saw the front page article on Rivercamp et.al in the NY Times a week and half ago, start looking for some New Yorkers as your new buyers.

BH Rick,

You make a good point. The big developments with build out timeframes seem to be hurting on some level. People that bought 3-4 years ago (with 5 yr buildout timeframes) or people that bought a resale with a shorter buildout timeline are now trying to sell them before they have to build and are finding that the new phases of the developments have inventory that they have to move agressively (lower prices to sell quicker) and it is holding prices flat or worst case lower then the "comparable" asking market prices.

I think there are several different submarkets in the sowal area and you can not make sweeping forecasts or predictions that are accurate. There are trends, conditions, and info specific to each submarket ie houses, condos, land/lots and then their are subgroups within submarkets ie houses north of 30A, so of 30A, in big development, small developments etc. It is just not as simple to compare houses vs houses and lots vs lots especially when buildout timeframes and other factors skew the data. Areas, timelines for buildout, and other factors weigh into the buying/selling.

I'm not a real estate or investment profession/expert but this is my 2cents.

[Rita]

BH Rick,

You make a good point. The big developments with build out timeframes seem to be hurting on some level. People that bought 3-4 years ago (with 5 yr buildout timeframes) or people that bought a resale with a shorter buildout timeline are now trying to sell them before they have to build and are finding that the new phases of the developments have inventory that they have to move agressively (lower prices to sell quicker) and it is holding prices flat or worst case lower then the "comparable" asking market prices.

I think there are several different submarkets in the sowal area and you can not make sweeping forecasts or predictions that are accurate. There are trends, conditions, and info specific to each submarket ie houses, condos, land/lots and then their are subgroups within submarkets ie houses north of 30A, so of 30A, in big development, small developments etc. It is just not as simple to compare houses vs houses and lots vs lots especially when buildout timeframes and other factors skew the data. Areas, timelines for buildout, and other factors weigh into the buying/selling.

I'm not a real estate or investment profession/expert but this is my 2cents.

IMHO you at least are considering several more variables in your thinking, which to me makes good sense.

[SHELLY]

When real estate bulls speak of "housing bubbles and busts" they always point to events that proceeded bursting housing bubbles of the past (defense job or tech job losses) to defend their stance that "bubbles" are rare in the absence of such events and prices can indeed keep going up.

I think Hurricane Katrina is just such an "event" with the resulting (projected) higher gas prices and New Orleans/Casino economic crash being the catalysts which will signal the top and subsequent decline of the housing bubble in the South.

Sadly, the scores of homeless people cannot afford to move into $800,000 condos; and plans for rebuilding these areas as they once were will only succeed if they have the working class people to construct and staff these facilities. Prices will level and then decline as time constraints of investors/speculators in the Gulf Coast pre-construction will start a panic followed by the condo and building plot speculators. Panic selling will start in the area surrounding New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast which in turn will spook investors/speculators in other Southern areas setting off a domino effect as short-term investors try to lock in on to their "paper" profits before it's too late (i.e., before the fools run out). Of course, regular homeowers and those whose portfolios aren't overweight in real estate won't even notice.

[Smiling JOe]

With all of the damage caused by Katrina, oil and gas prices will increase sharply. For the construction industry, you should expect all materials to increase in price. With higher construction costs of building, I doubt we will see substantial drops in the housing market. If anything, prices may increase slightly, as new construction comes on the market.

[Bob]

When real estate bulls speak of "housing bubbles and busts" they always point to events that proceeded bursting housing bubbles of the past (defense job or tech job losses) to defend their stance that "bubbles" are rare in the absence of such events and prices can indeed keep going up.

I think Hurricane Katrina is just such an "event" with the resulting (projected) higher gas prices and New Orleans/Casino economic crash being the catalysts which will signal the top and subsequent decline of the housing bubble in the South.

Sadly, the scores of homeless people cannot afford to move into $800,000 condos; and plans for rebuilding these areas as they once were will only succeed if they have the working class people to construct and staff these facilities. Prices will level and then decline as time constraints of investors/speculators in the Gulf Coast pre-construction will start a panic followed by the condo and building plot speculators. Panic selling will start in the area surrounding New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast which in turn will spook investors/speculators in other Southern areas setting off a domino effect as short-term investors try to lock in on to their "paper" profits before it's too late (i.e., before the fools run out). Of course, regular homeowers and those whose portfolios aren't overweight in real estate won't even notice.

We had our largest runup in prices after 3 succesive hurricanes. Prices here were up 36.5 percent jun04-jun05. The only panic involved how to find a roofer. The storms actually created their own prosperity.

[wetwilly]

Not trying to offend anyone here but I personally find it hard to try and think about the so called "bubble" in SoWal when there is such destruction and misery related to this storm on the western gulfcoast. Don't get me wrong and everyone is wired differently but worrying about anything like my real estate position and how this is going to affect it is not at the top of my list or on the top of my mind when the folks of LA, Miss, So Fla, and lower AL are in the middle of the worst natural disaster in recorded history. Personally, everytime I start to think about how lucky we were that our beach house, beach and dunes in Seagrove were spared or how the impact of this disaster is going to have on our investment (and I start to think about it several times a day), I feel very guilty and selfish. These storms are very humbling for me and this one as I see the footage and long term implications of it have made me rethink how I look at events that happen to others. Many times in the past I would mentally isolate these events (if I am not directly affected) but in this case I am having a hard time doing that.

But if forced to think about it, my quick answer is that all will be fine as it relates to our property values because IMO there is little connection or cause and effect between the plight in NOLA and Miss and how our property values will be impacted. Again, IMO you can not easily parallel the real estate crash in Houston due to the oil industry crash or the defense or tech job drops and this event and its affect on the SoWal RE market.

As Bob indicates, the recent past of last year's Hurricanes did not slow or cause a decrease in RE values in SoWal or anywhere else in Fla or the gulfcaost but this could be a different story. Only time will tell. I am going to try not to even think about the bubble for now since it seems somewhat irrelavent at this time and selfish to worry about that when so many others do not have good shelter, food, water, or safety at this time.

Again no direspect to anyone worried about the bubble because until yesterday's events and what I have seen today in the aftermath I was fixated on it too. I'm sure over time I will go back to worrying about it again or maybe not??

I don't subscribe to the SoWal RE doomsday theory anyway. Self adjusting supply and demand is my theory and it will stay high and keep going up over time (maybe not 100% year over year compounded but still healthy). Again these are purely my opinions and thoughts. Maybe I'm in denial on this too.

[SHELLY]

>>I personally find it hard to try and think about the so called "bubble" in SoWal when there is such destruction and misery related to this storm on the western gulfcoast.<<

That's probably because you're a decent person--but vulture capitalists are crunching the numbers as we speak. Just like after Ivan and the other hurricanes, they are on the prowl for "run down" properties that were previously in the vacinity of the waterfront--hoping to pounce when people are most vulnerable. Some of these "scabs" learn through "info-mercial seminars" to go through obituaries and contact widows about "helping them out" by buying their properties.

But things are much different this time.

The Florida hurricanes didn't hit major metro areas and those hurricanes never produced major economic impacts felt nationwide (as with shipping and oil in New Orleans) or statewide (as with casino gambling in Mississippi).

IMO speculators are going to get spooked and start unloading inventory--and along the way hopefully those who've taken advantage of people in their greedy quest will get caught in the squeeze and loose their shirt.

As I've said before--those who own a "home" (not an investment) and aren't too fat in real estate won't notice. One who gets a sick feeling in their belly at the mention of the phrase "Housing Bubble" is more likely than not overweight in real estate.

[Smiling JOe]

...
But things are much different this time.

The Florida hurricanes didn't hit major metro areas and those hurricanes never produced major economic impacts felt nationwide (as with shipping and oil in New Orleans) or statewide (as with casino gambling in Mississippi).
...

I don't understand how you are tying this statement with the remainder of your statement. What is the connection?

On a separate note, I don't know where you were during the storms of 2004 that hit FL, but these storms had major economic impacts felt throughout the southeastern US. All building supplies in the Southeast skyrocketed overnight. Builders found themselves paying double the price for lumber practically overnight. Do you think that had an impact on the price of construction? Produce prices also jumped throughout the Southeast. Crops were destroyed, not just in FL, but in AL and GA, too. Some of these storms caused as much damage in North Carolina as they did in FL. Western NC was flooded, and many businesses and homes were lost. To say that the storms "never produced major economic impacts felt nationwide or statewide," is a not accurate.

[Beach Runner]

Joe,

If you check out the average temps during June, July, August and September, the avg highs and lows are almost exactly the same in Destin as they are in Naples. The reason the summer is so slow in Naples is because all the rich retirees go back to NY, NJ, etc during the summer. Whereas SoWal get all the younger tourists with families during the summer. It's the warmer winters and the golf that create a more favorable environment for the retirees in Naples.

Another difference between SoWal and many of the other areas that are compared to SoWal is that the lot size adn home size for most SoWal homes is tiny compared to these other places. A $5 million beachfront home in Seaside, Watercolor or Rosemary might have 3000 to 4000 square feet and be built on a lot that is 50 by 100 with another home crammed just 10 to 20 feet away. In Naples, Palm Beach, South Ponte Vedra, Hilton Head, etc. the comparably priced homes are much larger and sit on much larger and more private lots. SoWal beaches are definitely prettier in my opinion, but the homes don't compare in size, privacy, etc. The market comparisons are apples to oranges.

Yeah, but like my Buckhead hairdresser who owns an expensive salon put it, the Naples/South Florida market is like an old folks' home, and it totally turned him off when he was looking for a investment. The ambiance in SoWal is just so much more youthful and upscale.

[SHELLY]

>All building supplies in the Southeast skyrocketed overnight. Builders found themselves paying double the price for lumber practically overnight. Do you think that had an impact on the price of construction?<

An increase in material cost does not make it to the "speculator's/investor's" bottom line--if your theory is correct, then the "tide rises all boats" equally across the Southeast and there would be no appreciable "gains" to speak of for "speculators/investors."

>>Produce prices also jumped throughout the Southeast. Crops were destroyed, not just in FL, but in AL and GA, too<<

Crops are very elastic: Cost of OJ too high, drink apple juice; cotton too high, wear polyester....etc., etc.,

Tourism wasn't totally crippled by last year's hurricanes--that's elastic too. Some of Florida's beaches were dashed but there were still plenty of major beaches for folks to go (Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Tampa, Sarasota) and Disney was only down for a couple of days. The more adventurous folks actually discovered that there were 49 other states with stuff to do on vacation.

Granted, in 2004/2005 rebuilding after hurricanes was a major industry for Florida that replaced many of those dismal minimum wage service sector jobs. But (by the grace of God) those reconstruction jobs will end and Florida will revert to the national leader for McJobs (read "service sector") unable to support continued residential price appreciation.

On the other hand, gasoline is not an elastic commodity. One's SUV or Beamer won't go without gas in the tank. And New Orleans ports' access to the Mississippi River for moving cargo north and south through the middle of the US is key to our economy. The poor state of Mississippi relied on the casinos to provide $500,000 daily in revenue to the state and was the major employer for thousands of people living along the coast.

Regardless of what the Real Estate agents or mortgage brokers say, Florida (and coastal property in the South) is neck deep in speculative investment (especially condos & land) that has driven the prices up to unsustainable levels. Some say prices will go up forever, some say real estate prices never will fall, some say there is no bubble--and in a speculator's/investors game, to these statements I say "no it won't," "yes they will," and "yes there is." The smartest speculators will start unwinding some of their deals soon--the dumber ones won't realize what is going on until the music stops and there's no chair--just a spot that reads "The Biggest Fool"

[Bob]

>All building supplies in the Southeast skyrocketed overnight. Builders found themselves paying double the price for lumber practically overnight. Do you think that had an impact on the price of construction?<

An increase in material cost does not make it to the "speculator's/investor's" bottom line--if your theory is correct, then the "tide rises all boats" equally across the Southeast and there would be no appreciable "gains" to speak of for "speculators/investors."

>>Produce prices also jumped throughout the Southeast. Crops were destroyed, not just in FL, but in AL and GA, too<<

Crops are very elastic: Cost of OJ too high, drink apple juice; cotton too high, wear polyester....etc., etc.,

Tourism wasn't totally crippled by last year's hurricanes--that's elastic too. Some of Florida's beaches were dashed but there were still plenty of major beaches for folks to go (Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Tampa, Sarasota) and Disney was only down for a couple of days. The more adventurous folks actually discovered that there were 49 other states with stuff to do on vacation.

Granted, in 2004/2005 rebuilding after hurricanes was a major industry for Florida that replaced many of those dismal minimum wage service sector jobs. But (by the grace of God) those reconstruction jobs will end and Florida will revert to the national leader for McJobs (read "service sector") unable to support continued residential price appreciation.

On the other hand, gasoline is not an elastic commodity. One's SUV or Beamer won't go without gas in the tank. And New Orleans ports' access to the Mississippi River for moving cargo north and south through the middle of the US is key to our economy. The poor state of Mississippi relied on the casinos to provide $500,000 daily in revenue to the state and was the major employer for thousands of people living along the coast.

Regardless of what the Real Estate agents or mortgage brokers say, Florida (and coastal property in the South) is neck deep in speculative investment (especially condos & land) that has driven the prices up to unsustainable levels. Some say prices will go up forever, some say real estate prices never will fall, some say there is no bubble--and in a speculator's/investors game, to these statements I say "no it won't," "yes they will," and "yes there is." The smartest speculators will start unwinding some of their deals soon--the dumber ones won't realize what is going on until the music stops and there's no chair--just a spot that reads "The Biggest Fool"

Where do you live?

[Paula]

As an example, I have friends who bought a condo in Waikiki about 8 years ago when they bought it very inexpensively because people thought there was a bubble (or maybe it wasn't as attractive a place to buy yet). Today, it is worth much, much more and they are delighted to have it and use it frequently. I know another person who had a house on the Big Island of Hawaii and they said they couldn't sell it about 8 years ago. So they rented it out instead and are very happy now that they didn't sell it because the price has increased dramatically.

Seems like property around here is well worth it if you can have some patience and not be tied to short-term ups and downs.

Given all the talk about the bubble and the hurricanes, people have to be careful not to think short-term (and to be sure they have good insurance in place!) or over-extend themselves. Other than those caveats, I feel like those of us who bought places here are in very good shape indeed. And, as long as they don't overextend themselves and think longer-term, people who buy here in the future should be in good shape as well. It's a beautiful place and a fantastic community.

[SandySTL]

All very interesting... my question is: How many millionaires (billionaires) can there be? Everytime I see another million dollar beach place going up, I wonder who are these people that are buying these million dollar second homes? Naples has the appeal to the really wealthy, and it's been booming with new development for a long time. There are also many other "hot spots" at beaches across both coasts and the gulf-- and even in Mexico! (Of course, there are no other better beaches anywhere than SoWal, but as you mentioned, some people are in it for the golf and year-round weather-- nobody can deny that SoWal really slows down in winter) Either there is an endless supply of very wealthy (conservative) investors, or there is rampant speculation that inevitably culminates in a bursting bubble. I tend to think the speculation is a major part of what's going on.

[Paula]

I think there is some short-term enthusiasm that may slow a bit, but only for a bit.

When we consider who has lots of money, I think there's going to be an influx of money to a generation of people whose relatively well-off parents die and who leave them quite a bit of money. The people who inherit the money will have paid for most or all of their current home and will see investing in a second home as a great option for using their inheritance. It would be a wonderful concrete and happy gift from their parents and a sweet way to remember them.

And there are still plenty of very nice properties within a very short walk to the beach (including 3-4 bedroom places, some 2-3 stories if you like big places) around that are under a million dollars. My recommendation for people who are buying for the long-term is to remember that once you buy the place, you have to be able to afford the monthly bills, taxes, and upkeep without worrying month-to-month or depending too much on rentals to pay the bills (in case rentals slow down due to storms during some periods). This way, you don't have to worry about selling your property during a temporary down-turn in the economy or housing market. If you can do this, then SoWal is a rare and unique beautiful beach haven (particularly because it has a slower season, the weather is reasonable all year round, and it won't have malls, high rises, or Wal Marts along 30A -- yet if you want them you can drive 20-30 minutes and find them).

I don't know what advice to give people who want to buy and flip right now --realtors and economists know more about the wisdom of that strategy right now.

[Paradise Sea]

Hey everybody! Chill out!!! If you bought real estate in the South Walton area for a quick killing that was kind of silly. Who could spend any time here and not fall in love with this place. I've traveled all over the US as well as many places around the world and constantly compare every place I visit to 30-A. Very rarely do I ever find our little community suffers by the comparison.

As fare as real estate values go, just look at the history of property values here over the last 10-15 years. It's a pretty impressive record of appreciation and I don't see anything significant that would impact this long term record going forward. Yes, the storms of the last 12 months have put the real estate market on "pause" for a while but this area has survived such storms in the past and real estate has continued to increase in value.

In fact, I believe this area is just now entering a "golden age" in terms of property appreciation. I have been vacationing here since 1985 and my sense of the situation is that we only now reaching a critical mass in terms of the size and amenities necessary to establish a reputation as one of the United States elite vacation destinations.

Consider the valuable infrastructure improvements currently in the works such as the new international airport and highways. I don't think you can underestimate the impact of these transportation improvements. They will open up large new markets for our communities throughout the Midwest (Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburg) and Northeast (DC, Philadelphia, New York and Boston) which currently have only limited access and therefore limited knowledge of our community. I believe that in 5-10 years all that will change and our little community will become a highly popular destination for this large weathly winter warmth seeking population. Then just wait and see what happens to real estate prices then!

If you doubt the impact of an effective transportation network just look at Atlanta. At the time the airport (the first one) was first built both Birmingham and Atlanta were competing for this development. Both cities were about the same size at the time. No offense to Birmingham. I love it there. But, Atlanta won the competition and the rest is history.

Anyway, if you own real estate here because you love it relax!!! You can enjoy the beach and ambiance for the next 5-10 years and retire in comfort. At least that's my plan and I'm sticking to it!

[SHELLY]

I can say my property is "worth" X Million, but that figure is just smoke and mirrors until the cash is in the bank. Any property is only "worth" (after tax, title, and shipping) what the biggest fool will pay for it.

There can be no denying that many Florida (and nationwide) properties are heavily leveraged with cheap money by speculators looking to make a killing as quickly as possible. For the past year or so, as each second ticked by and their properties' "worth" increased, speculators have been getting very itchy. Their gut is telling them to pull the trigger and cash in....but their greed won't let them.

Florida's prices are getting toppy and many of these speculators are now playing a game of chicken. They're up to their eyeballs in "designer" loans to support their "investments" and are teetering on the edge. If some "event" should occur that upsets the balance in their life, they will panic and frantically try to unwind their investment. When this "event" only happens to a single individual, the "bubble" won't burst--but what if this "event" is catastrophic enough to touch tens of thousands?

Look around Florida (including SoWal). "For Sale" signs are popping up (and staying up), open houses, balloons, banners, the words "reduced" and "quick sale" are starting to return to real estate ads. Realtors, who have multiplied like lab mice in the past couple of years, are scrambling all over each other to find listings in the $200,000 range (their inventories are FAT with million dollar homes, condos and pre-constructions that linger).

I don't believe there are enough old, rich baby boomers in the entire universe to fill all the speculative properties currently in investors hands. The phrase "long term investment" is lost on the thousands and thousands of real estate speculators who are snapping up 2-year option ARMs that they secured with the help of CPA Moms:

http://www.cpamomsunlimited.com/Lett...tgageLoans.htm

The music is playing, they are circling the chairs....remember the uneasy feeling you felt in the pit of your stomach when you believed the music played just a little too long?......speculators who believe they are overextended in real estate feel that way as each new day dawns. One thing is for certain--the music will stop--and some of them will lose the game. (For those who follow the economy, it's extremely entertaining to watch this thing play out.)

[Smiling JOe]

I can say my property is "worth" X Million, but that figure is just smoke and mirrors until the cash is in the bank. Any property is only "worth" (after tax, title, and shipping) what the biggest fool will pay for it.

I know many "fools" who bought property here long ago, and people said they were stupid. I wonder, who is really the fool?

Are you married to Skier?

[Paula]

Sounds like some people fully support the bubble (which may or may not exist for the short term). Maybe they want to help promote a panic and bring prices down so they can swoop in and buy some property(ies) to sell later at a higher price. Call me crazy, but I'm keeping my cottages on 30A. They're so sweet and they make me happy regardless of any potential bubble. And owning them keeps me from wasting money in ways that don't bring happiness or that don't add value...

[skier]

I know many "fools" who bought property here long ago, and people said they were stupid. I wonder, who is really the fool?

Are you married to Skier?

You guys know I agree with all the things Shelly has been saying. I am not married to her, but my wife is even more convinced of the bubble than me or Shelly.

The "fools" JOe mentions that bought long ago were not SPECULATORS, they were owners that used the properties. The market changed dramatically over the last 3 years with rampant speculation. Shelly is talking about this huge amount of speculative buying that has occurred over the last few years. This is a much different scenario than the buying that occurred in the "old days" that you old timers talk about.

Many, many of the people I know that own property in SoWal bought numerous properties over the last 3 years (up to 10 in some cases), not to grow old in and enjoy with their kids and grandkids, but to make a quick buck. Some of these people overextended (shelly's scenario) and they need to get out soon. These people will drop prices until they sell and it will drive prices down across the board. You are blind if you don't see the current trends in the market place.

For those of you that want to keep your homes long term, that's great. You won't get hurt if you can afford the home you live in. You won't take a loss or make a gain until the "cash is in the bank." But, a large chunk of the buyers in watercolor, watersound, rosemary, etc. are not long termers. If they were, you wouldn't have over 200 properties for sale in Watercolor, 80 plus in watersound, 50 plus in rosemary, 50 plus in seaside, etc. There is a mass exodus that wants to happen, the problem is, there are no buyers. My realtor says the market is DEAD and so do my neighbors and friends that are trying to sell their homes, condos, and lots. And, I did confirm that the folks at Alys are making calls to drum up business. When was the last time a major developer along 30A had to go looking for buyers? Just last year, Arvida had 75 to 100 people in each lottery for condos and lots. SPECULATORS. No more.

And those of you that actually think that Shelly or I could create a panic that would result in bargains that we would somehow take advantage of are crazy. You have mighty big imaginations. No individuals could create panic in the market. The market is moving. If you can't see it, you need to open your eyes. You can pie in the sky all day about ever increasing returns, but the current facts don't back you up.

Also, the hurricanes have made a bad situation even worse. Everyone I bump into at work or around town over the past few days tells me I am crazy if I keep my house in Florida. Friends that had an inkling to buy a beach home before the first of the hurricanes last year, no longer have an interest in beach property. Many say they will buy in the mountains or on a lake instead.

We have definitely had a change of heart since Katrina blew through the gulf last weekend. I don't want to wake up one day and see my house leveled along with the rest of 30A. The insurance costs are excorbitant now and they will only go up. And, my property taxes are outrageous. I am no longer sitting on the fence. I am a SELLER now. I want to take my money and run. Become a renter like I used to be. Still enjoy the area, but not have to worry about hurricanes, taxes, insurance, etc. Simplify my life--one home should be enough.

Unfortunately, I don't know if there are any buyers out there.

[kurt]

Unfortunately, I don't know if there are any buyers out there.

Always - if the price is right. If you are really a seller you will find out what that price is.