January Real Trend Report in Walton Sun

[fisher]

The real trend report for January for all of Walton County showed the following data--

Home sales--units down 20% to 111, total dollar volume down 38% to $48.5 million, and average price down about 20% to $437k.

Lot sales--units down 50% to 193, total dollar volume down 64% to $19.8 million and average price down 28% to $102k.

Condo sales--units up 184% to 136, total dollar volume up 308% to $116.8 million and average price up 44% to $850k.

Home sales and lot sales continue to move ever lower in the county in spite of the increase in activity discussed by several realtors on the board.

The condo sales look interesting and I would be interested to hear from some realtors as to what happened in January. Were there a large number of closings on condos sold preconstruction during the boom? Or, is this a true uptick in condo activity?

[Geo]

Is this versus December totals or year over year?

Thx.
GW

[Beach Dad]

My Dad used to tell me to believe "none of what you hear" and "only half of what you see". The optimistic rah-rah I keep hearing and reading from agents who want sellers to believe the big pay day is right around the corner just isn't meshing with reality.

Here is a statistic: The number of buyers willing to pay a ridiculous price for a home is down 100% in my household.

If I were a betting man (and I am betting with my hard earned dollars), I truly believe a much deeper correction is about to begin. Smart buyers aren't going to pay premium prices when half the county is for sale.

Just get in the car and drive around SoWal. How many developers are competing for buyers right now? Oh, that's right... they all have deep pockets and can wait out a correction. Pfffft. They didn't acquire those big parcels of land with extra cash they had just lying around. Funny, but borrowed money has a price. And builders get a little nervous when there is no work for them. Things are about to get very competitive. And a little patience might go a long way if you are a buyer.

If you pull up the MLS listings you'll see how many dumpy 3 bedroom homes are listed in the $499,000 and up range. Heck, they might as well ask for a million. They aren't going to get it despite whatever the listing agent convinced them it was worth. I want to yell that at the knucklehead that has the little row houses listed on 393 for $299,000. He can have open houses until hell freezes over, but those houses will never be worth what he is asking.

I've been looking and will continue to wait until prices are more realistic. I know five realtors in the area and none of them are selling squat. I hate it for those trying to support a family, but until sellers decide to start ignoring fools and start selling at a reasonable profit margin, they are going to get the same results as Mr.Optimistic on 393.

Many of the lot prices are a joke too. One day I will buy or build in Pt. Washington. I love the area. But some of the sellers need to get real. One nice lot in Pt. Washington purchased just over a year ago for $139,900 was listed for $386K. The owner dropped the price 4 times, down to $375K and I guess gave up and took it off the market. I drove right down the street to an almost identical development and lots were listed for $350K to $400K. It's almost comical.

Let's see, maybe I'll be one of the lucky ones and really get a great lot buy for $275,000... then I can pay $195 a sq. ft. to build a 2000 sq.ft home. Hmmm... $665,000 plus another $350/mo for homeowner's coverage and maybe $250+/mo for property taxes. Sorry, but that's where a fool and his money are soon parted.

I've thought long and hard about how this happened. The only thing I want to ask realtors is who do you think caused the market to go crazy? Did the beauty of this area suddenly cause everybody to get financially stupid? Or was it the new proposed airport? Or the article in the latest trendy magazine? Do they really think people are that stupid?

No. The realtors poured gasoline on this fire and have had a direct impact in artificially inflating prices to the point where they will now suffer the consequences. I hope the greedy ones starve for a while. They created this Frankenstein's monster and it's going to get ugly for architects, builders, bankers, mortgage lenders, and suppliers.

[30A Skunkape]

Wow, great post Beach Dad

[Smiling JOe]

Right. Realtors sent the market into the dump. Buyers willing and wanting to hand over large amounts of cash to sellers had nothing to do with it.

[FLSunChaser]

The real trend report for January for all of Walton County showed the following data--

Home sales--units down 20% to 111, total dollar volume down 38% to $48.5 million, and average price down about 20% to $437k.

Lot sales--units down 50% to 193, total dollar volume down 64% to $19.8 million and average price down 28% to $102k.

Condo sales--units up 184% to 136, total dollar volume up 308% to $116.8 million and average price up 44% to $850k.

Home sales and lot sales continue to move ever lower in the county in spite of the increase in activity discussed by several realtors on the board.

The condo sales look interesting and I would be interested to hear from some realtors as to what happened in January. Were there a large number of closings on condos sold preconstruction during the boom? Or, is this a true uptick in condo activity?

Grand Dunes, South Tower closed in January, that probably has a lot to do with the increase. The majority of those sales were over a million dollars.

[Beach Dad]

And I stick to my guns when I say the realtors fed the fire. And the realtors aren't the only ones that are going to suffer the consequences. Those who bought to flip property are now praying the "correction" is over. Of course it's the other guy that will have to take the hit, not them. They are too smart to lose money. Right. So they'll sit and wait it out instead of selling me and others a place for my family to realize my lifetime dream of owning a home in a great area with great people, without having to have 5 jobs to afford it.

Most of the buyers weren't looking to settle in SoWal, they just wanted to use it for a little while so they could make their cash and move on to the next investment. Let me guess, you feel good because your property value has increased as a result? It might look good on paper, but try selling in today's market.

Of course I am a hypocrite. In another post, I did make fun of those who gripe on the vent. I'm just too long winded to condense mine to a paragragh. :-)

SoWal didn't have to become the new Miami when it comes to home pricing. I can't help but think of the expression we use in medical sales that says, "Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered." I'm all for folks making a reasonable profit. But just like the stock brokers who drove the technology stocks to record overvalued levels, the correction will come.

I just strongly resent having to compete with speculative investors from the North who are trying to get me to make them wealthy sellers from the north. And that especially includes those who flocked to the gold rush who are "Northerners" from Bham, Atlanta, Memphis, etc, Sorry Doctor, I'm trying to educate my kids, not your's.

[Ohio Girl]

Right on Beach Dad. Greed, greed, greed.

[Just_In_Thyme]

I was born and raised in Atlanta, and spend as much time in SoWal at our home as time allows. I resent the insinuation of being called a "Northerner". I love grits, UGA, and even a good tobacco dip once in a while. I am a southener sir.
Sorry you missed out on the boat and didn't buy before the big upswing in prices. Maybe they will come down to those levels again, maybe not.

[Beach Dad]

I yield to the Senator from Trafficville. Why don't you move down here permanently? You better hurry. There's a rumor on the streets that they aren't making any more groceries you know. Southern food is in great demand down here and people are buying like it is going out of style. You could sell GA peaches for $10 each. You can make a killing. :-)

BTW, we used to say anything north of Huntsville is Yankeytown. I guess you slipped in. And War Eagle you UGA lovin bullpup, but get it right will ya? It's not grits... it's Georgia ice cream.

I'm not whining that I missed the boat, my day will come. Some of this just sounds alot like a line from the Clint Eastwood flick "The Outlaw Josey Wales" (think that's the spelling). I would say to some of the realtors down here, "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining."

[fisher]

Is this versus December totals or year over year?

Thx.
GW

Year over year.

[fisher]

Grand Dunes, South Tower closed in January, that probably has a lot to do with the increase. The majority of those sales were over a million dollars.

thanks, that helps to explain what appears to be a major anamoly.

[fisher]

Beachdad--your time will likely come. Prices will continue to fall. By the way, a lot of those investors you talk about are selling at losses even now. More will have to take the hit in order to divest of properties they overpaid for. I hate to see people take losses, but that can happen when greed takes over.

[fisher]

[QUOTE=geowickey;208507]Is this versus December totals or year over year?

Thx.
GW[/QUOTE

Except for the anamoly with condos, unit sales in January are very comparable to December.

[fisher]

[QUOTE=Beach Dad;208523]Here is a statistic: The number of buyers willing to pay a ridiculous price for a home is down 100% in my household.

Smart buyers aren't going to pay premium prices when half the county is for sale.

I disagree slightly with your comments above. I do think there will still be some people that will overpay for a property because they aren't smart enough to do adequate research about the market or they have too much money and don't really care about the price. They see something they like and they buy it. Take the unnamed buyer of a house in Watercolor. He paid the highest price ever paid for a house in Watercolor, $3.85 million during the latter part of 2006 as prices continue to fall. Not a smart buy IMHO--he could have gotten a much better deal if he had shopped around or waited a while. But, he probably had enough money that he just didn't want to waste the time and effort.

It's very similar to going to the grocery store. A low income person that has no disposable income will labor to find the lowest priced generics in the store while someone with a little more money won't shop too hard to find low prices. Or, a car purchase. Some people labor to find the best price on a Toyota Camry while a higher income person might simply go to a single Lexus dealer, negotiate a bit, but basically pay more than the car is actually worth just to eliminate any hassle of buying.

So, there will be some high income individuals that will pay a high price for a $10 million property in the retreat or $7 million in Rosemary or $4 million in Watercolor and they don't care if the day they "drive it off the lot" the value goes down by 20% or more (none of these recent purchases would come close to reselling at the price paid by these high worth individuals). But, for the most part, prices will continue to decline because most of us will research and negotiate to find the best price possible. Inventory levels will demand price decreases, especially for builders and investors with lots of product. John Willis and Monte Hewett homes are a couple of examples.

[30A Skunkape]

While I can't make a blanket statement regarding greed, I couldn't believe what happened when we made the softest of inquiries regarding a vacant house there a few weeks ago. Some folks just can't wrap their brain around the fact that a house is like any other product on the market-it is only worth as much as somebody is willing to pay for it (and NOT what the appraisal stated 3 years ago). I am thinking if we relocate to the area, renting a primo house or condo that is sitting empty and waiting for rock bottom to buy is the way to go...and the bottom is still far off.

[spinDrAtl]

And I stick to my guns when I say the realtors fed the fire. And the realtors aren't the only ones that are going to suffer the consequences. Those who bought to flip property are now praying the "correction" is over. Of course it's the other guy that will have to take the hit, not them. They are too smart to lose money. Right. So they'll sit and wait it out instead of selling me and others a place for my family to realize my lifetime dream of owning a home in a great area with great people, without having to have 5 jobs to afford it.

Most of the buyers weren't looking to settle in SoWal, they just wanted to use it for a little while so they could make their cash and move on to the next investment. Let me guess, you feel good because your property value has increased as a result? It might look good on paper, but try selling in today's market.

Of course I am a hypocrite. In another post, I did make fun of those who gripe on the vent. I'm just too long winded to condense mine to a paragragh. :-)

SoWal didn't have to become the new Miami when it comes to home pricing. I can't help but think of the expression we use in medical sales that says, "Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered." I'm all for folks making a reasonable profit. But just like the stock brokers who drove the technology stocks to record overvalued levels, the correction will come.

I just strongly resent having to compete with speculative investors from the North who are trying to get me to make them wealthy sellers from the north. And that especially includes those who flocked to the gold rush who are "Northerners" from Bham, Atlanta, Memphis, etc, Sorry Doctor, I'm trying to educate my kids, not your's.

LIfe is all about making choices, right or wrong. If one feels the prices are too high or inflated, don't buy. If someone wants to speculate, that's their choice. They might get burned or they might not. If one's choice was to purchase 5 pre-construction units in a tower on Panama City Beach, then they live with that choice.

Folks can do what they want with their money, stupid or smart. If you don't want to pay off the speculators, wait them out. If you want someone to just sell you your dream house at a price of your choosing, then I don't really know what to say except that basic economic laws of supply and demand will eventually determine where pricing will end up. You will have to decide what the fair price is for realizing 'your lifetime dream'.

[Smiling JOe]

If I understand correctly the logic of the nattering nabobs of negativity (i.e. day traders), it is not to buy real estate in a buyer's market.

You got it. People follow trends. The money makers go against the flow.

[Babyblue]

My Dad used to tell me to believe "none of what you hear" and "only half of what you see". The optimistic rah-rah I keep hearing and reading from agents who want sellers to believe the big pay day is right around the corner just isn't meshing with reality.

Here is a statistic: The number of buyers willing to pay a ridiculous price for a home is down 100% in my household.

If I were a betting man (and I am betting with my hard earned dollars), I truly believe a much deeper correction is about to begin. Smart buyers aren't going to pay premium prices when half the county is for sale.

Just get in the car and drive around SoWal. How many developers are competing for buyers right now? Oh, that's right... they all have deep pockets and can wait out a correction. Pfffft. They didn't acquire those big parcels of land with extra cash they had just lying around. Funny, but borrowed money has a price. And builders get a little nervous when there is no work for them. Things are about to get very competitive. And a little patience might go a long way if you are a buyer.

If you pull up the MLS listings you'll see how many dumpy 3 bedroom homes are listed in the $499,000 and up range. Heck, they might as well ask for a million. They aren't going to get it despite whatever the listing agent convinced them it was worth. I want to yell that at the knucklehead that has the little row houses listed on 393 for $299,000. He can have open houses until hell freezes over, but those houses will never be worth what he is asking.

I've been looking and will continue to wait until prices are more realistic. I know five Realtors in the area and none of them are selling squat. I hate it for those trying to support a family, but until sellers decide to start ignoring fools and start selling at a reasonable profit margin, they are going to get the same results as Mr.Optimistic on 393.

Many of the lot prices are a joke too. One day I will buy or build in Pt. Washington. I love the area. But some of the sellers need to get real. One nice lot in Pt. Washington purchased just over a year ago for $139,900 was listed for $386K. The owner dropped the price 4 times, down to $375K and I guess gave up and took it off the market. I drove right down the street to an almost identical development and lots were listed for $350K to $400K. It's almost comical.

Let's see, maybe I'll be one of the lucky ones and really get a great lot buy for $275,000... then I can pay $195 a sq. ft. to build a 2000 sq.ft home. Hmmm... $665,000 plus another $350/mo for homeowner's coverage and maybe $250+/mo for property taxes. Sorry, but that's where a fool and his money are soon parted.

I've thought long and hard about how this happened. The only thing I want to ask realtors is who do you think caused the market to go crazy? Did the beauty of this area suddenly cause everybody to get financially stupid? Or was it the new proposed airport? Or the article in the latest trendy magazine? Do they really think people are that stupid?

No. The realtors poured gasoline on this fire and have had a direct impact in artificially inflating prices to the point where they will now suffer the consequences. I hope the greedy ones starve for a while. They created this Frankenstein's monster and it's going to get ugly for architects, builders, bankers, mortgage lenders, and suppliers.

I guess it was the stock brokers who created the dot com bust as well. None of the buyers or sellers had any thing to do with it? Am I correct? Or was it just the day traders who did not use a broker, that sat at their desk trading millions of shares a day? Really, people could not be that stupid could they?

[30A Skunkape]

If I understand correctly the logic of the nattering nabobs of negativity (i.e. day traders), it is not to buy real estate in a buyer's market.

Is it really a buyer's market if sales are in the tank? I think it is the day traders who muddied the waters in the first place;as a matter of fact, many of those titans of speculation are now the proud owners of unflippable property.

[Babyblue]

I yield to the Senator from Trafficville. Why don't you move down here permanently? You better hurry. There's a rumor on the streets that they aren't making any more groceries you know. Southern food is in great demand down here and people are buying like it is going out of style. You could sell GA peaches for $10 each. You can make a killing. :-)

BTW, we used to say anything north of Huntsville is Yankeytown. I guess you slipped in. And War Eagle you UGA lovin bullpup, but get it right will ya? It's not grits... it's Georgia ice cream.

I'm not whining that I missed the boat, my day will come. Some of this just sounds alot like a line from the Clint Eastwood flick "The Outlaw Josey Wales" (think that's the spelling). I would say to some of the realtors down here, "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining."

Who burned you on a deal?

[Beach Dad]

I didn't get burned. Just venting about the general state of affairs.

[Babyblue]

I didn't get burned. Just venting about the general state of affairs.

Well how are medical sales doing?

[30A Skunkape]

Well how are medical sales doing?

Exactly. Since he isn't a realtor and didn't play flipolla, and isn't willing to act quickly in this buyers market, he really should just hush and sell bedpans.

[JoshMclean]

It is not just this area that is being affected by the Real Estate slump. The entire country is in the same dilemma. I just read an article saying that Venice Beach led the country with an 18% drop in the 4th quarter. Springfield, Illinois dropped off 16.2%. Everyone gets upset about Realtors touting the market turnaround. I don't think we have hit bottom yet, but I think we are close. Where is the bottom in your opinions? When is the market going to turn around? Please shed your mighty wisdom on us all.

[JoshMclean]

I just say, "Thank God we're not California!" $500,000 won't get you a treehouse 2 hours from the beach!

[Beach Dad]

I wouldn't argue that the daytraders didn't play a significant role. And I'm not smart enough to go research what % of the market their trades represented. I do know how many of my Physician clients were getting calls from broker reps trying to get them to get on board however. It was a daily event. You can't argue that realtors and/or brokers cannot or do not influence bad trends. I'm not buying.

[30A Skunkape]

It is not just this area that is being affected by the Real Estate slump. The entire country is in the same dilemma. I just read an article saying that Venice Beach led the country with an 18% drop in the 4th quarter. Springfield, Illinois dropped off 16.2%. Everyone gets upset about Realtors touting the market turnaround. I don't think we have hit bottom yet, but I think we are close. Where is the bottom in your opinions? When is the market going to turn around? Please shed your mighty wisdom on us all.

We will only realize the bottom has been reached after hitting and then rebounding. That can be determined via objective data. More subjective signs that the bottom is behind us will be realtors no longer 'throwing-in' a Mercedes Benz with that new home purchase!

[fisher]

If I understand correctly the logic of the nattering nabobs of negativity (i.e. day traders), it is not to buy real estate in a buyer's market.

Depends on how long the buyers market lasts and how low it goes. You don't want to buy in the beginning of a buyers market if it's going to last 5 years and prices fall the entire time.

It was a buyers market last year at this time too. So, as prices have continued to fall, those buyers in a "buyers market" are now under water. the perfect time to buy is just as a buyers market is turning to a sellers market. Next best time would be in the early stages of a runup/sellers market (ie: SoWal in 2003).

Timing is everything.

[Beach Dad]

Josh,

You can't make your point without the insult? Where did I call you out personally? And while your at it, show me where I proclaimed myself as the all-wise one? That's a cheap shot.

Since I am so ignorant, why don't you impart the wisdom? I've driven by your personal home. It's nice and from the web shots, it is nicely furnished. Why hasn't it sold? Let me guess, it is due to real estate being down all over the country. I should have known. Could price have anything to do with it? Or maybe the abundant supply of houses for sale within 10 miles of your street? How does it feel to be stuck in the middle of a stagnant market?

I don't know when the bottom will come. And I'll make the best choice that I can personally and hope for the best. I just refuse to believe things aren't going to change in the next few months. There are too many signs (both literally and figuratively) that shouldn't be ignored.

I don't expect everybody to agree with me, nor did I ask for such in my posts. (I've got to learn how to post under the correct heading.)

[Beach Dad]

Well. I haven't gouged a customer in years.

[30A Skunkape]

Josh,

You can't make your point without the insult? Where did I call you out personally? And while your at it, show me where I proclaimed myself as the all-wise one? That's a cheap shot.

Since I am so ignorant, why don't you impart the wisdom? I've driven by your personal home. It's nice and from the web shots, it is nicely furnished. Why hasn't it sold? Let me guess, it is due to real estate being down all over the country. I should have known. Could price have anything to do with it? Or maybe the abundant supply of houses for sale within 10 miles of your street? How does it feel to be stuck in the middle of a stagnant market?

I don't know when the bottom will come. And I'll make the best choice that I can personally and hope for the best. I just refuse to believe things aren't going to change in the next few months. There are too many signs (both literally and figuratively) that shouldn't be ignored.

I don't expect everybody to agree with me, nor did I ask for such in my posts. (I've got to learn how to post under the correct heading.)

Give 'em hell beach dad!

[SHELLY]

A "Buyer's Market:"

An exchange on a November showing of FOX's Cavuto on Business, guest is Real Estate Diva Barbara Corcoran:

Neil Cavuto: If home prices slip will it lead to a housing bust or a major buying opportunity? Barbara Corcoran says a dip in home prices is a big buying opportunity! So, Barbara I don’t mean to be cynical but you’re in the business so you’re going to hype it all you can.

Barbara Corcoran: Well, no I’m not going to hype it all I can. I’m also a buyer in the business and a seller in the business. There’s so much uncertainty in the market right now that it really is a great time to buy. And I don’t think it’s going to last very long. Come January, everyone who doesn’t buy their house right now for the price they can afford is going to wish they had because they’re going to be paying more in January.

Jim Rogers: What’s going to make them go up in January?

Barbara Corcoran: In January you can set your watch to Super Bowl Sunday.


.

[SHELLY]

A "Buyer's Market:"

An exchange on a November showing of FOX's Cavuto on Business, guest is Real Estate Diva Barbara Corcoran:

Barbara Corcoran: Well, no I’m not going to hype it all I can. I’m also a buyer in the business and a seller in the business. There’s so much uncertainty in the market right now that it really is a great time to buy. And I don’t think it’s going to last very long. Come January, everyone who doesn’t buy their house right now for the price they can afford is going to wish they had because they’re going to be paying more in January.

Jim Rogers: What’s going to make them go up in January?

Barbara Corcoran: In January you can set your watch to Super Bowl Sunday.

Oh crap! Did I forget to mention that this interview was done in
NOVEMBER.........2005 (!)

[fisher]

Oh crap! Did I forget to mention that this interview was done in
NOVEMBER.........2005 (!)

[Just_In_Thyme]

[QUOTE=Beach Dad;208594]I yield to the Senator from Trafficville. Why don't you move down here permanently? You better hurry. There's a rumor on the streets that they aren't making any more groceries you know. Southern food is in great demand down here and people are buying like it is going out of style. You could sell GA peaches for $10 each. You can make a killing. :-)

BTW, we used to say anything north of Huntsville is Yankeytown. I guess you slipped in. And War Eagle you UGA lovin bullpup, but get it right will ya? It's not grits... it's Georgia ice cream.

Georgia Ice Cream? Where are you from?

I don't need to hurry down there permanently. My house cash flows just nicely, paying the mortgage, insurance, taxes and all my incidental expenses, even leaving me a little extra. I'm in no hurry, because I did my research and bought at the right time, for something that met my needs and even in a down market has exceeded my expectations in a return on investment. I get to come down with my family and enjoy the wonderful area.

[SHELLY]

"the perfect time to buy is just as a buyers market is turning to a sellers market."

Very insightful - you must have slept in a Holiday Inn Express last night with Shelly.

.......smoked my last cigarette and didn't even leave cabfare on the nightstand as promised!!


.

[Beach Dad]

Sounds like a great situation that has worked out well for you. Also sounds like your research payed off. I couldn't agree with you more about it being a wonderful area.

I grew up in Bham and heard that Georgia ice cream comment a long time ago. Thought I would pull your leg a bit.

[Smiling JOe]

Depends on how long the buyers market lasts and how low it goes. You don't want to buy in the beginning of a buyers market if it's going to last 5 years and prices fall the entire time.

It was a buyers market last year at this time too. So, as prices have continued to fall, those buyers in a "buyers market" are now under water. the perfect time to buy is just as a buyers market is turning to a sellers market. Next best time would be in the early stages of a runup/sellers market (ie: SoWal in 2003).

Timing is everything.

I'm not sure that I completely agree. Yes, you can get lucky so timing is important, but you cannot accurately predict the market, so how do you know when the market becomes a seller's market, rather than just a slight uptick, ie - false bottom?

It isn't timing the market, it is time in the market. With time, you will see prices increase.

One other thing I disagree with in your statement is that you say it was a buyers market this time last year. I disagree. Prices were still much higher than any buyer was willing to pay. A buyer's market is when prices reach levels where it is attractive for buyer's to buy. I am seeing some properties in this category right now, but the truth is that the overpriced properties outweigh the value buys right now. That doesn't mean that you cannot shop for a value right now, but it does show me that inventory of listings is not an accurate indicator of the market. When there are two identical lots side by side with a price fluctation greater than 40%, at least one of those two lots isn't really for sale.

On a bigger picture, I understand what you are saying in your post.

EDIT: revisting that which I stated earlier, the buyers and sellers set the market price, not the Realtors. If Realtors set the market price, we would see many more sales today than we are seeing.

[Smiling JOe]

Well. I haven't gouged a customer in years.

Beach Dad, you state that you didn't personally attack Josh McLean, but you attacked many of us when you throw all Realtors into a group of "gouging" people. Not all people are the same. If you want to blame someone, blame a seller for placing the price so high. Oh, wait a minute... what is wrong with the sellers putting a high price on their property when three offers come in simultaneously, and the buyer will sell to someone else at a simultaneous closing, leaving the original seller out the extra $100K or two, which seller number two will take without having to come up with more than their Earnest Money Deposit?

The market sets the price. If you do not understand that, you should keep your money in CD's.

end of message

[Smiling JOe]

Oh crap! Did I forget to mention that this interview was done in
NOVEMBER.........2005 (!)

Even a better example of people not being able to time the market. The market will do its thing, and people will see ups and downs only in retrospect.

[Bobby J]

I wish we had the power to affect an entire market! I am guilty of getting excited about what I am selling. It was the same in the art business. As a "salesperson" you get sales when you have enthusiasm about your product. Folks seem to get upset when that product is real estate. Almost bitter! BTW, I have a funny feeling the Feb sales trend will be up over January . My office and many other agents I have spoken with have been very busy. I posted 3 new sales last week alone. If this weekend is a sign of things to come I will need to hire more agents to join my team. Please Pm if interested.

BTW, selling a product like SOWAL makes is easy to be enthusiastic!

[Bobby J]

For SJ,

You can't stop the waves from breaking but you can learn to surf!!!

[Smiling JOe]

For SJ,

You can't stop the waves from breaking but you can learn to surf!!!

Thanks, Bobby J! I love that quote. One day, I will enscribe it on my dining table.

[Bobby J]

This saying only applies to people with good knees!!!!

[fisher]

[QUOTE=Smiling JOe;208756]
It isn't timing the market, it is time in the market.

I think those that bought at the peak of this cycle--say $850 or $950 per square foot for a home in areas where they are now going for $600 or less--will need to be in the market a long, long time (if ever) before they make any money and even then, the rate of return will be nominal.

One other thing I disagree with in your statement is that you say it was a buyers market this time last year. I disagree. Prices were still much higher than any buyer was willing to pay.

Then why were more homes and lots sold in January 2006 than in January 2007?

[fisher]

I wish we had the power to affect an entire market! I am guilty of getting excited about what I am selling. It was the same in the art business. As a "salesperson" you get sales when you have enthusiasm about your product. Folks seem to get upset when that product is real estate. Almost bitter! BTW, I have a funny feeling the Feb sales trend will be up over January . My office and many other agents I have spoken with have been very busy. I posted 3 new sales last week alone. If this weekend is a sign of things to come I will need to hire more agents to join my team. Please Pm if interested.

BTW, selling a product like SOWAL makes is easy to be enthusiastic!

Historically, isn't February always better than January? If so, I won't be surprised either. However, I doubt that February 2007 will be better than February 2007. We shall see.

[Bobby J]

Historically, isn't February always better than January? If so, I won't be surprised either. However, I doubt that February 2007 will be better than February 2007. We shall see.

I think Feb 2007 will be the same as Feb 2007. Exactly, dead even!

[Smiling JOe]

This saying only applies to people with good knees!!!!

One doesn't have to surf to understand surfing.

[Bobby J]

One doesn't have to surf to understand surfing.

Well put! Here is another.

Try to remain calm when you are down.