Impact of Hurricanes on Real Estate Market

hi n dry · 11-18-2005, 12:51 PM

Florida Panhandle Real Estate Market Report

The following article addresses the impact of hurricanes on the Florida Panhandle real estate market. In this report you will find information about factors affecting hurricane risk, population growth and post-hurricane effects on real estate markets.

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Are Hurricanes Going to Blow Away the Florida Real Estate Market?

FOR THE COMPLETE ARTICLE WITH IMPORTANT LINKS CHECK OUT:

http://www.uniquepanhandleproperties...ate_market.htm

by Deborah Orr
UniquePanhandleProperties.com

Many naysayers are predicting the demand for Florida beach property to decrease as a result of recent hurricane activity and concerns of increased hurricanes in the future. Having lived in Florida since 1969, I can only say that I wish that I had started investing 20 hurricanes ago. While quick flippers may be disappointed by the slowing of the exhorbitant appreciation rates of 2004, traditional investors looking for predictable appreciation will still find Florida a sound real estate investment.

According to Stan Smith, director of the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, " The 2004 hurricane effects on Florida’s population growth will likely be small and short-term – with possible lingering effects in some local areas – but are not likely to influence long-term population trends, unless there are several consecutive years of high hurricane activity. Despite summertime heat, humidity and hurricanes, Florida has many positive attributes that include warm winters, sandy beaches, low taxes and rapid job growth."

Natural disasters have been around forever. So have beach lovers. People who live on the beach know the risks and apparently consider the benefit to be greater than the risk.

The Beach = Relaxation
Health studies have identified stress as a major factor in disease and aging for decades. Beaches are associated with rest and relaxation. Lazy days building sandcastles with the kids, the gentle sound of the waves crashing onto the shore and romantic sunset walks on the beach lure millions to spend their vacation or "down time" at the beach each year.
Hurricanes are not unique to Florida. They have caused devastation as far north as Rhode Island and they didn't start in 2004, yet Florida has experienced a 30-fold increase in population over the last 100 years and is predicted to increase an average of 1,000 people per day between 2004 and 2010 according to the University of Florida, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (UF/IFAS) . Interestingly, (UF/IFAS) predicts 5 of the 6 "hot" growth areas for this period to be in coastal areas.

This growth trend continues in spite of highly publicized and sometimes catastophic hurricanes which wreak havoc on older structures and mobile homes. Such devastated areas never fail to bring a flurry of investors and developers seeking bargain land where new, luxury real estate can be erected with lower acquisition costs and increased profits because they know that time heals all wounds and the area will again become a thriving destination. This is supported by the fact that many displaced Katrina victims migrated to the beach areas of the Florida Panhandle in spite of the fact that their homes had just been destroyed by hurricane Katrina. The result ......hurricanes cause cities to be redesigned thereby increasing property values.

Until 2001, the state building code required buildings to withstand winds of 90 mph to 110 mph, depending upon proximity to the coastline. In 2001, the requirements increased to 110 and 140 mph for the coastal areas. Damage to new structures in recent storms has been minimal compared to the total destruction of many pre-2001 buildings.

Three areas of the United States demand some of the highest real estate values in the country. Earthquakes are a continual threat in California, New York City will always be an enticing target for terrorism and Hawaiians live under the unpredictable threat of volcanic eruption.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), "The greatest potential for loss of life related to hurricane is from the storm surge, which historically has claimed nine of ten victims". In fact, hurricane surge presents a greater risk to both life and property than hurricane winds. Coastal elevation maps published by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) show that the Florida Panhandle, also known as the Florida Uplands, and specifically The Emerald Coast has some of the highest coastal elevations in the Southeast United States.

The US Dept of the Interior, US Geological Survey (USGS) published a Coastal Classification Atlas to assess coastal storm vulnerability in the Northwestern Panhandle of Florida ( USGS Open File Report 2004-1217) noting that "The impact vulnerability for most storms is low where the beaches are wide, the natural dunes are several meters high and continuous along the beach, and the dunes are stabilized with vegetation." A comparison of 3 coastline maps produced by this project show the following:

The East Pensacola area of Florida's Panhandle has significant overwash terrace and few dunes. Overwash areas occur when storm waters exceed the elevation of the adjacent land and the ocean water flows onshore. Most of the beach width is greater than 30 meters of natural beach but there are a number of areas that are less than 30 meters wide.

The Beaches of South Walton are of Florida's Panhandle has primarily continuous high dunes and wide natural beach greater 30 meters wide.

The Galveston , Texas area has large coastal areas that are absent of protective dunes and have sporatic areas where the beach is less than 30 meters wide.

CONCLUSIONS
Vacationers continue to seek the tranquility of Florida beaches
Hurricanes cause coastal communities to be redesigned when older, damaged structures are replaced with new, more expensive properties
Massive Florida inmigration is predicted to continue
More stringent Florida building codes are mitigating damage to newer structures in the wake of hurricanes.
Coastal dunes and the width of the beach determine vulnerability to storm surges which is the greatest risk to life and property during hurricanes

What's your conclusion?

FOR THE COMPLETE ARTICLE WITH LINKS CHECK OUT:

http://www.uniquepanhandleproperties...ate_market.htm

SHELLY · 11-19-2005, 10:39 PM

My conclusion is that this is a "shameless self promotion" blog from a real estate website:

UNIQUE PANHANDLE PROPERTIES REAL ESTATE WEBSITE

What would you expect from a Realtor who is in the business of selling property on the panhandle....in the words of John Stossel, "Give me a break."

gotothebeachmom · 11-19-2005, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SHELLY

My conclusion is that this is a "shameless self promotion" blog from a real estate website:

UNIQUE PANHANDLE PROPERTIES REAL ESTATE WEBSITE

What would you expect from a Realtor who is in the business of selling property on the panhandle....in the words of John Stossel, "Give me a break."

Actually, you could give us all a BREAK! We've read the book, we know Cork, we ain't buyin'

Sell it someplace else! PLEASE!

hi n dry · 11-19-2005, 11:10 PM

TO SHELLY: Are you upset that someone actually wrote a well researched article rather than just spouting off meaningless and unsubstantiated platitudes like you do?

I am curious, what specifically do you disagree with other than the fact that a professional wrote this?

Also while you are at it why don't you explain the source of all your anger and cynicism?

Cork On the Ocean · 11-20-2005, 12:24 AM

Boy guys, chill out. First, I didn't post the article to the forum. I was asked to look into the vulnerabilty of the emerald coast to hurricanes, spent days researching it and apparently a client posted it. I am a broker and rather than lip service I try to provide factual information regarding my business which is real estate. My articles have been published by both independent online and print publications including informational resources provided to real estate and investment attorneys. In previous employment, I've authored recommendations to presidential committees and federal agencies and drafted language for statutes and emergency orders on behalf of the state of Florida. My cv is extensive regarding my past performance. I've been qualified as an expert witness in 3 areas and I'm not selling real estate because I couldn't get through college.

The article is factual and if you own real estate on 30A, I would think that the vulnerability of the area would be of interest. While we all know that acts of God are uncontrollable, I found the information somewhat comforting since I love the beach and apparently 30A is not as vulnerable as other coastal areas.

I'm sorry if you don't like the way I run my business but I choose not to send mailers out to other realtor's clients or post pictures of my cat on my website. I don't spend money on ads playing on someone else's name and I don't lash out to people that have done it to me. I work very hard. I tell people both the pros and the cons rather than blowing smoke up their dresses (so to speak :-) and they reach out to me.

I don't have the time to spend all my waking hours on the board saying mean things about others and I wouldn't if I did have the time. I'm clueless why people judge people that they don't even know because the only person that I judge is myself. I don't say unkind things to or about people and I volunteer my time to many valuable causes. Spending time focusing on myself and trying to become a better person is more productive for me than focusing on the actions of others and I'm happier for it.

In the words of Lao Tzu, "In dwelling, live in harmony. In dealing with others, do not judge."

Smiling JOe · 11-20-2005, 06:22 AM

Skier, oops, I mean Shelly,
What is so wrong with Cork's blog? Even if she did post it here, which she didn't, what is wrong with that? I read no inaccuracies, and she is a pretty good speller.

redfisher · 11-20-2005, 08:40 AM

Hey SJ, could you post the Metro Market Trend numbers for Oct if you have them...Red

Smiling JOe · 11-20-2005, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by redfisher

Hey SJ, could you post the Metro Market Trend numbers for Oct if you have them...Red

When I receive them, I will post them. However, I will be out of town most of next week.

In the mean time, pm SoWalSally and see if she will post, from the Walton Sun, the article on 3rd qrt 2005 v 2004 RE sales for FL. The numbers look good.

Miss Kitty · 11-20-2005, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

When I receive them, I will post them. However, I will be out of town most of next week.

In the mean time, pm SoWalSally and see if she will post, from the Walton Sun, the article on 3rd qrt 2005 v 2004 RE sales for FL. The numbers look good.

Ya' think redfisher and SHELLY would see 'good' numbers???? SJ...the eternal optimist!!!

Cork On the Ocean · 11-20-2005, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

Skier, oops, I mean Shelly,
What is so wrong with Cork's blog? Even if she did post it here, which she didn't, what is wrong with that? I read no inaccuracies, and she is a pretty good speller.

I miss Skier. No one to spar with

. What do you mean "pretty good speller"?. I had it proofed, find anything else? Already went through the inmigration thing, it's a word. If you see anything else would be happy to know. Neatness counts!

Miss Kitty · 11-20-2005, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cork On the Ocean

I miss Skier. No one to spar with

. What do you mean "pretty good speller"?. I had it proofed, find anything else? Already went through the inmigration thing, it's a word. If you see anything else would be happy to know. Neatness counts!

I feel your pain Cork...skier always left us either shaking or scratching our heads!

SHELLY · 11-20-2005, 02:20 PM

Great property for sale....no hurricanes....great views!

Great Investment Seaside Property for Sale

Beach Runner · 11-20-2005, 03:10 PM

I haven't done any scientific research on this subject, but anecdotal evidence tells me that:

(a) If someone in financial precariousness could sell a property, they would.
(b) If someone in no financial precariousness could sell a property at a really nice profit, they would.
(c) If someone in no financial precariousness could sell a property at a small profit, they wouldn't. SoWal is too awesome to give up.
(d) I have a family member with a really nice beach-near lot who has held off on building because of the hurricanes and not being able to at minimum break even if they were to decide to sell.

I mean, we've talked about buying a beachfront condo and selling our home, but then we'd be back in the baby-poops-in-pool-closed mode or having to pack up to go to the beach. I'd rather just sell and rent than go back to those inconveniences.

How does this relate to hurricanes? The arrival of a hurricane takes both an emotional and financial toll - boarding up (or spending a kajilion dollars on hurricane shutters), wondering if your home will still be intact when you drive back to inspect it after a hurricane. Every time we leave our home after boarding up and arrive after the storm, we're on the verge of puking. It's very emotional.

We've decided that we're strong enough to deal with it, although I don't know if we'll feel the same way in, say, ten years.

In the meantime, our house is always on the market at a price that we cannot refuse (as in The Godfather ).

Smiling JOe · 11-20-2005, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cork On the Ocean

I miss Skier. No one to spar with

. What do you mean "pretty good speller"?. I had it proofed, find anything else? Already went through the inmigration thing, it's a word. If you see anything else would be happy to know. Neatness counts!

No misspellings that I can see. As I said, you are a pretty good speller. (FYI - pretty good doesn't equate to worse than good.)

Perhaps I should have written, "pretty darn good speller, too."

Miss Kitty · 11-20-2005, 07:26 PM

Hey SJ...I must ask about your avatar...looks like BR's daughter got a hold of the dog! Cool! And I have noticed smilie Santa as well....a nice addition. Tell me...blah, blah, blah about it!

Beach Runner · 11-20-2005, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sueshore

Hey SJ...I must ask about your avatar...looks like BR's daughter got a hold of the dog! Cool! And I have noticed smilie Santa as well....a nice addition. Tell me...blah, blah, blah about it!

It's a gif with indexed color and he mapped the index to a new color array in PhotoShop?

Cork On the Ocean · 11-20-2005, 08:58 PM

Hitting the road in the AM but had to stop in to see if we were all playing nice now.

Sue. I couldn't pull myself away when Skier was posting. I think all in all he's probably a pretty nice guy and everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion. It's just the name calling and judgement of others which I don't think was Kurts intent for this board but there is something to be said for the entertainment factor. Where's the popcorn?

Totally agree with Beach Runner. Until you see it, there's no way to comprehend the emotional and financial impact of disaster. I left NOLA with a renewed gratefulness for everthing I have. My home, my family, my pet, my health and even the people who aren't always kind to me. It was the worst thing I've ever experienced and one of the best because I was able to help in some small way. It transcends economical and educational differences and brings us back to the fact that we're all the same and need to care about others. I'm so thankful that I am able to lock up my "stuff" and drive away. Many weren't that lucky.

Am I strong enought to deal with it? Honestly don't know but I trust that the strength comes to us when we need it. There's no way to avoid what's out of our control so I work with what I can control which is my reaction to it.

SJ- I won the first grade spelling bee.

Does that count?

Have a great Thanksgiving, Guys

gonebyby · 11-20-2005, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

Skier, oops, I mean Shelly,
What is so wrong with Cork's blog? Even if she did post it here, which she didn't, what is wrong with that? I read no inaccuracies, and she is a pretty good speller.

SJ,

Shelly does not equal skier.

I (skier) dropped my "membership" when I realized how crazy I was to be arguing in cyberspace (so I set up the Gonebyby name just so I could post a response to your message).

I have no desire to argue with anyone in cyberspace again. We all have our opinions and my opinions won't change yours and vice versa. I have no desire to post messages about the real estate market but I do read messages from time to time. Just saw your post above so I wanted to set the record straight. Shelly can take care of her/himself.

See ya at the beach.

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone.

Skier

steele mama · 11-20-2005, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gonebyby

SJ,

Shelly does not equal skier.

I (skier) dropped my "membership" when I realized how crazy I was to be arguing in cyberspace (so I set up the Gonebyby name just so I could post a response to your message).

I have no desire to argue with anyone in cyberspace again. We all have our opinions and my opinions won't change yours and vice versa. I have no desire to post messages about the real estate market but I do read messages from time to time. Just saw your post above so I wanted to set the record straight. Shelly can take care of her/himself.

See ya at the beach.

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone.

Skier

Smiling JOe · 11-20-2005, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gonebyby

SJ,

Shelly does not equal skier.

Just when I thought I had it all straight, I get a kink.

Thanks for clarifying. If nothing else, you should at least stick your head in and say hi every once in a while.

Good on ya, gonebyby.

Beach Runner · 11-20-2005, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cork On the Ocean

Until you see it, there's no way to comprehend the emotional and financial impact of disaster. I left NOLA with a renewed gratefulness for everthing I have.

Jeez, I can't even comprehend going through Katrina with a home in NOLA. Hope you have a nice Thanksgiving, despite going through all of that.

Miss Kitty · 11-20-2005, 09:40 PM

Oh no...skier gonebyby...did you sell your house? Come back and tell us.

Cork On the Ocean · 11-20-2005, 10:08 PM

This is addicting. Welcome back Skier

. As I said before, it takes a big person to admit when we make a mistake. Beach, sorry I wasn't clear. I didn't have a home in NOLA. I did a pet rescue mission there. Was very rewarding when we did have a reunion between owner and pet.

Beach Runner · 11-20-2005, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cork On the Ocean

I didn't have a home in NOLA. I did a pet rescue mission there. Was very rewarding when we did have a reunion between owner and pet.

Oh, that *would* be rewarding!

Miss Kitty · 11-20-2005, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cork On the Ocean

This is addicting. Welcome back Skier

. As I said before, it takes a big person to admit when we make a mistake. Beach, sorry I wasn't clear. I didn't have a home in NOLA. I did a pet rescue mission there. Was very rewarding when we did have a reunion between owner and pet.

I knew you were good people, but now I want to tell you...Cork, you are good people! Thanks for helping the animals.

Cork On the Ocean · 11-20-2005, 10:39 PM

I know I'll get packing soon.

Sue, we did our best but the sad thing is we had so many that we had to make room for all the new ones getting rescued everyday so they were shipped to shelters all over the country making it nearly impossible for their owners to find them. Then there's the concern that they might be euthanized anyway at the various shelters after suffering like they did and hanging in there till we got there. It was truly a sad situation. You can't imagine how many there were so it was purely an effort to save a small fraction.

The upside is I'll be picking up my rescue dog next week and plan on giving her the wonderful life she deserves.