goofer44

in view of blackstone buying Hilton Hotels ( i wonder if paris is part of the deal) is it worth buying JOE as a speculation?? I have been waiting for JOE to hit 40. Granted that HLT and JOE are separate biz models but there has been alot of activity in the reit sector regard buyouts this year and I am wondering if the next activity will be in companies like JOE or even some homebuilders who are selling at or below book value. there is an excellent research report by smith barney that was published thursday that is really good, discussing homebuilders and the recovery that THEY think will start next year. after the reset of adjustables in the next six months and the subsequent flush, maybe the recovery will start next year But in any event is it worth putting some money into JOE now (25%) and waiting ?

drsvelte

I have limit order in to buy JOE @ 26.

goofer44

take a "nothing done" on your order.

drsvelte

Huh?

goofer44

that means you will never buy the stock at that price ever. I have a hard time seeing it at under 40 i used to be a trader on wall st. and "nothing done" meant you did not execute your order.

drsvelte

[QUOTE]that means you will never buy the stock at that price ever.[/QUOTE]

Maybe. A bottom fish at '03 prices is OK with me. There is some support at around 42. But I'll wait - no rush on this.

SHELLY

What exactly would Blackstone do with JOE once they got their hands on it? They usually jump in to make money fast and get out of Dodge. The way they can accomplish that is to flush all of Placemaker JOEs 'amenities promises' down the drain; have a BIG fire sale on the leftover lots; carve up the swamp land and sell it off at dirt cheap prices; and sell off any hotels, condos and homes that are on the books.

JOE's P/E is @ 51 vs GOOG @ 46...what's up with that? In June JOE sold off 15 office buildings (to bolster its quarterly earnings no doubt.) Why offer to buy JOE shares at a premium when Blackstone can just wait patiently and scrape JOE off their shoe later on down the line?


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__________________
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)

Florida State Flower

goofer44

Shelly

I am not saying blackstone would buy JOE but another private equity firm or a strategic buyer. you do not buy JOE or any real estate play based on earnings but on asset value. JOE's mkt cap is $3.5 billion. with a million acres you are paying $3500 an acre for PRIMO acreage. not alot of debt and a substantial amount of completed physical plant. seems cheap to me going forward. smith barney's report is compelling on their analysis of homebuilders looking out 3 years.

SHELLY

Well then, by all means...buy 25% starting tomorrow


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__________________
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)

Florida State Flower

egrp

goofer the private equity binge on real estate is a leverage play. They find assets that are generating cash flow and then purchase them with debt to increase return on equity. private equity has no interest at all in buying assets that will take generations to produce earnings. These guys are paid on annual profits (20-40%), so the heat is on to produce strong positive returns every year. In summary, it is laughable to think private equity would buy JOE...now another homebuilder, etc. is a different story and i actually would not be surprised if that happens.

goodwitch58

I heard Resort Quest was just sold again...anyone know and if so, who bought it this time? (Sorry to hijack but your post made me think of this)

kathydwells

Just Read THIS.

__________________
~He can who thinks he can, and he can't who thinks he can't. This is and inexorable, indisputable law.~ Pablo Picasso.

goofer44

ok..thanks for the input. i will wait until JOE dribbles down to 40 to start buying. I guess there is no reason to start now at 47.

SHELLY

Goofer,

Get ready to pull the trigger on JOE @ 40...today's the day.


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__________________
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)

Florida State Flower

egrp

nasty nasty day for the mkt...its been a while...still would be leary of homebuilders and financials with mortgage exposure. the mortgage exposure companies may be a bit oversold as i think jobs and income will still keep losses fairly low even though loan to values are creeping up...but homebuilders....they will continue to get hurt

goofer44

shelly

i have my $40 bid in for 500 shares to get started. they report on the 31st.
i will scale down my position to 35 over time and then wait .
i really dodged a major bullet when i pulled my bids in the homebuilders. WWHEW !! i want to own JOE since i am down here and talk to some of the middle mgt guys and i see what the potential is over the long term.
i am adding to my position in home depot. there is a dutch tender on the table from 39-44 but i am not sure in this environment hd can do the financing. if they can do the deal it will significantly reduce the float.

goofer44

i am adding to C and BAC. note that bank of america raised their dividend by 14% to an annual $2.56 which yields 5.3%. not a bad return while you wait for the fear to leave the mkt. 85% is tax exempt under present law. the major money center banks are not exposed to any serious degree to sub prime. imho i think you are getting a GREAT opty to buy some of the great financial companies while they are on the clearance table.

Smiling JOe

I like C, but BAC really pissed me off when I was a customer, many years ago when they started charging me to walk in the door to deposit money. Over the years, I heard many other individuals whom they have greatly upset via terrible practices. I know they focus on the businesses as their customers, but if they abuse the everyday individual, they will not think twice about abusing their larger accounts. For those reasons, I would never help them continue their mission, whatever that happens to be.

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goofer44

jeez...i am really surprised. i have my checking acct at bac. no fees, very helpful and friendly people ( in sedona, anyway ), and the best internet banking i have ever experienced. they are making tons of money because they are global and well diversified. as a shareholder i am pleased and as a customer i am very pleased. they are the only bank besides wachovia that have branches in the places i hang out. btw, i just opened an acct at wachovia. they own World Savings which they got through by buying golden west financial. world savings has the best cd reates in the country.
worldsavings.com.

Smiling JOe

Glad to hear that you are having a better experience than me and people I know who had accounts at BAC. Maybe they have changed their ways somewhat, but I still hear accounts of people who are treated without a care in the world about keeping them as customers at BAC.

Fundamentally, BAC looks good on paper, but when I invest, it isn't 100% about the money. I also have to feel good about the company and their practice, and I just don't get that feeling with BAC. To each his own, though. That IS what makes the world go around, and keeps it interesting.

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goofer44

amen, brother.
life is a marathon, not a sprint.

Paige

I would not buy any stock hoping for a private equity take over right now. The private equity firms are being squeezed by the banks.

drsvelte

In this credit environment, I don't think any buyouts of JOE are feasible. I like the long-term asset play, but I'm going to wait until 26-31.

Rambunkscious

The state of Florida, & expecially northwest coastal Florida (Joe Country) has
so many problems now that buying Joe would probably not be a prudent move maybe unless it hits 20 or so. Their developments have stalled, the current
Florida real estate environment is at historic low levels, the demand for Joes inventory (building lots) is dismal given the historic high levels of foreclosed homes and a five year supply of new homes on the market at present. The current problems are not getting solved and Florida and Joe will continue to suffer.

SHELLY

JOE's conference call is on Tuesday, Jul 31...will be interesting to see how they spin the current and future markets and gloss over how their stock is trading at the 2004 price level.

Given the current state of affairs with conventional stick-home-builders, I imagine they'll really talk up their most current strategic alliance with the modular homebuilder they're using for their WaterSound properties.

I won't be too surprised if we get some kind of "Airport Update" on Jul 30 so Pete can put a happy face on JOE's future.....we'll see.

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__________________
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)

Florida State Flower

Rambunkscious

Shelly, there's talk about Joe using modular homes at other Joe communities. There are physical and architectural limitations on modular construction. Joe has never been one to do something like this.This demonstrates how desperate they are and rightfully so. I think they are trying to hit a lower price point with a smaller home with generic designs. The airport is their only holy grail & could be the shot that would gradually turn things around. And then if things get really ugly, maybe rates will drop way down again, it is a bad situation but they have always pulled things out.......what do you think?

Smiling JOe

There are also physical and architectural limitation when building on postage stamp size lots. Remember that JOE paid almost nothing for its property, so they can still profit from selling lots for cheap. Now that might not sit well with shareholders because all they care about is the stock price moving up, which has more to do with public opinion rather than business fundamentals.

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Rambunkscious

Smiling Joe, agreed, & it would not sit well either with other lot owners & homeowners who have paid much more for their lots & houses. There is almost no way out for Joe here, but self preservation is a strong motivator.

goofer44

St. Joe as an entity has been around for almost 80 years !!! Every industry, as well as the economy in general, have their hiccups and catastrophes. It is all part of the natural ebb and flow called the business cycle. As sure as day follows nite, the real estate mkt and St. Joe the stock, will recover and prosper. The antidote is time and and further pain. The analogy is cancer. The patient needs surgery, chemo therapy, and recuperative time to return to health. I think the surgery has been performed and chemo is now being administered. If ones has a longer term perspective, the present condition offers a wonderful opty. Be prudent and use common sense. Don't gamble with the rent money. As the bible says, "THIS TOO SHALL PASS".

Chickpea

Agreed! I would imagine that any smart developer would understand the often predictable cycle or roller coaster ride (possibly more apt term) of real estate and housing- what goes up will come down and will go up again - eventually.

Chickpea

Small is the new big....

SHELLY

There are people out there who think that we'll see a repeat of the 2004-06 frenzied high-priced condo/home/lot grab & flip.....I'd bet the rent money that it's not going to happen again in my lifetime.



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__________________
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)

Florida State Flower

Rambunkscious

Shelly, remember you are only 29 years old and your lifetime is going to go out into the next century. Please reconsider your betting of the rent money.

SHELLY

29? Must be the Botox.


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__________________
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)

Florida State Flower

drsvelte

Said goofer

Well, JOE is at 39.42 now.

robertsondavies

My bias is against shorting JOE is over now (actually has been over for a few dollars), and I agree that a long bias should be investigated slowly now.


Doubling Down?? Averaging Down?? Many a fortune were painfully thrown to the wind, during the last popping bubble (Tech/Internet Stocks in 2001 through 2002 end) by betting that the "good times" would come back quickly, rather than die painfully until everyone HATES the asset class.

When my neighbors and your neighbors start speaking of real estate investments, as poison, it'll be time to re-invest fully.

time will tell.

goofer44

drsvelte

I am losing 58 cents on 500 shares. Yikes.....the sky is falling !!!

SHELLY

Goofer,

Here is Cramer's rendition of what an "Economic Meltdown" looks like:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eaMj1DPI6U



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__________________
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)

Florida State Flower

goofer44

I, for one do not want to see the Fed lower the fed funds rate this week. It would send a signal that anyone who has screwed up because of their own greed or stupidity would be bailed out by the Fed. Individuals as wells as corporations need to be held responsible for their own actions. Only if the general economy and the broad financial system is breached by the credit crunch caused by subprime/junk bond financing and a domino effect hits the financial system, should the Fed act by lowering rates. But we are far from that. Banks have tightened up their lending requirements only recently. The fear caused by the bankruptcy of various subprime mortgage companies and the blow up of 2 Bear Stearns hedge funds that invested in subprime junk, were the events that caused the financial panic the last 10 days. On further reflection,those may be just the excuses for a much needed correction of 10% in the market. It was just 2 short weeks ago when everyone was celebrating Dow 14000 !! There will be further financial "thumpins" in the weeks ahead but I do not think the large money center banks and investment banks will fail. They will have big write downs but they will prevail. The poorly managed institutions such as subprime and junk financings investors {hedge funds} and providers of subprime credit (such as American Home) , will suffer most of the carnage and bankruptcies. I have said before that the only way to cure the cancer is radical surgery......that is what is happening now. The job of the astute investor is to identify the opportunities and buy the companies that have been tossed out because of the panic that has ensued. If the Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citicorp or Goldman Sachs were to ever fail.....that would create a world-wide depression worse than 1929-1932. We are very far from that happening.

drsvelte

Goofer...

I think you are right about the possibility that there may soon be a buying opportunity in some stocks. But I don't think that includes JOE. This company is totally premised on using their land for development. There is a huge inventory overhang in Florida currently (and particularly Bay County where JOE has a lot of property), which will take some time to work off. Given tightened mortgage hurdles, higher rates, and the uncertainty surrounding the sub-prime, Alt, etc mortgages, this stock is not going anywhere soon.

I am not ragging you about JOE going under $40, but you said this was very unlikely. Look at the chart, there is distribution big time. You'd be a better buyer at 31.

SHELLY

Almost none of American Home Mortgage loans was subprime...they were essentially adjustable rate and Alt-A mortgages (no doc/low doc for people with good credit scores who couldn't--or wouldn't--show documented income such as investulators, folks working on commission, Mafia, drug dealers and the like). My guess is that the Mafia and drug dealers are keeping up with their mortgage payments just fine.


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__________________
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)

Florida State Flower

goofer44

drsvelte

you may be right about JOE going to 31. trading at 37 now. Its trading down like a hot knife through butta !!!

goofer44

Housing stocks in orbit. Did the FED's action of recognizing the credit issues create the bottom in housing, bank, and broker stocks ???? Comments ??

SHELLY

Nah, nah, nah.


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__________________
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)

Florida State Flower

goofer44

ALL I am saying is that the issue of a credit crunch and foreclosures on middle income families has now caught the PUBLIC attention of the Federal Reserve. It is also now front and center in the POLITICAL arena and Presidential debates. I have no clue if this starts a sea change but it is certainly something to start thinking about. If FNM or congress comes to the rescue to ward off foreclosures.....doesn't that warrant something ??? My interest is in the stock market NOT buying Real Estate. May be the stock market will start to think about whether or not something may be afoot !!!

Smiling JOe

Goofer, have you been on Hillary's website, today? You may be on to something.

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goofer44

I would only go on her website if I wanted material and pictures to create a dart board !! But it just makes sense to me that as we are in the political season, an awful lot of "stuff" can happen in Washington that might focus on saving stupid people from their stupid mistakes.
When the Fed starts to acknowledge the problem publically and the leading presidential candidates make noises AND the speculators are talking of "things" going on behind the scence at Treasury regarding Hank Paulsen, Fannie Mae and the pols.......this all bears watching. We may be seeing the BEGINNING of the journey towards the end of the housing depression !!!

drsvelte

You don't have AFLAC???

SHELLY

"Housing depression?"

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__________________
But hey...Top Ramen tastes a whole lot better when you eat it off of a Granite Countertop. (Mr & Mrs Too Much Homebuyer)

Florida State Flower

BeachSiO2

Yes, the houses are sad that they were built and are now sitting empty. They yearn for the pitter patter of little feet and joyous celebration like their "friends" in other established neighborhoods have. Houses have feelings too. Maybe what the market needs is really medical help, not financial