Invest 93 -- Big storm looks like it's still heading toward NOLA

Smiling JOe · 09-20-2007, 06:55 PM

From Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:38 AM EDT on September 20, 2007

This second low pressure system was identified as "93L" by NHC beginning at 2 pm EDT yesterday. However, now that the low has weakened crossing the Florida Peninsula, the "93L" designation has been taken away from it, and attached to the upper level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Recent Satellite loops and the Tampa Bay long range radar show that this non-tropical low pressure system is beginning to get more organized and is acquiring tropical characteristics. Substantial pressure falls are occurring at the surface underneath the upper level low, and this system is on its way to becoming a subtropical depression. A surface low pressure system vertically aligned with a cold-cored upper level low will usually take two or more days to make the transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. Rapid intensification cannot occur until the system is fully warm-core. Since landfall is expected Saturday between the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Louisiana, 93L probably does not have time to become fully tropical. If 93L makes landfall Saturday, it should not have winds stronger than about 55 mph. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models all keep 93L's winds below 55 mph. If the storm spends an extra day over water and makes it to Texas, as the ECMWF model predicts, 93L could become fully tropical and make landfall as a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds. However, there is plenty of dry air in the environment, and I don't think the storm will be able to intensify to a strong tropical storm. The primary threat from 93L will be heavy rain, and the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas border can expect a soaking from this system.

jdarg · 09-20-2007, 08:21 PM

Sounds like a rainy weekend is shaping up!

Smiling JOe · 09-20-2007, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdarg

Sounds like a rainy weekend is shaping up!

That is not good for getting your screened porch completed.

jdarg · 09-20-2007, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

That is not good for getting your screened porch completed.

I am looking forward to hearing rain on that tin roof!

Smiling JOe · 09-20-2007, 08:45 PM

I just checked the models.

Of the three computer models shown, one track is headed for Mississippi, one for Alabama, and one for the Panama City area!

If it grows and heads this way, you can join me as I head across the Bay and well hang out at Camp Smiling JOe in Freeport and boil some Crabs on the propane burner, but bring some pillows and sleeping bags.

As another note, my trick knee is hurting now, so I know we are in for some weather of some sort.

jdarg · 09-20-2007, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

I just checked the models.

Of the three computer models shown, one track is headed for Mississippi, one for Alabama, and one for the Panama City area!

If it grows and heads this way, you can join me as I head across the Bay and well hang out at Camp Smiling JOe in Freeport and boil some Crabs on the propane burner, but bring some pillows and sleeping bags.

I need an RV.

Smiling JOe · 09-20-2007, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdarg

I need an RV.

I have a few tents you could borrow, but I wouldn't trust the big limbs in the Oak Trees. We could set you up a bed on my screened porch (no tin roof though).

jdarg · 09-20-2007, 09:00 PM

I spent the afternoon somewhere around Alaqua- the cross country team ran hills (big ones) on Eglin land. It was absolutely beautiful. But the snake skeleton I found (still with skin and looked to be a pygmy rattler) reminded me that there are too many critters out there to sleep on the ground.

savvytangerine · 09-20-2007, 09:05 PM

Turned over the weather channel and Jim Cantore (sp?) is in Pensacola!

I like the guy... but generally he seems to be in the center of the storm. I want rain, but I don't want rain that bad.

NoHall · 09-20-2007, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

I just checked the models.

Of the three computer models shown, one track is headed for Mississippi, one for Alabama, and one for the Panama City area!

If it grows and heads this way, you can join me as I head across the Bay and well hang out at Camp Smiling JOe in Freeport and boil some Crabs on the propane burner, but bring some pillows and sleeping bags.

As another note, my trick knee is hurting now, so I know we are in for some weather of some sort.

Would someone please bring some trick knees up here? My dogwood is dying!!! And all that rain looks like it's going west of here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdarg

I need an RV.

If you need to come to the nice, dusty foothills of beautiful North Georgia, I have a couple of extra places to sleep!

NoHall · 09-21-2007, 06:17 AM

Al Roker just said that y'all are getting nasty weather today...Be safe!!!

jdarg · 09-21-2007, 06:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoHall

Would someone please bring some trick knees up here? My dogwood is dying!!! And all that rain looks like it's going west of here.

If you need to come to the nice, dusty foothills of beautiful North Georgia, I have a couple of extra places to sleep!

Wow- it is not only missing you, it is heading in the opposite direction! Sorry NoHall!

Looks like I will need to get out a big stack of towels- we are going to have some wet dogs.

Smiling JOe · 09-21-2007, 07:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoHall

Would someone please bring some trick knees up here? My dogwood is dying!!! And all that rain looks like it's going west of here.

If you need to come to the nice, dusty foothills of beautiful North Georgia, I have a couple of extra places to sleep!

My knee predicts that you are going to get some hard fast rain tomorrow or Sunday.

Smiling JOe · 09-21-2007, 07:20 AM

A slight rain has started in SoWal.

jdarg · 09-21-2007, 07:21 AM

I just discovered that I no longer own a decent raincoat.

Guess I'll just have to go shopping.

Smiling JOe · 09-21-2007, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdarg

I just discovered that I no longer own a decent raincoat.

Guess I'll just have to go shopping.

I think all of my raincoats are in boxes somewhere, not even in this house. Guess I'll just have to wear my swimsuit and Chacos.

Smiling JOe · 09-21-2007, 07:31 AM

The computer model maps just updated. Look at the linked photos above, which are updated now. One model has moved more toward SoWal (was closer to Panama City) and one towards Navarre. The storm's center is currently reported about 100 miles south of Apalachicola, and heading NNW. Batten down the hatches, close the sunroofs and close the windows unless you want boats, cars and your house, filled with water.

yippie · 09-21-2007, 07:40 AM

Here, check this out -

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima...s/storm_93.gif

Jim Cantori - He is the reason I stopped watching the weather station. It is all BS for him. He WANTS to be in the middle of everything, so he tries to create excitment and create situations. The guy was laughable during Hurricane Dennis.

Smiling JOe · 09-21-2007, 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yippie

Here, check this out -

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima...s/storm_93.gif

Jim Cantori - He is the reason I stopped watching the weather station. It is all BS for him. He WANTS to be in the middle of everything, so he tries to create excitment and create situations. The guy was laughable during Hurricane Dennis.

Thankfully, I no longer watch TV unless I catch a glance at the gym.

grace · 09-21-2007, 07:56 AM

Had a little teaser shower that came and went.
Bring on the downpour!

kathydwells · 09-21-2007, 07:57 AM

Well this is just great....my co-worker and friend, and her 2 sisters and another friend are at Emerald Hill Condos. (the one I stayed in in July) for the weekend. They got there yesterday afternoon. I guess they are going to get wet. I hate that for them, but I am glad that you all will be getting some much needed rain. Hopefully the storm will not be too bad. We sure could use some up this way.....

Smiling JOe · 09-21-2007, 08:01 AM

Well, your friends certainly aren't getting any sunshine. Been overcast for two days.

Uncle Timmy · 09-21-2007, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yippie

Here, check this out -

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima...s/storm_93.gif

Jim Cantori - He is the reason I stopped watching the weather station. It is all BS for him. He WANTS to be in the middle of everything, so he tries to create excitment and create situations. The guy was laughable during Hurricane Dennis.

I agree. The hype is way over-done.

Last night they were hyping "The Disturbance along the Gulf Coast" (cue the ominous music). How lame, it's not even a Tropical Storm and they are still trying to wip up excitement.

Ocean Lover · 09-21-2007, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kathydwells

Well this is just great....my co-worker and friend, and her 2 sisters and another friend are at Emerald Hill Condos. (the one I stayed in in July) for the weekend. They got there yesterday afternoon. I guess they are going to get wet. I hate that for them, but I am glad that you all will be getting some much needed rain. Hopefully the storm will not be too bad. We sure could use some up this way.....

bummer

Stay safe and dry everyone!

30A Skunkape · 09-21-2007, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncle Timmy

I agree. The hype is way over-done.

Last night they were hyping "The Disturbance along the Gulf Coast" (cue the ominous music). How lame, it's not even a Tropical Storm and they are still trying to wip up excitement.

You know they are praying for a New Orleans event. Instant drama and ratings.

jdarg · 09-21-2007, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncle Timmy

I agree. The hype is way over-done.

Last night they were hyping "The Disturbance along the Gulf Coast" (cue the ominous music). How lame, it's not even a Tropical Storm and they are still trying to wip up excitement.

Well, they got the "Disturbance" part right. I'm pretty disturbed.

Miss Kitty · 09-21-2007, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdarg

Well, they got the "Disturbance" part right. I'm pretty disturbed.

...that you are! P, L and L!

jdarg · 09-21-2007, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miss Kitty

...that you are! P, L and L!

I just noticed that The Weather Chammel is switching gears- now we are calling our little disturbance "drought relief" and making a big deal about that!!

Uncle Timmy · 09-21-2007, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 30A Skunkape

You know they are praying for a New Orleans event. Instant drama and ratings.

Hmm yes, but on the positive side -hotels in Nola are probably filling up as every TV anchorman and woman from around the globe flock to film Katrina Part Deux; only to witness what is inevitably going to be just a rainy weekend.

.....but those hotels need the business so alls well that ends wet.

Uncle Timmy · 09-21-2007, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdarg

Well, they got the "Disturbance" part right. I'm pretty disturbed.

Yes, but we all know your disturbance is clinical, not meteorological.

jdarg · 09-21-2007, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncle Timmy

Yes, but we all know your disturbance is clinical, not meteorological.

Depends on the day- sometimes it is both. Like today.

Beach Runner · 09-21-2007, 09:36 AM

They just said on TV that it is turning north rather than its former westerly track. We were gonna drive to the beach this weekend, but decided not -- the weather is gonna be wet and windy. Yuck!

beachmouse · 09-21-2007, 09:48 AM

Navy NRL is now identifying the blob as TD Ten. In all likliehood, we'll probably get a nice shiny NHC 10am advisory complete with tropical storm watch/warning areas.

NotDeadYet · 09-21-2007, 10:29 AM

Here it is, 10 a.m. tropical storm warning, even though NHC is calling it a subtropical depression:

[/IMG]

hnooe · 09-21-2007, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by savvytangerine

Turned over the weather channel and Jim Cantore (sp?) is in Pensacola!

I like the guy... but generally he seems to be in the center of the storm. I want rain, but I don't want rain that bad.

__________________________________________________ _____________
It is amazing how The Weather Channel has found it convenient to boost ratings by instilling fear and aprehension into everyone along the Gulf Coast. It has been a "non-event" huricane season so far in the U.S, and frankly, that is not really good business for the Weather Channel.

In actuality, the Weather Channel can do a service and a dis-service at the same time...

Thus, I am sure, is the reason for Jim Cantore's over dramatization (he should have gone into acting really) of a sub-tropical sytem that will BENEFIT the Gulf Coast with rain.

30A Skunkape · 09-21-2007, 05:57 PM

Looks like 'it' will come ashore tonight east of Mobile Bay. I for one have enjoyed the rain and light breeze.

DD · 09-21-2007, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncle Timmy

Yes, but we all know your disturbance is clinical, not meteorological.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdarg

Depends on the day- sometimes it is both. Like today.

jdarg · 09-21-2007, 09:06 PM

Not much dramatic storm action.

But a good rainy night for reading and sleeping!

DD · 09-21-2007, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jdarg

Not much dramatic storm action.

But a good rainy night for reading and sleeping!

NoHall · 09-21-2007, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

My knee predicts that you are going to get some hard fast rain tomorrow or Sunday.

You might want to check with your other knee. Forcast for same ol' nothin' here.

Smiling JOe · 09-22-2007, 06:26 AM

Looks like my knee was wrong about your town getting wet. There was a 50/50 chance of accuracy, as good as the weather man.

I'm not sure what happened to Invest 93. We had some wind whipping around last night. Might have some waves out there this morning, but I see only a very slightly wind in the tree tops right now.

Lady D · 09-22-2007, 06:38 AM

We have a chance of rain from it tomorrow unless the forecast has changed. We need it bad. Still 16 inches below normal for the year. Hoping for an increase in rain here during the fall and winter months so we can make up some of that rain deficit.

Beach Runner · 09-22-2007, 08:03 AM

A friend of ours who has a house on the west end of 30-A says he saw some beach erosion from the storm. Does anyone know if we got any erosion on the other end, say, on Seagrove Beach?

BeachSiO2 · 09-22-2007, 09:27 AM

I have heard that in most areas there was only minor beach erosion (if any) and no dune erosion or impacts to seawalls. Has anyone else heard or seen anything different?

Beach Runner · 09-22-2007, 09:47 AM

Thanks for the info. I'm coming down Tuesday -- I'll check out Seagrove then.

Lady D · 09-22-2007, 10:17 AM

Now they are showing rain for us mostly on Monday and Tuesday instead of Sunday. Sure hope we get it. We like getting the rain from the tropical systems. Bring it on.

NoHall · 09-22-2007, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smiling JOe

Looks like my knee was wrong about your town getting wet. There was a 50/50 chance of accuracy, as good as the weather man.

I'm not sure what happened to Invest 93. We had some wind whipping around last night. Might have some waves out there this morning, but I see only a very slightly wind in the tree tops right now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ladydebubba60

Now they are showing rain for us mostly on Monday and Tuesday instead of Sunday. Sure hope we get it. We like getting the rain from the tropical systems. Bring it on.

Nothin. We got more nothin, with more nothin in the forecast. It gets cloudy and humid, and refuses to rain.

jdarg · 09-22-2007, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeachSiO2

I have heard that in most areas there was only minor beach erosion (if any) and no dune erosion or impacts to seawalls. Has anyone else heard or seen anything different?

Our house is still standing.

TreeFrog · 09-22-2007, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beach Runner

A friend of ours who has a house on the west end of 30-A says he saw some beach erosion from the storm. Does anyone know if we got any erosion on the other end, say, on Seagrove Beach?

I went down to the beach at Seagrove this morning. Just the wind and rain filling in all the footprints, nothing else.