For the last three years, I’ve listened to many people talk about waiting until the real estate market hits bottom before they will purchase. We all know that the bottom is seen only in hindsight, but by watching the market closely and constantly, we can begin to see trends and changes in the market, which might alert us to shifts which we later recognize as peaks or troughs. The charts I created below are not intended to point out a bottom, because we won’t recognize a bottom until we are well off the bottom floor and it is behind us. However, if you look closely at the charts below, you will see a market shift over the last several months.
2009 vs 2008 South Walton Sales - Homes, Condos, Townhomes
I don’t want to throw too much historical data at you, but I will share a bit for context. Looking at the South Walton sales for Homes, Condos, and Townhomes, over the last several years, we see a common trend. Generally, we see an upward trend in sales from Jan through July of each year. Then, from August through December, we see sales decline.
Nashville Lifestyles magazine goes to South Walton. Click link above to learn more about Nashville Lifestyles. Pick up a copy of the September 2009 to read my most recent article.
Posted 08-21-2009 at 12:54 PM bymurray (Murray's Blog)
Let’s try something different in order to see a long term look at the market. In hind-sight, we all know that the market peaked back in 2005 and 2006. There was ample run-up, starting back in 2003, and we still saw decent results through 2008. In time, that period from 2003-2008 will be forgotten by many, as the numbers all blend in over time, when looking at historical averages. For the sake of discussion and thought, I want see where we fall on the historical line, if the bubble had not happened. Removing the sales from 2003-2008, we see a new perspective of a somewhat normal and stabile real estate market. We see a gradual, yet positive increase in median sales price, with a strong 2009.... (See attachment for full article and graphs.)
Pending Sales for July 2009 Increase 105% Comparing July 2009 to July 2008, pending sales increased 105%. Compared to June 2009, we were up 20%. In the “pending” status, we have seen monthly increases for the last five months, when comparing same months to 2008.
2009 Sales in South Walton Outpacing 2008 Ask a typical seller in today’s market why their property hasn’t sold and they are likely to tell you that there are no buyers. That is far from the truth. A more accurate answer may be that the property is priced too high. Combining sales of homes, condos and town homes through the end of July 2009, we have seen 12% more closed sales (number of transactions than in the same period in 2008. Total dollar volume for closed sales in these categories, through the end of July 2009, is $208,578,540. This figure is down about 13% compared the same period in 2008, but that is economics 101 — As sales price decreases, quantity of sales will increase accordingly.
Using median price as our rule of measure, it seems that new listings are coming on the market at higher prices than those properties which are going under contract and those which are selling. The listings which are expiring (unsold and coming off the market), also appear to be priced well beyond those which are selling. However, if you are seriously looking to purchase now, there are some properties...
