CNBC housing segment today @ 3:00pm

[bdc63]

There was just a teaser on CNBC for a segment that I thought some of you might be interested in ...

"How's your beach house? Still worth what you paid for it? Wait 'till you see what we found out. Today, on 'The Closing Bell'."

correction ... I believe it's 4:00pm ET

[imasunbum]

I missed it - did anybody catch? If so please share.

[spinDrAtl]

They also did a feature story this morning on the Today show regarding the 'bursting of the real estate bubble'. Usatoday.com runs an article every week or so highlighting a different area of the country where prices have come down.

If all the national news outlets are now making this one of their top stories, does that mean it's almost over??? Just a question, as usually these folks are the last to the party.

On the bright side, the 10 year treasury bond is at its lowest level in 4 months.

[Beachlover2]

I am not sure if I saw it or not - I got home for the last 15 minutes of the show and they were on other topics - but with like 3 minutes to go in the show they bring up second homes and how the market is dead there right now - but if you have a multi million dollar place - they are still selling. Mentioned a few celebrities that recently bought in the Hamptons and I think Naples area. That was all I saw. - Not much.

[bdc63]

I am not sure if I saw it or not - I got home for the last 15 minutes of the show and they were on other topics - but with like 3 minutes to go in the show they bring up second homes and how the market is dead there right now - but if you have a multi million dollar place - they are still selling. Mentioned a few celebrities that recently bought in the Hamptons and I think Naples area. That was all I saw. - Not much.

Yep, that was it. No new news. To SpinDrAtl's point, it almost seemed like out-of-date information with newsbreaks like 'inventories are up 50% over last year'.

[beerman]

I was thinking the same thing, in fact, have been kind of thinking that recently when reports come out that real estate is slowing down. Certainly the real estate slowdown that so many here are familiar with had to make headlines sometime. I think that its having done so is just another step that had to be taken. I, for one, am glad to hear that it's on the news. I wish the story would really take off and dominate the news for a while. Then, maybe, we could get somewhere.

[SHELLY]

If all the national news outlets are now making this one of their top stories, does that mean it's almost over??? Just a question, as usually these folks are the last to the party.


Almost over? No, it's just at the very beginning. Front page stories about the sales down and inventories up will be followed by stories of double-digit price declines, more broken contracts, foreclosures, some perp walks for appraisers, developers and others in the industry, etc., etc. And when the dust settles, don't expect a return to the hot RE markets experienced in the last couple of years--that won't happen again for a couple of generations. <IMO ;-) > (Think Tech Bubble--but in slow motion and more far-reaching)

[30A Skunkape]

Almost over? No, it's just at the very beginning. Front page stories about the sales down and inventories up will be followed by stories of double-digit price declines, more broken contracts, foreclosures, some perp walks for appraisers, developers and others in the industry, etc., etc. And when the dust settles, don't expect a return to the hot RE markets experienced in the last couple of years--that won't happen again for a couple of generations. <IMO ;-) > (Think Tech Bubble--but in slow motion and more far-reaching)


So do you think that I might be able to swoop in and get a good deal in say 2007-2008? That is my plan anyway.:idontno:

[spinDrAtl]

Almost over? No, it's just at the very beginning. Front page stories about the sales down and inventories up will be followed by stories of double-digit price declines, more broken contracts, foreclosures, some perp walks for appraisers, developers and others in the industry, etc., etc. And when the dust settles, don't expect a return to the hot RE markets experienced in the last couple of years--that won't happen again for a couple of generations. <IMO ;-) > (Think Tech Bubble--but in slow motion and more far-reaching)

I don't necessarily think it's almost over - I just threw that out as a point for discussion because in the past, these issues become headline and lead story news well into their life cycles. I think you are a little behind as well. There are already front page stories about sales down and inventories up. There are already stories of double digit declines (see my point about usatoday above). There are already stories of broken contracts and foreclosures (not to mention projects that are not going to get off the ground now). No perp walks yet, however.

I humbly disagree with your assessment of hot RE markets every couple generations. Perhaps the 100% increases in a year type market but in general terms, RE booms and busts tend to run in the 15-20 year range, not a couple generations.

[dsilvar]

So do you think that I might be able to swoop in and get a good deal in say 2007-2008? That is my plan anyway.:idontno:
Almost over? No, it's just at the very beginning. Don't expect a return to the hot RE markets experienced in the last couple of years--that won't happen again for a couple of generations.
Compliments of Shelly's crystal ball...
That means you could have your grand kids also cash in on the cold RE market.:clap_1:

[SHELLY]

I think you are a little behind as well. There are already front page stories about sales down and inventories up. There are already stories of double digit declines (see my point about usatoday above). There are already stories of broken contracts and foreclosures (not to mention projects that are not going to get off the ground now). No perp walks yet, however.


The papers have been woefully slow at reporting and are lagging indicators of what's really happening out on the street. While it is true we are now just starting to see front page stories in the publications like the WSJ and NYT, they are usually only about the sagging sales and the soaring inventories--and most always contain a "feel good" quote from a hired gun at the NAR stating "Now is the best time to buy....it's a buyer's market!" (Which has been said every month on cue for the past year). Other stories about the bust have been tucked away in the Personal Finance, Marketplace or Real Estate sections.

This thing has just only begun to unwind. Stories are starting to come to light about shoddy construction of houses and condos thrown up during the boom. Projects being cancelled, developers filing for bankruptcy, layoffs, fraud and collusion--still not front page news.

H&R Block just announced it will take a charge of $61.3 million to reflect an increase in the number of its subprime mortgage customers falling behind on their loan payments. If this doesn't make a headline in the WSJ's Saturday edition, we're still not at the starting point just yet.

[SHELLY]

Compliments of Shelly's crystal ball...
That means you could have your grand kids also cash in on the cold RE market.:clap_1:

The grandkids will need the money to buy $29.95 Value Meals at McDonalds, pay $1500 per month cellphone bills and pay for their medicine and retirement (since Medicare is history and they haven't saved a dime in their 401K).

[SHELLY]

So do you think that I might be able to swoop in and get a good deal in say 2007-2008? That is my plan anyway.:idontno:

What's your definition of a "good deal?"

[SHELLY]

On the bright side, the 10 year treasury bond is at its lowest level in 4 months.

And why is this good news?

[Paradise Sea]

And when the dust settles, don't expect a return to the hot RE markets experienced in the last couple of years--that won't happen again for a couple of generations. <IMO ;-) > (Think Tech Bubble--but in slow motion and more far-reaching)

A couple of generations?! Really?! I guess my grandfather shouldn't have bought all that land on the coast of FL during the depression! And here I always thought he was a visionary!

[SHELLY]

A couple of generations?! Really?! I guess my grandfather shouldn't have bought all that land on the coast of FL during the depression! And here I always thought he was a visionary!

And if we go into another Depression and you scoop up all the Florida land you can buy for your grandchildren, they'll think you're a visionary too--unless of course they say, "Why the hell did grandpappy sink all his money into a place lined with concrete seawalls and oil globs all over the beach?"

[30A Skunkape]

Shelly, my definition of a good deal is a house I like at a note I can tote-isn't that a novel concept?!:clap_1:

[Paradise Sea]

And if we go into another Depression and you scoop up all the Florida land you can buy for your grandchildren, they'll think you're a visionary too--unless of course they say, "Why the hell did grandpappy sink all his money into a place lined with concrete seawalls and oil globs all over the beach?"

Shelly,

Over the past year I have generally agree with your analysis of the real estate market and admit that you were correct in predicting the problems that have occurred. I just think it's unfortunate that you never seem to write a positive thought on this forum, and even worse, you can't seem to tolerate anyone else that does.

Barring absolute economic and/or environmental disaster on a scale never before seen by man, land purchased on the coast of FL now will be incredibly precious in 40 years (2 generations). I realize that there are those who truly believe that economic and/or environmental disasters are inevitable. For example, the communists thought democracy and capitalism would ultimately collaspe in disaster. Funny how that worked out, huh? I just happen to believe that humanity will find solutions to our problems and ultimately implement them in ways that work. I'm scared sometimes but I do believe in our desire to survive in a world that is better for ourselves and our children.

We always need bell ringers to sound the alarm, but frankly, your 2 generations statement came off sounding like the homeless man on the street yelling "Repent! the end is near!". Even if you're right, you sound crazy and are therefore ineffective in making your point. It's simply tiring to keep reading your predictably negative opinions. We all know you believe the opposite of ANYTHING positive posted on this forum. What I would like to read is your insight into how you think we can fix the problems we face now and in the future. Convince me you are more than just gloom and doom.

[nmosley]

Dear Shelley -
Ok, This is my first post ever - not even sure if I am doing it correctly, but I totally agree with Paradise Sea on this one. I have been reading these posts for months now and taking in all of the opinions. Shelley, though you may be correct now and again, your pessimism diminishes most of the value of your comments. I am not trying to belittle you, rather, I am just agreeing that if you have a point, and you seem to have many, they can be made without the sarcastic edge - just as readily. That would allow those of us who enjoy your insights to be able to appreciate them without the discounting applied because of the ongoing doom. Just some feedback...remember all feedback is good... Now I am going back in my shell to hide and watch! By the way, all of this Real estate stuff may be moot anyway if the bird flu or scalar weaponry warfare ever begins - not to mention the weather control underway at the HAARP center in Alaska (now that is real doom and gloom for you guys). Have an excellent weekend :roll:

[nmosley]

Dear Shelly -
I am sorry for misspelling your name...:(

[nmosley]

By the way, does anyone know how I easily can change my by line from Beach Crab to something nicer - like maybe Sunset Seeker?

[pgurney]

By the way, does anyone know how I easily can change my by line from Beach Crab to something nicer - like maybe Sunset Seeker?
:welcome:
Post a lot. I believe the tag is tied to number of posts.

[SHELLY]

Convince me you are more than just gloom and doom.

What can we do to fix everything? Stop the greed, then everything will fall into place. Easy...no?

Because I've lived in the panhandle for decades my viewpoint of "local beauty" is far different from that of newcomers. If someone had told me in the 70's Hwy 98 would be choked with traffic; condos, houses and seawalls would line the beaches; access to the beaches would be cut off by private developments; and the regular Joe couldn't find an affordable place to live; I would have told them they were out of their mind too! (And that was less than 40 years ago!)

And because I follow the economy of the US, I know we are not in a very good place--and eventually the economy is going to have to flush itself, and it's not going to be pretty for the unprepared. For those who want ignore the warnings, who cares? Keep spending borrowed money like there is no tomorrow. But like they say in the biz, "During recessions money is returned to its rightful owner."

There are plenty of Pollyannas on the forum...I don't mind playing the :twisted:'s advocate.

Just like I may seem like the person who stands on the corner and shouts "Repent, the end is near"...I view those who keep trying to reform my way of thinking like a Jehovah Witness who incessantly pound on the door trying to get me to change my ways. :D ....it's not gonna happen.

[SHELLY]

Shelly, my definition of a good deal is a house I like at a note I can tote-isn't that a novel concept?!:clap_1:

You're right, that's certainly out of the ordinary in this day and age.

Lots of people will soon start to realize that real estate isn't an "everyman's" investment. If you've already got your primary residence and retirement portfolio secured, and have some extra money laying around collecting dust, it's much better to invest your money in buying "experiences" instead of "things."

[dsilvar]

Lots of people will soon start to realize that real estate isn't an "everyman's" investment. If you've already got your primary residence and retirement portfolio secured, and have some extra money laying around collecting dust, it's much better to invest your money in buying "experiences" instead of "things."
I HATE YOU SHELLY>>HATE YOU!!...Just when I think I'm sure your nuts, you make a loaded statement like that..invest in experiences rather than things...man thats worth smoking a doob to contemplate.
But thats were my heads at, Shel. We/I have decided that we will not persue money anymore!! thats a friggin relief..liberating. However we have also reached zero debt this year and have home and retirement cash flow in place.
So next year we will travel around the world for a year..to experience life.
One world alliance allows you to book a 6 continent/20 flight around the world trip at a good price, and take a year to do it!
Yer a sage, Shel..a veritable sage!!
Anyway wish me bon voyage.

[SHELLY]

Anyway wish me bon voyage.

Bon Voyage :D

[redfisher]

I'm just curious Shelly, what business are you in?...Why don't you explain to us why the 10yr yield coming down is bad?...Wow me...

P.S...I love greed...

[SHELLY]

I'm just curious Shelly, what business are you in?...Why don't you explain to us why the 10yr yield coming down is bad?...Wow me...

P.S...I love greed...

LESSON #1: The Yield Curve (http://money.cnn.com/popups/2005/news/yield_curve/frameset.exclude.html)

[redfisher]

what EXACTLY does that mean?...and again, what buz are you in?...

[SHELLY]

what EXACTLY does that mean?...

LESSON #2: The US government gets it money by taxing its citizens and businesses or by borrowing money from people who have money to lend.

Since the government likes to spend lots and lots of money, but doesn't want to hurt people's feelings by making them pay taxes, it must borrow money by issuing treasuries (bills, bonds, notes) and since no one is going to give the US government money for free the government must pay interest.

You would think that when someone lends you money, they would demand a higher interest rate if they weren't going to get their principle back for 10 years than if they were going to get it back in only 2 years. And if the economy were "normal" that would result in a "yield curve" that sloped upward (say an interest rate of 4% for 2 years and 4.5% for 10 years). Banks use this "spread" to profit by paying savings accounts 4% and making long-term loans for 4.5% and keeping the 0.5% as profit. Sub-prime mortgage lenders were making money hand-over-fist when they borrowed money when interest rates were down to 1% and lent it out at 12%.

But I digress. Currently the twos-and-tens yield curve is "inverted" meaning people are demanding a higher interest rate for 2-year notes (and shorter term products) than they are demanding for 10-year treasuries...why do you think that is happening? Why would you lend your money to someone for 10 years at a cheaper rate than lending it for only 2 years? :confused: I'll let you think about that for a while.

[GaltsGulch]

The degree to which people are upset at Shelly is directly proportional to the degree to which they are "up to eyeballs" in southwalton real estate, one way or another. No one likes to hear the viewpoint again and again, when they feel that her/his words are pushing values down further.. Her/His words are doing absolutely nothing to real estatevalues... market forces are at work...

remember always: don't follow the market down.... price aggressively now, and avoid the inevitable retracement to reality. Obviously this doesn't apply to those so wealthy they could care less whether the value on their 3rd row beach home goes from 500K to 1.4M, back to 500K... If that doesn't describe your situation, we're now in a situation where you need to price aggressively, before the majority needs to price aggressively... these people need to listen to Shelley's advice not to follow the market down, rather than wishfully agreeing with the majority on this board - who I continue to believe have a 'vested' interest in either transactions, or valuations. It's a beautiful place, no question, but my point (ever since I sold in early spring 2005) has been and continues to be the rents are way out of line (dirt cheap) vs. ridiculously rising cost of ownership.

[Paradise Sea]

LESSON #2: ...why do you think that is happening? Why would you lend your money to someone for 10 years at a cheaper rate than lending it for only 2 years? :confused: I'll let you think about that for a while.

Wow!, thanks for the lessons Shelly, you are so smart. I'm waiting with eager anticipation for the answer. Can't wait for Lesson #3. You know it all. You are just so amazing! We "newcomers" sure lucky you are here to guide us. My 30 years as property owner and investor on 30-A pale in comparison to your wisdom!

(Just whistling...) Can't get enough of that doom and gloom, doom and gloom, doom and gloom, can't get enough of that doom and gloom early in the morning...:floor:

[Bobby J]

:popcorn: This is a really good thread. I have always made money by following my gut. I never really analyze or worry about it. I could never look at anything the way Shelley does. Nothing personal Shelley but I would have to lock myself away if I had all that info. I guess that is what makes the world go round. Your comments make you appear to be happy about others misfortune... I find that odd and probably a good thing you remain anonymous.

[redfisher]

LESSON #2:
But I digress. Currently the twos-and-tens yield curve is "inverted" meaning people are demanding a higher interest rate for 2-year notes (and shorter term products) than they are demanding for 10-year treasuries...why do you think that is happening? Why would you lend your money to someone for 10 years at a cheaper rate than lending it for only 2 years? :confused: I'll let you think about that for a while.


This is long-winded and doesn't answer my question..."What exactly does it mean"..."Why is it inverted"..."What do lower rates mean" ...and finally "What biz are you in?

[Sandcastle]

LESSON #2:Currently the twos-and-tens yield curve is "inverted" meaning people are demanding a higher interest rate for 2-year notes (and shorter term products) than they are demanding for 10-year treasuries...why do you think that is happening? Why would you lend your money to someone for 10 years at a cheaper rate than lending it for only 2 years? :confused: I'll let you think about that for a while.

Couldn't this simply mean that people are expecting inflation to slow? Maybe locking in a slightly lower rate for 10 years is better than receiving a higher rate for short-term money and waking up one day to find that your bond has matured and you interest income has disappeared.:idontno:

[SHELLY]

LESSON #3: Inverted Yield Curve (Condensed :confused: )

An inverted yield curve is usually a sign that the market sees an economic slowdown looming...and in times past, this situation presaged a recession (except when the Fed created asset bubbles to ward it off).

Folks who think the Fed is going to lower interest rates to fight a recession rush to "lock in" long-term interest rates by buying (in this case) 10-year treasuries sending the yields lower. The bond's price and the yield are inversely related, so when folks "demand" more bonds, the price goes up and the yield goes down (or if they rush to unload them, the price goes down and the yield goes up -- same situation as stock prices and their dividends). Hold this thought for now.

This situation worked pretty well in the past, but here is the rub. Foreign countries are holding over $2.4 Trillion in US debt. The foreigners are feeding the US money so we can buy their oil to put in our SUVs, their plasma TVs and their plastic junk from the Dollar Trees. We take out HELOCs or use credit cards to buy their stuff, and most all of the money finds it way to Japan and China (the #1 & #2 holders of our debt) so they can pass it back to the US in return for treasuries where it ends up in banks for us to borrow so we can continue to buy their junk. Swell! But can you see the downside? Neither can the people who are in debt up to their eyeballs. And too much money chasing too few goods causes inflation--for those too young to know what this feels like, let's just say it blows!

The Fed would normally slow down the economy by increasing discount rates (the rates banks charge each other for overnight loans) which usually moves the prime lending rates higher. They want the citizens to stop spending like maniacs and put something into savings. Raising the rates is supposed to raise the long-term rates in tandem and make putting money into savings an attractive option. Unfortunately for Greenspan, it didn't work this time--he raised the rates in "measured" paces and too slowly so as not to upset the economy. The short-term rates increased, but the long-term rates held fast (the famous conundrum). Underestimating the greed of the nation, he kept going and going...people kept spending and spending. When mortgage rates got a little too high in one type of loan, they came up with other "exotic loans" to make the ever-increasing housing prices affordable to all the masses--"Don't worry about that 1-year ARM, you'll have this condo sold in the blink of an eye and have $50,000 profit with no risk at all--just sign here. GREAT! Psst...we've got another tower going up, how about a preconstruction--just take out an equity loan on your primary residence, you won't need to worry about a mortgage, when it's finished people will be lined up to throw money at you to take it off your hands....sign here."

Now the short-term yields are higher than the long-term yields (and the yield curve is inverted), foreigners are still buying up the US debt because they've got tons of US money laying around collecting dust to lend and 4%+ which is a pretty good deal. BUT...there is a problem, the housing market is toast and the businesses aren't picking up the economic slack like they were supposed to do. Corporations are FLUSH with cash from the economic boom, but instead of buying all sorts of capital goods and opening up new businesses to keep the economy humming along, they're using the cash to buy up their stocks, raising CEOs compensation and paying SEC fines. The market smells economic hard times are ahead--maybe a recession. The world is a troubled place and there is a flight to quality (read 10-year treasuries). At the same time, other central banks around the world are also starting to raise their interest rates as well.

What is the FED to do if there is a recession? Most people think that they'll ride to the rescue, as in the past, and lower interest rates and start the machine back up again. Now there is a problem though...globalization has happened. Foreign countries hold a good deal of their reserves in US dollars (our debt) and if they think the US is going to start dropping interest rates (which will cause their investments in US dollars to lose value) they will seriously consider diversifying out of US dollars and into other currencies (that pay higher interest) and/or into gold.

The US doesn't want them to do this, because if the likes of China starts "cashing in" its $639 Billion in US treasuries, the supply flooding the market will outstrip demand. And if we can't sell our future debt (which we use to pay off our current debt) we will be in worse shape...folks will demand ever higher yields which the US will be forced to pay or risk a default of US treasuries.:eek:

Now, do you remember the part of the lesson from above about the inverse relationship between the price and yield of bonds?--if China floods the markets with a slew of treasuries that outstrip demand...bond prices will drop like a rock, causing yields will soar (that inverse relationship) and the cost of borrowing money will skyrocket. If no one wants to buy our US debt because they can get better interest elsewhere, we've gotta raise the interest rates high enough to attract investors away from other bonds which will also cause the cost of borrowing money to skyrocket. So this is why the FED needs to walk a tightrope when considering lowering the interest rates again in the future. It's very different this time.

If people think "oh goody" the interest rates are dropping, so mortgage rates will drop and the real estate market will come roaring back bigger and better than ever...I'm here to say that it just isn't that easy. (IMO)

[goofer44]

SHELLY
You reduce your explanations to very simplistic and outdated economic logic. you are a big proponent of supply and demand.......think about that.

[goofer44]

:popcorn: This is a really good thread. I have always made money by following my gut. I never really analyze or worry about it. I could never look at anything the way Shelley does. Nothing personal Shelley but I would have to lock myself away if I had all that info. I guess that is what makes the world go round. Your comments make you appear to be happy about others misfortune... I find that odd and probably a good thing you remain anonymous.

That about sums it up Shell.....Schandenfreud.......remember ????

[SHELLY]

SHELLY
You reduce your explanations to very simplistic and outdated economic logic. you are a big proponent of supply and demand.......think about that.


Lots of slick folks with stuff to sell make money off of people who only know one side of the economic story (that being the side the seller wants them to hear).

The slick folks make the money, and those who are clueless in the ways of supply/demand and fundamentals end up betting their retirement on tech stocks and "dot condos" ...think about that.

[redfisher]

I love it...which one are you? are you slick or uninformed?...I'm just now reading your "Lesson 3" - boy its sure concise - back in a few...Red

[redfisher]

Originally Posted by SHELLY
LESSON #3: Inverted Yield Curve (Condensed )

Sorry for the long post folks, I usually hate these...


Folks who think the Fed is going to lower interest rates to fight a recession rush to "lock in" long-term interest rates by buying (in this case) 10-year treasuries sending the yields lower. The bond's price and the yield are inversely related, so when folks "demand" more bonds, the price goes up and the yield goes down (or if they rush to unload them, the price goes down and the yield goes up -- same situation as stock prices and their dividends). Hold this thought for now.

Who are "folks" and why are they rushing to buy bonds...Hint, its not to lock in yield...Identify "folks" and then you'll know why they buy...Addl'ly, are you really suggesting that bond yields somehow interact similiarly to divs?..

This situation worked pretty well in the past, but here is the rub.

Why did it work well?...Because if it worked, you loose the majority of your "Greenspan's an idiot" argument...

Foreign countries are holding over $2.4 Trillion in US debt. The foreigners are feeding the US money so we can buy their oil to put in our SUVs, their plasma TVs and their plastic junk from the Dollar Trees. We take out HELOCs or use credit cards to buy their stuff, and most all of the money finds it way to Japan and China (the #1 & #2 holders of our debt) so they can pass it back to the US in return for treasuries where it ends up in banks for us to borrow

Wrong, Japan and China do it because their own debt situation is so bad they can't put that much money into their own system...

They want the citizens to stop spending like maniacs and put something into savings. Raising the rates is supposed to raise the long-term rates in tandem and make putting money into savings an attractive option.

This stmt is just false...

Underestimating the greed of the nation, he kept going and going...people kept spending and spending. When mortgage rates got a little too high in one type of loan, they came up with other "exotic loans" to make the ever-increasing housing prices affordable to all the masses--"Don't worry about that 1-year ARM, you'll have this condo sold in the blink of an eye and have $50,000 profit with no risk at all--just sign here. GREAT! Psst...we've got another tower going up, how about a preconstruction--just take out an equity loan on your primary residence, you won't need to worry about a mortgage, when it's finished people will be lined up to throw money at you to take it off your hands....sign here."

This is just class envy...

Now the short-term yields are higher than the long-term yields (and the yield curve is inverted),

When was the last time the curve was inverted and by how much?

foreigners are still buying up the US debt because they've got tons of US money laying around collecting dust to lend and 4%+ which is a pretty good deal.

What is the current debt sit. in China...What % is Chinese bad debt to GDP?...Now why do they buy?...see above

businesses aren't picking up the economic slack like they were supposed to do. Corporations are FLUSH with cash from the economic boom, but instead of buying all sorts of capital goods and opening up new businesses to keep the economy humming along, they're using the cash to buy up their stocks, raising CEOs compensation and paying SEC fines.

Wrong again;
Ind. Production stands @ 4.9% yoy as of 8/16/06...Capacity use @ 82.4%-same date-Factory order are 8% yoy as of 8/24/06...Inventory to sales ratios lowest ever...

What % of publicly traded companies paid SEC fines and Boards of Directors approve pay packages...Thereby what % of Boards have been prosecuted for CEO comp?

The world is a troubled place and there is a flight to quality...why?

(At the same time, other central banks around the world are also starting to raise their interest rates as well.

Have been for awhile, whats different now?...

What is the FED to do if there is a recession? Most people think that they'll ride to the rescue, as in the past, and lower interest rates and start the machine back up again.

You stated that this strategy works...

Now there is a problem though...globalization has happened. Foreign countries hold a good deal of their reserves in US dollars (our debt) and if they think the US is going to start dropping interest rates (which will cause their investments in US dollars to lose value)

This stmt. rides contrary to your little lesson of price/yield inversion

they will seriously consider diversifying out of US dollars and into other currencies (that pay higher interest) and/or into gold.

Why didn't they do it in '94, '98, '00...

Now, do you remember the part of the lesson from above about the inverse relationship between the price and yield of bonds?--if China floods the markets with a slew of treasuries that outstrip demand...bond prices will drop like a rock, causing yields will soar (that inverse relationship) and the cost of borrowing money will skyrocket.

What will happen to the redeeming country's currency if this happens...Why haven't they done it...see above

If people think "oh goody" the interest rates are dropping, so mortgage rates will drop and the real estate market will come roaring back bigger and better than ever...I'm here to say that it just isn't that easy. (IMO)

By the way, What biz are you in?...I hope it ain't economics... :wub:

[goofer44]

Lots of slick folks with stuff to sell make money off of people who only know one side of the economic story (that being the side the seller wants them to hear).

The slick folks make the money, and those who are clueless in the ways of supply/demand and fundamentals end up betting their retirement on tech stocks and "dot condos" ...think about that.

That is the downside of capitalism. Caveat emptor. Perhaps if people educated themselves and would you use common sense in understanding relative value, they would not get themselves into a pickle. Greed and stupidity have gone hand in hand in the tech wreck and housing bubble. The high schools should be teaching teens basic economics and personal money management skills. If they had been doing so 20 years ago perhaps many people would not find themselves in the present dilemna. Losing money is always a great life lesson.....if you learn from the experience. Believe me, I have had many such lessons in my life but I think I ultimately profited from those experiences......I call it paying tuition in the game of life.

[SHELLY]

By the way, What biz are you in?...I hope it ain't economics... :wub:


Incredible! (http://veepers.americangreetings.com/service/?timestamp=1156707779&referrer=audio&s0=SaveTTSInfo&s0p1=url&s0v1=/media/06082712/X5W3gRZ5ax/efe1cbe1a1cd3f920d121341bf23d72d.jar&s0p2=txt&s0v2=I%27m%20really%20blown%20away%20at%20your%20g rasp%20of%20Economics%21%20%20&s0p3=vox&s0v3=en_us_m_002&s0p4=lc&s0v4=t&s1=ConvertTextToSpeechForVeeper&s1p1=voice_name&s1v1=en_us_m_002&s1p2=text_to_speak&s1v2=Your%20grasp%20of%20economics%20leaves%20me%2 0speechless.%20%20I%27m%20certainly%20glad%20there %20are%20folks%20out%20there%20who%20think%20the%2 0way%20you%20do--after%20all%20there%20needs%20to%20be%20two%20side s%20to%20each%20trade.&s1p3=appended_text&s1v3=&s2=ShowPage&s2p1=page&s2v1=audio&s2p2=on_error&s2v2=audio)

[redfisher]

nothing happened grasshopper...I sifted thru the code and there's something about sides of the story...I don't get it meat....

[SHELLY]

[QUOTE=redfisher]nothing happened grasshopper...I sifted thru the code and there's something about sides of the story...I don't get it meat....[QUOTE]

Is there a secret decoder ring to go along with this message?

[redfisher]

:idontno:

[spinDrAtl]

And why is this good news?

It is good news because actual buyers (end users) who are purchasing homes to live in are able to obtain better long term fixed rates.

[spinDrAtl]

Shelly,

Over the past year I have generally agree with your analysis of the real estate market and admit that you were correct in predicting the problems that have occurred. I just think it's unfortunate that you never seem to write a positive thought on this forum, and even worse, you can't seem to tolerate anyone else that does.

Barring absolute economic and/or environmental disaster on a scale never before seen by man, land purchased on the coast of FL now will be incredibly precious in 40 years (2 generations). I realize that there are those who truly believe that economic and/or environmental disasters are inevitable. For example, the communists thought democracy and capitalism would ultimately collaspe in disaster. Funny how that worked out, huh? I just happen to believe that humanity will find solutions to our problems and ultimately implement them in ways that work. I'm scared sometimes but I do believe in our desire to survive in a world that is better for ourselves and our children.

We always need bell ringers to sound the alarm, but frankly, your 2 generations statement came off sounding like the homeless man on the street yelling "Repent! the end is near!". Even if you're right, you sound crazy and are therefore ineffective in making your point. It's simply tiring to keep reading your predictably negative opinions. We all know you believe the opposite of ANYTHING positive posted on this forum. What I would like to read is your insight into how you think we can fix the problems we face now and in the future. Convince me you are more than just gloom and doom.

I think you are being quite generous using ONLY 40 years as Shelly's two generations. :)

[SHELLY]

It is good news because actual buyers (end users) who are purchasing homes to live in are able to obtain better long term fixed rates.

That's very true and in that case (end users) it is better news--although the home sale prices are still way too high at this point to draw much interest.

But what lots are folks are thinking is that these lower rates will send investulators clammering back into the market--the people who drove the RE boom in the first place. Investulators don't use long-term fixed rates.

[spinDrAtl]

That's very true and in that case (end users) it is better news--although the home sale prices are still way too high at this point to draw much interest.

But what lots are folks are thinking is that these lower rates will send investulators clammering back into the market--the people who drove the RE boom in the first place. Investulators don't use long-term fixed rates.

Home sales are not way too high to draw interest. If you are talking about sowal, maybe so - I am not as familiar with the market there for end user housing. But people all over the country are buying homes to live in - people change jobs, cities, etc. everyday and those that are homeowner's typically do not go back to renting while they ponder the fact that prices have gone up.

You asked me why I thought it was good news. I told you. I said nothing about rates bringing the investulators back into the market or investulators using long term rates. A simple statement regarding it being good for end users. And of course, after I answer your question, you toss in the typical generalization about 'what lots of folks are thinking'. I think you just feel the need to use the term 'investulators' in every post you make.

[SHELLY]

They also did a feature story this morning on the Today show regarding the 'bursting of the real estate bubble'. Usatoday.com runs an article every week or so highlighting a different area of the country where prices have come down.

If all the national news outlets are now making this one of their top stories, does that mean it's almost over??? Just a question, as usually these folks are the last to the party.

On the bright side, the 10 year treasury bond is at its lowest level in 4 months.

Just connected the dots from your post above...thought your comment on the 10-year was tied to your comment on the "bursting of the bubble." (Which was driven by investu....ah, investors and speculators in the first place.)

[spinDrAtl]

Just connected the dots from your post above...thought your comment on the 10-year was tied to your comment on the "bursting of the bubble." (Which was driven by investu....ah, investors and speculators in the first place.)

Nope, not tied together. I stated in a subsequent post to the first one that I did not necessarily think it was over - that I tossed it out for discussion based on the fact that when shows such as 'Today' are headlining it, they are behind the curve normally.

Then I subsequently answered your direct question regarding the 10 year bond. In fact, even investors (long term) typically like fixed rate mortgages.

I don't see where any dots needed connected.

[SHELLY]

Home sales are not way too high to draw interest.

The "demand" for homes is high...no doubt about it.

If the "demand" is high, and mortgage interest rates are at "near record lows," the economy is humming, the unemployment rate is way low, and wages are increasing (according to well-paid government frontmen) how do you explain the inventory glut of homes for sale that is sweeping the nation?

Simple: The demand for "overpriced homes" is in the basement.

As an interesting sidenote, according to the NY TIMES, (http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/interest_only_mortgages.png) in 2003, 32% of mortgages initiated in Atlanta were "interest only mortgages"....some were investors, but many were people who couldn't afford the home in the first place--so a 30-year fixed (or even 40-year fixed) will not be an option.

[Beachbummett]

SHELLY-WHAT DO YOU DO FOR A LIVING. (Yes, I am yelling) I thought you might be hard of hearing:biggrin: since you never answered the above questions about what you do for a living. If retired what did you used to do for a living?

[SHELLY]

SHELLY-WHAT DO YOU DO FOR A LIVING. (Yes, I am yelling) I thought you might be hard of hearing:biggrin: since you never answered the above questions about what you do for a living. If retired what you used to do for a living?

What do you think?

and....Why does it matter?

[destinsm]

The following graph which depicts inflation-adjusted home values for the last 100+ years is telling:
http://tinyurl.com/e4so5 (http://tinyurl.com/e4so5)

:shock:

[John]

What do you think?

and....Why does it matter?


I think it matters greatly because one's point of view is shaped by life experiences. You often have strong opinions and I think your work experience and education could support your position (or not).

[Beachbummett]

I have no idea what you do for a living, would not begin to guess.
I am just curious. Might help us know where your perspective comes from.

I agree with some of the things you post. I also think you sometimes have a good sense of humor, you are not a total gloom and doom person, just most of the time.

Curious as to what you think about someone that has several pieces of property down on 30-A that are paid for, no mortgages, and each one rents for enough to pay their taxes & insurance. Bought several years ago (1999 to 2002) for long term investments (think retirement age) we are in our 40's. What else would you do with the money if you sold it all?

[bdc63]

The following graph which depicts inflation-adjusted home values for the last 100+ years is telling:
http://tinyurl.com/e4so5 (http://tinyurl.com/e4so5)

:shock:

telling indeed. yikes. (thanks for sharing)

[Beachbummett]

Curious as to what you think about someone that has several pieces of property down on 30-A that are paid for, no mortgages, and each one rents for enough to pay their taxes & insurance. Bought several years ago (1999 to 2002) for long term investments (think retirement age) we are in our 40's. What else would you do with the money if you sold it all?[/QUOTE]

and no we are not only invested in the real estate there. We have a well rounded portfolio. I don't like the stock market just curious as to what else would be a good investment in this market.

[Indigo Jill]

I usually am not one to get involved but I do have to say I don't understand why everyone picks on SHELLY? His/her opinion is just that - an opinion. He/She can't make you feel angry, frustrated or anything negative - it's we ourselves that allow ourselves to feel what we feel. How people respond to things tells me more about them than what they say. And why in heavens name does it matter what SHELLY does?? If you feel confidant that your position is solid on a given topic, it shouldn't matter if someone agrees or disagrees with you. Voice your viewpoint, let the other guy/gal voice their viewpoint and see if there is any enlightment in the discussion. If not, toss it aside.

I just think everyone is entitled to their opinion and I don't think it's fair or right to pick on someone because their opinion goes against the grain. I personally like the wide range of thoughts and opinions here. It makes for great reading and discussion. I'm not defending SHELLY, I'm defending the process of information exchange. One thing I would like to know, though, about SHELLY - are you a girl or boy? I hate having to say he/she, him/her, etc

I will step down now...thank you. :biggrin:

[SHELLY]

I
Curious as to what you think about someone that has several pieces of property down on 30-A that are paid for, no mortgages, and each one rents for enough to pay their taxes & insurance. Bought several years ago (1999 to 2002) for long term investments (think retirement age) we are in our 40's. What else would you do with the money if you sold it all?

BB,

If anyone told you "what to do" with your money from just the info you've given on a blog, I'd say they are a cad, a thief, a fraud, or a combination of all three.

Every single individual has different needs, wants and wishes. If you are sure your family's future and retirement is "airtight" finance-wise; if you've seen all the world you care to see; and have all the education you'd care to achieve....there's nothing wrong with taking the Buffett/Gates route and start spreading the wealth around.

Go Christmas shopping for lots of toys and drop them off at an orphanage; buy a bunch of food and drop it off at food bank; stop by a ragged old church and ask the pastor about the needs of one of it's members (an old lady who can't afford new glasses or a kid wearing shoes that are 2 sizes too small) and offer to pay; donate your time and some materials to Habitat; or make a donation to St Jude for kids with cancer.

Your RE portfolio is probably the envy of lots of readers...I kind of get the impression from your post that you're growing weary of landlordship and wanting a change of pace. I hope you find what you're looking for.

(PS: What do I do? Well, I'll narrow it down for you. I'm neither a priest nor a Victoria Secret Lingerie Model)

[SHELLY]

I think it matters greatly because one's point of view is shaped by life experiences. You often have strong opinions and I think your work experience and education could support your position (or not).

But couldn't I just say that I was a former hot-shot, but burnt-out, Wall Street broker; Secret Agent for the CIA; high school cheerleader messing with Dad's computer; retired member of the Federal Reserve; Powerball winner; Waffle House chef; personal banker or Walmart greeter? :idontno:

This board is nothing more than an exchange of ideas (some better than others ;-) ). I just throw stuff out there....it's up to you to decide whether it makes sense or not.

[Beachbummett]

BB,

(PS: What do I do? Well, I'll narrow it down for you. I'm neither a priest nor a Victoria Secret Lingerie Model)

You mean you can't be both?!:idontno:

[Beachbummett]

[QUOTE=SHELLY;142585]BB,

If anyone told you "what to do" with your money from just the info you've given on a blog, I'd say they are a cad, a thief, a fraud, or a combination of all three.

I am not asking anyone what to do with my money, didn't get here by listening to most people. People that try to tell you what to do with your money have a vested interest most of the time.

I am just curious as to what you might would do with it. No we are not really tired of the landlord thing, we do other things with most of our time. One always tries to think ahead as to what to invest in. Real Estate has always been a good investment for us and we got out of the stock market (most of it) at a good time, we saw that coming too.

Where else do you feel would be a good investment?

[SHELLY]

Where else do you feel would be a good investment?

The markets have been flashing red and green all summer. I expect once the "real traders" get back from vacation AND the Fed stops playing "good cop, bad cop" with the economy, AND the elections are over, the crystal ball will start to clear.

Personally, I'm pretty risk averse, so I'm diversified....except for the fact that I'm sitting on a bunch of "cash" right now (hey, 5%+ isn't too shabby for zero risk and high liquidity).

Got some US stocks and funds and some international (Europe, Asia, Emerging Markets) which have been keeping each other in balance. Last year on a whim took a position in Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining (for a commodity play)--they closed this fund out and it's been a roller coaster since May, but still up 20%+ for the year. It's in a tax-free retirement fund, so I'm planning on giving it a good haircut (or maybe even close it out) this winter and move it somewhere--don't know where that is yet.

"Invested" in a couple of vacations--still got a few rainbow trout in the freezer....I reckon they are worth about $75 a pound :biggrin:

[Unplugged]

I usually am not one to get involved but I do have to say I don't understand why everyone picks on SHELLY? His/her opinion is just that - an opinion. He/She can't make you feel angry, frustrated or anything negative - it's we ourselves that allow ourselves to feel what we feel. How people respond to things tells me more about them than what they say. And why in heavens name does it matter what SHELLY does?? If you feel confidant that your position is solid on a given topic, it shouldn't matter if someone agrees or disagrees with you. Voice your viewpoint, let the other guy/gal voice their viewpoint and see if there is any enlightment in the discussion. If not, toss it aside.

I just think everyone is entitled to their opinion and I don't think it's fair or right to pick on someone because their opinion goes against the grain. I personally like the wide range of thoughts and opinions here. It makes for great reading and discussion. I'm not defending SHELLY, I'm defending the process of information exchange. One thing I would like to know, though, about SHELLY - are you a girl or boy? I hate having to say he/she, him/her, etc

I will step down now...thank you. :biggrin:Excellent post Indigo Jill!! :clap_1:
____________________________

[SHELLY]

Redfish,

Since you're interested in the US economy, there's a good article in today's NYT about inflation: Global Trends May Hinder Effort to Curb U.S. Inflation (http://http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/28/business/worldbusiness/28fed.html?th&emc=th)

Here's an excerpt:

Global Trends May Hinder Effort to Curb U.S. Inflation

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo., Aug. 27 — As the Federal Reserve fiercely debates how to reduce inflation within the United States, economists are warning that trends outside the country may soon make the Fed’s job much harder.

In recent years, global integration has made things easier for the Fed in two ways. An explosion in low-cost exports from China and other countries helped keep prices of many products low even as Americans spent heavily and loaded up on debt.

At the same time, China and other relatively poor nations reversed the normal patterns of global investment by becoming net lenders to the United States and Europe. Analysts estimate that this “uphill’’ flow of money from poor nations to rich ones may have reduced long-term interest rates in the United States by 1.5 percentage points in recent years — a big difference when home mortgage rates are about 6 percent.

But as Fed officials held their annual retreat this weekend here in the Grand Tetons, a growing number of economists warned that those benign international trends could abate or even reverse.

For one thing, they said, China’s explosive rise as a low-cost manufacturer does not mean that prices will fall year after year. Indeed, China’s voracious appetite for oil and raw materials has aggravated inflation by driving up global prices for oil and many commodities.

Beyond that, new research presented this weekend suggested that the United States could not count on a continuation of cheap money from poor countries. Those flows could stop as soon as countries find ways to spend their excess savings at home.

“Medium- and long-term interest rates are set outside of the country,’’ said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University and a former director of research at the International Monetary Fund. “It’s very important to think about what to do if the winds of globalization change.’’

[dsilvar]

Got some US stocks and funds and some international (Europe, Asia, Emerging Markets) which have been keeping each other in balance. Last year on a whim took a position in Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining (for a commodity play)--they closed this fund out and it's been a roller coaster since May, but still up 20%+ for the year. It's in a tax-free retirement fund, so I'm planning on giving it a good haircut (or maybe even close it out) this winter and move it somewhere--don't know where that is yet.

What? ..no RE holdings. The single commodity that has had an annualized return of over 30% the last few years and better than the "market" return historically? You are an investulator SHEL..think about it..you just use a different currency to play with. Your gain in the stock market is somebody's loss..no?
Heck, I digress..I'm chasing experiences and not things any more..hard to get rid of a habit.
The question one should ask is "How much money is enough?"..I've told my kids that when I die I will be one dollar in debt. :biggrin:

[spinDrAtl]

The markets have been flashing red and green all summer. I expect once the "real traders" get back from vacation AND the Fed stops playing "good cop, bad cop" with the economy, AND the elections are over, the crystal ball will start to clear.

Personally, I'm pretty risk averse, so I'm diversified....except for the fact that I'm sitting on a bunch of "cash" right now (hey, 5%+ isn't too shabby for zero risk and high liquidity).

Got some US stocks and funds and some international (Europe, Asia, Emerging Markets) which have been keeping each other in balance. Last year on a whim took a position in Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining (for a commodity play)--they closed this fund out and it's been a roller coaster since May, but still up 20%+ for the year. It's in a tax-free retirement fund, so I'm planning on giving it a good haircut (or maybe even close it out) this winter and move it somewhere--don't know where that is yet.

"Invested" in a couple of vacations--still got a few rainbow trout in the freezer....I reckon they are worth about $75 a pound :biggrin:

A "commodity play" sure sounds like gambli...., um, investulat...., um... :D

[6thGen]

Somewhat on topic, it should be noted that rate targeting alone does not work.


http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NzM2NTE1ZTJmNmZlMGJlYWM5NDgyMjA5Y2Q5ZjljOTk=

[SHELLY]

A "commodity play" sure sounds like gambli...., um, investulat...., um... :D

Carrying costs are minimal...no raising insurance costs; no raising taxes; no raising interest rates; and no 6% sales commission :biggrin:

In the words of that great American Ron Popeil: "Set it and forget it" (But have an exit strategy.)

I can be out of this position by close of business today--how many people holding a condo down on the beach can say the same?

[SHELLY]

What? ..no RE holdings. The single commodity that has had an annualized return of over 30% the last few years and better than the "market" return historically?

Of course I'm in RE: I own my house...free and clear :D

[TooFarTampa]

One thing I would like to know, though, about SHELLY - are you a girl or boy? I hate having to say he/she, him/her, etc


:popcorn:

C'mon SHELLY. Give us this much.:D

[nmosley]

I honestly don't think Shelly is bitter and really, does it matter if we know??

I have deliberately named my girls with names whereby they can use their initials as they get older and in business and be able to have written correspondence without anyone knowing their sex - that way, they can choose to share or not share based on their preference in any situation and not have their general correspondence in any way devalued based on peoples' perceptions of their sex (which unfortunately still happens whether we choose to admit it or not :( .

I think it is cool that Shelly has kept this hand hidden as it forces us to look at what is being said and that is my $.02. I am trying to get changed (upgraded) from Beach Crab, hence my taking the time to post on this one!!! :D

[SHELLY]

:popcorn:

C'mon SHELLY. Give us this much.:D

I thought about it...but it's much more fun being enigmatic. You never know, I just might be RuPaul (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:RuPaul.jpg)

I will give you this much...SHELLY is my "Nom de Plume"

[TooFarTampa]

I thought about it...but it's much more fun being enigmatic. You never know, I just might be RuPaul (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:RuPaul.jpg)

I will give you this much...SHELLY is my "Nom de Plume"

Now you're just being mean. ;-)

[dsilvar]

Of course I'm in RE: I own my house...free and clear :D
Thats ma boy!! Shel:clap_1:

[SHELLY]

Your gain in the stock market is somebody's loss..no?


Not quite. The way the stock market is supposed to work is that someone buys a stock in a company that actually makes a product or provides a service (i.e., a "real" v.s. a 90's "virtual" company) and makes a profit from such. Let's say Wrigley (WWY) takes horses' hooves & sugar and turns it into chewing gum--that's "value added" -- people wouldn't pay good money to buy old hooves, but they are willing to pay for a package of Big Red. WWY expands the distribution of Big Red to China and India; more hooves, more sugar, more profits...and so on and so on.

Contrast that "value added" to RE flipping. A person buys a house for $100,000 on Jun 1st; gives it the $10,000 flipper special (GCT, SS appliances, a coat of contractor beige paint) and sells it for $200,000 on Jun 25th. The second person adds $10,000 of Pergo and a back deck and sells it for $300,000 on July 15th.

One is sustainable, value-added, profitable and worthy of investment. The other is unsustainable speculative frenzy. All things being equal, the former is capable of producing a situation where each succeeding holder of the stock has a chance of being better off--the latter will end up with "the greatest fool" dangling at the end of the line.

[redfisher]

[QUOTE=SHELLY;142759]Redfish,

Since you're interested in the US economy, there's a good article in today's NYT about inflation: Global Trends May Hinder Effort to Curb U.S. Inflation (http://http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/28/business/worldbusiness/28fed.html?th&emc=th)



I can assure you, its more than an "interest"

[dbuck]

I thought about it...but it's much more fun being enigmatic. You never know, I just might be RuPaul (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:RuPaul.jpg)

I will give you this much...SHELLY is my "Nom de Plume"

No, don't tell . . . it's much more interesting not knowing. I love a good mystery.

[SHELLY]

One thing I would like to know, though, about SHELLY - are you a girl or boy? I hate having to say he/she, him/her, etc


Just pick one and go with it...you can also use "they" or "it" if you choose.

[Bobby J]

Of course I'm in RE: I own my house...free and clear :D

Where is the logic in owning your own home free and clear... Are you anti American? Did you not read "Rich Dad, Poor Dad"? Shelly, we must talk. Lets meet at Starbucks at 9am on Friday :cool: . I promise, I will not expose your secret identity. :D

[SHELLY]

Where is the logic in owning your own home free and clear... Are you anti American? Did you not read "Rich Dad, Poor Dad"? Shelly, we must talk. Lets meet at Starbucks at 9am on Friday :cool: . I promise, I will not expose your secret identity. :D

The author being the velcro wallet guy who's now touring the country as a keynote speaker in the 2-Day Infomerical "Real Estate Wealth Expo--One Weekend Can Make You A Millionaire."
(http://www.successweekend.com/)(Which, by the way, has dropped the statement "One Weekend Can Make You a Millionaire" from the seminar title about 2 months ago :cool: Probably should have been changed to "One weekend will make "me" a million")Cash or Charge? (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/gate/archive/2006/03/31/carollloyd.DTL&o=0)

Here's what the promoters say: "Whether it's $5k, $50k or $5 million, Real Estate investing is your answer! Real Estate investing provides the highest returns, the greatest values and the least risk. :lie: Virtually every great fortune in the U.S. was made by property investors and federal, state and local tax laws :floor: ensure that this trend will continue."

Here's a story from "behind the scenes:" Enjoy.
Part 1 (http://laswansong.blogspot.com/2005/11/part-1-how-i-discovered-true-meaning.html)

Part II (http://http://laswansong.blogspot.com/2005/11/part-2-how-i-discovered-true-meaning.html)

[Bobby J]

I was only playing about owning your own home free and clear. I actually never agreed with his take on that. I however agree with his take on Real Estate being a great investment versus the stock market. I personally like to pull up to my investment....

[sberry123]

What can we do to fix everything? Stop the greed, then everything will fall into place. Easy...no?

Because I've lived in the panhandle for decades my viewpoint of "local beauty" is far different from that of newcomers. If someone had told me in the 70's Hwy 98 would be choked with traffic; condos, houses and seawalls would line the beaches; access to the beaches would be cut off by private developments; and the regular Joe couldn't find an affordable place to live; I would have told them they were out of their mind too! (And that was less than 40 years ago!)

And because I follow the economy of the US, I know we are not in a very good place--and eventually the economy is going to have to flush itself, and it's not going to be pretty for the unprepared. For those who want ignore the warnings, who cares? Keep spending borrowed money like there is no tomorrow. But like they say in the biz, "During recessions money is returned to its rightful owner."

There are plenty of Pollyannas on the forum...I don't mind playing the :twisted:'s advocate.

Just like I may seem like the person who stands on the corner and shouts "Repent, the end is near"...I view those who keep trying to reform my way of thinking like a Jehovah Witness who incessantly pound on the door trying to get me to change my ways. :D ....it's not gonna happen.
I agree with Shelly, greed. Everyone got greedy, the Real Estate agents and investors pusing the price up based on speculation, the appraisers for speculative appraising, the lenders wanting to make their origination fees and junk fees with risky financing. Here is a thought, take away the hurricaines and higher insurance, take away the lucrative financing, take away the 40 year lows for interest rates. Were there ever enough end user buyers to buy all these new condos? With all these new condos coming for sale, have the builders really over built for the end user demand? If so, that is bad, now add back in the hurricaines and higher insurance, the interest rates are now longer at the 40 year lows, lender financing has tightened up. These are my thoughts and Shelly may be on to something here!

[dsilvar]

I agree with Shelly, greed.
The only problem is that the word "greed" does not exist in a Capatilist handbook!!:blush:
If you build it they will come....boooooomers!!

[Bobby J]

Sberry,
I agree with you on the greedy part but you forgot one more greedy part... The buyer(myself included). Not one buyer was forced into anything. One last thing, some of these threads go on like the real estate market is over. It has only changed. To all you agents, get out, get dirty, 2003- 2005 is over! This new market is challenging but sales are happening. If you read and believe these doomsayer comments you would want to move. Shelly, makes alot of good points but I do not believe Shelly has a complete understanding of the whole market and certAIN AREAS OF THE MARKET. Some stuff is going to be a disaster but some stuff is going to be ok. You can never make general statements about 30A. Too many people want to be here. Just my thoughts...;-)

[Smiling JOe]

Bobby hits on a good point -- The buyers always set the market price. I, too, agree with sberry123 regarding the greed from many sides.

[Mango]

Where is the logic in owning your own home free and clear... Are you anti American? Did you not read "Rich Dad, Poor Dad"? Shelly, we must talk. Lets meet at Starbucks at 9am on Friday :cool: . I promise, I will not expose your secret identity. :D

The logic is being able to sleep at night knowing you don't owe anyone any money if something happens to you or your spouse.
I am a mortgage broker, and I own my primary residence free and clear.
There was greed all over the country, but I was even more shocked in 2002 when I came to SoWal looking for property for long term investment and for eventual primary housing.
I had SELLING agents tell me they could re-list a property even before I closed for a substantial amount more than what I paid.
I asked them what the little old lady might think who trusted them with them listing who was supposed to get the highest and best price. I personally looked at many beach communities along the East coast and never saw anything as drastic like what was going on in Florida and Nevada. No ffense to realtors on this Board, I am sure you're still in the biz for a good reason.

My husband called it capitalism. To me capitalism has a more defined definition.
Shelly's opinions may be a little extreme at times, but I think "it" is right on the money right now. Economics is NOT an exact science and everyone is entitled to their opinions, but don't knock someone who has taken the time to explain basic economic principles on these threads by asking them to be more specific?

[SHELLY]

The logic is being able to sleep at night knowing you don't owe anyone any money if something happens to you or your spouse.


They call us "SWANs": Sleeps Well At Night. :sleeping:

[Mango]

They call us "SWANs": Sleeps Well At Night. :sleeping:

:lolabove: and its 1:45 my time. ;-)

[Bobby J]

The logic is being able to sleep at night knowing you don't owe anyone any money if something happens to you or your spouse.
I am a mortgage broker, and I own my primary residence free and clear.
There was greed all over the country, but I was even more shocked in 2002 when I came to SoWal looking for property for long term investment and for eventual primary housing.
I had SELLING agents tell me they could re-list a property even before I closed for a substantial amount more than what I paid.
I asked them what the little old lady might think who trusted them with them listing who was supposed to get the highest and best price. I personally looked at many beach communities along the East coast and never saw anything as drastic like what was going on in Florida and Nevada. No ffense to realtors on this Board, I am sure you're still in the biz for a good reason.

My husband called it capitalism. To me capitalism has a more defined definition.
Shelly's opinions may be a little extreme at times, but I think "it" is right on the money right now. Economics is NOT an exact science and everyone is entitled to their opinions, but don't knock someone who has taken the time to explain basic economic principles on these threads by asking them to be more specific?

I am only having fun with Shelly. I loved the book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" but I did not agree with what he said about home ownership. We should all strive to pay off off our home(IMO). The author disagrees with that theory. I also agree with Shelly the majority of the time. I disagree with her in some "areas" of Real Estate. Some areas are going to be fine.

[Bobby J]

BTW I slept real well last night....