Invest 99, looks like the Cape Verde Season

[tropicwatch]

might be starting to wake up. Invest 99 looks impressive and so far it does not look like this one will be a fish storm if it holds together!

Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info)

[bsmart]

might be starting to wake up. Invest 99 looks impressive and so far it does not look like this one will be a fish storm if it holds together!

Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info)


There is also another system near Hispanola which The Weather Channel said could develop.

[bsmart]

might be starting to wake up. Invest 99 looks impressive and so far it does not look like this one will be a fish storm if it holds together!

Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info)


Incidentally tropicwatch, are you the user "megaopps" on TWC messageboards?

[kurt]

might be starting to wake up. Invest 99 looks impressive and so far it does not look like this one will be a fish storm if it holds together!

Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info/)

Quite often I have no idea what you are talking about. We are not weather experts and would really appreciate a few more words in your posts since you are going through the trouble to keep us informed.

[bsmart]

Quite often I have no idea what you are talking about. We are not weather experts and would really appreciate a few more words in your posts since you are going through the trouble to keep us informed.


Invests are the term used to describe a system when it is being monitored--that is the system is a tropical wave whose coordinates are now being logged and it is being watched for further development. The next step after a storm is classified as an Invest is to call it a depression, then it strengthens into a tropical storm, and you know the rest. The Cape Verde season describes storms which form in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands off of the coast of Africa, during the months between August and October. Cape Verde storms tend to be among the most powerful given the fact that they have such a large area of warm ocean waters to traverse before making their way to land areas. Memorable storms which have formed during Cape Verde seasons include: Andrew, Floyd, and Ivan. Finally, fish storms are storms which do not affect land areas, and are only of interest to ships and of course marine life, hence the name.

[tropicwatch]

bsmart, that was a great explanation. I apologize for not going into more detail in explaining what I post. I have a tendancy to assume that those on this board are long time natives to the gulf coast and understand terminology regarding tropical systems. I have lived in north west florida since 1967 and have always had an interest in hurricanes. Over the years of tracking and watching these systems, I have become very familiar with and try to stay on top of the latest information available.

By the way bsmart, I am megaopps on TWC. I am unable to change the name.

[bsmart]

bsmart, that was a great explanation. I apologize for not going into more detail in explaining what I post. I have a tendancy to assume that those on this board are long time natives to the gulf coast and understand terminology regarding tropical systems. I have lived in north west florida since 1967 and have always had an interest in hurricanes. Over the years of tracking and watching these systems, I have become very familiar with and try to stay on top of the latest information available.

By the way bsmart, I am megaopps on TWC. I am unable to change the name.


Well nice to meet you, I am "Brian Storm" on TWC message boards.

[Smiling JOe]

right, but what is a fish storm?

[Miss Kitty]

right, but what is a fish storm?

Storms that only affect the fish and pirates out at sea.

[kurt]

Thanks weather geeks. :lol:


I do appreciate it. :clap_1:

[bsmart]

Finally, fish storms are storms which do not affect land areas, and are only of interest to ships and of course marine life, hence the name.


They are usually the storms which swing around the Bermuda high which sits out in the mid atlantic.


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005H/track.gif

In the above graphic, which is of the the 2005 Hurricane Season, Delta, Zeta, Maria and Lee are all fish storms because they did not affect land areas.

[Smiling JOe]

Thanks, I guess I didn't read closely enough. :oops:

[Miss Kitty]

Thanks, I guess I didn't read closely enough. :oops:

Looks like you only have eyes for Jonathon.

[jessifunn]

http://smiley.onegreatguy.net/sleeping.gif

[kathydwells]

http://smiley.onegreatguy.net/sleeping.gif

:funn:

[Smiling JOe]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog (http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html)

"Last night's run of the GFDL model has the wave developing into a tropical storm by Monday night, when it crosses through the Leeward Islands near Guadeloupe. The GFDL then brings the tropical storm across the Dominican Republic on Wednesday night. None of the other models buy this solution, and predict that wind shear and dry air will keep this wave from developing. That is my expectation as well. Even if the wave does develop, a strong upper-level cold low north of the Bahamas will bring very hostile wind shear to any storm that tries to approach the U.S. East Coast."

(full report (http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=438&tstamp=200607))

http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/at200699_model.gif

[TooFarTampa]

To quote Dr. Masters: "Shear Rules!" :clap_1:

[bsmart]

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog (http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html)


(full report (http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=438&tstamp=200607))

http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/at200699_model.gif


Computer models keep shifting this thing south of the Islands. It would be nice if that wind shear could keep it below threat level and just have it as a nice rainmaker over the south.

[aquaticbiology]

THE MAGNET :wub: is reportedly getting his boots on for the upcoming season - God Bless You Hurricane Jim - be safe and stay out of florida

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/7/72/Jim_Cantore_The_Weather_Channel_2006.jpg/180px-Jim_Cantore_The_Weather_Channel_2006.jpg

[Smiling JOe]

THE MAGNET :wub: is reportedly getting his boots on for the upcoming season - God Bless You Hurricane Jim - be safe and stay out of florida

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/7/72/Jim_Cantore_The_Weather_Channel_2006.jpg/180px-Jim_Cantore_The_Weather_Channel_2006.jpgWhat do you mean, the upcoming season? We are two full months into the season.

[nicdeedoop]

We have no name 3
First advisory at 11 PM EDT

I found Eglins Outlook today funny


0930L 31 July Tropical Update:



A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is being monitored for development by the National Hurricane Center. The Hurricane Hunters of the USAF Reserve have deployed an aircraft from Keesler AFB to their forward operating base in St Croix to be ready to fly later today if it continues to look like this wave might be forming into a depression. Only a couple of computer models suggest this system will eventually form into a significant tropical cyclone, but here at Eglin, we need to watch it because its future track follows the “problem child” path we have seen the past couple of years with storms like Ivan and Dennis, where it skims along the southern coast of Cuba before turning northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico. If it follows that path, it would reach the Gulf by about Saturday.

Another wave, northwest of Puerto Rico, is battling some winds shear and is not expected to develop, however, some of the energy from this system may make its way across Florida by later this week and this needs to be watched as well.

Finally, a large and well-developed tropical wave has entered the Atlantic, just coming off the west coast of Africa. Nearly all computer models forecast this wave to develop into a hurricane over the next seven days as it moves westward across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean.



The active period we were expecting in early August may be showing signs of becoming a reality as conditions across the tropics are becoming much more favorable for hurricane formation

[TooFarTampa]

Finally, a large and well-developed tropical wave has entered the Atlantic, just coming off the west coast of Africa. Nearly all computer models forecast this wave to develop into a hurricane over the next seven days as it moves westward across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean.


This part just makes me want to :puke:

I sure hope we get through the next couple of months OK.

[bsmart]

This is now Tropical Storm Chris.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/090730.shtml?5day?large

[flowergirl40pc]

Thanks for the update bsmart.....was about to go look at NOAA , do they expect it to have a more NW track? or possibly come into the gulf?

[John R]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306W5+gif/031116W_sm.gif

[flowergirl40pc]

stay away Chris!:bang:

[Smiling JOe]

Niceedoop, I fail to see the humor in that report. :idontno:

[nicdeedoop]

Okay "funny" was a bad word...

[flowergirl40pc]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200603_model.html

[Paige]

Alright, this just makes me sick. We are to arrive in Seagrove Saturday. By the looks of the tracking, chances are Seagrove will be affected in some way. A question for those that have gone through this many times. At what point should we reconsider our trip?

[flowergirl40pc]

Alright, this just makes me sick. We are to arrive in Seagrove Saturday. By the looks of the tracking, chances are Seagrove will be affected in some way. A question for those that have gone through this many times. At what point should we reconsider our trip?

I've lived here my whole life.........and my opinion is that you don't reconsider your trip.....YET, just watch the reports closely..........course, I'm no weather expert.........looks like there are a couple more that posts on here than are more well versed in meteorology than I.:idontno:

[bsmart]

Alright, this just makes me sick. We are to arrive in Seagrove Saturday. By the looks of the tracking, chances are Seagrove will be affected in some way. A question for those that have gone through this many times. At what point should we reconsider our trip?

Go ahead as scheduled. Pay close attention to the updates on this system by tuning into the media outlets such as The Weather Channel. If it looks like anything will happen, tourists will have opportunity to leave before the worst rolls in. My dad, uncle and I went down to our condo two days before Ivan hit to board up almost everyone's complex (snow birds) and we made it down and left with no traffic problems at all.

[Mango]

I wouldn't fret just yet. Just keep watching the reports from the links above.

[flowergirl40pc]

Go ahead as scheduled. Pay close attention to the updates on this system by tuning into the media outlets such as The Weather Channel. If it looks like anything will happen, tourists will have opportunity to leave before the worst rolls in. My dad, uncle and I went down to our condo two days before Ivan hit to board up almost everyone's complex (snow birds) and we made it down and left with no traffic problems at all.

I knew bsmart would respond...........just stay tuned to his reports, besides..........he's cuter than Jim Cantore:rolling:

[TooFarTampa]

we love our bsmart, he lives up to his name. :clap_1:

[Mango]

Go ahead as scheduled. Pay close attention to the updates on this system by tuning into the media outlets such as The Weather Channel. If it looks like anything will happen, tourists will have opportunity to leave before the worst rolls in. My dad, uncle and I went down to our condo two days before Ivan hit to board up almost everyone's complex (snow birds) and we made it down and left with no traffic problems at all.

I am not sure the weather channel is the best source. They are in the media business after all and have a tendancy to be dramatic.

[Mango]

I knew bsmart would respond...........just stay tuned to his reports, besides..........he's cuter than Jim Cantore:rolling:

That's true. ;-) Jim Cantore watch out! :biggrin:

[flowergirl40pc]

:bow: :bow: to bsmart :clap_1:

[Smiling JOe]

A good source to keep up to date is

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

Look for Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog located on the right side of the page. His analysis is easy to understand, without too much technical data. ;-)


http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200603_model.gif
Last night's models of TS Chris

[Uncle Timmy]

I am not sure the weather channel is the best source. They are in the media business after all and have a tendancy to be dramatic.

I agree absolutely! They over-hype these storms to the point where I fear they are creating a 'cry wolf' scenario. I wish they would re-think their coverage so that the public will take them more seriously during the truly dangerous storms.

I would listen to SJ and bsmart over the Weather Channel anyday.

On that note....does anyone remember Jim Cantore riding in the back of a pick-up truck last season and describing the 'incredible wind gusts'? I just wanted to yell -"then pull the d*mn truck over to the side of the road and you will reduce the gusting by about 40mph!!!!!!" Stupid.

[aquaticbiology]

i still have yet to goose 'ol hurricane jim live on the air - one of my life's many unfilled ambitions - and one worth going to jail for (or hell, which is more than i can say for some of the other life's ambitions on my list!)

[Uncle Timmy]

i still have yet to goose 'ol hurricane jim live on the air - one of my life's many unfilled ambitions
:clap_1: :rolling:

[flowergirl40pc]

A good source to keep up to date is

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

Look for Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog located on the right side of the page. His analysis is easy to understand, without too much technical data. ;-)


http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200603_model.gif
Last night's models of TS Chris


:bow: :bow: to SJ too:clap_1:

[TooFarTampa]

I likey like that GFDL track, and that's been the most accurate model so far on this storm. Paige you should be just fine.

[flowergirl40pc]

C'mon down and enjoy the funn Paige:clap_1:

[Miss Kitty]

Maybe that's why Castro put his bro in charge and left town? He listened to TWC.

[tropicwatch]

Paige, we are at least eight days away from experiencing any effects from Chris if we get any at all. The storm currently forecast to be approaching the Florida Straits or be south of the western edge of Cuba by Sunday. Which would not effect the weather in North West Florida. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the track and it might not even make it into the Gulf of Mexico. I think it will but from there it is anybody's guess where it goes.

Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info)

[Lady D]

I agree absolutely! They over-hype these storms to the point where I fear they are creating a 'cry wolf' scenario. I wish they would re-think their coverage so that the public will take them more seriously during the truly dangerous storms.

I would listen to SJ and bsmart over the Weather Channel anyday.

On that note....does anyone remember Jim Cantore riding in the back of a pick-up truck last season and describing the 'incredible wind gusts'? I just wanted to yell -"then pull the d*mn truck over to the side of the road and you will reduce the gusting by about 40mph!!!!!!" Stupid.

Well, that may be so but I like watching their live coverage when one has come ashore. That looks pretty thrilling but they talk it to death before anything has happened.

[Smiling JOe]

From WeathterUnderground.com:


Chris is stronger

Posted by: JeffMasters (http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), 4:05 PM EDT on August 01, 2006

The Hurricane Hunters found much stronger winds than expected in Chris this afternoon. The 2:50 pm EDT eye report indicated a central pressure of 1007 mb, down 2 mb from the most recent advisory. Most surprising were the winds in the southeast quadrant, which were in the 55-60 mph range. Radar out of Guadeloupe (http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html) shows this intense band thunderstorms rather nicely. The northern side of Chris is still devoid of thunderstorms due to the dry air and wind shear. The storm's appearance on satellite imagery is improved from this morning, and shows the beginnings of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature typical of strong tropical storms. Wind shear has dropped another 5 knots this afternoon, down to 10-20 knots, so some continued strengthening is possible. The latest set of model runs are quite divergent on what Chris might do, and I think we really need to wait until the next set of model runs is in before we can rely on the computer models. Unfortunately, tonight's flight of the NOAA jet was cancelled, so we'll have to wait until Wednesday night for the jet to fly. Most of the computer models are still dissipating Chris by five days from now.

I'll be back with an update in the morning with the latest.

Jeff Masters