Let the bidding begin...Alys Beach

[Joe]

I received an information package from Alys Beach. I found it interesting that they are using a sealed bidding process rather than lottery to sell the lots. They specify a minimum amount that they will accept on each lot and then you can bid a higher number to "win" the lot purchase. It will be interesting to see how high the prices are bid.

[Smiling JOe]

Just reminded me of a particular Real Estate Broker's offices in Port St. Joe. He asked the interior decorator to copy the color green from a dollar bill for his interior wall color choice. It looks terrible. He calls it "dollar bill green," and he is laughing all the way to the bank.

[Georgian]

And now lets see what is behind dollar sign number one ...........

The min. price on the north side of 30A $785K and 1.4M for the south side

Again these are just the minimums

Hey, the one positive note I can think of is you won't have to wait to get your exterior color scheme approved. You can choose any color you want as long as its white.

[skier]

I got the package too. WIth all the inventory on the market in Watercolor, Seaside, Rosemary, Seacrest, Seagrove, Blue Mountain, etc, etc. I can't imagine investors getting in on this round of bidding at ALys. I think the gravy train may have ended for the developers. I talked with a few folks that "won" the lottery in Phase 4 in watercolor (these are flippers never intending to own long term) and they passed on the opportunity. My gut tells me for the short termers, prices will come down from the lofty listing prices now in evidence at these developments. Prices per square foot in many non beach front homes in the "premier" developments are approaching and exceeding $1,000 per square foot. And, lot prices are $250 to $400 per square foot. The supply and demand is too screwed up in the short term to support these prices. Sales have slowed to a crawl from breakneck pace 8 to 12 months ago. Prices are so high that there are very few folks that can afford the prices.

I hope the prices are real because I have my home in Watercolor for sale hoping to cash in if the craze is real. But, I don't think it is. I think the runup in prices was caused by a huge amount of speculation that cannot be supported once the speculators have to sell 2, 3, 4 or more properties to "real" long term owners. I remember having similar discussions with friends in the late 90's regarding a speculative bubble in the stock market. None of them believed me until their portfolios crumbled with lots of tech stocks.

If my home in Watercolor does not sell at a high price, I will be perfectly content to be a long term home owner. However, many, many of the current owners of lots and condos in SoWal will not be content to own long term. That's why there is a glut of stuff on the market. At some point, many of these investors will be forced to sell for cash flow purposes (how many of these properties are financed with interest only loans????).

Hope I'm wrong. Time will tell.

[Smiling JOe]

If my home in Watercolor does not sell at a high price, I will be perfectly content to be a long term home owner. However, many, many of the current owners of lots and condos in SoWal will not be content to own long term. That's why there is a glut of stuff on the market.

In my opinion, there are too many people, who don't care if they sell, placing ridiculous prices on their property. Doing so, causes greater supply that just sits on the market, untouched. Personally, I think that repels many potential buyers. I see plenty of examples of similar type properties for sale with prices fluctating 50%. There is no justification for some of these prices listed. The agents taking these listings will do whatever it takes (regarding listing price) just to get the listing. By not pricing the property correctly (market price), they are doing their customers, and other property owners a great disservice. Then, when a neighbor sees this ridiculous price, they say, "well if he can get that for his property, I will sell mine too." The problem is that nobody sells when this happens. Inventory of listings increases and sales decrease.
I think everyone around here could use a basic economics class.

[skier]

Smiling Joe--I agree 100% with your conclusion. I am one of those folks pricing my house high--about $1100 per square foot. However, there have been a few "greater fools" paying these prices recently. I think they are crazy, but if mine will sell at that price, I'll take it. If not, no problem for me. The folks that get smitten are the ones that don't understand basic economics and came in with the herd mentality over the last 6 to 12 months and paid unreasonable prices hoping to flip at a profit. These hogs will get slaughtered in my opinion when prices get back to "market" per your message.

[Rita]

In my opinion, there are too many people, who don't care if they sell, placing ridiculous prices on their property. Doing so, causes greater supply that just sits on the market, untouched. Personally, I think that repels many potential buyers. I see plenty of examples of similar type properties for sale with prices fluctating 50%. There is no justification for some of these prices listed. The agents taking these listings will do whatever it takes (regarding listing price) just to get the listing. By not pricing the property correctly (market price), they are doing their customers, and other property owners a great disservice. Then, when a neighbor sees this ridiculous price, they say, "well if he can get that for his property, I will sell mine too." The problem is that nobody sells when this happens. Inventory of listings increases and sales decrease.
I think everyone around here could use a basic economics class.



So True!

[GVM]

An email quote today from a Realtor who knows the market very well:

"The market is slowing (your prediction but later!) because there is so much coming on the market with folks trying to cash in. Looks like asking prices will come down, not sure how much."

As someone observed on this board several weeks ago: "The good money has already gone out the back door."

The coming months will be very, very interesting.

[Cork On the Ocean]

I've had concerns when watching the MLS Hot sheet this year. I felt that I was seeing many more price reductions this year than last year (which were minimal on 30A). This thread stimulated me to run some numbers:

Price Decreases: Each ratio=#price changes/#price drops/%of changes down

March April May June to date
2004 98 /5/5% 88/12/13.6% 78/16/20.5% 34/7/20.6%
2005 142/43/30.3% 113/45/39.8% 161/111/68.9% 87/63/72.4%

Looks like more Price Changes-probably more listings. More price decreases-Overinflated list prices.


Pending Sales:

#Pending Ave Pend Sales Price Ave Pend SqFt Price
3/04 140 $755,547 $449.82
4/04 143 $739,405 $421.12
5/04 111 $864,489 $457.79
6/04 To date 48 $857,934 $460.24

3/05 111 (-21%) $1,179,530 (+56%) $599.92 (+33%)
4/05 75 (-48%) $1,231,393 (+66%) $624.08 (+48%)
5/05 74 (-33%) $1,099,248 (+27%) $592.98 (+29%)
6/05 to date 35 (-27%) $1,227,977 (+43%) $671.67 (+46%)

#Sales are down but moving back up from spring. Ave Sales price still way up as is the sq ft price :clap_1:. March and April 05, Ave Price increased significantly more that the sq ft price which makes me think that homes are larger (more sq ft for the money) The trend changed in May and June 05 which looks like as the sq ft price is increasing, people are taking less square feet than spring. Seems to be confirmed by the average sq ft of pending sales for 2005 (Price/sq ft price)

3/05 - Ave Sq Ft = 1966
4/05 - Ave Sq Ft = 1973
5/05 - Ave Sq Ft = 1854
6/05 - Ave Sq Ft = 1828

This data is strictly for 30A properties south of 98. Seems like we're still experiencing great returns but the decrease in #sales tell me less buyers for this area and maybe the trend in decreased sq ft could mean that we are approaching the cap on what people will pay for paradise. Of course, people overpricing their list prices doesn't help the trend. Apparently, there's still people out there to buy this market but will potential buyers feel they are priced out of this market and move on to other areas - N. Santa Rosa, Freeport, Mexco Bch? Will developers sense this trend and move on to other areas? Were already seeing moves into those areas. Any input would be appreciated.

Good? Bad? Depends on your perspective, I guess, but for those looking for strictly profit on quicker turns, there's probably going to better locales this year. Of course a 50% increase on property purchased at $400K is a $200K profit while a 25% increase on $1.1 million is a $275K profit so people who can afford 30A may still do better than higher appreciating, lower end markets.

Will be running similiar data on Freeport and North Santa Rosa for my mailing list. Will be happy to post on board for those interested or can add anyone interested to my mailing list - just email.

[Cork On the Ocean]

Couldn't agree more Joe. Don't think I've seen anyone greedier to date. I know there's all sorts of thoughts and experiences with realtors but I work real hard at this business. Last year, Alys reps said that they would be working with area realtors. After sending out info on the upcoming community for months, I called to get an update, saying that I had a very large mailing list of interested parties and was told that they've decided to keep everything in-house but they'd be happy to take my list of people and contact them. :blink: When I told them that I pay a lot in advertising and asked why in the world I should do that? I was told that I would always be able to pick up the resales. :floor: .

From my perspective, they are isolating local realtors which will bite them in the end. As you said, there's lots of beautiful property to sell here and realtors sell what they are familiar with. After 2 years of not showing Alys, will they all of a sudden flock there when the resales start? :idontno:

I try to educate my customers regarding all areas to help them choose the best location for their situation. Hopefully buyers (especially those out-of state) realize that these "inhouse" agents provide very limited, "forward looking" information on that one community. They will not be receiving info about Water's edge, Gulf place, 1st tier in Inlet for the same price or any other options. If buyers know the area and still want Alys, great, but by all means, people should do their homework and not just flock to another marketing scheme. Personally, I'd rather be sandwiched between Alys and Rosemary Beach at half the sq ft price and use their shops, activities and walkovers, unless they decide to make them private too!
$$$$$

Now this sealed bid thing. It will be interesting to see if people go for it.

[Advance The Man]

Now this sealed bid thing. It will be interesting to see if people go for it.

I was reading a portion of the FREC (Florida Real Estate Commission) manual and thought I read you cannot have a lottery for sales. You can have a lottery to have the opportunity to purchase. You can submit a sealed bid for an auction, but I didn't think you can sell via this avenue.

Regarding the way Alys requested your client's name...riduculous. In the end, will it really be surprising to see a little deflation? I don't think so. Did you really expect someone to pay $2,000,000 for a 4,000 square foot lot with no Gulfview? Although I wouldn't mind that since I just purchased one in Highland-Parks! :D

[Smiling JOe]

Of course a 50% increase on property purchased at $400K is a $200K profit while a 25% increase on $1.1 million is a $275K profit so people who can afford 30A may still do better than higher appreciating, lower end markets.



I guess that is one take, but, using your numbers, why wouldn't you spend the $1.1M and buy only two lots at $400K each instead of a beach property. Your return (50% you mention) would give you a return of $400K instead of only $275K from the beach property, not to mention you would have spent only $800K instead of $1.1M

[Smiling JOe]

From my perspective, they are isolating local realtors which will bite them in the end. As you said, there's lots of beautiful property to sell here and realtors sell what they are familiar with. After 2 years of not showing Alys, will they all of a sudden flock there when the resales start? :idontno:

I try to educate my customers regarding all areas to help them choose the best location for their situation. Hopefully buyers (especially those out-of state) realize that these "inhouse" agents provide very limited, "forward looking" information on that one community. They will not be receiving info about Water's edge, Gulf place, 1st tier in Inlet for the same price or any other options. If buyers know the area and still want Alys, great, but by all means, people should do their homework and not just flock to another marketing scheme. Personally, I'd rather be sandwiched between Alys and Rosemary Beach at half the sq ft price and use their shops, activities and walkovers, unless they decide to make them private too!
$$$$$


I guess Alys Beach doesn't care about the long term. After they sell all of the lots, the owners, not the developers, are stuck with the problem of Realtors not knowing the properties.

You also bring up a good point about developer's sales persons. They do not have to be licensed, and may not be able to protect your purchase as much as a Realtor.

[Advance The Man]

You also bring up a good point about developer's sales persons. They do not have to be licensed, and may not be able to protect your purchase as much as a Realtor.

Did Cork say that they don't have to be licensed? They do have to be licensed.

[Smiling JOe]

Did Cork say that they don't have to be licensed? They do have to be licensed.

No, Cork stated, "Hopefully buyers (especially those out-of state) realize that these "inhouse" agents provide very limited, "forward looking" information on that one community."

It just reminded me of the fact that a developer's sales team is not required to be licensed.

[Advance The Man]

No, Cork stated, "Hopefully buyers (especially those out-of state) realize that these "inhouse" agents provide very limited, "forward looking" information on that one community."

It just reminded me of the fact that a developer's sales team is not required to be licensed.

They ARE required to have a valid RE salesman license. You don't need a license if you are a property mgr renting apartments, rent condos for less than 12 months, etc. If you are selling Florida land for a commission, you must be licensed.

[Smiling JOe]

They ARE required to have a valid RE salesman license. You don't need a license if you are a property mgr renting apartments, rent condos for less than 12 months, etc. If you are selling Florida land for a commission, you must be licensed.

Your statement is correct, but not all Developers' sales staff are paid commission, and those on straight salary are not required to be licensed.

[Advance The Man]

Your statement is correct, but not all Developers' sales staff are paid commission, and those on straight salary are not required to be licensed.

I doubt any multi-millionaire dollar development along 30a is going to use a non-licensed sales person. I would be shocked.

[Smiling JOe]

I doubt any multi-millionaire dollar development along 30a is going to use a non-licensed sales person. I would be shocked.
Still, it is a question to ask. Nothing shocks me any more, and usually, money is tied to most decisions made around here. If a developer can save money, he/she often will do it.

[Advance The Man]

Still, it is a question to ask. Nothing shocks me any more, and usually, money is tied to most decisions made around here. If a developer can save money, he/she often will do it.

If I were to purchase there, I would want to know a lot of info they wouldn't provide. How many people are 'bidding'? Will it sell out at least at their minimum?

I would not touch Alys b/c of the unknowns. Who's to say I pay $975,000 and you pay $775,000 for a lot that is right next door to mine. Too scary. I would have a lot that is already $200,000 in the red.

This project with the bidding reaks of arrogance.

[SoWalSally]

There are probably plenty of people that aren't too worried about red.

Often we hear people amazed that Seaside lots were $100,00, WaterColor $200,000, Rosemary Beach . . .

People laugh about it now.

[Smiling JOe]

Alys Beach is going to be a family friendly place. In spite of what some may think, the developers are interested more in building a quality town than in making money. The market just happens to dictate sales prices. Also, they encourage people who are interested in actually living there to buy property....There is also an extensive environmental program to recycle building materials and to preserve the environment.
They are trying to do everything right that is why things are going so slow at this intial stage.

Does Camp Creek Kid care to clue us in to the latest and greatest on Alys Beach?

[STL Don]

I am sure that Camp Creek Kid could be more specific than a lot of the pure speculation that goes on here; but what's the point? If you don't like this development, then stay away.

[Buckhead Rick]

Along all of your lines today's NYTimes has an article and map showing the nation and where the most interest only, balloon loans are starting to "mature", yes you guessed correctly, SoWal is right behine South Florida. I have no idea what that means since I know nothing about real estate, but my guess is more property will come on line. Will it be more than there are buyers? As someone said, this will be a very interesting next few months.

[Georgian]

Those who are upset with the Alys beach strategy are not the clients Alys is trying to attract. I agree the prices are high and the concept of bidding is new on 30A but they want families who will stay a lifetime and the people who pay these prices can probably afford to stay a long time. It is my understanding that the long term goal at Alys is to be the 30A community most thought of in terms of quality, desirability, and asthetics.

And if they don't reach this goal with the kind of money they're asking they should be ashamed.

[alongfortheride]

Anyone think that there might be a drying up of even the most wealthy clients (which Alys is trying to sell too)? Do you think prices can fall here? :confused: Previously, it was very difficult to get an appointment to see the sales reps. This weekend the sales office was empty. I think their concept is great and want to own there but I'm afraid that the market won't support their prices. I don't think that any community along 30a will be immune from any falling prices. Other thought appreciated.

[Camp Creek Kid]

Does Camp Creek Kid care to clue us in to the latest and greatest on Alys Beach?

SJ, I have been busy living my life and have not been worrying about Alys Beach. I do not claim to be an expert on Alys Beach and my defense of the development was a defense of the individuals involved with Alys Beach, some of whom I know personally. I think it is a beatiful development and it it will be a wonderful place to live someday.

Alys Beach has always planned to offer some of their properties by sealed bid. They have also sold many properties/homes through presales. I have friends who were offered a homesite, but declined because they had already bought elsewhere.

Alys Beach's weakness may be in how slowly they are progressing in home construction and development. Many investors may have lost interest. We wanted to live their full-time, but have decided that we're tired of being full-time residents in a vacation community with renters. We're making other plans. I know others who planned to live there full-time, but have changed their minds for various reasons. Some don't want to wait 2-3 years for architecture and construction, others don't want to be so close to their neighbors. A few were tired with the wait to be offered a property.

If you don't like Alys Beach, stay away. But I bet everyone has something better to do with their time than speculate and criticize.

[skier]

along for the ride--

I think your comments are wise. The prices are sky high in Alys and they seem to be having a bit of trouble with the first round of sealed bids. Like you, I think the prices will be lower in the future.

[kurt]

I'd be interested to hear from some of the people that received bid info on what types of properties and how many.

What I've read is that most property that has been released was sold awhile ago and that only a limited number of "special" properties were under sealed bid.

Whatever the case, IMHO they will not have any trouble finding ready willing, and able buyers - but maybe not quite as quickly as 3 years ago.
The little bit of pricing info I've heard is not out of line with the other NUB towns.

[Joe]

The package I received had 9 lots.

6 lots were in phase 1A (north of 30A) with prices ranging from $785,000 to $1,700,000. Construction commencement ranged from 18 months on the $785K lot to 36 months. Property types included Courtyard, Compound and Villa.

3 lots were in phase 2B (south of 30A) and ranged from $1,400,000 to $1,725,000 with constuction commencement dates of 24 months. Property types were all Courtyard homes.

All had a build-out requirement of 18 months from the commencement date.

[FoX]

The package I received had 9 lots.

6 lots were in phase 1A (north of 30A) with prices ranging from $785,000 to $1,700,000. Construction commencement ranged from 18 months on the $785K lot to 36 months. Property types included Courtyard, Compound and Villa.

3 lots were in phase 2B (south of 30A) and ranged from $1,400,000 to $1,725,000 with constuction commencement dates of 24 months. Property types were all Courtyard homes.

All had a build-out requirement of 18 months from the commencement date.

Is there anyone that really believes those values won't double soon enough?

[skier]

Double in price :floor: maybe cut in half.

[katie blue]

Educate me, Skier, perhaps you know. Has there ever been a coastal economy that has decreased in value as drastically as you seem to think SoWal will? Seems completely unrealistic to me, but i don't claim to know. SoWal has inherent permanent value in its natural amenities, (coastal lakes, bays, blue wave beaches and numerous state parks); It's manmade amenities appeal greatly to an upscale crowd, (height limits, great dining, golf, activities, pristine communities.) Plus, it has not reached the price point that other upscle coastal communites in Florida have yet. On top of that, SoWal has equivalent or better beaches. Add to this the fact SoWal is a driving destination--an important aspect to those who will use the area as their second/vacation home, and permanent residents who want their families to be able to visit frequently. Add to this the "bubble" of aging boomers who are beginning to look for areas such as this.

Put that all together and you have a solid future outlook, in my opinion. A small adjustment here and there? sure. But any real decrease in value seems like it would be followed immediately by another wave of investors.

I could be very wrong. But I'd have to be shown some pretty solid facts to come off this opinion. Too many inherent points of value in SoWal, imho.

[Smiling JOe]

Educate me, Skier, perhaps you know. Has there ever been a coastal economy that has decreased in value as drastically as you seem to think SoWal will? Seems completely unrealistic to me, but i don't claim to know. SoWal has inherent permanent value in its natural amenities, (coastal lakes, bays, blue wave beaches and numerous state parks); It's manmade amenities appeal greatly to an upscale crowd, (height limits, great dining, golf, activities, pristine communities.) Plus, it has not reached the price point that other upscle coastal communites in Florida have yet. On top of that, SoWal has equivalent or better beaches. Add to this the fact SoWal is a driving destination--an important aspect to those who will use the area as their second/vacation home, and permanent residents who want their families to be able to visit frequently. Add to this the "bubble" of aging boomers who are beginning to look for areas such as this.

Put that all together and you have a solid future outlook, in my opinion. A small adjustment here and there? sure. But any real decrease in value seems like it would be followed immediately by another wave of investors.

I could be very wrong. But I'd have to be shown some pretty solid facts to come off this opinion. Too many inherent points of value in SoWal, imho.


On top of being a female guitarist in a band, Katmoo also sounds intelligent. :clap_1:

[FoX]

On top of being a female guitarist in a band, Katmoo also sounds intelligent. :clap_1:

http://www.mgmbill.org/All-Thumbs-Up.jpg

[Philip_Atlanta]

Like Katmoo, I think Skier is off-base. Predicting that property anywhere will drop to half of the current value is just speculation without any merit. Do I think we can sustain the growth patterns of the last year or two - no, of course not. I think we'll see a sustained growth of >10% and upwards of 20%. Here's why I think the market will continue to rise :

1. 75 million baby boomers, and less than half have reached retirement age.
2. The current creative financial instruments will continue (interest only, high LTV on 2nd homes).
3. Short term, the weak dollar - I'm in Rosemary and two of my close neighbors bought from oustide the country. I see this trend continuing.
4. As Katmoo mentioned, if you think our prices are high - check out other coastal areas.


My 2 cents...

[FoX]

I believe it was GVM that came over from Hilton Head a few years ago because of the price differential. I'd be curious to know what prices are like there now compared to SoWal.

And Some other resorts like Sea Island, Marco, etc.
And Donna is over on the left coast - maybe she can give us some comparisons to coastal areas over there.

[Paula]

Another reason property values may not drop significantly is people will still buy high-end properties with inheritance money. Many baby boomers will inherit money from their parents soon for those that haven't already (and some of these parents will have been pretty well off, though certainly not all of them). Many of those people who inherit will already have their primary home probably paid for if they're in their fifties or sixties, and will probably have retirement money saved up as well So, the inheritance may go to their vacation home. I'm sure the inheritance income potential hasn't gone past St. Joe's...

[skier]

Oh well, I guess you guys have finally convinced me. Phillip must be right about the continued 20% growth per year (down from the 50% plus recently). So, that means I can double my money every 4 years. Cool. I just went out and borrowed all I could against my primary residence and my second home in Florida with an interest only loan based on LIBOR that will adjust every month. I'll come down tomorrow and buy a place in Seaside, Watercolor and Rosemary. I can't lose. :clap_1: :blink: :shock: :( :idontno: :eek:

[Travel2Much]

I would reconsider if I were you. You sound pretty overextended already. :eek:

Actually, add "safety" to the values of Walton county. This is my first extended time here and it continually amazes me. Like, people don't lock their bikes! Imagine that.

[skier]

Why reconsider, this is a no risk deal. Prices are going up, up, up. I'll make money hand over fist. Can't wait. :D

[Travel2Much]

Well, since making money hand over fist appears to be one of the important things in your life, go to it! :D Good luck!

[Bob]

Why reconsider, this is a no risk deal. Prices are going up, up, up. I'll make money hand over fist. Can't wait. :D Ok folks, You've got your intangible, let's just call this stock over here an apple...then you have land, improved and unimproved...good ole mother earth, dirt if you will ,...let's call that oranges. One Skier, is nothing but speculation. Always was and always will be. It's such BS speculation that the news readers every night pull a random piece of news to fit their reasoning as to why the NASDAQ or Dow Jones went up or down on any given weekday. Pure unmitigated, BS speculation. Land, on the other hand has many uses, one of which is speculation. There are thousands of SoWal owners enjoying their investments today without any thought as to what will happen to ten year Treasury yields. Not everyone is speculating,and the market is too fundamentally strong to be tipped over by flippers.

[skier]

Main Entry: spec·u·la·tion
Pronunciation: "spe-ky&-'lA-sh&n
Function: noun
: an act or instance of speculating : as a : assumption of unusual business risk in hopes of obtaining commensurate gain b : a transaction involving such speculation

Bob,

As you can see from the MW dictionary above, the definition of speculation would definitely include buying stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, silver, oil, etc, etc. There are real estate speculators, stock market speculators, etc. A stock, while it is an intangible, believe it or not, it actually grants you an ownership interest in a real live operating company. You have folks that speculate in stocks and then you have long term investors. Do you think that the folks that invest in utility stocks are speculating? Certainly not. They are typically investing in a real live business for the long haul to receive a dividend stream and more than likely get their principal back way down the road. On the other hand, if you buy Google today at a market cap of over $70 billion, I would say you are moving toward the speculating end of the spectrum. Similar to the stock market, the real estate market has both speculators and investors as you appropriately described above. Tangible or intangible, investing is investing, speculating is speculating.

Both markets can get overstimulated and both can crash. As others have said, stock markets can crash very quickly. On the other hand, real estate markets don't move quite as quickly due to the nature of the beast. Stocks can trade minute by minute. Homes usually take months and months to change hands and the transaction costs are much higher. So, they don't move as fast up or down typically. But, again, both can crash.

[landlord]

One person on this board seems like those people who short stocks and spend their time on yahoo stock message boards trashing the stock that they are currently shorting. I rarely post on those boards,yet i am puzzled by the amount of time and energy devoted to arguing against a stock and its fundamentals.
Anyway I miss the objective of running down the value of south walton values on a board that is intended for people who love sowal and come here to ...

[landlord]

Continued... anyway, it is tiresome on this type board to endure this negativity. but it is America so bash away!
I am a professional real estate investor with commercial properties in 9 states, but i have little interest in coming home and trying to deride my fellow posters over how their sowal investment is going to heck in a hand-basket. i, for one, dont know how values will perform in the future. and i for one am not concerned about it one way or the other.
let's talk about what we love about soway. There. I said it . Sue me.

[OnMackBayou]

Landlord, I agree with you. This thread is getting frayed, I'm afraid.

[skier]

landlord,

Yikes--I assume you are referring to me. Sorry I offended you but I'm simply sharing my thoughts on the market just like others are sharing their opposing views. The world would be a very dull place if everybody thought the same way. Fortunately, we don't live in China, Iran, or other places that tend to stomp out dissenting points of view. Instead, we live in America where healthy debate is a part of our culture.

I've never shorted a stock and never will. However, I do try to call things as I see them. I am only offering my opinion, that's all it is. I might be wrong, I might be right. Time will tell. I certainly don't think my opinions are going to cause "run down the value of RE in SoWal". There are way to many economists (including fed governors) and others talking the same way about real estate bubbles in overheated markets.

This board is called the real estate board and that is what we are discussing. If you want general interest, go to the general forum.

However, as a professional real estate investor, you probably know what you are doing and can spot bull and bear real estate markets. For those not as astute as you that tend to follow the latest trend whether it be in stocks, bonds or real estate, a healthy dialogue could be very beneficial. Get them thinking rather than following the herd before jumping into the market. Maybe you should share what you are doing locally? Are you currently buying loads of properties in Rosemary, Seaside, Watercolor, Draper Lake, Redfish Village, Adagio, Watersound, Seacrest, etc.? Or, are you sitting on the sidelines or buying elsewhere? Not sure how good your credentials are, but if you are successful at what you do, I would sure like to hear your opinion.

[skier]

Mack,

I never heard back from you re: buying my place at a 29% discount to the house in Seaside that just sold for $1700 per square foot.

By the way, if you and landlord don't like the debate, you don't have to review this or any other thread.

[OnMackBayou]

This thread is supposed to be about Alys Beach. For those who are interested in Alys Beach I would assume they want to hear facts about what is happening there.

[Smiling JOe]

Are you currently buying loads of properties in Rosemary, Seaside, Watercolor, Draper Lake, Redfish Village, Adagio, Watersound, Seacrest, etc.?
I'll take one of each, please. ...NOT! ... But that is me, and I already live here. Skier, you are right. "Healty" dialog is always a good thing. I think you make some valid points, while at the same time, you make some statements which are painted with a very broad brush and do not necessarily define this market. You still have not commented on my question asking you to comment on the difference between this local market as opposed to the entire RE market of the USA. Do you wish to comment?

By the way, I love the quote by :idontno: (I cannot remember), who stated, "always question all authority all the time."

It is healthy to listen to both sides, but I wish you had some other people on your side addressing other points of your side of the bubble bursting. We must remember that while we will read valid points regarding each side, we all have egos which hate to be beaten upon.

[landlord]

i own a few homes for my family's use. i am not interested in "investing" in sowal real estate to make money.
i am ceo of a private reit(and a non-practicing r.e. attorney) that owns commercial properties around the country.
i do not have a dog in your fight. i merely think that you are using alot of your personal energy arguing about the state of the market in sowal and sometimes the discussion sounds a bit strained. perhaps you don't realize how it sounds to others.
i respectfully request that you and i not engage in a back and forth about this topic. i do not have the energy nor the interest. thank you for respecting preference. good luck.

[OnMackBayou]

Skier, my name is Alan Woodard. Please e-mail me the legal description of your property, along with any other info you can provide. My e-mail address is assetmgsrv@aol.com. As I have explained, I will pay for two appraisals and we will average them. If the property fits the criteria I outlined, I will be glad to pay 71% of that figure for your property.

[Smiling JOe]

Do I need to break up this sandbox scwabble? Discount? Think premium. He speaks with his actions, not his words. I think we all know that the skier will only sell if he can get a ridiculusly high price. He is like the other overly priced sellers in the area who really don't care about selling, but if ... blah,blah,blah.

[FoX]

Mack,

I never heard back from you re: buying my place at a 29% discount to the house in Seaside that just sold for $1700 per square foot.

By the way, if you and landlord don't like the debate, you don't have to review this or any other thread.

That was the list price. Not sure what the selling price is but probably close enough. Another one went under contract today in Seaside that was listed at a bit over $1,100/sf.

If you think $1,100/sf for your house is crazy - maybe you ought to list it.

[Cavallino]

Let's get this thread back on Topic!!!
I believe it is entitled 'Let the bidding begin...Alys Beach'
Here are the results of the sealed bid process from a reliable source...

Fact #1 - It was a sellout
All Lots were sold during the sealed bid process

Fat #2 - Premium
The Lots were sold at an average 4% premium over minimum bid price.

Since the minimum bids on these lots were priced at a highest level to begin with......it appears to me that this result is indeed evidence that the upward trend is continuing.

I hope this is helpful.

Doug

[FoX]

Let's get this thread back on Topic!!!
I believe it is entitled 'Let the bidding begin...Alys Beach'
Here are the results of the sealed bid process from a reliable source...

Fact #1 - It was a sellout
All Lots were sold during the sealed bid process

Fat #2 - Premium
The Lots were sold at an average 4% premium over minimum bid price.

Since the minimum bids on these lots were priced at a highest level to begin with......it appears to me that this result is indeed evidence that the upward trend is continuing.

I hope this is helpful.

Doug

Thanks Doug. I figured as much. 4% as an average - I'd be curious to know what the highest margin was.

I bet last spring that margin might have been a lot higher.

Can you tell us who your source is and/or how are they connected with the project?

[OnMackBayou]

Thank you for getting this back on point.

I find your information interesting and informative.

[Cavallino]

Sorry I don't have details on the markup on each individual lot offering.

I was glad to see the 4% overall premium considering the prices they were asking and the small lot sizes. This release definitely sets up another high point on lot valuation.

I would prefer to not name the source of the results. But welcome anyone to correct the facts if they find out differently.

Just trying to be helpful with respect to all this bubble bursting talk lately. I do not believe the bubble is bursting.....but I do believe we are seeing a slowdown in the appreciation velocity rate. Frankly....this is a good thing as last years appreciation rates were simply unsustainable.

Doug

[landlord]

Cavallino, Thank you for your informative and fact-based post. I agree with your assessment and am glad for the ebsco folks.

[Newcomer]

Cavallino, Thank you for your informative and fact-based post. I agree with your assessment and am glad for the ebsco folks.


Agreed with Landlord - the overall speculation has been daunting to say the least but IMHO values in places like Seaside, Rosemary Beach, Watercolor and her sister projects and Alys Beach will retain their value and hopefully see modest gains because there continues to be a real demand for the area and the more discriminating buyers shall be just that.

[skier]

Skier, my name is Alan Woodard. Please e-mail me the legal description of your property, along with any other info you can provide. My e-mail address is assetmgsrv@aol.com. As I have explained, I will pay for two appraisals and we will average them. If the property fits the criteria I outlined, I will be glad to pay 71% of that figure for your property.

Alan,

Thanks for the offer. However, I don't think I would get a fair shake from your brothers Larry and Larry. However, if you will allow me to use my friends Guido and Sal to do the appraisals, we might be able to strike a deal.

Seriously, as you will note in my previous posts, I am not looking to unload. Instead, if I can sell for a high price, I'll take it. I'm not interested in selling at a discount. Joe hit the nail on the head in terms of where I stand on selling except that my price would not be "ridiculously high" only at the top end of the recent sales prices of homes in very close proximity to mine.

You guys are taking all of my opinions way too hard. They are simply my opinions, just like yours. I respect your point of view, but obviously, I disagree. Can't we simply disagree???

By the way, you won't have to deal with any more posts from me for a while. I head out on vacation this afternoon :clap_1: and won't really get back into town for 4 to 5 weeks. Won't be doing any internet surfing while on vacation. Most of my time will be spent in Florida. So, if you see me slithering around, please only throw tomatoes or eggs--no rocks please.

[Smiling JOe]

Agreed with Landlord - the overall speculation has been daunting to say the least but IMHO values in places like Seaside, Rosemary Beach, Watercolor and her sister projects and Alys Beach will retain their value and hopefully see modest gains because there continues to be a real demand for the area and the more discriminating buyers shall be just that.
While I am not buying in Seaside, I do think it has strong potential to grow. Seaside is about to change the way in which most non-Seaside-residents see it. Have you guys seen the plans. When you drive down 30-A three years from now, you will not recognize Seaside town center.

[RiverOtter]

By the way, you won't have to deal with any more posts from me for a while. I head out on vacation this afternoon :clap_1: and won't really get back into town for 4 to 5 weeks.

You must not work for "The Man" like I do :biggrin:

[Smiling JOe]

Alan,

By the way, you won't have to deal with any more posts from me for a while. I head out on vacation this afternoon :clap_1: and won't really get back into town for 4 to 5 weeks. Won't be doing any internet surfing while on vacation. Most of my time will be spent in Florida. So, if you see me slithering around, please only throw tomatoes or eggs--no rocks please.
:floor: Have a great vacation skier. Good for you for getting away from it all. You shouldn't encourage the gallery to throw things, unless they are throwing offers your way.

[iqueequeg]

Alys Beach prices seem out of whack to me. The lowest priced lot in the recent release was $785,000, a lot well north of 30a and fairly distant to the beach, with only an 18 month build out. Comparing apples to apples as much as possible:

http://www.peggygeppert.com/property.htm (scroll down)

$850,000 for a Watersound lot south of 30a, much easier walk to the beach, community further along.

Or;

http://rosemarybeach.com/realestate/homesites_listings.asp?search=3,All

3 Rosemary lots, priced $750,000 to $825,000, north of 30a, but in a community much further along than Alys Beach.

In my opinion, preconstruction is cheaper for a reason. There is the uncertainty as to whether the infrastructure will actually turn out to be what they say it will be (although EBSCO is a reputable company), plus you have to deal with all the construction nuisance (both yours and your neighbors).

I think Alys Beach is going to be nice, personal opinion of course, but if you accept that appreciation for the next couple of years is going to be flat, I think that if you’re interested in Alys Beach you’re better off letting someone else build, then buy a resale in 3 years.

I just wanted to add kudos to Kurt. I'm another lurker, but I must say this is the best run (and generally most civil) discussion board I've ever seen.

[Travel2Much]

I live near Alys Beach and ride by there many times of late They are making amazing progress on it. Absent the condos at Watersound, they probably have more houses going up than at Watersound, or nearly so. I am beginning to "get" the Alys concept now that I can see the houses going up. When I saw their plans I was completely unable to see it.

While I don't like the architecture for my personal use, I can see the attractions. They have this really neat "compound" concept you can't build anywhere on 30A, so multi-generational families or even multi-families can live there separate or together (how's that for targeting the wealthy retirees looking to establish the family estate?--great idea). The downtown looks interesting. There is an international magazine shop that should be opening soon. The beaches on 30A east are substantially less crowded, and there is less traffic (subtract contractors in pick-ups, here).

So, close to Rosemary, first-mover on an innovative community, high end intellectual flair, the design factor. Lots to say for it for buying in. Also, some people might not want to live in a St. Joe community.

As a neighbor and a person who doesn't like flipping as a conceptual or economic matter, I am glad with the short build-out times. That is consistent in my view with things other people have said that these folk want to build a quality community, not just make piles of money.

Plus, their web site blisses me out.

[STL Don]

Let's get this thread back on Topic!!!
I believe it is entitled 'Let the bidding begin...Alys Beach'
Here are the results of the sealed bid process from a reliable source...

Fact #1 - It was a sellout
All Lots were sold during the sealed bid process

Fat #2 - Premium
The Lots were sold at an average 4% premium over minimum bid price.

Since the minimum bids on these lots were priced at a highest level to begin with......it appears to me that this result is indeed evidence that the upward trend is continuing.

I hope this is helpful.

Doug

I had the same nformation concerning lot sales.