Hurricane Predictions 2006

[Smiling JOe]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/images/promos/hurr2006/hurrisk.jpg

from accuweather.com

[TooFarTampa]

I know that is good news for us, but it is still creepy and scary. :creepy:

[Smiling JOe]

Let me state that I am not putting any weight on accuweather's prediction map.

[InletBchDweller]

I was going to post this but did not....I also was wondering the accuracy of this..:idontno: (would be nice though)

[Smiling JOe]

I was going to post this but did not....I also was wondering the accuracy of this..:idontno: (would be nice though)Nice is all relative. I am sure that people on the east coast of the US and the folks on the east coast of TX do not think this map is nice.

Also, what does "low" probability mean? -- Only 1 major storm hitting our area?

[TooFarTampa]

I guess it's time to check in daily with Dr. Masters' blog over at Wunderground. :wub: He's no Mike Bettis :D , but I just love the fact that he is a weather geek who can explain things to the masses. His entry on May 11 regarding the upcoming season was very interesting.

Dr. Masters' blog (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=353&tstamp=200605)

At least it looks pretty good for those of us concerned about the rental season, but those Gulf temps could ruin things with a tropical storm or two. I'm not only concerned about the rental season, of course, but it would be nice to have a quiet summer.

[Donna]

This is an interesting map and is consistent with the CO hurricane guru's forecast for 2006. The unfortunate thing is that all the high probability areas are near major population centers. A strong storm in the Houston area would be very destructive, with LA on the strong eastern side. And the bigger hurricanes along NC's Outer Banks change the entire landscape and ecosystem. Although parts of New England are shown as high probability, the cooler Ocean temps in that area portend less intensity in storms, 1938 nothwithstanding.

I think we should all stay prepare and remain mindful that in the worst hurricane season (2005) in recorded history, we did not have loss of life or tremendous damage on the FL Panhandle.

And the insurance companies should stop using these forecasts of things that have not even happened yet as an excuse for jacking their prices up or, worse, cancelling the coverage of some. Jeb Bush, where are you on the subject of these corporate misdeads? :rofl:

[goofer44]

if accu weather is correct in their forecast, this could be a very very possitive event for real estate in sowal and also for ST JOE stock. it is worth a little speculation to buy some common stock. if wall street accepts this forecast, the stock will be bought in anticipation of a mild hurricane season where st. joe's has development property. just a hunch. buy a bunch !!















st. joe

[Smiling JOe]

Goofer, you must think that if a Cat 4 strikes the TX coast, which has a high probability on this chart, that no damage will occur here. :idontno:

[Donna]

Actually, the huge and powerful Ivan came ashore at the AL/FL state line (80 miles west) and delivered us some punch and storm surge. Dennis came into Pensacola (60 miles west) and created some damage. But I don't think a storm along the TX coast (400 miles west) would deliver more than some beach erosion due to high surf. Not to underestimate the impacts of that, mind you. A couple of healthy tropical storms could accomplish the same thing. But nothing like the destructive force that occurred along the Alabama, Mississippi, Lousianna coasts or even in Pensacola. Two entirely different dynamics. SJ, I assume you are thinking in terms of beach erosion.

So far as following forecasts, can anyone deny that 3/4 of the men in American would follow TWC meteorologist, Stefanie Abrams into the eye of a Cat 5 storm? My husband would follow Stef or Rachel Ray anywhere!

[Smiling JOe]

Actually, the huge and powerful Ivan came ashore at the AL/FL state line (80 miles west) and delivered us some punch and storm surge. Dennis came into Pensacola (60 miles west) and created some damage. But I don't think a storm along the TX coast (400 miles west) would deliver more than some beach erosion due to high surf. Not to underestimate the impacts of that, mind you. A couple of healthy tropical storms could accomplish the same thing. But nothing like the destructive force that occurred along the Alabama, Mississippi, Lousianna coasts or even in Pensacola. Two entirely different dynamics. SJ, I assume you are thinking in terms of beach erosion.

So far as following forecasts, can anyone deny that 3/4 of the men in American would follow TWC meteorologist, Stefanie Abrams into the eye of a Cat 5 storm? My husband would follow Stef or Rachel Ray anywhere!

Absolutely I am talking about beach erosion. It was beach erosion that took off 35 ft of people's back yards in Blue Mtn Beach and Seagrove. Storm surge will remove millions of dollars of sand placed in front of seawalls as well as cause further damage to those properties without seawalls. Surely you guys know the potential effects of beach erosion, especially if we get more than one storm to our west.

[Donna]

As I recall hurricane activity over the years, we had very few direct hits but sometimes had beach erosion and storm surge if a storm made landfall to the west of us. Usually, this meant a landfall anywhere from Pensacola to the western edge of the AL coast. Almost every year, a hurricane would move in somewhere west of us. If a hurricane hit LA or TX, we typically had high waves but not much damage, if any. We had beach erosion, but the beaches repaired themselves over the next year, typically. No one paid that much attention to it, because that was simply the pattern of storms and the beach erosion didn't move anything around but sand. Not many people had storm surge because they weren't that close to the water. And beach houses were so casual that the water flowed in and then it flowed out...so what, if you weren't there for the event?

What is different now? If you look at historic photos of our area, you will notice that most of the older homes were built further away from the water's edge and they did not have these big decks or dune walk-over structures. Most of the time, we accessed the beach by trundling down the road to a public access. Most had no walkovers because there was a break in the dunes where one could walk onto the beach. Now we have the dunes eroded to create building sites, older homes expanded to twice their size by a huge cantilevered deck, and every single Gulf front house has a structure with stairs and landings, patios, etc. And the latest horror: seawalls. When we have storms, these things are the first to go and they take out a lot of the dunes with them.

I am just saying that beach erosion isn't anything new, but the preoccupation with property rights and values is something that didn't concern people that much during the old history of the South Walton beaches. There were no gated communities and it would have been perverse for someone to argue about another beach person walking across their property on a trek to or along the beach. What we did have in abundance was 30-ft. sand dunes that people never built on or dozed aside to create building pads, practically a forest of sea oats and other vegetation holding the dunes intact, and few people insured their beach houses. They owned them outright and lived with the idea of hurricanes and yes, the occasional rebuilding project.

A person would have been laughed at for putting in a swimming pool, a fireplace, or a seawall or building a house in a palmetto swamp or having a Surroundsound system or Plasma tv set at a beach house. We had black-and-white box sets with terrible reception, crinkled tinfoil on a set of rabbit ears. In short, we appreciated the beaches and didn't try to own them or build right on top of them. We didn't think of beach erosion as loss of property value, because we didn't think of the beaches as ours in an individual sense. And we didn't worry about whether all the tourists would stop coming if we had beach erosion. Of course, we would come back because that's what we did in the summer. We didn't go for the sand. We went for the experience and the company.

What I am saying is that nature hasn't changed...we have. While I enjoy many of the amenities the beaches offer today, along with the creature comforts of our home, sometimes I really miss the old days and the old values (as opposed to property values). :( I'll bet you would, too SJ, because you are obviously a very old soul.

[Smiling JOe]

...
What I am saying is that nature hasn't changed...we have. While I enjoy many of the amenities the beaches offer today, along with the creature comforts of our home, sometimes I really miss the old days and the old values (as opposed to property values). :( I'll bet you would, too SJ, because you are obviously a very old soul.

I would like to take a vacation there. Again, tell me how to get there. :funn:
Thoreau wrote in Walden, something along the lines of, man seems to have improved machines and systems over the years, but hasn't seemed to improve himself at all.

[SlowMovin]

In those days there was a lot of undeveloped land and not as many people who wanted it.

As more people discovered they liked it here, the price of the land began going up. As the price went up, so did the potential for making profits, so more and more of it was developed and more and more people learned about it and wanted what was left and the prices went further up and...

...I think you all know how the story goes from there.

But how will it end?

[Smiling JOe]

In those days there was a lot of undeveloped land and not as many people who wanted it.

As more people discovered they liked it here, the price of the land began going up. As the price went up, so did the potential for making profits, so more and more of it was developed and more and more people learned about it and wanted what was left and the prices went further up and...

...I think you all know how the story goes from there.

But how will it end?I don't guess that we could get lucky enough for it to go back to the days of the past where no one had any interest in owning land where you couldn't grow crops.

[iwishiwasthere]

Most likely not, but it is funn to dream of that.

[Paula]

[QUOTE=Donna]And beach houses were so casual that the water flowed in and then it flowed out...so what, if you weren't there for the event?



Donna: I just love this statement! Well said and I like that kind of thinking. As for your book that you're thinking about, this kind of story and writing is perfect! Being at the beach should give a person perspective, and your writing does.

[pgurney]

I guess it's time to check in daily with Dr. Masters' blog over at Wunderground. :wub: He's no Mike Bettis :D , but I just love the fact that he is a weather geek who can explain things to the masses. His entry on May 11 regarding the upcoming season was very interesting.

Dr. Masters' blog (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=353&tstamp=200605)

At least it looks pretty good for those of us concerned about the rental season, but those Gulf temps could ruin things with a tropical storm or two. I'm not only concerned about the rental season, of course, but it would be nice to have a quiet summer.

Gulf temps are now back to normal. :clap_1:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=95362&pid=1186203&st=0&#entry1186203

[TooFarTampa]

Most likely not, but it is funn to dream of that.

No it is not. There are lots of people worried about the potential "peak oil" crisis, in which oil production no longer can meet worldwide demand, and our economy begins to collapse. There are various doomsday scenarios but there are actually people out there looking for land and learning how to farm because the theory is that fuel will be so expensive that only local produce will be practical. Then our entire economic system, which depends on oil to move smoothly, blows up and money no longer has value, so the only thing that equals power is food production. :blink: So people start stealing their neighbors' lettuce and stuff. Anyway, if that happens people won't be driving to the beach. :blink: (Not that I believe in the doomsday scenario, but I do think that getting our use of fossil fuels under control should be an immediate priority, if not an emergency. Sorry for the tangent.)

Pgurney: Thanks for that good news about the gulf temps! :)

[krafty]

I am just saying that beach erosion isn't anything new, but the preoccupation with property rights and values is something that didn't concern people that much during the old history of the South Walton beaches.

In short, we appreciated the beaches and didn't try to own them or build right on top of them. We didn't think of beach erosion as loss of property value, because we didn't think of the beaches as ours in an individual sense.
What I am saying is that nature hasn't changed...we have. While I enjoy many of the amenities the beaches offer today, along with the creature comforts of our home, sometimes I really miss the old days and the old values (as opposed to property values). :(

I can't believe the changes I've seen in only the 6 short years that we've been vacationing there in Oct. I can only imagine what it was like in the old days. We come from a place that's decidedly uncrowded and peaceful. I remember feeling that same peace the first few visits to SoWall, but the pace of activity has most definitely picked up since then. I read with interest the different viewpoints concerning development of the area. Change is inevitable, but I just hope the unique local charm will not be lost forever.

[Smiling JOe]

This morning, I hear that scientists are saying that we may need a Cat 6. :shock:

[jdarg]

This morning, I hear that scientists are saying that we may need a Cat 6. :shock:

Need? Why?

[Smiling JOe]

Need? Why?because of global warming, the storms we have seen in the past could be the old norm. The Hurricane Larry, which hit Australia a couple of months ago, would have been a Cat 6 if they had that category.

[peapod1980]

The Today Show did a piece on the 2006 hurricane season this morning and said 60% of people living in the hurricane zone have no plan or supplies for riding out another hurricane. In hopes of encouraging people to prepare, Florida has lifted sales tax on hurricane survival supplies. Did make me wonder, though, what exactly falls into this category--I'm assuming not nonperishable food, though that could certainly be a necessity. :idontno:

[Smiling JOe]

The Today Show did a piece on the 2006 hurricane season this morning and said 60% of people living in the hurricane zone have no plan or supplies for riding out another hurricane. In hopes of encouraging people to prepare, Florida has lifted sales tax on hurricane survival supplies. Did make me wonder, though, what exactly falls into this category--I'm assuming not nonperishable food, though that could certainly be a necessity. :idontno:


FYI - raw groceries are not taxed in Florida anyway, so you can buy canned food items untaxed year round.

Items included in this week's tax relief include:


Flashlights and portable, self-powered light sources — $20 or less
Portable radios, two-way radios and weather-band radios — for $50 or less
Flexible waterproof sheeting (tarps) — $50 or less
Gas or diesel fuel containers — $25 or less
Batteries — $30 or less
Non-electrical food storage coolers — $30 or less
Portable generators — $1,000 or less
Carbon monoxide detectors — $75 or less
Storm shutter devices — $200 or less
Cell phone batteries — $60 or less
FYI - Home Depot is offering an additional discount of 7.5% for these items this week.
More details here (http://www.myflorida.com/dor/news/news042706.html).

[Donna]

What category storm was Larry when it went ashore in Australia? Hurricanes almost aways reduce velocity significantly before they make landfall. If they are Cat 5 out at sea, they typically reduce to a strong Cat 3 by landfall. Mind you, that's not to underestimate the damage associated with a strong Cat 3. Since most of the damage is caused by storm surge, the actual size of the storm is as important as the wind velocity (which also creates storm surge). Ivan covered the entire Gulf of Mexico and had a huge storm surge. Opal was a large storm with very high velocity, yet it stalled out at sea before making landfall, so storm surge wasn't as bad as predicted. Still, Opal washed away the old Conch Out cottage and porch furniture from Wash-a-way was floating in "downtown" Grayton after the storm.

It will be interesting to see if the predictions are accurate for this year. People who attempt to predict earthquakes in CA are totally disregarded. Of course, their predictions never come true. Even the psychics have a better track record and they are not very accurate, either.

[Smiling JOe]

What category storm was Larry when it went ashore in Australia? Hurricanes almost aways reduce velocity significantly before they make landfall. If they are Cat 5 out at sea, they typically reduce to a strong Cat 3 by landfall. Mind you, that's not to underestimate the damage associated with a strong Cat 3. Since most of the damage is caused by storm surge, the actual size of the storm is as important as the wind velocity (which also creates storm surge). Ivan covered the entire Gulf of Mexico and had a huge storm surge. Opal was a large storm with very high velocity, yet it stalled out at sea before making landfall, so storm surge wasn't as bad as predicted. Still, Opal washed away the old Conch Out cottage and porch furniture from Wash-a-way was floating in "downtown" Grayton after the storm.

It will be interesting to see if the predictions are accurate for this year. People who attempt to predict earthquakes in CA are totally disregarded. Of course, their predictions never come true. Even the psychics have a better track record and they are not very accurate, either.

From this link (http://watthead.blogspot.com/2006/03/northeast-australia-hit-by-category-5.html):
"Cyclone Larry made landfall near Cairns, Queensland, with winds of up to 180 mph (290 km/hr). Larry reportedly flattened sugarcane fields and banana crops, ripped roofs off houses and uprooted trees in a 300km-wide swath (186 miles)."

If Cat 6 is set with windspeeds = or > 175mph, Larry would have been a Cat 6 when it hit land. :shock:

Larry was at one time reported to be the second strongest hurricane ever recorded. I am not sure if it surpassed number one in stregth.

[Donna]

Mercy! That is some scary stuff, SJ. Let's hope that Larry was an freak.

I took the hurricane test on AOL today and had a perfect score. And that's way, way too much Weather Channel in 2004/2005.

[DD]

[QUOTE=Donna]And beach houses were so casual that the water flowed in and then it flowed out...so what, if you weren't there for the event?



Donna: I just love this statement! Well said and I like that kind of thinking. As for your book that you're thinking about, this kind of story and writing is perfect! Being at the beach should give a person perspective, and your writing does.

^^^^^What she said!

[hi n dry]

NOAA PREDICTS VERY ACTIVE 2006 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

highlights below:

The main uncertainty in this outlook is not whether the season will be above normal, but how much above normal it will be.

"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher,"

Warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are the factors that collectively will favor the development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's building cloud structure.

This confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere is strongly related to a climate pattern known as the multi-decadal signal, which has been in place since 1995. Since then, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two below-normal seasons during the El Niño years of 1997 and 2002.

Although we expect a very active hurricane season during 2006, we are not forecasting a repeat of last year’s record season at this time. This is partly because the tropical Atlantic SSTs are not presently as warm as we saw last year at this time.

Also, a combination of conditions led to the record 2005 season. Some of those, particularly an amplified upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S., long periods of suppressed convection near the date line, and exceptionally low pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean Sea region, are simply not predictable at this time.

Another factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane seasons is ENSO (Gray, 1984. El Niño favors fewer hurricanes and La Niña favors more hurricanes. Based on the most recent ENSO outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the tropical Pacific through much of the Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore, ENSO is not expected to impact this hurricane season.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm

[diamondmax]

Thanks accuweather ...:pissed:!!

[Smiling JOe]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/images/promos/hurr2006/hurrisk.jpg

It is rather interesting that the lowest risk area for Hurricanes, according to this map, is thepath of the first strike by a storm this season. :scratch:

[Cil]

I had remembered that map and was thinking the same thing, SJ.
http://deephousepage.com/smilies/conf40.gif

[TooFarTampa]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/images/promos/hurr2006/hurrisk.jpg

It is rather interesting that the lowest risk area for Hurricanes, according to this map, is thepath of the first strike by a storm this season. :scratch:

Accuweather. :roll: Not.

[TooFarTampa]

I know I am always pimping my local paper, but this is a really interesting explanation of the Bermuda High and how it helps steer storms. It's the most easy to read piece I've been able to find yet -- and I've done lots of google searching on the subject -- and it comes with a graphic that made me go :doh:

Now I get it.

Bermuda High explained (http://www.sptimes.com/2006/06/11/Weather/Steer_hurricanes_This.shtml)

[Cil]

Thank you for sharing that article, TooFar.
I liked the descriptions: "like pushing in the side of a marshmallow."
Metaphors like that help me more easily understand. ;-)

[SlowMovin]

Here's something interesting NASA had to say about the Bermuda High...

In 2004 and 2005, the Bermuda High expanded to the south and west, pushing storms into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. But as of May 31, 2006, the Bermuda High remained small and in a position that would steer storms up the East Coast of the United States or out into the Atlantic.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17292