Hurricanes for 2006

[Smiling JOe]

Nothing from official storm agencies, but listening to long-time locals who are always out on the Gulf, they are in strong belief that we may be due for some major storms this year due to the Gulf not cooling down much this winter. Gulf temps right now are around 64F degrees, and have not been much colder this winter.

This coupled with the predictions from NOAA and its peeps, could spell for rough seas this season. It would not suprise me to see a named storm before the start of the official season (june 01) this year.

Knowing the threat of storms, what will you be doing differently this year than last? Did anyone learn anything from last year's storms? Will you folks with rental units have your property managers do anything different regarding rentals, eg- refunding deposits if renters are displaced from storm, will Prop. Mgt actually communicate with the renters keeping them posted of the actual property damage if occured?, etc.

Me? I may pack up and actually head out if the storm approaches anywhere close by.

[SHELLY]

Have plywood and shutters at the ready

Bought generator and chainsaw

Beginning of season fill up 5 5-gal gas cans (add gas stabilizer)

Have a radio "walkman" and batteries available

"Reservations" on hold with friends in Georgia.
(in exchange for visits to the beach)

Gas up the vehicles when a storm is forcasted to enter the gulf

Keep BBQ gas tanks topped up

Purchase extra water and nonperishables at beginning of season.

Pack up document box at beginning of season.

When the panhandle enters the "cone of uncertainty" watch others panic while you enjoy a quiet day at the beach.

[Donna]

We are arranging to have an able-bodied local guy sign on to do storm prep, instead of entrusting it to housekeeping. He will secure all windows and outdoor furniture/BBQs, the pool area, and even put up plywood if needed. Plywood is a major pain and then has to be removed and holes filled, painted, etc. Unless there is say, a strong Category 3 storm headed right for the area, it really doesn't accomplish much. The more important thing is to get possible flying objects away from contact points with glass windows or doors. If we were in store for a Category 4 or 5 direct hit (perish the thought), I wouldn't even bother. Would be like a Band-aide on a shark bite.

A funny aside about hurricanes. When I was 6 years old and living in Ft. Walton Beach, we waited out a hurricane and our house was actually below sea level in elevation. The family gathered in a back bedroom with a radio and a lantern and an ice chest filled with food and soft drinks, the bathtub filled with water, and books, puzzles, etc. During the storm, there was a huge crash and my father ran into the dining room to find that a silver platter had sailed right through the plate glass window. It was one that I had confiscated from my mother's kitchen to play in the sand with and it had been lost in the sand in our back yard for months. As she looked for that platter in vain, I had never admitted having taken it outside, of course. I will always remember the look of amazement on my mother's face upon discovering that platter, a wedding gift in my father's hands. She looked stunned, looked out that window and actually said, "Thank you."

Trip insurance is always good to have, but the vacationers have to make the arrangements themselves. This would have to be done by one person in the party renting. It is only a little over $100 and is good for both the renter and owners. Renters are not refunded with our company unless there is a mandatory evacuation of the area. My husband and I have started getting trip insurance for extended trips, particularly those out of the country, because we both having aging parents and you just never know. It's a particularly good idea for an area that experiences hurricanes. I think owners have to request that their management companies provide insurance brochures to renters, because people aren't otherwise motivated to pursue this.

What I am doing differently is watching less of The Weather Channel, which has become increasingly sensationalist. I was incensed at a recent program on TWC, "It Could Happen Tommorrow," about a Category 5 hurricane hitting New York City. Geez...like a Cat 5 is going to roar in out of the chilly northern Atlantic waters. Give me a break. Keep in mind, that with all the truly awful storms of the 2005 season, we had little or no damage at South Walton but for dune erosion. Not to minimize the importance of that, but everyone needs more perspective on the situation, in general.

[SHELLY]

Keep in mind, that with all the truly awful storms of the 2005 season, we had little or no damage at South Walton but for dune erosion. Not to minimize the importance of that, but everyone needs more perspective on the situation, in general.

Full-time residents must take the threat of hurricanes more seriously than folks who simply own investment property in the area. During the hurricanes of the last couple years the TV was full of images of people who were woefully unprepared who said "we've had hurricanes before and we never had THIS kind of damage." The insurance companies love to prey upon folks who don't do anything to mitigate damage to their properties.

[Just_In_Thyme]

An interesting site.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/Rank.htm

Doesn't bode well for PC Beach according to this guy. Maybe it will wipe out all of those preconstruction condos Shelly has been harping about.

[ShallowsNole]

Prep so far at my home:

Minimizing the food in our freezer to what we are expecting to eat in the next 2 - 3 weeks. This goes against everything I was taught growing up (food for the winter!). I will also not buy 50 lbs of shrimp from the boats in Freeport each June as I have done in the past. It sure was painful (and stinky) to lose it all after Ivan. :puke:

Pet travel food bowls and disposable litter boxes are ready, as are plans for which pets go where and with who. Also, for once, I have access to a brick home 40 miles inland. :clap_1: I will not stay down here during a storm (if for no other reason than I do not want to be "cut off").

Perhaps the biggest change is in our home organization. No longer do many things get stored in our large filing cabinet. All important documents and back-ups of my Quicken files are ready to go at a moment's notice.

Finally, we are about to switch cell phone providers. Nextel was down for well over a week after Ivan, and our home phone was out as well. Alltel stayed up. We had just switched to Nextel. Boo. :pissed:

[Donna]

Shelly, it is in the insurance company's best interest for all people to adequately protect their homes. I must tell you that our insurance claim after Ivan was excellent---paid in full and a check in hand before the charges came through on our charge card. And our agent handled everything beautifully. I know there are differing stories. But the key to working with insurance companies is to be thorough and straightforward at the time the claim is filed and to follow instructions. Our agent and our company actually called to thank us for making our claim easy for them to process. It takes time, but it can be done. And not everyone is on the take, after all. It's a business. While I recognize that having one's primary residence in harm's way is worse than having a vacation home threatened, you really should consider how someone feels from afar. It is sad to go to sleep at night, wondering if your cherished vacation home and all its memories will be standing at daybreak. And perverse to go to Google Earth to see if your home is awash in storm surge. (My eternal thanks to Smilin' Joe for sparing us that indignity.) What great neighbors we have, which leads to my next thought.

We will always have people who are unprepared and/or uninformed with natural disasters. They are not stupid, just human. Your post's final point, i.e. watching Panhandlers panic while you enjoy a day on the beach as the storm approaches, is disheartening. If I'm squared away in the advance of a storm and my neighbors are in need of help, guess where I'm going to be? And I'll finally get to meet you, because you're probably going to be the only person standing there alone and gloating on the beach. We get back what we put into this world. I'm starting to better understand your cynicism. You are nothing if not consistent. Geez...what a life; what a wounded spirit. :(

[beachmouse]

I was incensed at a recent program on TWC, "It Could Happen Tommorrow," about a Category 5 hurricane hitting New York City. Geez...like a Cat 5 is going to roar in out of the chilly northern Atlantic waters.

In the past 100 years, the New York City area has taken worse hurricane damage than Tampa Bay has. It takes a pretty specific set of circumstances for that to happen (the right storm in about early September when SSTs are relatively high) but when it does, you get the Long Island Express, part 2, which is going to be pretty ugly.

My sister in Queens carries flood insurance because of that possibility, and also refused to buy a place close to the south shore of Long Island because the surge maps there put so much under water, even with a light category 1 or 2 storm.

[Paula]

I do the same things everyone has said they do with their homes, pretty much. We bought one story cottages so it would be easier to put up plywood on the windows. We pay someone to do it for us and bring the person chocolate after the storm as well because we really do appreciate the fact that we have someone to count on and to patch and paint window frames ourselvs after the plywood comes down. Our rental agency puts the things on our porch inside the cottages.

I make sure that we have plenty of flashlights in the cottage, extra batteries, and battery-run radios. I'd also like to get those wind-up radios from LL Bean -- some of them even charge cell phones, not that they would necessarily work.

I want our guests to leave or to not come down if there was any risk they'd be in harms way. I'd work out the rent/etc., with them one way or the other. I wouldn't put my family in harms way and I wouldn't expect anyone else to do so, either.

Like Donna, I think it was amazing that we had several people willing to take photos and let us know how our places did -- among these wonderful people were Smiling Joe, Kurt, Camp Creek Kid, and others. We do indeed have wonderful neighbors who look out for each other.

I'm interested in knowing if the people who will have access to the area after a hurricane (if it's a nasty one that cuts off power for a while) will have ways of communicating with each other (e.g., CB radios, or whatever people use to communicate with each other). Heck, I'd be willing to chip in to help buy several sets of high-quality communication stuff for people who will be there after a storm because those will be critical in helping people know how their places/friends/family are doing, helping people out, getting the place up and running again, etc.

Also, let's say a worse case scenario happens. All the bridges are out and those of us who live far away want to get to our places. How would we do it? Would we launch boats from somewhere to get to our places? (seriously, this is something I think about).

Frankly, I honestly think many of the people on this message board could become the most organized and dependable disaster relief if needed. And if I could get there, I'd be willing to be one of these people.

[TooFarTampa]

In the past 100 years, the New York City area has taken worse hurricane damage than Tampa Bay has. It takes a pretty specific set of circumstances for that to happen (the right storm in about early September when SSTs are relatively high) but when it does, you get the Long Island Express, part 2, which is going to be pretty ugly.


You're jinxing us beachmouse. :bang: :bang: I usually enjoy your posts, but exnay on the ampa bay tay. :bang:

Currently our hurricane plan is to evacuate to SoWal if one comes here. :bang: It seems physically impossible for both places to get the same hurricane. :idontno:

Still trying to figure out the plywood thing. We have no storage at our Seacrest house (no garage), so whoever put up plywood for us would have to purchase it, cut it to fit and then hang it. I'd rather have it figured out beforehand and have someone store it for us just in case. Any ideas on that front?

[TooFarTampa]

Shelly, it is in the insurance company's best interest for all people to adequately protect their homes. I must tell you that our insurance claim after Ivan was excellent---paid in full and a check in hand before the charges came through on our charge card. And our agent handled everything beautifully. I know there are differing stories. But the key to working with insurance companies is to be thorough and straightforward at the time the claim is filed and to follow instructions.


Even if you are thorough and communicative and calm, it may not help. We had a claim from Ivan that was a nightmare to process. Thanks to Citizens, we had to wait FOUR months just to get an adjuster out to even LOOK at the house. Ultimately they paid everything but our deductable, but it was a really stressful situation. Apparently the original adjuster assigned to us just decided not to worry about our case, and Citizens couldn't do anything because the guy had taken off. When I tell you I called these people two or three times a week for four months, it is not an exaggeration.

The problem is that in major hurricane landfall areas, there are not enough qualified people working for the insurance companies. We got very unlucky in that regard.

[SGB]

Still trying to figure out the plywood thing. We have no storage at our Seacrest house (no garage), so whoever put up plywood for us would have to purchase it, cut it to fit and then hang it. I'd rather have it figured out beforehand and have someone store it for us just in case. Any ideas on that front?

If you don't have too many windows, you might want to consider getting accordian style hurricane shutters installed on your house. They are easy to close and lock and there is no storage required. We had these installed on our 3 story beach house a year ago and we're very glad we did. They can be expensive, but they paid for themselves after a couple of hurricanes. It was physically impossible for us to board up the top 2 stories of our house and had to hire someone to do it for Ivan. Expensive to put plywood boards up, expensive to get them down. Never again.

[Paula]

How much do they cost and where does one get them?

[SGB]

How much do they cost and where does one get them?

We used Charlie of Panhandle Hurricane Shutters. His cell is 850-596-7861. He lives in Seagrove and is very knowledgeable. Charlie's prices were better than the other shutter place we talked with. I've seen several new places advertise lately in the paper. We thought the shutters would be very ugly on the house, but you don't really notice them. If I find the invoice, I'll post the price of a standard window.

[Donna]

We had a quote from Charlie for the Plantation-style shutters for our house and it came to about $45,000. :eek:

[yippie]

No one has mentioned things like garbage cans, gas grilles and little trinkets on your porch.

I know through the hurricane season of 2005, the home next door to mine which is a rental, never had anyone take care of the "small" things.

I found myself going over and taking the things that could become propelling missles down and securing them. But my biggest delima was their garbage cans and gas grilles. What was I to do to protect my home?

I purchased extra bungee cords and tied all their gas grilles and garbage cans together after I moved them to the east side of their house to prevent them from "blowing" into my yard and pool. Then secured them to their porch railings on that side of the house.

Bungee cords can be so useful. And they can be used to secure outdoor furniture to trees, etc.

[iwishiwasthere]

A suggestion I saw from the tv was to put your important documents and photos on a flash drive. Then when you have to leave a place due to weather, they are with you. I thought it would be good for anyone to have since you never know whether fire or tornado will be a problem. The jump drive could be stored in a bank box or kept somewhere safe. May the predicitions be overstated and the gulf have a calm season.

[ecopal]

I am just glad that we live on 30A which has the highest elevation coastal property south of Maine including all the east coast and Gulf coast.

The Atlantic coast from New York south is all primarily low lands and extremely vulnerable to storm surge and tsunamis. In addition, most structures there have not been built to hurricane standards.

In comparison to south Florida not only do we have higher elevation here but a greater proportion of our structures are newer and thus built to the updated hurricane codes.

Also, we have somewhere to run to when a hurricane comes. The problem with living in south Florida is “where do you go?” and” how do you get out through the grid lock?” if a “big one” is coming.

Hooray we are on 30A!

[30A Skunkape]

Here are some tips from a Katrina refugee (displaced 5 months):

Prior to the storm:Stay calm. Radar and satellites give us plenty of time to do what we need to do. Fill the cars up with gas and fill a suitcase with clean clothes for at least four or five days. Make sure all your prescriptions are filled;if not, call your doctor's office and let them know you want three or more refills phoned in to the pharmacy. Keep a list of your meds in your wallet at ALL TIMES! (As a doctor in post Katrina NOLA I am telling you that "the little pink one for my pressure" is NOT good enough-physicians generally have NO CLUE what your pills look like)! Get plenty of pet food for your pets. I have a portable file for my important documents; they are therefore always at my side and I never forget to copy anything, pack anything, etc. Pay attention to what Max Mayfield is saying-he is the real deal and not prone to start rumors or predict doom like the local networks/Fox/CNN/MSNBC tend to do(unless he REALLY thinks you ought to move!). Charge your cell phones. If you do not have text messaging on your phone, get one that does. I remained in contact with people in NOLA via texts when voice capacity was weeks away from being normal. Let people know where you are going. One cool thing to do is to start a Yahoo or Google group and get as many people in your community or family to join-this is a GREAT way to stay up to date on what everyone is doing. Also-PLEASE HEED THIS ADVICE-EMPTY YOUR REFRIGERATOR! Anything in there will spoil, and I do mean everything. The resulting rot is unimaginable-flies, maggots, the awful oozing humor of decomposition-if you want to save your fridge-EMPTY IT!

During the Exodus-Stay calm, be patient and remember that everyone is in the same boat. In thick traffic courtesy is contagious! You ought to have brought a little ice chest with drinks and snacks as well as antacids, pepto, tylenol...whatever you might need.

After the storm-Give the people who stayed behind a chance to regroup. Everyone has a natural instinct to flock back home after the skies clear, but this is a mistake. Wait. Relax. Return only after the local authorities say it is OK. Even then, realize everybody will be jamming the roads trying to get in;cars overheat and gas lines are inevitable. Don't attempt to drive back in until you are certain you can pass on the roads and fill your car with gas once you get there. One thing I have come to learn-if all your stuff was demolished, the debris field will be waiting for you. You might as well wait until you know you can get a good look and then BE ABLE TO DRIVE AWAY and not be stuck with an empty gas tank. If you need to deal with FEMA or your insurance, get a small notebook and document, document and document further who told you what when and what the proper follow-up is.

I really do hope we have a quiet season this year :roll:

[Paula]

These are all such useful suggestions. Another piece of advice I heard was to have your prescriptions filled at places like Walgreens or CVS or other chains that would keep your prescriptions online so you can refill them anywhere you go.

[steele mama]

Boy JO, you opened a can of worms! I feel kind of bad for not even thinking about hurricanes. We did loose our dock once but it was safe last season when all the docks in western lake were gone. If we were right on the beach we would certainly be thinking ahead.

PS WHERE IS MY CARPOOLER!!! IT IS 5:40 ON FRIDAY AND I AM GOING TO SEE FAILURE TO LAUNCH TONIGHT!!!! :pissed:

[Excalibur]

Smiling Joe has a good point about the water temps. And it is not just on the surface temps, it is warm deep below as well. Let's all hope for the best.

I have a strong feeling that we will be impacted this year by a Hurricane :( and I am also concerned about the New Orleans area getting hit again.:blink:

[TooFarTampa]

One thing that seemed to be remarkable about the last two hurricane seasons, aside from the unusually high number of storms and the mind-boggling power of them, was the direction they headed. Most of the major storms impacted the Gulf region or the east coast of Florida. I have read that was because of the so-called Bermuda High (and I can't explain what that is) being placed differently than it is most years, centered farther south and west I believe? The placement of the Bermuda High was largely responsible for WHERE the storms went, or so say those who know such things.

I've read online predictions from scientists who say that the Bermuda High is very unlikely to be in the same place for this hurricane season, and we usually get that figured out sometime in the spring. So perhaps we'll get more storms on the Atlantic side. That's what I'm hanging onto, anyway.

But yes, if the Gulf is warm that means we are likely to see storms form in it, ala Wilma. I am clinging to the knowledge that even with a major hurricane -- with the very notable exception of Katrina -- the damage is usually very focused around a small area. There are thousands of miles of coastline. It stinks to be in the 20-mile radius, but at the same time, the odds of that happening in any one place are pretty slim.

[Smiling JOe]

But yes, if the Gulf is warm that means we are likely to see storms form in it, ala Wilma. I am clinging to the knowledge that even with a major hurricane -- with the very notable exception of Katrina -- the damage is usually very focused around a small area. There are thousands of miles of coastline. It stinks to be in the 20-mile radius, but at the same time, the odds of that happening in any one place are pretty slim.

Tell that to the people whose homes fell off the dunes, or lost 35ft of there back (or is it front) yard along the coast. I am guessing that you are refering mostly to wind and water penetration damage, but our beaches took a pounding, most all of the walkovers along 30A ended up in Oyster Lake and Lake Stallworth, and many tourists were displaced and their vacations disrupted. All of this, and I think the closest hit was Pensacola-ish?

[TooFarTampa]

Tell that to the people whose homes fell off the dunes, or lost 35ft of there back (or is it front) yard along the coast. I am guessing that you are refering mostly to wind and water penetration damage, but our beaches took a pounding, most all of the walkovers along 30A ended up in Oyster Lake and Lake Stallworth, and many tourists were displaced and their vacations disrupted. All of this, and I think the closest hit was Pensacola-ish?

Point well taken, SJ. I saw it and have dealt with the consequences, believe me. Thanks to some bad luck, we had water damage throughout all three stories of our house after Ivan. But it is fixed now. Walkovers can be rebuilt (at great cost and bother of course). What does scare me in regards to the beach is what will happen to all those seawalls "buried" under sand if a major hurricane comes by. I am just trying to think positively here regarding infrastructure and major damage. I do feel for those who had to shore up their homes along the gulf; I just don't know what can be done about it because the ocean just won't be tamed. It is what it is, as they say.

[Smiling JOe]

What does scare me in regards to the beach is what will happen to all those seawalls "buried" under sand if a major hurricane comes by. They may have our beaches looking like the Beaches of Normandy. If they do end up partially buried scattered across the beaches, it won't be pretty.

[Beach Runner]

There was a big hailstorm in GA the week after Christmas while were at Seagrove. We returned home to find our roof destroyed and our daughter's SUV almost totalled. We still are in line for an appointment to get the roof fixed and the car repaired. We were on a wait list to be called to get on a wait list for repairs. The hail repair companies are still in town and busy, and the storm was in late December. I have a new appreciation for what a long wait it would be to get an adjustor after a hurricane.

[Beach Runner]

I found myself going over and taking the things that could become propelling missles down and securing them. But my biggest delima was their garbage cans and gas grilles. What was I to do to protect my home?


I did the same thing. What good is it to secure your house if your neighbors don't? So I did exactly what you suggested. I put chairs in pools, secured garbage cans, etc.

Oh, yes, and turn off the icemakers in your fridge and dump out the ice, as well as emptying it out. You should defrost any refrigerator that needs it and unplug it. Unplug all electonics.

In case of a storm, I will try my darndest to help keep you informed. Email me at beachrunner@earthlink.net. My website (which is brand new and stinks right now because I'm focusing on my professional and restaurant websites) is http://home.earthlink.net/~beachrunner/ . I will post whatever I can. I have a T-mobile Aircard and dialup access to a server in GA (which I can dial from my cell phone in my car) and Sprint DSL access, as well as Charter access in GA, so between all of those, I should be able to upload info to my website and check my email.

Let's just pray to God that we don't end up, well, I can't talk about it.

[Miss Kitty]

This is such an informative thread. I'd really rather stick my head in the sand when thinking about hurricane season, but appreciate all the sound advice.

:clap_1: BR! I applaud your offer.

[Paula]

BR: What a great quote on your website. Hah! Thanks for the offer. I keep frequent fliers in my account so that I can fly down after a hurricane to check on things. I was able to do that after Ivan and 2 others (can't remember the names).

No one answered my question about how someone would get to SoWal if the bridges were down. Anyone have any ideas? Better of flying into Valparaiso or Panama City. I really these may seem like dumb questions for those of you very familiar with the area, but I just don't have a sense of the roads/bridges/routes. I always just get to the cottage and think only of the porch, pool, beach, restaurants, family and friends, etc.

[Smiling JOe]

BR: What a great quote on your website. Hah! Thanks for the offer. I keep frequent fliers in my account so that I can fly down after a hurricane to check on things. I was able to do that after Ivan and 2 others (can't remember the names).

No one answered my question about how someone would get to SoWal if the bridges were down. Anyone have any ideas? Better of flying into Valparaiso or Panama City. I really these may seem like dumb questions for those of you very familiar with the area, but I just don't have a sense of the roads/bridges/routes. I always just get to the cottage and think only of the porch, pool, beach, restaurants, family and friends, etc.Well, if you have a boat north of the Bay, you could launch on Black Creek River and drive over to Magnolia Beach s/d, and walk about 3.7 miles to Grayton Beach.

[Paula]

Well, if you have a boat north of the Bay, you could launch on Black Creek River and drive over to Magnolia Beach s/d, and walk about 3.7 miles to Grayton Beach.

Thanks. Any other routes or suggestions for getting to our places on 30A? I'm quite the planner and like to plan for worst case scenarios. Frankly, there are many people on this board who would rise to the occasion should it become necessary. The more ideas we give people who want to help after a hurricane, the better off (and safer) everyone will be. Ideally, we won't have to use the plans, but it's good to have them. Officials will do what they can do in a crisis, but individuals and groups are better off being ready to take action as well.

[Smiling JOe]

Thanks. Any other routes or suggestions for getting to our places on 30A? I'm quite the planner and like to plan for worst case scenarios. Frankly, there are many people on this board who would rise to the occasion should it become necessary. The more ideas we give people who want to help after a hurricane, the better off (and safer) everyone will be. Ideally, we won't have to use the plans, but it's good to have them. Officials will do what they can do in a crisis, but individuals and groups are better off being ready to take action as well. There are many potential routes by water to get to SoWal. You could even put a boat in West Bay (PCB) and shoot up the Intercoastal, take a left turn on Peach creek and get out at Hwy 98, but your boat had best be small.

[Paula]

There are many potential routes by water to get to SoWal. You could even put a boat in West Bay (PCB) and shoot up the Intercoastal, take a left turn on Peach creek and get out at Hwy 98, but your boat had best be small.

Sounds like I'll need to get out a good map when I'm down there and work through the different routes with someone who lives locally. Maybe I'll learn to fish and get to know the different waterways.

[Cork On the Ocean]

If you don't have too many windows, you might want to consider getting accordian style hurricane shutters installed on your house. They are easy to close and lock and there is no storage required. We had these installed on our 3 story beach house a year ago and we're very glad we did. They can be expensive, but they paid for themselves after a couple of hurricanes. It was physically impossible for us to board up the top 2 stories of our house and had to hire someone to do it for Ivan. Expensive to put plywood boards up, expensive to get them down. Never again.

Need to check with your HOA regarding allowable types of shutters. We just approved a metal roll down shutter on am home at Seacrest Beach because it was only on the front door and pretty well hidden from the street when rolled up. All the others had to be wood so double check.

[Paula]

Need to check with your HOA regarding allowable types of shutters. We just approved a metal roll down shutter on am home at Seacrest Beach because it was only on the front door and pretty well hidden from the street when rolled up. All the others had to be wood so double check.

Thanks, Cork. I know our community must approve all shutters and I'm not sure the metal ones will be allowed. Don't know if I'd really do shutters anyway. We'll see how the next few hurricane seasons go and how hard it is to find someone to put up plywood when we need it.

[yippie]

Thanks. Any other routes or suggestions for getting to our places on 30A? I'm quite the planner and like to plan for worst case scenarios. Frankly, there are many people on this board who would rise to the occasion should it become necessary. The more ideas we give people who want to help after a hurricane, the better off (and safer) everyone will be. Ideally, we won't have to use the plans, but it's good to have them. Officials will do what they can do in a crisis, but individuals and groups are better off being ready to take action as well.

The Mid-Bay Bridge into Destin usually opens fairly quickly. Also the Phillips Inlet Bridge into Inlet Beach.

However, Walton County is famous for closing part of the beach roads after hurricanes until the access the damage, and they are "guarded" by the Sheriff's office. The only people allowded through are owners, so be ready to prove you are the owner of a home. Maybe a few utility bills, tax bill, bring something that can link your name as an owner or you will be turned away.

[Beach Runner]

What I worry about is getting *out* of there before the storm. For obvious reasons, we like to wait as long as possible before boarding up. After boarding up for Katrina, we had decided to stay. But then we heard that all bridges were closing soon because the winds were getting close to 40 mph and that there would be no way out. So, as exhausted as we were from just finishing the laborious task of boarding up, we decided to leave. We didn't want to get trapped.

Is it true that there is no way out of SoWal by car when the winds get to 40 MPH because all bridges are closed and there's no route that doesn't involve a bridge?

[Smiling JOe]

What I worry about is getting *out* of there before the storm. For obvious reasons, we like to wait as long as possible before boarding up. After boarding up for Katrina, we had decided to stay. But then we heard that all bridges were closing soon because the winds were getting close to 40 mph and that there would be no way out. So, as exhausted as we were from just finishing the laborious task of boarding up, we decided to leave. We didn't want to get trapped.

Is it true that there is no way out of SoWal by car when the winds get to 40 MPH because all bridges are closed and there's no route that doesn't involve a bridge?Walton Co bridges close when sustained winds reach 40mph, and believe me, you do not want to be on the bridge or causeway when the wind is blowing that strong. It is like going through a car wash which has a strong blow dryer, except you will be swerving all over the place. I think the midbay bridge closes when winds reach 50mph, but you will have much traffic to fight through, so by the time you reach it, it may be closed due to higher wind speeds -- a gamble that I, personally, would not take. The best thing to do in order to avoid traffic, gas lines, running out of gas, getting trapped, etc, is to evacuate prior to the mandetory evacuations.

[Paula]

Thanks about the reminder to bring copies of some bills. We are indeed property owners and would want to assess damage asap.

Also, the precautions about staying off windy bridges makes a lot of sense. We have a long bridge in upper Michigan and every few years someone driving by car is blown off. One person/car was never found again.

[Donna]

Paula, as you know the bridges close after the wind increases to over 45 mph gusts and that means everything south of Highway 20 is cut off from the rest of the County. Your best bet for an airport is probably Panama City (fewer bridges to navigate than from Ft. Walton Beach or Pensacola). But that is no guarantee that they will let you in if there is significant damage. I should give you my brother's cell phone number. He is a Walton County elected official and can always get past evacuation barriers. I will PM you. He is also a very good source of information during and immediately following storms, because he's part of the emergency volunteer effort and so part of the Countywide communications network.

Right before Hurricane Dennis and after the evacuation was in place, an emergency Chelco worker was on the beach at Grayton and noticed the housekeeper/storm prep crew ( :roll: ) had left an unprotected upper window wide open. He knew the house was ours, so called my brother, who thankfully drove down and closed the window and took care of a few other problems (BBQ grill left right in front of a plate glass window). In fact, we have retained a local able-bodied man to do storm prep for us this year. I just don't think that housekeeping is a good choice for this task. My goodness...they have to drive in from somewhere in or near Alabama and why would someone do this when a storm is on the way? Feeble efforts, at best.

I am dismayed that we are already thinking about hurricanes that are probably six months away. The best we can do is to be prepared and hope that our luck holds. I recall very few instances where hurricanes made a direct hit in South Walton throughout my FL childhood. In fact, Opal and Ivan are the only two really problematic ones that I can recall. Most of them tend to move consistent with their counterclockwise movement towards the AL/MS/LA coast, unless there is a strong high moving in from the NW that guides them due north from the Gulf. There is no way of knowing. Just stay prepared to the extent that you can from a distance, and remember the season of 2005, which was a record-setting year but also a year that we had little or no property damage. The beaches will renourish themselves, if we can just leave Mother Nature alone. The sea walls and plastic tubes are a very ill-advised effort at mitigating storm surge damage.

We have resolved for 2006 to be prepared and to hang in there, both from the standpoint of storms in the Gulf and in the market! :biggrin:

[John R]

i was able to navigate freely before, during, and after all of last season's hurricanes. ymmv.

jr

[Smiling JOe]

I bring it up only to see if everyone kind of wings it still, or to see if they have learned any useful tips that may help others to decide how to prepare, just in case. We are only 3.5 months away from the start of Hurricane season and this is the time to plan the what ifs, not a week before it gets here.

[30A Skunkape]

I bring it up only to see if everyone kind of wings it still, or to see if they have learned any useful tips that may help others to decide how to prepare, just in case. We are only 3.5 months away from the start of Hurricane season and this is the time to plan the what ifs, not a week before it gets here.

There is a staff physician who (worked) in the ER at Charity Hospital in New Orleans who wore a badge on his coat that said 'no accidental learning'. That was in reference to patient management, but I think it is totally appropriate when making plans for hurricane season. :D

[Beach Runner]

Thanks SJ for the info.

I wish I remembered the name of the thread that recorded our experiences during the mandatory evacuation before Katrina. I, for one, could learn a lot from re-reading it. Actually I think there were two main threads on the topic if my memory serves me correctly (which often it doesn't - LOL). I've searched but can't seem to find it. I searched for my old posts, but the search didn't return anything before December, yet I've been on the board since July (and maybe before ;-) ).

[Smiling JOe]

Thanks SJ for the info.

I wish I remembered the name of the thread that recorded our experiences during the mandatory evacuation before Katrina. I, for one, could learn a lot from re-reading it. Actually I think there were two main threads on the topic if my memory serves me correctly (which often it doesn't - LOL). I've searched but can't seem to find it. I searched for my old posts, but the search didn't return anything before December, yet I've been on the board since July (and maybe before ;-) ).For some reason, I seem to recall that only the last 500 or 1000 posts of a user are kept in the system.

[Beach Runner]

For some reason, I seem to recall that only the last 500 or 1000 posts of a user are kept in the system.
I see. Thanks.

[Paula]

Paula, as you know the bridges close after the wind increases to over 45 mph gusts and that means everything south of Highway 20 is cut off from the rest of the County. Your best bet for an airport is probably Panama City (fewer bridges to navigate than from Ft. Walton Beach or Pensacola). But that is no guarantee that they will let you in if there is significant damage. I should give you my brother's cell phone number. He is a Walton County elected official and can always get past evacuation barriers. I will PM you. He is also a very good source of information during and immediately following storms, because he's part of the emergency volunteer effort and so part of the Countywide communications network.

Right before Hurricane Dennis and after the evacuation was in place, an emergency Chelco worker was on the beach at Grayton and noticed the housekeeper/storm prep crew ( :roll: ) had left an unprotected upper window wide open. He knew the house was ours, so called my brother, who thankfully drove down and closed the window and took care of a few other problems (BBQ grill left right in front of a plate glass window). In fact, we have retained a local able-bodied man to do storm prep for us this year. I just don't think that housekeeping is a good choice for this task. My goodness...they have to drive in from somewhere in or near Alabama and why would someone do this when a storm is on the way? Feeble efforts, at best.

I am dismayed that we are already thinking about hurricanes that are probably six months away. The best we can do is to be prepared and hope that our luck holds. I recall very few instances where hurricanes made a direct hit in South Walton throughout my FL childhood. In fact, Opal and Ivan are the only two really problematic ones that I can recall. Most of them tend to move consistent with their counterclockwise movement towards the AL/MS/LA coast, unless there is a strong high moving in from the NW that guides them due north from the Gulf. There is no way of knowing. Just stay prepared to the extent that you can from a distance, and remember the season of 2005, which was a record-setting year but also a year that we had little or no property damage. The beaches will renourish themselves, if we can just leave Mother Nature alone. The sea walls and plastic tubes are a very ill-advised effort at mitigating storm surge damage.

We have resolved for 2006 to be prepared and to hang in there, both from the standpoint of storms in the Gulf and in the market! :biggrin:

Thanks, Donna. This is all very helpful. I like to plan and plan and plan and then not worry about things much once I've done all my planning (after all that, it's out of my hands for sure). So, that's what I'm doing on this thread. And you and others have been very helpful!

Now, I'd like to know the best way to communicate if a hurricane takes down all the phones lines and cell phone towers. Any suggestions? :cool:

[30A Skunkape]

For some reason, I seem to recall that only the last 500 or 1000 posts of a user are kept in the system.

On the main SoWAl general discussion page click on #12 for archived threads. I did this earlier today and all the Katrina talk is there. Pretty spooky to read it in retrospect. :shock:

[Beach Runner]

On the main SoWAl general discussion page click on #12 for archived threads. I did this earlier today and all the Katrina talk is there. Pretty spooky to read it in retrospect. :shock:
I'm tired, so I'm being dense again. All I see is this (http://home.earthlink.net/~beachrunner/archive.jpg) at #12. Did I go to the wrong place?

[30A Skunkape]

I'm tired, so I'm being dense again. All I see is this (http://home.earthlink.net/~beachrunner/archive.jpg) at #12. Did I go to the wrong place?


Try this, it worked when I tried it before, hope it does now too.

http://www.sowal.com/bb/forumdisplay.php?f=4&page=12&sort=lastpost&order=&pp=50&daysprune=-1

[Beach Runner]

Try this, it worked when I tried it before, hope it does now too.

http://www.sowal.com/bb/forumdisplay.php?f=4&page=12&sort=lastpost&order=&pp=50&daysprune=-1
YESSSSS! I see some of the old threads. Gotta re-read them.
Thanx!

[Donna]

Just a note about boating into areas after a hurricane...this is not a good idea. The bridges and roads reopen once it is safe. Having the area closed off to all but owners after a storm goes a long way towards protecting your property. But all the waterways are filled with debris, a lot of it not necessarily visible to boaters. If you value your boat, I would not try to take into those waters after a storm. I am always horrified to watch children wading in flood waters during storms. Not only is there a hazard related to water quality, but a large piece of debris can easily sweep a little person (or a big one) off their feet into swiftly running waters.

[Smiling JOe]

Just a note about boating into areas after a hurricane...this is not a good idea. The bridges and roads reopen once it is safe. Having the area closed off to all but owners after a storm goes a long way towards protecting your property. But all the waterways are filled with debris, a lot of it not necessarily visible to boaters. If you value your boat, I would not try to take into those waters after a storm. I am always horrified to watch children wading in flood waters during storms. Not only is there a hazard related to water quality, but a large piece of debris can easily sweep a little person (or a big one) off their feet into swiftly running waters.

...and there is nothing you can really do to your home anyway without the roads being open and power being restored, etc.

[Paula]

Good advice, Donna and Joe. I'll heed your warning. I'm still a hurricane novice... though we just had our first spring tornado watch in Michigan. We get about 3 a year. We were expecting up to 60 mile an hour winds (isn't a category 1 hurricane 70 miles an hour?) but it seems to have passed and we have sunny skies -- 60's today and expecting 30's tomorrow. But I'm going to be in Sunny San Diego anyway for a few days...

[Beach Runner]

...and there is nothing you can really do to your home anyway without the roads being open and power being restored, etc.
But it's similar to waiting for results for a serious matter from a doctor's office - you want to know just to relieve the anxiety of not knowing, but there might be nothing you can do (except, like in my husband's case, get your chest sawed open).

We always drive down ASAP after a storm. With the high insurance deductibles, we're anxious to know if we have any damage or are totally screwed.

[Paula]

I've been there the day after both hurricanes (Ivan and whatever hurricane there was last summer) and was relieved to see the cottages and the area and beaches for myself. I remember after Ivan that someone on this board said "Seacrest Beach is gone" and there were photos of the water up to the dunes. So, I had a knot in my stomach until I could see if for myself. I waited until 2 days after I got there, poured myself a glass of wine, walked to the beach, and then was so relieved to see the beach that I got teary-eyed as I watched the sunset. Even though the dunes were now cliffs, all the beach stairs were scattered along the beach, the sand was black, I was just so happy that we had a beach at all! And over time the wood and debris was cleaned up, a lot of the fluffy white sand came back, and the beaches (except for the dunes) started looking pretty normal again (I think by February the beach looked quite nice). I think the photo on this message board taken right after the storm must have been of the surge or something because it sure did look like the beach was gone.

I feel quite confident that all will be fine in most cases with the cottages, but I also need to get a first-hand look at the beaches and area because renters will want to know what's ahead of them in the coming weeks and I like to say that I was there and send them photos and tell them where they can get access to beaches. Of course, if it's a massive hurricane and no one can get it, I'd wait until it was safe and officials can do their jobs.

But, as you said, I like to know my options in case they're needed. Planning ahead has helped me manage some tough situations.

[Smiling JOe]

...I remember after Ivan that someone on this board said "Seacrest Beach is gone" and there were photos of the water up to the dunes. ...
Wasn't me, but my reports are very matter of fact like that. Perhaps I should use a bit more tact when giving those stomach wrinching reports.

[Paula]

I remember being somewhat in shock. I realized "what will be, will be" but thinking we lost our beach sure made me sad. Many people (like me) really don't understand anything about coastal living until they experience it for a while. So, we can't read between the lines or predict how things will turn out (like storm surges go away, the beaches renourish themselves and white sand comes back, coastlines change with beaches getting bigger and smaller with each storm, sand bars coming and going). Boy, I don't think anyone was as thrilled and happy as I was to see a battered up beach! I remember wishing the kids were with me to see what happens to a beach after a hurricane. What an education!

[Donna]

Although there isn't a lot of good news related to hurricanes, here are a couple of things to remember that may assuage your fears. First, even the strongest Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane almost always slows down to a Cat 3 before it makes landfall. Second, the new construction is much stronger and able to withstand winds. Third, look at how many old homes exist up and down the beaches of South Walton. They've survived far more storms intact that we will ever see in this lifetime. And yes, Paula...the beaches replenish remarkably quickly. I was stunned on our recent visit to Grayton to see all the fluffy white sand and that the beaches are about four feet higher than before the 2005 storm season. This is nature's ebb and flow, and even the hurricanes have a purpose. And a sweet note here. We are happy to announce the existence of two mourning dove eggs in a sweet nest on our third floor decks. The painter is taking great care to leave them undisturbed, as he has a pair nesting in an old go-cart helmet at his house!

Again and for newcomers to this Web site, we have amazing good samaritans among us. The morning after Ivan, Kurt called us (when no one could get across the Bay Bridge) to tell us that our house was fine...soggy, but fine. And post-Dennis, Smilin' Joe sent us a photo of Ye Olde Conch Out so we could see that she was still standing.

I will share a helpful hint to those of you who are at risk for storm surge. If you put sandbags next to the house, particularly near low windows, sliders, or other doors, and also line the inside of doors and windows with plastic sheeting attached with duct tape (up and down the doorjam, mind you)...it works!!! My brother did this for us when Dennis was approaching and it worked great. I had asked someone else about doing this and was told, "I could probably get some bags, but I wouldn't know where to get the sand." Duhhhh? Duct tape---miracle cure for the 2000s. :clap_1: My engineer husband carries a duct tape wallet that I bought for him at The Zoo Gallery.

[TooFarTampa]

But it's similar to waiting for results for a serious matter from a doctor's office - you want to know just to relieve the anxiety of not knowing, but there might be nothing you can do (except, like in my husband's case, get your chest sawed open).

We always drive down ASAP after a storm. With the high insurance deductibles, we're anxious to know if we have any damage or are totally screwed.

This is an excellent analogy BR.

I also would like to add, based on experience, that immediate water extraction is key, which is why people need to know of damage right away. Houses built in the past 5-10 years are more airtight than ever, and when water sneaks into the walls in such houses, it becomes a perfect environment for mold.

Thanks to our Ivan issues, we already have an "in" with a water extraction guy. I called him several times last year to make sure his cellphone was working and that he would take my calls if we needed him to come dry us out again. :roll: :funn: :bang:

[TooFarTampa]

Here's a very informative article about the upcoming season. Some more bad news, but a little bit of hopeful news near the end:

Get Ready to Hunker Down (http://www.sptimes.com/2006/03/13/Tampabay/Get_ready_to__hunker_.shtml)

[30A Skunkape]

Just gotta be ready, what else can we do? :idontno: :pissed:

[Smiling JOe]

This is an excellent analogy BR.

I also would like to add, based on experience, that immediate water extraction is key, which is why people need to know of damage right away. Houses built in the past 5-10 years are more airtight than ever, and when water sneaks into the walls in such houses, it becomes a perfect environment for mold.

Thanks to our Ivan issues, we already have an "in" with a water extraction guy. I called him several times last year to make sure his cellphone was working and that he would take my calls if we needed him to come dry us out again. :roll: :funn: :bang:

I hear you loud and clear, but unless you bring the generator and the shop vac and fans while you eat canned tuna for a week or more, the water removal ain't gonna happen.

[TooFarTampa]

I hear you loud and clear, but unless you bring the generator and the shop vac and fans while you eat canned tuna for a week or more, the water removal ain't gonna happen.

True about the lack of power -- I had forgotten, it took a number of days, maybe almost a week, for Water Extraction Guy to get his machines in and hooked up. But if Water Extraction Guy is put on speed dial and can get in there once it is safe, he can tear out damaged drywall and nasty, gloppy moisture-sucking insulation and at least get the process started.

Of course if a tree falls on your house or storm surge chops it to pieces none of this matters anyway. This info is probably only useful if a door blows in or windows take a beating but the rest of the structure is generally sound.

[Uncle Timmy]

2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast from Dr. Gray:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/dec2005/

A part of the conclusion:

"We should interpret the last two years of unusual large numbers of U.S. landfalling hurricanes as natural but very low probability years. During 1966-2003, the U.S. hurricane landfall numbers were substantially below the long-term average. In the last two seasons, they have been much above the long-term average. Although the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons have had an unusually high number of major landfall events, the overall Atlantic basin hurricane activity has not been much more active than five of the recent hurricane seasons since 1995 (i.e., 1995-1996, 1998-1999, 2003). What has made the 2004-2005 seasons so unusually destructive is the higher percent of major hurricanes which moved over the U.S. coastline. These landfall events were not primarily a function of the overall Atlantic basin net major hurricane numbers, but rather of the favorable broad-scale Atlantic upper-air steering currents which were present the last two seasons. It was these favorable Atlantic steering currents which caused so many of the major hurricanes which formed to come ashore.



It is rare to have two consecutive years with such a strong simultaneous combination of high amounts of major hurricane activity together with especially favorable steering flow currents. The historical records and the laws of statistics indicate that the probability of seeing another two consecutive hurricane season like 2004-2005 is very low. Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane US landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005."

[Donna]

Well, it is nice to see a different perspective on the 2006 season, at least. Who knows what this season holds and for what reasons? Informed minds may disagree. I think it's foolhardy to be too Pollyannaish after what we've been through the past year. On the other hand, I lived in that area my entire life and we never saw a single hurricane season like 2005 or even close to that. And I'm not a recent high school graduate, friends.

Between our discussions of the real estate market and hurricane predictions, that painting of all the dogs sitting around the poker table comes to mind. My real concern is that we are a society too quickly to assume the worst and embrace fear as of late. The events and political dynamics of the past few years have brought us to this, I expect. But Americans are famous for their fearlessness. If those folks in New Orleans can believe enough to rebuild, why we can certainly believe that things might be different this year. Chicken Little politics are so tedious. :rofl:

[Miss Kitty]

Once again.... Bravo Donna! Do what you can and stop wringing your hands over the uncontrollable. BTW....I work on this almost everyday myself!!

[Sandcastle]

Once again.... Bravo Donna! Do what you can and stop wringing your hands over the uncontrollable. BTW....I work on this almost everyday myself!!

I’ll second that. I spent most of last week at the beach meeting with people trying to come up with ways to protect out French doors, tower room windows, etc. I looked at everything from impact-resistant film, to shutters, to hurricane panels, etc.

Every solution seemed to present another potential problem. I finally bought some 5” stainless steel sliding bolts at Franks to secure the free side of our French doors to the door jam. I’ll probably buy some aluminum panels to cover the first floor doors and windows on just the east side of the house. Most of our trees have been bent from east to west by the recent storms and all of our screen damage has been on the east side.

After that, I’m going to forget it.

[Smiling JOe]

Every solution seemed to present another potential problem. I finally bought some 5” stainless steel sliding bolts at Franks to secure the free side of our French doors to the door jam. I’ll probably buy some aluminum panels to cover the first floor doors and windows on just the east side of the house. Most of our trees have been bent from east to west by the recent storms and all of our screen damage has been on the east side.

After that, I’m going to forget it.What type of trees do you have that are leaning from the wind? Palms? :idontno:

[Sandcastle]

Our loquat tree and fig tree are bent at close to a 45 degree angle. Some of the small pines also took a hit from the east. I had to replace a lot of screens on the east side of our wraparound porch, but the south and west sides were OK. Of course, if I protect only the east side of the house the next hit is bound to come from another direction.

Also the company that provided an estimate for impact-resistant film suggested that we concentrate on the east side, if we didn’t want to do all of the windows and doors. I almost put that stuff on everything, until I learned that to be really effective it has to be glued to the window frames with silicon caulk. The film expands and contracts at a different rate than the glass and the frame. It can easily break the seal between the panes of glass resulting in fogged windows – that’s the downside. :bang:

[Smiling JOe]

The strongest winds from the hurricanes will come out of the east.

[Destiny]

SJ, I love your perspective on life.... You are so honest in every word you write.
I look forward to opening the Forums to see your new pictures and your signature. I am still so new that I have not figured all the ways for signature, adding pictures and etc..
Keep 'em coming!! :clap_1: :biggrin: :floor: :floor: :funn:

[ecopal]

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&article=6

below are excerpts:

Hurricane Frequency (Joe Bastardi)

Sunday, April 02, 2006 12:24 PM EDT More News.....


>>>>>>See graph in article.

..... a strong relationship exists between warmer-than-normal temperatures across North America and a higher number of storms; the same relationship exists between colder-than-normal temperatures and lower storm frequency. The current high storm frequency coincides with warmer-than-normal temperatures across North America.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is concerned that the Northeast United States is due for a major hurricane landfall. ....

[ecopal]

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?dir=aw&page=nehurr

excerpts below:

Threat of Major Hurricane Strike Grows for Northeast

Many meteorologists believe that the next time a storm like "the Long Island Express" hits the Northeast coast, it could become the greatest natural disaster in U.S. history.

Additionally, AccuWeather.com believes that the upper Texas coast is likely to be the target of higher than normal hurricane and tropical storm activity over the next 10 years.



AccuWeather.com Warns That "Weather Disaster of Historic Proportions" Could Strike as Early as This Year

(New York, NY - March 20, 2006) - The northeast U.S. coast could be the target of a major hurricane, perhaps as early as this season, according to research announced today by the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center. In terms of number of storms, the 2006 hurricane season will again be more active than normal, but less active than last summer's historic storm season.

"The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun," said Joe Bastardi, Chief Forecaster of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center. "The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane, and with the weather patterns and hydrology we're seeing in the oceans, the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast is not a question of if but when."

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center research meteorologists have identified weather cycles that indicate which U.S. coastal areas are most susceptible to landfalls. "If you examine past weather cycles that have occurred in the Atlantic, you will see patterns of storms," added Ken Reeves, Expert Senior Meteorologist and Director of Forecasting Operations at AccuWeather.com.

"Determination of where we are in the cycle has enabled AccuWeather.com meteorologists to accurately predict hurricane activity in Florida in 2004 and along the Gulf Coast last year. There are indications that the Northeast will experience a hurricane larger and more powerful than anything that region has seen in a long time."

The current cycle and above-normal water temperatures are reminiscent of the pattern that eventually produced the 1938 hurricane that struck Providence, R.I. That storm killed 600 people in New England and Long Island. The 1938 hurricane was the strongest tropical system to strike the northeastern U.S. in recorded history, with maximum gusts of 186 mph, a 15- to 20-foot storm surge and 25- to 50-foot waves that left much of Providence under 10-15 feet of water. Forecasters at AccuWeather.com say that patterns are similar to those of the 1930s, 40s and 50s when storms such as the 1938 hurricane, the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricanes and the Trio of 1954--Carol, Edna and Hazel--battered the coast from the Carolinas to New England. The worry is that it will be sooner, rather than later, for this region to be blasted again.

Additionally, AccuWeather.com believes that the upper Texas coast is likely to be the target of higher than normal hurricane and tropical storm activity over the next 10 years.

"Hurricane Rita was a warning shot," says AccuWeather.com's Bastardi, referring to the 2005 Category 5 storm that threatened the Houston area and made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border last September. "The Texas coast is in for a long period of tropical activity, particularly the region from Corpus Christi to Sabine Pass at the Louisiana border."

According to AccuWeather.com, the 2006 tropical storm season will still be more active than normal, but less active than last year, with fewer storms than 2005's record 26 named storms and 14 hurricanes.

.....The density and value of developed property in the northeastern U.S. means that the damage from a direct hit from a major storm similar to the 1938 hurricane might conceivably rival or surpass that of Hurricane Katrina.

... Because most hurricanes in the last 50 years have been a southern U.S. phenomenon, preparedness for a major hurricane along the Northeast coast is not as thorough. ...

Many meteorologists believe that the next time a storm like "the Long Island Express" hits the Northeast coast, it could become the greatest natural disaster in U.S. history.

[ecopal]

the updated April extended range forecast for 2006 season:
(the next forecast will be May 31.)

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2006/april2006/

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2006

We continue to foresee another very active Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2006. *Landfall probabilities for the 2006 hurricane season are well above their long-period averages.
(as of 4 April 2006)

By Philip J. Klotzbach [1] and William M. Gray [2]

*with special assistance from William Thorson [3]

*This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) ***** Entire U.S. coastline - 81% (average for last century is 52%)

*2) ***** U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 64% (average for last century is 31%)

*3) ***** Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average for last century is 30%)

4) **Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean


ABSTRACT
Information obtained through March 2006 continues to indicate that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. *We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). *The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average. *We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average.

Discussion
There is no physical basis for assuming that global hurricane intensity or frequency is necessarily related to global mean surface temperature changes of less than ± 0.5 oC. *As the ocean surface warms, so too does global upper air temperatures to maintain conditionally unstable lapse-rates and global rainfall rates at their required values. *Seasonal and monthly variations of sea surface temperature (SST) within individual storm basins show only very low correlations with monthly, seasonal, and yearly variations of hurricane activity. *Other factors such as tropospheric vertical wind shear, surface pressure, low level vorticity, mid-level moisture, etc. play more dominant roles in explaining hurricane variability than do surface temperatures. *

Although there has been a general global warming over the last 30 years and particularly over the last 10 years, the SST increases in the individual tropical cyclone basins have been smaller than the overall global warming (about half) and, according to the observations, have not brought about any significant increases in global major tropical cyclones except for the Atlantic which as has been discussed, has multi-decadal oscillations driven primarily by changes in Atlantic salinity. *** No credible observational evidence is available or likely will be available in the next few decades which will be able to directly associate global surface temperature change to changes in global hurricane frequency and intensity. *

*

Most Southeast coastal residents probably do not know how fortunate they had been in the prior 38-year period (1966-2003) leading up to 2004-2005 when there were only 17 major hurricanes (0.45/year) that crossed the U.S. coastline. *In the prior 40-year period of 1926-1965, there were 36 major hurricanes (0.90/year or twice as many) that made U.S. landfall. *It is understandable that coastal residents were not prepared for the great upsurge in landfalling major hurricanes in 2004-2005.

*

We should interpret the last two years of unusually large numbers of U.S. landfalling hurricanes as natural but very low probability years. ** During 1966-2003, U.S. hurricane landfall numbers were substantially below the long-term average. *In the last two seasons, they have been much above the long-term average. *Although the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons have had an unusually high number of major landfall events, the overall Atlantic basin hurricane activity has not been much more active than five of the recent hurricane seasons since 1995 (e.g., 1995-1996, 1998-1999, 2003). *What has made the 2004-2005 seasons so unusually destructive is the higher percent of major hurricanes which moved over the U.S. coastline. *These landfall events were not primarily a function of the overall Atlantic basin net major hurricane numbers, but rather of the favorable broad-scale Atlantic upper-air steering currents which were present the last two seasons. *It was these favorable Atlantic steering currents which caused so many of the major hurricanes which formed to come ashore. *

Please visit our website at
http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane
for landfall probabilities for 11 U.S. coastal regions, 55 subregions and 205 coastal and near-coastal counties from Brownsville ,Texas
to Eastport ,Maine .


Table 9: Estimated probability (expressed in percent) of one or more U.S. landfalling tropical storms (TS), category 1-2 hurricanes (HUR), category 3-4-5 hurricanes, and total hurricanes and named storms along the entire U.S. coastline, along the Gulf Coast (Regions 1-4), and along the Florida Peninsula and the East Coast (Regions 5-11) for 2006. *The long-term mean annual probability of one or more landfalling systems during the 20 th century is given in parentheses. *

*

Coastal Category Category
Region TS 1-2 3-4-5 All Named

Entire U.S.
(Rgns 1-11) 91%(80%) 88%(68%) 81%(52%) 98%(84%) 99%(97%)

Gulf Coast
(Regions 1-4) 74%(59%) 61%(42%) 47%(30%) 79%(61%) 95%(83%)

Florida plus
East Coast
(Regions 5-11) 64%(51%) 69%(45%) 64%(31%) 89%(62%) 96%(81%)


Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005.