More Extensive Sales & Inventory Data

[Smiling JOe]

See attachments. These are breakdowns of sales and inventory over the last 3 years, including Avg Sale Price, Avg List Price, Days on Market, # of months of inventory, etc, breaking out SoWal from NoWal, while separating single family detached, condos and land.

[Smiling JOe]

more below.


A big Thank You to Kurt for chopping it up for me to make it fit.

[SHELLY]

10 years worth of condos on market for SoWal
13 years worth of land on market for SoWal
Less than 1 year's worth of condos on market for Destin :confused:

That Destin number doesn't seem quite right--although it looks like the 86 they sold in December and the 80 they sold in January were bargins (a couple pre-construction tower openings maybe?)

[Smiling JOe]

Remember you can make the numbers talk the way you want. If you simply look at the last months sales and inventory to try to get a complete picture of the inventory, you may not be getting the complete picture. (To do so would be similar to taking your blood pressure only once and basing your health report on it. Blood pressure changes very much throughtout the day.)

A more representative picture may be to take the running avg of the last 12 months for these numbers. I will let you do that work. My intention is not to overwhelm with too much information.

[SHELLY]

Remember you can make the numbers talk the way you want.

Yeah, I saw this type of thing happen around 1999-2000...like deja vu all over again. :cool:

[Cork On the Ocean]

Power ful stuff SJ. Thanks. Is that from ECAR, trends, UF or someplace else? Need to get me some. :clap_1:

[Smiling JOe]

Power ful stuff SJ. Thanks. Is that from ECAR, trends, UF or someplace else? Need to get me some. :clap_1:home -made

[Cork On the Ocean]

home -made

Good Job! :clap_1:

[SlowMovin]

Joe--Have you got a data version of the info I could get (i.e. something other than jpg format). If I get time I can try plug it into graphs and run moving averages and regressions, etc. on it.

[Smiling JOe]

Joe--Have you got a data version of the info I could get (i.e. something other than jpg format). If I get time I can try plug it into graphs and run moving averages and regressions, etc. on it.
Thanks Slow Moving for the offer, but I am not completely comfortable providing lazy agents, who may be lurking, with a completely free ride.

[Bob]

Thanks Slow Moving for the offer, but I am not completely comfortable providing lazy agents, who may be lurking, with a completely free ride.SJ,you didn't use the "R" word, did you? I dare you.....double dare.

[Bob]

ok, it's friday....just kidding, SJ !!!

[Sandcastle]

Thanks SJ. I really appreciate the data. I'm only a home owner with no intention of selling.

However, I do own a lot on the pool in Seacrest Beach that's for sale. I could be giving it away and no one would know it. It's been on the market for over six months and I've received only one inquiry. I guess we'll have to wait for the next cycle. It looks like most people are in the same boat.

[Donna]

I am glad to see a calm attitude from most of the people on this Board who are concerned about property values, increasing carrying costs, etc. Real estate has always been and will always be a cyclical economic situation. And this is especially the case with resort/vacation properties. For those who intend to hold on, the largest increase in property values in South Walton is yet to come. It will occur with the opening of the new international airport. Now the question of whether this is good or not for the quality of life in the area is another topic.

We have had similar thoughts over the past year about our house at Grayton, whether we should sell it or keep it, what conditions the storms might bring, whether costs will continue to rise for insurance and maintenance. In my experience and considerable research of second home and investment properties throughout the U.S., the South Walton area is virtually unmatched for real estate value and the area's allure for dependable vacationers who are willing to pay very high prices for rental properties. We especially like the fact that we can rent our home during the hotter, more crowded months that are the demand period (not our fav time) and then it is available to us for at least 8 months out of the year. Just wish we could get away more often. Having fewer renters also translates into less wear and tear and lower utilities the rest of the year. You will not find a comparable situation anywhere else, including Hawaii, the CA coastal areas, and ski resorts.

There are definitely minuses to having a FL house, with the uncertainty of storms perhaps topping the list after the 2005 record-setting year. Also, we have to travel two full days to get there and back from CA and there are currently no direct flights. Driving would be out of the question. Many properties are pretty well topped out in terms of giant annual appreciation. I mean, where else besides HA or Manhattan do you see 2 bdrm/2 bath condos without water frontage selling in the $1M+ price range? But I believe healthy appreciation will continue at a more realistic and consistent pace after this lull. If appreciation is your primary objective in South Walton, the best is yet to come. If it's quality of life and vacation experience, you're there now and it may not get any better than this.

What we need is a more typical hurricane season and less speculation, combined with some hard core attention to preserving the quality of life in the area. The latter would include natural protection of the beaches, dunes, and biological habitat areas; control of commercial areas so that theme park and chain stores and formula food establishments do not proliferate; reasonable provision of supporting infrastructure with developer participation; some form of affordable housing requirement from developers and with the County effectively directing the use of some housing mitigation fees into built affordable/workforce housing. In fact, I would love to see an airport fee on all flights in and out of the new airport, with those fees going toward the provision of workforce housing. If cities can do this to build sports arenas, why not an essential such as workforce housing? Pensacola Airport now changes a $12 surcharge on every flight out of that airport.

Although these prices seem to have reached an apex in the minds of many, I can assure you that growing up in DeFuniak Springs, I never thought I would see homes there selling for a million dollars. That time is here, however. :rofl:

[Paula]

[QUOTE=Donna]I
What we need is a more typical hurricane season and less speculation, combined with some hard core attention to preserving the quality of life in the area. The latter would include natural protection of the beaches, dunes, and biological habitat areas; control of commercial areas so that theme park and chain stores and formula food establishments do not proliferate; reasonable provision of supporting infrastructure with developer participation; some form of affordable housing requirement from developers and with the County effectively directing the use of some housing mitigation fees into built affordable/workforce housing. In fact, I would love to see an airport fee on all flights in and out of the new airport, with those fees going toward the provision of workforce housing. If cities can do this to build sports arenas, why not an essential such as workforce housing? Pensacola Airport now changes a $12 surcharge on every flight out of that airport.

:clap_1: That's all useful Donna. I'd add that we also want to figure out how to market the area for the "off season", particularly with northerners (Midwesterners for example). Having more low season rentals will help offset higher insurance and taxes, without having to significantly raise the peak season rental rates. Of course, this means that renters would be renting our places during some of the periods that we've enjoyed so much for ourselves, but that would be OK with me (because we can always block out times for ourselves if we want).

[monty]

[QUOTE=Donna].
Many properties are pretty well topped out in terms of giant annual appreciation. I mean, where else besides HA or Manhattan do you see 2 bdrm/2 bath condos without water frontage selling in the $1M+ price range? But I believe healthy appreciation will continue at a more realistic and consistent pace after this lull. If appreciation is your primary objective in South Walton, the best is yet to come. If it's quality of life and vacation experience, you're there now and it may not get any better than this.

These comments seem to be contradictory. Properties have topped out in terms of giant appreciation and where else are 2/2 not waterfront condos selling for $1+ million. Don't seem to jive with your comment that the best appreciation is yet to come.

Appreciation might start again, but it won't begin again until prices drop much farther with the current glut of inventory on the market. SJ's market stats back up the fact that there is a glut. These stats are not new--it's been this way and getting worse for many months.

[Sandcastle]

I moved to Florida in 1965. Since then I’ve owned quite a few homes on both coasts, including a couple of vacation properties. I never lost money on any of them and I wish I could have kept every one.

Only time will tell if this cycle is different. In the mean time, I’ve having a heck of a good time at the beach.

[sberry123]

Yeah, I saw this type of thing happen around 1999-2000...like deja vu all over again. :cool:
That is the time from when I bought my condo.

happen around 1999-2000

[Unplugged]

:welcome: sberry123

[SlowMovin]

Thanks Slow Moving for the offer, but I am not completely comfortable providing lazy agents, who may be lurking, with a completely free ride.

I can understand that. You have apparently put a lot of effort into compiling this information.

Please check your PM.

[Smiling JOe]

Sales to list price is 110.39% for Detached Single Family in the Freeport area for Feb '06. Yes, that means that, on average, the sales price was higher than the list. There were 6 sales. Avg list was $236,800 and Avg Sales was $261,400.

[SHELLY]

Sales to list price is 110.39% for Detached Single Family in the Freeport area for Feb '06. Yes, that means that, on average, the sales price was higher than the list. There were 6 sales. Avg list was $236,800 and Avg Sales was $261,400.

How about 30A for February?

[Smiling JOe]

How about 30A for February?Hold your horses, it is coming. I have some other things to take care of first.

[beachkids]

Thanks. Nice info SJ.

[Miss Kitty]

Hold your horses, it is coming. I have some other things to take care of first.

Ride 'em cowboy!

[Cork On the Ocean]

[QUOTE=Donna].
Many properties are pretty well topped out in terms of giant annual appreciation. I mean, where else besides HA or Manhattan do you see 2 bdrm/2 bath condos without water frontage selling in the $1M+ price range? But I believe healthy appreciation will continue at a more realistic and consistent pace after this lull. If appreciation is your primary objective in South Walton, the best is yet to come. If it's quality of life and vacation experience, you're there now and it may not get any better than this.

These comments seem to be contradictory. Properties have topped out in terms of giant appreciation and where else are 2/2 not waterfront condos selling for $1+ million. Don't seem to jive with your comment that the best appreciation is yet to come.

Appreciation might start again, but it won't begin again until prices drop much farther with the current glut of inventory on the market. SJ's market stats back up the fact that there is a glut. These stats are not new--it's been this way and getting worse for many months.

Do we have a grim reaper smiley face?

[John R]

[QUOTE=Donna].
I mean, where else besides HA or Manhattan do you see 2 bdrm/2 bath condos without water frontage selling in the $1M+ price range?

here (http://root.z57.com/servlets/basic.OraclePassalong?applyTo=clients/real_estate/forms/listing_print.zml&template=www.peaksrealestate.com/templates/listing_print.zt&LID=mauouqleiyo)

or here (http://www.rosiecusack.com/property-detail.asp?id=8)

there (http://washingtonpost.homescape.com/washingtonpost/listing_details.jhtml?userId=222NZWUSEPCV5LAYYEQCF EY227532&filter_product_id=15446536&searchType=48&sbt=N&search_by_type=new_mls%2Cnew_class%2Cnew_const%2Cr esale_mls%2Cresale_class%2Cresale%2Cresale_ecom_ow ner%2Cnew_ecom_owner%2Cresale_ecom_agent%2Cnew_eco m_agent%2Cresale_ecom_broker%2Cnew_ecom_broker%2Cr esale_ecom_builder%2Cnew_ecom_builder&onTab=1&filter_property_type=condo_unit&filter_min_price=1000000&filter_max_price=2000000&filter_min_bed=2&filter_min_bath=2&filter_open_house=N&sort_result_order=price_desc%2Cattribute_count%2Cl isting_age&geo_area_text_lookup_id=68984&areaIdHistory=52A68984A68984&print=false)

there (http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListing.asp?snum=4&mlsttl=Denver&frm=bycomm&pgnum=1&mls=denver&js=on&poe=realtor&st=co&areaid=1005158&typ=2&mnprice=1000000&mxprice=2000000&mnbed=2&mnbath=2&mnsqft=0&ss_mitm=n%2Fa&sid=0644BF53B9B9C&snumxlid=1055176115&lnksrc=00002)

everywhere ? (http://chicagotribune.homescape.com/chicagotribune/listing_details.jhtml?userId=MI3RCALUXIWWXLAYYEQCF EY227532&filter_product_id=15646258&searchType=48&sbt=N&search_by_type=resale_mls%2Cresale_class%2Cresale% 2Cnew_const%2Cnew_class%2Cnew_mls&onTab=1&filter_property_type=condo_unit&filter_min_price=1000000&filter_max_price=2000000&filter_min_bed=2&filter_min_bath=2&filter_open_house=N&sort_result_order=bed_count%2Cattribute_count%2Cpr ice_desc%2Clisting_age&geo_area_text_lookup_id=51484&areaIdHistory=52A51255A69807A51484A51484&print=false)

[Rita]

[QUOTE=monty]

Do we have a grim reaper smiley face?


http://i38.photobucket.com/albums/e129/gulfwindsway/alien.gif

[Cork On the Ocean]

[QUOTE=Cork On the Ocean]


http://i38.photobucket.com/albums/e129/gulfwindsway/alien.gif

Well done! Looks like we're gonna need that one in our choices. :lol: