Destin is "Up and Coming" and PC Airport

[Donna]

Just rec'd a letter from two local realtors saying that well known pundit Barbara Corcoran will soon announce the top five "up and coming" real estate areas in the U.S. and the Destin area is one of them. Also, an update on the PC Airport, where the State has notified airport officials that the hurdles have been cleared for construction and they expect the airport to be open in 2009 (this usually means it will open in 2015!).

These realtors further said that they've sold recent homes at a sales to list price ratio of 96 percent and that the market has picked up considerably over the last few weeks.

:clap_1: for some and :bang: for others, I know.

[beachmouse]

This up and coming list?

http://www.barbaracorcoran.com/home?/whats_hot/hot_areas_articles/112/

Top 5 Up and Coming Areas of 2006 As Seen on ABC’s “The View”

January 11, 2006

1. Sitka, Alaska
2. Jacksonville, Florida
3. Oxford, Mississippi
4. South Bronx, New York
5. Enid, Oklahoma

I can see Jacksonville making sense. It's an interesting place that's undervalued by FL standards.

[Beach Runner]

I agree. The beaches on the east coast are like a parking lot, but for baby boomers it has a lot to offer - better medical care (like Mayo Clinic) and services for retirees, more flights to the ATL hub, etc. That's why a lot of our friends have invested at Amelia Island.

SoWal is better. But sometimes you have to face the realities of getting old. :(

[monty]

Just rec'd a letter from two local realtors saying that well known pundit Barbara Corcoran will soon announce the top five "up and coming" real estate areas in the U.S. and the Destin area is one of them. Also, an update on the PC Airport, where the State has notified airport officials that the hurdles have been cleared for construction and they expect the airport to be open in 2009 (this usually means it will open in 2015!).

These realtors further said that they've sold recent homes at a sales to list price ratio of 96 percent and that the market has picked up considerably over the last few weeks.

:clap_1: for some and :bang: for others, I know.


Although I am still looking for the market to soften more before putting money into a property, I do hope that corcoran is correct for the sake of the real estate market (and the general economy) both locally and nationally.

I have been hearing many of our local realtors in SoWal talking about how a robust recovery is right around the corner or the market has picked up considerably lately for the last six months. The market statistics do not back this up. I am keeping up with the market and just noticed that there are now 100 houses on the market in Watercolor alone plus another 112 lots and many condos. This is over 30% of the available inventory in this subdivision alone. The stats are similar in Cypress Dunes, Watersound, Rosemary, etc.

There have been only an handful of sales since November in all of the major projects along 30A including WS, WC, Alys, CD, Retreat, the Preserve and others while inventory continues to escalate. Versus 2004/2005, sales in these major projects are down 50% or more. Property owners continue to lower prices drastically yet no one is buying. Several lots in Cypress Dunes, the Preserve, Watercolor, Watersound, Rosemary, etc are for sale at prices well below recent highs. A good example is a lot in Watercolor that is now priced at $399k. It's been almost 2 years since ANY lot in Watercolor sold for under $400k. Several lots adjacent to this lot sold for over $600k and this lot still has over a year before the build out deadline (plus you can buy another year of grace for $30k).

Contrary to what other posters have said about 1000's of people that would jump on a deal that was 30, 40, 50, 60% below recent market highs these "great deals" are not being snatched up. As build out dates rapidly approach on lots in many communities, it will be interesting to see how the developers react. For instance, with over 110 lots for sale in Watercolor and almost 90 for sale in Watersound, there is no way the market will absorb a majority of these lots before the building deadlines pass. No way St. Joe is going to repurchase 50, 100, or 150 lots even though they have the right to do so. What happens when these lot owners refuse to pay the fines of $2500 per month? No matter what happens, prices will definitely continue to fall. The SoWal market is not immune from the law of supply and demand, and there is just way too much inventory on the market, and it is growing every day, for prices not to continue a free fall.

It is going to get very, very interesting.

[SHELLY]

Just rec'd a letter from two local realtors saying that well known pundit Barbara Corcoran will soon announce the top five "up and coming" real estate areas in the U.S. and the Destin area is one of them. Also, an update on the PC Airport, where the State has notified airport officials that the hurdles have been cleared for construction and they expect the airport to be open in 2009 (this usually means it will open in 2015!).

These realtors further said that they've sold recent homes at a sales to list price ratio of 96 percent and that the market has picked up considerably over the last few weeks.

:clap_1: for some and :bang: for others, I know.

Sounds like an act of desperation to me. Realtors and pundits were nowhere to be seen during the boom (too busy making money). Now they're beating the bushes for buyers..."investulators" are jumping ship and flooding the market; boomers are having trouble unloading the "old" homestead up north in order to buy down south; second home buyers are in no hurry to buy and content to sit on the sidelines until the prices re-adjust. Interesting times ahead---indeed.

[Chickpea]

Sounds like an act of desperation to me. Realtors and pundits were nowhere to be seen during the boom (too busy making money). Now they're beating the bushes for buyers..."investulators" are jumping ship and flooding the market; boomers are having trouble unloading the "old" homestead up north in order to buy down south; second home buyers are in no hurry to buy and content to sit on the sidelines until the prices re-adjust. Interesting times ahead---indeed.

Still...for all of us who live here and are here for the long haul hopefully, who love it and who are not investors (buying 1 house was tough enough!), we hope that the crazy, frenzied and unsustainable price increases we all saw 1-2 years ago will slow the out-of-control development and deter those who are only investors. I know I may be naive but I am hopeful obviously that we will see modest, maybe good returns on our property but I do not expect to make 50% per year and I REALLY like the idea of slowing down all those people who were just buying and flipping.

[SHELLY]

Still...for all of us who live here and are here for the long haul hopefully, who love it and who are not investors (buying 1 house was tough enough!), we hope that the crazy, frenzied and unsustainable price increases we all saw 1-2 years ago will slow the out-of-control development and deter those who are only investors.

You may be in luck! If investors listened to Ms. Corcoran on TV today, they're snapping up property in Sitka, Alaska and Enid, OK. (Neither of which sounds like Destin :shock: (?)) Those local realtors who sent out those letters may want to sue Ms. Corcoran for the price of postage :D

[Chickpea]

You may be in luck! If investors listened to Ms. Corcoran on TV today, they're snapping up property in Sitka, Alaska and Enid, OK. (Neither of which sounds like Destin :shock: (?)) Those local realtors who sent out those letters may want to sue Ms. Corcoran for the price of postage :D
Let's hope you are right and that indeed see less investors here and more full time residents - having said that though obviously SOME investors are always good as they help gauge the market and its demands.

[beachmouse]

One of thw SW Florida economic development groups had a good right idea a couple years back- start targeting the owners/CEOs of white collar high wage/high skills 40-200 person companies that were theoretically not terribly tied to a given place. Phase 1- convince the CEO to buy a vacation home down here. Phase 2- convince him/her that it's so nice to be down in the land of the palm tree on what meager vacation time they have that they want to move the whole darn company down here instead.

[SHELLY]

One of thw SW Florida economic development groups had a good right idea a couple years back- start targeting the owners/CEOs of white collar high wage/high skills 40-200 person companies that were theoretically not terribly tied to a given place. Phase 1- convince the CEO to buy a vacation home down here. Phase 2- convince him/her that it's so nice to be down in the land of the palm tree on what meager vacation time they have that they want to move the whole darn company down here instead.

Phase 3 - Pay employees enough to live in the local area

Phase 4 - Explain the outrageous Operating Expenses of company to shareholders

Phase 5 - Fire current CEO

Phase 6 - Move company to Enid, OK

Phase 7 - Sell real estate assets in Land-0'-Palm Trees to developers

Phase 8 - Lay off 40-200 employees

[beachmouse]

You missed the step about mass protests by 30-A property owners about how an office park would kill their own property values. I was thinking more of the industrial park in Freeport that still seems to have some space available, and wouldn't make for too awful of a commute from DeFuniak or Mossy Head if need be.

[SHELLY]

You missed the step about mass protests by 30-A property owners about how an office park would kill their own property values. I was thinking more of the industrial park in Freeport that still seems to have some space available, and wouldn't make for too awful of a commute from DeFuniak or Mossy Head if need be.

Didn't you mention in another thread that businesses "up north Florida" were having a difficult time attracting employees because the cost of living was too high (so they're building worker's housing)?

Look what's happened to our state in just the last couple of years--outrageous housing prices, stagnant wages, growing service-worker economy, increasing property taxes (due to housing prices), soaring insurance rates and changing weather patterns. Florida's ship has pretty much sailed as an attractive Mecca for business relocation. If a privately-owned company's CEO and staff want to relocate, that wouldn't be too much of a problem....BUT if a publicly-held company wants to move the operation to Florida, they're going to have to do come pretty slick tap-dancing to convince the shareholders it is a sound economic decision.

[Bob]

Florida ranked 44th lowest of 50 states for state/local tax burdens as a percentage of per capita income according to CNN/Money for 2005. Also, Florida is one of only 9 states with no state income tax. Shelly, it's not all bad. People are moving here in droves to live/retire, and it's not just the warm weather.

[Jellyfish]

THis has been occuring in Las Vegas for years- mostly 10-50 employee professional Sub S firms where owner moves to where they want to live. NV has many of same attractions (weather, low taxes, etc). Compared to many parts of the US, the Southeast US is still a major bargain.

[SHELLY]

Florida ranked 44th lowest of 50 states for state/local tax burdens as a percentage of per capita income according to CNN/Money for 2005. Also, Florida is one of only 9 states with no state income tax. Shelly, it's not all bad. People are moving here in droves to live/retire, and it's not just the warm weather.

When one's tax burden as a percentage of per capita income is low based on a wage of $8 - $12 per hour, that's not a very attractive statistic.

How about CNN/Money's take on the "Most Overvalued Housing Areas Jan 2006)?

Panama City +46% (same as San Diego);
Ft Walton Beach +43% (Las Vegas 38%);
Pensacola +33% (Honolulu 31%);
Tallahassee +22% (Boston 18%).

These numbers are based on local interest rates and INCOME LEVELS for the area.

Florida Housing Overvalued (http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/29/real_estate/buying_selling/handicapping_housing_markets/)

[Bob]

When one's tax burden as a percentage of per capita income is low based on a wage of $8 - $12 per hour, that's not a very attractive statistic.

How about CNN/Money's take on the "Most Overvalued Housing Areas Jan 2006)?

Panama City +46% (same as San Diego);
Ft Walton Beach +43% (Las Vegas 38%);
Pensacola +33% (Honolulu 31%);
Tallahassee +22% (Boston 18%).

These numbers are based on local interest rates and INCOME LEVELS for the area.

Florida Housing Overvalued (http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/29/real_estate/buying_selling/handicapping_housing_markets/)Shelley, low tax burden and zero state income tax in Florida are a given. Additionally, second-homeownership so badly skews overvaluation/local income stats, as to render them meaningless. What's your original point, other than gratuitous baiting? Service workers should be able to own in resort areas? Cool! My bowtie is ready....drinks all around for a lot in Seacrest Beach!!!

[Just_In_Thyme]

[QUOTE=SHELLY] These numbers are based on local interest rates and INCOME LEVELS for the area.

If these numbers are based on local income levels, wouldn't they be a bit off since many of these areas have large popultions of 2nd home owners whose income is not included in the calculations? Or for that matter people who are retired and may not have large incomes?

[Donna]

Just in Thyme is right. Income levels are hardly a factor for most buyers of homes in South Walton. Many sales are cash and many of the mortgages are granted on the basis of credit rating alone (income not even factored). No one buying homes in the area counts the existence of affordable workforce housing in their decision to purchase. It is just so much traffic to them and they probably come from places where the traffic congestion is far worse than in South Walton, anyway. They also come from places where the prices for waterfront resort property are five times or more the price of South Walton's. So all things are relative.

That said, the most important aspect of requiring developers to provide some affordable housing is....it may be the only way they learn that such housing can be built and a profit made on it, too. The demand is already there. Affordable housing in other parts of the country (many areas much, much higher than South Walton) has been shown to be profitable for the builders. But they have to learn how to do it and they won't offer because they are locked into the idea of building 4,000-sq. ft. houses with 3-car garages and swimming pools. Like the automotive industry, the development industry is slow to accept change and only does so when there is a very strong motivation, such as....inclusionary housing requirements! Local government should think of inclusionary zoning as a learning curve for developers. It is sad that the fat cats are walking away with so little in the way of exactions, leaving the cleanup work to the smaller players later down the line. :idontno:

[SHELLY]

[QUOTE=SHELLY] These numbers are based on local interest rates and INCOME LEVELS for the area.

If these numbers are based on local income levels, wouldn't they be a bit off since many of these areas have large popultions of 2nd home owners whose income is not included in the calculations? Or for that matter people who are retired and may not have large incomes?

What this means is that based on the cost of housing compared to the income level of the area's "average worker (read school teacher, cop, firefigher)" the houses are WAY overpriced and judged too expensive for the "average worker" to purchase.

It doesn't matter whether the cost of area housing was driven up by "investulators," blue-hairs, Paris Hilton, or a granite countertop shortage...the fact remains that it is a dangerous financial stretch for "average workers" to purchase a residence in the Panhandle at this point in time and at these prices. Either wages must go up or housing prices must come down or a little of both. Until that happens, the resale housing inventory will continue to grow (BTW Joe...what's Walton's January stats?? ;-) )

So this summer when visitors get sloppy service (or no service) and stressed out Assistant Managers are working the grill, wiping down tables, and cleaning the toilets--you'll know why. ;-)

[Bob]

[QUOTE=Just_In_Thyme]

What this means is that based on the cost of housing compared to the income level of the area's "average worker (read school teacher, cop, firefigher)" the houses are WAY overpriced and judged too expensive for the "average worker" to purchase.

It doesn't matter whether the cost of area housing was driven up by "investulators," blue-hairs, Paris Hilton, or a granite countertop shortage...the fact remains that it is a dangerous financial stretch for "average workers" to purchase a residence in the Panhandle at this point in time and at these prices. Either wages must go up or housing prices must come down or a little of both. Until that happens, the resale housing inventory will continue to grow (BTW Joe...what's Walton's January stats?? ;-) )

So this summer when visitors get sloppy service (or no service) and stressed out Assistant Managers are working the grill, wiping down tables, and cleaning the toilets--you'll know why. ;-)" The houses are way overpriced".-Shelly What houses Shelly? Where? At the beach? There is no correlation between blue collar wages and resort property values. I'm going to Kiawah Island soon to a rental house for the week, and when or if I eat out at a nearby restaurant, I'm sure the waiter serving us will have driven the 30-60 minute drive out from metro Charleston to work for less than minimum wage plus tips. He or she probably won't declare the tips, and the sky will not fall. If that waiter has good credit, they can buy an affordable home anywhere but the resort islands or the historic downtown area with a stated income mortgage. It's the free market at work allowing home ownership to more people, not less as you presuppose.

[Smiling JOe]

-----> I am moving to affordable long term housing idea (http://www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=3527&highlight=affordable+housing) to post my reply.

[Donna]

Shelly, your assumption that wages must go way up or housing prices must go way down is overly simplistic; neither will happen. Housing prices in resort areas have been out of reach for most upper-middle class income groups for some time, much less the service workers in low and very low-income brackets. Surely you realize that the vast majority of these homes are not being purchased by local residents? They are mostly second homes or investment properties.

On the subject of service, we have generally had good service at South Walton, ranging from restaurant servers to massage therapists to gas station attendants. There is little or no correlation between how close to work someone lives and how much pride they take in their work. In our community, there is not a house in town available for under a million dollars, yet we have incredible service in restaurants, at wineries, and other places where lower-income workers are employed. It does not hold that a person offers excellent service only if they are able to buy a house on the beach less than five miles from where they work. I fail to see your point. Sounds as if you are righteously ticked that you've been shut out of the housing market down there. While that may be a valid emotion, it doesn't translate into a solid economic principle.

Real solutions to planning problems typically require a constructive basis and a "can do" attitude. I don't see any of that here, just doom and gloom and, "Don't forget that I told you so." It is a really tiresome point of view, frankly.

[Amp22]

I agree Donna. Shelly's posts are sooooo tiresome. And she throws links out like they prove something. For every article and statistic she posts, I can post 10 others that say the opposite. Her points are very angry and shallow. I've gotten to where I don't want to wade through all the negativity. I doubt she will stop unless :banned: