Jan Metro Mkt #'s

[redfisher]

Anybody seen the new sales #'s...Red

[Franny]

Anybody seen the new sales #'s...Red
Are yu referring to real estate closed sales...

[redfisher]

yes, the metro market trend numbers...Red

[Smiling JOe]

yes, the metro market trend numbers...RedHave not received them yet, but I have not been to the office as of yet, today.

[Smiling JOe]

What do you know... the Bay and Okaloosa reports are in, but still waiting to receive Walton.

[GreenWaveDave]

Does anyone have the Jan #'s for Walton yet?

[Smiling JOe]

Does anyone have the Jan #'s for Walton yet?

As of yesterday, I had not received the new numbers for Walton Co. I have not been to the office today to check. When I do get them, I will gladly post them.

EDIT - I just remembered that today is a Federal holiday, so my guess is that they still are not at the office.

[redfisher]

hey sj, did the #'s ever show?....Red

[Smiling JOe]

I just scored them today. See attachment.

[30A Skunkape]

So, what do you make of the data Joe? To a rube like me it looks kinda bad. :idontno:

[Bob]

Average lot sales price down almost 200k? Maybe all the activity is north of 98 now!?

[Smiling JOe]

So, what do you make of the data Joe? To a rube like me it looks kinda bad. :idontno:I have not had a chance to look closely at the data, as I have been busy today. At a glance, it simply shows what most of you already knew. Sales are down. Avg price on Single Family Homes is way up, a few more building permits pulled vs Dec 05, but that is expected with the Dec holidays.

These numbers do show the trend, hence the name, but keep in mind that the charts are comparing '06 to '05. 2005 was the best year on record in real estate, and it was a year of record natural disaster in this area.. Even if sales for 2006 are half as strong as 2005, that is nothing to moan about. Keep in mind that many people have no more than 10-15% actually invested in a property, so when you look at the real returns on cash outlay that could be had by selling at reasonable prices, investors should still do very well.

[Smiling JOe]

Average lot sales price down almost 200k? Maybe all the activity is north of 98 now!?Remember that this data is for Walton County, not SoWal. The majority of land sales recently have been in NoWal, mostly in the Defuniak area, where a lot can sell for as little as $25,000. That had a serious impact on the reduction in avg price of lot sales. For the location of the sales, I am getting my data from memory of looking at the sales in Walton County on a daily basis.

[Amp22]

The last few years have been ridiculous. In years before that almost nothing sold outside of the Summer season, especially dead were November-February. This Summer will tell the story. I expect a lot of hemming and hawing while things settle, then a gradual return to normal steady appreciation. The biggest hardship will be among realtors, builders, developers, etc. who jumped in with both feet over the last few years. They'll have to tear themselves away or go back to their old jobs, which may not exist in SoWal for some.

[Smiling JOe]

The last few years have been ridiculous. In years before that almost nothing sold outside of the Summer season, especially dead were November-February. This Summer will tell the story. I expect a lot of hemming and hawing while things settle, then a gradual return to normal steady appreciation. The biggest hardship will be among realtors, builders, developers, etc. who jumped in with both feet over the last few years. They'll have to tear themselves away or go back to their old jobs, which may not exist in SoWal for some.
What old job? I never had a job before. :floor:... at least for a while. :floor:

[Cork On the Ocean]

Good point about the impact of North Walton sales SJ. I can't help but wonder about JOE'S (not you) fantastic marketing and it's impact on all of the overextended people with lots in Watercolor and Watersound. No doubt S. Walton land took a hit but it will be interesting to separate the N walton land out and really get the picture on 30A. Thanks for the data.

[Miss Kitty]

Good point about the impact of North Walton sales SJ. I can't help but wonder about JOE'S (not you) fantastic marketing and it's impact on all of the overextended people with lots in Watercolor and Watersound. No doubt S. Walton land took a hit but it will be interesting to separate the N walton land out and really get the picture on 30A. Thanks for the data.

Does anyone know the impact this is having on Alys Beach, if any? Thanks.

[Smiling JOe]

Does anyone know the impact this is having on Alys Beach, if any? Thanks.According to "my inside source" ;-), Alys Beach has been getting many lookers in the last few weeks, some of which have converted into very nice contracts now that they can see Alys Beach coming to life.

[Miss Kitty]

According to "my inside source" ;-), Alys Beach has been getting many lookers in the last few weeks, some of which have converted into very nice contracts now that they can see Alys Beach coming to life.

:clap_1: for them :eek: for me!!!

I plan on seeing the inside source in April!

[Smiling JOe]

:clap_1: for them :eek: for me!!!

I plan on seeing the inside source in April!You best make an appoitment. :funn:

[Miss Kitty]

You best make an appoitment. :funn:

STOP IT!!!! :bang:

[jdarg]

You best make an appoitment. :funn:

Send him so many monkey mails that he has to see you to get them to stop coming!:floor:

[Smiling JOe]

Sorry :oops: ---------> follow me back to the lounge, ladies.

...and now we return to the Jan Metro Mkt #'s.

[Chickpea]

:clap_1: for them :eek: for me!!!

I plan on seeing the inside source in April!
Sueshore,
I am sure inside source will be happy to see you and it is not a big deal to make an appt to see one of the Sales people there.

[Cork On the Ocean]

Sorry :oops: ---------> follow me back to the lounge, ladies.

...and now we return to the Jan Metro Mkt #'s.

OK back to Jan report. Those walton stats really peaked my interest.

Pulling out areas 17 & 18 (30A),

Jan 2006

DSF's 13 sales (of 138) $19,555,766 sales volume (of $78,608,990)
Ave price $1,504290

Condos 2 sales (of 48) $2,965,575 sales volume (of $28,568,400)
Ave price $1,482,787

Land - 7 sales (of 389) $6,708,000 sales volume (of $55,077,0000)
Ave Price $958,286


Jan 2005

DSF's 53 sales (of 248) $48,621,317 sales volume (of $117,257,663)
Ave price $917,383

Condos 35 sales (of 125) $31,774,915 sales volume (of $71,891,600)
Ave price $907,855

Land - 85 sales (of 439) $68,423,664 sales volume (of $146,571,400)
Ave Price $804,984

So, looks like you picked it SJ, an overwhelming number of Jan sales were not 30A accounting for the horrible looking numbers. And as we have known, the number of sales are significantly down on 30A. Surprisingly though, the average price on 30A is significantly up, even on land. :scratch: :lolabove:

Makes me think that them that has will keep getting.

[Miss Kitty]

Sueshore,
I am sure inside source will be happy to see you and it is not a big deal to make an appt to see one of the Sales people there.


;-) ...inside source and I already have plans!!!! Now, I just need some Alys Beach house plans!!!!

[jdarg]

;-) ...inside source and I already have plans!!!! Now, I just need some Alys Beach house plans!!!!

don't forget lots of guest bedrooms for your monkey friends!:biggrin:


and I'm walking to the lounge right now.....

[Miss Kitty]

don't forget lots of guest bedrooms for your monkey friends!:biggrin:


and I'm walking to the lounge right now.....

:lolabove: ...right behind ya'!!!!

[redfisher]

Cork, it seems that at least this gives some idea as to where we are in the process...traditional theory suggests that volume is the primary indicator...prices overall tend to adjust toward the end of the cycle..ie the bottom thereby souring sentiment...Red

[Cork On the Ocean]

Redfisher,

I agree. What makes this particular data difficult to use in predicting where we are in the cycle is that January 2005 was still in the "peak" period, in spite of the 3rd quarter 2004 seasonal drop. It wasn't until May 2005 that the bottom began to drop and then again in July 2005 so when comparing today to January 2005 we're comparing today to peak figures. My thoughts are that it probably will be May 2006 until we see if we're gonna start a meaningful upward trend again (when we can compare this years volume to last year's hit).

[Chickpea]

;-) ...inside source and I already have plans!!!! Now, I just need some Alys Beach house plans!!!!
Plenty of great plans to chose from. Good luck.

[redfisher]

Cork, I would think that by definition we are not near the bottom...prices dropped significantly in both the timeframes you speak and still no activity...therefore they must continue to drop until volume levels increase...that plus interest rate cuts in the 1st qtr 07-3rd qtr 07 might provide some catalyst to stabilize prices

[Bob]

Cork, I would think that by definition we are not near the bottom...prices dropped significantly in both the timeframes you speak and still no activity...therefore they must continue to drop until volume levels increase...that plus interest rate cuts in the 1st qtr 07-3rd qtr 07 might provide some catalyst to stabilize pricesredfisher, tell me more about rate cuts for 07. Short term/long term, what are you reading???

[elliedog]

If my accounting is correct sales volume is down 90% year over year for 30A. Does that not frightening all of us?

[kurt]

If my accounting is correct sales volume is down 90% year over year for 30A. Does that not frightening all of us?

It depends if you are for or against sales, and your timeline. If you're all for sales, then the numbers probably look pretty good compared to 2000. If you're only worried about what happens in a 12-month period then you might not like the change.

[elliedog]

The numbers from year to year are what they are. We need realistic disscussion. Don't kill the messager. I have a very significant interest in SoWal's success too.

[Cork On the Ocean]

Cork, I would think that by definition we are not near the bottom...prices dropped significantly in both the timeframes you speak and still no activity...therefore they must continue to drop until volume levels increase...that plus interest rate cuts in the 1st qtr 07-3rd qtr 07 might provide some catalyst to stabilize prices

Redfisher, My use of the bottom was colloquial. Will rephrase. We were riding high and the rug got pulled out.

Prices have not dropped. List Prices have dropped. When I saw homes sell for $640K in May 2004 , resell for $850 in Sept 2004 and then relist for $1.2 million in January 2005, I laughed. If someone paid that ridiculous price, they made the seller's pipe dream come true. We saw those ridiculous list prices start to drop when people refused to pay it during the summer of 2005. Then when the more realistically priced homes started selling, of course they paid less than the people who made poor decisions.

The facts are that the average sold price in Jan 2006 is significantly higher than the average sold price in Jan 2005. When people stopped buying, the number of sold transactions decreased for DSF's by 75% yet the total sales dollars only decreased by 60% which means the average price of sold homes in 2006 were higher, 64% higher! The same is true for condos and land on 30A over the timeframe but to a lesser extent.

This area is now being bought by the wealthy who can afford to pay whatever they want. There are plenty of them out there. Will the number of transactions decrease again :idontno: but I guess that could be expected as the pool of eligible buyers decrease. My personal belief is that if I sit tight for a while, these wealthy buyers will bring the values of my property up even more than it is already. :biggrin:

[redfisher]

Cork, I would respectfully take issue w/several statements..

1st..the numbers were from walton county tax sale records based on subdivision...i'm not referring to list prices...i believe closing prices have dropped...however, i don't see what difference it makes...lower listings create lower closings....its arbitrary calling some prices ridiculous...ridiculous or not, those are closed prices that serve as valid comps regardless of opinion...and to your point r/e "realistic" prices, these jan volume numbers indicate that they aren't realistic enough yet...

2nd..As stated previously, traditional demand theory suggests that volume is the leading indicator-pricing is the more lagging indicator...in fact, the reluctance of sellers to adjust prices could be secondary contributor to the severity of the downturn...so, for you "Cork" to be able to pinpoint the two months (which you did correctly) when volume dried up...you would almost have to shorten the horizon of data to determine position in the cycle...we only have #'s for jan 06...it seems to me that yoy comparisons at this point offer only consolation...thanks, Red

[Bob]

Cork, I would respectfully take issue w/several statements..

1st..the numbers were from walton county tax sale records based on subdivision...i'm not referring to list prices...i believe closing prices have dropped...however, i don't see what difference it makes...lower listings create lower closings....its arbitrary calling some prices ridiculous...ridiculous or not, those are closed prices that serve as valid comps regardless of opinion...and to your point r/e "realistic" prices, these jan volume numbers indicate that they aren't realistic enough yet...

2nd..As stated previously, traditional demand theory suggests that volume is the leading indicator-pricing is the more lagging indicator...in fact, the reluctance of sellers to adjust prices could be secondary contributor to the severity of the downturn...so, for you "Cork" to be able to pinpoint the two months (which you did correctly) when volume dried up...you would almost have to shorten the horizon of data to determine position in the cycle...we only have #'s for jan 06...it seems to me that yoy comparisons at this point offer only consolation...thanks, Redwho's your rate guru redfisher????

[redfisher]

Bob, I believe the history is an average of 6-12 mos from the time the fed has stopped raising to when it begins cutting again...Red

[Cork On the Ocean]

Cork, I would respectfully take issue w/several statements..
1st..the numbers were from walton county tax sale records based on subdivision...i'm not referring to list prices...i believe closing prices have dropped...

Red, I don't disagree with you that particular subdivisions have some sales that have sold at lower than comparables. First, keep in mind that you are apparently using tax records for your data which is a couple of months behind and include sales that are not arm's length transactions. Also, while I haven't reviewed every subdivision on 30A, it's common knowledge that the JOE communities have taken a hit. I think this is largely due to excessive penalties for buildout times. Alys prices have sold for significantly more and I'd have to check but Im not aware of any properties that have had bargain sales in Rosemary.


however, i don't see what difference it makes...lower listings create lower closings....its arbitrary calling some prices ridiculous...ridiculous or not, those are closed prices that serve as valid comps regardless of opinion...and to your point r/e "realistic" prices, these jan volume numbers indicate that they aren't realistic enough yet...

To me it does make a difference. I can ask for $15 million for my house but it doesn't mean I'm gonna get it. This is what happened and a few people took the bait. My point being that there are not that many comps at those "ridiculous" prices relative to the total sales.

2nd..As stated previously, traditional demand theory suggests that volume is the leading indicator-pricing is the more lagging indicator...in fact, the reluctance of sellers to adjust prices could be secondary contributor to the severity of the downturn...

I'm sure that seller reluctance to drop prices is fueling the slowdown in sales but that tells me that the majority of owners on 30A are more resistant to economic changes. They don't all need to dump their places which will drive prices down.

so, for you "Cork" to be able to pinpoint the two months (which you did correctly) when volume dried up...you would almost have to shorten the horizon of data to determine position in the cycle...we only have #'s for jan 06...it seems to me that yoy comparisons at this point offer only consolation...thanks, Red

If you'll note my post stated "What makes this particular data difficult to use in predicting where we are in the cycle is " and "My thoughts are that it probably will be May 2006 until we see if we're gonna start a meaningful upward trend".

Not quite sure why you want to debate it. I make no predictions whatsoever. Didn't say everything will be Rosey in May. You seem to have a prediction that we're ready to crash and burn which in my opinion has no foundation at this point. Returning to a healthy market with modest appreciation is not mass forclosures, bankruptcies and people losing their butts. Are you an economist? Not intended to be sarcastic :-) Just asking if you are a professional from the language you use.

I would hope that some people would appreciate the honest data that is being posted on this board rather than receiving anectdotal reports of a strengthening market. They'll sit tight, watch their market and make wise decisions.

[redfisher]

Cork, it was not my desire to seem confrontational and I don't have a negative bias (Nobody wants to hear good news more than you and I) It just doesn't look like we're low enough yet...How low?-I don't have a clue...But wherever it is, let get there and get it over with...

If I were to debate anyone (which I won't), it would be those who see a slowdown and throw their property out at an unrealistic price just to make themselves feel better about taking "some" action...that just seems to waste everyone's time...if you want to sell it, price it to move...

To your point, I rely on the honest data and have thought that a lot of what gets posted in these real estate threads is just baseless venting...As an aside, the Walton County Clerk's website has tax data w/scanned forms updated as of yesterday-extremely current...thanks, Red

[Cork On the Ocean]

Red,
Let's all keep our fingers crossed! Not sure if you're a full time resident or not but Summer's coming! Soon it will be back to free movies, concerts, soaking in the sun and chilling. My favorite time in South Walton. :biggrin:

[Bob]

Bob, I believe the history is an average of 6-12 mos from the time the fed has stopped raising to when it begins cutting again...Redthanks redfisher