To holders of JOE

[SHELLY]

JOE's price has been moving down for a while now, but the pace has picked up this morning--tomorrow they report 4th quarter and yearly earnings before the bell and later they'll announce guidance going forward....coincidence? :shock:

Do you know where your "stop loss" order is?

[John]

So, what are you saying? That further declines are ahead? Are you recommending a sale? Let me know when you sell your shares.

[SHELLY]

Are you recommending a sale?

Nope.

[John]

Me either. It sounded like you were not happy with the stock. In retrospect, I suppose we should have sold at $85 and then buy it back next week. Dam@ crystal ball messed up.

[Smiling JOe]

Me either. It sounded like you were not happy with the stock. In retrospect, I suppose we should have sold at $85 and then buy it back next week. Dam@ crystal ball messed up. That will teach you. You are supposed to use the "magic 8-Ball."

[SHELLY]

Me either. It sounded like you were not happy with the stock. In retrospect, I suppose we should have sold at $85 and then buy it back next week. Dam@ crystal ball messed up.

That's the purpose of a "stop loss" order--to lock in profits in case the price takes a tumble. Folks who are "in the money" on JOE should already have their "stop loss" locked and loaded before JOE comes out their earnings before the bell tomorrow. If the earnings don't look too good, the speculators will dump and run and the shorts will be buying the drinks. Should be real interesting. Personally I think the stock is overpriced and would be a buy @ $50.

(The CEO already took his usual monthly 20,000-share payday on Feb 1st at $63-and-change. :D )

[iqueequeg]

I think they'll miss their number. It seems to me there are very few sales going on at Watercolor/sound/west.

[goofer44]

All the housing stocks got hit today on Toll bros guidance. If JOE goes to the 50 -55 level it will be a great long term buy. Scale down from 55 on your buy orders. It looks like it is heading down to that level on the long term charts ( 5 year chart ) Buy straw hats in the winter !!!

[goofer44]

That's the purpose of a "stop loss" order--to lock in profits in case the price takes a tumble. Folks who are "in the money" on JOE should already have their "stop loss" locked and loaded before JOE comes out their earnings before the bell tomorrow. If the earnings don't look too good, the speculators will dump and run and the shorts will be buying the drinks. Should be real interesting. Personally I think the stock is overpriced and would be a buy @ $50.

(The CEO already took his usual monthly 20,000-share payday on Feb 1st at $63-and-change. :D )
The time for the stop loss was 10% below the high sale. If JOE reports a disappointing number and poor guidance before the opening, your stops might get set of at a horrendous opening price!! Unless of course you have a stop loss limit order. Stop lost orders are very tricky and can almost guarantee that you will be whipsawed !!

[John]

SHELLY,

You continue to confuse me. Where is your stop-loss number? Why are you saying all this yet being so coy?
:idontno:

[goofer44]

JOE reports 49 cents for the qtr. 4 cents light. Guidance going forward is on the very low end of wall street expectations. imo, not so bad given the current climmate. i still think the 50-55 range is the spot to buy. could easily get there especially if the fed raises fed funds to 5% or higher. be patient.

[goofer44]

DJ St. Joe CEO Sees A Strong Florida Housing Market >JOE


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--St. Joe Co. (JOE) Chief Executive Peter Rummell said he is "anxious to get to spring" after a year of hurricanes that slowed down the Florida housing market.

In a CNBC interview Wednesday, Rummell said he's "very bullish" on the Florida housing market and economy.

"Florida is an incredible engine and the fastest growing economy in the union," Rummell said.

The real-estate developer's full fiscal year was hurt by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, followed by a recent cyclical downturn, Rummell said.

Earlier Wednesday, St. Joe reported a 32% increase in fourth-quarter earnings.

-By Christopher Hinton, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5285


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

[SHELLY]

Resort Residential Sales Slowed and Primary Residential Stable in Second Half of 2005

“Traffic and sales activity did slow in the third and fourth quarters, particularly in our resort residential projects,” said Rummell. “We think an active hurricane season certainly played a role.”

“Traffic and activity at our resort towns began to pick up somewhat over the holidays, and we are looking forward to the spring market with cautious optimism,” said Rummell. “However, resort sales have remained slow thus far in the first quarter, traditionally the off-season for Northwest Florida. We do not expect a return to the fevered market of the past few years, but a return to something closer to the historical norm. If anything, some of the speculators may have exited, and the market ahead may be less heated, but more sustainable.”


2006 OUTLOOK
“Our outlook for 2006 reflects both increased opportunity and greater near-term uncertainty,” said JOE’s CFO Anthony M. Corriggio. “We anticipate that the year’s results will reflect positive contributions from new residential products and projects as well as continued solid performance from JOE’s primary home communities. However, the year’s results are also expected to reflect the effects of the recent slowdown in sales of existing resort residential product. We continue to expect solid contributions from the St. Joe Land Company and from St. Joe Commercial.”
---------------------------

In other words...it's different now. I wouldn't be looking for a run-up to $85 (like when JOE was on fire) again for some time.

[goofer44]

Joe got hit today. get ready to bid 55 for some stock. maybe for a 20% position. scale down to 50 to get your full position. buy strawhats in winter. everyone hates housing stocks. time to nibble on JOE.

[DuneDog]

Joe got hit today. get ready to bid 55 for some stock. maybe for a 20% position. scale down to 50 to get your full position. buy strawhats in winter. everyone hates housing stocks. time to nibble on JOE.

What does buy straw hats mean? :idontno:

[SHELLY]

What does buy straw hats mean? :idontno:

That's the "formal wear" for JOE's latest and greatest offering of FloridaWild...40+ acre plots of pine trees, swamp and mosquitos. :roll: This baby is going to $50 for sure (IMO).

[goofer44]

"buying straw hats in the winter" is an expression that means buying an item when demand is low. Buying a SMALL amount of JOE now is like buying something when demand is low. It is on sale when it hits 55.
when it is at 50 it is marked "clearance"

[goofer44]

The price of st. joe is nearing a buy point. currently trading at 52. time to buy a 20% position. if it trades to 50, buy another 20%. downside risk, imo, is 48.

[GaltsGulch]

Downside risk is only to $48. I disagree. I think downside risk on JOE is to $30/share, and if I was looking to make money in the short term, I would stay on the short side of this one.

They basically told the street with their new new EPS guidance for 2006, which lowered the midpoint of the range by 25%, that the new lowered guidance will only hold up if demand picks up for the rest of the year, saying they are optimistic they could have a strong second half.
BUT, in the same press release, they try to manage their longer term credibility by warning that "the size of resale inventories suggest it WILL BE SOME TIME before we return to a favorable balance between supply and demand" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In other words, we're optimistic demand will pick up and hence our new (lowered) earnings guidance (which depends on a pick up) however, be forewarned it doesn't appear that the situation will get back into balance any time soon, with the thousands of lots and properties for sale along 30a and elsewhere.

So when they miss next qtr, and lower the guidance for the year yet again, they can point back to that statement they made today wherein they cited a supply demand imbalance and said it will likely take SOME TIME.. and simply say it is taking SOME TIME, and we hope it will pick up in springtime of 2007...

and so it goes on wall street.

[goofer44]

the stock market is a discounting mechanism. anything can happen on wall st and joe may sell down to the 30's. but imo, i think the stock has come down from 85 to 52 for a reason. some of the bad news and disappointment is baked in, BUT NOT ALL THE BAD NEWS. that is why i suggest easing in and get 20% position now. then scale down. i think if lightening struck and someone came in and bid for the company ( A FINANCIAL BUYER OR A STRATEGIC BUYER ) You would feel lousy about missing it and not having any stock. it is always best to have a small position which you can work around then no position at all. no one can pick the tops or bottoms, but it seems that this is a decent level to get started. i believe in long term investing and having a 3 year horizon. with that in mind , i think now is a good time to nibble on joe. if you are lucky enough to be short, it is a good time to buy some in.

[GaltsGulch]

i didn't realize you have a 3 year time horizon with your trades. With that in mind, I don't think your strategy is too unreasonable at all... I try to call tops and bottoms in stocks, and don't always get it right. I shorted JOE at 81 and covered nervously only 4 points lower, so I left a lot on the table there..

I shorted again at 60, added to short position yesterday before earnings in the mid 50's and added the 3rd leg of this trade today in the $52 range...

So in a sense, we're both scaling into our positions. If I had a crystal ball, i would have put my entire acct. short on JOE months ago but I don't.

Seems that all we disagree about is the direction of the stock... and I can't say I will be right, just looking at 138 months of inventory now on the books in South Walton, and I feel that the next move in St. Joe will be down, but I realize that there is a valuation buffer which is somewhere north of the timber value of their land, so probably not as low as I have previosly cited...

I think your $48 target as a bottom, is probably closer than my previous target of $30 to what actually forms as a bottom on the name - I was just probably cheerleading due to my short position vested interest. My best honest guess is that it goes down another 15%, and hence why I am risking even more capital on that bet today.