Interview w/ St. Joe CEO [Archive]

GreenWaveDave

01-07-2006, 12:26 PM

St. Joe CEO sees strong housing demand
Peter Rummell, CEO of The St. Joe Company, Florida's largest landowner, says retiring baby boomers continue to move into the state in large numbers, resulting in strong demand for housing despite hurricanes and higher interest rates.

Hopefully this link will work......
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=joe&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwqn (http://)

The St. Joe CEO did a broadcast interview on CBS MarketWatch. He blamed the relative slowdown in '05 on the early and strong hurricane season and the negative media frenzy. The statistic he likes the most is that on average 1,200 people are moving into FL per day. He thinks we are just at the beginning of a boom in FL that will last for years to come.....

SHELLY

01-07-2006, 07:48 PM

Peter Rummell, CEO of The St. Joe Company, Florida's largest landowner, says retiring baby boomers continue to move into the state in large numbers, resulting in strong demand for housing despite hurricanes and higher interest rates.
The St. Joe CEO did a broadcast interview on CBS MarketWatch. He thinks we are just at the beginning of a boom in FL that will last for years to come.....

He certainly HOPES the boom will last...considering he's been cashing out his shares of JOE hand-over-fist for months & months:

Rummell Insider Selling of JOE (http://biz.yahoo.com/t/59/1015.html)

But hey, $1.3+ million per month don't go as far in Florida as it used to--the company's shareholders certainly understand that. :blink:

GreenWaveDave

01-08-2006, 05:24 PM

Unplugged

01-08-2006, 07:24 PM

SHELLY

01-08-2006, 07:27 PM

Maybe they'll be the focus of your upcoming thesis.

Not the focus...but it's included.

pk305

01-08-2006, 09:40 PM

Donna

01-08-2006, 11:08 PM

Shelly is a fictional character created to inspire misgivings and virtual angst. He/she is not part of the world of accademia or of business. Shelly is a signpost in a two-dimensional world: fear and loathing. :pissed: :( :eek:

Cil

01-09-2006, 06:03 AM

Good call Shelly. You're right, St. Joe is probably the next Enron. I bet they won't even exist in a year or two once everyone realizes all the land they own is swamp land........You called it!

.
That's a slight exaggeration, I'd say.
The amount of scrutiny St Joe receives would forestall any Enron-type of scenario. And not all their land is wet.
It's been interesting watching what other developers try to get away with: I've seen a couple doozies in the short time I've been here.
But you don't read about those because they don't make good copy the way St Joe does.
BTW: your link doesn't work for me, Dave, but here is a link that does have the "approximately 1,200 people" quote
Rummell (www.starfl.com/SiteProcessor.cfm?Template=Templates/Details.cfm&StoryID=34701&Section=To%20The%20Editor)

STL Don

01-09-2006, 09:47 AM

Smiling JOe

01-09-2006, 10:30 AM

He certainly HOPES the boom will last...considering he's been cashing out his shares of JOE hand-over-fist for months & months:

Rummell Insider Selling of JOE (http://biz.yahoo.com/t/59/1015.html)

But hey, $1.3+ million per month don't go as far in Florida as it used to--the company's shareholders certainly understand that. :blink:

The founders of Google are also selling stock, about $43,000,000 per week. Does this mean Google, too, is headed south? (Not trying to change the subject) Many people think that Google, not Microsoft, is set to take over the world.

csamps

01-09-2006, 10:41 AM

Cil- could you elaborate on some of these examples? I'd be curious.

It's been interesting watching what other developers try to get away with: I've seen a couple doozies in the short time I've been here.
But you don't read about those because they don't make good copy the way St Joe does.

GreenWaveDave

01-09-2006, 11:52 AM

That's a slight exaggeration, I'd say.
The amount of scrutiny St Joe receives would forestall any Enron-type of scenario. And not all their land is wet.
It's been interesting watching what other developers try to get away with: I've seen a couple doozies in the short time I've been here.
But you don't read about those because they don't make good copy the way St Joe does.
BTW: your link doesn't work for me, Dave, but here is a link that does have the "approximately 1,200 people" quote
Rummell (www.starfl.com/SiteProcessor.cfm?Template=Templates/Details.cfm&StoryID=34701&Section=To%20The%20Editor)

I don't know why I can't get the link to work. Sorry. If you want to hear the interview, just go to www.marketwatch.com, enter the ticker symbol JOE, and you'll see related stories with the stock quote.

FYI, my cynicism on JOE was not real, just for Shelly's benefit. Of course I don't think they're the next Enron!

pgurney

01-09-2006, 11:54 AM

He certainly HOPES the boom will last...considering he's been cashing out his shares of JOE hand-over-fist for months & months:

Rummell Insider Selling of JOE (http://biz.yahoo.com/t/59/1015.html)

But hey, $1.3+ million per month don't go as far in Florida as it used to--the company's shareholders certainly understand that. :blink:

Since the stocks and options are a significant portion of his compensation package, and his sells have been fairly regular for about 18 months, and they started just after he excercised a large option order, and they occurred during a period of increasing stock value....I don't see why anyone would be concerned about this "insider selling". :confused:

kurt

01-09-2006, 01:06 PM

I don't know why I can't get the link to work. Sorry. If you want to hear the interview, just go to www.marketwatch.com (http://www.marketwatch.com/), enter the ticker symbol JOE, and you'll see related stories with the stock quote.

FYI, my cynicism on JOE was not real, just for Shelly's benefit. Of course I don't think they're the next Enron!

try this next time

<sarcasm> </sarcasm>

SHELLY

01-09-2006, 01:30 PM

Shelly, I may have missed this somewhere....is your thesis for a degree or for a publication or specifically what? You may have mentioned this previously, but I have an interest in publication and am more than curious?
Thanks!

It's my graduate thesis. The title is still up in the air....but I've had to reject my first choice: "The Real Estate Boom: Investing in Dot-Condos at Enron-by-the Sea." :funn:

Cil

01-09-2006, 01:39 PM

Cil- could you elaborate on some of these examples? I'd be curious.

.
I was afraid somebody would ask this! ;-)
I really don't want to name any names, but one guy simply began putting in a new housing development along 30-A. He removed trees, and had gotten as far as thinking about putting in a sewer system. Something like three months into the project, everything halted.
There was a minor detail: The guy apparently didn't have a permit.

Advance The Man

01-09-2006, 02:48 PM

You're getting it mixed up a little bit. "insider trading" is illegal, but "insider selling" makes no sense. You can sell shares if you want. Do I smell jealousy?

He certainly HOPES the boom will last...considering he's been cashing out his shares of JOE hand-over-fist for months & months:

Rummell Insider Selling of JOE (http://biz.yahoo.com/t/59/1015.html)

But hey, $1.3+ million per month don't go as far in Florida as it used to--the company's shareholders certainly understand that. :blink:

Rita

01-09-2006, 02:56 PM

Kimmifunn

01-09-2006, 03:03 PM

SHELLY

01-09-2006, 04:11 PM

You're getting it mixed up a little bit. "insider trading" is illegal, but "insider selling" makes no sense.

It does if you're familiar with the stock market. :cool:

Advance The Man

01-09-2006, 04:18 PM

Many CEO's and others on the Board will sell at a pre-determined number. The number of shares is also pre-determined. I stand by my comment that saying someone is 'insider selling' makes no sense. If Rummels doesn't sell any of his shares, do you think it makes Joe more money? The answer is no. He is the CEO, but can do whatever he wants with his shares, as long as he registers it with the SEC.

pgurney

01-09-2006, 04:24 PM

It does if you're familiar with the stock market. :cool:

Then please explain.

Miss Kitty

01-09-2006, 04:42 PM

OR a signpost going nowhere?

Runaround Sue...I mean SHELLY!!! ;-) At least SHELLY has a one track mind!

beclareesq

01-09-2006, 05:35 PM

pk305

01-09-2006, 06:48 PM

It's my graduate thesis. The title is still up in the air....but I've had to reject my first choice: "The Real Estate Boom: Investing in Dot-Condos at Enron-by-the Sea." :funn:

Thanks Shelly for your response.....Is it possible that the discussions/opinions, etc on this board are part of your research (thesis) paper?? An experiment of sorts perhaps? Again, very curions.....
Thanks!

Smiling JOe

01-09-2006, 07:06 PM

Let me throw out a challenge, in support of the much maligned Shelley, could someone who has no dog in the fight, or maybe just doesn't presently own real estate in South Walton County, please make the argument that the current asking prices are the "market"."Market" price is the price which people are willing to pay at the current point in time. With the lack of sales recently, market prices are lower than asking price. You must look at sold price for recent sales.

Chickpea

01-10-2006, 12:35 AM

We moved here recently and have not had the luxury of buying or owning land/houses earlier on. We got here about 2 years ago and when we were told prices of houses we almost had heart attacks and would say, " you want how much for THAT?????". Needless to say I could kick myself again and again and again...now we are tired of renting, have decided that we want to stay in Sowal and are buying a house. Probably paying too much but we are hoping that our investment will be a wise one. We are not expecting double digits appreciation per year but hope that prices on single family houses in Sowal will continue to slowly grow over the next 2-5 years.

Paula

01-10-2006, 07:05 AM

Thanks Shelly for your response.....Is it possible that the discussions/opinions, etc on this board are part of your research (thesis) paper?? An experiment of sorts perhaps? Again, very curions.....
Thanks!

I had the same thought. So, if you post anything related to real estate or in response to Shelly (or anything else here), it could become a quotation (used in or out of context) in a thesis. There are ethical guidelines regarding academic research, and I'm not sure where this would fall.

Regarding online research, here's something interesting: There was research done in the UK to find the world's funniest joke. People all over the world submitted jokes online and then people would vote on the funniest joke online. Some of the jokes are very funny, resulting in a book that I believe is called Laughlab. The interesting thing is that humorist Dave Barry encouraged people from the US to influence the study outcomes. Here's what the researcher said (you can find the study results and jokes at http://www.laughlab.com):

"The American data proved to be somewhat strange. Dave Barry is a well known humourist whose columns are syndicated in many American newspapers. In January 2002 he kindly devoted an entire column to LaughLab. At the end of the column he urged readers to submit jokes that simply ended with the punch line: ‘There's a weasel chomping on my privates.’ Within just a few days we had received over 1500 ‘weasel chomping’ jokes."

Anyway, the point is we could take Dave Barry's lead and all respond to some of the strange real-estate threads comments with a similar non-sense phrase (we don't have to use Dave Barry's phrase, though that would be OK, too) rather than respond to real estate comments which are getting increasingly sarcastic and less useful (for Shelly, it could be a thesis avoidance strategy). Now that would make it fun to read about real estate again and would certainly be as useful!

Miss Kitty

01-10-2006, 07:15 AM

It does if you're familiar with the stock market. :cool:

There's a weasel chomping on RO's privates!

jdarg

01-10-2006, 07:18 AM

There's a weasel chomping on RO's privates!

How did I know you would say this? :idontno: :floor:

Miss Kitty

01-10-2006, 07:31 AM

How did I know you would say this? :idontno: :floor:

Enjoy it while it lasts...Daddy-O is still asleep!!! Don't you love being the early rising brats????

jdarg

01-10-2006, 07:34 AM

Enjoy it while it lasts...Daddy-O is still asleep!!! Don't you love being the early rising brats????

Wonder what other threads we can tangentize this morning? :biggrin:

Miss Kitty

01-10-2006, 07:39 AM

Wonder what other threads we can tangentize this morning? :biggrin:

Where you lead, I will follow!!! We are quite a team...ya' know? And audie is a nice addition to the Early Morning Show!

I really should be folding laundry!

jdarg

01-10-2006, 07:40 AM

Where you lead, I will follow!!! We are quite a team...ya' know? And audie is a nice addition to the Early Morning Show!

I really should be folding laundry!

And I need to wake and feed the Princess. And do something with myself or the dog groomers are going to want to groom me!

Kimmifunn

01-10-2006, 08:12 AM

<------------------Take it to the lounge ladies. ;-) :rolling: :rolling:

jdarg

01-10-2006, 08:17 AM

<------------------Take it to the lounge ladies. ;-) :rolling: :rolling:

Dangit- i thought we WERE in the lounge. I never know where I am.

Kimmifunn

01-10-2006, 08:18 AM

Dangit- i thought we WERE in the lounge. I never know where I am.
:funn: I had to. I got to play Kurt! :rolling:

jdarg

01-10-2006, 08:20 AM

:funn: I had to. I got to play Kurt! :rolling:

He probably cringes when he wakes up and checks the board. Pretty soon he will need a shot of tequila first.

kurt

01-10-2006, 08:32 AM

I had the same thought. So, if you post anything related to real estate or in response to Shelly (or anything else here), it could become a quotation (used in or out of context) in a thesis. There are ethical guidelines regarding academic research, and I'm not sure where this would fall.

Regarding online research, here's something interesting: There was research done in the UK to find the world's funniest joke. People all over the world submitted jokes online and then people would vote on the funniest joke online. Some of the jokes are very funny, resulting in a book that I believe is called Laughlab. The interesting thing is that humorist Dave Barry encouraged people from the US to influence the study outcomes. Here's what the researcher said (you can find the study results and jokes at http://www.laughlab.com (http://www.laughlab.com/)):

"The American data proved to be somewhat strange. Dave Barry is a well known humourist whose columns are syndicated in many American newspapers. In January 2002 he kindly devoted an entire column to LaughLab. At the end of the column he urged readers to submit jokes that simply ended with the punch line: ‘There's a weasel chomping on my privates.’ Within just a few days we had received over 1500 ‘weasel chomping’ jokes."

Anyway, the point is we could take Dave Barry's lead and all respond to some of the strange real-estate threads comments with a similar non-sense phrase (we don't have to use Dave Barry's phrase, though that would be OK, too) rather than respond to real estate comments which are getting increasingly sarcastic and less useful (for Shelly, it could be a thesis avoidance strategy). Now that would make it fun to read about real estate again and would certainly be as useful!

Or I could ban her. If Sueshore doesn't get it first. :roll:

Smiling JOe

01-10-2006, 08:45 AM

He probably cringes when he wakes up and checks the board. Pretty soon he will need a shot of tequila first.Well, he is well stocked if he needs to do that. :D

Miss Kitty

01-10-2006, 08:50 AM

Or I could ban her. If Sueshore doesn't get it first. :roll:

Oh no...Daddy-O!!! Ban Miss Kitty? :razz: ...what is razz?

Rita

01-10-2006, 09:37 AM

GOOD morning! :biggrin:

beachmouse

01-10-2006, 09:51 AM

Smiling JOe

01-10-2006, 10:07 AM

Though a quote in an academic paper is probably going to require a citation with a real name attached to it. I can't see turning in a paper with endnotes citing people named Kimmifunn, Gypsea, Smilin' Joe, etc. instead of given names.

The discussion boards at salon.com required you to post under your real name at one time, but later not only allowed but encouraged pseudonyms because they had a run of outside journalists using the boards to get quick quotes for their stories, and the pseuds effectively stopped the journalists from being able to do that. Now, if you want to use someone else's words from there, you have to e-mail the poster for a real name, which the poster may or may not give out.
Perhaps his thesis is not on real estate at all, but rather, something related to internet communities and relationships. Then, Shelly would be able to use our funn names. :idontno: Either that, or Shelly is a stock broker who has been hurting for business. Shelly never responded to my earlier post with this guess. If Shelly is writing a thesis, I sure hope he/she actually reads the references which she/he quotes. By the way, Shelly, I think your thesis is subject is much too broad. You should narrow your focus. ;-)

peapod1980

01-10-2006, 10:10 AM

Oh no...Daddy-O!!! Ban Miss Kitty? :razz: ...what is razz?
Razz, short for raspberry, you know the funny noise...?
There's a weasel chomping on my privates, by the way.

Kimmifunn

01-10-2006, 10:12 AM

Perhaps his thesis is not on real estate at all, but rather, something related to internet communities and relationships. Then, Shelly would be able to use our funn names. :idontno: Either that, or Shelly is a stock broker who has been hurting for business. Shelly never responded to my earlier post with this guess. If Shelly is writing a thesis, I sure hope he/she actually reads the references which she/he quotes. By the way, Shelly, I think your thesis is subject is much too broad. You should narrow your focus. ;-)
I love to be quoted. Just make sure you know it's 2 m's with an i and 2 n's.
Ok?

Miss Kitty

01-10-2006, 10:17 AM

Razz, short for raspberry, you know the funny noise...?
There's a weasel chomping on my privates, by the way.

YAY....I will be :banned: with the PEA!!!!

I bet SHELLY is happy about the Dow hitting 11,000!!! Should we sell all of our real estate and buy stocks now????

SHELLY

01-10-2006, 10:34 AM

Thanks Shelly for your response.....Is it possible that the discussions/opinions, etc on this board are part of your research (thesis) paper?? An experiment of sorts perhaps? Again, very curions.....
Thanks!

No, I wouldn't use any discussions/opinions from this board in my thesis...are you kidding?? (My objective is to get a decent grade.) I do however, on occasion, use the board as a source for links to news/stories about real estate.

It's no surprise that I'm a real estate "bear" (I was a dot.com "bear" as well). I debate the real estate issue because I find the subject interesting and the opposing responses informative. I won't change my writing style or opinion, so I imagine I'll be booted from board because I have a different viewpoint--but it won't be because I used profanity or personally attacked anyone. I understand.

SHELLY

01-10-2006, 10:39 AM

I bet SHELLY is happy about the Dow hitting 11,000!!! Should we sell all of our real estate and buy stocks now????

Not really...personally, I hate it when ANY market makes irrational moves--especially on the "up" side. The economy is nuts right now--diversify, diversify, diversify.

Smiling JOe

01-10-2006, 10:42 AM

-but it won't be because I used profanity or personally attacked anyone. I understand.
You personally attacked the State of Florida's Sanitation Inspectors for failing to inspect the electrical systems in the local restaurants. :floor::floor::floor:

Rita

01-10-2006, 10:46 AM

No, I wouldn't use any discussions/opinions from this board in my thesis...are you kidding?? (My objective is to get a decent grade.) I do however, on occasion, use the board as a source for links to news/stories about real estate.

It's no surprise that I'm a real estate "bear" (I was a dot.com "bear" as well). I debate the real estate issue because I find the subject interesting and the opposing responses informative. I won't change my writing style or opinion, so I imagine I'll be booted from board because I have a different viewpoint--but it won't be because I used profanity or personally attacked anyone. I understand.

shelly,

Few, if any, people on this board are opposed to different viewpoints. In fact many of us welcome them. Most people DO arch up (like a kitty :biggrin:) at inflamatory statements and negativity.

Do some research on your posts and you'll likely come up with a % in the high 90s for negative posts vs nonnegative.

My mamma done told me to stay clear of negative people! :lol:

SHELLY

01-10-2006, 10:52 AM

"Market" price is the price which people are willing to pay at the current point in time. With the lack of sales recently, market prices are lower than asking price. You must look at sold price for recent sales.

Good answer.

Market price is determined when the check clears the bank--"paper profits" and comps don't count.

SHELLY

01-10-2006, 10:55 AM

You personally attacked the State of Florida's Sanitation Inspectors for failing to inspect the electrical systems in the local restaurants. :floor::floor::floor:

Sorry Joe, didn't realize you were a Florida sanitation inspector.

Smiling JOe

01-10-2006, 10:57 AM

Sorry Joe, didn't realize you were a Florida sanitation inspector.I am not, but you did "personally attack" them for not inspecting them for something that they are not responsible for inspecting. :floor: -- Just thought it was funny, and that your rules work for you only when you want them to do so.

steeleing1

01-10-2006, 11:06 AM

Sorry Joe, didn't realize you were a Florida sanitation inspector.

Ooooooooh, good one. :lolabove:

Miss Kitty

01-10-2006, 11:15 AM

I am not, but you did "personally attack" them for not inspecting them for something that they are not responsible for inspecting. :floor: -- Just thought it was funny, and that your rules work for you only when you want them to do so.

Do as I say, not as I do????

SHELLY....I have learned not to buy a condo in PCB from you. Not that I was in the market, but I did learn not to.

I think Rita is correct. So much of what you write here sounds/comes across as negative. I have a hard time listening and believing anything a person talks about on the outer edges of the bell shaped curve...all postive or all negative.

SHELLY

01-10-2006, 11:49 AM

shelly,

Do some research on your posts and you'll likely come up with a % in the high 90s for negative posts vs nonnegative.

90% of my posts are about real estate...so it makes sense that if the overwhelming majority of folks on the board have a positive view of real estate investment, it's no surprise that my posts would be viewed as "negative." (or an "opposing viewpoint.")

A wise boss once said: "If you agree with everything I say, I wouldn't need you."

SHELLY

01-10-2006, 12:01 PM

Then please explain.

Insider selling is the legal sales of stock options by company execs and employees.

Insider trading is the illegal selling/purchasing of stock based on information that is not available to the general public.

Insider selling by execs (with no insider buying) sends somewhat "negative" signals to shareholders that execs don't totally believe the information they are releasing to the public.

JOE is a solid company with good financials, but (as is the case with many companies) they are overcompensating their execs; and yes, it does come out of the shareholder's pockets.

Rita

01-10-2006, 12:03 PM

"negative." (or an "opposing viewpoint.")

There is a difference between "negativity" and "opposing viewpoints".
One is healthy! The other is not, imo. ;-)

SHELLY

01-10-2006, 12:06 PM

There is a difference between "negativity" and "opposing viewpoints".
One is healthy! The other is not, imo. ;-)

IMO "negativity" is subjective.

Smiling JOe

01-10-2006, 12:07 PM

...
Insider selling by execs (with no insider buying) sends somewhat "negative" signals to shareholders that execs don't totally believe the information they are releasing to the public....

Obviously, all companies are not always releasing positive predictions for upcoming quarters, so when an exec sells, it is not always contradictive to the company statements and forecasts. Your statements assume that there is misconduct on behalf of company execs, which is sometimes the case, but not the norm.

Rita

01-10-2006, 12:08 PM

"Negativity" is subjective.

I'm sure you see it that way.

peapod1980

01-10-2006, 12:17 PM

No, I wouldn't use any discussions/opinions from this board in my thesis...are you kidding?? (My objective is to get a decent grade.)

so I imagine I'll be booted from board because I have a different viewpoint--but it won't be because I used profanity or personally attacked anyone. I understand.
I was really bad at math in school, but I think this doesn't add up. :idontno:

SHELLY

01-10-2006, 01:16 PM

I was really bad at math in school, but I think this doesn't add up. :idontno:

I think you believe that statement is a "personal" attack?

Read Beachmouse's reply about citations in academic writing.

I can see it now: "According to 'Sandy Toes' and 'Beach Monkey,' purchasing presale condos on Panama City Beach is a viable investment vehicle for childrens' college funds."

Smiling JOe

01-10-2006, 01:26 PM

I think you believe that statement is a "personal" attack?

Read Beachmouse's reply about citations in academic writing.

I can see it now: "According to 'Sandy Toes' and 'Beach Monkey,' purchasing presale condos on Panama City Beach is a viable investment vehicle for childrens' college funds."So does changing my name, and feeding incorrect words into my mouth classify as a personal attack? You are a real winner, Shelly. Thanks for contributing. :D

SHELLY

01-10-2006, 01:31 PM

Obviously, all companies are not always releasing positive predictions for upcoming quarters, so when an exec sells, it is not always contradictive to the company statements and forecasts. Your statements assume that there is misconduct on behalf of company execs, which is sometimes the case, but not the norm.

Not misconduct...just over compensated (not a newsflash in the corporate world).

Every investor is different, personally, considering the current economy and given the choice between investing in a company where the insiders are saying good things and not buying shares in their own company and those who are saying positive things and purchasing shares in their companies--I would tend to choose the latter.

SHELLY

01-10-2006, 01:34 PM

So does changing my name, and feeding incorrect words into my mouth classify as a personal attack? You are a real winner, Shelly. Thanks for contributing. :D

My lord! And I even went out of my way to come up with names that weren't on the board...wayyyy too sensitive.

Rita

01-10-2006, 01:41 PM

:blink:

GreenWaveDave

01-10-2006, 01:41 PM

I think I created a monster.

Maybe we should just close this one out, learn from our mistakes, and move on to a new thread.......

Rita

01-10-2006, 01:43 PM

I think I created a monster.

Maybe we should just close this one out, learn from our mistakes, and move on to a new thread.......
:clap_1: Chomp!

Smiling JOe

01-10-2006, 01:45 PM

Not misconduct...just over compensated (not a newsflash in the corporate world).

Every investor is different, personally, considering the current economy and given the choice between investing in a company where the insiders are saying good things and not buying shares in their own company and those who are saying positive things and purchasing shares in their companies--I would tend to choose the latter.
I have positive things to say about many parcels of property, but I am not buying them, because I don't have the pockets to buy everything that I deem to be a good value. I wonder if this happens with the execs which you mention in general. Also, perhaps they are smart enought to diversify. I am sure they have their share (pun intended) of their own company. ;-)

SHELLY

01-10-2006, 01:54 PM

I think I created a monster.

Maybe we should just close this one out, learn from our mistakes, and move on to a new thread.......

OK...let's wait until after JOE reports the quarter ;-)

pgurney

01-10-2006, 01:58 PM

Not misconduct...just over compensated (not a newsflash in the corporate world).

Every investor is different, personally, considering the current economy and given the choice between investing in a company where the insiders are saying good things and not buying shares in their own company and those who are saying positive things and purchasing shares in their companies--I would tend to choose the latter.

I don't understand why anyone would expect Peter Rummell to be buying StJoe stock. In 2004, when he began selling, I believe he owned something close to 2 million shares and share options. If he's selling at the rate of 20,000 per month it will take over 8 years to sell them all. He'll be 68 then. And since it's a significant portion of his compensation package...the compensation doesn't mean as much in the form of a stock certificate....just like --"paper profits" and comps don't count.

Cap'nCrazy

01-10-2006, 02:13 PM

A wise boss once said: "If you agree with everything I say, I wouldn't need you."[/QUOTE]

A wise boss does appreciate well thought out opinions that are different from his or her own but not strctly negative opinions. Who would? :idontno: How depressing!!! I certainly wouldn't want to go to work everyday and surround myself with negative people. Would you?

Gypsea

01-10-2006, 02:16 PM

Oops, that was me, Gypsea and not the Cap'n.

jdarg

01-10-2006, 02:18 PM

Oops, that was me, Gypsea and not the Cap'n.

But that Cap'n avatar looks forceful for your statement!;-)

Gypsea

01-10-2006, 02:22 PM

It does, doesn,t it. I should have left it the way it was as I am sure that he would agree with that statement.

pk305

01-10-2006, 03:19 PM

From Paula: I had the same thought. So, if you post anything related to real estate or in response to Shelly (or anything else here), it could become a quotation (used in or out of context) in a thesis.

Thanks Paula, at least I know I'm not crazy for having this thought!!

I'm laughing hysterically :rolling: at this entire discussion....perhaps we can call ourselves

"HOT BUTTON" GUINEA PIGS!!
or something guinea pigs....you guys are a lot more creative!

Love being in this :rolling: research lab!! January has never been this much fun!!

Paula

01-10-2006, 03:33 PM

I think I created a monster.

Maybe we should just close this one out, learn from our mistakes, and move on to a new thread.......

GreenWaveDave:

The topic is a very useful one. I have some Joe stock and am holding on to it. I have mutual funds that range from conservative to risky to balance the risk with Joe. And I own property that I love and will always love in SoWal so I'm emotionally as well as financially invested in the community.

I was concerned, though, that most real estate discussions are now being hijacked by one-track-negative thinking and it was getting hard to learn anything or build on each other's comments. I felt like one or two people were getting their thrills from "yanking our chains" (as we used to say growing up), so the discussions were getting increasingly tiresome rather than helpful. So, let's see if we can get back on track with this one because understanding Joe, as well as other real estate issues, can be very interesting and useful.

As for me, I'm hanging in there with Joe, in part, because I don't have too much invested -- just enough to make it interesting. I've read the book Green Empire and I felt it was cautiously optimistic about Joe in terms of Joe's impact on the environment (that was my read of it, someone else could have read it differently). I watch the analyst reports and they are all over the map regarding Joe, though most suggest holding on to stock (and I assume they know about the CEO selling shares). The analysts on Yahoo say "hold" or "buy" -- not sell. Schwab rates it poorly. Reuters says the average is "outperform" with "buy" and "hold". Standard and Poor gives it a "b" which is low-middle in their rankings.

Personally, I try to think long-term and not short-term. For example, I ask myself whether the active and powerful hurricane seasons are a long-term or short-term thing and does this make it bad for 30A or will it increase values on 30A because so much of the area is so high up on dunes. I assume people will continue to want to move to Florida and the coast, and they will be increasingly interested in places with high elevations. And, of course, I do my best to make the SoWal community the kind of community people want to buy into so that they, too, can enjoy "the good life".

So, thanks GreenWaveDave for starting this thread.

GreenWaveDave

01-11-2006, 12:39 PM

Speaking of the stock market, I already see the writing on the wall.....

Many of us (including Peter Rummel, JOE CEO) feel that much of the real estate slow down in '05 has been driven by the negative media frenzy. Well now I think the tide is going to turn.

It appears that the media has found it's new focus, which is being bullish on the stock market in '06. Watch, all you will see and hear about now is how great the stock market and economy look moving forward. Real Estate bashing will start to loose it's luster with the media and I think that in turn will do nothing but help ease unwarranted fear and uncertainty in the minds of potential real estate investors.

Smiling JOe

01-11-2006, 12:43 PM

GreenWaveDave

01-11-2006, 01:03 PM

True..... I've seen real estate boom simultaneously with the stock market in certain areas, as many people just feel more confident and wealthier in general. They may look at their paper gains in the stock market and feel rich enough to go and buy more real estate. You're right though, some investors may go more toward whatever the hot investement of the day is.

SHELLY

01-11-2006, 01:50 PM

GreenWaveDave:

The topic is a very useful one. I have some Joe stock and am holding on to it. As for me, I'm hanging in there with Joe, in part, because I don't have too much invested -- just enough to make it interesting. Personally, I try to think long-term and not short-term.

IMO:

JOE is a fairly decent company to hold long term. Much of JOE's "low hanging fruit" (beachfront) has been picked and previous earnings will be difficult if not impossible to meet or beat in the coming years. Developing the timber property into useable "affordable" housing won't be as easy or profitable.
(Clearing and selling beachfront lots in already established "high cost" areas with roads, facilities and infrastructure during a real estate boom was a no-brainer.)

Folks who chase double-digit returns will be moving out of real estate this year and into other investments (international or precious metals maybe?). I suspect some double-digit hopefuls are holding their stock until JOE reports earnings (@ early Feb)--if the company issues "not so good" guidance before the release, the speculators will dump and run and the stock will go down. JOE's YEARLY report (released with the quarterly) should look VERY good and you may see a pop (probably triggering some "short" covering) which may be a good opportunity to take some profits off the table before it retreats and flatlines later.

If you're holding long-term, JOE isn't a bad bet to hold as a real estate play in a well-diversified portfolio, but I don't see it ever matching the returns it enjoyed in the past year or so in the near term. (Some who've doubled (or more) on this stock, already took some profits off the table and are now playing with JOE's money.) :cool:

Again IMO.

Paula

01-11-2006, 04:56 PM

Let's hope you're right, Shelly. I bought at 73 this summer, watched it go up to above 80, and then watched it go down to in the high 50s and now up into the 60s. My husband had Whole Foods for a while several years ago, then dumped it when it was going down thinking people weren't going to spend so much money on organic and specialty foods (figured the organic food thing was a passing trend). He sure wishes he held onto it (and we happily buy most of our fish and meat at Whole Foods). Anyway, if Joe tanks, I'll just be happy I'm diversified!

The CEO of Joe used to be a sr. exec. at Disney, so I figure he knows how to "create great places" (though I'm not a fan of Disney World -- never been there but probably will go sometime in the next 4 years or so with the kids).

SHELLY

01-12-2006, 12:18 PM

The CEO of Joe used to be a sr. exec. at Disney, so I figure he knows how to "create great places" (though I'm not a fan of Disney World -- never been there but probably will go sometime in the next 4 years or so with the kids).

Not a very flattering comparision seeing that Disney has flatlined for the past two years. :idontno:

Have you ever thought of putting a stop loss on your JOE "just in case" and use the loss for a write-off next year?

Advance The Man

01-12-2006, 01:01 PM

It sends negative signals to the unknowledgeable. Someone who puts in a 10 share trade. The majority of massive sales by CEO's and execs are pre-planned and certain stock price amounts or dates trigger the sale or purchase. I respect you thought on the RE market and I'd say you're more correct than not, however your stock knowledge is weak.

Insider selling by execs (with no insider buying) sends somewhat "negative" signals to shareholders that execs don't totally believe the information they are releasing to the public.

Paula

01-12-2006, 02:46 PM

Not a very flattering comparision seeing that Disney has flatlined for the past two years. :idontno:

Have you ever thought of putting a stop loss on your JOE "just in case" and use the loss for a write-off next year?

Agreed. I've thought about stop-loss but am also considering just riding it a while. We'll see. It's not that much money I have invested in Joe.

SHELLY

01-13-2006, 01:30 PM

It sends negative signals to the unknowledgeable. Someone who puts in a 10 share trade. The majority of massive sales by CEO's and execs are pre-planned and certain stock price amounts or dates trigger the sale or purchase. I respect you thought on the RE market and I'd say you're more correct than not, however your stock knowledge is weak.

The CEO aside...when was the last time that ANY insider purchased shares of JOE, and how much did they purchase?

Just_In_Thyme

01-13-2006, 04:48 PM

The CEO aside...when was the last time that ANY insider purchased shares of JOE, and how much did they purchase?

When you look at the 2 year chart of this stock, it is no surprise that no one has bought. It has had quite a run.

SHELLY

01-14-2006, 01:52 PM

When you look at the 2 year chart of this stock, it is no surprise that no one has bought. It has had quite a run.

Chesapeake Energy has had quite a run too--and their insiders were (and still are) buying up shares.

Just_In_Thyme

01-14-2006, 02:36 PM

Chesapeake Energy has had quite a run too--and their insiders were (and still are) buying up shares.

I am quite sure we could spend all day going back and forth talking about what insiders are buying and selling their stocks etc. It proves nothing.
You are right Shelly, St. Joe is a crap company, the CEO is a crook and anyone who owns property in SoWal is going to ultiamtely lose their shirt and go bankrupt. The earth is warming so seas are rising and all coastal property is going to be underwater. There will be 50 gazillion high condos along the Panhandle coast w/no one to buy or own. We are going to be invaded by Canada and become a socialist country. The stock market is going to crash sending tens of thousands to jump off of buildings to their early demise. Oh yeah, all property in SoWal will fall in value 90% over the next 6 months. Let's not forget about the national real estate bubble that is going to send the entire country into a depression. I believe I have covered everything that you are going to put in your "thesis". I can't wait to read it.

monty

01-14-2006, 02:51 PM

Regardless of what you think of Shelly (she is getting beat up by you people for simply having an opinion on the market--which is backed up be facts), it is not a good sign when all your insiders are selling rather than buying. It obviously means they feel the stock has peaked or nearly peaked in most cases.

SHELLY

01-14-2006, 04:38 PM

You are right Shelly, St. Joe is a crap company, the CEO is a crook

Your words...certainly not mine.

GreenWaveDave

01-16-2006, 01:42 PM

The stock market is going to crash sending tens of thousands to jump off of buildings to their early demise. Oh yeah, all property in SoWal will fall in value 90% over the next 6 months. Let's not forget about the national real estate bubble that is going to send the entire country into a depression. I believe I have covered everything that you are going to put in your "thesis". I can't wait to read it.

According to Monty SoWal has already fallen 50-60%. More than a few people have asked for this to be substantiated with some sort of evidence. I find it more than a coincidence that Monty has yet to reply to those posts. He must be consulting with Shelly for some data.

Advance The Man

01-16-2006, 02:06 PM

Shelly is misguided with her stock knowledge i.e. gives an example of an unrelated company. But she may be on to something with her real estate opinion. You just have to look at MLS data...time on market, reduced asking prices as well as the end of s/d lots & condo projects selling out in hours, etc. Time will tell.

I am quite sure we could spend all day going back and forth talking about what insiders are buying and selling their stocks etc. It proves nothing.
You are right Shelly, St. Joe is a crap company, the CEO is a crook and anyone who owns property in SoWal is going to ultiamtely lose their shirt and go bankrupt. The earth is warming so seas are rising and all coastal property is going to be underwater. There will be 50 gazillion high condos along the Panhandle coast w/no one to buy or own. We are going to be invaded by Canada and become a socialist country. The stock market is going to crash sending tens of thousands to jump off of buildings to their early demise. Oh yeah, all property in SoWal will fall in value 90% over the next 6 months. Let's not forget about the national real estate bubble that is going to send the entire country into a depression. I believe I have covered everything that you are going to put in your "thesis". I can't wait to read it.

SHELLY

01-17-2006, 12:20 AM

Shelly is misguided with her stock knowledge i.e. gives an example of an unrelated company.

(1) The example I gave was in reference to "insider buying" of stocks. Couldn't compare JOE's "non-insider" buying to other comparable companies since insiders in the real estate sector aren't buying their stock; they may be exhibiting a bit of puffery, but they're not stupid enough to put their own money on the line.

(2) Considering JOE's competitors (i.e., current panhandle property owners and investors) I'd say JOE will have the upper hand, in this buyer's market, to come down on price. Maybe owners of investment property in the panhandle should consider holding shares of JOE as a hedge.

wetwilly

01-17-2006, 12:25 AM

:popcorn:

SHELLY

01-17-2006, 12:40 AM

According to Monty SoWal has already fallen 50-60%. More than a few people have asked for this to be substantiated with some sort of evidence. I find it more than a coincidence that Monty has yet to reply to those posts. He must be consulting with Shelly for some data.

Not hardly--50-60%??? Monty must be an "UBER Real Estate Bear."

Having said that...I think when this pre-construction condo thing comes to a head, the prices can very well "fall" 50% from the prices that investors "think" their condo is "worth." The ultimate buyer (if the investor gets lucky :funn: ) will never be able to explain to their banker why the condo that was "just closed" by the investor for $250,000 appreciated in value by 50% in a couple of hours. :eek:

The Wild West Days of Easy Money are grinding to a halt. With the Fed tightening the screws on banks' lending practices, many will learn that there really are risks associated with real estate investing.