Real Estate Supply

[redfisher]

to those of you that are agents (I don't know which of you are...), it seems that the lot supply has tightened up a bit on 30-a...are you seeing this in your own businesses?...the number of lots available seems to have gone down by about 20%...what are you seeing?...red

[Smiling JOe]

to those of you that are agents (I don't know which of you are...), it seems that the lot supply has tightened up a bit on 30-a...are you seeing this in your own businesses?...the number of lots available seems to have gone down by about 20%...what are you seeing?...red Maybe the listings are expiring, because the lots have not been selling at that rate. Maybe people are finally catching up on Economics 101 and realizing the supply and demand relationship. :idontno: My guess is that most Realtors have been on vacation and have not kept up their listings over the last couple of weeks, thereby allowing them to expire.

[SHELLY]

Realtors who know their stuff are having great difficulty convincing owners that if they want to move their properties the asking prices have got to come down. But property owners who have come to believe the rhetoric dished up by the RE industry that real estate can go nowhere but up now believe realtors who try to convince them otherwise are incompetent and lazy. With owners unwilling to budge on prices and buyers not willing to buy in at the top, the industry kind of dug a hole for itself that will temporarily stagnate sales and increase inventory of high-end (and high priced) properties.

In some cases contracts are expiring (and owners are POed at their realtors and visa-versa), some are pulling the properties in order to re-list closer to tourist season, and others will pull and re-list later at a lower price as a "new listing" to avoid the dreaded "reduced price" banner.

If you think real estate supply is dwindling, just walk into any real estate office and say you want to buy any type of property--they'll be all over you like an SUV salesman at a GM dealership.

[redfisher]

Sadly, I disagree but am disinterested in an argument...the reason for the post was to find out from the realtors if r/e closings are picking up...I do not believe they are lazy, incompetent and i own an SUV that was a joy to buy...Red

[GreenWaveDave]

Well put "Redfisher". The "bears" really take every opportunity to growl out there. Can't we all be a bit more positive in '06?

[goodwitch58]

My business has picked up a lot in the last 10 days. I did not go on vacation! :clap_1:

[Smiling JOe]

Yesterday, there were 322 expired listings (all types) in the area. Six listings were extended. Four listings changed price, and ten properties were listed. There were no properties sold yesterday, obviously because it was Sunday and a Holiday, but more listings are expiring than are being sold and newly listed, so the inventory may indeed be decreasing. I am uncertain of the reason for the large numbers of expired listings yesterday, but the number is not typical of most days.

[beachmouse]

I suspect that there are a good number of not terribly motivated sellers out there. They figure if they can get price X for their property it's worth it to take the profit and sell, but if they can only get price Y, then they might as well hold on to it for a while yet, enjoy the property, and see how it goes.

[ecopal]

If someone does not need to sell their 30A property it might be best to take it off the market for a while. We are obviously in a buyers market with considerable over supply in many areas and property categories, and particular price ranges.

Property flippers that have to sell will be lowering their prices in desperation just to cut their losses. This is especially true for lots with build out deadlines and many preconstruction condos. Until those properties are sold off it will be very difficult to get a decent price even for prime 30A property.

There may be some good buying opportunites for the savvy buyer. But it is not a good time to be selling if you don't have to.

The new airport going in and the surge of baby boomers retiring will only be bullish for the area. 30A is one of the nicest and most unique coastal areas available anywhere and is still a bargain even at these prices.

[TooFarTampa]

If someone does not need to sell their 30A property it might be best to take it off the market for a while. We are obviously in a buyers market with considerable over supply in many areas and property categories, and particular price ranges.

Property flippers that have to sell will be lowering their prices in desperation just to cut their losses. This is especially true for lots with build out deadlines and many preconstruction condos. Until those properties are sold off it will be very difficult to get a decent price even for prime 30A property.

There may be some good buying opportunites for the savvy buyer. But it is not a good time to be selling if you don't have to.

The new airport going in and the surge of baby boomers retiring will only be bullish for the area. 30A is one of the nicest and most unique coastal areas available anywhere and is still a bargain even at these prices.

Exactly. I wish the people who really don't care if they sell would take their properties off the market. That would help the overall picture, though I think regardless it will be two years or so before things balance out. The main problem is that the new realtors that have flooded the market aren't going to tell them that. :roll: Maybe sellers are starting to figure it out? :idontno:

[SHELLY]

I suspect a lot of "listings" are going underground; meaning that since 1 out of every 3 people in the county has a realtor's license and the other 2 know at least 5 people who do, sellers will start to rely on "word of mouth" sales (it saves on having to post signs and blowing up balloons for open houses).

While it's true that a lot of people can afford to keep their properties off the market, and continue paying the carrying costs, they're a little disappointed that the real estate investment they made in 2005 won't be the 20%+ cash cow they had hoped for.

And then there's the pre-construction condo mortgage conundrum yet to come:
Financing the Flip (http://www.planetrealtor.com/Florida/FLRealtorMagazine/BizLine1205.cfm)

[beclareesq]

I'm up here in moderately cold Louisville trying to keep my eye on the market on 30A. Right now, in my estimation, it's like trying to put a fair value on so many tech stocks in April of 2000. Coming on the heels of quadruple gains in two and three year periods and facing a glut of sellers and very few buyers, it is hard to peg the market on a particular piece. I think it's correcting maybe even moderate bursting. Just my humble opinion.

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.

[RiverOtter]

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.

Very few of us know each other away from the boards. Even fewer have met while in SoWal. Some have even been lucky enough to meet Smiling JOe and kurt.


BTW.... Sueshore thinks you are cute :biggrin:

[TooFarTampa]

I'm up here in moderately cold Louisville trying to keep my eye on the market on 30A. Right now, in my estimation, it's like trying to put a fair value on so many tech stocks in April of 2000. Coming on the heels of quadruple gains in two and three year periods and facing a glut of sellers and very few buyers, it is hard to peg the market on a particular piece. I think it's correcting maybe even moderate bursting. Just my humble opinion.

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.

:welcome: I "know" nobody here -- well, over a year ago I got a nice neighborly phone call from someoone that I found out later is a regular poster here -- but hang out here enough and the personalities become pretty clear. I agree this is a great place for real estate info, hurricane freak-out sessions and general info about SoWal. In the lounge, people are silly and funny, and many of the regulars have met each other. There are a few people I plan to look up next time I am up there.

I agree with your assessment of the market, and I am glad that I don't feel pressure to sell. For buyers, I think it's a great time to get in. If I were on the hunt, I might even try SHELLY's business card trick. ;-)

[Kimmifunn]

I'm up here in moderately cold Louisville trying to keep my eye on the market on 30A. Right now, in my estimation, it's like trying to put a fair value on so many tech stocks in April of 2000. Coming on the heels of quadruple gains in two and three year periods and facing a glut of sellers and very few buyers, it is hard to peg the market on a particular piece. I think it's correcting maybe even moderate bursting. Just my humble opinion.

By the way, great site, many thoughtful posts. Seems like quite a bit of tension. You guys know each other? Sounds like a family reunion at times, in a fun way.
Oops! You must spell FUNN with 2 N's! Rule #1.

The Funns love all. We usually don't have anything of substance to say, but we like to keep all the stiffs loosened up! :rolling:

:welcome:

[WiLe]

More than anything else, negativity is hurting the RE market. Sure there's some truth in what we're hearing in the media. The markets, especially the coasts, was getting frothy from speculation. But there is a point where its just piling on and making the problem bigger than it is. A potential buyer is probably going to ruminate over what he's just heard or read. Even if he doesn't totally buy into the bubble, he's going to believe that a lot of other people are going to buy the bubble and he's not going to want to jump in when "everybody" else is jumping out. Why not be a vulture and swoop in when the multitudes are fleeing?

I believe that all this shall pass when the media has something else more important to start talking about. (Like remember when Chandra Levy and Gary Condit was the most important thing in the universe until 9/11?) A couple seasons without a major hurricane and more positive news like we heard today from the Fed will make all the difference in the world. The beach dream is not going away. In the end, prices will resume their growth - all its going to take is positivity replacing negativity - because the beach is still the beach and most people want a piece of it. PCB might look like its swimming in condos now, but 10 years down the road when tourists are flying in from Europe to buy them, they'll be hot commodities again - hotter than they were last spring, because the pool of buyers will be much, much higher and the water will be gone.

And isn't there a risk in waiting - even if prices were to dip? Suppose that interest rates did rise rather dramatically? Assuming that one was financing the dream and planning on actually using it, couldn't any savings from price reductions be cancelled out (and maybe then some) by dramatically higher interest rates? I wouldn't blame anybody for being prudent in today's environment, but prudence could turn into folly if nothing ever looks "worth it" until everybody else thinks so.

Time passes quickly and very few things, outside of some mass produced consumer goods, get cheaper over the long haul.

[Franny]

:welcome: beclareesq! Our market will fair just fine..good thoughts!

[GreenWaveDave]

Now there's the positive attitude I've been looking for. Bravo!

I couldn't agree with you more WiLe on the impact of the media (good and bad). You're right, there will be a new topic for the media to start drumming up negative sentiment about soon and in the meantime coastal RE prices will continue to go up and people will miss out on good buying opportunities if they don't wake up in time.

SoWAl is still a relative bargain. Anyone familiar with other coastal markets around the country will certainly agree.

[beclareesq]

:welcome: beclareesq! Our market will fair just fine..good thoughts!
Thanks..I agree that in the long run the area will always be desireable and thrive. The feel of 30A is different from any other coastal spot we've been to.

I don't think the market has reacted to media negativity as much as it has responded to too much development and appreciation that is too good to be true. Just traditional market forces. That old willing buyer and willing seller getting together.

[WiLe]

I don't think the market has reacted to media negativity as much as it has responded to too much development and appreciation that is too good to be true. Just traditional market forces. That old willing buyer and willing seller getting together.

When that ole willing buyer is watching TV on saturday morning while he's getting dressed to meet that willing seller and he happens to have the channel on a news program who's subject for today is the bubble, the buyer is influenced negatively - at least as far as the willing seller is concerned. Repeat this over and over "times millions" and this can't help but have a negative affect on the market. The 24 hour news cycle that we have today where they have to come up with something to interest and entertain the masses has all kinds of implications. The media can do amazing things. It can have us thinking the world is coming to an end or everything is coming up roses and, to our detriment, they often make the decision which side to take based on either their worldview or whatever they think we'll move us to watch them instead of Channel 3.

I know I pay attention when I hear:

IS REAL ESTATE IN A BUBBLE? - FIND OUT AT 10 ON MSNBC!!!

I didn't even have to tune in to hear the world bubble. Gosh, I was discussing the bubble in the post office line this morning - and several times since then. All this talk, talk, talk is detrimental to real estate. One day, again, it won't dominate the news and each deal will be judged on its own merits instead of media slant.

[SHELLY]

Here's my take on the real estate market

- If you're living in a home, and are not leveraged to the teeth, you're going to be just fine

- If you've owned a vacation/rental property for several years with a manageable mortgage and can handle the increased taxes, insurance and other carry costs, you're going to be just fine

- If you bought an investment property in the last year at sky-high prices with an exotic mortgage (leveraged to the hilt), figured on double-digit appreciation, and believe you will make a profit after carrying costs by renting it out, you're going to be severely disappointed.

- If you bought into pre-construction condos that will be complete in 2006/2007 and expect to flip them for a bunch of money--you're going to get screwed.

Areas with the highest and fastest appreciation will fall the fastest and the furthest (Florida condos come to mind). If you're looking for a homestead, I see no problems getting into the market now. Investment property is a whole different ballgame; the days of double digit appreciation and "flipping for fun and profit" are pretty much history. If the stock market takes off (like it did today), real estate will fall even faster as investors turn their back on and move out of real estate (whose illiquidity is a drag on one's portfolio). If you want to own more RE than your primary residence and a second home, there are other areas in the real estate game which are better investment plays than gambling on pre-construction condo flips (commercial or self-storage REITs come to mind).

Personally speaking, not a single one of my "boomer" friends, family, or acquaintances have expressed any desire to shell out $500,000+ to live in a 930sf concrete box in the middle of an SUV traffic jam.

[SHELLY]

I didn't even have to tune in to hear the world bubble. Gosh, I was discussing the bubble in the post office line this morning - and several times since then. All this talk, talk, talk is detrimental to real estate. One day, again, it won't dominate the news and each deal will be judged on its own merits instead of media slant.


IMO what the media is doing is trying to compensate for the screw-ups it made by hyping the dot-com frenzy. Economists back then were screaming "where's the fundamentals to back the soaring prices??!!" But the media just brushed them aside, saying it was "different this time" and "fundamentals don't count in this new age" and went right on their merry way inflating the tech bubble up to the breaking point and subsequent crash.

The media "bubble" hype is the antithesis of the realtors' "the boomers are coming" hype that created the current high, unsustainable real estate prices. The wise buyer will weigh both sides and see that the "right" price is somewhere in the middle--although realtors would prefer investors to have only one side of the story (that being the realtor's side).

Investors put a lot of blame on the media for the part they played in creating the tech bubble....as a result, the media is being overly cautious to avoid having their fingerprints on this train wreck.

[WiLe]

Personally speaking, not a single one of my "boomer" friends, family, or acquaintances have expressed any desire to shell out $500,000+ to live in a 930sf concrete box in the middle of an SUV traffic jam.

If you're talking about high rise beach condos, its really rare for people to "live" in them. I found that out way back in 1995 when I moved into my first condo fulltime and found out we were the only one living there in November. After about three months living there my wife grew tired of getting on the elevator every time the dog had to be let out. We traded the house straight even for a beach house (on the lagoon here). I paid $169,900 for that condo (pre in 1993) which at the time was a huge price to pay and I was told it was too high to ever make anything out of it.

I don't know who your boomer friends are but my booming buddies would dearly LOVE a condo on the beach.

[TooFarTampa]

One day, again, it won't dominate the news and each deal will be judged on its own merits instead of media slant.

I just don't see why it's so hard to judge an individual deal on its own merits. But I guess to some people it is. I have a friend who is about to buy her first home. She is 35 and about to spend 110K (not in Florida), and she is freaking out. I am trying to help her without being critical. It all boils down to: What are the comps? What is the market doing? Can I afford it comfortably? Will I need to sell anytime soon? Is the house in good shape? Etc.

This is not rocket science. Really it's not. But as SHELLY so quickly reminds us, there are people who do these things without thinking or worrying about fundamentals. Anyone who does is an idiot, IMO. Especially after the dot-com bust.

Reading is fundamental. Flipping is not!!

[WiLe]

IMO what the media is doing is trying to compensate for the screw-ups it made by hyping the dot-com frenzy. Economists back then were screaming "where's the fundamentals to back the soaring prices??!!" But the media just brushed them aside, saying it was "different this time" and "fundamentals don't count in this new age" and went right on their merry way inflating the tech bubble up to the breaking point and subsequent crash.

The media "bubble" hype is the antithesis of the realtors' "the boomers are coming" hype that created the current high, unsustainable real estate prices. The wise buyer will weigh both sides and see that the "right" price is somewhere in the middle--although realtors would prefer investors to have only one side of the story (that being the realtor's side).

Investors put a lot of blame on the media for the part they played in creating the tech bubble....as a result, the media is being overly cautious to avoid having their fingerprints on this train wreck.

I don't agree with your assessment. The media would have played the tech meltdown for all it was worth, if it hadn't have melted before they got around to exploiting it. By the time the media catches on to a "stock story" its an old story. That's not so with real estate because its illiquid and slow developing.

I will agree with you about weighing both sides, but prime real estate isn't a lot different from blue chip stocks, except that you can have more fun on the beach than reading your monthly brokerage report. Markets go up and markets go down. There's no absolute guarantees, but the odds are in favor of coastal property and odds are in favor that the migration towards the coasts will continue - at least as long as it still snows in Michigan.

[SHELLY]

I just don't see why it's so hard to judge an individual deal on its own merits. But I guess to some people it is. I have a friend who is about to buy her first home. She is 35 and about to spend 110K (not in Florida), and she is freaking out. I am trying to help her without being critical. It all boils down to: What are the comps? What is the market doing? Can I afford it comfortably? Will I need to sell anytime soon? Is the house in good shape?

The new way of thinking of one's "primary home" as an "investment" is the demon that haunts home ownership today. The "investment" tripe dished up by some in the RE and mortgage industry in an effort to keep bread on their tables would tend to freak any first-time buyer out. IMO being able to comfortably AFFORD the home (and all associated costs) and still have money left over to have a somewhat enjoyable life trumps many of the other arguments. Having peace of mind while living in a 900sf duplex sure beats sleepless nights and hiding from bill collectors in a 2300sf beach condo.

Keep trying to exorcise those "investment" demons out of her thinking when it comes to her primary residence. At the age of 35, getting into a piece of real estate she can afford with a low fixed mortgage is a good thing in any market.

[SHELLY]

prime real estate isn't a lot different from blue chip stocks, except that you can have more fun on the beach than reading your monthly brokerage report.

But the fun ends when you have to board up the windows, tear out the drenched carpeting and deal with insurance adjusters; or you can sit in your recliner, sipping a martini while reading the brokerage report--and if you want to go to the beach or anywhere else in the world, rent a place.

[SHELLY]

I don't know who your boomer friends are but my booming buddies would dearly LOVE a condo on the beach.

So what's stopping them from buying one??

:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

[WiLe]

So what's stopping them from buying one??

:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

Simple answer: Money.

The ones that have enough already own one or more. The ones that don't have enough dream of owning one.

Personally, I'm working towards having a condo in Colorado and JUST one or two somewhere here on the coast.

[WiLe]

But the fun ends when you have to board up the windows, tear out the drenched carpeting and deal with insurance adjusters; or you can sit in your recliner, sipping a martini while reading the brokerage report--and if you want to go to the beach or anywhere else in the world, rent a place.

Actually, all that's pretty easy to deal with in a condo. Just don't sit on the board. Its a house where you're on your own. Been there, done that.

You must own a lot of stocks. Anywhere in the world, huh - anytime you want to go? I've always wanted to see Hong Kong, the Great Wall of China, an around the world cruise and that's just the first couple months. So I can sell my real estate and travel till I'm dead.

Now if I run out of money before I'm dead, I'm going to blame you.

[SHELLY]

Simple answer: Money.


Local RE types tell us boomers are FLUSH with cash and they ALL want to come to the "undiscovered" panhandle--so I guess that's not always the case--a bit of "puffery" I suppose.

[Donna]

Excuse me for bucking the cynical posts, but thinking of one's home (primary or otherwise) as an investment is sound financial planning. Well located real estate has been and will continue to be one of the most successful investments one can make, if only one can come up with the initial capital. California is the nation's most expensive real estate market, yet has remained a place where well located properties continue to appreciate at a higher rate than anywhere in the nation. South Walton will reflect this trend in the long run, so long as it protects its natural resources and quality of life. The best real estate in the world is along coastlines and South Walton offers one of the world's most beautiful.

Shelly, the real estate world doesn't need another cheerleader, but you are entirely too cynical. Real estate trends are much more resilient that you seem to believe and good real estate locations (read = coastal areas) seldom experience more than a temporary lull in market conditions. You could look it up. :idontno:

[SHELLY]

Interesting letter from a pre-construction condo "investor" and what happens when it comes time to come up with the mortgage payments. :eek:

Gee Whiz--you mean I have to pay for these condos? (http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20051109_speculate.htm)

[SHELLY]

You must own a lot of stocks.

Actually, I'm diversified (Domestic/Int'l Stocks/Bonds; RE; REITs; Utilities; Precious Metals; CDs & some cash)

[SHELLY]

Well located real estate has been and will continue to be one of the most successful investments one can make, if only one can come up with the initial capital.

But what happens if, after scratching up "initial capital," one can't maintain the mortgage payments, taxes, insurance, maintenance, utilities or feed the kids? Lots of folks found they can come up with the "initial capital" (80/20 piggyback, subprime loan) to "buy" more house than they need, but a slowing RE environment makes that investment far too risky, especially when one's primary family residence is at stake.

[SHELLY]

Excuse me for bucking the cynical posts

Please do :D ! As an observer of real estate market trends and behavioral investing I enjoy reading posts from real estate bulls. <seriously>

[Smiling JOe]

But what happens if, after scratching up "initial capital," one can't maintain the mortgage payments, taxes, insurance, maintenance, utilities or feed the kids? Lots of folks found they can come up with the "initial capital" (80/20 piggyback, subprime loan) to "buy" more house than they need, but a slowing RE environment makes that investment far too risky, especially when one's primary family residence is at stake.Shelly, the same thing will happen to those folks as the people who borrowed on their stocks to buy more stocks back in 2000. However, that does not prevent primary residences from being sound investments. They can be excellent investments and sometimes the profits can be tax free.

I am beginning to believe that you are a stock broker. :funn:

[Rita]

Shelly, the same thing will happen to those folks as the people who borrowed on their stocks to buy more stocks back in 2000. However, that does not prevent primary residences from being sound investments. They can be excellent investments and sometimes the profits can be tax free.

An obvious point SJOe. Thanks for making it. The % of people purchasing in SoWal that might fit shelly's scenario would be very small. (I would think)

[TooFarTampa]

Local RE types tell us boomers are FLUSH with cash and they ALL want to come to the "undiscovered" panhandle--so I guess that's not always the case--a bit of "puffery" I suppose.

About 6 months ago I discussed the market with a local RE agent who I would say is well entrenched, knowledgable and honest. We talked about cash buyers, who are the Holy Grail in markets of million-dollar-plus homes. Most of the time -- and this is not as true perhaps as it was five years ago, but I still believe it is generally true -- buyers of $1 million houses are cash buyers. Or will be again. Especially secondary homes.

Well, as of six months ago those cash buyers weren't showing up. Logic tells you that their return will happen, but they will trickle into the market, not flood it. For the market to be in a healthy balance again, we have to go back to fundamentals, which mostly means cash or almost-cash buyers. And we WILL get them. Slowly. And those condos being built will sell off. Eventually. But I think it's going to be a long process.

[Rita]

Please do :D ! As an observer of real estate market trends and behavioral investing I enjoy reading posts from real estate bulls. <seriously>

Donna didn't sound like a "bull" in her post to me. She may or may not be, but one thing for sure, she is one well-informed, common-sense person who approaches problems with an attitude that things can get done and she is in there willing to help out however is needed.

Read through her posts on all subjects and you will learn a lot, but not necessarily on bullishness.

I would like to take this opportunity to thank all of you for bothering to post and share your knowledge and experiences. Everyone knows about diversifying, but many of you have brought out interesting points here and there that I had not thought about. Keep them coming.

And a successful New Year to you all - no matter how you define "success".

[Smiling JOe]

... but I still believe it is generally true -- buyers of $1 million houses are cash buyers. Or will be again. Especially secondary homes....

Recently I read a brief article in Florida Realtor, Jan 2006, p8, entitled "Mortgage Free," which stated that the US Dept of Housing and Urban Development and the US Census Bereau reported "that close to 40% of the nation's residential properties do not have mortgages." This covers owner-occupied homes and rentals. The name of the report is "Residential Finance Survey: 2001."

I know that number has changed since in the last five years due to many people taking out home equity loans, but I thought the article was relevant to this discussion. You can learn more at www.HUD.gov

[Donna]

Husband and I had a good laugh :floor: at the idea of me/us being "bullish" investors. We are quite conservative and highly diversified, believing in diversified long-term high yield mutual funds and "blue chip" stocks combined with bonds and cash instruments, real estate holdings via the strategy of location/location/location and contained in low-interest, fixed-rate mortgages, absolutely no debt but for those mortgages, and having an annual budget that we live well within at all times. We have learned from friends more affluent than us what the very wealthy have always known, that one can have many of life's luxuries at very minimal or even no cost. For example, we travel often and usually first-class, seldom purchasing an airline ticket, because we put every possible expense on a credit card offering air miles and pay the balance each month. I enjoy a week at Canyon Ranch every year, compliments of a little investment portfolio that yields the cost of the trip and then some, an investment made with that goal in mind. We are not necessarily market savvy investors, but we like to sleep nights and plan to fully retire early in life.

Back to the subject at hand...I believe that South Walton has yet to see its real estate values peak. That will come with the advent of the new international airport and as baby boomers seek quality of life retirement places without the necessity of proximity to major employment opportunities. Our species will always be drawn to coastal areas, our attraction to the primordial soup. The largest concentration of our national population and the most highly educated and highest income segment is largely centered along the country's coastal areas. And when this occurs, the stodgy naysayers of the investment world (probably entry level stockbroker types and insurance peddlers) will be sinking into their firmly planted footprints in the sand, still screeching, "Chicken Little is right!" You know the real estate investors' prayer, "Please, Lord...give me just one more real estate boom and I promise not to p--- it away this time." :clap_1:

[Unplugged]

Great post Donna - one of the BEST I've read in this Forum :clap_1:

[TooFarTampa]

Great post Donna - one of the BEST I've read in this Forum :clap_1:

No doubt. Words to live by right here:

We are quite conservative and highly diversified, believing in diversified long-term high yield mutual funds and "blue chip" stocks combined with bonds and cash instruments, real estate holdings via the strategy of location/location/location and contained in low-interest, fixed-rate mortgages, absolutely no debt but for those mortgages, and having an annual budget that we live well within at all times.

:clap_1: :clap_1: :clap_1:

[GreenWaveDave]

Back to the subject at hand...I believe that South Walton has yet to see its real estate values peak.


Go Donna! Go Donna! Go Donna!

I know there are many more people out there who do and will believe the same....(because it's true!).

[Rita]

..... And when this occurs, the stodgy naysayers of the investment world (probably entry level stockbroker types and insurance peddlers) will be sinking into their firmly planted footprints in the sand, still screeching, "Chicken Little is right!" ....

:lol:

[dbuck]

There is one thing that can scare away potential buyers and that is "insurance." What if you buy and then your insurance company drops your coverage. I have read that some owners are not going to insure their property and take a chance that nothing happens. We certainly couldn't afford that chance.

[Smiling JOe]

There is one thing that can scare away potential buyers and that is "insurance." What if you buy and then your insurance company drops your coverage. I have read that some owners are not going to insure their property and take a chance that nothing happens. We certainly couldn't afford that chance.Many Gulf Front owners can afford this. Many of the Gulf front homes are older, and the land may be worth more with a clean slate.

[SHELLY]

We are quite conservative... absolutely no debt but for those mortgages, and having an annual budget that we live well within at all times.

Excellent strategy! As a "quite conservative" investor, I'm betting you don't hold a fistful of pre-construction condo contracts? I'd be interested in hearing your personal thoughts (not the rah-rah real estate slant) on current preconstruction sale investments and the condo market glut along the panhandle. Do you envision y-o-y double-digit appreciation in these completed units (and resale condos) over the next couple of years--or ever again?

Also, if you envision SoWal built out (and up) with affluent communities (of ever-increasing property appreciation) populated with folks who don't have to work for a living, where are the folks who will be required to service this booming population (i.e., non-affluent people who DO have to work for a living) supposed to live?

[GreenWaveDave]

Also, if you envision SoWal built out (and up) with affluent communities (of ever-increasing property appreciation) populated with folks who don't have to work for a living, where are the folks who will be required to service this booming population (i.e., non-affluent people who DO have to work for a living) supposed to live?


Yeah, I'm sure developers are too dumb to realize there will eventually be opportunity to make money on these types of products to serve that need further inland. You're right, no affluent communities that I can think of out there seem to have service workers available to support them from surrounding communities that are more affordable. That could never happen!

Just seeing what it's like to be a cynic.......I think I like how it feels to be positive better!

[SHELLY]

Recently I read a brief article in Florida Realtor, Jan 2006, p8, entitled "Mortgage Free," which stated that the US Dept of Housing and Urban Development and the US Census Bereau reported "that close to 40% of the nation's residential properties do not have mortgages." This covers owner-occupied homes and rentals. The name of the report is "Residential Finance Survey: 2001."
I know that number has changed since in the last five years due to many people taking out home equity loans

Personally I think Florida Realtor is REALLY going out on a limb with this ditty--using 2001 figures?? -- Now that's a stretch! (I see you caught that too!)

Three things come to mind:

1) LOTS of homes have changed hands since 2001

2) many buyers would have been CRAZY to have paid cash when the banks were essentially giving money away in the last couple of years.

3) From 2001 to 2004 homeowners have pulled $330 Billion out of their homes and another $160+ Billion predicted for the year 2005.

My guess is that Florida Realtor reporters must have all been on vacation in December and had some high school intern come up with that "timely story." :funn:

[Paula]

Definitely... go Donna, go Donna, go Donna. I'd like to know what other strategies the rich have for living with luxuries but not paying too much. We do the "put everything on the credit card and get miles and then fly for free -- but not first class" as well. The four of us went to Hawaii last year and will be going to Italy next year on that strategy.

So, what other strategies for living luxuriously and paying less have you learned. I'm a ready and willing learner! I know planning ahead pays off - I booked the Hawaii and Italy tickets the day they allowed frequent fliers to book them, usually a year in advance.

[Santiago]

Excuse me for bucking the cynical posts, but thinking of one's home (primary or otherwise) as an investment is sound financial planning. Well located real estate has been and will continue to be one of the most successful investments one can make, if only one can come up with the initial capital. California is the nation's most expensive real estate market, yet has remained a place where well located properties continue to appreciate at a higher rate than anywhere in the nation. South Walton will reflect this trend in the long run, so long as it protects its natural resources and quality of life. The best real estate in the world is along coastlines and South Walton offers one of the world's most beautiful.

Shelly, the real estate world doesn't need another cheerleader, but you are entirely too cynical. Real estate trends are much more resilient that you seem to believe and good real estate locations (read = coastal areas) seldom experience more than a temporary lull in market conditions. You could look it up. :idontno:
Thank you for this post.

[Smiling JOe]

Shelly, I don't hear many people on this board saying, "Buy a Gulf-front Condo in the Florida Panhandle today!" So what is your beef? I think that many people agree with your general statement that the Condo flipping market is no place to be buying currently. WE UNDERSTAND THAT SO PLEASE STOP SCREAMING IT AGAIN AND AGAIN AGAIN.

[Just_In_Thyme]

If you yell loud enough and long enough and repeatedly then eventually it will be true right?

[Rita]

Shelly, I don't hear many people on this board saying, "Buy a Gulf-front Condo in the Florida Panhandle today!" So what is your beef? I think that many people agree with your general statement that the Condo flipping market is no place to be buying currently. WE UNDERSTAND THAT SO PLEASE STOP SCREAMING IT AGAIN AND AGAIN AGAIN.

Thank you SJ!

I don't think shelly is paying much attention to her reading audience. Most of her posts seem geared toward people who are not regular posters on here. There may be a forum on a board elsewhere who could benefit more from shelly's diatribes. (Maybe one where more of the posters are beginning investors.)

Some good points are made, but I really dislike the relentless bashing.

The folks I'm getting to know on this board are anything but "pie in the sky" investors. They seem to know the amount of risk they are willing to take. And beyond that, as a group, they seem to be some of the most logical, clear-thinking people that I've come across.

shelly has a right to share all the input she wants, but that doesn't mean I have to like the WAY she does it.

Oh - I guess I can be counted amongst her "crazys" for not borrowing all that low interest money (with all the fees and escrows attached). :roll:

[GreenWaveDave]

The Bulls are runnin again- I love it! ..........


Go Trojans!

[SHELLY]

So what is your beef? I think that many people agree with your general statement that the Condo flipping market is no place to be buying currently.

Being an economist at heart, I've been following the real estate boom, as I had followed the tech boom before it. Yeah, I know folks say they are not at all alike...but they do have many similarities, especially in the realm of behavioral investing.

Since I live in the area, I have a front-row, in-your-face view of the real estate boom which provides me with fodder for a thesis I'm contemplating. "Behavioral investing and the economic and environmental impact of the real estate boom"--with emphasis on pre-construction condos, speculative land deals, 1031 investment, exotic financing and the resulting economic and environmental impact.

I'd also like to give a SHOUT OUT to Kurt for allowing "another" point of view to be so openly expressed on this board! :clap_1:

[Santiago]

Being an economist at heart, I've been following the real estate boom, as I had followed the tech boom before it. Yeah, I know folks say they are not at all alike...but they do have many similarities, especially in the realm of behavioral investing.

Since I live in the area, I have a front-row, in-your-face view of the real estate boom which provides me with fodder for a thesis I'm contemplating. "Behavioral investing and the economic and environmental impact of the real estate boom"--with emphasis on pre-construction condos, speculative land deals, 1031 investment, exotic financing and the resulting economic and environmental impact.
That's nice. Please see Smiling Joe's post above.

[SHELLY]

Donna ...is one well-informed, common-sense person.

AGREED! :clap_1:

[Smiling JOe]

Tagging on to an earlier post of mine, a few days ago, I watched party of a tv show regarding what $2Million buys you where. They did not state their source, but announced that 31% of people buying homes priced over $1Million, were cash buyers.

[redfisher]

My God, I started this thread to find out if any REALTORS felt like commenting on their factual activity for the month of december...not to listen to "what everyone's asset allocation is", "why entry level stockbrokers or insurance peddlers are bad", "how to fly free"

Please, I would truly appreciate hearing from the licensed real estate brokers on this site r/e their current level of "closing" activity for the month of December if they would like to comment...thanks, Red

[Smiling JOe]

My God, I started this thread to find out if any REALTORS felt like commenting on their factual activity for the month of december...not to listen to "what everyone's asset allocation is", "why entry level stockbrokers or insurance peddlers are bad", "how to fly free"

Please, I would truly appreciate hearing from the licensed real estate brokers on this site r/e their current level of "closing" activity for the month of December if they would like to comment...thanks, Red

Sorry about that Redfisher.
I don't think I ever received the Market Trends report for Dec '05 for Walton Co. SoWalSally, will you please post it. I think I remember seeing it in The Sun.

While it is not a closing, today, I saw a first for me -- the list price on an interior lot was lowered 6.5% below the amount which they paid for it roughly one year ago. (It is Realtor owned.)

[Santiago]

My God, I started this thread to find out if any REALTORS felt like commenting on their factual activity for the month of december...not to listen to "what everyone's asset allocation is", "why entry level stockbrokers or insurance peddlers are bad", "how to fly free"

Please, I would truly appreciate hearing from the licensed real estate brokers on this site r/e their current level of "closing" activity for the month of December if they would like to comment...thanks, Red
There was no closing activity for the month of December to speak of. It does seem to really be picking up a little to start the year off. Like a lot people on this board, I have many friends in the business and many people that I work with as well. There were a lot of hollow comments in December like "it seems to be picking up" and such that were mostly related to holiday visitors doing a little of looking around. I went from hearing most of my friends doing zero business to hearing that they are writing contracts now. It remains to be seen if it will stick or if its just a bump up from the holidays.

[redfisher]

Thanks SJ, I've got the nov #'s from the dec. 24th sun and they weren't as good as i'd hoped...186 total new and resales of sfr's...i've got these numbers back a few years and the ave seems to be approx 270+ per month, w/the good really good months in the low to mid 300's per month...they held up pretty well thru the summer...point of fact, the nov # last year was this low @ 172...

The lots posted 497 for nov which was not bad...ave between 400-600 w/ highs @ 700-1000...that's why i asked about lot supply too see if that might actually be tightening...point of fact, the nov 04 # was 434

[Scooter]

I'm taking mine off the market. Didn't really want to sell but when RE told me how much it was worth I couldn't resist. Coming down in a few weeks to look at house plans. No build-out time, but I'm ready to spend summers, christmas, new years, thanksgiving and any other time I can get there. Only two more years of high school for kids and I can become a full-time resident. Fortunately, we purchased in a non-rental community. Would hate to live there in the summer with the house next door being a revolving door. :clap_1:

[monty]

The real estate supply continues to FAR outstrip demand and prices continue to fall because of this imbalance. If you look at sales data for the major developments along 30A (not for all of walton county) for the period August through November, you will find that sales of homes and lots are down by 20 to 60% in places like Rosemary, Watersound, Seaside, Watercolor, etc.

Prices on many lots and homes are well below the peak of late 2004 and early 2005. Asking prices for lots that sold for X a year or so ago are sitting right next door to lots on the market today that are listed for 60% of X (and they aren't selling at these drastically reduced prices). Houses that sold for $X per square foot 12 to 18 months ago are sitting next to similar houses that are listed today at prices 10 to 25% less per square foot (and these aren't selling either).

Builders are lowering prices every week and lot owners are doing the same as build out dates quickly approach. The market has a way to go before it hits a trough and starts growing again. There will be some great buying opportunities over the next few years as distressed owners and builders do anything they can to sell homes and lots in a market that is flooded with overpriced inventory.

[OnMackBayou]

Asking prices for lots that sold for X a year or so ago are sitting right next door to lots on the market today that are listed for 60% of X (and they aren't selling at these drastically reduced prices).
Could you give 3 or 4 addresses where this is happening now? I am in the market for a lot within walking distance of the beach. Feel free to pm me on this.

[Smiling JOe]

Could you give 3 or 4 addresses where this is happening now? I am in the market for a lot within walking distance of the beach. Feel free to pm me on this.Me too.

[Joe]

Me 3. Please provide at least one example where a lot "next door" is listed for 60% less in each community of "Rosemary, Watersound, Seaside, and Watercolor". And please only provide examples of lots that sold and not relative to lots that were/are listed. There were, and still are, many inflated listings IMO. I hunger for some facts and no surmising so please surprise me with some actual data. I am not doubting what you state, just looking for hard data. Bring it on...

[kurt]

I couldn't afford one even at 60% of what they sold for a year ago, but I have several thousand friends who would be interested. Please send or post details.

[Just_In_Thyme]

I'd also be interested in this info. We are looking for a good deal.

[Jellyfish]

The real estate supply continues to FAR outstrip demand and prices continue to fall because of this imbalance. If you look at sales data for the major developments along 30A (not for all of walton county) for the period August through November, you will find that sales of homes and lots are down by 20 to 60% in places like Rosemary, Watersound, Seaside, Watercolor, etc.

Prices on many lots and homes are well below the peak of late 2004 and early 2005. Asking prices for lots that sold for X a year or so ago are sitting right next door to lots on the market today that are listed for 60% of X (and they aren't selling at these drastically reduced prices). Houses that sold for $X per square foot 12 to 18 months ago are sitting next to similar houses that are listed today at prices 10 to 25% less per square foot (and these aren't selling either).

Builders are lowering prices every week and lot owners are doing the same as build out dates quickly approach. The market has a way to go before it hits a trough and starts growing again. There will be some great buying opportunities over the next few years as distressed owners and builders do anything they can to sell homes and lots in a market that is flooded with overpriced inventory.

Real life example, this is what is going on in Las Vegas right now. I did have a home, still own a condo there for businesss ( I am there every couple of weeks), didnt by it as an investment, just was cheaper than 50 hotel nights a year and more convenient. You can still buy a decent 2br townhouse with a garage for $200K. Anyways, the market went nuts over last couple of years, mostly speculators. Market really pulled back this winter. At one point, there were over 50,000 listings (in a city with about 1.2m residents.... :blink: ), mostly investors trying to unload. Most publications expect Vegas prices to actually decrease 5-15% this year as the investors sell out and new home flippers go to closing. If you bought 4-5 year ago, you still have a nice run up in value, but now will pull back some. There is no way to tell, however I wonder how many "investors" (ie: short term flippers) there are in the SoWal market?

[Miss Kitty]

jellyfish...I have wondered the same....how many "investors" vs. homebuyers are there in SoWal. I was a homebuyer that just hoped my property did not decrease in value. I would be happy to "break even"....because I have enjoyed our place so much since purchasing in 2001.

[TooFarTampa]

I'd say quite a few, jellyfish. I personally know some. But I also know several people like us who were investors but now are in it for the long haul. Gonna take awhile for the others to shake out of the market. Rental market also needs to stabilize. Can't really raise rents (because the supply is increasing) but rents don't cover the escalating costs. I don't think these factors are going to change anytime soon. It will s-l-o-w-l-y get better. A few hurricane-free seasons would help.

[Jellyfish]

Not trying to compare the 2 markets, just pointing out that real estate, although a great long term investment, does move in cycles. It's like retirement savings---yes, stocks are better than bonds/fixed income over the long term, but if you need the money in a down cycle, you're not going to be happy.

Another interesting thing that happend in Las Vegas is that there were so many investment houses for rent that rents went down about 20%. Rents are still depressed today. Supply and demand, eventually, always takes control.

Personally, I think SoWal will continue to escalate, long term, because it is such a unique and beautiful place, and no matter how bad the economy gets, people will still vacation at the beach. Short term, would appear the level of speculation (not just in SoWal but just about everywhere) will take some time to shake out, which should put downward short term pressure on
values. If you're in there long term (like I hope to be) not to worry, just looking for a superior entry point.

[SHELLY]

Real life example, this is what is going on in Las Vegas

Interesting piece on speculation in Las Vegas :eek:

Speculate...and here's what you get, another day older and deeper in debt (http://www.kvvutv.com/Global/story.asp?S=2637422&nav=2NiwTjR3)

[TooFarTampa]

Interesting piece on speculation in Las Vegas :eek:

Speculate...and here's what you get, another day older and deeper in debt (http://www.kvvutv.com/Global/story.asp?S=2637422&nav=2NiwTjR3)

Interesting and scary read, SHELLY, but SoWal is no Las Vegas. Anyone who knows anything about the fundamentals of real estate should have thought twice before getting caught up in the craze. As a non-coastal town, it has literally twice the number of available area that a similar-sized coastal town would have. Think circle vs. half circle. Add in the beautiful vistas of SoWal and the high (and RARE) coastal elevations, and the markets look completely different from a long-term perspective. JMO.

[Jellyfish]

Not a good sign...beginning of the end IMO

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2006/Jan-07-Sat-2006/business/5248008.html

Also, its a common misconception to assume there is pleny of land in LV.
Looks like open desert all around the city when you fly in, but actually 95% of the state is owned by various Fed and State agencies (DOD, DOE, NPS, etc). The BLM holds land auctions regularly, but the supply is far from plentiful due to this anomally.

[TooFarTampa]

Not a good sign...beginning of the end IMO

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2006/Jan-07-Sat-2006/business/5248008.html

Also, its a common misconception to assume there is pleny of land in LV.
Looks like open desert all around the city when you fly in, but actually 95% of the state is owned by various Fed and State agencies (DOD, DOE, NPS, etc). The BLM holds land auctions regularly, but the supply is far from plentiful due to this anomally.

That's very interesting about the government-owned land. I stand corrected then. Thanks for the info.

I do agree that it is the beginning of the end (for now) of condo development. Too much too fast ... in Tampa we've had a huge number of condos built lately, plus a lot of apartment conversions to condos :roll:, and it looks like several of the latest announced communities are just not gonna happen. We're relatively secure here with single family homes, but there are signs of a slowdown. Houses are moving, supply seems to be in balance in most areas, but the price has to be appropriate.

Then again, the US population just hit 300 million, or is about to (can't remember which it is) so the building booms are far from over.

[Chickpea]

That's very interesting about the government-owned land. I stand corrected then. Thanks for the info.

I do agree that it is the beginning of the end (for now) of condo development. Too much too fast ... in Tampa we've had a huge number of condos built lately, plus a lot of apartment conversions to condos :roll:, and it looks like several of the latest announced communities are just not gonna happen. We're relatively secure here with single family homes, but there are signs of a slowdown. Houses are moving, supply seems to be in balance in most areas, but the price has to be appropriate.

Then again, the US population just hit 300 million, or is about to (can't remember which it is) so the building booms are far from over.

There are 1200 new residents who move to Florida EVERY Day. 90% of them will chose to live within 10 miles of the Ocean (both coasts). Most of them obviously do not have millions to spend but there continues to be great interest in the coast and our region and Sowal has incalculable advantage of having so much land seemingly slated for preservation and I cannot imagine that changing without considerable uproar from residents.

[monty]

Could you give 3 or 4 addresses where this is happening now? I am in the market for a lot within walking distance of the beach. Feel free to pm me on this.

Here are a few examples from one end of 30A to the other. Get a good realtor who will give you sales data as well as listing data and you can find a whole lot more where these came from. And, remember, these are asking prices. Some of these sellers will be getting desparate to unload (especially lots with buildout times approaching) so make a "ridiculous" offer and you are likely to get it accepted.

1> Cypress Dunes--
Lot 26 listed at $899k with georgeous ocean views. Three lots with exact same views on same street but a little smaller than #26 (#'s 44, 42, and 39) sold for $1.1 million each. Price is just under 20% less than market high water mark.

Lot 110 listed at $350k backs up to cypress pond and lot 102 does the same listed at $349k. Several lots on same street sold for from $450k to $495k. Prices on these two lots are roughly 20% to 35% under market high.

2> Preserve at Grayton--

Lots 76 and 78 are priced under $360k. Lot 77 sold for $420k and lot 75 sold for $525k. Prices are down up to 30%.


3> Watercolor--

House on lot 14 Cottage District with some view of ocean recently sold for $1.69 million (seller took an offer $260k under listing price). A smaller house with no view of the ocean three doors down sold for $1.75 million over a year ago.

Lot 10 in Cypress Cove at $435k price is 25% lower than prices paid for nearby lots. Lot 4 Pine Crest at $550k is 30% lower than lot 7 sold at $773k. Lot 24 Sand Hill at $960K down 20% from lot 5 sold at $1.2 million.

4> Watersound--

Lot 9 Passages listed for $699k after lot 5 sold for $869k price down over 20%. Lot 65 Passages at $485k down 45% from sale of lot 63 at $899k. Lot 17 Wind Rose at $475k versus sale of lot 18 for $969k down over 50%.

5>Rosemary--

49 Rosemary Avenue for sale at about 750 per square foot and 67 Dunmore for sale at about $800 per square foot. Numerous sales in 2004 and early 2005 (including 177 Rosemary, 12 Spanish Town, 46 Cartegna, etc, etc) sold for $1100 to $1250 per square foot and many current listings are well over $1000 per square foot.


This list is only a fraction of listings that are at amounts below market highs and none of these are selling. But, if you feel the market is only in a temporary lull rather than in a decreasing mode, these are outstanding buys. If however, you are like me, keep your powder dry because IMO the deals will only get better over the next year or two, especially on lots in neighborhoods with buildout deadlines that are rapidly approaching.

[Camp Creek Kid]

Here are a few examples from one end of 30A to the other. Get a good realtor who will give you sales data as well as listing data and you can find a whole lot more where these came from. And, remember, these are asking prices. Some of these sellers will be getting desparate to unload (especially lots with buildout times approaching) so make a "ridiculous" offer and you are likely to get it accepted.

1> Cypress Dunes--
Lot 26 listed at $899k with georgeous ocean views. Three lots with exact same views on same street but a little smaller than #26 (#'s 44, 42, and 39) sold for $1.1 million each. Price is just under 20% less than market high water mark.

Lot 110 listed at $350k backs up to cypress pond and lot 102 does the same listed at $349k. Several lots on same street sold for from $450k to $495k. Prices on these two lots are roughly 20% to 35% under market high.

2> Preserve at Grayton--

Lots 76 and 78 are priced under $360k. Lot 77 sold for $420k and lot 75 sold for $525k. Prices are down up to 30%.


3> Watercolor--

House on lot 14 Cottage District with some view of ocean recently sold for $1.69 million (seller took an offer $260k under listing price). A smaller house with no view of the ocean three doors down sold for $1.75 million over a year ago.

Lot 10 in Cypress Cove at $435k price is 25% lower than prices paid for nearby lots. Lot 4 Pine Crest at $550k is 30% lower than lot 7 sold at $773k. Lot 24 Sand Hill at $960K down 20% from lot 5 sold at $1.2 million.

4> Watersound--

Lot 9 Passages listed for $699k after lot 5 sold for $869k price down over 20%. Lot 65 Passages at $485k down 45% from sale of lot 63 at $899k. Lot 17 Wind Rose at $475k versus sale of lot 18 for $969k down over 50%.

5>Rosemary--

49 Rosemary Avenue for sale at about 750 per square foot and 67 Dunmore for sale at about $800 per square foot. Numerous sales in 2004 and early 2005 (including 177 Rosemary, 12 Spanish Town, 46 Cartegna, etc, etc) sold for $1100 to $1250 per square foot and many current listings are well over $1000 per square foot.


This list is only a fraction of listings that are at amounts below market highs and none of these are selling. But, if you feel the market is only in a temporary lull rather than in a decreasing mode, these are outstanding buys. If however, you are like me, keep your powder dry because IMO the deals will only get better over the next year or two, especially on lots in neighborhoods with buildout deadlines that are rapidly approaching.


I'm familiar with a lot of the homes you talked about in Rosemary and you can't compare them only by price per square footage. There is a lot more to it than that. The house on Spanish Town is magnficent and is 1 lot back from the gulf, the one on Rosemary Avenue is a carriage house and is north of 30A. Your stats also don't take in to account build-out times, need of owner to sale, etc. Your comparisons are too simplistic.

[Smiling JOe]

I am still waiting to see the listings offered at 60% the last sale price -- apples for apples. CCK is dead on as for the sq ftg. That alone tells me nothing more than half of the picture.

[Buckhead Rick]

We were down last week and had a long talk with our realtor at Watercolor. It seems the new (proposed) airport at PC will have a MUCH bigger effect on real estate values than I would ever had thought. This may come as a surprise but the airport isn't being build to give southerners better deals from Atlanta but to open the mid-west i.e. Chicago et al to the panhandle. As he said these folks now go to Napels (sp) and the south west coast of Fla because it can handle the larger planes but when you compare panhandle real estate prices to that part of Fla we are all most cheap. I guess JOE had a reason to "donate" 4000 ACs to the county. Here come the cheeze heads!(with check books)

[GreenWaveDave]

We were down last week and had a long talk with our realtor at Watercolor. It seems the new (proposed) airport at PC will have a MUCH bigger effect on real estate values than I would ever had thought. This may come as a surprise but the airport isn't being build to give southerners better deals from Atlanta but to open the mid-west i.e. Chicago et al to the panhandle. As he said these folks now go to Napels (sp) and the south west coast of Fla because it can handle the larger planes but when you compare panhandle real estate prices to that part of Fla we are all most cheap. I guess JOE had a reason to "donate" 4000 ACs to the county. Here come the cheeze heads!(with check books)


Any update on the progress/ projected completion date of the new Airport?

[Smiling JOe]

We were down last week and had a long talk with our realtor at Watercolor. It seems the new (proposed) airport at PC will have a MUCH bigger effect on real estate values than I would ever had thought. This may come as a surprise but the airport isn't being build to give southerners better deals from Atlanta but to open the mid-west i.e. Chicago et al to the panhandle. As he said these folks now go to Napels (sp) and the south west coast of Fla because it can handle the larger planes but when you compare panhandle real estate prices to that part of Fla we are all most cheap. I guess JOE had a reason to "donate" 4000 ACs to the county. Here come the cheeze heads!(with check books)That has been the thought all along. Not only the midwest, but the northeast, and the west coast as well as more international flyers are expected to come. Already, people from as far away as TX and OH have no problems driving here, and those people will most likely continue to drive to the area. With the new airport, they are looking for a different source of money -- places where money is cheaper (if you no what I mean). That is why I keep saying that ten years from now, you will wish you had bought back when the real estate was "overpriced.":D

[Smiling JOe]

Any update on the progress/ projected completion date of the new Airport?
It has been delayed slightly. The final yes or no was supposed to take place in Nov '05. Currently, the (I think) Airport Authority is still studying the impact issues associated with development of the existing airport and they are expected to give the final yes or no vote in the summer of this year. Plenty of money has already been placed in the coffers to begin costruction when the word is given. Expected date of operation of the new airport is 2009.

[TooFarTampa]

It has been delayed slightly. The final yes or no was supposed to take place in Nov '05. Currently, the (I think) Airport Authority is still studying the impact issues associated with development of the existing airport and they are expected to give the final yes or no vote in the summer of this year. Plenty of money has already been placed in the coffers to begin costruction when the word is given. Expected date of operation of the new airport is 2009.

Thanks for this. I was nosing around on the Dept of Environmental Protection site and saw that the wetlands permit for the airport was still being reviewed. Since some of the permit applications date back a couple of years, I guess this could take awhile. Wonder what this issues are exactly.

[Smiling JOe]

Thanks for this. I was nosing around on the Dept of Environmental Protection site and saw that the wetlands permit for the airport was still being reviewed. Since some of the permit applications date back a couple of years, I guess this could take awhile. Wonder what this issues are exactly.To my knowledge, and I have been known to be incorrect, the only thing holding up the project now is the impact study of the existing airport.

I believe there is a link posted somewhere regarding the updates on the airport. Run a search and see what you find.

Edit: here is the link to the pcairport.bechtel.com/ (http://pcairport.bechtel.com/)
Once on that page, click on "project schedule." I don't think they updated it recently.

[FoX]

http://www.1-888baysite.com/Home.htm


mind blowing - the scale

[SHELLY]

I know the "investors" say this RE boom is "different" from the tech bubble....but seeing on TV the Mayor of Orange City (AL), an ex-councilman, the city attorney, and a condo developer doing the "perp walk" on bribery charges last week was eerily reminiscent of daze gone by. :shock:

I suspect this is only the tip of the iceberg.

Dot-Condo at Enron-by-the-Sea (http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/1137752498193530.xml&coll=3)

[beachmouse]

We were down last week and had a long talk with our realtor at Watercolor. It seems the new (proposed) airport at PC will have a MUCH bigger effect on real estate values than I would ever had thought. This may come as a surprise but the airport isn't being build to give southerners better deals from Atlanta but to open the mid-west i.e. Chicago et al to the panhandle. As he said these folks now go to Napels (sp) and the south west coast of Fla because it can handle the larger planes but when you compare panhandle real estate prices to that part of Fla we are all most cheap. I guess JOE had a reason to "donate" 4000 ACs to the county. Here come the cheeze heads!(with check books)

I still think that the reality of the new airport is really not going to come close to what everyone seems to be expecting from it. Southwest is not going to set up shop. If you look at their route maps, they don't go into areas with less than half a million people, (save for a couple intra-Texas flights where they can legally use Love Field) and prefer metros of more than a million. Panama City has less than 200K people.

Winter in Naples is appreciably nicer- generally no freeze warnings, and it will be a while before the golf options here are as good there. People in the Midwest are not going to go to Florida for summer vacation when they've got Saugatuck, Charlevoix, Mackinac Island, Petoskey, etc. as a closer trip without the insane summer humidity.

And increase the number of passengers from PC by 50% and you're not going to get non-stop flights to Chicago or NYC. Instead, you get a couple more Delta routes and a daily flight to Houston. Pensacola does get daily nonstops to Chicago, (but not Boston, NYC, Detroit, DC...) but they get 1.5 million passengers a year. So you're talking about pretty much quadrupling the number of passengers currently going out of PC, and still not getting non-stop service to most of the biggers Northeast/Midwest markets.

[Donna]

You will be astonished to see where people come from when there is a nearby international airport to get them there more directly and in a larger aircraft. Southwest Airlines won't matter at all. In fact, I predict that there will be a southeastern version of SW geared to the northern coastal market area. South FL has become a colony of Brooklyn, its quality of life severely eroded by too many high-rise condo buildings, too much traffic, and a generally tacky landscape. South Walton will seem a paradise by comparison. All these folks will need is some of "our kind" to give them the level of comfort to relocate there. The real estate that we feel is off-the-charts expensive today will seem laughably inexpensive to them, as our house was to us four years ago. Their standard is based on extremely expensive markets in or near large U.S. cities and even in European cities.

People from cold climates will continue to flock to Florida. Places like Charlevoix, Harbor Springs, and other Upper Peninsula Michigan communities are very nice, but they have basically two months of warm weather. And it is hot as seven hells and humid there in those summer months, too. The occasional and short of duration winter freeze will be a small price to pay in order to escape the eight to nine months of snow and ice that they encounter in Northern Michigan and other places like this. We have friends there who can't wait until they can move to Fla.

Developers like those at Seaside, WaterColor, and Rosemary Beach have had the exposure and experience from other areas to know what they are talking about. Within five years, South Walton will no longer be just the bastion of vacationers from the southeastern states and a few explorers from the outer states. Just you wait and see. :shock:

[Paula]

Coming from Michigan, I agree that many people from Michigan go to Traverse City, Mackinac Island, etc. (they call it "up north" here). It is as crowded there in the summer as it is in SoWal in the summer. The cars going from Ann Arbor to "up north" in the summer beginning with Memorial Day is a crawl for hours. I've only been "up north" a few times and thought it was very nice, though people who go up there regularly say it is awesome.

If the midwest becomes a prime target for people who want to go to the Panhandle, then this increase in demand will come from several sources (and the midwest is just one of many potential markets):

1. People from the midwest will be people who want to buy a second home to use in the fall, winter, and spring and then rent it out to people from the south in the summer. (like me)
2. Retirees from the midwest who want warmer weather in the winter but who see SoWal as affordable compared to other parts of Florida (and who like the year-round weather -- e.g., avoiding the extreme heat in the summer).
3. Retirees and others who like the natural environment and a "casual" upscale and active lifestyle.
4. Renters from the midwest who can travel in the shoulder months (retirees, singles, married no children, married young children) and who want nice places to rent for off-season vacations.

Word-of-mouth will probably be central to drawing people from the midwest to SoWal. That's how we heard of the area. Once we came here, we loved it and now we tell people. As someone who lives in Michigan, I can say that there is very little advertising for the Panhandle areas for vacations/retirees at this time in our area.

Of course, I'm sure that not everyone wants to see an increase in demand for the area.

[kurt]

I agree with Donna that we are the on tip of the iceberg.

Look for the airport to supply customers for cruise ships, an increasing number of exclusive all-inclusive resorts, theme parks, and unfortunately numerous casinos.

I don't know what the timetable is for all this but it's already started. The panhandle will actually become the American Riviera people have tried to call it for years.

[Camp Creek Kid]

I agree with Donna that we are the on tip of the iceberg.

Look for the airport to supply customers for cruise ships, an increasing number of exclusive all-inclusive resorts, theme parks, and unfortunately numerous casinos.

I don't know what the timetable is for all this but it's already started. The panhandle will actually become the American Riviera people have tried to call it for years.


I thought people called it the "Redneck Riviera." :funn:

[Smiling JOe]

I thought people called it the "Redneck Riviera." :funn:
:funn:American = Redneck:floor:

[Miss Kitty]

Casinos, Cruise ships...Crapola!!!! :eek:

[Paula]

Casinos, Cruise ships...Crapola!!!! :eek:

Agreed! Though I would be happy to take a cruise to Alaska someday... but not from SoWal.

[Cil]

This is probably an ignorant question, but what is the situation with gambling in the state of Florida? (I am not big on gambling/casinos so have not made it my business to find out.)

BTW
Did y'all know Gulf County is completely dry on Sundays? I mean, you can't even buy a drink in a restaurant. Our neck of the woods should be called "American Never-On-Sunday Riviera."

This past week I have seen three different cars with Michigan plates. They are making their way down here and I am glad our weather is nice for them.

[Smiling JOe]

This is probably an ignorant question, but what is the situation with gambling in the state of Florida? (I am not big on gambling/casinos so have not made it my business to find out.)

BTW
Did y'all know Gulf County is completely dry on Sundays? I mean, you can't even buy a drink in a restaurant. Our neck of the woods should be called "American Never-On-Sunday Riviera."

This past week I have seen three different cars with Michigan plates. They are making their way down here and I am glad our weather is nice for them.
Girl, there is not a County or Parish in the United States that is completely dry, even on Sundays. You just have to learn who to ask to get a drink. ;-)

The only gambling I do is getting in my car or on my bike and riding down the road, and, living in Hurricane Alley, so I too, don't keep up with the gambling ins and outs. Gambling is available in Ebro, located 15 miles north of PCB. At the Dog Track, you can bet on the dog races, or in the Texas Holdem' tournaments, and probably some more things too, although I don't know if all of them are legal. I think the northern Miami area was approved for gambling last year. In the past (not sure about the present), gambling was allowed in certain venues in Daytona. There maybe other areas in FL, too, where gambling is legal. Kurt is probably right, with the tax revenue generated from gambling, we will probably see big casinos push to get in the PC/PCB area.

[monty]

I'm familiar with a lot of the homes you talked about in Rosemary and you can't compare them only by price per square footage. There is a lot more to it than that. The house on Spanish Town is magnficent and is 1 lot back from the gulf, the one on Rosemary Avenue is a carriage house and is north of 30A. Your stats also don't take in to account build-out times, need of owner to sale, etc. Your comparisons are too simplistic.


FYI--Get a realtor and do some more research. The house that sold at 177 Rosemary is not a carriage house and it is not North of 30A. It is about 3 houses back from the ocean and has almost 3000 square feet.

In terms of comparisons, you are right and you are wrong. While it is easy to compare lots that sit side by side or very near each other as I did in my post, it is difficult to compare houses based on price per square square foot. However, what measure is appropriate???? I contend that in some cases it is a very easy way to guage the market. When lot size is fairly comparable (the value of the underlying land is pretty close), the size of the house on the lot is relatively comparable, the lot location is relatively comparable, the construction quality is similar, it is a reasonable comparison. In the case of the house that sold on Spanish Town, and the one that sold on Rosemary and the one for sale on Rosemary Avenue, the lots are similar in size, the homes are all magnificent, both have carriage houses, both have a view of the ocean, etc, etc. It is quite reasonable to compare the cost per square foot. If the market was stable, you would expect the price per square foot of these three homes to be close. However, the price on the home for sale is 30% to 40% less per square foot than the home that sold. There is no reason that the price should be that much lower other than the fact that the market has fallen..Plus the house is not selling so the market must be even lower than the current listing price.

[monty]

I am still waiting to see the listings offered at 60% the last sale price -- apples for apples. CCK is dead on as for the sq ftg. That alone tells me nothing more than half of the picture.

Go take a look at the houses in Rosemary that I described. You will find a pretty good comparison. No way you can explain such a drastic difference in cost per square foot other than the market.

the lot comparisons on the other hand cannot be argued, they are 100% apples to apples. You can get the data from a qualified realtor in the market and then go make some offers if you are so inclined. I prefer to wait for the bottom of the market.

In my post I actually said lots were listed at 60% of X (previous market high prices) not 60% below X. Several of my examples of lots show that neighboring lots are listing for 60% of previous highs in the market. In fact, one lot is over 50% below what an almost exact replica sold for at the market peak.

[Smiling JOe]

...

In my post I actually said lots were listed at 60% of X (previous market high prices) not 60% below X. Several of my examples of lots show that neighboring lots are listing for 60% of previous highs in the market. In fact, one lot is over 50% below what an almost exact replica sold for at the market peak.
I am confused.

[Santiago]

Go take a look at the houses in Rosemary that I described. You will find a pretty good comparison. No way you can explain such a drastic difference in cost per square foot other than the market.

the lot comparisons on the other hand cannot be argued, they are 100% apples to apples. You can get the data from a qualified realtor in the market and then go make some offers if you are so inclined. I prefer to wait for the bottom of the market.

In my post I actually said lots were listed at 60% of X (previous market high prices) not 60% below X. Several of my examples of lots show that neighboring lots are listing for 60% of previous highs in the market. In fact, one lot is over 50% below what an almost exact replica sold for at the market peak.
The drastic difference in price per foot is due to the entry cost of the sellers when they purchased and the need to sell. I've done a ton of buying and selling in SoWal as have most of my friends. It's simple, if you have lots of product and need to move something for cash flow, it doesn't make a damn what the neighbor has his listed for. You price it to sell and move on. I'm sitting on several lots and houses now that were purchased 2.5 to 3 years ago before the drastic run up in prices. They will be priced to suit my needs, not the needs of the guy who bought last year. This is going on right now. There are many properties listed for sale by people who really do not care if they sell or not. These are usually priced high. On the other end of the spectrum, you have would be flippers who do not want to build and builders who want to free up their construction lines, hence the low prices.

[kurt]

Santiago I appreciate you posting that because it shows why our market is weird. Basic principles apply, but it is not normal here. It seems that a few posters try to compare SoWal to what is happening in their own sphere, or what they read about as "normal" or expected.

The truth is that every property, and every buyer and seller here has their own story. And many of those stories are unusual.

[RB]

the home that is mentioned at 49 Rosemary ave is owned by Exclusive Resorts. Exclusive Resorts is a private club with homes all over the world. They purchased 2 homes in Rosemary Beach early in 2004. They are both for sale now. This is most likely a business decision to better utilize their assets. The one on rosemary ave was purchased in feb 02 for 2.25 million. It is now listed for 3.1 mil. this is not a bad return on your money for 24 months time. even though the cost sq/ft may not be equal to others it is still a good sale for them if it moves quick. The other home mentioned in the post at 67 dunmoretown lane is not 3400 sq/ft. I know who built it and the house is not even close to that size even if you consider the carriage house. look it up in the county records. The main house is closer to 2500. So this house is not listed at a discount. The two homes that Exclusive Resorts are selling will probably be some of the first to move in Rosemary. They reflect a price that is more realistic than the other homes being offered. There are approx 80 homes for sale in Rosemary right now. At this time last year there was less than half this number. The home at 177 Rosemary that sold last year for around 3.6 mil is centered on the eastern green with nothing between it and the gulf except a beautiful community green. So this is not a fair comp to the homes above.

[Santiago]

Santiago I appreciate you posting that because it shows why our market is weird. Basic principles apply, but it is not normal here. It seems that a few posters try to compare SoWal to what is happening in their own sphere, or what they read about as "normal" or expected.

The truth is that every property, and every buyer and seller here has their own story. And many of those stories are unusual.
There is much truth in these last 2 sentences. RB has touched on this above. There are so many variables that affect pricing even within neighborhoods, not to mention spread out over all of 30A. Having said this, I personally think that Monty is right about the bottom not being hear yet. If you don't care which lot you get within a neighborhood like Watercolor, you will be able to do a little better than now. The unique, premium lots will probably not go down any further. I have a lot in Watercolor that was purchased in August 05, just before the drop in prices, that I can make about a 30% return on in 6 months if I would just say yes, but I'm not selling. Its a unique lot. I also have one purchased at about the same time that I would love to get my money back on but can't right now. Point being, every situation is different.

[Rita]

.....Prices on many lots and homes are well below the peak of late 2004 and early 2005. Asking prices for lots that sold for X a year or so ago are sitting right next door to lots on the market today that are listed for 60% of X (and they aren't selling at these drastically reduced prices). Houses that sold for $X per square foot 12 to 18 months ago are sitting next to similar houses that are listed today at prices 10 to 25% less per square foot (and these aren't selling either).

Too much x = %y + $ for me.

Thanks Santiago and all for sharing your first hand knowledge with us of some of these properties being compared. It helps.

Get ready for the delete button Kurt.......:lol:

[SHELLY]

I'm sitting on several lots and houses now that were purchased 2.5 to 3 years ago before the drastic run up in prices. They will be priced to suit my needs, not the needs of the guy who bought last year. This is going on right now.

I read a quote (in Florida Realtor mag) from a local real estate agent who said that folks are buying up properties in the panhandle and using them like CDs. It's a good strategy in your case, but for those who've started last year...IMO...they're screwed.

[Santiago]

I read a quote (in Florida Realtor mag) from a local real estate agent who said that folks are buying up properties in the panhandle and using them like CDs. It's a good strategy in your case, but for those who've started last year...IMO...they're screwed.
Again, in some cases you are right but in many cases they will do fine. If their plan was to buy just any lot with no intention of building, and to flip it in the short term, you are dead on. If the lot has no build out, even at this past year's prices, and they are investing for the long term, they will still do great in my opinion.

[redfisher]

With sincerity and respects Shelly, you SO frequently and SO aggressively give your opinion... "IMO" people think less and less of it everyday...I can't believe this thread has lasted this long...

[SHELLY]

With sincerity and respects Shelly, you SO frequently and SO aggressively give your opinion... "IMO" people think less and less of it everyday...I can't believe this thread has lasted this long...

And all the people are certainly entitled to their opinions too...I don't have a problem with that.

[beachmouse]

As far as I'm concerned, a discussion board that lacks diverse opinions gets pretty boring pretty quickly.

In fringe area news, (geography, not opinions) the Bay Beason reports that Ruckel family has apparently approached the city of Niceville about annexing 1,000 acres north of the N'ville airport and east of OWC. Their plans are to finish building out Swift Creek, and then develop the new land as a mix of middle class to upscale housing and commercial, and possibly put a golf course somewhere in the area.

[Donna]

Exclusive Resorts is being sued by our town for operating a home as a timeshare property. They were foolish enough to place a big article in the NY Times Travel section, with photos. The home was instantly recognized as the party house next to our public park. The owners have not paid a 12.5% bed tax required of any rental property since it was built, but the town also has an ordinance prohibiting timeshare properties. The owners are apparently a very nice couple of guys from San Francisco, who had no idea and heard the Exclusive Resorts siren song without looking into the constraints of local ordinances. Their exposure and liability is now huge.

I absolutely agree with the point that every owner has their own exit strategy and needs and that isn't necessarily compatible with the more recent buyers/investors or especially with the speculative investors in lots and pre-construction condos. Add to that the fact that rental properties in highly desirable areas have no strong incentive to sell just before the rental season begins = revenue flow. What the area needs is a summer without catastrophic hurricane damage and news coverage, combined with lots of press about the advantages the new airport will bring and a stable situation relative to interest rates. (Although I am advised that most of the sales in our area and for our type of product are cash sales, probably 1031 exchanges.)

I also think that South Walton has somewhat missed the boat in not advertising the fact that very little damage was done to properties in our immediate area as a result of the storms. Pensacola and the Ft. Walton/Destin areas were hard hit, but the extent of our major damage seemed beach erosion and its attenuate grasp (dune walkovers). Living so far away from South Walton, I am amazed at how many well-informed people think that Hurricane Katrina itself did the major damage to New Orleans, instead of the condition of their levees in combination with a dismal performance on the evacuation. South Walton has been very effective with its evacuation plans, with rare exception, and I see them continuing to do road plans to improve this for the future. Not that long ago, there was no mandatory evacuation required for a storm of any intensity. (Or maybe I'm older than I think... :roll:

[Paula]

I agree, Donna, about the lack of advertising outside SoWal. The area is nicely advertised (even has articles written about it) in Southern Living and Coastal Living. But I don't see anything about it advertised to people in the midwest, even though we'd be a prime target for rentals and buyers. People from Michigan, for example, are so grateful for 60 degree weather in the winter -- even 50 degree weather -- sometimes 40 degree weather... I think we could get a lot of winter rentals from retirees from the midwest if we advertised more. Another off-season market would be academics on sabbatical who have grown children. SoWal would be a beautiful place to write one's articles or books while on sabbatical.

[josebby]

We live in the Chicago area. I was surprised a few weeks ago to get a St. Joe insert in the Chicago Tribune! They are starting to try to raise interest in the Midwest. I would say only one in ten people here tell me they know about SoWal and almost always they reference Destin. We are trying for word of mouth renters for our place in WaterSound from networking here in the 'burbs...and it's working! A retired couple have rented for two weeks in February.
Great idea about professors. I'll get the word out to my friends at our local college and see if it works.

[monty]

I am confused.

The math is very simple sixth grade algebra.

An example of one of the lot comparisons above is as follows:

X represents the market peak price paid for a lot in a specific area and 60% of X is the same as .6 times X.

In the case of lot 18 in the Windrose Section of Watersound which sold for $969k, X would be $969k in the algebraic equation. Although several nearby lots sold for similarly high prices, this particular lot sale represents the absolute market peak in this small area of Watersound. 60% of X equals about $582k. Lot 17 right next door is now listed for $475k. Lot 17 is listed, and not selling, at a price that is actually lower than 60% of the market high. In fact, it is listed for less than 50% of the market high.

If you want to find a good deal in the market, enlist the help of an agent who can do the digging for you. Then keep your eyes peeled, find a place you like and make an aggressive offer.

[SHELLY]

We live in the Chicago area. I was surprised a few weeks ago to get a St. Joe insert in the Chicago Tribune! They are starting to try to raise interest in the Midwest. I would say only one in ten people here tell me they know about SoWal and almost always they reference Destin.

The reason St Joe didn't advertise in the past was they didn't need to advertise. There were no end to the number of investors in the immediate area. All JOE had to do was fire out a fax to a couple Realtors about their property-du-jour and thousands would come flocking--LOC in hand--to glom around the jumbo shrimp bowl and sign contracts.

JOE had a near-zero advertising budget in those heady days of the real estate boom. Things have changed--expect to see more advertisements farther afield.

[kurt]

Did you not believe that there are many, many lots out there listed well below market highs? Again, any of your friends can find a good realtor that will show them many more properties than I listed above at prices far, far below market highs.

You said the following:

Asking prices for lots that sold for X a year or so ago are sitting right next door to lots on the market today that are listed for 60% of X (and they aren't selling at these drastically reduced prices).

Post a lot that has an asking price 40% lower than the one next door sold for 12 months ago and I believe there are thousands of people on this board who would buy it. Assuming that the lots are truly comparable and the sale was at market value. A lot that has 4 months left before the required build out date instead of 16 months is not comparable.

[SHELLY]

I agree, Donna, about the lack of advertising outside SoWal. The area is nicely advertised (even has articles written about it) in Southern Living and Coastal Living. But I don't see anything about it advertised to people in the midwest, even though we'd be a prime target for rentals and buyers. People from Michigan, for example, are so grateful for 60 degree weather in the winter -- even 50 degree weather -- sometimes 40 degree weather... I think we could get a lot of winter rentals from retirees from the midwest if we advertised more.

Funny you should mention this. I thought it would be a good idea for a group of rental owners to get a little "cartel" together (10-12 homes or condos) and settle on an affordable (think lower-middle class) 3-month winter rate, then market it as a package to an up-north retirement village. If it works out, it could be a win-win situation: the owners would have their places rented out for a solid block of time during off-season and the "gang" from the retirement community would still be able to hang out together.

As this market becomes glutted with vacation rentals, the owners are going to have to think "outside the box" if they (at least) want to break even.

[kurt]

The reason St Joe didn't advertise in the past was they didn't need to advertise. There were no end to the number of investors in the immediate area. All JOE had to do was fire out a fax to a couple Realtors about their property-du-jour and thousands would come flocking--LOC in hand--to glom around the jumbo shrimp bowl and sign contracts.

JOE had a near-zero advertising budget in those heady days of the real estate boom. Things have changed--expect to see more advertisements farther afield.

I understand your point but St. Joe has spent a lot of advertising money in recent years, probably in the millions per year. They have also benefited from tons of free publicity.

[monty]

You said the following:



Post a lot that has an asking price 40% lower than the one next door sold for 12 months ago and I believe there are thousands of people on this board who would buy it. Assuming that the lots are truly comparable and the sale was at market value. A lot that has 4 months left before the required build out date instead of 16 months is not comparable.

Many of these lots for sale at well below market highs have been on the market for quite some time and haven't moved. More are hitting the market every day. If people really want to buy, there are lots of properties out there to be had at prices way below market highs. In addition, many of the sellers would likely entertain offers below asking price which would make the deal even better.

Your point about the build out date is right on target--I agree completely. Prices will continue to fall as build out dates quickly approach.

Your point about "the lot being truly comparable and the sale was at market" is strange. Are you implying that all the frenzied buying at high prices was not done at market prices? The market is the amount a willing buyer will pay a willing seller. I would say that most of the properties sold is this market were sold at market prices. Finally, the lots in my post were all comparable to each other in terms of size and location. However, I agree again that there are no perfect comps. The primary point of the post is that prices are falling and they are likely to continue to fall. The deals will continue to get better until supply and demand even out.

[monty]

The reason St Joe didn't advertise in the past was they didn't need to advertise. There were no end to the number of investors in the immediate area. All JOE had to do was fire out a fax to a couple Realtors about their property-du-jour and thousands would come flocking--LOC in hand--to glom around the jumbo shrimp bowl and sign contracts.

JOE had a near-zero advertising budget in those heady days of the real estate boom. Things have changed--expect to see more advertisements farther afield.

Joe has been buying big ads in the Wall Street Journal, Womens mags, etc. for the first time in many years in an attempt to revive the market.

[kurt]

Many of these lots for sale at well below market highs have been on the market for quite some time and haven't moved. More are hitting the market every day. If people really want to buy, there are lots of properties out there to be had at prices way below market highs. In addition, many of the sellers would likely entertain offers below asking price which would make the deal even better.

Your point about the build out date is right on target--I agree completely. Prices will continue to fall as build out dates quickly approach.

Your point about "the lot being truly comparable and the sale was at market" is strange. Are you implying that all the frenzied buying at high prices was not done at market prices? The market is the amount a willing buyer will pay a willing seller. I would say that most of the properties sold is this market were sold at market prices. Finally, the lots in my post were all comparable to each other in terms of size and location. However, I agree again that there are no perfect comps. The primary point of the post is that prices are falling and they are likely to continue to fall. The deals will continue to get better until supply and demand even out.

Why didn't you just say that in the first place? :lol: It took you a long way round to state a reasonable point that most everyone here would agree with. No reason to post examples that you don't have all the details for.

Many lots on the market have build out times left that make it impossible to buy now and meet requirements. I was told the one in WS you mentioned is one of them. So what does that make it worth? I don't know but you can't use it to prove your point.

I understand market value. I'm not implying that most properties were not sold for market value. You pointed out specific selling prices and you can't be certain they were at market value unless you have full knowledge of the transaction.

[Paula]

Joe has been buying big ads in the Wall Street Journal, Womens mags, etc. for the first time in many years in an attempt to revive the market.

I would think that they're buying these ads (and I'm glad they are) not to revive the market, but to build the market since this area is unknown to many non-southern markets. I think that much of the market plan was in place before the hurricanes and current market changes. I would think that JOE has both a short (e.g., respond to hurricanes and market changes) and long-term plan and the marketing is as much (perhaps more) of the long-term plan. Short-term changes in market condition shouldn't have a big effect on a company's strategy (unless, of course, the company is already in trouble and I don't have that sense with JOE at this time).

[Miss Kitty]

I have two questions. If I were to buy a lot with a short build out time, say 6 months, I am guaranteeing myself to pay penalties since no one can build that quickly, right? Second question...what are the typical $$ penalties for not building "on time"?

[Smiling JOe]

I have two questions. If I were to buy a lot with a short build out time, say 6 months, I am guaranteeing myself to pay penalties since no one can build that quickly, right? Second question...what are the typical $$ penalties for not building "on time"?I think we are somewhat misusing the term buildout time on this board. We are really talking about construction start times.

I don't think that there is a "typical" penalty for not beginning construction by the start time. It will vary from one development to the other. I believe The Village of Blue Mtn has a penalty of $1,000 per month for not commencing before the start date.

[Miss Kitty]

I think we are somewhat misusing the term buildout time on this board. We are really talking about construction start times.

I don't think that there is a "typical" penalty for not beginning construction by the start time. It will vary from one development to the other. I believe The Village of Blue Mtn has a penalty of $1,000 per month for not commencing before the start date.

Thanks! I have learned on this forum that buildout time means commencement of construction, but I have also read that it takes time to get plans drawn up and approved. I'm wondering how much leeway developers would give to the new buyer.

[Smiling JOe]

Thanks! I have learned on this forum that buildout time means commencement of construction, but I have also read that it takes time to get plans drawn up and approved. I'm wondering how much leeway developers would give to the new buyer.Some developers may be willing to negotiate, yet others may ask you work that out with the seller. i.e. - not my problem. Some sellers with fast approaching start times, already have the house plans drawn and are including the plans in the sale.

[Joe]

Our contract with Watercolor stated fines of $1000 per month or they could buy the lot back from you at the purchase price if you did not begin construction by the contract date. Supposedly Watercolor is also allowing people to buy extra time in order to delay the construction commencement date.

[kurt]

Our contract with Watercolor stated fines of $1000 per month or they could buy the lot back from you at the purchase price if you did not begin construction by the contract date. Supposedly Watercolor is also allowing people to buy extra time in order