Real Estate Supply

[spinDrAtl]

I get inquiries all the time on my sowal property from people who say they just do not like the high rises or the traffic and other things associated with them. The overbuilding in many of these areas is bringing more rentals to Sowal, which does not seem crowded to me, even during the busiest periods of the year.

[TooFarTampa]

I get inquiries all the time on my sowal property from people who say they just do not like the high rises or the traffic and other things associated with them. The overbuilding in many of these areas is bringing more rentals to Sowal, which does not seem crowded to me, even during the busiest periods of the year.

Yes. While I do feel for those who have agonized as SoWal marches toward being built out, it is good to remember that there is nothing else like it along Florida's coastline, when you consider height restrictions and -- face it -- abnormally high elevations that give all but first and second tier owners a huge storm surge protection. SoWal is rare and unique with qualities that will be even more appreciated in years to come. These market difficulties will likely take years to climb out of, but once things are in balance, watch out.

In the end, as the area matures the biggest long-term, ongoing problems are going to be parking and a lack of labor force. As has been noted by others here, the time to plan for these problems is now.

[Babyblue]

Have you seen the horror of busted balloons in front of condos? Shameful.

[SHELLY]

Have you seen the horror of busted balloons in front of condos? Shameful.

In the olden daze we'd worry about the sea turtles choking on the shards of spent balloons--as luck would have it, that's no longer a problem.


.

[Babyblue]

What no more turtles? :confused:

[SHELLY]

Yes. While I do feel for those who have agonized as SoWal marches toward being built out, it is good to remember that there is nothing else like it along Florida's coastline.

http://mindlace.com/strangelove/layer3.jpg

http://mindlace.com/strangelove/layer4.jpg

[Babyblue]

http://mindlace.com/strangelove/layer3.jpg

http://mindlace.com/strangelove/layer4.jpg

Watch Dr. Strangelove. This picture is in the movie. :eek:

[hi n dry]

The condo market is ugly, but someone will own the Condos even if its the Banks and they will be rented. They wont cash flow but they will rent them buy the week for what they can get. This will Bring ALLOT of new people here for the great rental deals, this will be good for the commercial sector and a very small percentage will buy a condo for their personal use. Eventually the supply will draw down and prices will be stable. Just my opinion for what its worth.

During the last condo crash of the late 1980s there were many condos sitting vacant and deteriorating.

PCB will offer some great rental bargains which will hurt many owners there and even on 30A who hope to pay for some of their expenses by renting. There will be many vacancies.

Maybe tourist development should make this destination for all the homeless in the country.

This could be a charitable contribution to society by all the developers and real-estate agents that greatly benefited in the bye gone boom years.

[spinDrAtl]

During the last condo crash of the late 1980s there were many condos sitting vacant and deteriorating.

PCB will offer some great rental bargains which will hurt many owners there and even on 30A who hope to pay for some of their expenses by renting. There will be many vacancies.

Maybe tourist development should make this destination for all the homeless in the country.

This could be a charitable contribution to society by all the developers and real-estate agents that greatly benefited in the bye gone boom years.

My contention is that this will most likely NOT hurt Sowal owners due to the type of experience sowal renters desire.

In ten years I have never had a renter tell me they were choosing a high rise over us because of price. In fact, many of our inquiries are based on our location and many are 'running' to us from the Destin area.

If there are some too good to be true prices in PCB high rises, SOME will try it once, but inevitably they will come back to sowal.

[hi n dry]

Please check out the "sale lists" at
http://www.waltonpa.com/

According to this data there was only one closing in December 2006.
In December 2005 there were over 300 closings.

I assume the December 2006 data is not up to date-right?

In November 2005 there were over 400 sales.
In November 2006 there were 200 sales.

We are not making much progress absorbing the excess property inventory.

[fisher]

Please check out the "sale lists" at
http://www.waltonpa.com/

According to this data there was only one closing in December 2006.
In December 2005 there were over 300 closings.

I assume the December 2006 data is not up to date-right?

In November 2005 there were over 400 sales.
In November 2006 there were 200 sales.

We are not making much progress absorbing the excess property inventory.

The data is wrong. Walton County consistently puts a handful of sales up on the site right after month end. Then, they come back mid to late month and put the real data up on the site.

[hi n dry]

The data is wrong. Walton County consistently puts a handful of sales up on the site right after month end. Then, they come back mid to late month and put the real data up on the site.

Thank you for your help.

Do you think the November 2006 data is accurate which shows about half as many sales as November 2005?

[fisher]

Thank you for your help.

Do you think the November 2006 data is accurate which shows about half as many sales as November 2005?


Absolutely--

[fisher]

Please check out the "sale lists" at
http://www.waltonpa.com/

According to this data there was only one closing in December 2006.
In December 2005 there were over 300 closings.

I assume the December 2006 data is not up to date-right?

In November 2005 there were over 400 sales.
In November 2006 there were 200 sales.

We are not making much progress absorbing the excess property inventory.

The data is now up and there were less than 150 sales recorded by Walton County in December 2006.

Some were interesting--

A 2700 square foot house with a 500 square foot carriage house in Rosemary south of 30A sold for $1.786 million.

A 2200 square foot house on Park Row in Watercolor that sold for $2.0 million in 2004 resold in December for $2.1 million.

A condo at Compass Point in Watersound sold for $1.055 million after selling in Sept 2005 for $993k.

[redfisher]

The Nov. #'s are in the 12/30 issue of the Sun...How do they compare?...Red

[fisher]

The Nov. #'s are in the 12/30 issue of the Sun...How do they compare?...Red

No the Real Trend report and the Walton County property appraisers site do not agree. The Real Trend report always seems to show more sales than the county site. However, both the RT report and the County website show similar trends in terms of % declines in unit sales.

Any of the real estate pros know why this difference occurs???

[fisher]

The data is now up and there were less than 150 sales recorded by Walton County in December 2006.

Some were interesting--

A 2700 square foot house with a 500 square foot carriage house in Rosemary south of 30A sold for $1.786 million.

A 2200 square foot house on Park Row in Watercolor that sold for $2.0 million in 2004 resold in December for $2.1 million.

A condo at Compass Point in Watersound sold for $1.055 million after selling in Sept 2005 for $993k.

Also, one lot in the Preserve went for $200k (last sale of this lot was at $475k:eek: ) and one went for $195k.

[Bob]

Also, one lot in the Preserve went for $200k (last sale of this lot was at $475k:eek: ) and one went for $195k.Could build-out time influence price here??

[fisher]

Could build-out time influence price here??

Not sure, but my gut tells me no. I don't think there is a developer anywhere along 30A that is going to begin buying back lots that go beyond build out dates.

[hi n dry]

Could build-out time influence price here??

IMHO the association fees, taxes and build out time all affect the motivation of the seller. I would guess that all 3 could be a problem in Water Color.

[fisher]

IMHO the association fees, taxes and build out time all affect the motivation of the seller. I would guess that all 3 could be a problem in Water Color.

I believe he/she was asking about the sales in the Preserve.

Yes, all those carrying costs plus interest certainly factor into people dropping prices in order to sell. However, I don't believe that in Watercolor or Watersound that St. Joe will ever pull the trigger and start buying back lots (unless of course the market skyrockets again). It would be a PR nightmare and cost big bucks to buy the lots back. Then, they would be stuck with lots of inventory again in a market flooded with inventory. No, IMHO, next time a big chunk of lots bumps against the buildout deadline, St. Joe (and other developers for the same reasons) will give grace again. No developer is going to want to shell out the cash for a large number of lots and then be stuck with trying to sell them again.

[SHELLY]

St. Joe will ever pull the trigger and start buying back lots (unless of course the market skyrockets again). It would be a PR nightmare and cost big bucks to buy the lots back.

As I recall, ST JOE is now a "Place-Maker"....not a "Place-Taker." :biggrin:


.

[hi n dry]

I believe he/she was asking about the sales in the
Preserve. Yes, all those carrying costs plus interest certainly factor into people dropping prices in order to sell. However, I don't believe that in Watercolor or Watersound that St. Joe will ever pull the trigger and start buying back lots (unless of course the market skyrockets again). It would be a PR nightmare and cost big bucks to buy the lots back. Then, they would be stuck with lots of inventory again in a market flooded with inventory. No, IMHO, next time a big chunk of lots bumps against the buildout deadline, St. Joe (and other developers for the same reasons) will give grace again. No developer is going to want to shell out the cash for a large number of lots and then be stuck with trying to sell them again.


I agree that developer build out time deadlines have lost their teeth for the time being, but it is still a little unnerving having that uncertainty hanging over your head.

The Preserve has comparatively low association dues but does have a build out time of sometime in 2009.

Years ago when we visited the Preserve I was amazed how far it is to the beach-but once you get there it is beautiful!

I heard that 4 lots sold toward the end of the year in the Preserve for around $200k but I have not seen verification of any closings.

[pk305]

The Preserve at Grayton Beach just had a homeowner's vote to further extend the buildout....it's my understanding that it passed and is now 2012.

[pk305]

And, yes, there were a couple of Preserve closings around $200k in December. However, the most recent that I know of was in January for $225k.

[SHELLY]

The Preserve at Grayton Beach just had a homeowner's vote to further extend the buildout....it's my understanding that it passed and is now 2012.

Please remind me again as to the purpose of a "buildout" as hawked to potential buyers by developers' salespeople? Anyone?

:idontno:

.

[hi n dry]

One of the Preserve lots did close:

LOT 94 THE PRESERVE AT GRAYTON BEACH OR 2606-1295 OR 2744-3955
$195,000 SOLD

This is the lowest priced "flip" I have seen in the Preserve.

The extended Preserve build out time may help sellers, but his comp won't.

Anyone want to bet if the prices will go significantly lower in the Preserve?

[beachmouse]

Please remind me again as to the purpose of a "buildout" as hawked to potential buyers by developers' salespeople? Anyone?

:idontno:

.

Community lore here says that in the early days of Bluewater, 5 out of every 6 lots were sold with pretty tight buildout dates because the original developer wanted to discourage ordinary land speculation and flipping and encourage a bigger number of people to move there early on so that an actual community would form in the wilds beyond Meigs bridge. We didn't get here until the late 90s, but from what we've seen and heard, it worked out pretty well.

If you're planning to be an end user of the house, I see it as a draw to be surrounded by neighbors who care about the neighborhood instead of empty lots owned by people who still live in Metarie full time and have no intention of building soon.

[SHELLY]

lots were sold with pretty tight buildout dates because the original developer wanted to discourage ordinary land speculation and flipping.

Oh, yeah, right--to discourage speculation and flipping...now I remember..........:cool:

[fisher]

And, yes, there were a couple of Preserve closings around $200k in December. However, the most recent that I know of was in January for $225k.


PK and HI--check my post from 1/12 noting one December closing at $195k and one at $200k.

[fisher]

Oh, yeah, right--to discourage speculation and flipping...now I remember..........:cool:

:floor:

[TooFarTampa]

Question for all the realtors out there. I'm wondering how many of the current sellers fall into the following categories:

1) Must sell (either because they are purchasing something else or in real danger of foreclosure)

2) Want to sell because the market is no longer a good short-term or mid-term investment

3) Want to sell because they are tired of dealing with a second home or rental property

4) Are still "testing the waters" and looking to cash in on an investment of several years ago.

Where is all this supply coming from? Are there this many people in severe trouble? Are there still a lot of No. 4s out there, or far more No. 1s? I'm just curious as to why people who don't have to sell would even put their house on the market right now. I'd love to see what local realtors are hearing and seeing. Thanks.

[SHELLY]

I'm just curious as to why people who don't have to sell would even put their house on the market right now.

That's easy....they're trawling for "bigger fools" in what appears to be a fished-out market.

http://www.westportnow.com/archives/doghouse06050501.jpg.

[flyforfun]

Question for all the realtors out there. I'm wondering how many of the current sellers fall into the following categories:

1) Must sell (either because they are purchasing something else or in real danger of foreclosure)

2) Want to sell because the market is no longer a good short-term or mid-term investment

3) Want to sell because they are tired of dealing with a second home or rental property

4) Are still "testing the waters" and looking to cash in on an investment of several years ago.

Where is all this supply coming from? Are there this many people in severe trouble? Are there still a lot of No. 4s out there, or far more No. 1s? I'm just curious as to why people who don't have to sell would even put their house on the market right now. I'd love to see what local realtors are hearing and seeing. Thanks.

Tampa, there is a fifth catagory that you have not considered.....people selling to move up into more expensive property or to finance another project. With 1031 rules they way they are, and interest rates still being low, why would you not want move up? You see the greatest increase in value in the high end properties.

[TooFarTampa]

Tampa, there is a fifth catagory that you have not considered.....people selling to move up into more expensive property or to finance another project. With 1031 rules they way they are, and interest rates still being low, why would you not want move up? You see the greatest increase in value in the high end properties.

FFF, I guess those people would be included in No. 1. I did forget about the builders who have homes they have to get rid of. I would just love to know what percentage of sellers truly have an immediate need to sell.

FFF, I wouldn't want to move up because I'd be too stressed out about selling what I already own. Right now, at least. :D

[flyforfun]

[quote=SHELLY;194190]That's easy....they're trawling for "bigger fools" in what appears to be a fished-out market.

quote]

Shelly, the only fool's I know are the folks who lack the courage to take advantage of the "deals" that are popping up all over the place! Two years from now a lot of people are going to be hitting their heads against the wall wondering what in the h*ll they were thinking when they sold that piece of real estate! There are plenty of buyers running around looking for "deals" cause they are getting ready for the next real estate boom that will begin shortly! Just look in Seagrove, where you see Mr. Harris buying up every beach front home he can get his hands on! He has been down there long enough to see the high's and low's, yet he is still buying property. If you want to be successful, you need to start doing what successful people do. Otherwise, you can keep you money in the bank making pennies, or stocks waiting for the next "cook the books corporate scandal or 9/11" to whip your earnings out, or you can pray that social security is going to be there for you when you retire. Personally, I am happy to be one of your so called fools. I rather have a piece of sand any day that I can sit out on an watch sunsets, smell the salt air, and watch porpoises play than sitting with a bank CD trying to figure out when I can retire on the penny's its earned. You need to remember one important fact Shelly....God, is not making any more white beaches, especially ones with high elevations! More and more people are discovering this unique piece of paradise, and you can bet there will be lots of people, paying even bigger bucks to own a piece of it....that is the history of this area....and it will continue!

[flyforfun]

FFF, I wouldn't want to move up because I'd be too stressed out about selling what I already own. Right now, at least. :D


Tampa, the more experienced developers down there are smart enough to not over extend themselves. Unfortunately, there is always a group for "power rangers" who come down looking for a quick buck, roll the dice and learn some hard lessons. Even in a down market, your property value will double in five years. History has demonstrated a few bumps in the road, but that there is plenty of gold is this white sand. All you have to do is hang around a couple of years and you will see what I mean.:roll:

[fisher]

Tampa, the more experienced developers down there are smart enough to not over extend themselves. Unfortunately, there is always a group for "power rangers" who come down looking for a quick buck, roll the dice and learn some hard lessons. Even in a down market, your property value will double in five years. History has demonstrated a few bumps in the road, but that there is plenty of gold is this white sand. All you have to do is hang around a couple of years and you will see what I mean.:roll:

FFF--you must not be keeping up with the trends in the market over the last year or so. You really believe that people that bought in late 2005 are going to see their money double over a 5 year period. Some of them are down 50% or more right now. That means that over the next 4 years prices will need to increase by 300% from current levels for those folks to see their money double. What is the catalyst you see for turning things around so dramatically in the short term?

Also, just because Doodle is buying up property does not mean he will be successful in his investments. He seems to have been in trouble with the law in the past. Maybe he isn't so wise after all.

[SHELLY]

[quote=SHELLY;194190]That's easy....they're trawling for "bigger fools" in what appears to be a fished-out market.

quote]

Shelly, the only fool's I know are the folks who lack the courage to take advantage of the "deals" that are popping up all over the place! Two years from now a lot of people are going to be hitting their heads against the wall wondering what in the h*ll they were thinking when they sold that piece of real estate! There are plenty of buyers running around looking for "deals" cause they are getting ready for the next real estate boom that will begin shortly! Just look in Seagrove, where you see Mr. Harris buying up every beach front home he can get his hands on! He has been down there long enough to see the high's and low's, yet he is still buying property. If you want to be successful, you need to start doing what successful people do. Otherwise, you can keep you money in the bank making pennies, or stocks waiting for the next "cook the books corporate scandal or 9/11" to whip your earnings out, or you can pray that social security is going to be there for you when you retire. Personally, I am happy to be one of your so called fools. I rather have a piece of sand any day that I can sit out on an watch sunsets, smell the salt air, and watch porpoises play than sitting with a bank CD trying to figure out when I can retire on the penny's its earned. You need to remember one important fact Shelly....God, is not making any more white beaches, especially ones with high elevations! More and more people are discovering this unique piece of paradise, and you can bet there will be lots of people, paying even bigger bucks to own a piece of it....that is the history of this area....and it will continue!

Let me guess....you write copy for Century 21. :biggrin:


For me personally, I wouldn't hold Doodle up as a measurement of my success...but to each his own.

I would like to know one thing though--you said, "the next real estate boom will begin shortly." Can you please expand on that for our viewing audience.?

And finally, about those white beaches that God ain't makin' no more...there's an old saying that goes "The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away." A good thing to remember when you're penciling out carrying costs. ;-)

[flyforfun]

[quote=flyforfun;194440]

Let me guess....you write copy for Century 21. :biggrin:


For me personally, I wouldn't hold Doodle up as a measurement of my success...but to each his own.

I would like to know one thing though--you said, "the next real estate boom will begin shortly." Can you please expand on that for our viewing audience.?

And finally, about those white beaches that God ain't makin' no more...there's an old saying that goes "The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away." A good thing to remember when you're penciling out carrying costs. ;-)

No Shelly, I don't work for any RE agency, flunked out of literature in school, but have a long history of buying and selling real estate in Alabama and along the Gulf Coast. Folks like Mr. Harris make more money in week than you will make in a life time cause he is good at what he does. I have meet people like you who are scared of their own shadow, keep their money in a interest bank account, tell everyone how stupid they are for taking a risk with investing their money and then struggle to make a small pension last a couple of years when they retire. Fear mongers like you are always wrong, and seem to be perpetually jealous of the people who have the courage to take even a small risk. You want to know when the market is going to improve, just look at the history of the area if you want the answer. Look at what the good RE speculators and investors are doing. They are keeping their mouths shout and letting people like you scare new property owners into selling early and at a bargain. I have seen this cycle or game played many times, and the winners stick around.

[SHELLY]

[quote=SHELLY;194470]

No Shelly, I don't work for any RE agency, flunked out of literature in school, but have a long history of buying and selling real estate in Alabama and along the Gulf Coast. Folks like Mr. Harris make more money in week than you will make in a life time cause he is good at what he does. I have meet people like you who are scared of their own shadow, keep their money in a interest bank account, tell everyone how stupid they are for taking a risk with investing their money and then struggle to make a small pension last a couple of years when they retire. Fear mongers like you are always wrong, and seem to be perpetually jealous of the people who have the courage to take even a small risk. You want to know when the market is going to improve, just look at the history of the area if you want the answer. Look at what the good RE speculators and investors are doing. They are keeping their mouths shout and letting people like you scare new property owners into selling early and at a bargain. I have seen this cycle or game played many times, and the winners stick around.


Glad you cleared that up......<didn't think so>.

.
(P.S. If you (and best pal Doodle) are raking in the dough and deals because of my "fear mongering"...one would think you'd be a bit more tickled and a lot less ticked? No?)

[fisher]

[quote=SHELLY;194470]

No Shelly, I don't work for any RE agency, flunked out of literature in school, but have a long history of buying and selling real estate in Alabama and along the Gulf Coast. Folks like Mr. Harris make more money in week than you will make in a life time cause he is good at what he does. I have meet people like you who are scared of their own shadow, keep their money in a interest bank account, tell everyone how stupid they are for taking a risk with investing their money and then struggle to make a small pension last a couple of years when they retire. Fear mongers like you are always wrong, and seem to be perpetually jealous of the people who have the courage to take even a small risk. You want to know when the market is going to improve, just look at the history of the area if you want the answer. Look at what the good RE speculators and investors are doing. They are keeping their mouths shout and letting people like you scare new property owners into selling early and at a bargain. I have seen this cycle or game played many times, and the winners stick around.

Do you know how much old Doodle makes in a week, a month or a year? He may be leveraged up to his eyeballs, maybe he will end up with bigger legal problems due to his tax issues, etc. Who knows, but I'm with Shelly, I wouldn't hold him up as my shining example of real estate investing.

You mention corporate scandals as a risk of stock ownership--have you not heard of the myriad of real estate scandals over the years including massive mortgage fraud resulting in billions of dollars of losses for investors and owners. Scandal and fraud happen in real estate, corporate America, churches, government, it can get you anywhere. The really big bucks these days are coming in the financial markets, not real estate. Just look at the bonuses paid on Wall Street this past year. Unbelievable amounts of money. Most real estate investors are watching the value of their portfolios wither right now.

A balanced portfolio seems prudent to me. Some real estate, some stocks, some bonds and yes some CD's. However, I personally wouldn't invest large chunks of my portifolio in the Second Home real estate areas right now be it in the mountains or the beaches. The second home markets are tumbling across the board and probably will for some time to come.

By the way, are you buying any of these great deals right now? If so, come back in five years and let us know specifically which of these doubled in value for you.

I'm glad you like Watersound and are happy with your little piece of the beach. I love the area too. But, I believe your view of the market is way off base. However, hope I'm wrong and you are right though for the sake of many, many friends and neighbors that are in over their heads due to the sinking market and rapidly rising interest rates on adjustable rate mortgages.

[redfisher]

blah, blah, blah

[flyforfun]

[quote=flyforfun;194475]


Glad you cleared that up......<didn't think so>.

.
(P.S. If you (and best pal Doodle) are raking in the dough and deals because of my "fear mongering"...one would think you'd be a bit more tickled and a lot less ticked? No?)

Well Shelly, I just think you are an amateur with regards to RE investing and your comments are out of line. Actually, your "fear mongering" helps slow down the paving of paradise, and creates great investment opportunities for the rest of us. I just don't appreciated being called a "fool" for doing it. I figured out a long time ago you dislike anyone who chooses to invest in real estate, especially if its paradise.

With regards to Doodle, I would not know him if he stood in line next to me at the grocery store. What I do know is that he is one of many who are extremely knowledgeable with regards to making money in real estate at the beach, and yes that is something I admire.:roll:

[flyforfun]

[quote=flyforfun;194475]

Do you know how much old Doodle makes in a week, a month or a year? He may be leveraged up to his eyeballs, maybe he will end up with bigger legal problems due to his tax issues, etc. Who knows, but I'm with Shelly, I wouldn't hold him up as my shining example of real estate investing.

You mention corporate scandals as a risk of stock ownership--have you not heard of the myriad of real estate scandals over the years including massive mortgage fraud resulting in billions of dollars of losses for investors and owners. Scandal and fraud happen in real estate, corporate America, churches, government, it can get you anywhere. The really big bucks these days are coming in the financial markets, not real estate. Just look at the bonuses paid on Wall Street this past year. Unbelievable amounts of money. Most real estate investors are watching the value of their portfolios wither right now.

A balanced portfolio seems prudent to me. Some real estate, some stocks, some bonds and yes some CD's. However, I personally wouldn't invest large chunks of my portifolio in the Second Home real estate areas right now be it in the mountains or the beaches. The second home markets are tumbling across the board and probably will for some time to come.

By the way, are you buying any of these great deals right now? If so, come back in five years and let us know specifically which of these doubled in value for you.

I'm glad you like Watersound and are happy with your little piece of the beach. I love the area too. But, I believe your view of the market is way off base. However, hope I'm wrong and you are right though for the sake of many, many friends and neighbors that are in over their heads due to the sinking market and rapidly rising interest rates on adjustable rate mortgages.

Fisher, staying balanced is important, and I do like tax free muni bonds over CD's. Nothing wrong with stocks, as long as you trust no one's cooking the books. Would feel more confident in investing in stocks if some of the fraudulent CEO's got the electric chair instead of being sent to federal country club prisons. I would never recommend anyone invest all their eggs in real estate for the short term or become highly leveraged, unless they are extremely knowledgeable of the market and can manage the risks. There are ups and downs with any kind of investing, but history shows there are big bucks to be made if you are a long term beach investor. Believe me, it want take five years for many to double their money with all the positive things happen at our coast! My view of the market is solid cause its based on experience, and experience does make the difference between winners and loosers when it comes to beach property.

[SHELLY]

[quote=SHELLY;194506]

Well Shelly, I just think you are an amateur with regards to RE investing and your comments are out of line. Actually, your "fear mongering" helps slow down the paving of paradise, and creates great investment opportunities for the rest of us. I just don't appreciated being called a "fool" for doing it. I figured out a long time ago you dislike anyone who chooses to invest in real estate, especially if its paradise.

With regards to Doodle, I would not know him if he stood in line next to me at the grocery store. What I do know is that he is one of many who are extremely knowledgeable with regards to making money in real estate at the beach, and yes that is something I admire.:roll:

Interesting post....albeit a bit hard to follow the logic.

So is Doodle like the Robert Kiyosaki of SoWal now?

BTW, I never directly labeled you with any name...soooo....just as in your post above, statements that don't apply, should be no big deal :idontno: <"Investors" Tip: Never let them see ya sweat.:biggrin: >

.

[flyforfun]

[quote=flyforfun;194602]

Interesting post....albeit a bit hard to follow the logic.

So is Doodle like the Robert Kiyosaki of SoWal?

BTW, I never directly labeled you with any name...soooo....just as in your post above, statements that don't apply, should be no big deal :idontno: <"Investors" Tip: Never let them see ya sweat.:biggrin: >

.


Shelly, just look at your avator and " Multi For Sale Sign" pic. Its pretty easy to know what you are all about long before you read any of your posts. You are all about scaring people away from buying a piece of paradise or building a dream. You probably do it, because its the only thing you are good at.

Doodle is a self made man and like others, he has done well in real estate at the beach. He consistantly hits home runs in a market where RE development of any kind is difficult. For those of us who have had to deal with all the curve balls that this county can throw at you, he has the ability to hit his out of the park.

[Babyblue]

[quote=SHELLY;194611]


Shelly, just look at your avator and " Multi For Sale Sign" pic. Its pretty easy to know what you are all about long before you read any of your posts. You are all about scaring people away from buying a piece of paradise or building a dream. You probably do it, because its the only thing you are good at.

Doodle is a self made man and like others, he has done well in real estate at the beach. He consistantly hits home runs in a market where RE development of any kind is difficult. For those of us who have had to deal with all the curve balls that this county can throw at you, he has the ability to hit his out of the park.

You are correct.

[fisher]

[quote=SHELLY;194611]


Shelly, just look at your avator and " Multi For Sale Sign" pic. Its pretty easy to know what you are all about long before you read any of your posts. You are all about scaring people away from buying a piece of paradise or building a dream. You probably do it, because its the only thing you are good at.

Doodle is a self made man and like others, he has done well in real estate at the beach. He consistantly hits home runs in a market where RE development of any kind is difficult. For those of us who have had to deal with all the curve balls that this county can throw at you, he has the ability to hit his out of the park.

If you don't know Doodle or Shelly, how can you make such broad sweeping statements. How do you know Doodle has done well in real estate? How do you know Shelly isn't a multizillionaire? Please elaborate on your investing in South Walton.

[flyforfun]

[quote=flyforfun;194616]

If you don't know Doodle or Shelly, how can you make such broad sweeping statements. How do you know Doodle has done well in real estate? How do you know Shelly isn't a multizillionaire? Please elaborate on your investing in South Walton.

Fisher, I own 9 pieces of beautiful real estate in Walton County, all of which are either beach or water front, and don't own a penny! I don't help banks or mortgage companies get rich, and only work with a select few of realtors. Doodle Harris developed Seacrest Beach, and has done a ton of good for Walton County. All you have to do is read Shelly's idiotic posts to realize she is either incompetent when it comes to real estate investing or is against beach development. Personally, I think Shelly is a "he" and probably lives in a trailer park and hugs tress for excitment and pleasure.:rolling:

[Paradise Sea]

FFF, My family and I have been investing in South Walton real estate for over 30 years with great success. I tend to agree with your assesment of the South Walton real estate market but I suggest you just ignore Shelly. Shelly's only pupose is to promote the negatives regarding the real estate market anywhere, anytime, anyplace. I suggest you follow the motto I adopted a few months ago..."Life's a bowl of jelly when you just ignore Shelly." Doesn't really make much sense but neither does she... and it makes me laugh.

[Paradise Sea]

By the way, you can actually block her posts, like I and I suspect many others have done but using the User CP and adding her to your ignore list.

[redfisher]

You just can't help it, can you Shelly? :whack: I think its just inexperience and class envy...Red

[Camp Creek Kid]

Shelly has said that he/she is a native of the Panhandle and misses the "good old days" pre-development. He/she may be negative toward development in general, but I think his main motive is to antagonize posters. He's like a pesty little brother Yyou love him, but some times he drives you crazy). If you've been on Sowal more than a year, you wouldn't underestimate Shelly's success, intelligence, or humor. This is all just a little funn for Shelly.

[hi n dry]

FFF, My family and I have been investing in South Walton real estate for over 30 years with great success. I tend to agree with your assesment of the South Walton real estate market but I suggest you just ignore Shelly. Shelly's only pupose is to promote the negatives regarding the real estate market anywhere, anytime, anyplace. I suggest you follow the motto I adopted a few months ago..."Life's a bowl of jelly when you just ignore Shelly." Doesn't really make much sense but neither does she... and it makes me laugh.

SHELLY’s early predictions of the coming real estate bubble burst were more accurate than most anyother poster.

SHELLY not only gives well researched information but writes in a flamboyant and witty style that makes sowal fun to read.

Anyone buying or selling anything, particularly real estate, would be wise to pay close attention to SHELLY’s posts.

Although I enjoy her posts I do not necessarily always agree with them.

It will be interesting if she can predict the future RE market and economy as well as she has the last few years.
_

[kurt]

Reminder to all - personal attacks are not allowed. Stick to attacking the issues.

[georgeinnwfl]

Shelly normally has facts, coupled with analysis. You may choose to agree or disagree with his analysis, however in either case his comments are insightful, and I rather enjoy reading them. Would someone care to chart Shelly's trend analysis with the Realtors or flippers!

Even the realtors with the MLS market data WILL NOT post the data any longer. Why? hmmmm One can ONLY speculate as to their reasons. WINK WINK. :-)

[Searcher]

"A prophet is not without honor except in his(or her) own country and in his(or her) own house."

[Paradise Sea]

If someone ALWAYS predicts the negative that someone will ALWAYS be right some of the time.:cool:

[fisher]

SHELLY’s early predictions of the coming real estate bubble burst were more accurate than most anyother poster.

SHELLY not only gives well researched information but writes in a flamboyant and witty style that makes sowal fun to read.

Anyone buying or selling anything, particularly real estate, would be wise to pay close attention to SHELLY’s posts.

Although I enjoy her posts I do not necessarily always agree with them.

It will be interesting if she can predict the future RE market and economy as well as she has the last few years.
_

Shelly and a few other posters saw the current real estate slaughter coming in mid-2005. Well before any other posters were seeing the signs or willing to admit they saw the ominous signs of a massive downturn in the market. Since those early posts by Shelly and a couple of others that got scorched by the rest of the community, the market has in fact dropped in some places by over 50% from the high water mark. This is particularly true on lots and condos in some of the big developments like Rosemary, The Preserve, Cypress Dunes, Watercolor and Watersound.

Say what you will about Shelly and these early predicters of the significant downturn in the market, but they called it right. The market shows no signs of coming back anytime soon and the only "facts" that the bulls post to support future growth tend to be comments regarding the beauty of the area, "they aren't making any more beaches", and other generic info. The real facts related to inventory, interest rate changes, the number of people ready, willing and ABLE to buy in this market, etc.continue to point toward softness in the market.

[Paradise Sea]

The real estate market goes both ways, up and down. I can see what has happend to real estate values in South Walton and I agree, in some places selling prices are down as much as 50%. But, just as in the rapidly appreciating markets of 2003 and 2004, past performance is not necessary a predictor of future performance. The economy is still growing, interest rates are relatively low and may actually fall in 2007 so who's to say the local real estate market will not turn around this year. I think the people who point out the beauty of the area, the new airport and other unique qualities are simply trying to remember why, over the last 30+ years, real estate in this area has been, and I believe will continue to be, such a great investment.

Just for perspective, if you bought a gulf front lot at Paradise by the Sea 10 years ago you would have paid about $250,000. Today, you MIGHT be able to by the same lot for $2,250,000. I'll take that kind of appreciation any day! Even if you think back only 5 years ago to 2001, and I bought property here that year, things didn't look all that great after 9/11. But, look at the amazing appreciation that has occured in the past 5 years. Even with the current correction the value of the property I bought back then has easily doubled!

Perhaps Shelly and her followers are right, the market for South Walton real estate is terrible and will take many years to recover but I seriously doubt this forecast. In fact, I strongly suspect that if you buy property in 2007 that by 2012 and 2017 you will be absolutely delighted with your decision and wonder how anyone could have been so foolish as to warn you against doing so.

[flyforfun]

Shelly and a few other posters saw the current real estate slaughter coming in mid-2005. Well before any other posters were seeing the signs or willing to admit they saw the ominous signs of a massive downturn in the market. Since those early posts by Shelly and a couple of others that got scorched by the rest of the community, the market has in fact dropped in some places by over 50% from the high water mark. This is particularly true on lots and condos in some of the big developments like Rosemary, The Preserve, Cypress Dunes, Watercolor and Watersound.

Say what you will about Shelly and these early predicters of the significant downturn in the market, but they called it right. The market shows no signs of coming back anytime soon and the only "facts" that the bulls post to support future growth tend to be comments regarding the beauty of the area, "they aren't making any more beaches", and other generic info. The real facts related to inventory, interest rate changes, the number of people ready, willing and ABLE to buy in this market, etc.continue to point toward softness in the market.


If you predict a down market long enough, eventually you will be right. Media hype over katrina and gulf coast damaged has more to do witht his slump than anything thing else. The condo market actually slowed down after the 2004 hurricane season. Now I will make a prediction, I predict a down market in stocks as soon as we have another 9/11 or another crook gets caught cooking the books or the next big scandle in mutual funds cause no one is policing these folks. People who invest in RE for the short term better know their markets good. I bought nothing in 2004-06, but I would not hesistate to buy now! If I won the Florida lottery tommrow, I would put ever penny on property along 30-A, especially in the big developments with all the nice ammenties. Beach real estate always rebounds, and rebounds strong!

[Bobby J]

[quote=fisher;194668]

Fisher, I own 9 pieces of beautiful real estate in Walton County, all of which are either beach or water front, and don't own a penny! I don't help banks or mortgage companies get rich, and only work with a select few of realtors. Doodle Harris developed Seacrest Beach, and has done a ton of good for Walton County. All you have to do is read Shelly's idiotic posts to realize she is either incompetent when it comes to real estate investing or is against beach development. Personally, I think Shelly is a "he" and probably lives in a trailer park and hugs tress for excitment and pleasure.:rolling:

:popcorn:

[SHELLY]

[quote=flyforfun;194704]

:popcorn:

I'm going back to the snackbar for some Milk Duds...can I bring back anything for anyone? :D

http://www.angelatheatre.net/snackbar2.jpg.

[Mango]

Shelly this Board would not be the same without your insightfulness and humor even if it inspires some ire ever now and then.

Now will you bring me back some Raisinets? :razz:

[Bobby J]

[quote=Bobby J;194895]

I'm going back to the snackbar for some Milk Duds...can I bring back anything for anyone? :D

http://www.angelatheatre.net/snackbar2.jpg.


Shelly,
You should no by now I would never eat that junk! I only shop at "For that health of it" in Blue Mountain! (Tasteful plug)

[SHELLY]

Shelly this Board would not be the same without your insightfulness and humor even if it inspires some ire ever now and then.

Now will you bring me back some Raisinets? :razz:

That will be $1.75

[Mango]

That will be $1.75

That's not what you told me before I posted. :roll:

[nmosley]

ok... now that I know the price, I would like some Goobers. Do you think the price will drop a bit if I wait until next week to buy?
:rolling:
It is freezing here in Houston and I am wishing I was there. Is it terribly cold this week? If so, stay warm if not, enjoy yourselves and be so glad!!!

[SHELLY]

ok... now that I know the price, I would like some Goobers. Do you think the price will drop a bit if I wait until next week to buy?


The possible increase in peanut prices will be off-set by softening Cocoa futures...so I predict Goobers will hold their price at $1.75 into next week.


.

[Mango]

ok... now that I know the price, I would like some Goobers. Do you think the price will drop a bit if I wait until next week to buy?
:rolling:
It is freezing here in Houston and I am wishing I was there. Is it terribly cold this week? If so, stay warm if not, enjoy yourselves and be so glad!!!

I am sure someone from the Peanuts Gallery will chime in with the price of nuts at some point. :razz:

[Miss Kitty]

ok... now that I know the price, I would like some Goobers. Do you think the price will drop a bit if I wait until next week to buy?
:rolling:
It is freezing here in Houston and I am wishing I was there. Is it terribly cold this week? If so, stay warm if not, enjoy yourselves and be so glad!!!

Hey neighbor! You got frozen stuff there? I am getting ready to call my daddy and make sure he stays home today.

Re: RE

If you have it, enjoy it.
If you don't have it, buy it.

:biggrin: ...have a nice day!

[TooFarTampa]

Question for all the realtors out there. I'm wondering how many of the current sellers fall into the following categories:

1) Must sell (either because they are purchasing something else or in real danger of foreclosure)

2) Want to sell because the market is no longer a good short-term or mid-term investment

3) Want to sell because they are tired of dealing with a second home or rental property

4) Are still "testing the waters" and looking to cash in on an investment of several years ago.

Where is all this supply coming from? Are there this many people in severe trouble? Are there still a lot of No. 4s out there, or far more No. 1s? I'm just curious as to why people who don't have to sell would even put their house on the market right now. I'd love to see what local realtors are hearing and seeing. Thanks.

SHELLY, would you bring me some SnoCaps while I wait for someone (besides yourself -- we know you are not a realtor ;-) ) to answer my question?

The reason I ask is because when the buyers do come back, it may be in a steady trickle, but it won't be a flood. If all of these people need to sell it will take a LONG time to get rid of the inventory. If there are people who don't need to sell and will be helped by, say, changes in the insurance and property tax laws, and then take their properties off the market, we will see more of a balance much more quickly. It would seem so, anyway. :idontno:

[JoshMclean]

I think many people still think they can get too much for their home. Many of these people are coming to that realization and pulling off of the market. In detached single family homes from Destin throught Inlet Beach, the inventory has dropped for 5 straight months. The inventory in July of 2006 was 2,605. As of December that number had dropped to 2206. Although sales had dropped during the slow season, so had the inventory. Really showing that those people are beginning to pull off of the market. I believe that number will also drop this month. I will let you know as soon as the month comes to an end. The sooner these people do pull off of the market we will see more of a stabilization. Although, buyers are better off with the high inventory. People are much more willing to deal when 5 houses on their street are on the market.

[Smiling JOe]

SHELLY, would you bring me some SnoCaps while I wait for someone (besides yourself -- we know you are not a realtor ;-) ) to answer my question?

The reason I ask is because when the buyers do come back, it may be in a steady trickle, but it won't be a flood. If all of these people need to sell it will take a LONG time to get rid of the inventory. If there are people who don't need to sell and will be helped by, say, changes in the insurance and property tax laws, and then take their properties off the market, we will see more of a balance much more quickly. It would seem so, anyway. :idontno:TFT, guessing the percentage of each of your categories would be difficult. There are several other reasons why some people are selling. From talking with many sellers, including FSBO (for sale by owners), I hear them saying that they do not have to sell. I think they are the majority by far. (one example is the vacant lot next to one I have listed. Basically, the lots are no different regarding type of lot, density, tree coverage, views, access, etc, yet the ForSaleByOwner (FSBO) is priced almost three times the price of the one I have actively listed. That FSBO seller has called me several times to check my price, but has never changed his price. He says that he doesn't have to sell.)

As for the "must sellers," the answer isn't so easy. Many of the must-sellers have more than one property listed, and when they sell one of the properties, they will likely pull the others off the market. This is what I hear from many of them. Some of these people may have between 2-5 properties currently available.

Then, there are other wishful, but over-priced, sellers who have pulled their listings off the market until it picks back up. So, when the market does begin to show a substantial increase in activity, look for these to be back on the market. Again, many of these are currently very overpriced based on the current market. They do not classify as have to sell and are wishful fishing.

I don't hear many sellers saying they fit into category number 2, though I am sure there are a few. In fact, I have been working with buyers who are buying for the opposite reason, though we are talking more "mid-term" rather than short term. (3-5 years) -- I know some people consider this long term, but I am more conservative.

There are a few who fall into your cat. 3, those who are tired of dealing with rental property, but those are very, very few.

[nmosley]

Go ahead and get me the Goobers...anybody want some?

Sue Shore, it is freezing this morning and I was pelted gently with some frozen mix earlier today while walking our dog. I would definitely recommend that your Dad stay indoors because it is just so bitter and they are expecting on and off precipitation all throughout the morning into the early afternoon. A few overpasses are closed and HISD schools are closed, but we are not nearly as hard-hit as areas up north of the city. Have an awesome day!

[TooFarTampa]

TFT, guessing the percentage of each of your categories would be difficult. There are several other reasons why some people are selling. From talking with many sellers, including FSBO (for sale by owners), I hear them saying that they do not have to sell. I think they are the majority by far. (one example is the vacant lot next to one I have listed. Basically, the lots are no different regarding type of lot, density, tree coverage, views, access, etc, yet the ForSaleByOwner (FSBO) is priced almost three times the price of the one I have actively listed. That FSBO seller has called me several times to check my price, but has never changed his price. He says that he doesn't have to sell.)

As for the "must sellers," the answer isn't so easy. Many of the must-sellers have more than one property listed, and when they sell one of the properties, they will likely pull the others off the market. This is what I hear from many of them. Some of these people may have between 2-5 properties currently available.

Then, there are other wishful, but over-priced, sellers who have pulled their listings off the market until it picks back up. So, when the market does begin to show a substantial increase in activity, look for these to be back on the market. Again, many of these are currently very overpriced based on the current market. They do not classify as have to sell and are wishful fishing.

I don't hear many sellers saying they fit into category number 2, though I am sure there are a few. In fact, I have been working with buyers who are buying for the opposite reason, though we are talking more "mid-term" rather than short term. (3-5 years) -- I know some people consider this long term, but I am more conservative.

There are a few who fall into your cat. 3, those who are tired of dealing with rental property, but those are very, very few.

THANK YOU SJ (and Josh too, :welcome: ). All of this makes sense. I really didn't need percentages; I was just looking for insight. Knowing the motivations of some of these sellers leads me to believe that in the mid-term (which I also consider 3-5 years) things look pretty good. It also is my opinion that if the Legislature can hammer out something intelligent related to insurance this week, more buyers will step forward. Maybe not a flood, but more buyers nonetheless. Now somebody pass the :popcorn:

[Smiling JOe]

We are only 17 days into the 2007 and I have already written two contracts for homes, closed on one of the two, and expect to write an offer on another one this afternoon. I have several other people who are ready to buy homes in the next two months. These are people looking for primary residences. I am definitely seeing much more business and interest than in 2006. I think 2007 is going to be better than the lull people are expecting, and I think that the 3-5 year term will see substantial appreciation for people buying the better valued properties today.

[hi n dry]

We are only 17 days into the 2007 and I have already written two contracts for homes, closed on one of the two, and expect to write an offer on another one this afternoon. I have several other people who are ready to buy homes in the next two months. These are people looking for primary residences. I am definitely seeing much more business and interest than in 2006. I think 2007 is going to be better than the lull people are expecting, and I think that the 3-5 year term will see substantial appreciation for people buying the better valued properties today.

Thank you SJ, you are very generous taking the time to share what is actually happening "on the ground".

In what price range and locations are you seeing the most interest?

[Smiling JOe]

Thank you SJ, you are very generous taking the time to share what is actually happening "on the ground".

In what price range and locations are you seeing the most interest?Pt Washington area has been the main focus, and price range in the $300K's.

Almost forgot, I have also closed on a lot in the Pt Washington area this year.

[JoshMclean]

I also wrote an offer yesterday. People moving in from outside the area. A gentleman in my office has $11 million set to close this month. IMO we will see about a 15-20% increase over 2006. Every year thereafter should continue to grow. I don't expect any booms in the near future, but who needs them? This area will continue to be a good investment for the future. No bubble bursting, simply well needed readjustments.

[flyforfun]

We are only 17 days into the 2007 and I have already written two contracts for homes, closed on one of the two, and expect to write an offer on another one this afternoon. I have several other people who are ready to buy homes in the next two months. These are people looking for primary residences. I am definitely seeing much more business and interest than in 2006. I think 2007 is going to be better than the lull people are expecting, and I think that the 3-5 year term will see substantial appreciation for people buying the better valued properties today.

I have three physicians who have been waiting to just for the second quarter to buy. Another could not wait that long and purchased a home in Sandestin last month. Its not going to get better than right now, and want be surprised if you don't have a record year, no matter what the fear mongers do to scare people away. There just is no better place to be than SoWal:welcome:

[Miss Kitty]

:clap_1: Go SJ Go!!!

[hi n dry]

Won’t the over supply of real estate inventory sharply increase as more sellers put their properties on the market in the Spring?


How far are we away from the 1980’s scenario when there were foreclosure auctions in front of condos and developments?

[spinDrAtl]

In the mid to late 80's, although able to see the opportunity, I was just a young pup without the means to take advantage at that time. I was able to get in during the 90's and now when there is panic in the streets and foreclosures everywhere, I for one will start looking seriously to buy.

[Indigo Jill]

In the mid to late 80's, although able to see the opportunity, I was just a young pup without the means to take advantage at that time. I was able to get in during the 90's and now when there is panic in the streets and foreclosures everywhere, I for one will start looking seriously to buy.

:clap_1: I, like you spinDrAtl, see the opportunity but, unlike you at this point, don't have the means to invest in more right now (I'm working on it, though :roll: ) but if I did, I would be seriously looking myself (and would be looking at it as a long term investment).

I think the key, too, is to not put all your eggs in one basket. It appears to me many people put all their bets into real estate over the last few years - drawing from their 401(K)s or using much or all their equity in their primary or secondary homes as down payments to purchase more real estate for example. Does anyone else think that is pure insanity??

[flyforfun]

In the mid to late 80's, although able to see the opportunity, I was just a young pup without the means to take advantage at that time. I was able to get in during the 90's and now when there is panic in the streets and foreclosures everywhere, I for one will start looking seriously to buy.

Yea, I remember that market! I spent 6 weekends that year looking for property, and never bought a thing. That was when you could by beach front lots for 100K! There was so much for sale, it was scary! You could drive down 30-A and you think it was an election year, and I thought Seaside would be chapter 7 in a matter of months with the price of their 40-50K lots! I don't think prices are not going to ever get as good as they are now!

[Chickpea]

:clap_1: I, like you spinDrAtl, see the opportunity but, unlike you at this point, don't have the means to invest in more right now (I'm working on it, though :roll: ) but if I did, I would be seriously looking myself (and would be looking at it as a long term investment).

I think the key, too, is to not put all your eggs in one basket. It appears to me many people put all their bets into real estate over the last few years - drawing from their 401(K)s or using much or all their equity in their primary or secondary homes as down payments to purchase more real estate for example. Does anyone else think that is pure insanity??

I agree and like you WISH I had some $$$ to invest....:idontno:

[SHELLY]

I think the key, too, is to not put all your eggs in one basket. It appears to me many people put all their bets into real estate over the last few years - drawing from their 401(K)s or using much or all their equity in their primary or secondary homes as down payments to purchase more real estate for example. Does anyone else think that is pure insanity??

http://www.rockola.com/morepix/Web_Pix_2003/Raleigh_2003/hands_up.jpg

[TheSheep]

I think many people still think they can get too much for their home. Many of these people are coming to that realization and pulling off of the market. In detached single family homes from Destin throught Inlet Beach, the inventory has dropped for 5 straight months. The inventory in July of 2006 was 2,605. As of December that number had dropped to 2206.
How strange as the high season for rentals approaches. Perhaps they were never really market Sellers at all? Now don't want to put up with the flood of incoming?

[fisher]

A thread from about 1 year ago--

I have three physicians who have been waiting to just for the second quarter to buy. Another could not wait that long and purchased a home in Sandestin last month. Its not going to get better than right now, and want be surprised if you don't have a record year, no matter what the fear mongers do to scare people away. There just is no better place to be than SoWal:welcome:

..or maybe now???

[SHELLY]

:roll: Jeez, these old flashback threads....

Happy 2 year Anniversary!


And what about my "Imminent Economic Meltdown"...Shelly, where is it?

Red,

It's here.


Shel.


.

[redfisher]

Really?..Feels more like 1998 to me...Red