Ariel Dunes II Pre-construction...

[Unplugged]

Has anyone on the forum reserved in this project? Thoughts/ comments?

[driftwood]

Yes I have a contract for a 2 br unit. My bias opinon is that it is going to be great! What are you trying to find out about it?

[Beachside]

Considering the success of Sandestin with the buildings that are off the beach but with a gulf view and included within the resort amenities, Ariel Dunes should do very well. One Beach Club and Luau are major successes.

Luau in Sandestin is already flipping 2 Bedroom units that they paid $500 - 600,000 for $900m - $1,100,000 and the building will not even close until July 2006.

[Unplugged]

I'm encouraged by contract assignments listing for $200K above orig purchase. Also, the location on Scenic 98 seems ideal: a nice sunset Gulf view yet just far enough off the beach to enjoy a slight buffer from the storms...

http://www.arieldunesii.com/location.html (http://)

[kurt]

I think this may be it.


http://www.sowal.com/051209-019.jpg

[Smiling JOe]

a sketch of Ariel Dunes II

[Smiling JOe]

We have two 2 br's in Luau and looking to flip one of them. I saw a handful of listings, but haven't seen any that have closed. Do you know of any that have closed?They will not close until the CO is issued, expected mid 2006.

[ecopal]

>>>Beachside:12-16-2005 03:21 PM
"Luau in Sandestin is already flipping 2 Bedroom units that they paid $500 - 600,000 for $900m - $1,100,000 and the building will not even close until July 2006."<<<



sounds like the real estate market is alive and well in Sandestin.

[Smiling JOe]

True, but that wouldn't preclude the listing agent to put the listing in 'Pending'. There are none in pending, all are active. So I'm wondering if the poster above giving the handsome figures is relying on the available listings or does he/she know of some that are privately offered and are pending.

If a unit is reserved, according to the rules of the MLS, the listing is required to be changed to "reserved" within 24 hours. However, not everyone follows the rules.
Regarding the units in Luau, only 11 units have been entered as listed, and all 11 of them are listed as "active." Since there are more than 11 units in this building, this probably indicates that the other Agents are not following the rules of the MLS, or that the other units have not been listed. I have a good guess of which is correct.;-)

[SHELLY]

>>>Beachside:12-16-2005 03:21 PM
"Luau in Sandestin is already flipping 2 Bedroom units that they paid $500 - 600,000 for $900m - $1,100,000 and the building will not even close until July 2006."<<<



sounds like the real estate market is alive and well in Sandestin.

...or they haven't run out of "greater fools" in Sandestin. :biggrin:

[SHELLY]

I'll let you know in six months. I doubt we'll get it with an assignment, but fortunately I don't need to sell. We'll get that figure but, it may be in 2 - 3 years.

It's a good thing you don't need to sell...you'd have far too much competition from those who DO need to sell to keep from being eaten alive by increasing interest rates, taxes, insurance and association/management fees. Between "investor" selling on one end (there are lots of panhandle condos flooding the market now and more to come in the Spring), developers throwing up more condos on the other end and "vulture capitalists" getting ready to pick the bones of "in too deep" speculators in the middle, I think the days of double-digit appreciation rates are pretty much history. (33% annual appreciation @ 2 years or 22% annual appreciation @ 3 years might be a bit too ambitious)

[SHELLY]

I can't imagine doing another preconstruction in this market. No way would I do it.

Maybe you won't do it...but the developers are still throwing condos up and they are still pulling in the ever-dwindling number of "fools."

Florida is predicting a slower tourist season this summer and the weather service is predicting a very active hurricane season. These two things combined, along with a tightening money supply, decreasing exotic lending products, increasing insurance/taxes, increasing HOA/property management fees, and flooding of the condo market by speculators desperate to dump their properties will, IMO, signal the beginning of the end for the "Era of the Pre-Construction Condos for Fun and Profit" in Florida.

[Just_In_Thyme]

Where did you see that Fl. is predicitng a slower than usual tourist season?
Is anyone seeing a slowdown in bookings for their properties for 2006??

[beachmouse]

Reports/predictions I've seen for tourist season 2006 expect moderate increases statewide.

[SHELLY]

Where did you see that Fl. is predicitng a slower than usual tourist season?
Is anyone seeing a slowdown in bookings for their properties for 2006??

FLORIDA TOURISM 2006 (http://news.tbo.com/news/metro/MGBEJ2QFTHE.html)

[Just_In_Thyme]

Thanks for the link.

It states they are predicting a 3.2 % increase in visitors in 2006. Higher than the 2% increase expected in visits to the US, but substantially lower than 7% increase in Fl tourism between 2003 and 2004.

I guess it is all how you interpret it. Fl. will see an increase in visitors, just not as much as in previous years. Maybe that means our beaches will be a little less crowded this summer. That would be fine w/me.

[SHELLY]

Thanks for the link.
I guess it is all how you interpret it. Fl. will see an increase in visitors, just not as much as in previous years. Maybe that means our beaches will be a little less crowded this summer. That would be fine w/me.

Me too!

[WiLe]

Why don't you read your link? A 3.2% INCREASE is not a "slower" tourist season. The first three months of 2005 was the most lucrative quarter in Orlando tourism history - and that's coming off the 4 hurricanes of 2004. Your MO pretty much comes down to throwing as much crap as you can think of against the wall and hope some of sticks.

From my perspective it is you who is following the herd. The herd is not screaming "buy real estate." The reverse is true. It appears that you get your jollies by laughing at the fools who bought at the top. History shows that unless those "fools" are overleveraged, it is they who will be having the last laugh. Regarding PRIME real estate, what looks high today will look cheap down the road. The coast between Gulf Shores and Carabelle 10 - 15 years out bears no resemblence to what it looks like today. I'm sure that pains you, but fact is a lot of fortunes are going to be made.

According to your logic, the intelligent investor goes in and out of markets at just the right time, taking profits and leaving the all the fools behind to drown in debt. Fact is, while there are some people who bought at the top of the last peak and won't be able to hold on, there are probably many more that bought when prices were dramatically lower and are either sitting on or locked in huge profits. Some of those people no doubt threw some of those profits into more property at the "peak." So what else is new? From my experience, the real losers are the people who sit on the side lines and pooh-pooh the doers.

Developers are continuing on doing what they do because they have learned to look beyond their noses. Its ridiculous to believe that the Gulf coast is "over." When the last piece of property is developed to its highest and best use for the foreseeable future, then it will be over.

I'd be interested in hearing what you have actually done, beyond observing and commenting?

Edit: I see that the 3.2% increase was addressed while I was typing. I'll leave my post up anyway.

[Unplugged]

Why don't you read your link? A 3.2% INCREASE is not a "slower" tourist season. The first three months of 2005 was the most lucrative quarter in Orlando tourism history - and that's coming off the 4 hurricanes of 2004. Your MO pretty much comes down to throwing as much crap as you can think of against the wall and hope some of sticks.

From my perspective it is you who is following the herd. The herd is not screaming "buy real estate." The reverse is true. It appears that you get your jollies by laughing at the fools who bought at the top. History shows that unless those "fools" are overleveraged, it is they who will be having the last laugh. Regarding PRIME real estate, what looks high today will look cheap down the road. The coast between Gulf Shores and Carabelle 10 - 15 years out bears no resemblence to what it looks like today. I'm sure that pains you, but fact is a lot of fortunes are going to be made.

According to your logic, the intelligent investor goes in and out of markets at just the right time, taking profits and leaving the all the fools behind to drown in debt. Fact is, while there are some people who bought at the top of the last peak and won't be able to hold on, there are probably many more that bought when prices were dramatically lower and are either sitting on or locked in huge profits. Some of those people no doubt threw some of those profits into more property at the "peak." So what else is new? From my experience, the real losers are the people who sit on the side lines and pooh-pooh the doers.

Developers are continuing on doing what they do because they have learned to look beyond their noses. Its ridiculous to believe that the Gulf coast is "over." When the last piece of property is developed to its highest and best use for the foreseeable future, then it will be over.

I'd be interested in hearing what you have actually done, beyond observing and commenting?

Edit: I see that the 3.2% increase was addressed while I was typing. I'll leave my post up anyway.

Well said WiLe - I think many of us echo your sentiments...

[Smiling JOe]

I agree, WiLe -- Well stated. A 3.2% increase in tourism doesn't mean less people on the beach. With time, the people buying at the peaks will be sitting pretty in the future. It is not timing the market that pays, it is time in the market.

[wetwilly]

Well said WiLe - I think many of us echo your sentiments...

Ditto

[OnMackBayou]

Judging by the traffic I've seen here during the holidays, the 3.2% growth has begun!

[OnMackBayou]

Since someone brought this up.....
A 3.2% increase in tourism means an additional 2.5 million visitors over last year.

Welcome y'all! (This is from WOAI in San Antonio).

Florida tourism expected to jump 3.2 percent next year
LAST UPDATE: 12/15/2005 10:14:20 AM


FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) - About 3.2 percent more visitors will come to Florida next year, despite worries from the public about the busy hurricane seasons, the state's tourism marketing agency said Thursday.

That outlook is higher than the national forecast of 2 percent more visitors to the U.S. next year, Visit Florida said.

The agency recently said that Florida is on track to surpass the 80 million visitor mark for the first time this year. If that figure holds, and the forecast is correct, that would mean an additional 2.5 million people would visit the state in 2006.

"If we did not have the challenge of hurricanes, our visitor numbers could be higher," said Bud Nocera, president and chief executive of Visit Florida.

Tourism is Florida's biggest industy, with annual revenues of about $57 billion.

[Just_In_Thyme]

Things just don't look that glum do they Shelly?

[SHELLY]

Things just don't look that glum do they Shelly?

Not for me...but that's because I'm not hoping to unload pre-construction condos--I have no dogs in this hunt. They say the markets run on greed and fear; we've already experienced the former (which IMO destroyed my state), now the latter is just beginning to kick in. The big real estate plays for the next couple of years will be auction houses and manufacturing "For Sale" signs.

[SHELLY]

Why don't you read your link? A 3.2% INCREASE is not a "slower" tourist season.

It is "slower" if one experienced a 7% increases in years past. Let's put it this way: If condo prices increased 25% in the last 3 years and now condo prices will increase 5% in 2006 year versus 25% in 2005 that would be "slower" appreciation--No?

Personally, I think tourism will do OK as long as folks who recently bought rental houses/condos at SKY-HIGH prices (and increasing costs) don't expect to crack a profit. Nothing will scare the tourists away faster than being told their "usual" rental condo went from $1400 to $2500 per week. :eek:

[WiLe]

Why didn't you say that then? A "slower" tourist season (which is what you said) and slower RATE OF GROWTH (which your link stated) are two entirely different things. Kinda think you really meant to imply that less people are planning on vacationing in Florida this summer so you'd have yet another reason to call people who aren't smart as you fools. You do that quite a lot you know.

Some of your points are obviously true and the key word there is OBVIOUS. What makes you think that you know more about the RE market than someone who actually has money invested in it? If there was "greater fool theory" at work, that point was passed several months ago and the last person who threw money in it at the peak and can't hold on until things get better, probably already knows he's in hot water at this point, don't you think?

This too shall pass as it always does and the doers who are invested and can afford to stay that way will be rewarded. Boom, bust, boom, bust, boom, bust..... The guy who bought just before the first bust is in pretty good shape at the last bust ... much better of than the feller (er lady), who stands on the sidelines observing and commenting.

[Smiling JOe]

It is "slower" if one experienced a 7% increases in years past. Let's put it this way: If condo prices increased 25% in the last 3 years and now condo prices will increase 5% in 2006 year versus 25% in 2005 that would be "slower" appreciation--No?

Personally, I think tourism will do OK as long as folks who recently bought rental houses/condos at SKY-HIGH prices (and increasing costs) don't expect to crack a profit. Nothing will scare the tourists away faster than being told their "usual" rental condo went from $1400 to $2500 per week. :eek:
I don't understand how you interpret the information to mean that we will have a "slower tourist season." If more people come, does this mean that the lines to get into restaurants will be longer and thus slower to move, or does it simply mean that service will be slower because more people are here? I guess it could also mean that traffic will be slower. :funn: You really know how to state your case, Shelly.

[SHELLY]

I don't understand how you interpret the information to mean that we will have a "slower tourist season."

Gee....and I even typed it slow to help you understand :idontno:

(P.S. You are right about two things--service and traffic will be slow this vacation season regardless of the number of visitors who come.
Definition of 'SLOW' in the above context: Not moving or able to move quickly; Taking or requiring a long time.)

[SHELLY]

If there was "greater fool theory" at work, that point was passed several months ago and the last person who threw money in it at the peak and can't hold on until things get better, probably already knows he's in hot water at this point, don't you think?

Nope...hence the name "greater fool."

[kurt]

Feel free to start all the market discussion threads you want, but this thread was started about a particular project. Thanks.

[Unplugged]

Yes I have a contract for a 2 br unit. My bias opinon is that it is going to be great! What are you trying to find out about it?

Here's a photo of the project taken today:

[dbuck]

Nothing will scare the tourists away faster than being told their "usual" rental condo went from $1400 to $2500 per week. :eek:

Shelly, you are so correct with this statement. Several families from our area have started going other places in Florida or Alabama because the Destin area rentals are more expensive (especially in the summer) than the surrounding areas.

[Smiling JOe]

Interesting -- 19 Ariel Dunes units were entered as listed and pending yesterday, even though the listing date was Feb '04. I wonder if someone reported them as not entering the listings and that got the agent(s) moving.

[Unplugged]

Interesting -- 19 Ariel Dunes units were entered as listed and pending yesterday, even though the listing date was Feb '04. I wonder if someone reported them as not entering the listings and that got the agent(s) moving.
I found that interesting also... the MLS is a very useful tool to help track some of our investments. We have a 2/2 under contract in bldg #2 and are looking forward to assigning or closing/ renting, whichever the market dictates - either way it's been a fun investment so far.

[kurt]

Interesting -- 19 Ariel Dunes units were entered as listed and pending yesterday, even though the listing date was Feb '04. I wonder if someone reported them as not entering the listings and that got the agent(s) moving.

:scratch:

[cooleydog]

Does anyone have any opinion of Ariel Dunes I vs. Ariel Dunes II??

Thanks.

[cooleydog]

Does anyone have any opinion of Ariel Dunes I vs. Ariel Dunes II?? Are there more specific project completion dates on either?

Thanks.

[dsilvar]

Does anyone have any opinion of Ariel Dunes I vs. Ariel Dunes II?? Are there more specific project completion dates on either?

Thanks.

We have been told that closing will probably be in July. After the inital walk thru you will have 30 days to close. they havent disclosed who will go first and who second, altho' I imagine it will be bottom units first. This for Ariel dunes 1.
AD2 is a virtual carbon copy of AD1. I have seen some AD2 preconstruction units listed for much more than their equivalent AD1 counterparts. AD2 is slated to close in fall.
I was lucky to get a tour of the building (AD1) and the views of bay and gulf are outstanding..from the 10th floor up. All the swiming pools (3) must be completed before the OC is issued. There is limited covered parking. thats about it.

[dsilvar]

Does anyone have any opinion of Ariel Dunes I vs. Ariel Dunes II??

Thanks.
AD1 has a much better view of the gulf and bay than AD2. just my opinion tho" :biggrin:

[cooleydog]

how did you get a tour of the building? did you just contact the sales office?

thanks.

[dsilvar]

how did you get a tour of the building? did you just contact the sales office?

thanks.
No..Well I dont want to get anyone in trouble here..but my trip up was unofficial and only lasted for an hour. We tried a few days later to get an "official visit" but were told unequivocally, that was "impossible". No ammount of coaxing did any good. Of course I did'nt tell them I had already been up! Someone could have gotten fired for breaking the rules. :(

[Unplugged]

Here are some VIEWS (http://www.smugmug.com/gallery/1579002) from Ariel Dunes Tower I (19th floor).

There are some incredible buys in Tower I right now.

ADII closings may be closer to Spring '07.

The higher units in Tower II will have spectacular sunset views.

________________________________

[cooleydog]

Ariel Dunes I got CO last Friday. Closings to commence July 3rd. Seascape is rental company in building. Grand Shores Mgmt is HOA company.

Anyone have comments on Seascape as rental company?

[Unplugged]

Ariel Dunes I got CO last Friday. Closings to commence July 3rd. Seascape is rental company in building. Grand Shores Mgmt is HOA company.

Anyone have comments on Seascape as rental company? Good news re the Certificate of Occupancy :clap_1:

I thought ResortQuest was the exclusive on-site rental company - no?
_______________________________

[Unplugged]

Tower II update: C.O. is now projected for 2/15/07.

Agents: check out today's MLS price change for a 2 br in tower II (http://www.arieldunesii.com/)... :shock:
___________________________________

[SHELLY]

Tower II update: C.O. is now projected for 2/15/07.

Agents: check out today's MLS price change for a 2 br in tower II (http://www.arieldunesii.com/)... :shock:
___________________________________


Just in time for the big Spring Sale-a-thon!


.:clap_1:


.

[Babyblue]

Not for me...but that's because I'm not hoping to unload pre-construction condos--I have no dogs in this hunt. They say the markets run on greed and fear; we've already experienced the former (which IMO destroyed my state), now the latter is just beginning to kick in. The big real estate plays for the next couple of years will be auction houses and manufacturing "For Sale" signs.

Where did you purchase your crystal ball? I want to get one.....:funn:

[SHELLY]

Where did you purchase your crystal ball? I want to get one.....:funn:

Actually, it's more of a "bubble" than a "crystal ball."


http://www.startribune.com/stonline/images/news52/1sack052905.l.jpg

[Babyblue]

Actually, it's more of a "bubble" than a "crystal ball."


http://www.startribune.com/stonline/images/news52/1sack052905.l.jpg

I see. So you really don't know what the future will hold? :eek:

[fisher]

I see. So you really don't know what the future will hold? :eek:


Come on--no one knows for certain what the future will hold. But, you can make educated guesses based on reals factors in the marketplace.

Why dispute what Shelly and others are saying about the downward spiral in the market based on solid factual evidence without presenting any factual evidence to the contrary?

If you take a careful look at the landscape in South Walton County and many, many other areas of the country, it sure looks like the downward slide in home prices will continue. If I'm not mistaken, this is the first time in history that the average price of a home in the US has fallen for four straight months with no end in sight.

The law of supply and demand applies to the housing market just like it does to any other marketplace. Right now there is an overwhelming amount of inventory on the market along 30A and the rest of South Walton with much more to come in Alys, Watersound, Watersound West Beach, Watercolor, The Preserve, Redfish Village, Sanctuary by the Sea, Ariel Dunes, etc, etc. Until the inventory issue gets resolved, there will be major downward pressure on prices as people that must sell such as builders and investors continue to lower prices in order to get rid of the lead weights hanging around their necks. You don't need a crystal ball to see the current state of the market or to make a very educated guess that the doldrums will continue for quite some time.

The only way to conclude that the market is headed anywhere but south is to ignore all of the facts about the current state of the market.

[SHELLY]

I see. So you really don't know what the future will hold? :eek:

Oh, but I do.....to quote the British economist, John Maynard Keynes, "In the long run, we're all dead." :cool:



.

[Babyblue]

Oh, but I do.....to quote the British economist, John Maynard Keynes, "In the long run, we're all dead." :cool:



.

To quote me "The sun will rise tomorrow."

[SHELLY]

To quote me "The sun will rise tomorrow."

Funny, I thought "Little Orphan Annie" said that.

.http://img.webring.com/r/b/broadwayannie/logo

[Babyblue]

Funny, I thought "Little Orphan Annie" said that.

.http://img.webring.com/r/b/broadwayannie/logo

She was one also.

[Unplugged]

Tower II update: C.O. is now projected for 2/15/07.

Agents: check out today's MLS price change for a 2 br in tower II (http://www.arieldunesii.com/)... :shock:
___________________________________They are now conducting owner walk-through inspections. I'm curious if anyone reading this has been in tower II and what your impressions were.
________________________________________

[cooleydog]

They are now conducting owner walk-through inspections. I'm curious if anyone reading this has been in tower II and what your impressions were.
________________________________________

Is C.O. still scheduled for 2/15? When will closings begin?

[Unplugged]

Is C.O. still scheduled for 2/15? When will closings begin?Yes - according to my sources, they are on track. Closings will most-likely start asap after this date.
____________________________________

[FL Dawg]

FYI - The anticipated C/O date has been pushed up to Feb. 1, 2007.