General State of the Real Estate Market?

[lenzoe]

What's the general feeling on the current state of the real estate market in So. Walton? Seems like pre-construction development opportunities are still being snapped up at a furious pace, but what about the re-sale market? I've been watching the MLS listings for the past year and I'm wondering if the pace of sales of existing units has slowed.

I don't have any hard statistics, but I do see units that have been on the market for quite a few months at the same price. I've even seen a couple listings where the price was dropped, which was a shocker.

I suppose late Fall and Winter MLS viewing doesn't give a complete picture, but I keep wondering -- more units on the market, more development, higher prices, rising interest rates, etc...

Of course that's just from browsing the MLS remotely here. Everytime I visit the area I still get the strong urge to buy everything in sight. I think it's something in the water.

[kurt]

It's not something in the water. It IS the water. :lol:

I expect this summer will be very active.

[Just_In_Thyme]

It seems to me around Seagrove the prices continue to rise and they still sell. I keep thinking it will slow, but I haven't seen it yet.

[Camp Creek Kid]

I've been told by a property appraiser that property owners in S. Walton can expect a 6-16% appreciation PER MONTH. That is opposed to last year when it was 6-12%. My home's value has literally doubled in 1 year. Also, the demographics of who is buying has changed. "Regular people" have been priced out of the market--they'll have to start looking in Freeport or PCB. Now most buyers in S. Walton are very wealthy.

This appraiser said the market in Destin is now comparable to Naples, FL and everything is moving East. PCB is booming with redevelopment and Mexico Beach, Appalachicola are next.

[RiverOtter]

This appraiser said the market in Destin is now comparable to Naples, FL and everything is moving East. PCB is booming with redevelopment and Mexico Beach, Appalachicola are next.

I rented a house in Port ST Joe several years ago. The house was asesome! The beach stunk! The water was murkey / dirty. Cannonball jelly fish eveywhere. I didn't like it much. Mexico Beach looked nice but that was before the hurricane. SJ said Mexico Beach is kinda loud due to military jets.

[Smiling JOe]

I rented a house in Port ST Joe several years ago. The house was asesome! The beach stunk! The water was murkey / dirty. Cannonball jelly fish eveywhere. I didn't like it much. Mexico Beach looked nice but that was before the hurricane. SJ said Mexico Beach is kinda loud due to military jets.

... and it has the same fishy, murky water as Appalachicola and Port St Joe. However, the water has not stopped the buyers. The property in that area may look attractively priced unless you see the beautiful emerald green water here first. As Kurt stated earlier, it "is the water" that sells people on buying here. In Port St Joe, it is the price, not the water.

[kurt]

I don't have any hard statistics, but I do see units that have been on the market for quite a few months at the same price. I've even seen a couple listings where the price was dropped, which was a shocker.


Some properties that are pushing the price ceiling are going to be on the market for a few months, especially in the winter, and then the market catches up.

Some properties in demand are selling same day.

There is a huge shortage of certain properties that sell before they hit the MLS, like pre-construction, gulf front and near gulf front land, houses, and condos.

[lenzoe]

I've been told by a property appraiser that property owners in S. Walton can expect a 6-16% appreciation PER MONTH. That is opposed to last year when it was 6-12%. My home's value has literally doubled in 1 year. Also, the demographics of who is buying has changed. "Regular people" have been priced out of the market--they'll have to start looking in Freeport or PCB. Now most buyers in S. Walton are very wealthy.

This appraiser said the market in Destin is now comparable to Naples, FL and everything is moving East. PCB is booming with redevelopment and Mexico Beach, Appalachicola are next.
That's interesting, but I've always felt appraiser's are better at telling you what has happened than predicting the future.

Are prices in Destin higher than South Walton? I was thinking it was the other way around. Last time I did comparisions about a year ago, that's the way it seemed to me.

I've heard the comparisons to Naples before -- as in, if you think So Wal is high, just look at Naples, we've got a way to go. But I don't know what the figures on comparable Naples sales are.

[Paula]

Just curious... What makes the So. Walton water emerald and the other water murky? Thanks.

[Smiling JOe]

The absence of rivers flowing into the Gulf, make the waters emerald. Look at a map and you will be able to see. Rivers tend to have decaying plant matter which darkens the water, just like Western Lake. When Western Lake flows out into the Gulf, the water around that area becomes saturated with the darker water too.

[kurt]

The Gulf of Mexico along the beaches of Destin & SoWal is so clear because no large, sediment-heavy rivers directly influence the waters. The water coming out of the Apalachicola River, the primary source of our Gulf water, is filtered through the estuary of Apalachicola Bay. While passing through this bay and out past the barrier islands in that area, the Gulf water deposits most of the silt and other sediments, that for example, make the Atlantic less translucent. The Gulf water along the beaches of Destin & SoWal appears aqua green because of the purity and hence crystal clarity of the water. The shallowness of the Gulf and the high reflectivity of light off our sugar-white sands also help to create our beautiful translucent water.

The sand on Destin & South Walton's beaches is extremely fine. This is due to the enormous amount of travel the sand went through to reach its destination. The sand along Beaches of Destin & SoWal was once part of the southern Appalachian Mountains. Over millions of years, as the mountains weathered, particles of quartz were washed into riverbeds and transported by the river to the ocean. The flow and ebb of the water over this long distance broke down the particles and buffed the edges making them as fine as sugar when they finally rested along the shore in the area.

[Smiling JOe]

bravo! well stated!

[RiverOtter]

:blink: Wow! Well said :blink:

[Cork On the Ocean]

Doesn't look like things are slowing down.

Areas 17 & 18 DSF: Sold 01/01/04-03/28/04
Total # of Sales 106
Lowest Price Listing $125,000
Highest Price Listing $3,650,000
Average Price $830,055
Ave Price/sq ft $376.20
Avg. Days on Market 171


Areas 17 & 18 DSF: Sold 01/01/05-03/28/05
Total # of Sales 107
Lowest Price Listing $217,000
Highest Price Listing $5,200,000
Average Price $1,048,975
Ave Price/sq ft $506.64
Avg. Days on Market 102


Areas 17 & 18 Condos: Sold 01/01/04-03/28/04
Total # of Sales 78
Lowest Price Listing $119,000
Highest Price Listing $3,000,000
Average Price $696,019
Ave Price/sq ft $446.63
Avg. Days on Market 130

Areas 17 & 18 Condos: Sold 01/01/05-03/28/05
Total # of Sales 82
Lowest Price Listing $213,000
Highest Price Listing $2,950,000
Average Price $913,319
Ave Price/sq ft $622.29
Avg. Days on Market 114

Areas 17 & 18 Res Land: Sold 01/01/04-03/28/04
Total # of Sales 205
Lowest Price Listing $49,900
Highest Price Listing $6,300,00
Average Price $428,600
Avg. Days on Market 160

Areas 17 & 18 Res Land: Sold 01/01/05-03/28/05
Total # of Sales 163
Lowest Price Listing $30,000
Highest Price Listing $18,000,000
Average Price $709,590
Avg. Days on Market 69

[lenzoe]

Doesn't look like things are slowing down.
Hey, these are good statistics. Much better to have data than the ancecdotal and somebody told me something rumors. Thanks.

Do you have access to the total number of units on the market for the same periods?

[Cork On the Ocean]

Good Question. I think you're wanting to know how many were available versus how many sold. Am I right?

Yes, can run the number of units on the market during that period but that won't give us what we need because active listings will be on the market for 69-171 days so active listings during the same time frame will show up sold or expired at a later date. The sold ones were actually active over the previous 69-171 days.

Also, expired listings won't give us that data because some people could list for 2 weeks and some for 3 months. The ones for 2 weeks will show expired 6 times over the 3 months so we'd get duplications of those numbers. Will need to think on that one. If you're looking for percent sold, don't know. Can run the percentage of asking price that they actually sold for. The ballpark average was that DSF's sold for about 5.2% less than asking price.

[Paula]

A belated thanks for the information about why the water and sand so beautiful in Destin and South Walton. This is all news to me. Thanks!

[GraytonBound]

Doesn't look like things are slowing down.

WOW :shock:
Thanks for the info!

[Cil]

In terms of water clarity, are the barrier islands any better? What about places such as St George Island, Cape San Blas, Dog Island? (I notice St George allows dogs at the Franklin County beaches.)

I know that SoWal and Denver, Colorado could not be more different, but in terms of real estate, I see similarities. When prices began rising about ten years ago, we waited for the bubble to burst. And waited. And waited. Houses in our old, established neighborhood are now going for three, four and five hundred dollars a square foot.

But I think the similarities only go so far...the beach will likely be more popular than the mountains for all the aging Boomers who seek retirement spots.
And the changes we've observed over occured over a longer period of time.

I think we might well be priced out of SoWalton. We never wanted a trophy home, but now I'm not sure if we could even afford a condo.

[lenzoe]

Good Question. I think you're wanting to know how many were available versus how many sold. Am I right?

Yes, can run the number of units on the market during that period but that won't give us what we need because active listings will be on the market for 69-171 days so active listings during the same time frame will show up sold or expired at a later date. The sold ones were actually active over the previous 69-171 days.

Also, expired listings won't give us that data because some people could list for 2 weeks and some for 3 months. The ones for 2 weeks will show expired 6 times over the 3 months so we'd get duplications of those numbers. Will need to think on that one. If you're looking for percent sold, don't know. Can run the percentage of asking price that they actually sold for. The ballpark average was that DSF's sold for about 5.2% less than asking price.
Yes, that's what I'm wondering -- how many sold vs. available in the same time frame.

I realize the number of active listings wouldn't necessarily match up to the sold pool, it still would be interesting to know the numbers active for each type vs. the same period the prior year, and I would think that would be easier to identify than trying to exactly match things up, as you point out. Just curious.

[kurt]

In terms of water clarity, are the barrier islands any better? What about places such as St George Island, Cape San Blas, Dog Island? (I notice St George allows dogs at the Franklin County beaches.)

The clear water stops around Cape San Blas, any further East and you're dealing with river estuaries and shallow bays. Great for fishing and other wildlife.

[Buckhead Rick]

another question, a number of new projects are using the bay as their "water" view, what is the general feeling as to "value" there at current prices.

[Cork On the Ocean]

Yes, that's what I'm wondering -- how many sold vs. available in the same time frame.

I realize the number of active listings wouldn't necessarily match up to the sold pool, it still would be interesting to know the numbers active for each type vs. the same period the prior year, and I would think that would be easier to identify than trying to exactly match things up, as you point out. Just curious.

Hi Lenzoe,

These are the numbers for properties LISTED during the timeframe not ACTIVE. So within the 3 month timeframe, some of these listings will have been sold, pending, expired by the end of the timeframe sampled but all of them were listed in the period which I think is what you were looking for.

Areas 17 & 18 DSF: Listed 01/01/04-03/28/04
Total # of Listings 210
Lowest Price Listing $99,500
Highest Price Listing $5,300,000
Average Price $866,285
Ave Price/sq ft $422.52

Areas 17 & 18 DSF: Listed 01/01/05-03/28/05
Total # of Listings 293
Lowest Price Listing $300,167
Highest Price Listing $7,999,999
Average Price $1,678,793
Ave Price/sq ft $728.39


Areas 17 & 18 Condos: Listings 01/01/04-03/28/04
Total # of Listings 190
Lowest Price Listing $119,000
Highest Price Listing $3,049,900
Average Price $615,717
Ave Price/sq ft $499.93


Areas 17 & 18 Condos: Listings 01/01/05-03/28/05
Total # of Listings 274
Lowest Price Listing $234,500
Highest Price Listing $4,300,000
Average Price $900,691
Ave Price/sq ft $621.54

Amazingly, 2 of the Andante Penthouses for 4.4Mil went under contract.

Areas 17 & 18 Res Land: Listed 01/01/04-03/28/04
Total # of Listings 316
Lowest Price Listing $44,000
Highest Price Listing $6,300,000
Average Price $555,624

Areas 17 & 18 Res Land: Listed 01/01/05-03/28/05
Total # of Listings 591
Lowest Price Listing $80,000
Highest Price Listing $9,499,000
Average Price $864,347

Looks like DSF are definitely the way to go for appreciation..

I also wanted to run the data on condos in Panama City Beach because my concern is that there's just too much inventory over there. For that reason, among others, I really prefer 30A for investing. You know, decreased supply ---- increased demand. Here's the numbers on PC condos. There's 2 many listings to average price and sq ft price on all of them (system caps reports at 152 listings)

Area 2703 (beach) Condos: Listings 01/01/04-03/28/04
Total # of Listings 436
(Approx twice as many as 30A)
Lowest Price Listing $66,676
Highest Price Listing $610,530


Areas 2703 (beach) Condos: Listings 01/01/05-03/28/05
Total # of Listings 850
(Almost 3 times as many as 30A)
Lowest Price Listing $110,000
Highest Price Listing $1,000,000

:)

[RiverOtter]

Areas 17 & 18 DSF: Listed 01/01/04-03/28/04
Total # of Listings 210
Lowest Price Listing $99,500
Highest Price Listing $5,300,000
Average Price $866,285
Ave Price/sq ft $422.52

Areas 17 & 18 DSF: Listed 01/01/05-03/28/05
Total # of Listings 293
Lowest Price Listing $300,167
Highest Price Listing $7,999,999
Average Price $1,678,793
Ave Price/sq ft $728.39

Looks like DSF are definitely the way to go for appreciation..




:)

What / Where is DSF? :cool:

[lenzoe]

What / Where is DSF? :cool:
I believe that's Detached Single Family. i.e., a house.

[Philip_Atlanta]

is this data coming from MLS or is there a way for us to get at this data?

also - as mentioned above - is 17/18 30a? do you have data on Miramar Beach/Sandestin area?


thanks!

[Cork On the Ocean]

Hi,

Yes, DSF is detached single family homes as opposed to attached townhomes or condos and they appear to have shown the highest appreciation this past year.

The data is from the MLS and not available to the public. I have an opt-in monthly sale on my website and send out monthly sales data to clients that have signed up for it.

Areas 17 & 18 are 30A. Area 17 is basically west of Watercolor and area 18 is the east side of 30A. Yes, can retrieve sales trends for Miramar. Just let me know what you need.

Take care,

Debbie Orr

[FoX]

another question, a number of new projects are using the bay as their "water" view, what is the general feeling as to "value" there at current prices.

I'm not sure which developments you refer to or what prices. Can you be more specific?

[ecopal]

I have a question about the real estate market.
Aren't there an unusual number of properties on the market on 30A?
Are sales/demand keeping up with the supply?

[GVM]

From all I hear, there continues to be a strong demand for property along 30-A, with one caveat: A property must be market priced. There are numerous examples of over priced listings out there, and they're not selling. The properties which are priced according to the market are selling. www.destinproperties.com is a good site for keeping up with what's on the market.

[Smiling JOe]

From all I hear, there continues to be a strong demand for property along 30-A, with one caveat: A property must be market priced. There are numerous examples of over priced listings out there, and they're not selling. The properties which are priced according to the market are selling. www.destinproperties.com is a good site for keeping up with what's on the market.

It may be okay, but it doesn't have all the current listings.

[beachmouse]

My favorite real estate site is http://www.emeraldcoasthomesonline.com/ What appears to be thorough MLS coverage, and they have way more pictures than realtor.com does.

[kurt]

My favorite real estate site is http://www.emeraldcoasthomesonline.com/ What appears to be thorough MLS coverage, and they have way more pictures than realtor.com does.

That is the site by the local association of Realtors - it is always up to date.

[Scooter]

Thanks, Kurt for all the info on the Port St. Joe area. Was in Mexico Beach about 10 yrs. ago and thought the water was murky. Didn't know why but now I understand. I'm going to stick with SoWal. :clap_1:

[kurt]

Thanks, Kurt for all the info on the Port St. Joe area. Was in Mexico Beach about 10 yrs. ago and thought the water was murky. Didn't know why but now I understand. I'm going to stick with SoWal. :clap_1:

You're welcome. Great fishing over there.

[ecopal]

Regarding the real estate market:

Yes I beleive there is a real estate bubble in many parts of the country but if you are lucky enough to own property within walking distance of the Gulf on 30A don't worry.

The wealthiest want to buy here and not only are they are getting richer everyday but there is a tsumani of them nearing retirement. Of all the areas on the "hot list" for special desirable areas 30A is still cheaply priced relative to the alternatives.
The beach isn't spoiled by crowds, crime, and rows of high rises. Also, 30A is one of the few areas that has the best beaches and highest elevation. You can actually live in strolling disance of the beach and not have to buy flood insurance! Residents from low elevation hurricane stricken areas are coming here. Hurrricanes just make this area more in demand.

With the shakey stock market, money is likely to be diverted to a prime real estate area like this. In addition, with the new international airport planned on Hwy 79 it will bring in even more money from the North East as well as international buyers who up till now have concentrated on southern Florida. Just think what a Euro would buy here!
FYI: I am not a real estate agent or developer.

[RiverOtter]

Regarding the real estate market:


FYI: I am not a real estate agent or developer.

:biggrin: Love the disclaimer

[beachmouse]

I did Gulf Coast Triathlon today, and got the Tour de PCB construction sites on parts of the bike and run courses. Hearing about all the new construction going in there is one thing; seeing it is another. It's amazing how much is already going up, and how many more presales are going on.

And how the area is still going to take years to build an upscale infrastructure once you get outside the condo properties proper. Only a handful of good restaurants, still too many head shops.

[beachmouse]

BRAC list is out, and Eglin AFB is supposed to get a 2200 net gain in personnel. Ft. Walton Beach is built out, and it'll be a couple more years until the Ruckels get their big planned north Niceville DRI going. (right now, there's not much buildable land in play there either) So those people are going to be looking further out for housing. Crestview/Mossy Head will get some, but I suspect many others will be looking along the FL 20 corridor between Bluewater Bay and Freeport. It's not a bad commute from that area since they four laned 20 as far as White Point Road.

So I see western Freeport, Choctaw Beach, Villa Tasso, Basin Bayou, and Portland properties getting something of a bump out of it. How much depends on the personnel breakdown, (officers, enlisted, white collar tech) which I haven't seen yet.

[beachmouse]

Florida Association of Realtors numbers on existing single family home sales are out for April. Interesting reading, even if SoWal is too small of an area for them to cover. (they only list MSAs, not rural areas)

http://media.living.net/releases/april05sales.htm

"ORLANDO, Fla., May 24, 2005 -- Different month, same story for sales of existing single-family homes in Florida in April: high demand, still-low mortgage rates and a short supply of homes available for sale, bringing the statewide median sales price to $218,600 -- a 26 percent increase over the April 2004 figure, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR).

In 2000, the statewide median sales price was $115,900, which represents a dramatic 88.6 percent increase over the five-year-period, according to FAR records. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half sold for less. "


For Fort Walton Beach MSA, number of sales fell slightly and median sales price increased 37% from $185K in April of 2004 to $253K in April of 2005.

For Panama City MSA, number of sales increased slightly and median sales price increased 27% from $158K in April of 2004 to $200K in April of 2005.

[Cork On the Ocean]

Since this thread still appears to be active will post some new data on watercolor and the market. Also, have done a redesign on my site that categorizes listings from the MLS in gulffront, view, condos, various communities etc. Left hand links pull the data as well as individual pages on locations and communities which have applicable listings. Start here:

www.uniquepanhandleproperties.com

I wrote an article a couple of months ago outlining future growth indicators for the Florida Panhandle and it's Real Estate Market. It has quite a bit about JOE in it. It's located at:

http://www.uniquepanhandlepropertie...investments.htm

Also, did some numbers on watercolor for a client: Looks like lots appreciated at about 57.75% while homes only appreciated at 19.8%. Of course lots of variables but gives us an idea of trends and demand. Sorry if the colums are running into each other but couldnt copy tables. Can email if you'd like.


Watercolor Lot Sales from Pendings in each month

# Pending Low High Ave Price
5/01/04-5/31/04 20 $375,000 $895,000 $545,900
6/01/04-6/30/04 17 $365,000 $1,730,000 $605,412
7/01/04-7/31/04 32 $495,000 $2,500,000 $719,125
8/01/04-8/31/04 22 $580,000 $1,700,000 $717,432
9/01/04-9/30/04 4 $585,000 $1,425,000 $810,000
10/01/04-10/31/04 10 $598,000 $975,000 $732,550
11/01/04-11/30/04 2 $750,000 $750,000 $750,000
12/01/04-12/31/04 1 $815,000 $815,000 $815,000
01/01/05-01/31/05 5 $618,000 $820,000 $762,600
02/01/05-02/28/05 10 $615,000 $832,500 $707,750
03/01/05-03/31/05 14 $635,000 $1,550,000 $858,929
04/01/05-04/30/05 15 $585,000 $1,500,000 $835,000
05/01/05-05/29/05 11 $663,000 $1,200,000 $861,182

Active lots in Watercolor
72 $615,000 $2,650,000 $991,860


Watercolor Home Sales from Pendings in each month

#Pending Low High Ave Price/ft2
5/01/04-5/31/04 8 $849,000 $2,695,000 $568.25
6/01/04-6/30/04 5 $925,000 $1,900,000 $505.78
7/01/04-7/31/04 6 $1,225,000 $2,100,000 $594.94
8/01/04-8/31/04 4 $1,350,000 $2,250,000 $783.87
9/01/04-9/30/04 5 $1,225,000 $2,650,000 $667.50
10/01/04-10/31/04 3 $1,400,000 $1,500,000 $683.53
11/01/04-11/30/04 1 $1,390,000 $1,390,000 $581.59
12/01/04-012/31/04 0
01/01/05-01/31/05 6 $1,250,000 $3,600,000 $744.70
02/01/05-02/28/05 2 $1,350,000 $1,490,000 $658.31
03/01/05-03/31/05 5 $1,440,000 $1,895,000 $724.61
04/01/05-04/31/05 5 $1,595,000 $2,395,000 $782.79
05/01/05-05/22/05 1 $1,995,000 $1,995,000 $680.88

Active homes in Watercolor
39 $1,675,000 $4,200,000 $945.33