Hurricane Gustav

[PC]

This thing could become a monster, lets pray it does not!!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1039&tstamp=200808

[seagrovegirl]

Uh oh...............

[PC]

Thats what I said, especially since we will be there in two weeks. Sowal that is.....

[Smiling JOe]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200894_model.gif

[greenroomsurfer]

9884

[SHELLY]

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/storms/gustav_track.html

[scooterbug44]

Hello Gustav!

Winds are up to 60 mph already!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/181113.shtml?5day?large#contents
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/181113.shtml?5day#contents)

[aleonard]

Hello Gustav!

Winds are up to 60 mph already!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/181113.shtml?5day?large#contents
(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/181113.shtml?5day#contents)


Why does this name make me think of Ivan:blink:

[scooterbug44]

'Cause it sounds Russian? :idontno:

[aleonard]

'Cause it sounds Russian? :idontno:

Yes............I no like Russian sounding hurricanes:blink:

[sunspotbaby]

Yes............I no like Russian sounding hurricanes:blink:

Same here, I may be driving North next week. :roll:

[scooterbug44]

On the plus side, it won't mess up the SWGB wedding (since they rescheduled) and the uncles haven't seen me in a while! Evacucation time! ;-)

[NotDeadYet]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqpbl7aWkkWM&refer=home :eek:

[MissCritter]

Why does this name make me think of Ivan:blink:

'Cause it sounds Russian? :idontno:

Also sounds like a certain "K" name I won't mention. To paraphrase Harry Potter "She Who Must Not Be Named." :shock:

[klauricella]

I'd have to say this one makes me a little nervous :confused:

[greenroomsurfer]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/update/index.html?from=hp_news

[Johnrudy]

greenroom, if you are like every surfer I've ever known, you sort of look forward to these storms for the waves. (of course, providing no damage to life and property.)
.

[greenroomsurfer]

Of course!!! I also have mad carpentry skills!:biggrin:

[Johnrudy]

have fun!

[drivingtheview]

Lots of friends coming in for Labor Day Weekend. I've got a really bad feeling in my gut about Gustav. The predictive map projections are ominous. Hope I'm completely wrong.

[Beachbummett]

http://i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee295/peteyzgal/Gustav.gif

[Beachbummett]

http://i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee295/peteyzgal/at200807_model.gif

[sowalgayboi]

Of course!!! I also have mad carpentry skills!:biggrin:

Kind of like the tire repair shop that throws tacks on the road? :biggrin:

[NotDeadYet]

This morning's track pushes it further south and west and into the Gulf through the Yucatan channel. Looks like the oil and gas industry got their money's worth with that forecast I posted yesterday. Their hired weatherman was right on, a major hurricane in the Gulf. :eek:

[Beachbummett]

http://i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee295/peteyzgal/at200807_model-1.gif

:blink:

:shock:

http://i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee295/peteyzgal/at200807_5day.gif

[jdarg]

I think I am going to make a reservation- how does Jax sound? I'm thinking head east.

[scooterbug44]

Looks like I'll be partying in Savannah next week! :blink:

[TooFarTampa]

Well effing eff eff! :angry:

[MissCritter]

Well effing eff eff! :angry:

I share your technically accurate assessment. :lolabove:

[seagrover]

I'm not going to look at the Weather Channel, not going to look at any forcast - I'm doing NOTHING!!!

I'm so worn out over the last NON-storm, I'm not over that one yet!!!

They even tricked me with Jim Cantori in PCB - BAD Weather Channel - BAD!!!!!

[Beachbummett]

Well effing eff eff! :angry:

Exactly what I thought!

I'm not going to look at the Weather Channel, not going to look at any forcast - I'm doing NOTHING!!!

I'm so worn out over the last NON-storm, I'm not over that one yet!!!

They even tricked me with Jim Cantori in PCB - BAD Weather Channel - BAD!!!!!

This is what worries me and pisse$ me off about the weather channel. They hype EVERYTHING so much and make such a big deal out of everything that people will stop watching when they really should have. You stay safe sparklegrover, where else could I have pinks on such a nice porch?

[seagrover]

And BB, that may be part of the problem from last time, too - I didn't have a single drop of any PInk liquid or any kind of liquid!!!

I will change that from now on - think I will have one for breakfast!!! Come on over!!! :drink2:

[Paige]

I sure don't want Gustav to hit SoWal, but 1 model has New Orleans as a direct hit with a Cat 3 or higher. That would not be good.

[TooFarTampa]

I sure don't want Gustav to hit SoWal, but 1 model has New Orleans as a direct hit with a Cat 3 or higher. That would not be good.

Couldn't help but notice that too. :yikes:

[cinlo]

We're driving down on Sept. 5th for a week in Panama City Beach. Who has a guess that we're in the clear from Gustav?? We have our fingers crossed..:idontno:

[seagrovegirl]

If it continues straight ahead, we will meet Gustav, but chances of that are very slim because hurricanes rarely go in a straight line.. It's going to hit on the Gulf Coast somewhere.......who knows....it's at least 10 days away from us.

[aleonard]

Well effing eff eff! :angry:

I'm not going to look at the Weather Channel, not going to look at any forcast - I'm doing NOTHING!!!

I'm so worn out over the last NON-storm, I'm not over that one yet!!!

They even tricked me with Jim Cantori in PCB - BAD Weather Channel - BAD!!!!!

TFT.....you are special :biggrin::wave:

SG.I hate the music. Makes my heart race just to hear it:angry:

[greenroomsurfer]

The title has changed because it is now a Hurricane!!!

[beachmouse]

Models are kind of murky right now on the long term path of Gustav once it clears Cuba. There are about 3-4 different weather events in play that will impact the ultimate path of the storm.

Keep checking the National Hurricane Center web site and we'll hopefully have a better idea of how the ridge that would keep Gustav to the South is going to set up or not set up by about late Thursday.

[seagrovegirl]

:yikes:

[seagrovegirl]

:yikes:

Heading for New Orleans................

[scooterbug44]

Since Katrina was supposed to make landfall in Seagrove, I am not convinced we're in the clear yet.

IMO it's going to curve and whomp us!

[bluemtnrunner]

At least we have the possiblity of real drama from hurricanes to rescue us from the contrived drama of our daily lives. What will we do with ourselves after hurricane season?

[sunspotbaby]

Since Katrina was supposed to make landfall in Seagrove, I am not convinced we're in the clear yet.

IMO it's going to curve and whomp us!


Mr. Sunspot always likes to make his predictions:

! Pack a bag ! :roll:

[TreeFrog]

The current model runs show it moving faster after Friday. Looks to me like landfall would be early morning hours next Tuesday. Too early to say where.

[scooterbug44]

I've been gardening and cleaning the house - that's like an engraved invitation to a hurricane, which is why I'm convinced it's coming here! :bang:

[SHELLY]

I've been gardening and cleaning the house - that's like an engraved invitation to a hurricane, which is why I'm convinced it's coming here! :bang:

...my freezer is packed with steak, shrimp and fish--that means, "run for the hills!"

.

[ronfrazer]

Because Gustav is weak and disorganized, and because there are many weather systems in the area that could push it around, my guess is that it'll wander quite a bit. I wouldn't change my plans. What the heck, a category 2 hurricane will give you some fun stories for the folks back home!

[aleonard]

At least we have the possiblity of real drama from hurricanes to rescue us from the contrived drama of our daily lives. What will we do with ourselves after hurricane season?


Pray our house insurance isn't canceled.:biggrin:

[NotDeadYet]

Weak and disorganized? :confused:
I don't think so.

"Gustav intensified from a tropical depression at 11 am yesterday to a Category 1 hurricane last night in just 16 hours, tying Hurricane Humberto's record--set just last year--for the fastest intensification from first advisory to a Category 1 hurricane.." Weather Underground/Tropical Jeff Masters
"

[Miss Kitty]

Pray our house insurance isn't cancelled.:biggrin:

Aleo...you always get to the meat of the story! :clap:

[inside635]

I sure don't want Gustav to hit SoWal, but 1 model has New Orleans as a direct hit with a Cat 3 or higher. That would not be good.

Not sure how N.O. can survive if they are smacked head on so soon after Katrina.

[sowalgayboi]

Because Gustav is weak and disorganized, and because there are many weather systems in the area that could push it around, my guess is that it'll wander quite a bit. I wouldn't change my plans. What the heck, a category 2 hurricane will give you some fun stories for the folks back home!

A vacation renter won't experience anything over a Tropical Storm. Florida State law requires a renter (short term only) to vacate by law. In fact if they refuse technically the rental company is supposed to call the Sheriff's department to have them removed. For a renting vacationer to stay in anything over a Tropical Storm is just insanity anyway.

[sowalgayboi]

I'm assuming the threads got merged, because my head hurts from trying to figure out what just happened. Kurt did a tornado hit the weather thread?

[BrownEyedGull]

We're coming down tomorrow night thru labor day. How's it looking until then?:idontno:
.

[scooterbug44]

I think you'll be okay for a fun weekend based on the current tracks & timeline, but depending on what happens in the next couple days you might choose to return home a little earlier. :wave:

Just remember that a storm will kick up the waves so be careful about checking conditions at the beach.

[BeachSiO2]

I agree with SB above. From a weather perspective, it looks like you would be fine through Monday. From a beach perspective the waters could be rough on Sunday and Monday depending on where Gustav goes.

[momof2kids]

Just drove by the beach a few minutes ago in Miramar Beach area and there are double red flags posted. I expect that those will continue to fly for a while...

[drsvelte]

2:00pm models.

http://i326.photobucket.com/albums/k432/drsvelte/200pm.jpg

:eek:

[Camp Creek Kid]

...my freezer is packed with steak, shrimp and fish--that means, "run for the hills!"

.

We have 200 pounds of frozen, but freshly caught, Alaskan Salmon and Halibut from a recent fishing expedition. As I was putting it in the freezer, I was making mental plans of how to take it with us during an evacuation . . .

[MissCritter]

I've been gardening and cleaning the house - that's like an engraved invitation to a hurricane, which is why I'm convinced it's coming here! :bang:

For God's sake, STOP!! :lol:

...my freezer is packed with steak, shrimp and fish--that means, "run for the hills!"

.

Eat the d*mn food, and save us all. Many of us will sacrifce ourselves for the cause. What time should we be there? I'll bring wine. :biggrin:

[scooterbug44]

Pack it in a cooler, cover it with less important frozen stuff, then bury it in the interior of the car ................... then bribe people w/ fish to let you put it in a freezer!

[Beachbummett]

http://i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee295/peteyzgal/at200807_5day-1.gif


ho-boy :blink:


http://i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee295/peteyzgal/at200807_model-2.gif

[sowalgayboi]

We have made tentative reservations at Casa de Sister in Tallahassee just in case.

[ameliaj]

Saw the storm track on Sowal.
Lord, this don't look good at all!

[rapunzel]

Okay. I'm officially having a Y'at attack right now.

We're supposed to be moving next week. It's gonna come here.

[Minnie]

I did not like the looks of this one when it was forming.

[scooterbug44]

We have made tentative reservations at Casa de Sister in Tallahassee just in case.

Ditto - just emailed Hotel Uncles! :roll:

Poor Punzy - she wasn't happy about moving again BEFORE Gustav!

[AuntJulz]

Great...trying to decide what to do about vacation... Supposed to arrive Sat and come home the next weekend. Any thoughts on if we should come Friday and just see how it goes or should we totally postpone?

[jdarg]

Great...trying to decide what to do about vacation... Supposed to arrive Sat and come home the next weekend. Any thoughts on if we should come Friday and just see how it goes or should we totally postpone?

We won't know for sure for a few days- just monitor Weather Underground like we are! If you read that we are packing up and hoping our homes will be here when we return, you might want to rethink your vacation. If there is a mandatory evacuation, you are either not coming or going home anyway.

[AuntJulz]

Haha...yeah, we're keeping an eye on weather underground as well as noaa.gov

Just don't want double red flags/rain/etc for our vacation...but who does?

[jodiFL]

D*m*...I think I remember the NOGAPS one being the most accurate one (well at least the CLOSEST to accurate) and it is coming right at us.....

[Minnie]

well Gustav made oil go up by a dollar a barrel. :bang:

The discussion on Bloomberg was definitely upsetting. I hope they are very wrong. :blink:

[jdarg]

Haha...yeah, we're keeping an eye on weather underground as well as noaa.gov

Just don't want double red flags/rain/etc for our vacation...but who does?

I hear ya. We don't want a Cat 3 or worse hurricane - so believe me, we are watching. Double red flags/rain would suck for your vacation, but would be a relief to us at this point!

[AuntJulz]

That's true. I spend at least 40 days per year down there and have had NO rain or bad weather in 3 years, so I consider myself lucky. In fact, we had a week of mosty green flags. Hey, a vacation is a vacation whether or not it's perfect...!

[BeachSiO2]

The website I follow has the storm continuing west toward Texas and not toward Sowal as of 4 EST. We'll see if they change in the morning.

[TreeFrog]

D*m*...I think I remember the NOGAPS one being the most accurate one (well at least the CLOSEST to accurate) and it is coming right at us.....

NOGAPS was the outlier for much of the TS Fay forecasting period. It consistently disagreed with the consensus, and the consensus pretty much turned out to be the track.

Jeff Masters' blog a couple of days ago had an analysis of which models performed best for Fay and the winner was GFDL. And he now says the similarities in Fay and Gustav are leading him to lend a little more weight to GFDL for Gustav, too.

[TreeFrog]

well Gustav made oil go up by a dollar a barrel. :bang:

The discussion on Bloomberg was definitely upsetting. I hope they are very wrong. :blink:

The current track runs straight at the Lousiana oil patch. Go fill your car before we go up again.

[30ashopper]

This'll change landfall locations a thousand time between now and the weekend. I'd say if you're planning on coming down or maybe leaving just chill and keep an eye on things until then.

[NoHall]

I can't remember ever saying that I was glad I didn't make plans to be in SoWal, but now I'm thinking it's a good thing I have to work on Labor Day.

C'mon up here and ride it out with me. Bring a kayak--maybe the lake will be up enough by then that we can have some funn. :wave:

Last I heard, Fay was bringing us mudslides. :idontno: If Gustav brings as much craziness as Fay, I might move to the military school for a while--it's supposedly the highest spot in town.

[greenroomsurfer]

I can't remember ever saying that I was glad I didn't make plans to be in SoWal, but now I'm thinking it's a good thing I have to work on Labor Day.

C'mon up here and ride it out with me. Bring a kayak--maybe the lake will be up enough by then that we can have some funn. :wave:

Last I heard, Fay was bringing us mudslides. :idontno: If Gustav brings as much craziness as Fay, I might move to the military school for a while--it's supposedly the highest spot in town.
DEAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But ya have to take all the girls to.:wub::wub::wub:

[NoHall]

DEAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But ya have to take all the girls to.:wub::wub::wub:

Bring 'em on. My parents are skipping town for a week or ten days, so we'll just take over their house. :wave:

[Smiling JOe]

D*m*...I think I remember the NOGAPS one being the most accurate one (well at least the CLOSEST to accurate) and it is coming right at us.....

NOGAPS was the outlier for much of the TS Fay forecasting period. It consistently disagreed with the consensus, and the consensus pretty much turned out to be the track.

Jeff Masters' blog a couple of days ago had an analysis of which models performed best for Fay and the winner was GFDL. And he now says the similarities in Fay and Gustav are leading him to lend a little more weight to GFDL for Gustav, too.
Dr Master's blog also mentioned that NOGAPS, typically the most accurate, was the least accurate for the last storm (already forgot the name), and noted that since Gustav is much like the last storm in many ways (technical meteorological stuff), NOGAPS wouldn't likely be accurate for Gustav, either.

[jodiFL]

Dr Master's blog also mentioned that NOGAPS, typically the most accurate, was the least accurate for the last storm (already forgot the name), and noted that since Gustav is much like the last storm in many ways (technical meteorological stuff), NOGAPS wouldn't likely be accurate for Gustav, either.

Well.....I dont really like that one either but at least it wouldnt put us on the east side of Gustav.

[Smiling JOe]

JeffMasters (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), 4:15 PM EDT on August 26, 2008
www.weatherunderground.com (http://www.weatherunderground.com)
(full blog (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1043&tstamp=200808))

The track forecast for Gustav
The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html#a_topad) continue to be in good agreement on the 1-3 day track of Gustav, and we can be confident that Gustav will turn west and pass south of Cuba after leaving Haiti. The trough of low pressure currently exiting the U.S. East Coast and pulling Gustav northwest is expected to move off to the east, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force Gustav due west or slightly south of due west. After three days, there is more divergence in the models. The NOGAPS model no longer foresees landfall on Mexico's Yucatan, and now takes Gustav to a final landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The ECMWF is now the only model predicting a landfall in the Yucatan. This model predicts a second landfall in Texas. The GFDL is a little slower than its previous run, but still forecasts a Category 3/4 hurricane hitting Louisiana on Sunday evening. The UKMET prefers a Texas landfall. The GFS is not much help--it dissipates Gustav.

The final landfall location of Gustav depends on the strength and speed of a trough of low pressure forecast to move across the Midwest U.S. late this week. At present, there is no way to guess which location in the Gulf of Mexico is the most likely. Keep in mind that the cone of uncertainty is correct only about 2/3 of the time--1/3 of the time, we can expect the storm's position to be in error by more than what the cone of uncertainty suggests....

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_5day.gif


Gustav's intensification potential in the Gulf of Mexico
As we saw in 2005 with Katrina and Rita, the large amounts of deep, warm water brought into the Gulf of Mexico by the Loop Current can help intensify hurricanes to Category 5 intensity. As explained in my Loop Current (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/loopcurrent.asp) tutorial, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward through the Florida Keys. The Loop Current commonly bulges out in the northern Gulf of Mexico and sometimes will shed a clockwise rotating ring of warm water that separates from the main current. This ring of warm water slowly drifts west-southwestward towards Texas or Mexico at about 3-5 km per day. This feature is called a "Loop Current Ring", "Loop Current Eddy", or "Warm Core Ring", and can provide a key source of energy to fuel rapid intensification of hurricanes that cross the Gulf. The Loop Current itself can also fuel rapid intensification, such as happened with Hurricane Charley in 2004. When a Loop Current Eddy breaks off in the Gulf of Mexico at the height of hurricane season, it can lead to a dangerous situation where a vast reservoir of energy is available to any hurricane that might cross over. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and "bombed" into a Category 5 hurricane. The eddy remained in the Gulf and slowly drifted westward during September. Hurricane Rita passed over the same Loop Current Eddy three weeks after Katrina, and also explosively deepened to a Category 5 storm....

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the computer models forecast the development of two more tropical waves between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the coming week, and it is possible we will have three or four simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic a week from now (Figure 3).

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2008/parade_aug26.png

[Cheering472]

Yikes! :eek:

[Franny]

We have a high pressure that should prevent the storm from coming to Florida. Cross fingers, toes...Now we have to worry about our Texas friends.

[BeachSiO2]

Hot off the presses, it looks Louisiana late Monday/early Tuesday as of now with NOLA on the east side of the storm.

Edit, this is west of the official NHC track.

[NatiBeachLuvr]

We have a high pressure that should prevent the storm from coming to Florida. Cross fingers, toes...Now we have to worry about our Texas friends.

Hi Franny, I like you! keep the good news coming. I sure hope it does not head for Florida or Texas!! I need a vacation bad!

[Franny]

Hi Franny, I like you! keep the good news coming. I sure hope it does not head for Florida or Texas!! I need a vacation bad!

:biggrin::wave:

[daytripper]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_5day.gif

[daytripper]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5_sm2+gif/143014W_sm.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143014.shtml?5day?large#contents)

[beachmouse]

No likey. Whenever the models say LA this far out, it always seems to start recurving sooner than first thought and getting far too close to us.

[DuneLaker]

I don't like to see any storm in West Florida, whose western border historically reached to the Mississippi River.

[ckhagen]

I'm not liking this at all :(
We need Labor Day weekend too badly. Starting the off-season with a hurricane is never good for our household.

[scooterbug44]

I'm thinking even if we avoid a direct hit by Gustav, he will take a major chunk out of Labor Day weekend $. :(

The cancellation rates I was hearing about for Fay were quite high!

[BrownEyedGull]

We're not cancelling!!!! Leaving Atlanta in about 2 hours!!!
.

[PC]

Totally out of our control. All we can do is pray this thing away.

Have a good vacation, were coming down the 5th of Sept.

[destinscuba]

After searching I finally found the evacuation map for Walton County (Okaloosa & Santa Rosa Counties are also included)

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/attachments/k5z4nv-combined.pdf

[DuneLaker]

Thanks, DSTSB Could you add Bay County, too?

[Franny]

We're not cancelling!!!! Leaving Atlanta in about 2 hours!!!
.

Come to Sowal and avoid the Atlanta tornado's!!;-)

[sowalgayboi]

I'm not sweating it now until it makes it to the Gulf. That day seems to keep getting pushed back.

[ameliaj]

It's moving way slow. I think we'll know a lot more as soon as it passes Cuba and hits the open gulf.

[Arkiehawg]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2008082712

Let's hope that NOGAPS has it wrong! Check the last frame (17) on 09/01/08

[scooterbug44]

On what track? :idontno:

All along I've been assuming Sunday is evac day for Casa Scooterbug.

[incredible1]

We have added tracking at http://30atelevision.com/weather.php

[Tootsie]

Come to Sowal and avoid the Atlanta tornado's!!;-)

:Disn't it the darn truth?
I hope to stay right-chere.

I'm not sweating it now until it makes it to the Gulf. That day seems to keep getting pushed back.
true swgb - ain't no reason to sweat yet.

[sowalgayboi]

:Disn't it the darn truth?
I hope to stay right-chere.


true swgb - ain't no reason to sweat yet.

Has the high pressure affected your southern gland?

[Minnie]

The thing about Hurricanes is there is No good place to wish they would go, except to send them to He!!.

[jdarg]

I hope to stay here too, but not making plans for this large brood of mine would be completely stupid! I have hotel reservations now in nice places that I can cancel if we don't have to evacuate, and now I can watch, wait, and enjoy the rest of this week!

[destinscuba]

Thanks, DSTSB Could you add Bay County, too?

here you go,
http://www.pcbaygis.com/Gallery/Hurricane_Prep.html

[Cheering472]

I hope to stay here too, but not making plans for this large brood of mine would be completely stupid! I have hotel reservations now in nice places that I can cancel if we don't have to evacuate, and now I can watch, wait, and enjoy the rest of this week!

Sounds smart to me.:wave:

[scooterbug44]

Anywhere close and a Cat 1 or above and you'll be seeing the taillights of the scootermobile! :leaving:

Worst case scenario if I evacuate: I spend less than $100 on gas and have a nice visit w/ my relatives.

Worst case scenario if I stay: ranges from a miserable couple of days to major physical damage to myself and my possessions.

[seagrovegirl]

At a Cat 1...I am scared...call me chicken, call me what you want....but I am heading north. You see, been there done that and I am NOT doing it again. I'll head to my place in Paxton or head to hubby's place on Lookout Mountain (North of Gadsden). Hubby and the kids are heading out Friday afternoon for the holiday weekend and I am staying since I am going to NC on the 9th. But if Gustav is heading anywhere near here....I'm North with the puppy herd.

[Johnrudy]

Even way up here in IL I'm glued to the updates and models and thinking about all of you and praying for the best.

My brother and his family live just west of Mobile so I'm keeping in touch with them as well. After Katrina, it took over a week to finally get in touch with him because of power outages.

This next 3 - 4 days are gonna be very long and stressful for all of you!:(
.

[BeachSiO2]

The guesstimates keep moving east. As of 4pm, I am seeing Monday afternoon/evening landfall on NOLA. Since Katrina made landfall August 29, 2005, this would be just 3 days after the 3 year anniversary and it is another Russian name. The Weather Channel is going to have a field day over the next few days on this one.

[Just_In_Thyme]

Gustav is of Swedish origin, not Russian. In the grand scheme of things I guess it doesn't matter if it hits NOLA again.

[BeachSiO2]

Gustav is of Swedish origin, not Russian. In the grand scheme of things I guess it doesn't matter if it hits NOLA again.

Thanks for the correction. :blush:

[MissCritter]

Gustav is of Swedish origin, not Russian. In the grand scheme of things I guess it doesn't matter if it hits NOLA again.

No one wants that kind of Swedish massage! :biggrin:

[aleonard]

Gustav is of Swedish origin, not Russian. In the grand scheme of things I guess it doesn't matter if it hits NOLA again.

Thanks for the correction. :blush:

Sounds close enough:biggrin::wave:

[AuntJulz]

Yeah...I'm hoping (and praying) that it the models will change once again....They will probably change 10 more times in the next 3 days. Yesterday it looked decent, today...not so much. I don't even think we can cancel at this point!

[Just_In_Thyme]

I have several Russian friends who are very sensitive. I am just trying to look out for them.

[BlueMtnBeachVagrant]

The thing about Hurricanes is there is No good place to wish they would go, except to send them to He!!.
Now now Minnie,
Hurricanes have a right to be here just like rattle snakes, coyotes and scorpions. :wave:

[ohmom]

local news in Cincy tonight showed our local Red Cross emergency response vehicle packing up...they are heading to Montgomery to wait...my fondest hope is they will not be needed...stay safe everyone, prayers for all

[aleonard]

I have several Russian friends who are very sensitive. I am just trying to look out for them.

Thanks:D:wave:

[bluemtnfriend]

This thing could become a monster, lets pray it does not!!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1039&tstamp=200808

Just a quick question, what category was Ivan? We got wind driven rain damage with Ivan and I, worried.

[BeachSiO2]

I have several Russian friends who are very sensitive. I am just trying to look out for them.


I don't have any russian friends, but I went to a wedding in Sweden so I can't say anything bad about them either. :biggrin:

[drsvelte]

Just a quick question, what category was Ivan? We got wind driven rain damage with Ivan and I, worried

Ivan was a Cat 3 hurricane when it hit Gulf Shores.

[Chickpea]

Maybe a silly question but how far does one need to go to off the coast to get to safety?

[Johnrudy]

Maybe a silly question but how far does one need to go to off the coast to get to safety?

Not a silly question at all.

Growing up in Andalusia (approx. 65 - 70 miles from coast), we felt the effects of hurricanes and tropical storms all the time. Major wind damage, trees uprooted; terrifying at times. All the motels were full with evacuees.

Depending on the storm category, I would at least travel that distance or further north, based on my experience.

:wave:

[Minnie]

Now now Minnie,
Hurricanes have a right to be here just like rattle snakes, coyotes and scorpions. :wave:

Well at least with the varments you have some idea of where they are going. I meant with Hurricanes no one wants the thing to come visit, so you end up wishing bad luck on someone else. :blink:

[MissCritter]

I don't have any russian friends, but I went to a wedding in Sweden so I can't say anything bad about them either. :biggrin:

I do like their meatballs.

Not a silly question at all.

Growing up in Andalusia (approx. 65 - 70 miles from coast), we felt the effects of hurricanes and tropical storms all the time. Major wind damage, trees uprooted; terrifying at times. All the motels were full with evacuees.

Depending on the storm category, I would at least travel that distance or further north, based on my experience.

:wave:

You should also consider whether to go northeast or northwest. Obviously, you want to go in the opposite direction the storm is headed. The forecast models will indicate the expected turn. Depending on how long you wait to make hotel reservations (if that is your plan), you may end up going further than you planned due to lack of vacancy.

[BeachSiO2]

Maybe a silly question but how far does one need to go to off the coast to get to safety?

It depends on the size, strength, and most importantly, the forward speed of the storm. I would take my chances going east or west as there are tornadoes in the inland areas that are more risky IMO.

[DuneLaker]

With Hurricane Ivan, there was really bad flooding around Asheville, North Carolina. Sometimes tornadoes and inland flooding are far more dangerous than the coast. Atlanta can get clobbered. As long as you are out of the surge zone, and have wind protection, it is sometimes IMO just as safe on the coast. We evacuated once up to DeFuniak and I thought we were going to get killed by the huge pine trees toppling over. At least at the beach, our scrub oaks hold their ground and don't crush anything. We stayed for most. The most danger we've been in is when we left to Dallas for Dennis. It was very dangerous returning along 20, but horrible along I-10.

[NoHall]

Come to Sowal and avoid the Atlanta tornado's!!;-)

I actually have to TEACH on Labor day...:blink: But I'll be down in the Bat Cave (aka the music suite.) If any of you want to come be a guest speaker, you'll be safe from Gustav and tornadoes! :biggrin: (I can promise you no protection from hostile students.)

[Beachmom]

ok, say you are going to evacuate....besides what you need for a few days- what do you take?? (besides the obvious...I have boxes upon boxes of photos!)

[Beachbummett]

ok, say you are going to evacuate....besides what you need for a few days- what do you take?? (besides the obvious...I have boxes upon boxes of photos!)

Be sure and take your important papers with you, insurance papers with phone numbers of contact person, paperwork to get you back in SoWal. Oh...plenty of wine might help too! :biggrin:

[mikecatadjuster]

I was heading southwest of New Orleans for the weekend and upcoming week but may stick around for the Grafitti thingie in Alys beach. I have a class in the New Orleans area the 4th - 6th and wanted to go early to visit with the kiddies. Now I find out my ex might be taking them out of town.

I guess I'll kinda wait to see how things go. Btw, I sure hope LSU kicks the heck out of APP st. on Saturday and their is no problem with the weather in Baton Rouge. Be safe everyone.

[Beachmom]

Don't worry, I do have my priorities in order!!!

Important papers are ready to go...I've organized and re-organized!!

[sowalgayboi]

With Hurricane Ivan, there was really bad flooding around Asheville, North Carolina. Sometimes tornadoes and inland flooding are far more dangerous than the coast. Atlanta can get clobbered. As long as you are out of the surge zone, and have wind protection, it is sometimes IMO just as safe on the coast. We evacuated once up to DeFuniak and I thought we were going to get killed by the huge pine trees toppling over. At least at the beach, our scrub oaks hold their ground and don't crush anything. We stayed for most. The most danger we've been in is when we left to Dallas for Dennis. It was very dangerous returning along 20, but horrible along I-10.

I think the whole thing of ATL getting clobbered is just more Weather Channel crapola. We evacuated there for Dennis and a friend to call and make sure we were okay since he heard on the weather channel that downtown was flooding. We just let him know that the little creek that apparently is slightly north of downtown was having some issues, but everything else was fine. Including the underground.

ok, say you are going to evacuate....besides what you need for a few days- what do you take?? (besides the obvious...I have boxes upon boxes of photos!)

We have a binder with all of the important papers we need titles, insurance, pet vacinations, etc.

This goes in the vehicle that is going to evacuate. The vehicle that isn't goes under a pine tree. :biggrin: Seriously, we try to take both vehicles, but if we can't then the one that isn't going goes as far north as possible or into a parking garage in PCB.

[Beachmom]

I've done the binder thing also, and another one with back up disc of most of my photos...but not all.

[jdarg]

Maybe a silly question but how far does one need to go to off the coast to get to safety?

Come to Tally! And if it gets too close there- let's go to Jacksonville!

Seriously, I have reservations.:blush:

[SHELLY]

ok, say you are going to evacuate....besides what you need for a few days- what do you take?? (besides the obvious...I have boxes upon boxes of photos!)

Credit cards; cash; computer; cellphone; address/phone listing; perscription drugs; important documents (birth/wedding certs; deeds; financial documents; insurance policies, etc.); keys to the kingdom; your best wines and liquors (now's a good excuse to finally open those "special bottles").

Pick a single point of contact (a family member or friend not in hurricane area) and let all other acquaintences filter info to you through them and visa versa, until you give the all-clear sign. Also keep in contact with someone who doesn't evacuate so you can get info on what's going on in the area.

.

[NoHall]

I think the whole thing of ATL getting clobbered is just more Weather Channel crapola. We evacuated there for Dennis and a friend to call and make sure we were okay since he heard on the weather channel that downtown was flooding. We just let him know that the little creek that apparently is slightly north of downtown was having some issues, but everything else was fine. Including the underground.



Backed up storm drains doth not a flood make. :lol: Peachtree Creek rises and falls constantly--the city's infrastructure is a greater hazard than the creek!

Atlanta gets clobbered with violent weather, but it's over before you have time to run to the basement most of the time.

[jdarg]

I'm in the process of reorganizing the files so the stuff that I need to grab is all together at the front- grab and go!

[Beachmom]

me too! but sometimes the process is ENDLESS!!!!!:bang:

[tistheseason]

You can always follow us back to the ATL. . .we're going to be in Sowal over the weekend and I guess driving back in the rain.

Beachmom/Punzy -- where ever you go, don't forget to stop and get GAS!!! :rolling:

[MissCritter]

Remember too, that text messaging often works when regular cell phone calls don't go through.

Beachmom, put as many of your photos as you can in waterproof bins in an interior room with no windows on a raised table on the ground floor. That way, you may have some protection against water intrusion from windows or roof and rising water from below. If you have any small items of great sentimental value that simply cannot be replaced, and car space allows, bring them with you also.

[SGB]

I'm in the process of reorganizing the files so the stuff that I need to grab is all together at the front- grab and go!

After 2 evacuations, we put little bright orange stickers on the files we'd need to take with us. Easy to grab and go. Back up those computer files on an external hard drive and take that with you too. If you have a laptop, definitely take that to check on what's happening and connect to SoWal.

[DuneLaker]

The local TV station out of PCB at 6:30 a.m. today stated Gustav had shifted west and was no longer taking in the Apalachicola area and that should be good for the Labor Day Weekend crowd and business in Panama City area. (although there were some cancellations) A few minutes later, The Weather Channel storm report did not have this updated info and still showed last nights cone of possibility taking in Apalachicola. Why is that? You would think they'd have more up to date information. If travelers are planning their Labor Day excursions here they are more discouraged by current TWC. Hopefully they have alternate sources such as those listed here.

[BeachSiO2]

With the overnight SW jog, I am seeing the same thing as the NHC, which is west of NOLA on Tuesday am.

[Miss Kitty]

With the overnight SW jog, I am seeing the same thing as the NHC, which is west of NOLA on Tuesday am.

This sounds Rita like. :( I am heading to Houston today or tomorrow. Good thing in case I need to evacuate PawPaw.

[jodiFL]

After 2 evacuations, we put little bright orange stickers on the files we'd need to take with us. Easy to grab and go. Back up those computer files on an external hard drive and take that with you too. If you have a laptop, definitely take that to check on what's happening and connect to SoWal.
And if you dont have an external hard drive you can just take the internal one with you. They are quite easy to unplug and small enough to fit in a purse. I have done this on several occasions.

[InletBchDweller]

I stopped about 30 minutes above Lafayette, La. yesterday to buy more water and batteries. They were already out, completely. :shock: I am guessing people here are gun shy, with good reason. Mr. IBD is headed to Grande Isle to bring back a boat and I was told that they are buttoning up the oil platforms today and evacuating them. So much for a nice weekend in NO for Labor Day...:(

We are ready....:wave:

[Beachmom]

You can always follow us back to the ATL. . .we're going to be in Sowal over the weekend and I guess driving back in the rain.

Beachmom/Punzy -- where ever you go, don't forget to stop and get GAS!!! :rolling:


HA!HA!...Everybody's a comedian!!!:cool:

[30A Skunkape]

Wait, the Dargs can't leave, we were evacuating there!:blink:

[BeachSiO2]

Wait, the Dargs can't leave, we were evacuating there!:blink:

No worries, I'll let you stay there with me. ;-) I have already made reservations at the Darghotel if they leave. :floor:

[Tootsie]

Maybe a silly question but how far does one need to go to off the coast to get to safety?

well, you can join us at the bay and be okay in most cases. but if its predicted to be cat III or above we evacuate to Bham (family) where it always follows and we still end up in a storm and without power. many friends head over to Disney for a funn family vacay.

[TooFarTampa]

well, you can join us at the bay and be okay in most cases. but if its predicted to be cat III or above we evacuate to Bham (family) where it always follows and we still end up in a storm and without power. many friends head over to Disney for a funn family vacay.

Nobody around here does that anymore, not after Charley! :shock:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/charley/3_FW_CWA.png

[30A Skunkape]

No worries, I'll let you stay there with me. ;-) I have already made reservations at the Darghotel if they leave. :floor:
But I was counting on Dargaritas to ward off the humid electricless state.

[BeachSiO2]

But I was counting on Dargaritas to ward off the humid electricless state.

Hmm, I understand. But as far as electricless, that's not a problem. I come prepared. My generator will power a fan, the fridge, tv and cable box or satellite, two lamps and a window air conditioner unit so it's not too bad. :biggrin:

[30A Skunkape]

OK, so I am listening to WWL this morning and the meteorologist is saying that the track changed so much overnight because the National Hurricane Center didn't have the true center of the storm correct yesterday (yet another thing we can blame on George Bush;-)). She opined that our first realistic track would be coming out later today.
If you are interested in 24/7 hurricane hysteria you can stream WWL here: http://www.wwl.com/

[InletBchDweller]

OK, so I am listening to WWL this morning and the meteorologist is saying that the track changed so much overnight because the National Hurricane Center didn't have the true center of the storm correct yesterday (yet another thing we can blame on George Bush;-)). She opined that our first realistic track would be coming out later today.
If you are interested in 24/7 hurricane hysteria you can stream WWL here: http://www.wwl.com/

hurricane hysteria :bang::bang: I just wanna see some football!!:wave:

[jdarg]

No worries, I'll let you stay there with me. ;-) I have already made reservations at the Darghotel if they leave. :floor:

well, you can join us at the bay and be okay in most cases. but if its predicted to be cat III or above we evacuate to Bham (family) where it always follows and we still end up in a storm and without power. many friends head over to Disney for a funn family vacay.


I am already worn out from messing with Gustav.:bang:

[BeachSiO2]

I am already worn out from messing with Gustav.:bang:

I wouldn't be packing my bags yet; however, early planning reservations are good. :biggrin:

Hey, if you evacuate will you leave Skunky, Punzy and I some Dargaritas in the fridge. :funn: Sorry, I had to do it. :blush:

[scooterbug44]

One way to keep important papers & photos safe and easily accessible is to put them on a disk or the internet. You can easily scan documents and have a disk w/ pdfs instead of a stack of paper.

I have a dedicated gmail address that I email my pictures to for additional backup.

[MissCritter]

Local weatherman reminded us last night that 5-day-out predictions have an average error of 300 miles. Wonder what the average error is for 4 days out. . . . .:blink:

[aleonard]

Local weatherman reminded us last night that 5-day-out predictions have an average error of 300 miles. Wonder what the average error is for 4 days out. . . . .:blink:
I would think the room for error decreases with time. I have often noticed that many Hurricanes like to take a quick right just before landfall.:blink:

[scooterbug44]

Local weatherman reminded us last night that 5-day-out predictions have an average error of 300 miles. Wonder what the average error is for 4 days out. . . . .:blink:

Yep, 5 days out they were saying Katrina would make landfall in Seagrove Beach, so I take most of their early predictions w/ a shaker of salt!

[Smiling JOe]

Maybe a silly question but how far does one need to go to off the coast to get to safety?
BeachSi02 called it, going north, expect heavy rains, possible flooding, tornadoes, power outages, far up into Alabama and GA.
With Hurricane Ivan, there was really bad flooding around Asheville, North Carolina. Sometimes tornadoes and inland flooding are far more dangerous than the coast. ...

Funny you say that. I left town for Ivan, and went back to my former home of Asheville for a week. We got heavy rains, light winds for about three or four days. It was the most rainfall in over 100 years. I have photos of Biltmore Village completely underwater. The French-Broad River was about to top the really tall bridge. I waited long enough, and when the rain stopped, I decided to head back to FL to see if I had a house. I was trapped. Couldn't go my usual way home through Biltmore Village. River Road was also under water. Tried to go leave via the west side of town, trapped again. East route of town also flooded by the river, so I had to drive north and scoot around Asheville -- crazy.

[sunspotbaby]

Local weatherman reminded us last night that 5-day-out predictions have an average error of 300 miles. Wonder what the average error is for 4 days out. . . . .:blink:

I would think the room for error decreases with time. I have often noticed that many Hurricanes like to take a quick right just before landfall.:blink:


Yeah, I don't recall any predictions that included the little south/southwest jaunt it took last night! :roll:

[MissCritter]

Yeah, I don't recall any predictions that included the little south/southwest jaunt it took last night! :roll:

It the sowal collective unconscious making the push. Let's keep it up, folks. :clap:

[jdarg]

I wouldn't be packing my bags yet; however, early planning reservations are good. :biggrin:

Hey, if you evacuate will you leave Skunky, Punzy and I some Dargaritas in the fridge. :funn: Sorry, I had to do it. :blush:

Sorry- the tequila will be with me!!

[beachmouse]

One more suggestion if you evacuate- power surges as the grid goes down can zap a lot of home electronics. Unplug and then trip the breakers for everything except for two things- a) the refridgerator and b) the outlet nearest the phone jack. Get a cheap old school answering machine that requires the power to be on in order to give the 'Hi, this is the Funn residence' and you've got an easy way to check the status of the electrical grid when you're away from home.

[NotDeadYet]

OK, so I am listening to WWL this morning and the meteorologist is saying that the track changed so much overnight because the National Hurricane Center didn't have the true center of the storm correct yesterday (yet another thing we can blame on George Bush;-)). She opined that our first realistic track would be coming out later today.That is just completely nutso. :bang: Was she suggesting that NHC faked the data from the hurricane hunter flights? Or perhaps they faked the satellite passes too?
And all the other data that not just the NHC but private services use to work up a track? Why would anyone think that? :confused:
True enough the NHC could sure use some more money and equipment, but they are still getting real time data and they have some very good mets who might be surprised to hear how they got it wrong.

[beachmouse]

The reason why the NHC couldn't find a center of the storm parts of yesterday is that it didn't exist. The mountains of Haiti once more ripped a tropical cyclone apart until it was barely a tropical depression.

Once that happens, and if you've still got a lot of disturbed air and nothing to prevent redevelopment, it's common to see a center of circulation reform elsewhere in the blob'o'weather, something that takes a couple hours to happen.

[jodiFL]

The reason why the NHC couldn't find a center of the storm parts of yesterday is that it didn't exist. The mountains of Haiti once more ripped a tropical cyclone apart until it was barely a tropical depression.

Once that happens, and if you've still got a lot of disturbed air and nothing to prevent redevelopment, it's common to see a center of circulation reform elsewhere in the blob'o'weather, something that takes a couple hours to happen.
And once it has gone back down to TD/TS status, the planes dont fly back to determine the true center again until the next day.

[shakennotstirred]

One more suggestion if you evacuate- power surges as the grid goes down can zap a lot of home electronics. Unplug and then trip the breakers for everything except for two things- a) the refridgerator and b) the outlet nearest the phone jack. Get a cheap old school answering machine that requires the power to be on in order to give the 'Hi, this is the Funn residence' and you've got an easy way to check the status of the electrical grid when you're away from home.

Good suggestion! We had a power surge near my house last month & 560 homes lost an average of $1,000 in appliances. Most of these appliances had power surge protection.

[30ashopper]

The latest models seem to be indicating a shift toward Texas, maybe Houston?

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

[Miss Kitty]

The latest models seem to be indicating a shift toward Texas, maybe Houston?

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

I made the decision to leave for Houston tomorrow instead of today. This will give us plenty of time to prepare and get PawPaw back to Dallas. Poor thing...Katrina hit on his Aug. 29th bday and now this IDIOT Swedish fish is trying to distrupt his 83rd!

Continue the updates....I really appreciate all your knowledge.

[BeachSiO2]

I made the decision to leave for Houston tomorrow instead of today. This will give us plenty of time to prepare and get PawPaw back to Dallas. Poor thing...Katrina hit on his Aug. 29th bday and now this IDIOT Swedish fish is trying to distrupt his 83rd!

Continue the updates....I really appreciate all your knowledge.

I don't think Houston, but the Rita track looks pretty good right now, maybe Red Stick

[Cheering472]

I made the decision to leave for Houston tomorrow instead of today. This will give us plenty of time to prepare and get PawPaw back to Dallas. Poor thing...Katrina hit on his Aug. 29th bday and now this IDIOT Swedish fish is trying to distrupt his 83rd!

Continue the updates....I really appreciate all your knowledge.

WOW 83! Happy Birthday PawPaw!! :clap:

[InletBchDweller]

IDIOT Swedish fish :floor:


A good tip I heard today on WWL was to look for batteries, flashlights, gas cans and generators at Auto Stores (auto zone, o'rileys,pep boys) I personally had never thought of that as I always think "big box" stores. The first auto store I went into I scored on 12 D cell batteries. :clap:

Another tip I heard was to fill up your boat with gas instead of all the cans.

[MissCritter]

Just got this in an email. WIth apologies to my home state. (Kurt, please delete if not allowed.)

http://us.mg3.mail.yahoo.com/ya/download?mid=1%5f754410%5fAMzHtEQAAU5qSLcBBQrjSk%2 bg8h8&pid=3&fid=Inbox&inline=1

[InletBchDweller]

Just got this in an email. WIth apologies to my home state. (Kurt, please delete if not allowed.)

http://us.mg3.mail.yahoo.com/ya/download?mid=1%5f754410%5fAMzHtEQAAU5qSLcBBQrjSk%2 bg8h8&pid=3&fid=Inbox&inline=1

Well, all I see is a red X. :idontno:

[organicmama]

Well, all I see is a red X. :idontno:

Me, too! What did you put that was that bad? :floor:

[Smiling JOe]

For you insect hating people, you might want to stock up on DEET, if for some reason you stick around and the water pushes you out of your home.

[MissCritter]

How about now? Keep in mind this sent from La. Guess you've gotta have a sense of humor after all they've been through.

http://i383.photobucket.com/albums/oo279/sowalwriter/gustav.jpg?t=1219958009

[futurebeachbum]

Here's an ugly animation (http://web.me.com/johnrharlow/Weather/Storms.html) I put together from the European Weather Site (ECWMF (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20 America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070612!!/)) that shows Gustaf rolling up thru the Gulf and a few days latter a bigger/badder Hannah following almost the same track (maybe a little east of Gustav.)

You can see from this image, how big Hannah is in their model.

[beachmouse]

Good suggestion! We had a power surge near my house last month & 560 homes lost an average of $1,000 in appliances. Most of these appliances had power surge protection.

In, IIRC, 2003, we had that same kind of lightning storm go through our neighborhood. Even though the lines are underground, we still had about $4K worth of damage to electronics in our house.

Why is it that when that kind of stuff happens, the appliances you really hope would die don't*, but the stuff you actually like gets fried?

Okay, I was glad when the garage door opener got fried because it was weird even before then, but the rest of the mess broke or didn't along those lines.

[seagrovegirl]

Gustav appears to be taking the same path as Hurricane Eloise, that smashed Sowal in 1975. It was a direct hit. We were living in Dune Allen at the time and the eye came right over the house. Ten days no elec and extensive damage to homes (especially the beach homes) huge trees toppled or splintered like sticks. No communications for 3 days.

Very Nasty...if Gustav does what Eloise did.....please don't stay. If you do and you come out unscathed, you will wish you didn't stay. It is terrifying!:yikes:

[ShallowsNole]

What seagrovegirl said. And even though very few people actually evacuated back then, we went to bed with the broadcasts predicting landfall at Mobile.

Eloise turned. :yikes:

[seagrovegirl]

What seagrovegirl said. And even though very few people actually evacuated back then, we went to bed with the broadcasts predicting landfall at Mobile.

Eloise turned. :yikes:

And as you can see.....she turned at the last minute!!!!!!!!!!!:yikes::yikes::yikes:

[aleonard]

Gustav appears to be taking the same path as Hurricane Eloise, that smashed Sowal in 1975. It was a direct hit. We were living in Dune Allen at the time and the eye came right over the house. Ten days no elec and extensive damage to homes (especially the beach homes) huge trees toppled or splintered like sticks. No communications for 3 days.

Very Nasty...if Gustav does what Eloise did.....please don't stay. If you do and you come out unscathed, you will wish you didn't stay. It is terrifying!:yikes:

What seagrovegirl said. And even though very few people actually evacuated back then, we went to bed with the broadcasts predicting landfall at Mobile.

Eloise turned. :yikes:

We were about 45 miles inland and she picked up 100 year old pecan trees and laid them out like toothpicks. Also, picked up the family car and turned it around in our yard. First Hurricane I remember and she was a bad mama jama :shock:

[seagrovegirl]

Uh-oh.....I might need to go further than Paxton.........any thoughts on this????

[InletBchDweller]

How about now? Keep in mind this sent from La. Guess you've gotta have a sense of humor after all they've been through.

http://i383.photobucket.com/albums/oo279/sowalwriter/gustav.jpg?t=1219958009
I love it. You have to keep some sort of humor our you will go insane...:lol:
And as you can see.....she turned at the last minute!!!!!!!!!!!:yikes::yikes::yikes: women, always changing their mind.:roll:

[aleonard]

Uh-oh.....I might need to go further than Paxton.........any thoughts on this????

We were right across the line from Paxton. But, I believe we see a lot of power outages and such because a big storm hadn't hit in a long time, and they do a lot of pruning when they come through. Tornado's scare me more than Hurricanes. Eloise also showed that quick right hook before landfall that many do. Let's just all be prepared to make a move if we have to do it:wave:

[AuntJulz]

Gustav appears to be taking the same path as Hurricane Eloise, that smashed Sowal in 1975. It was a direct hit. We were living in Dune Allen at the time and the eye came right over the house. Ten days no elec and extensive damage to homes (especially the beach homes) huge trees toppled or splintered like sticks. No communications for 3 days.

Very Nasty...if Gustav does what Eloise did.....please don't stay. If you do and you come out unscathed, you will wish you didn't stay. It is terrifying!:yikes:
I would hope that 33 years later, we have better technology to track and predict these things. I mean, I know that it's unpredictible past 3 days, but for it to be totally missed until the last minute is not acceptable in 2008.

[DD]

How about now? Keep in mind this sent from La. Guess you've gotta have a sense of humor after all they've been through.

http://i383.photobucket.com/albums/oo279/sowalwriter/gustav.jpg?t=1219958009

:biggrin:

Oh my. Everyone please be safe--wherever this mofo goes. :eek:

[jodiFL]

I just hope that we dont get another record on the books for having 2 storms make landfall in FL on the same day........that would REALLY su**. But from the looks of all those models it is possible. I called Fay for making the record books for the most landfalls in one state and had a premonition at the Red Bar earlier that they both hit at the same time. *crosses self*

[cp]

well, what kind of a name is this ??
All water,gas cans etc are gone up here (Jackson metro area) my birthday is Monday the 1st, its bad enough that Big K came on my birthday eve 3 years ago.
I don't have a generator so I'm just praying . Now is one of the times I wish I'd saved old water bottles. I don't buy milk in gallons either.

[cp]

oh yeah,I forgot to say that yesterday I filled up with gas for $3.19 per gallon at Kroger today its jumped to $ 3.51 a gallon:bang:

[MissCritter]

oh yeah,I forgot to say that yesterday I filled up with gas for $3.19 per gallon at Kroger today its jumped to $ 3.51 a gallon:bang:

Wow! :yikes: But I guess we shouldn't be surprised. It takes minutes to go up and weeks to go down.

[NotDeadYet]

Here's from the NHC, five o'clock discussion:"IN FACT...TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE
FORECASTS...THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE
OF LOUISIANA."

Well that about covers it. :cool:

[DuneLaker]

I tried to post some pictures of Hurricane Eloise. Also have a movie (old family 8mm now on cd). Maybe I'll figure it out tomorrow. It shows Lake Tresca and Eastern Lake joined. Water going through where now there is a house on the corner of SanRoy. You may just have to come by the house to see them. I drove back from Pensacola today and must have passed a dozen busses heading west, I guess towards New Orleans.

[beacheart]

Very interesting posts about hurricane Eloise. Hope to see your pictures of Eloise tomorrow. As far as Gustav turning at the last minute - how much time does that give people to prepare their homes?

[Arkiehawg]

For those 'Cane Nerds.... Here is Jamaican Live Radio while Gus beats on them......

http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/

[30ashopper]

Does anyone know where to find one of those sea tempurature maps of the gulf? I was searching around but couldn't find a current one. I'm curious what Gustav will be passing over on it's way up towards us.

[wrobert]

Does anyone know where to find one of those sea tempurature maps of the gulf? I was searching around but couldn't find a current one. I'm curious what Gustav will be passing over on it's way up towards us.


When I worked in emergency management I use to monitor ones on a FSU website. Sorry do not remember the url. It was all the readings from buoys in the Gulf. A lot of good information.

[TooFarTampa]

Does anyone know where to find one of those sea tempurature maps of the gulf? I was searching around but couldn't find a current one. I'm curious what Gustav will be passing over on it's way up towards us.

Jeff Masters has described what I think he calls a loop eddy (which has broken off from the main loop) and it is sitting south-southwest of New Orleans. The temperatures there are warmer than the surrounding waters, and if the storm passes over it, it could be very very bad.

[Smiling JOe]

Does anyone know where to find one of those sea tempurature maps of the gulf? I was searching around but couldn't find a current one. I'm curious what Gustav will be passing over on it's way up towards us.

>>>heat map link<<< (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_flashtool.html?extraprod=flashtool#a_topa d)

You can push the interactive map around by click and dragging your cursor. To the right of the map, click on "keys" to see the legend of temps. You can also scroll over the time chart at the bottom to pop up data as the storm progresses into the future. Other storm info is also on there, Hanna and Invest 96, in particular right now. In the "control panel," you can click on "IR Sat" to see the winds and the storm temps. (back to that legend to see the temps of the winds)

[organicmama]

For those 'Cane Nerds.... Here is Jamaican Live Radio while Gus beats on them......

http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/

Thanks! My college friends from Jamaica have been on my mind all day long.

To think that for 6 years of my life, I planned on living on an island in the Caribbean. To know now that I can hop in my vehicle and hit the road, compared to not being able to get off the island.... what was I thinking? Although, it was my getaway during the "Y2K scare" because my thought was I would rather be on an island that can handle the issues of no electricity, etc. at that point.

[wrobert]

Found a starting point. Cool information on what is going on in the Gulf.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

[Smiling JOe]

Looks like Gustav will be hitting the hottest water on Sunday, within a day of landfall, regardless of it hitting anywhere from Mexico to the FL Panhandle.

[calbeach95]

A client passed along a good tip:
If you have to evacuate or just want to try to protect valuables from water, put your laptop, photo albums and any other items you might want to protect from water into your dishwasher. It has a watertight seal. Be sure to turn off the water to the machine, just in case. You can remove the racks for more room.

For out of town family:
Have a "point" person in another unaffected area or state that you call to advise or check in prior to a storm, evacuation or imminent emergency. Tell all of your relatives, employees, concerned others to check in with that point person to find out about your details. This helps to reduce congestion on the cell sites, which commonly become clogged in emergencies.

My family has an emergency call tree for my kids in college in California. This was very helpful during the earthquake this summer. While fairly uneventful, no one could get through on cell phones for a few hours. My son called me immediately after the earthquake from a landline and I called family members who called others. Everyone was able to find out all was ok,..

[Smiling JOe]

calbeach, the dishwasher idea sounds like a great suggestion, as does the emergency calling tree. Everyone should have more than one emergency contact person in different locations, and they should be aware of the others on the list so that they can communicate with each other.

One other good idea is to enter at least two "ICE" numbers in your cell phone, under the name "ICE" (In Case of Emergency). All emergency staffers and volunteers know to check for "ICE" in cases where the victim cannot speak. Having more than one located in different areas is also key, because very often, one of the people on our ICE list may be with us most of the time. Be sure to inform your ICE people that they are on a call list for emergency reasons. You should indicate the person's name and relationship to you on the ICE listing. Have cell number, work number and home number, as well as email address.

[DuneLaker]

The last "cone" of possible impact on TWC (9:34 a.m. Friday, Aug. 29) seemed to leave out South Walton and Panama City Beach. Pensacola, which is about 80 miles to the east of us seems to be on the edge. Any other confirmation on this? Weather is great here today. Blue skies. People at beach and playing golf.

[Smiling JOe]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_5day.gif

Looks to me like the cone currently stretches out as far as the Destin area, and with Hurricane force winds being the worst on the east side, and the storm stretching out 50 miles from the eye, we could still be in trouble. Also, expect this cone to change over today, tomorrow.

[NatiBeachLuvr]

The last "cone" of possible impact on TWC (9:34 a.m. Friday, Aug. 29) seemed to leave out South Walton and Panama City Beach. Pensacola, which is about 80 miles to the east of us seems to be on the edge. Any other confirmation on this? Weather is great here today. Blue skies. People at beach and playing golf.

Dunelaker, CNN's cone/map leaves out Sowal too. I hope it stays away but hate to wish it on anyone else.

[seagrovegirl]

The expected shift is toward the west, then a jog back to the east when the high pressure system above us pushes down on the storm. Currently, there are two systems that will effect Gustav as he approaches and that is why it is hard to predict where he will go. Just keep an eye on the situation and pray it heads west and stays west.

[aufan]

Based upon the current (latest) track. What is the anticipated affect on SoWal? When?

Thanks

[BeachSiO2]

The last "cone" of possible impact on TWC (9:34 a.m. Friday, Aug. 29) seemed to leave out South Walton and Panama City Beach. Pensacola, which is about 80 miles to the east of us seems to be on the edge. Any other confirmation on this? Weather is great here today. Blue skies. People at beach and playing golf.

From the latest update I have seen it also does not include sowal. It actually doesn't include any of Florida.

[BeachSiO2]

Based upon the current (latest) track. What is the anticipated affect on SoWal? When?

Thanks

Based on the current guesstimates, probably some heavy surf over the weekend and Monday but that's about it.

[beachmouse]

While I don't think we'll get the eye of the storm, there are a couple things going on with the timing and development of the trough that's supposed to pull Gus to the NW that I wouldn't be surprised to see the storm shift a little to the east, and by the time the storm gets into the Gulf, it could be big enough we get a little bit of tropical storm force winds and the usual weak tornadoes you get on the fringes of hurricanes.

[JoshMclean]

I'm heading to the Bahamas on Wednesday. What luck if we get here and there!

[MissCritter]

I'm heading to the Bahamas on Wednesday. What luck if we get here and there!

I think Hanna is the greater problem there.

[sowalgayboi]

One way to keep important papers & photos safe and easily accessible is to put them on a disk or the internet. You can easily scan documents and have a disk w/ pdfs instead of a stack of paper.

I have a dedicated gmail address that I email my pictures to for additional backup.

You? The queen of internet paranoia? :shock:

I tried to post some pictures of Hurricane Eloise. Also have a movie (old family 8mm now on cd). Maybe I'll figure it out tomorrow. It shows Lake Tresca and Eastern Lake joined. Water going through where now there is a house on the corner of SanRoy. You may just have to come by the house to see them. I drove back from Pensacola today and must have passed a dozen busses heading west, I guess towards New Orleans.

Let me know if you haven't figured it out and I'll see what I can do to help. :wave:

Does anyone know where to find one of those sea tempurature maps of the gulf? I was searching around but couldn't find a current one. I'm curious what Gustav will be passing over on it's way up towards us.

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/pt_BR/tropical/gulf_sst_720x486.jpg

A client passed along a good tip:
If you have to evacuate or just want to try to protect valuables from water, put your laptop, photo albums and any other items you might want to protect from water into your dishwasher. It has a watertight seal. Be sure to turn off the water to the machine, just in case. You can remove the racks for more room.

This doesn't work too well, some friend of ours tried this in Mississippi during Katrina and came back to find no house whatsoever. If you want it, treasure it, and can't imagine losing it you're best off taking it with you.

I'm heading to the Bahamas on Wednesday. What luck if we get here and there!

Cash drop?

[InletBchDweller]

ok, things are starting to get crazy here. Wally world was almost out of bread and peanut butter. This lady today almost went off on me and the cashier b/c the cashier was leaving after my purchase. :shock:

Mr. IBD just went to home depot, he felt the need :roll: for a third generator. He got the last one...:clap:He said it was the DMZ! People were sitting and laying on generators waiting for someone they know to come and purchase them. So far the 5 gas stations he has been to are out of gas.

Being that it is a Friday, pay day, labor day weekend, storm is on the way and the LSU game time has been moved things are in complete chaos. Not us though. we are :cool:.

[sowalgayboi]

OMG not the LSU game! It's all over people!!! :funn:

[Smiling JOe]

While it doesn't look like Gustav will be stronger than a Cat 2, I pray for everyone in the path. NOLA and the Mississippi Gulf Coast will likely be affected to some degree. You guys be safe! Remember that things, and even precious photos, are not important -- people are important.

Speaking of precious old family photos, you can always digitally scan them as back ups in case something happens to the originals. If you don't have a scanner, you can still take them to places like the UPS store or Kinko's and have them scanned to CD. You can then upload them to the free storage websites like www.Flickr.com , www.photobucket.com , and sowal.com . Many of these free sites even have the ability to set your profile to private, so only you and people you choose, can view the pics or just select albums. You could have some public albums and some private.

Anywho, be safe! Think. Plan. Have contingency plans.

[Miss Kitty]

I am so pleased to see LA taking all these precautions. Hard lessons were learned.

[bluemtnrunner]

My sister's computer just crashed and she lost all of her photos and music. I learned the lesson and went out and got a Western Digital Passport that holds 320 gig. $120 well spent in my opinion. I filled half of it today with my photos and music. It goes between my Mac and PC seamlessly. Tomorrow the rest of my docs are going on there and I am scanning every shred of legal paperwork I have and getting it uploaded as well. This isn't just hurricane preparedness, it is good overall planning.

[organicmama]

My sister's computer just crashed and she lost all of her photos and music. I learned the lesson and went out and got a Western Digital Passport that holds 320 gig. $120 well spent in my opinion. I filled half of it today with my photos and music. It goes between my Mac and PC seamlessly. Tomorrow the rest of my docs are going on there and I am scanning every shred of legal paperwork I have and getting it uploaded as well. This isn't just hurricane preparedness, it is good overall planning.

I need to do this ASAP, as the dinosaur I'm using is almost a goner & we will be switching to a Mac. I don't want to loose the photos or music!

[organicmama]

ok, things are starting to get crazy here. Wally world was almost out of bread and peanut butter. This lady today almost went off on me and the cashier b/c the cashier was leaving after my purchase. :shock:

Mr. IBD just went to home depot, he felt the need :roll: for a third generator. He got the last one...:clap:He said it was the DMZ! People were sitting and laying on generators waiting for someone they know to come and purchase them. So far the 5 gas stations he has been to are out of gas.

Being that it is a Friday, pay day, labor day weekend, storm is on the way and the LSU game time has been moved things are in complete chaos. Not us though. we are :cool:.

Riv's worried about Little IBD! Please tell her that she's thinking about her!:wub:

[JoshMclean]

Cash drop?

What do you mean?

[JoshMclean]

Weather Underground now has this thing going to a Cat 4 Sunday night and back down to a Cat 3 before making land.

[Johnrudy]

Weather Underground now has this thing going to a Cat 4 Sunday night and back down to a Cat 3 before making land.

Our weathermen have been predicting the same thing.

[SHELLY]

Weather Underground now has this thing going to a Cat 4 Sunday night and back down to a Cat 3 before making land.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/tropical/trackmap.jpg

[Everytime]

calbeach, the dishwasher idea sounds like a great suggestion, as does the emergency calling tree. Everyone should have more than one emergency contact person in different locations, and they should be aware of the others on the list so that they can communicate with each other.

One other good idea is to enter at least two "ICE" numbers in your cell phone, under the name "ICE" (In Case of Emergency). All emergency staffers and volunteers know to check for "ICE" in cases where the victim cannot speak. Having more than one located in different areas is also key, because very often, one of the people on our ICE list may be with us most of the time. Be sure to inform your ICE people that they are on a call list for emergency reasons. You should indicate the person's name and relationship to you on the ICE listing. Have cell number, work number and home number, as well as email address.

Those do sound like good suggestions, as does the "old school" answering machine that someone had suggested inanother thread: deactivate your telco voicemail, and plug up an electric answeringmachine, so that you can determine, remotely, if you have power. My wife, brothers and niece evacuated early Saturday morning before Dennis, July 2005. She and I drove back down Monday evening, expecting everything to be fine since landfall had been 60+ miles west in the Navarre/Eglin area. We arrived at about 10:00 that Monday night, (expecting to host friends for most of the week), only to find the building structurally damaged, without power, and condemned. It was one of the few severe damages in SoWal, but we were able to get the last room at Hampton Inn at Bluewater Bay for the night (the Clemson/UF Hurricane Study project had most of the rooms and all of the parking lot for their "Twister" type research trucks).

I had never thought of the dishwasher plan, but it makes perfect sense.

[Everytime]

Based on the latest track posted by Shelly, it looks like my friends need to leave the Eastern Shore/Daphne area Monday morning. God Save the Dew Drop Inn, Fort Gaines, and Fort Morgan.

[ckhagen]

This is just so depressing.
We're from NOLA, 90% of my family is still there. My great-grandmother just got out of her FEMA trailer not 3 months ago. After Katrina, my parents had over 30 people sleeping in their house for weeks and ended up having to lease the house next door to put some of them in. Once again, they're panicking, seriously panicking. None of them think NOLA is anywhere near close to being able to handle this (the new flood gates are still under construction) if they take a direct hit. It's just depressing...

[sowalgayboi]

What do you mean?

Nevermind, bad joke referring to a trip to the caribbean.

[sowalgayboi]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_5day.gif

If this keeps up then NOLA may be safe.

[30ashopper]

Curving downward? This looks really good, for Texas.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

[Miss Kitty]

Looks like I have two days to decide whether to evacuate from Houston or not. It is really an electricity issue for us. Where is beachso2?

It's time to leave New Orleans
Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, much of it below sea level. While New Orleans must exist where it is, this is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday--sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush--and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there's no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don't test those Category 3 rated--but untested--levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating--Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h_pRg8PjsWyfviUQrPDgGKV_FnoQ) have already begun, which is a good idea.

[jodiFL]

I am glad to see officials in NOLA being a bit more proactive in the face of this storm ....
Those among New Orleans' estimated 310,000 to 340,000 residents who ignore orders to leave accept "all responsibility for themselves and their loved ones," the city's emergency preparedness director, Jerry Sneed, has warned.
Officials plan to announce a curfew that will mean the arrest of anyone still on the streets after a mandatory evacuation order goes out. Police and National Guardsman will patrol after the storm's arrival, and Gov. Bobby Jindal has said he requested additional search and rescue teams from other states.......
For the third day in a row, Jindal stressed that people with the means should stock up on food, water and other essentials, and prepare to head away from the coast.
"We all still have personal responsibility," he said. "Now's the time to begin making evacuation plans."..........
"We don't want folks worrying about their property. It is time for people to be worried about their personal safety," Jindal said..... full story here (http://my.earthlink.net/article/nat?guid=20080830/48b8c5c0_3ca6_1552620080830-1865644894)

[sunspotbaby]

Kitty, I don't know why you are having such a dilemma....drive to SoWal :biggrin:

My experience living in Houston...when it rains heavy, the streets flood....EVERY DANG TIME! And God help it if it rains heavy for days and days.:eek:
But I was never out of power...:idontno: Tough call.

I really hope the Weather channel isn't discounting other possibilities of landfall just to have the drama of a NOLA direct hit. :blink:

[Hop]

this is a pretty cool model for all you surfers out there...
http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW-Surf-Charts/9/

[ronfrazer]

See the National Hurricane Center maps (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/085813.shtml?50wind120#contents). As of Saturday morning, 8/30, it looks like SoWal has a 20% chance of 50 MPH winds, and a 40% chance of TS winds--39+ MPH. We need to pray for the folks to the west of us.

[Landlocked]

Well now it is a cat 4 hurricane. 145 mph. That can't be good.