Tropical Storm Fay

[greenroomsurfer]

Here it comes! http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=6584&from=newslinker2

[daytripper]

What is the likelihood that this storm could move up into the Gulf??

[greenroomsurfer]

The last Faye in 2002 hit Texas.

[beachmouse]

If it's the same blob as Invest 92 that's down by Puerto Rico right now, then almost all the reputable models say it's going to recurve through the Bahamas.

[yippie]

If it's the same blob as Invest 92 that's down by Puerto Rico right now, then almost all the reputable models say it's going to recurve through the Bahamas.

I can't find any evidence that there is a tropical storm named Faye. All I see if invest 92 and the possibility of becoming a tropical depression.

Where is this tropical storm Faye?

[Smiling JOe]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200892_model.gif

From the blog of Dr Masters
www.weatherunderground.com
JeffMasters (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), 4:50 PM EDT on August 14, 2008

The forecast for 92L
Dry air will probably not be a problem for 92L any more. Wind shear is also not likely to be a problem--shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots the next five days, and may drop to near zero on Friday. Furthermore, an upper-level anticyclone is setting up on top of 92L. This will allow the air lifted from the surface by the storm's heavy thunderstorms to be efficiently spewed out to the sides, ventilating the storm and promoting even more intense thunderstorm activity.

I give 92L a high (>80% chance) of becoming a tropical storm by Friday afternoon. The latest (8 am EDT) model runs all foresee a track for 92L very close to Puerto Rico and the north coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Friday through Sunday. Heavy rains will be the main threat to these places, with 4-8 inches likely. Isolated higher amounts of up to 12 inches may fall in the mountains, triggering life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

In the longer term, an encounter with the rugged terrain of eastern Cuba is forecast by most of the models for Sunday. Passage over the rough terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba could severely disrupt or even destroy 92L. If the storm survives, it could intensify quickly into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, once it emerges over the warm waters of the Bahamas or Florida Straits. The eventual strength is highly dependent on the track of 92L, with a longer track over water giving it a greater chance of becoming a hurricane. The long range track of 92L is highly uncertain. Take your pick of 8 am EDT model runs:

GFDL, HWRF: parallel to the east coast of Florida, 50-100 miles offshore
UKMET: Through South Florida into the Gulf of Mexico
NOGAPS: Through the Florida Keys, then northwest towards the Alabama/Mississippi coast
GFS: Through the Bahamas, then north towards North Carolina
Canadian: Across Cuba and through the Cayman Islands, then north in the Gulf of Mexico


Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar (http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=JUA&type=N0Z&showstorms=0&lat=18.35000038&lon=-64.93333435&label=Saint%20Thomas,%20VI&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0)
href=http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=18.12000084&lon=-65.77999878&zoom=7 target="_blank" >Wundermap for Puerto Rico
St. Thomas, Virgin Islands weather (http://www.wunderground.com/US/VI/Saint_Thomas.html)
St. Martin webcam (http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/nettlebay/1/show.html)
Puerto Rico weather (http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=pr&wuSelect=WEATHER)

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (93L) about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is disorganized, and should not develop during the next 1-3 days. Several of the reliable computer models forecast development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa about 2-4 days from now.

I'll have an update when NHC designates 92L a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Jeff Masters

[Landlocked]

I was just reminiscing about when Ivan came to see us. Look at the weird path it took.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/Ivan_2004_track.png/800px-Ivan_2004_track.png

[BeachSiO2]

Latest guesstimate is east coast (lucky me :shock:) so I hope BobbyJ and others are getting their surfboards ready.

[Smiling JOe]

Where did you read that, beachSiO2? Six of the eight models, are showing paths pointing towards the Gulf. Notice the latest jogs back to the west for four of the models which at one time were showing a north progression up the east coast.

[BeachSiO2]

Where did you read that, beachSiO2? Six of the eight models, are showing paths pointing towards the Gulf. Notice the latest jogs back to the west for four of the models which at one time were showing a north progression up the east coast.

I know people who know people ;-). Unfortunately it is not a site I can link to but here were their comments from earlier today. To be fair though, they are not very confident, which is why I called it a "guesstimate." They are hedging their bets that it still to close to call. Also, they use 21 different models.

"We think that the disturbance will track generally westward over Hispaniola this afternoon through Saturday morning. Then, we expect it to move over Cuba on Saturday night and track west-northwestward over the island through Sunday afternoon. Most of our model guidance suggests that the system will make a relatively sharp turn to the north-northwest on Sunday night and track over the western Bahamas on Monday. On Tuesday, our forecast takes the system parallel to the east coast of Florida. At this point, we cannot tell just how close to the east coast of Florida the system will pass. It is quite possible that it may move inland over southeast Florida late Monday or on Tuesday morning. Our best estimate today is that it may pass between 50 and 150 miles east of the Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. We think that the north-northwesterly track would continue through Wednesday. The system has the potential to move inland into Georgia by the middle of next week."

[TreeFrog]

Notice the latest jogs back to the west for four of the models which at one time were showing a north progression up the east coast.

Those all happened on last night's 2AM EDT model runs. They should post the 8AM model runs shortly.

Jeff Masters has been commenting that an upper level low has been stuck over the Eastern US for weeks, and has resulted in the jet stream recurving systems northward quite early in their travels to the west. But he's repeatedly said that an upper level high is expected to replace the low, probably by tomorrow. That is expected to delay recurvature by pushing systems to the south and allowing them to continue their westward travels. He's been specific that this means systems are more likely to get into the gulf. See his 8/13 blog at www.wunderground.com/blogs.

So, it looks to me like the 2AM model runs now expect the arrival of the high pressure ridge and the resulting shift in the jet stream. Not what we'd like to see.

[beachmouse]

The sooner a system organizes, the sooner it gets pulled poleward. And since 92L isn't organizing as quickly as a lot of people expected, the models trended westward overnight.

Interesting position of the blob right now- Hispanola and the mountains of eastern Cuba are coming up, and they're high enough to tear apart many an existing storm or prevent other storms from forming.

[Smiling JOe]

The model map in post 6, above, has been updated to show the 8am (eastern) models. Looks like beachsio2's peeps might be worth keeping around. BeachSi02, you should chime in with that advanced data more often.

[daytripper]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200892_model.gif

[BeachSiO2]

The model map in post 6, above, has been updated to show the 8am (eastern) models. Looks like beachsio2's peeps might be worth keeping around. BeachSi02, you should chime in with that advanced data more often.

:wave: Thanks! I will and have a few times in the past. To be honest with you, I always check the storm threads on here, but usually don't have much to add since the other projections are pretty similar to the one I get. I will throw in my "buffalo nickel" when I see something that is different.

[aleonard]

:wave: Thanks! I will and have a few times in the past. To be honest with you, I always check the storm threads on here, but usually don't have much to add since the other projections are pretty similar to the one I get. I will throw in my "buffalo nickel" when I see something that is different.

Since I kinda know you, does that mean I know people, who know people, who know people?:biggrin:

[BeachSiO2]

Since I kinda know you, does that mean I know people, who know people, who know people?:biggrin:

I don't know who I know that you may know. But by kinda knowing you, I think we both know a few people who know us and know people. The real question is did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?:idontno:

[aleonard]

I don't know who I know that you may know. But by kinda knowing you, I think we both know a few people who know us and know people. The real question is did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?:idontno:

I don't know:blink:

People knowing people.
Buy water and beanie weenies they say.
Cantore appears.:eek:

http://www.redcross.org/press/images/thumbs/radio_JimCantoreTN.jpg

[ASH]

If the Weather Channel Hurricane model is accurate, the center of the cone goes right over the Keys and possibly up the Western coast. They state that there are too many unknowns this early in the development as well.

[BeachSiO2]

I don't know:blink:

People knowing people.
Buy water and beanie weenies they say.
Cantore appears.:eek:

http://www.redcross.org/press/images/thumbs/radio_JimCantoreTN.jpg

Although I appreciate creativity, was that supposed to be an haiku? If so your cup runneth over by a few syllables. How about this.

Drama increasing
Lights, Camera, Action, Go
Stormtracker appears

or

Stay away Ms. Faye
No vacancy in Sowal
Unwelcome tourist

[greenroomsurfer]

Here loop this and make your own decision on where it goes. The weather channel is about as accurate as a blind man in a white out trying to shoot an endangered species!http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[ASH]

Pretty cool stuff over there at NASA. Not enough information to change anything yet IMO.
I wonder how the front half way down the FL peninsula might play into this one as it would see as though it could steer a storm East once it is in the Gulf. I think it will also have a cooling affect that saps a storms strength.

I'll be watching this one over the next couple days.

Of course the media is already trying to call out the national guard you know.

[NotDeadYet]

Check out the afternoon model runs. :eek:
Click on Storm 92
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_1964 5022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[Smiling JOe]

Check out the afternoon model runs. :eek:
Click on Storm 92
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_1964 5022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_50.gif

That model starts looking like a double doozie, with the second one behind it on the map. In reality, I sure hope it isn't a quadradoozie. There is a third out there, and there is a fourth expected to develop in 2-3 days.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

[greenroomsurfer]

Show me a model of a model to show how accurate they are not!

[NotDeadYet]

You called it, Greenroom. It's now officially tropical Storm Fay.
SoWal is in the five day cone. Of course, so is the entire state of Florida. Be interesting to see what the emergency management folks do with this one. :yikes:

[daytripper]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_5day.gif

[greenroomsurfer]

I must go to the directions to Atlanta thread an bust ASH's chops. Have you seen the way he goes to Atlanta?

[TooFarTampa]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_5day.gif

For me this is by far the most disturbing of the disturbance maps. So do I go home, or not? :yikes:

[jdarg]

The kids here will be happy. This is like calling snow days.:shock:

[Beach Runner]

The kids here will be happy. This is like calling snow days.:shock:
Notice that it's "Fay" with no "e." Don't you just hate when people misspell your name?

I hope that Fay is not as powerful as Dennis.;-)

[Arkiehawg]

Notice that it's "Fay' with no "e." Don't you just hate when people misspell your name?

I hope that Fay is not as powerful as Dennis.;-)


Oh Fay can you see! :cool:

Ironically, we have a "training" session with FL1 DMAT next weekend.....jest might not be a "training" session after-all...;-)

[aleonard]

Although I appreciate creativity, was that supposed to be an haiku? If so your cup runneth over by a few syllables. How about this.

Drama increasing
Lights, Camera, Action, Go
Stormtracker appears

or

Stay away Ms. Faye
No vacancy in Sowal
Unwelcome tourist

:blush: I'm just a grasshopper:blush: and I have to get points for the beanie weenies:biggrin:

[NoHall]

During pre-planning at school Monday, we reviewed our "flood plan" and the head of security kept getting the giggles. Even so, I'm glad we're ready for Fay.

If any of y'all need to visit North Georgia, I'll clean out the extra bedroom.

[BeachSiO2]

FYI, JDarg and BDarg are good through a direct hit by a Cat 3, go stay with them. Just bring Charcoal, tequila and cold cuts and you should be fine. At least that is my arrangement for the "office." :floor::clap:

[BeachSiO2]

:blush: I'm just a grasshopper:blush: and I have to get points for the beanie weenies:biggrin:

Girlfriend/Grasshoper, you are all over the creativity, just not the specificity. :clap:

17 is the magic number.

[jdarg]

Notice that it's "Fay" with no "e." Don't you just hate when people misspell your name?

I hope that Fay is not as powerful as Dennis.;-)


Wow- y'all are are a storm name family!:lol:

[jdarg]

FYI, JDarg and BDarg are good through a direct hit by a Cat 3, go stay with them. Just bring Charcoal, tequila and cold cuts and you should be fine. At least that is my arrangement for the "office." :floor::clap:

And I am counting on you to tell us if we need to be worried, or if we are evacuating and you are "housesitting".

[30ashopper]

Fay has been sliding west, and the NHC just updated her to a possible hurricane. Another 150 miles west or more, Destin will be right in her path. IMHO everybody should be keeping an eye on this storm.

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn9/30ashopper/023713W_sm.gif

[Paula]

If it's a tropical storm that comes through around Wednesday, I'm assuming no need to evacuate because that's like a really, really big rain/wind storm and we just stay inside until it passes, right? There was this HUGE storm on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning - how many MPH was that storm? Seemed pretty wild to me.

[30A Skunkape]

Average the spaghetti strands and I am thinking Port St Joe(ish)
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html

[30A Skunkape]

If it's a tropical storm that comes through around Wednesday, I'm assuming no need to evacuate because that's like a really, really big rain/wind storm and we just stay inside until it passes, right? There was this HUGE storm on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning - how many MPH was that storm? Seemed pretty wild to me.

Yes. Tropical storms do not require evacuation. There was a period there Wednesday morning which was very reminiscent of tropical storms. Not too big of a deal if you can roll with short power outages.

[Bob]

We had a Cat 1[Charlie-2004] that literally kicked our arses here in O'town. Most of my neighbors had no power for a week, and downed oak trees were blocking streets. We missed the entire Olympics as it was over two weeks for cable to be restored. Do not discount a Cat 1 if you are directly in it's path.

[Miss Kitty]

I don't know:blink:

People knowing people.
Buy water and beanie weenies they say.
Cantore appears.:eek:

http://www.redcross.org/press/images/thumbs/radio_JimCantoreTN.jpg

Good try! :wave:

Although I appreciate creativity, was that supposed to be an haiku? If so your cup runneth over by a few syllables. How about this.

Drama increasing
Lights, Camera, Action, Go
Stormtracker appears

or

Stay away Ms. Faye
No vacancy in Sowal
Unwelcome tourist

:clap:...the Haiku Hero strikes again! Save, please!

Notice that it's "Fay" with no "e." Don't you just hate when people misspell your name?

I hope that Fay is not as powerful as Dennis.;-)

Oh, my...I thought the same thing...is the daughter representing this year?

I knew it was back to school there, but this is no funn!

[TreeFrog]

Average the spaghetti strands and I am thinking Port St Joe(ish)
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html

In recent seasons, Jeff Masters has said that GFDL, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS were historically the best at predicting track (if not necessarily at predicting intensity, but that's another topic).

But HWRF is a new and important model. NOAA commissioned its development as the eventual replacement for GFDL. It came online last year. They expect it to become the centerpiece of the suite of models they consult.

From the 2AM model runs
GFDL and HWRF - up the west coast of the peninsula
UKMET - Apalach
GFS - St. Marks and then Tallahassee
NOGAPS - Not shown on these runs on wunderground

In Jeff Masters' comparison of the accuracy of models (in his blog a couple of years ago) he noted that the official NWS/NHC forecast is consistently a more accurate track prediction than any individual model. If you read their 4-times-a-day forecasts, you'll find that they are usually close to the model consensus, but don't adhere blindly to it, applying some judgement instead.

As of 5 AM EDT, they say St. Marks.

[30A Skunkape]

Well I am thinking lots of folks are changing their beach bound plans now.

[NotDeadYet]

Nice analysis, TreeFrog, thanks.
I myself could not remember what Masters said about the models, so I appreciate this. Did you take notes? :confused:

[TreeFrog]

Nice analysis, TreeFrog, thanks.
I myself could not remember what Masters said about the models, so I appreciate this. Did you take notes? :confused:

Saved the blog. :D

[DD]

Well I am thinking lots of folks are changing their beach bound plans now.

Uh oh. I know someone who's headed that way. Hope she doesn't end up spending her vacay in Hattiesburg!:eek:

[30A Skunkape]

Uh oh. I know someone who's headed that way. Hope she doesn't end up spending her vacay in Hattiesburg!:eek:

Well, the rain is coming down steady here now. The map shows rain all along the gulf coast from Corpus to Tampa. Probably not the best beach week.

[DD]

Well, the rain is coming down steady here now. The map shows rain all along the gulf coast from Corpus to Tampa. Probably not the best beach week.

Probably not. Sad for her.

[jdarg]

No matter happens with Fay, this is a good reminder to finish getting some of the things together on our hurricane preparedness list that we have been putting off. Might as well do it today!

[30A Skunkape]

10AM track has it further east hugging Florida's west coast.

[kurt]

CNN just showed updated cone from NWC that shows it tracking a tad more east over land on Florida's west coast. Tampa right in the center - do not return to Tampa or the coast unless you are prepared to face a category 1 Hurricane, and certainly time your trip so that you aren't traveling near it.

[TooFarTampa]

CNN just showed updated cone from NWC that shows it tracking a tad more east over land on Florida's west coast. Tampa right in the center - do not return to Tampa or the coast unless you are prepared to face a category 1 Hurricane, and certainly time your trip so that you aren't traveling near it.

We are headed home with the idea that we may have to come right back. Gotta at least get the dog and secure our stuff, also the boys start their brand new school Monday and if it is in session I don't want them to miss it. :blink: Really it's a tough call. Best case is a curve rightward, less strenghening and it heads for the middle Keys and the Glades.

Just ... Yikes!

[Smiling JOe]

As a reminder, in our area, there could be many emergencies which could cause us to need emergency supplies. For example, a chlorine gas leak at the Sheriff's substation or at any other water tower in the area, could be cause for us to "Shelter in Place," requiring you to stay inside your homes, and seal doors and windows, for extended periods. Big scale emergencies don't happen too often in our area, but they are possible, and you should think of your kit as Emergency Kits, not Hurricane Kits.

[Smiling JOe]

TFT, Forget first day at new school, when life is potential threatened.

[Beach Runner]

Oh, my...I thought the same thing...is the daughter representing this year?
Well, one of the names is really close. And Nana is what she calls my Mom.

[Bob]

gee, my generators look a little dusty!

[BeachSiO2]

And I am counting on you to tell us if we need to be worried, or if we are evacuating and you are "housesitting".

I wouldn't be packing my bags quite yet if I were you. :biggrin:

[jdarg]

I wouldn't be packing my bags quite yet if I were you. :biggrin:


Gotcha.

[Minnie]

We had a Cat 1[Charlie-2004] that literally kicked our arses here in O'town. Most of my neighbors had no power for a week, and downed oak trees were blocking streets. We missed the entire Olympics as it was over two weeks for cable to be restored. Do not discount a Cat 1 if you are directly in it's path.

Was that Charley, if so I was there for that one and you are right it was something to see the next day. :blink:

The most recent prediction I saw was the one Kurt and TFT discussed. With Monday being the deciding day as to whether it hugs the Florida coast or moves to the Gulf.

Problem with these storms you don't want them to go anywhere.

I get so upset when I read the Disney forums during the days before a storm, because so many simply want it to move anywhere but Orlando so their vacation is not affected.:bang:

[bluemtnrunner]

HEY I'm going on vacation to scallop in Port St. Joe Monday-Wednesday. My last vacation was a year ago to kayak in Alaska. I know this one is only two hours away and for a couple of days but doggone I earned it and no TS is going to ruin it for me. Maybe I should go ahead and buy scallops and a larger ration of beer in case rain causes the inactment of Plan B!

[bluemtnrunner]

We had a Cat 1[Charlie-2004] that literally kicked our arses here in O'town. Most of my neighbors had no power for a week, and downed oak trees were blocking streets. We missed the entire Olympics as it was over two weeks for cable to be restored. Do not discount a Cat 1 if you are directly in it's path.


I don't discount any of them. And I remember that Charlie was a very unique animal. He went from Cat 2 to Cat 4 as he turned a sharp right and hit Charlotte Harbor and traveled up the middle of the state while still gaining some strength from the Harbor and from Peace River. He sucked that thing dry. My sister is the Chairman of the Sarasota Red Cross and had to go out to assess the damage. All those years of thinking that the inland folks would be spared from the full force of a hurricane were so wrong.

[tropicwatch]

HEY I'm going on vacation to scallop in Port St. Joe Monday-Wednesday. My last vacation was a year ago to kayak in Alaska. I know this one is only two hours away and for a couple of days but doggone I earned it and no TS is going to ruin it for me. Maybe I should go ahead and buy scallops and a larger ration of beer in case rain causes the inactment of Plan B!

As it stands now Plan B might not be a bad option. Of course things are always subject to change but right now the weather might actually stink next week. We will have to see if the NHC shifts the track more east again. I wouldn't hold my breath though!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0608W5_sm2+gif/203113W_sm.gif

Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info)

[ShallowsNole]

No matter happens with Fay, this is a good reminder to finish getting some of the things together on our hurricane preparedness list that we have been putting off. Might as well do it today!

You actually have a hurricane preparedness list? :blush:

We've been so busy watching the election that we are about as off-guard as people can possibly be!

[futurebeachbum]

I've consistently found that the European Weather Site (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20 America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070612!!/) has the best forecast model and they've been showing this storm tracking east of Florida for several days now. Now they show it going ashore in So Georgia. That hasn't happened in a long time.

You can press the play button labeled "Step Valid Time" and see where they show this storm going for the next few days.

[futurebeachbum]

I've consistently found that the European Weather Site (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20 America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070612!!/) has the best forecast model and they've been showing this storm tracking east of Florida for several days now. Now they show it going ashore in So Georgia. That hasn't happened in a long time.

You can press the play button labeled "Step Valid Time" and see where they show this storm going for the next few days.

Oops. I should have looked at the latest before posting. They now have it brushing the coast of the Carolinas. That's a change since lunchtime today.

[Cil]

I can't remember what site it was, but I was looking at hurricane stats for Jacksonville and basically it said we were due for a major storm before the end of 2009. With our governor declaring a state of emergency, I guess somebody somewhere in our state is expecting some weather.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080816/ap_on_re_us/tropical_weather_florida

[Smiling JOe]

I don't own one myself, but have thought about buying, and highly recommend to others, one of the small multifunctional radios, which has a flash light, radio, and one regular DC or AC outlet, which can be operated on batteries or hand cranked, user-generated. They could be great use if the power goes out and you are keeping tabs with ppl via text message, email via cell phone, or cell phone itself, if you are able to get a darn signal. Text messages will work best because they just sit in hold until a cell opens up, where the phone doesn't.

[Smiling JOe]

by: JeffMasters (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), 11:53 AM EDT on August 16, 2008
www.weatherunderground.com (http://www.weatherunderground.com)

...Fay's future strength when it hits the U.S. depends critically upon how much strengthening occurs today. Fay will be traversing the highest heat content waters in the entire Atlantic Ocean today, so there is the potential for the storm to reach Category 1 hurricane status before crossing Cuba Sunday night. If Fay does hit South Florida, the storm is likely to be a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, since it will not have enough time over water to reorganize much. A strike further up the coast will likely result in a stronger Fay at landfall, with a Category 3 storm not out of the question (20% chance).


The latest model map is below. NOGAPS model is pointed directly at Panama City area.
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_model.gif

[futurebeachbum]

This guy summarizes all of the sites. You'd be amazed at how much info is available.

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Its like a fix for a weather junkie.

[TreeFrog]

I don't own one myself, but have thought about buying, and highly recommend to others, one of the small multifunctional radios, which has a flash light, radio, and one regular DC or AC outlet, which can be operated on batteries or hand cranked, user-generated. They could be great use if the power goes out and you are keeping tabs with ppl via text message, email via cell phone, or cell phone itself, if you are able to get a darn signal. Text messages will work best because they just sit in hold until a cell opens up, where the phone doesn't.

Got one. Mine will charge your cell phone from either the radio's internal battery or from the hand crank. AM, FM, Shortwave, and broadcast TV (which of course will be useless once DTV comes along).

[NoHall]

As it stands now Plan B might not be a bad option. Of course things are always subject to change but right now the weather might actually stink next week. We will have to see if the NHC shifts the track more east again. I wouldn't hold my breath though!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0608W5_sm2+gif/203113W_sm.gif

Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info)

This looks like the optimal rain-dumping model for Georgia, at least...:blush:

But I hope for the best for all of you. Let us know if you need anything.

[Cil]

I don't own one myself, but have thought about buying, and highly recommend to others, one of the small multifunctional radios, which has a flash light, radio, and one regular DC or AC outlet, which can be operated on batteries or hand cranked, user-generated. They could be great use if the power goes out and you are keeping tabs with ppl via text message, email via cell phone, or cell phone itself, if you are able to get a darn signal. Text messages will work best because they just sit in hold until a cell opens up, where the phone doesn't.

Yeah, I had bought one of those when we moved to Port St Joe. Got it at Target. I finally found it again last week. The bleepin' thing didn't work anymore, not with hand crank, not with fresh batteries. ::sigh::

[2bohemians]

I don't own one myself, but have thought about buying, and highly recommend to others, one of the small multifunctional radios, which has a flash light, radio, and one regular DC or AC outlet, which can be operated on batteries or hand cranked, user-generated. They could be great use if the power goes out and you are keeping tabs with ppl via text message, email via cell phone, or cell phone itself, if you are able to get a darn signal. Text messages will work best because they just sit in hold until a cell opens up, where the phone doesn't.


We love our little cheapie solar / battery multifunctional radio and highly recommend them. It cost us about $10. We've stayed through all the storms and being able to crank up that little solar radio is a real godsend. It keeps us in touch with what's happening with the weather, road closures, after the storm help, etc. Without it we would have no idea what's going on in the outside world! It works like a charm. We just sit it on the porch and let it soak up the light ... give it a crank ... and just like that we are connected to important information. It also has a flashlight built in. We keep it in our beach bag all year and if we ever need a radio for any reason at the beach, we've got one.

[BeachSiO2]

Based on what my "people" are telling me, I am sticking with my earlier comments that Sowal will be safe from this one. While it does look like it is going to hit FL it will be far enough south so that sowal will not be impacted. Latest path takes it in between Tampa and Ft Myers just like the NHC says.

[Bob]

generators will undergo full functionality test today...I don't care for that track!

[BeachSiO2]

generators will undergo full functionality test today...I don't care for that track!

Good idea, and good luck as it looks like I am in the line of fire also. I had to fire mine up a couple of weeks ago after sitting dorment for three years and it started on the second pull. All it needed was gas. I hope you have a similar experience.

[TreeFrog]

Good idea, and good luck as it looks like I am in the line of fire also. I had to fire mine up a couple of weeks ago after sitting dorment for three years and it started on the second pull. All it needed was gas. I hope you have a similar experience.

You are more lucky than me. I had an unpleasant experience in the epic Memphis ice storm of 1994 when my (former) generator resolutely refused to start. Since then, I run it monthly for about a hour. Also, I add Stabil to the gas in both the generator and the gas I have stored for it.

[Smiling JOe]

NOGAPS model went from Mississippi at 2am back to directly over PC area by 10am. Still too early to call.

[jackieh]

So if its a catagory one will we need to evacuate our home since we live in a flood zone? I am new to all this...this will be our first time going through a hurricane.

[seagrovegirl]

Depends on where you live in Sowal...if you are on high ground, like Seagrove, you should be okay. A Cat 1 hurricane can be nasty but usually not anything to worry about, other than light damage, small trees falling and limbs and debris getting pushed around. High surf and small surge if we get a direct hit.

I live in a relatively low lying area in Pt. Washington, but would not leave for a Cat 1, except I have large oak trees hanging over my house. If one of those were to fall on it, or even some of the huge limbs, my house would be splintered.

[beacheart]

How could south walton be affected if Fay stays on the projected path? Wind, etc.? Trying to decide whether or not to come down there and secure items outside. Need opinions.

[MissCritter]

Depends on where exactly your home is located and how well it's built. Some leave for cat 1; many don't leave unless cat 3. As a life long gulf coaster, I've ridden out a few storms. If you do decide to stay, stock up on all the supplies recommended and know this: hurricanes last a LONG time. Even the "mild" ones seem like hell when the wind starts to howl. And when things finally get calm, that's just the eye of the storm. Then you can brace yourself for round 2.

That being said, Fay is not coming our way. Repeat after me, all together now: Fay is not coming our way.

[chrisv]

So if its a catagory one will we need to evacuate our home since we live in a flood zone? I am new to all this...this will be our first time going through a hurricane.

Jackie, you have to make that call based on gathering as much info as you can. Listen to the emergency management folks, talk to neighbors who've lived in the neighborhood for a while, and research your location. Pay attention to the storm track and intensity. Follow this l (http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/SurgeZones/SurgeZones_Walton.pdf)ink to a storm surge map (http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/SurgeZones/SurgeZones_Walton.pdf) for Walton County, find your location and see how it fares.

[jackieh]

Jackie, you have to make that call based on gathering as much info as you can. Listen to the emergency management folks, talk to neighbors who've lived in the neighborhood for a while, and research your location. Pay attention to the storm track and intensity. Follow this l (http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/SurgeZones/SurgeZones_Walton.pdf)ink to a storm surge map (http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/SurgeZones/SurgeZones_Walton.pdf) for Walton County, find your location and see how it fares.

I dont really understand this map. I found my location but I dont understand what the map is saying about my location. I live off Mack Bayou Rd in Driftwood Estates.
Thanks!!

[jackieh]

How many days do hurricanes take to pass through? We are supposed to leave early Saturday morning to drive to Miami for a cruise.

[chrisv]

I dont really understand this map. I found my location but I dont understand what the map is saying about my location. I live off Mack Bayou Rd in Driftwood Estates.
Thanks!!

It gives approximate surge danger by storm category. By finding your location (you can zoom in to get a better idea) you'll see if you're in a surge zone and what category zone you're in. For example, I'm in a Category 1 surge zone (pea green) meaning that my location could be under water with a direct or near direct hit from a Cat 1 storm. This map is only an approximation, and could vary with each storm, but gives an idea of the surveyed storm surge danger. Use it as part of your planning and preparation.

[seagrovegirl]

How many days do hurricanes take to pass through? We are supposed to leave early Saturday morning to drive to Miami for a cruise.

Once a storm is on us, it is gone in a day. You should be fine for Saturday. Happy cruising!!:D

[TooFarTampa]

I dont really understand this map. I found my location but I dont understand what the map is saying about my location. I live off Mack Bayou Rd in Driftwood Estates.
Thanks!!

Find your location on the map first. Then find what "color" you are in. The rule of thumb is:

Dk green = evacuate for tropical storm
Lighter green = evacuate for Cat 1
Yellow-green = evacuate for Cat 2
Light orange = evacuate for Cat 3
Darker orange = evacuate for Cat 4
Red = evacuate for Cat 5
White = not an evacuation zone

These are general guidelines only that relate to the likelihood that your property will be flooded, NOT whether you will be comfortable staying for a Category 1, 2, etc.

I agree that the map is very hard to read. I recall someone posting a better map in another thread. Does anyone know where a more detailed map can be found?

[jodiFL]

While I am keeping an eye on this storm, I am kinda waiting for it to get in the gulf before even tracking or preparing. The warm water in the gulf can cause them to do strange things and make erratic movements this late in the season.

[MissCritter]

How many days do hurricanes take to pass through? We are supposed to leave early Saturday morning to drive to Miami for a cruise.

I would contact the cruise line later this week. Although Miami should be fine, there may be some minor issues with your cruise destination(s) depending upon the storm's track.

[aleonard]

While I am keeping an eye on this storm, I am kinda waiting for it to get in the gulf before even tracking or preparing. The warm water in the gulf can cause them to do strange things and make erratic movements this late in the season.


I agree with Jodie. I've seen a few bump up against land and then get back in the gulf to make a second run.

[jackieh]

Okay so by looking at the map, I think we should evacuate if its a catagory 3 but we are very close to the catagory 1 or 2 color. Its hard to tell the difference between the colors of 1 and 2. Can anyone else tell? We are located in the triangle shaped bayside area near the water.

[jackieh]

I do agree though that it still seems a bit early to know whats going to happen. I just hope it doesnt come our way. Is it normal to have no electricity for weeks with a cat. 1 storm?

[Arkiehawg]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html#a_topad

Batten down the hatches.......we may be in for a blow!;-)

They keep shifting the models our way.......ugh..

[aleonard]

I do agree though that it still seems a bit early to know whats going to happen. I just hope it doesnt come our way. Is it normal to have no electricity for weeks with a cat. 1 storm?
Not normal..but then there is no normal with hurricanes. Ivan didn't hit us directly, but because of where it did hit,(west of us) we went without power for over a week. When Dennis came in....much smaller, but closer, I never lost power.

Best advice I can give you is to prepare for the worst (food, water and supplies) for at least a week, and hope you don't have to use any of them, if you don't evacuate.:wave:

[aleonard]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html#a_topad

Batten down the hatches.......we may be in for a blow!;-)

They keep shifting the models our way.......ugh..


I wonder if they are gonna keep shifting. Thanks for the update.

[Arkiehawg]

I wonder if they are gonna keep shifting. Thanks for the update.


My bet is yep......

She continues a WNW movement sliding south of Cuba and if she starts shifting N around the last 1/3 of Cuba, then I believe she will be hungry and looking for some BBQ at Jambone!

Disclaimer.....I'm not a wetterman nor eva' played one on the telly.....

Don't get spooked jest yet....

[PC]

The latest model runs keep shifting Fay west toward the panhandle.

[InletBchDweller]

I don't own one myself, but have thought about buying, and highly recommend to others, one of the small multifunctional radios, which has a flash light, radio, and one regular DC or AC outlet, which can be operated on batteries or hand cranked, user-generated. They could be great use if the power goes out and you are keeping tabs with ppl via text message, email via cell phone, or cell phone itself, if you are able to get a darn signal. Text messages will work best because they just sit in hold until a cell opens up, where the phone doesn't.

SJoe and others,
Try this website www.ccrane.com (http://www.ccrane.com) Mr. IBD has one of their radios and takes it everywhere with him. We actually laugh b/c it is like his security blanket. It also picks up WWL in SoWal skunky :wave:. They also have alot of other items that are good in bad weather/power outages....

generators will undergo full functionality test today...I don't care for that track! we did and one of ours has a problem...:bang:

[Smiling JOe]

Okay so by looking at the map, I think we should evacuate if its a catagory 3 but we are very close to the catagory 1 or 2 color. Its hard to tell the difference between the colors of 1 and 2. Can anyone else tell? We are located in the triangle shaped bayside area near the water.
jackieh, what you need to be aware of is the fact that a storm can go from a Tropical Storm to a Cat 3 Hurricane over night. So if anything is heading this way, it shouldn't matter if it is a TS or a Cat 5, because the chance to evacuate will slip by you when the bridges close, and that will be at least one day out, and a storm may still be a Tropical Storm, then BAM! you are F'd. I'd recommend that since you live in Driftwood, and the only road in or out, floods with heavy rain, get the heck out of Dodge while you can. Leave early and beat the crowds.

TFT, that link to the storm surge map timed out on me due to its large size. You can always go to WalCo's GIS map to see the storm surge layer over each parcel. Here is the link to that page (http://maps.geocortex.net/imf-5.1.002/sites/walton/jsp/launch.jsp). Storm surge layer is under the "emergency" file. When the layer pulls up, you can then click on "legend" to see what's what. The other maps stuff works as most others. There are many features on there and it can get a little tricky for novices.

[Smiling JOe]

by: JeffMasters (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), 4:38 PM EDT on August 17, 2008
www.weatherunderground.com

Tropical Storm Fay (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806.html) continues to look unimpressive as it tracks south of Cuba. Radar imagery from Punta del Este, Cuba (http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/02I.Juventud/pdeMAXw01a.gif) shows that the low-level spiral bands are sparse and poorly organized. Visible satellite loops (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html) show that heavy thunderstorm activity only surrounds about 1/3 of the center of the storm. Fay is in a moderately favorable wind shear environment, with upper-level winds from the west creating about 10 knots of wind shear. Upper level outflow is well-established only to the north and east. The highest surface winds found between 2pm and 4pm EDT by the latest Hurricane Hunter flight were 47 mph. However, the pressure is falling, and stood at 1003 mb at 3:11 pm EDT.

The forecast for Fay
Fay is gradually building an eyewall this afternoon, but probably does not have time to complete this process before crossing Cuba. This means that the storm will have to start this process all over again Monday morning, delaying intensification longer than the models had predicted.

The computer models (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html#a_topad) have come into better agreement, predicting that Fay will stay south of Cuba a bit longer and move further west than expected before turning northwest and crossing the island. This reduces the threat to Key West and Southwest Florida, but increases the threat to the Florida coast between Sarasota and the Florida Panhandle. This also increases the chances that Fay will hit Florida as a hurricane, since it will have more time over water.

The latest (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model puts Fay ashore Monday night near Sarasota as a Category 1 hurricane with a 976 mb pressure and 80-85 mph winds. The HWRF model foresees a landfall on Tuesday morning further north, past Cedar Key, and makes Fay a strong Category 2 hurricane with a 945 mb pressure and 110 mph winds. Both of these forecasts are probably too intense, given Fay's current state of disorganization. Only the ECMWF model is currently forecasting a motion all the way across the Florida Peninsula and out into the open Atlantic. This model then foresees a triple hit on Florida--motion back across Florida from east to west, followed by a third Florida landfall int he Panhandle. The UKMET and NOGAPS models continue to show a threat to the Florida Panhandle.

If Fay hits the Sarasota/Tampa Bay region, these are the kind of probabilities for intensity I'm thinking:

Tropical storm: 50%
Category 1 Hurricane: 35%
Category 2 hurricane: 10%
Category 3+ Hurricane: 5%

For a landfall further north in the Panhandle, my probabilities are:

Tropical storm: 35%
Category 1 Hurricane: 35%
Category 2 Hurricane: 20%
Category 3+ Hurricane: 10%

Links to follow
Wundermap (http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=22.7&lon=-80.9&zoom=7) for Cuba and the Florida Keys
Punta del Este, Cuba radar (http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/02I.Juventud/pdeMAXw01a.gif)
Key West, FL weather (http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=key%20west,%20fl&wuSelect=WEATHER)

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the reliable computer models are predicting development of a tropical wave currently located off the coast of Africa, just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system is expected to track west-northwest and be near or just north of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands 5-7 days from now.

I'll have an update Monday morning (or later this evening, if there's some significant development to report).

Jeff Masters

[Smiling JOe]

http://www.ccrane.com/images/medium/cc-observer-wind-up-radio-black.jpg (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:%20popUpZoomImage%287603%29;) http://www.ccrane.com/radios/wind-up-emergency-radios/cc-observer-wind-up-emergency-radio.aspx $49.95 (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:FREEShippingPopUpWindow%28%29)
Item # COB Out of Stock.
Due 09/02/08That figures. Out of stock!


http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_model.gif
Here is the latest models map. It has been changing quite a bit, so I thought I'd update this page.

[MissCritter]

In other words, as of now no one knows where this one's headed. :lolabove:

[Smiling JOe]

egg-zachery! too early to know. be prepared just in case.

[Bob]

my generator functionality test may have moved the storm west for now...sorry

[MissCritter]

my generator functionality test may have moved the storm west for now...sorry

Gee, thanks! :biggrin:

[30A Skunkape]

:blink:

[TreeFrog]

8PM EDT model runs are now posted up at www.wunderground.com/tropical. Note that SJ's post #105 appears to have updated to the current runs.

The tracks are still widely spread, but all of them have shifted eastward. The 11 PM EDT forecast from the NHC is still straight up the west coast of the peninsula. They continue to expect the turn northward to happen more aggressively than NOGAPS predicts.

Although we all wish for something more definitive, it looks like we've got to wait to late tomorrow for the models to begin to converge. At that time, Fay should be clear of Cuba and the Hurricane Hunters will have made a pass through, which in turn will reflect in the 8 PM EDT model runs. If we're lucky, they'll get something in time for the 2 PM runs, which typically show up online around 4 PM our time.

[TooFarTampa]

:blink:

Yeah, and :bang:

my generator functionality test may have moved the storm west for now...sorry

Revenge for Charley? :angry:

[Bobby J]

This one is starting to get me thinking. I have to admit, pretty excited about getting some surf but I am not liking the path this one seems to be taking.:bang:

Still early but a lot of warm water ahead for this storm!

[TooFarTampa]

This one is starting to get me thinking. I have to admit, pretty excited about getting some surf but I am not liking the path this one seems to be taking.:bang:

Still early but a lot of warm water ahead for this storm!

No yapping about the surf! It's bad karma! :wave:

[surfdog]

where faye travels across cuba is the bottom line to the effect of the week ahead of us. let us all remember,..storms are like funerals,..they tend to bring out the best and worst in people,...be a good neighbor and shine on....

[30A Skunkape]

Looks like they are predicting a strike south of Tampa now.

[30ashopper]

I'm beginning to wonder if this little guy will even make it back to hurricane status. That last big jog to the north seems to have caught all the models by surprise. Any more of that and it'll be making landfall over the keys as a tropical storm.

[BeachSiO2]

From what I am reading, it is still south of Tampa and at most will be a minimal cat 1 at landfall.

[NotDeadYet]

Early on, Dr Masters of Weather Underground nicknamed Fay "The Joker." Seems he was right - this one is a real forecasting nightmare. :shock:
I see they have found 60mph winds this morning. Landfall sooner rather than later would be the best case. I hope you are right, BeachSiO2.

[BeachSiO2]

Early on, Dr Masters of Weather Underground nicknamed Fay "The Joker." Seems he was right - this one is a real forecasting nightmare. :shock:
I see they have found 60mph winds this morning. Landfall sooner rather than later would be the best case. I hope you are right, BeachSiO2.

My peeps have been saying the same thing since late Friday/early Saturday and they are usually pretty good. I'll make sure and post if they change anything.

[greenroomsurfer]

Here is the next one rolling off the coast of Africa. Seeing how most Auburn graduates did not do well in geography and they need peeps it's all the way over on the left!:floor::biggrin::clap::idontno::wub: Here is the on SJ mentioned. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html Several of the reliable computer models are predicting development of a tropical wave currently located off the coast of Africa, just south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system is expected to track west-northwest and be near or just north of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands 5-7 days from now

[bluemtnrunner]

My brother and sister are just south of Tampa and trying to figure what to do at this point. don't want to head north, south or east...West is not an option. It doesn't look like evacuation will be necessary, just a battening down of the hatches.
We are spending the morning bringing in the kayaks, tables, chairs, etc. Looking at the trees for dead branches.

:yikes:MILK......BREAD.....beer!!!!! Milk is on sale right now for under $4 a gallon by the way.

[Smiling JOe]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_model.gif

For some reason, the other model maps didn't update on SoWal, so here is this morning's models map. Those lines are still all over the place.

[Smiling JOe]

My brother and sister are just south of Tampa and trying to figure what to do at this point. don't want to head north, south or east...West is not an option. It doesn't look like evacuation will be necessary, just a battening down of the hatches.
We are spending the morning bringing in the kayaks, tables, chairs, etc. Looking at the trees for dead branches.

:yikes:MILK......BREAD.....beer!!!!! Milk is on sale right now for under $4 a gallon by the way.
Rule number something in hurricane preparedness: eat all of your frozen foods now. Don't buy more food products which need refrigeration. Powdered milk works well enough for a few days, if you require milk. Buy ready to eat products, have a manual can-opener. Buy regular bleach for water purification and buy some Handi-wipes for cleaning hands without water. If you have access to some empty or filled 5 gallon bottled water containers, grab them, and use them if the storm approaches. They are very handy and pour fairly well. Fill your bathtubs (make sure the stoppers work well) with water just prior to storm for additional supply of water. You will want to make sure to thoroughly clean said bathtubs. ;-) You could also use that water for flushing toilets. Flush conservatively, because your sump pump won't pump when the power is out.

[scooterbug44]

What's with the mad rush to the grocery? If items are truly "staples" you should have them on hand ALL the time, not just when a storm is expected! :idontno:

[Smiling JOe]

my emergency kit is different than my usual staples. My emergency foods don't require refrigeration, and only minimum cooking, which I can do with propane stove or alcohol and a steel pineapple can. For ppl stocking up on bread, maybe they typically wait until they are close to being out before buying more, but with a storm on the way, they want to be sure to have some.

[MissCritter]

Those lines are still all over the place.


But none over our area, thank God!

[Smiling JOe]

Well, that map shows only 8 of the models and they change them up (don't know why). For example, the NOGAPS model has been pointing at PC area quite a bit, but now it isn't on that most recent model map.

[scooterbug44]

The models I am seeing show that we will be on the left (west) side of a storm that will be a 1 or less.

I always keep a small stock of yummy food that either doesn't need refrigeration or can be cooked w/ gas, but IMO extreme situations call for a evacucation, not armageddon style supplies! :wave:

[Smiling JOe]

i hear you and agree.

[InletBchDweller]

Mr. IBD has us supplied with MRE's. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MRE) :roll: Not my choice of cuisine but I guess if it came down to it...

[Smiling JOe]

MRE = Meals Refused by Ethiopians. Had to eat them on a mountaineering excursion I did with the Army one time. Better than eating crickets and grubs, so its all relative. Tip number ? for emergency food items -- do not supply it with Oreos or other tasty food, b/c you will eat it way too fast and may run out of food. Stock it with nasty, but edible food, like MREs, and you are guaranteed to stretch them out.

[scooterbug44]

You can do SO much better than MRE's! :puke:

One of my staples is jarred salmon - straight from the fishery in Alaska so it keeps for up to a year and makes a quick lunch or appetizer when served w/ crackers and fresh fruit.

[InletBchDweller]

trust me, I dont like them, if you only new my husband (SJ you do:roll:) he is Mr. "failing to prepare is preparing to fail" guy. He actually got excited b/c the last box had jambalaya and etoufee with little bottles of Tobasco. :D

We always have plenty of propane so we cook quite a bit on the grill. The MRE's have (thankfully) just sat in their box while we feasted on what is in the freezer.


MRE = Meals Refused by Ethiopians. Had to eat them on a mountaineering excursion I did with the Army one time. Better than eating crickets and grubs, so its all relative. Tip number ? for emergency food items -- do not supply it with Oreos or other tasty food, b/c you will eat it way too fast and may run out of food. Stock it with nasty, but edible food, like MREs, and you are guaranteed to stretch them out.

You can do SO much better than MRE's! :puke:

One of my staples is jarred salmon - straight from the fishery in Alaska so it keeps for up to a year and makes a quick lunch or appetizer when served w/ crackers and fresh fruit.

[30A Skunkape]

If you want some haute cuisine while hunkered down... http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5449979

[beachmouse]

One thing about models is that not all of them work well in all circumstances. According to the Storm 2K crowd, you can usually disregard the BAM models for this area- they were designed for and are most accurate when forecasting storms deep in the tropics and don't handle interaction with the North American landmass very well.

CLIP doesn't really work with current data at all- it's a description of what happened in the past with other storms of similar strength in a similar location. (It's included as a sort of error-check in a lot of model packages- if you're getting weirder results than CLIP, then you might be getting bad data or something)

[TreeFrog]

One thing about models is that not all of them work well in all circumstances. According to the Storm 2K crowd, you can usually disregard the BAM models for this area- they were designed for and are most accurate when forecasting storms deep in the tropics and don't handle interaction with the North American landmass very well.

CLIP doesn't really work with current data at all- it's a description of what happened in the past with other storms of similar strength in a similar location. (It's included as a sort of error-check in a lot of model packages- if you're getting weirder results than CLIP, then you might be getting bad data or something)

Have a look at Jeff Masters' review of the models, at:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp

At the time he wrote this (2005), none of the individual models were able to outperform the NHC official forecast in track prediction.

He updated the review 8-17-07. You'll have to scroll well down the archive, it has the whole month of August.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?tstamp=200708

To grossly summarize his comments, the top ones at track prediction are GDFL, GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET, with HWRF as a new addition. Of the models that attempt to consolidate a consensus result, Florida State Superensemble is the best.

[TooFarTampa]

If you want some haute cuisine while hunkered down... http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5449979

One thing about models is that not all of them work well in all circumstances. According to the Storm 2K crowd, you can usually disregard the BAM models for this area- they were designed for and are most accurate when forecasting storms deep in the tropics and don't handle interaction with the North American landmass very well.

CLIP doesn't really work with current data at all- it's a description of what happened in the past with other storms of similar strength in a similar location. (It's included as a sort of error-check in a lot of model packages- if you're getting weirder results than CLIP, then you might be getting bad data or something)

The collective intelligence on this site is just one reason to love SoWal.com. :clap:

[InletBchDweller]

The collective intelligence on this site is just one reason to love SoWal.com. :clap:
I was trying to quote you but thanked you but that is ok. Yes, isn't it funny how we come to SoWal for information when we could just Google it. :D

[Wanda]

How ironic that a State Farm Insurance ad appears on the Wunderground map tracking Fay across Florida.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_5day.html#a_topad

[Smiling JOe]

I don't know why they would waste such money advertising to a base of Florida users since they won't even insure here.

[beachmouse]

Of the models that attempt to consolidate a consensus result, Florida State Superensemble is the best.

I just wish they'd release the FSU Superensemble results to the public. (The people who run that model only share results with the NHC and paid subscribers) It's like the Elvis Lives! of hurricane modeling- everyone's heard of it, and it's reported to still be a heckava rock star, but very few people actually get to see it.

[Biff]

:DAnd when you goggle it; SoWal usually hits on the top rankings:D



I was trying to quote you but thanked you but that is ok. Yes, isn't it funny how we come to SoWal for information when we could just Google it. :D

[Biff]

:DAnd when you goggle it; SoWal usually hits on the top rankings:D

Hence;

Goggle Hurricane SoWal--


Hurricane Season...Are you Ready? - SoWal.com Forum (http://www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=891)

Jul 25, 2005 ... Camp Creek Kid, All About SoWal, 12, 06-28-2005 02:25 PM. Hurricane Season Has Arrived (Arlene Info), Joe, All About SoWal ...
www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=891 - 154k - Cached (http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:kqirfVe5tTIJ:www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php%3Ft%3D891+hurricane+info+SoWal&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us) - Similar pages (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-43,GGLG:en&q=related:www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=891)

September 13 - Hurricane Party at the Red Bar!! - SoWal.com Forum (http://www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=25827)

visit www.cvhnkids.org (http://www.cvhnkids.org) for more information ... Hurricane Season...Are you Ready? JC, All About SoWal, 19, 07-25-2005 09:58 AM ...
www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=25827 - 51k - Cached (http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:0Drn1L8oSCcJ:www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php%3Ft%3D25827+hurricane+info+SoWal&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us) - Similar pages (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-43,GGLG:en&q=related:www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=25827)
More results from www.sowal.com » (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-43,GGLG:en&q=+site:www.sowal.com+hurricane+info+SoWal)

[Beachbummett]

Looks like Nohall, GTTBM, BR and others will be getting some rain! Even better news is it looks like it will remain a tropical storm and not reach hurricane strength.

from last update

[Beach Runner]

Looks like Nohall, GTTBM, BR and others will be getting some rain! Even better news is it looks like it will remain a tropical storm and not reach hurricane strength.

Nothing like a few adult beverages in the hot tub in the rain. Pepper and I will be at the beach from Friday until Labor Day.

Ironically we have functional hurricane shutters at our home in Georgia (the architect wanted to make the house an authentic Louisiana plantation home), but not at the beach. Go figure.

Actually we needed those hurricane shutters during Hurricane Opal in 1995. Those shutters really saved us. It was also my first year in Junior League, and we conducted our annual attic sale fundraiser with no power. We didn't have power at home for a week. Had to rent a motel room by I-85 to take a hot shower since our water heater is electric.

[full time]

Some of the more reliable models are now showing Fay retrograding from the Atlantic back across Florida and into the Gulf south of Fla/Alabama line this weekend as a strengthening storm. The weather guy on Chanel 7 seemed to think it was rather plausible and that the hurricane center was likely to make significant changes to the forecast track tomorrow. Something to watch during the week.

[yippie]

This is a great story about Sea Turtles and Hurricane Fay. I admire these people, as I admire our turtle watchers here!

http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/weather/2008/08/18/lowe.fl.fay.sea.turtles.wsvn

[30A Skunkape]

Looks like we are going to have a wet weekend. I guess we need the rain.

[Smiling JOe]

Fishing will be good. Those fish know when the storms are coming and they like to fee heavily before their environment gets all stirred up and thrown about. Expect good fishing from now through a few days after the storm passes.

[Franny]

Canuck caught a pompano off Grayton on Sunday!!



Fishing will be good. Those fish know when the storms are coming and they like to fee heavily before their environment gets all stirred up and thrown about. Expect good fishing from now through a few days after the storm passes.

[BeachSiO2]

"Hey watch this."

Link to a future Darwin award >>>>nominee<<<< (http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid823425597/bclid877032950/bctid1739970513)

[DuneLaker]

I saw that earlier on TWC. But, amazing to watch again. Sorry for that dude and hope he recovers, but incredible that he didn't use extra caution with any type of storm approaching. It put people on the ground in danger as well as himself. Sort of like going in the Gulf on a double red flag day. By the way, anyone know where Fay is heading now?

[Beach Runner]

Fay is Fay. Who knows what direction she'll go? Looks like she's gonna bite FL multiple times according to the maps. Hit http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html and scroll down.

[jdarg]

Fay is Fay. Who knows what direction she'll go? Looks like she's gonna bite FL multiple times according to the maps. Hit http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_model.html and scroll down.


OMG!!!:floor:How many times has it changed???

[Beach Runner]

OMG!!!:floor:How many times has it changed???
C'est moi.

[Miss Kitty]

Canuck caught a pompano off Grayton on Sunday!!

:clap:...tell the Canuck, EH! for me! Canadians are wonderful people!

[DuneLaker]

Thanks, BeachRunner. Looks like anyone who lives in Birmingham or Montgomery might as well just come on down to SoWal.

[InletBchOwnr]

Since we don't reside in the area and rely on the weather channels, NOAA and a host of other weather forecasts and models, we keep a close eye on any TD, TS or hurricane weather coming that way. We are actually about 300 yds from water and below the dune crests and a natural area, somewhat protected. No reports of damage from other hits has been recorded (home built in 2000), so we worry and wait and watch and wonder what we might do or who we might rely on for assistance in weatherizing our place while we are gone. Any sugestions?

[BeachSiO2]

Thanks, BeachRunner. Looks like anyone who lives in Birmingham or Montgomery might as well just come on down to SoWal.

:wave: I wouldn't be so sure quite yet, it could still be an interesting weekend in Sowal.

[greenroomsurfer]

What have I been telling you people all along?????:bang::bang::bang:

[DuneLaker]

Oh, certainly not sure,yet. What I meant was that looking at all the options, it looks like it could just as easily go through Montgomery or Birmingham as SoWal. Given those chances, I'd just as soon be in SoWal. Upland seems to suffer more from flooding from this type of storm than the beach areas. Guess that good ol' sand drains better than clay.

[ShallowsNole]

My evacuation place is in Dothan. Jason Kelley just drew a line through Dothan. :angry:

And y'all who have kids in Tallahassee, tell them to hunker down and do NOT take any side streets (or main streets, for that matter). Tennessee Street is known to flood, and several years ago a young man in a small Kia got washed into a storm drain in Frenchtown and his drowned body was pulled from his car south of the stadium. It would be a good idea for them to stock up and stay out of the bars this week / weekend.

[winddancer]

Wow...looks like Im in for a LOT of rain come Saturday..Im right below Florala...arrgh!!! Pouring here as I type...guess I can go stand at the window and watch my fresh mowed grass grow a few more inches, lol.

[winddancer]

Oh...and by the way...DONT buy those green water storage containers from Walmart. I bought three of them last year and two of the three are leaking. Of course they wont exchange them...silly me, what was I thinking??? I patched them with shoe goo, lol..so far so good but dont think they'll last for anything but short-term storage.

[DuneLaker]

Our sons house in Tallahassee while he was at FSU had water in it. Ruined their furniture, computers, etc.

[30ashopper]

Looks like Georgia's going to get some serious rain from this thing, and we might get a little as well.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0608W5_sm2+gif/223231W_sm.gif

[30ashopper]

eek, we're not out of the woods yet -

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_model.gif

[Biff]

Just heard it was going to be directed straight to Destin:idontno:

OH SAY ITS NOT SO:bang::bang::bang::bang:



Arrrgggggggggg:angry:

[greenroomsurfer]

Hey Nohall start evacuating and come here or start building an Ark!!!!:floor::funn::lol::biggrin::wub:

[Minnie]

I think this Fay is a very fickle hurricane; looks like alot of us might be affected.

[Cil]

My evacuation place is in Dothan. Jason Kelley just drew a line through Dothan. :angry:

And y'all who have kids in Tallahassee, tell them to hunker down and do NOT take any side streets (or main streets, for that matter). Tennessee Street is known to flood, and several years ago a young man in a small Kia got washed into a storm drain in Frenchtown and his drowned body was pulled from his car south of the stadium. It would be a good idea for them to stock up and stay out of the bars this week / weekend.

Noles
I cut-and-pasted this for my kid. He is actually a good kid, way better than his big brother was, but still. I am kinda freaked out about this whole thing. In some ways it's the waiting around that makes it worse than actually dealing with it.

[jdarg]

Noles
I cut-and-pasted this for my kid. He is actually a good kid, way better than his big brother was, but still. I am kinda freaked out about this whole thing. In some ways it's the waiting around that makes it worse than actually dealing with it.

Stay safe on the east coast!

This Fay is crazy stuff! But I have a new BFF- Dr. Jeff Masters. I LOVE his blog- he has great style, even if he is only discussing the weather!

[NoHall]

Looks like Georgia's going to get some serious rain from this thing, and we might get a little as well.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0608W5_sm2+gif/223231W_sm.gif

:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

Hey Nohall start evacuating and come here or start building an Ark!!!!:floor::funn::lol::biggrin::wub:

EVACUATE?! If we get the 15" I heard about today, I'll send you the pictures of me dancing in it! :clap: (And I'm an excellent swimmer, so no worries.)

Besides that, my neighbor has no less than 4 large boats in his yard. I'm good.

I am praying for mercy for my friends in Florida, though...

[greenroomsurfer]

You got your wish all at one time!:idontno:

[TreeFrog]

Stay safe on the east coast!

This Fay is crazy stuff! But I have a new BFF- Dr. Jeff Masters. I LOVE his blog- he has great style, even if he is only discussing the weather!

Jeff Masters is THE MAN.

He will tell you the stuff that the talking heads on TWC don't even have a clue about, without all the sensationalism.

But, he'll get direct when he needs to. He called the need to evacuate NO for Katrina on Wednesday. It struck Saturday. On Wed., everyone else was sitting there with their thumb up their @#$ going "Oh, it's coming to the east of NO so we're OK".

[TooFarTampa]

Jeff Masters is THE MAN.

He will tell you the stuff that the talking heads on TWC don't even have a clue about, without all the sensationalism.

But, he'll get direct when he needs to. He called the need to evacuate NO for Katrina on Wednesday. It struck Saturday. On Wed., everyone else was sitting there with their thumb up their @#$ going "Oh, it's coming to the east of NO so we're OK".

I love him. I love how he started calling this storm the Joker way before it really started acting like an insane terrorist. :blink: I respect him so much that when I talk about his forecasts to Mr. TFT I call him "Dr. Masters."

"Let's see what Dr. Masters says."
"Dr. Masters will explain it."
"Dr. Masters said this thing is going back to the Gulf of Mexico.":shock:

[Beach Runner]

Stay safe on the east coast!

This Fay is crazy stuff! But I have a new BFF- Dr. Jeff Masters. I LOVE his blog- he has great style, even if he is only discussing the weather!
Jeff Masters is great. He's been bookmarked on my laptop for years, thanks to hubby's recommendation. But hubby now likes crownweather.com better.

[30ashopper]

I love him. I love how he started calling this storm the Joker way before it really started acting like an insane terrorist. :blink: I respect him so much that when I talk about his forecasts to Mr. TFT I call him "Dr. Masters."

"Let's see what Dr. Masters says."
"Dr. Masters will explain it."
"Dr. Masters said this thing is going back to the Gulf of Mexico.":shock:

That is a serious concern for sure. I don't think I've ever seen a storm rake the panhandle or worse, trott along 100 miles south of the beach. I'm paying more attention now than ever before.

[30ashopper]

Here we go folks, she's about to step off the 'island'. Lets all hope for the best.

[TreeFrog]

Is it just me, or is something goofy at Wunderground? As of 6:30AM, the models are still all showing the plots from 2:00 PM EDT yesterday.

I'm going to start Googling, but does anyone know another good source for the models?

[NotDeadYet]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_1964 5022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[pgurney]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/

[greenroomsurfer]

Wanker storm!!!!!! We will get jack squat for surf from this system. Texas is overdue and we need some surf. Maybe this storm will go back into the gulf and give us some swell. Sorry Miss Kitty but when you evacuate you know what I want.:wub::wub::wub:

[Miss Kitty]

Wanker storm!!!!!! We will get jack squat for surf from this system. Texas is overdue and we need some surf. Maybe this storm will go back into the gulf and give us some swell. Sorry Miss Kitty but when you evacuate you know what I want.:wub::wub::wub:

wtf???? Hasn't TX been hit twice already??? :roll: No Pappasito's for you!

[Beachbummett]

Hopefully it will stay a just a tropical depression. Pray hard.

I have lived through tropical storms in our Seagrove house, no big deal, just lots of wind and rain. We never even lost power in those. We did have a lot of wind driven rain, the house moaned and groaned at about 2:00 a.m. when I was there by myself during one. :blink:

* Make sure everything outdoors is secure, garbage cans, furniture, anything that can get blown around.

* Watch windows and doors for wind driven rain intrusion.
(We had water come in around our third floor french doors that faced the gulf, we had those re-stripped and they are fine now.)

Hang on tight! It can be interesting.

Oh, just ask Bobby J, now is a grayt time to go look at property during/after an event to see what it does, you will know if it floods.

[Smiling JOe]

Is it just me, or is something goofy at Wunderground? As of 6:30AM, the models are still all showing the plots from 2:00 PM EDT yesterday.

I'm going to start Googling, but does anyone know another good source for the models?

Post # 168 shows the models map being updated with the 8am EasternTime models.

From what I'm hearing, they are expecting the east/west lines of the models to drift farther south, and maybe sweep us on the coast. One model even shows it going over water in the Gulf, gaining strength, stalling south of Louisiana, then making a NW dart for Destin. :yikes: The weather looks lovely here, today, but don't wait around until the last minute to be planning.

[Smiling JOe]

Don't forget about Invest 94 (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200894_model.html), which is brewing in the Atlantic, which models show coming our way.

[BeachSiO2]

As of right now, my new update is that it will pass north of Sowal by about 20-25 miles. There will be no re-entry over water, and the maximum sustained wind speeds you would see is around 30mph for a few hours around midnight on Saturday night. This is just the latest guesstimate but seems reasonable.

[Smiling JOe]

Look out Defuniak!

[BeachSiO2]

Look out Defuniak!

Let's not get too excited. Like I said it just seems like its going to be "a little" windy and rainy, not even a tropical depression.

[Smiling JOe]

We are holding you to it!

[BeachSiO2]

We are holding you to it!

And this is why I don't come 'round these parts much ;-)

[Smiling JOe]

You know I'm kidding. We appreciate the insider information, and know the forecast prediction isn't coming from Mother Nature herself.

[aleonard]

Look out Defuniak!

Let's not get too excited. Like I said it just seems like its going to be "a little" windy and rainy, not even a tropical depression.


:shock:
I'll report Sunday morning if I'm still here.:biggrin:

[aggieb]

:shock:
I'll report Sunday morning if I'm still here.:biggrin:
you're always missing.:lol:

:wave:i miss my fb friend.

[NotDeadYet]

We appreciate the insider informationI would be curious exactly what "insider" information is as it pertains to weather. :confused:

I am aware of paid weather service forecasting, which is only available to those who pay, and some experimental stuff. But beyond that, what would be the point of keeping weather info secret?? There is a ton of stuff available on the internet from govt agencies, universities, etc. Check out the links that show up on the Weather Underground tropical blog. If you know where to look, there is almost too much info to sift through. Isn't that what the paid forecasters get paid to do, sift through the available data? :idontno:

[BeachSiO2]

I would be curious exactly what "insider" information is as it pertains to weather. :confused:

I am aware of paid weather service forecasting, which is only available to those who pay, and some experimental stuff. But beyond that, what would be the point of keeping weather info secret?? There is a ton of stuff available on the internet from govt agencies, universities, etc. Check out the links that show up on the Weather Underground tropical blog. If you know where to look, there is almost too much info to sift through. Isn't that what the paid forecasters get paid to do, sift through the available data? :idontno:

It's a paid service.

[enfuego]

Insider or outsiders, here is information that is rather timeless and helpful...
Residents in north-central and northeast Florida should closely follow the movement of Fay and monitor their local media outlets for the most current information and guidance
from officials in their area.

A NOAA Weather Alert radio can be a lifesaver especially during the overnight periods.
Stay safe by staying indoors. Wait until officials give the "all-clear" before venturing outside or returning to your home. Watch for fallen power lines around standing water.
Flooding conditions persist across the state. If you approach a flooded roadway while driving, remember turnaround, don’t drown. It only takes a few feet of water to knock most cars off the road.
Beachgoers, swimmers and surfers, (and kite surfers... ) should heed red flag warnings and stay out of the water as deadly rip currents, rough surf conditions continue along the Atlantic coast
Mariners should heed small-craft warnings and remain in port.
Carbon monoxide is deadly. Residents should use caution when operating portable generators during a storm. Generators should be used outdoors. (1 Storm-related fatality reported in Highlands County due to improper use of portable generators)
Because of the uncertainty of the forecast and flooding potential, all Floridians in the watch and warning areas, North Florida, and Big Bend regions should be prepared to take action as directed by authorities.
Plan to be a survivor by taking common sense measures to protect your family and property as Fay treks across Florida.
As our state responds to Tropical Storm Fay, we commend our residents and visitors for their vigilance and thank all local responders and emergency officials for their commitment to public service.
The Governor has declared a State of Emergency and has issued an Executive Order as of Saturday afternoon. The State Emergency Operations Center remains at a Level 1 activation which is a full activation to support county operations in advanceof Tropical Storm Fay.
The Florida Emergency Information Line has been activated. Residents can call 1-800-342-3557 from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. for more information on Tropical Storm Fay.
If your family does not have a plan, go to www.floridadisaster.org (outbind://203/www.floridadisaster.org) today andcreate a family disaster plan. All residents are urged to Get A Plan!

[Beachbummett]

Latest from wunderground:

[Hop]

Don't forget about Invest 94 (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200894_model.html), which is brewing in the Atlantic, which models show coming our way.

i'm showing my ignorance here...but hey, we're all family right? Why is it called "Invest" 94?:idontno:

[TreeFrog]

For those who'd like to learn more about the hurricane models, NHC has a detailed writeup at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

It's way more technical than Jeff Masters' summary on Wunderground, but there is some interesting stuff that will help you compare the various model plots.

[TreeFrog]

i'm showing my ignorance here...but hey, we're all family right? Why is it called "Invest" 94?:idontno:

Because it's an area NHC is "Invest"igating for possible development.

And the numbers are always Ninety-something, don't ask me why. So there can be multiple 92s in a given hurricane season, but only one 92 at at time.

[Arkiehawg]

Tallahassee NWS:

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODELS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE GUIDANCE TAKES FAY
ON YET ANOTHER LEG ACROSS LAND...THIS TIME NORTH FL. A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TAKES THE
CENTER OF FAY INTO APALACHEE BAY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS TRACK
WOULD BE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE 15 UTC NHC TRACK...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
IT IS POSSIBLE FAY COULD STRENGTHEN BACK INTO A TROPICAL STORM
(ASSUMING IT WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER NORTH FL) FRIDAY IF IT
MOVES FAR ENOUGH OUT OVER THE GULF...BUT WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE
ENOUGH TIME TO STRENGTHEN MUCH. WE STILL THINK THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH WE DO NEED THE
RAIN. THE FOLLOWING ARE A FEW FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

TALLAHASSEE FL.......6 TO 8 INCHES
DOTHAN AL............3 TO 5 INCHES
ALBANY GA............2 TO 4 INCHES
VALDOSTA GA..........3 TO 5 INCHES
CROSS CITY FL........8 TO 11 INCHES
PANAMA CITY FL.......6 TO 8 INCHES

OF COURSE...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW
THE STRUCTURE OF CHANGES. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF FAY MAINTAINS A HEALTHY WIND CORE.

[Smiling JOe]

Other areas, like the Pacific Ocean, use different Invest #s, so I'm guessing that the regions of the world are assigned unique numbers.

[jdarg]

Looks like I need to dig out the umbrellas, raincoats, boots, buckets- what else do we need for a lot of rain?

[BeachSiO2]

Looks like I need to dig out the umbrellas, raincoats, boots, buckets- what else do we need for a lot of rain?

I would agree with this, and you should always have a couple of tarps ready in case you spring a leak from a falling tree branch. As of this morning's guesstimate, it looks like you are getting a visitor on Sat. night.

[Smiling JOe]

Jdarg, umbrellas are useless, and dangerous, with 40mph wind.

Tarps -- I have a few, but they always manage to get holes in them. Small diameter cord is also needed to help hold said tarps in place, and duct tape is always good to have on hand.

BeachSi02, any more southern projection path from your guys, yet? I see NOAA has brought their projection path more to the south, right over SoWal. If that storm gets over water in the big bend, the entire Panhandle could be in for a real doozie.

[Smiling JOe]

Jdarg, swimsuits are a must for mucho rain, as are warm towels. Please remember that if you go out during or AFTER the storm, take close inspection of your surroundings. Most people get injured after the storms, because they don't take notice of potential safety hazards, such as downed power lines, dangling limbs, those hard green pine cones, etc. Always take FULL notice of your surroundings before venturing out. Bike helmets, for venturing into a yard with those big green pinecones, are a must!

[jdarg]

Jdarg, swimsuits are a must for mucho rain, as are warm towels. Please remember that if you go out during or AFTER the storm, take close inspection of your surroundings. Most people get injured after the storms, because they don't take notice of potential safety hazards, such as downed power lines, dangling limbs, those hard green pine cones, etc. Always take FULL notice of your surroundings before venturing out. Bike helmets, for venturing into a yard with those big green pinecones, are a must!

There must be a story about big green pinecones?

I am more concerned that our yard will look and sound like that movie filmed at Eden- 'Frogs". Last November, when we had 15 inches in the rain gauge, and last February, when we had 11 or 12 inches, the whole neighborhood was Frogtown. The ground was literally moving. The noise was deafening!

[Cheering472]

Jdarg, swimsuits are a must for mucho rain, as are warm towels. Please remember that if you go out during or AFTER the storm, take close inspection of your surroundings. Most people get injured after the storms, because they don't take notice of potential safety hazards, such as downed power lines, dangling limbs, those hard green pine cones, etc. Always take FULL notice of your surroundings before venturing out. Bike helmets, for venturing into a yard with those big green pinecones, are a must!

Jdarg all this sounds like alot of trouble and that helmet won't do anything for your reputation, not to mention style. Pack up and come home, bring everyone with you I have room.

[BeachSiO2]

BeachSi02, any more southern projection path from your guys, yet? I see NOAA has brought their projection path more to the south, right over SoWal. If that storm gets over water in the big bend, the entire Panhandle could be in for a real doozie.

As of early this morning, it was Sowal too but no offshore strengthening. It had 20-25mph sustained winds starting Sat afternoon/evening. A new update will be up in a few hours. I'll make sure and post.

[bluemtnrunner]

I have to go BACK to Publix because the kids went through all of the milk and bread that I bought for the original storm track!!!!

I do have out all of my gear from Alaska....Xtra Tuff Boots (the kind seen on deadliest catch). Awesome impermeable raincoat from the Elfin Cove Lodge, waterproof Alaska Pale Ale ball cap.... I think I need a case of Alaska Pale Ale and I'll be set.

[scooterbug44]

My Alaska Ale hat isn't waterproof, but should help protect my noggin in case my squirrels rebel like Sj's and start flinging the nuts! :rofl:

[Cheering472]

Florida squirrels sound scary. Our squirrels are non-commando up here. It seems like you all have Al Qaida squirrels.

I don't trust any of them, calm or aggressive, as they are a rat with a fluffy tail.

[Cork On the Ocean]

Just heard it was going to be directed straight to Destin:idontno:

OH SAY ITS NOT SO:bang::bang::bang::bang:



Arrrgggggggggg:angry:

Don't worry baby. It's a tropical storm, not a hurricane. We'll have a bit of rain and light winds but I haven't seen any predictions that it was gonna even become a Cat 1. We might have fewer beach days for visitors. On the east end our elevations are so high, I'd be surprised if we had any significant flooding. I'm thankful that it's not a bad one :D

[beachmouse]

Also, a lot of the area is relatively sandy and drains pretty well in most places outside the usual suspects. (*cough* Driftwood *cough*) When we got 30 inches of rain in 48 hours a couple years back from a springtime stalled front, there really wasn't much in terms of long term damage or lasting effects.

[NotDeadYet]

what else do we need for a lot of rain?

MELBOURNE, Fla. -- Homeowners in a Tropical Storm Fay-flooded community were being warned of an alligator swimming in their streets and near homes as record-breaking rain continued to fall Thursday.
http://www.local6.com/weather/17244086/detail.html

Something to shoot the gators? ;-)

[jdarg]

The SoWallers with fancy cameras need to record the "day before the storm"- it is absolutely beautiful at t