Hurricane Dolly

[tropicwatch]

Tropical Storm Dolly formed just south east of the Yucatan Peninsula today and is moving north west and is expected to make it into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Right now it looks like south Texas will have to watch this one closely.

Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info)

[Franny]

Whew, all I saw was the tar at first and then noticed it said Hurricane Andrew!:yikes:

[tropicwatch]

LOL, it is just an awesome sat pic!

[TooFarTampa]

Awesome is right. :shock:

[Smiling JOe]

I read on Dr Master's blog that they expect another storm coming off the coast of Africa in the next 3-4 days.

[sowalgayboi]

Maybe the EOC can start distributing Xanex. :eek:

[Smiling JOe]

They may be keeping it for themselves.

[Smiling JOe]

http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/wu2/headerBlue-left.gif Dolly a significant threat to Texas http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/wu2/headerBlue-right.gif http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/wu2/subBlue-left.gif http://icons-pe.wxug.com/graphics/wu2/subBlue-right.gif Posted by: JeffMasters (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), 9:50 AM EDT on July 21, 2008 www.weatherunderground.com


Tropical Storm Dolly (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200804.html) has emerged over the Gulf of Mexico after a short passage over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and is already beginning to organize. Dolly will potentially be a dangerous hurricane for Texas and northern Mexico. Satellite loops (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html) show a large and expanding circulation, with good upper-level outflow developing to the west and north. The surface circulation is not well formed yet. Dolly's intense thunderstorms lie mainly to the north of the center, and these thunderstorms brought heavy rains of 4-6" to the Cayman Islands yesterday. Dolly's heaviest rains passed through the Yucatan Channel last night and this morning. Rainfall amounts were less than four inches over Cancun, Cozumel, and Western Cuba. Winds were only 40-50 mph over this region, so there should have been little damage.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200804_sat.jpg
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Dolly.

The intensity forecast
The upper-level low that interfered with Dolly for so long has now moved away and weakened, and is no longer an issue. Wind shear over Dolly is essentially zero, and expected to remain below five knots over the next 2-3 days. Dolly will be over waters of 28-29°C. These SSTs are slightly below average for this time of year, but plenty warm enough to support Dolly intensifying into a hurricane before landfall. These warm waters extend to a moderate depth, with a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential of about 40 kJ/cm**2. This is below the value of 80 usually associated with rapid intensification, but still high enough to allow Dolly to strengthen into a major hurricane, if it has enough time to do so. Our skill in making intensity forecasts is poor, but it currently appears that Dolly only has enough time to intensify into a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. I give a 10% chance that Dolly will go through a burst of rapid intensification shortly before landfall and achieve major hurricane status at landfall.

The track forecast
The surface center of Dolly is reforming a bit further to the north of the storm, near the heaviest thunderstorm activity. This will require a northward adjustment to the track forecast, increasing the danger to Texas. The models are pretty united in forecasting a track towards the Texas/Mexico border over the next two days, with a decrease in forward speed. Some significant uncertainty creeps into the forecast for Wednesday, when steering currents weaken and the models have differing solutions on the orientation and strength of the ridge of high pressure steering Dolly. The latest GFDL and HWRF models runs from 2 am EDT this morning have shifted significantly north, bringing Dolly ashore near Corpus Christi, Texas. The GFDL shows a very large borderline Category 1/2 hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending from Galveston to Brownsville at landfall. Dolly will probably grow quite large and affect a 200-mile stretch of coast with tropical storm-force winds. Like her namesake, actress Dolly Parton, Dolly the tropical cyclone appears destined to become a media star.

[tropicwatch]

Joe, I like the sat pic. Looks like south Texas for this one. And there is a low coming out of Africa that looks promising. If it forms quickly, I think it will be a fish storm. They usually start tracking NW pretty quickly when they form around cape verde this early in the season.

Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info)

[Smiling JOe]

Joe, I like the sat pic. Looks like south Texas for this one. And there is a low coming out of Africa that looks promising. If it forms quickly, I think it will be a fish storm. They usually start tracking NW pretty quickly when they form around cape verde this early in the season.

Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info)

I cannot say that I follow storm tracking enough to know what will happen and why. However, I do know that every storm seems to have it's own path, and we cannot reliably predict with certainty, a storm's route. Every year seems to be different, too. When was the last time we had three named storms in the Atlantic, at the same time, this early in the season (July)?

Thanks for keeping us posted on the storms. I usually don't look for more storm info until I read it on SoWal.com

[MissCritter]

Dennis hit first or second week of July 2005, so there were already 3 before that one. We most certainly don't need another hurricane season like 2005.

[cpete]

We are in Watersound right now and things seem pretty normal. We were thinking about a deep sea trip later in the week. I wonder what the seas are forecast for? My niece was suppose to be in Harlingen next week for a softball tourney (Padre Island South Texas) but I bet that will be a no go.

:D

[30ashopper]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

Not a bad looking storm, we should see some pretty good surf off this in the next day or so.

edit - and a some rain too!

[sowalgayboi]

We are in Watersound right now and things seem pretty normal. We were thinking about a deep sea trip later in the week. I wonder what the seas are forecast for? My niece was suppose to be in Harlingen next week for a softball tourney (Padre Island South Texas) but I bet that will be a no go.

:D

Hopefully it won't strengthen too much and they will just get some rain and wind. Just a watch and wait at this point.

[Smiling JOe]

If you are going to do any fishing later in the week, you should probably take your gear to the Bay and fish from the causeway. Seas should build as Dolly moves through.

[sowalgayboi]

Is Bobby J already bobbing in the gulf? He usually gets excited about stuff like this.

[jodiFL]

When was the last time we had three named storms in the Atlantic, at the same time, this early in the season (July)?


2004 was really nerve-wracking....http://farm1.static.flickr.com/11/13352451_02683d48c4.jpg?v=0

but they werent all in July,

[sowalgayboi]

None of them were in July. :biggrin:

[jodiFL]

:lolabove: ;-) But 1995 was the worst I have ever seen with named storms every 2 weeks ALL summer it seemed like.


. Tropical Storm BARRY July 6-9
. Tropical Storm CHANTAL July 13-20
. Tropical Storm DEAN July 28-31
. Hurricane ERIN July 31-Aug. 3
. Hurricane FELIX Aug. 8-17
. Tropical Storm GABRIELLE Aug. 9-12
. Hurricane HUMBERTO Aug. 22-Sept. 1
. Hurricane IRIS Aug. 22-Sept. 4
. Tropical Storm JERRY Aug. 22-25
. Tropical Storm KAREN Aug. 26-Sept. 3

nice pic of the "Parade of Storms" in August...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/1995mdpara.gif

[sowalgayboi]

You left off the one that most around here will remember from 1995 OPAL September 11-September 27.

[jodiFL]

You left off the one that most around here will remember from 1995 OPAL September 11-September 27.
yea.... that was intentional. Even I dont like to think about that one. But the list for that year is ALOT longer than just the summer dates I posted. Hopefully it will keep the 10 year trend and wont hurts us too bad this year.

[DuneLaker]

Wasn't Opal in October, 1995, around the 5th?

[sowalgayboi]

Wasn't Opal in October, 1995, around the 5th?

Not according to wikipedia.

[tropicwatch]

Wasn't Opal in October, 1995, around the 5th?

Hurricane Opal 1995
Opal was first detected as a tropical wave moving off the African coast on September 11. The waved moved westward through the Atlantic and Caribbean and merged with a broad low pressure area over the western Caribbean on September 23. The combined system then developed into a tropical depression near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on September 27. The depression drifted slowly northward, becoming Tropical Storm Opal as it reached the north coast of Yucatan on the 30th. Opal then moved slowly westward into the Bay of Campeche, where it became a hurricane on October 2. A gradual north-northeastward turn started later on the 2nd, with acceleration on the 3rd and 4th. Opal continued to strengthen, and a period of rapid strengthening late of the 3rd and early on the 4th made it a Category 4 hurricane. Weakening followed, and Opal was a Category 3 hurricane when it made landfall near Pensacola Beach, Florida late on the 4th. Opal continued quickly north-northeastward and became extratropical over the Ohio Valley on the 5th. The cyclone was last seen over the eastern Great Lakes on October 6.

Hurlbert Field, Florida reported sustained winds of 84 mph with a peak gust of 144 mph, and gusts to 70 mph occurred as far inland as northwest Georgia. However, the main impact from Opal was from storm surge. A combination of storm surge and breaking waves inundated portions of the western Florida Panhandle coast to a depth of 10 to 20 ft. The surge was responsible for the bulk of the $3 billion in damage attributed to Opal in the United States.

Opal was responsible for 9 deaths in the United States, including 8 from falling trees and one from a tornado. Opal was responsible for 50 deaths in Mexico and Guatemala due to flooding caused by heavy rains.

The National Hurricane Center also maintains the official Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Opal.

For an interactive map of Hurricane Opal visit the NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info)

[DuneLaker]

What are the updated weather, surge, etc. conditions forecast with Hurricane Dolly for the Northwest Florida coast? One report on Weather Channel indicated that we'd get some influence. They even included our area in the color coded illustration of tide projections at one point last night. Seems like Code Enforcement would be in high gear today to get all the tents and accompanying junk off the beaches.

[jdarg]

What are the updated weather, surge, etc. conditions forecast with Hurricane Dolly for the Northwest Florida coast? One report on Weather Channel indicated that we'd get some influence. They even included our area in the color coded illustration of tide projections at one point last night. Seems like Code Enforcement would be in high gear today to get all the tents and accompanying junk off the beaches.

I hope so!

Jim Cantore has added a new fashion accessory to his hurricane hysteria outfit- swim goggles.:lolabove:

[aleonard]

I hope so!

Jim Cantore has added a new fashion accessory to his hurricane hysteria outfit- swim goggles.:lolabove:

Maybe they're hurricane goggles to protect his eyes from gale force winds:shock:

[DuneLaker]

They will protect his eyes from the tent that will be flying or washed off SoWal beaches this afternoon. Projected heavy thunderstorms this afternoon. How much do you want to bet the irresponsible polluting people who left their stuff out last night will run down to the beach in the rain to remove their junk from the beach?!

[jdarg]

Maybe they're hurricane goggles to protect his eyes from gale force winds:shock:

He's so resourceful...they were probably left on the beach and he is doing his part!

Dunelaker - I don't think I can bear to go down to the beach and see what is sure to be more beach trash later.:cry:

[DuneLaker]

Jdarg. Aleonard. We'll have to look for matching goggles washed around today and tomorrow. High tide this afternoon could be interesting. The worst winds look like they won't be until tomorrow, up to 20 mph. Could be good beach shopping the next two to three days.

[Smiling JOe]

If you ever stood on a sandy beach with 50mph winds, you will know that the sand is much worse that the water. Eye protection is a good thing.

[aleonard]

Jdarg. Aleonard. We'll have to look for matching goggles washed around today and tomorrow. High tide this afternoon could be interesting. The worst winds look like they won't be until tomorrow, up to 20 mph. Could be good beach shopping the next two to three days.

I sometimes wonder why there is not a "go to the beach" sale from all the stuff that gets picked up. I'm always down with freebies:biggrin:

[InletBchDweller]

I sometimes wonder why there is not a "go to the beach" sale from all the stuff that gets picked up. I'm always down with freebies:biggrin: true dat, we have/had a nice Sego palm in our yard named "Dennis" b/c he is the one who gave it to us...:biggrin:

[DuneLaker]

Right now, 11 a.m. July 23, it is a great beach day. Hazy, sunny, breezy. Head for the beach, just take your stuff home with you. Pictures from Hurricane Dolly now posted in album.

[tropicwatch]

What are the updated weather, surge, etc. conditions forecast with Hurricane Dolly for the Northwest Florida coast? One report on Weather Channel indicated that we'd get some influence. They even included our area in the color coded illustration of tide projections at one point last night. Seems like Code Enforcement would be in high gear today to get all the tents and accompanying junk off the beaches.

Usually from these type of hurricanes we get a little more higher tides than usual and some good surf. I haven't looked to see what the actual predictions are but I wouldn't suspect anything significant for the panhandle.

[sowalgayboi]

According to the news last night we aren't going to get much other than slightly higher than average waves and red to double red flags. No mention of any kind of storm surge.

[DuneLaker]

Okay. At 3:00 p.m. we started getting some good rain and gusty winds along SoWal beaches. A few people were running out from their condos to pick up some of their stuff flying around. At this point, it is actually dangerous, imo, to make the kids run out during the thunder and lightning. A few people did pick up and take their things in before the thunderstorm rolled through . Still, several large tents out, leaning. Will be interesting if the winds pick up as predicted. May have to check at the condos that surround Eastern Lake and see if they have any notice up about not leaving stuff out.

[DuneLaker]

Thursday am in SoWal and quiet. Blue skies, calm winds. Nice surf. Can see waves breaking from back porch. One tent, canopy is splayed all over the beach though from the winds kicked up by passing thunderstorm band. It doesn't take a hurricane or even a tropical storm to make a mess with tents, etc.

[singinchicken]

Saw a report today where Dolly actually shrunk the dead zone in the Mississippi outflow! The churning of the water got some O2 in there...

[Miss Kitty]

:yikes:...Hurricane Dolly is bearing down on DD and me! What the puck???? This is stranger than truth!

[sowalgayboi]

:yikes:...Hurricane Dolly is bearing down on DD and me! What the puck???? This is stranger than truth!

What? Has sleep deprivation left you messed up on dates?

[Miss Kitty]

What? Has sleep deprivation left you messed up on dates?


:eek:...I am in shock that no one cared about us, or believed me!

swgb, my pal...I was messed up way before the sleep thing. :biggrin:

[sowalgayboi]

:eek:...I am in shock that no one cared about us, or believed me!

swgb, my pal...I was messed up way before the sleep thing. :biggrin:

I knew you were full of it. I asked DD if her casa was safe when she was here. She said you guys were fine. ;-)

I already knew the second one. :floor: