Tropical depression forming

[30ashopper]

Just thought I'd let everyone know. I was checking in on Bertha and noticed the hurricane center had an alert up. It looks low enough to slide in under Cuba.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

THE TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[TooFarTampa]

Oof. :blink: That's pretty far south.

[NotDeadYet]

Check out the forecast track models on this site:
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_1964 5022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Click on Storm 94.

This might be one to watch. :eek:

[Gypsea]

Ugg!!!

[scooterbug44]

It's all my fault - we always get a storm when I do a mega house cleaning! :wave:

[Bobby J]

Bertha was funn! Now this. Pinch me.:biggrin:

[ShallowsNole]

Maybe the mountains in Cuba will weaken it enough so that it peters out in the Gulf. This will give bobbyj his swell, but keep the rest of us from having to evacuate and suffer losses. Win-win!

[DD]

awww crap.

[sowalgayboi]

So DD now that you've canceled your vacay ;-) ;-) it should just peter out right?

[beachmouse]

This morning's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook:

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/RHOME

[Smiling JOe]

from www.weatherunderground.com

The area of interest heading toward the Lesser Antilles has still yet to organize. Overall conditions remain favorable for Invest 94L but deeper convection is required. Right now the main burst of convection visible on the satellite imagery (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200894_sat.html) is located ahead of the easterly wave axis. If the convection can shift a bit to the east then we could see some development. However, in its current position this burst of convection will not lead to development.

The wave will continue to progress to the west over the medium term. The HWRF has backed off developing the system, but the GFDL is still agressive in its solution. All the models are in agreement on a track to the west-northwest across the northern Caribbean.

http://www.thestormtrack.com/tropical/aal942008/2008AL94_0715_00z_op_full.png

[DD]

So DD now that you've canceled your vacay ;-) ;-) it should just peter out right?

yes, y'all can thank me later. ;-)

[jdarg]

yes, y'all can thank me later. ;-)

WHAT?:idontno:

[Johnrudy]

No way!!!!!

[DD]

Ok...I didn't cancel. I was kidding. I wouldn't cancel unless it was a Cat 3--oh wait, that's another thread.

[jdarg]

Ok...I didn't cancel. I was kidding. I wouldn't cancel unless it was a Cat 3--oh wait, that's another thread.

I have it on good authority that my house is safe to Cat 3. Bring it on.:wave:

[DD]

I have it on good authority that my house is safe to Cat 3. Bring it on.:wave:

:clap:Yahoo!

[jdarg]

:clap:Yahoo!
Heading to bed. It is hard work preparing for a might-can-happen-storm. Gotta make sure there are clean sheets for everybody, and enough coolers for beer, tequila, and watermelon (my obsession) ! I'll keep you posted on the preparations.

[DD]

Heading to bed. It is hard work preparing for a might-can-happen-storm. Gotta make sure there are clean sheets for everybody, and enough coolers for beer, tequila, and watermelon (my obsession) ! I'll keep you posted on the preparations.

I like vodka. :wave:

[cpete]

Looks like this one may have a better chance. Hope it goes south.

[aleonard]

I like vodka. :wave:
in my watermelon:biggrin:

[DD]

Looks like this one may have a better chance. Hope it goes south.

Awww crap.

[beachmouse]

Current spaghetti models for Invest 94 (Windward Islands blob) want to send it to somewhere in the vicinity of Belize or Honduras.


https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_94.gif