1ST Tropical Storm of the Season

[greenroomsurfer]

Here we go folks!!!!!!!!!! http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/depression_8188___article.html/hurricane_says.html

[beachmouse]

Misleading headline there. Just upgraded TS Alma is an eastern Pacific storm, and that basin's season officially starts on like May 15.

[greenroomsurfer]

Nope this one is in the Carrbean Sea here ya go and push the animate button http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[scooterbug44]

NOAA doesn't have anything on it yet. :idontno:

[greenroomsurfer]

NOAA an the Weather Channel area usually old info.

[BeachSiO2]

NOAA doesn't have anything on it yet. :idontno:

Interesting. All I am seeing is the Pacific one, Alma. I think the Daily messed up also since they are saying the NHC reported it, but it's not on their website.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

[greenroomsurfer]

See link above and watch the picture just don't color it!!!!!:floor::biggrin:

[sowalgayboi]

CNN's already getting excited, I don't watch the weather channel, but I'm betting they are drooling.

[singinchicken]

The first Atlantic storm will be named Arthur. Keep an eye out for it...

[greenroomsurfer]

It'll get drunk and hit New York like Dudley Moore.:lol:

[beachmouse]

What's in the Caribbean isn't even an Invest* in the system yet, much less classified as a storm.

* weather formation that the lead tropical weather agency for a basin wants to investigate.

You don't have to have an invest in order to get a numbered or named storm, but these days there almost always is one.

Good summary page of currently monitored weather here:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

They list named storms in the eastern and western Pacific right now, and an invest in the Indian Ocean, but nothing for the Atlantic right now.

[aleonard]

It'll get drunk and hit New York like Dudley Moore.:lol:


Last year there was much talk about how NY was overdue a storm :scratch:

[TNJed]

It'll get drunk and hit New York like Dudley Moore.:lol:

"Engine room! Where's my drink?" :lol:

[Smiling JOe]

They dropped the hurricane preparedness tax-free days this year. I was so looking forward to buying tax-free batteries.

[Smiling JOe]

From www.weatherunderground.com (http://www.weatherunderground.com)


http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200801_model.gif


http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200801.gif


This second map has it pointing directly at us.

The article from the NWFL Daily News refers to this storm, TS Alma and tries to link it to the Atlantic Hurr Season, but that is stretching the truth a bit.
******************
Statement as of 9:00 am PDT on May 29, 2008

satellite...microwave...and Quikscat data indicate that Alma is
stronger than previously estimated. This special advisory is being
issued to increase the initial and forecast intensity of Alma and
to issue new hurricane watches and warnings for the West Coast of
Central America. Alma is now forecast to become a hurricane prior to
making landfall.

Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 29/1600z 11.7n 86.9w 55 kt
12hr VT 30/0000z 12.5n 87.0w 65 kt
24hr VT 30/1200z 14.0n 88.0w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 31/0000z 15.5n 89.0w 20 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/1200z...dissipated


forecaster Avila

[dgsevier]

Hey, isn't that Jim Cantore I hear in the background?

[NotDeadYet]

Here is Jeff Masters' take. I think he is one of the best.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=951&tstamp=200805

"Since Alma now dominates the circulation pattern of the region, none of the computer models are predicting that a tropical depression will form in the Western Caribbean in the coming week. It is possible that Alma could cross Central America and pop out in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. However, the crossing of Central America will severely disrupt the storm, and the odds of Alma becoming a depression in the Atlantic basin are very low. I am not expecting moisture from the storm to reach the U.S."

I saw that Jim Cantore is planning on broadcasting this weekend, for the start of hurricane season hype, from Miami Beach. :roll: So we should be safe for a little while, anyway.

[DD]

It'll get drunk and hit New York like Dudley Moore.:lol:

"Engine room! Where's my drink?" :lol:

"I fell out of the ****** car!!! Is that the funniest thing ever!!" :biggrin:

[Lady D]

Here is Jeff Masters' take. I think he is one of the best.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=951&tstamp=200805

"Since Alma now dominates the circulation pattern of the region, none of the computer models are predicting that a tropical depression will form in the Western Caribbean in the coming week. It is possible that Alma could cross Central America and pop out in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. However, the crossing of Central America will severely disrupt the storm, and the odds of Alma becoming a depression in the Atlantic basin are very low. I am not expecting moisture from the storm to reach the U.S."

I saw that Jim Cantore is planning on broadcasting this weekend, for the start of hurricane season hype, from Miami Beach. :roll: So we should be safe for a little while, anyway.

I read this also. Going overboard already.

[greenroomsurfer]

Are you a hooker?:floor::floor::floor:

[rapunzel]

Thank you for a memorable afternoon, usually one must go to a bowling alley to meet a woman of your stature.

[DD]

"Imagine how wonderful a girl who bathes would be.":biggrin:

[NoHall]

It'll get drunk and hit New York like Dudley Moore.:lol:

"Engine room! Where's my drink?" :lol:

When you get caught between the moon and New York City...I know it's crazy, but it's true...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjlbJW80doc&feature=related

[InletBchOwnr]

Last time I crossed the Yucatan, I was severly disrupted for some days.....had to settle down in the Gulf of Campeche before I could get my bearings and head toward the west. Hope NYC gets whatever they can handle up there, man, but just seeing a HeriCane on Broadway would be a treat! Still have to stand in line for tickets, though, no matter who you are.

[greenroomsurfer]

Pay attention people!!!!!!!!!!http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Smiling JOe]

back to the storm. It has died down a bit, but still out there. Some big rain out there in the Caribbean. I wonder if we will get some surf next week.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200801_sat.jpg

[greenroomsurfer]

Looks like you and me will be pullen people out of the surf again sat. an sun.?

[jodiFL]

I usually go to NOAA and it seems that the area south of the DR/Cuba might warrant keeping an eye on.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atir.html

[NotDeadYet]

From Jeff Masters:
"Tropical Storm Alma (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200801.html) has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua (http://amazon.nws.noaa.gov/hads/charts/NI.html) the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200801_sat.jpg
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.

There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass (http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas76.png) showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week."

Doesn't say what part of Florida? :confused:

[aleonard]

From Jeff Masters:
"Tropical Storm Alma (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200801.html) has dissipated over the high mountains of Honduras, and thankfully did not dump enough rain to cause a major flooding disaster in Central America. At 3pm EDT yesterday, Alma became the first tropical storm since records began in 1949 to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Central America. All previous Eastern Pacific storms have hit Mexico, which is considered part of North America. Alma came ashore in Nicaragua, near the Honduras border, as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. So far, one person has been killed in Nicaragua, due to a fallen power cable. However, Alma has not dumped enough rain to cause widespread flooding--rainfall amounts in Nicaragua (http://amazon.nws.noaa.gov/hads/charts/NI.html) the past two day have been 3-8 inches. Costa Rica has had rains of similar magnitude, which have caused isolated mudslides that have blocked roads. Additional rain from Alma's remnants should total less than two inches in Costa Rica and four inches in Nicaragua. However, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are likely to get 4-8 inches of rain over the next two days from this system, which could cause significant flooding and mud slides.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/ep200801_sat.jpg
Figure 1. Current satellite image of Alma's remnants.

There is a large area of disturbed weather that has developed in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula in the past few hours, in association with a trough of low pressure extending from the center of Alma. This morning's 7:37am EDT QuikSCAT pass (http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas76.png) showed winds of up to 50 knots (58 mph) in this region, but no hint of a circulation or wind shift. It is possible that this disturbed area could start to develop on its own later today, as a westward-moving tropical wave currently near Jamaica interacts with it. This area should expand and spread into Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan by Saturday. However, I'm not expecting a major flooding disaster with heavy loss of life anywhere in Central America from Alma's remnants. The GFS model is predicting that moisture from Alma will eventually work its way north and bring heavy rains to Florida by June 7. No models are predicting a tropical storm in the Atlantic during the coming week."

Doesn't say what part of Florida? :confused:


Thanks for the update. I could use some rain on my garden:biggrin:

[NoHall]

If y'all aren't using those storms or the rain...

DIBS!

[jodiFL]

If y'all aren't using those storms or the rain...

DIBS!


:lolabove: We will send it your way just as soon as we get finished with it!;-)

[sowalgayboi]

Jason Kelley mentioned grayt surf this week for the surfers regardless of the tropical outcome.

[scooterbug44]

It's going to be a long summer - hurricane season hasn't even officially started yet and I'm sick of the hype and hysteria! :roll:

[greenroomsurfer]

Beach mouse Hijacked out thread !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[chrisv]

000
Wtnt21 Knhc 311657
Tcmat1
Tropical Storm Arthur Special Forecast/advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al012008
1700 Utc Sat May 31 2008

At 1 Pm Edt...1700 Utc...the Government Of Belize Has Issued A
Tropical Storm Warning For The Coast Of Belize....and The
Government Of Mexico Has Issued A Tropical Storm Warning From Cabo
Catoche Southward To The Border With Belize. A Tropical Storm
Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within
The Warning Area..in This Case...within The Next 6 To 12 Hours.

Tropical Storm Center Located Near 18.1n 88.5w At 31/1700z
Position Accurate Within 50 Nm

Present Movement Toward The West-northwest Or 290 Degrees At 7 Kt

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure 1005 Mb
Max Sustained Winds 35 Kt With Gusts To 45 Kt.
34 Kt.......225ne 100se 0sw 0nw.
12 Ft Seas..225ne 100se 0sw 0nw.
Winds And Seas Vary Greatly In Each Quadrant. Radii In Nautical
Miles Are The Largest Radii Expected Anywhere In That Quadrant.

Repeat...center Located Near 18.1n 88.5w At 31/1700z
At 31/1200z Center Was Located Near 17.9n 88.1w

Forecast Valid 01/0000z 19.0n 90.0w...inland
Max Wind 30 Kt...gusts 40 Kt.

Forecast Valid 01/1200z 19.5n 91.0w...over Water
Max Wind 30 Kt...gusts 40 Kt.

Forecast Valid 02/0000z 19.5n 93.0w
Max Wind 30 Kt...gusts 40 Kt.

Forecast Valid 02/1200z 19.0n 94.0w
Max Wind 35 Kt...gusts 45 Kt.
34 Kt...200ne 100se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast Valid 03/1200z 19.0n 95.0w
Max Wind 35 Kt...gusts 45 Kt.
34 Kt...200ne 100se 0sw 0nw.

Extended Outlook. Note...errors For Track Have Averaged Near 225 Nm
On Day 4 And 300 Nm On Day 5...and For Intensity Near 20 Kt Each Day

Outlook Valid 04/1200z 18.5n 96.5w...inland
Max Wind 20 Kt...gusts 25 Kt.

Outlook Valid 05/1200z...dissipated

Request For 3 Hourly Ship Reports Within 300 Miles Of 18.1n 88.5w

Next Advisory At 31/2100z

$$
Forecaster Avila

[greenroomsurfer]

I told ya so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:bang::bang::bang:

[greenroomsurfer]

I'm Arthur King of the Britain's, and I'm on a Quest for the Holy Grail! Help! Help! I'm being repressed.

[jdarg]

I'm Arthur King of the Britain's, and I'm on a Quest for the Holy Grail! Help! Help! I'm being repressed.

Dear GSS,

Go to the beach before you go completely insane. Bonkers. Cuckoo. You have had enough excitement for the day with the snake. Your wife is going to take away your computer privileges very soon.

Love ya, mean it,

Jdarg

[greenroomsurfer]

I should be on my way SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOn!

[jdarg]

I should be on way SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOn!


Have fun for me- we are working on a project.:biggrin:

[greenroomsurfer]

Tell Dargman and Dargboy that some woman wants to buy a Dinosaur, need some extra cash?

[jodiFL]

Hey... maybe this one was uncomfortable being an "ALMA" and decided to become "ARTHUR" instead. Odds on it becoming active again in the Gulf? I say yes....

[greenroomsurfer]

WHOA! Even with or without a skirt a hurricane will beat yor ars!!!:roll::confused:

[NotDeadYet]

Posted by: JeffMasters (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), 9:33 AM EDT on June 01, 2008
Buckle your seat belts, hurricane season is here! If the formation of Arthur on the day before hurricane season officially starts is any indication, we are in for a strange and unusual season. Alma, the Eastern Pacific tropical storm that hit Nicaragua Thursday, fell apart over the high mountains of Honduras. The remnants reorganized over the Western Caribbean on Saturday morning and became Arthur. Had Alma maintained her identity as a tropical depression during the crossing, she would have kept her name. As it was, Alma died, had a posthumous sex change, and became reborn as a man named Arthur. Only two tropical storms since 1949 have made the crossing from Pacific to Atlantic and maintained at least tropical depression status during the crossing:

Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198901.asp) (June 1989).

A Northeast Pacific tropical storm (September-October 1949) became Atlantic Hurricane Storm #10 (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at194910.asp) and made landfall in Texas.

Seven tropical cyclones have survived the crossing from Atlantic to Pacific. I'm not sure how many cases have occurred like Alma/Arthur, where the remnants of a tropical storm reform into a new cyclone in different ocean basin.

Did Arthur form over land?
Arthur was also unusual in that the first advisory position for the storm was inland over northern Belize, about 30 miles from the ocean. Technically, the storm probably formed while the center was just offshore or right at the coast, but NHC did not name it until the center was already inland. There is one other case of NHC issuing its first advisory on a system while it was over land--Hurricane Agnes (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19722.asp), which became a tropical depression on June 14, 1972, while centered over the Yucatan Peninsula. Since the Yucatan is a relatively narrow strip of land with very warm ocean waters on three sides, one can form a tropical depression centered over land here in rare cases, when the large-scale atmospheric patterns are very favorable for tropical storm formation.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1972_charts_zoom/at197202.gif
Figure 1. Track of Hurricane Agnes of 1972, which formed over the Yucatan Peninsula.

The future of Arthur
The primary threat from Arthur is rain. Heavy rains of up to five inches (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/rain.cgi?GEO=centa) have fallen over portions of Belize and Southeast Mexico over the past 24 hours, and rainfall amounts of up to ten inches may accumulate in some regions. None of the models are bringing the center of Arthur over the Gulf of Mexico, so the storm should decay into a tropical depression later today, and then dissipate by Monday. What would really make for an odd season would be if Arthur died over Mexico, its remains drifted over the Eastern Pacific, then re-formed into Tropical Storm Boris. Some of the computer models were suggesting this yesterday, but are no longer doing so today.

Would Arthur have been named 30 years ago?
Arthur is one of those weak, short-lived tropical storms that may not have been recognized as a named storm thirty or more years ago. Arthur was named primarily based on measurements from a buoy that didn't exist 30 years ago, and from measurements from the QuikSCAT satellite, which didn't exist until 1999. There was one ship report that was used, though, and ship reports were heavily relied upon in the old days to name tropical storms.

Jeff Masters

[Beach Runner]

One is named after me and is spelled correctly!:yikes:The one named after hubby demolished our neighborhood's cypress beach walkover a few weeks after we all paid a boatload of money for it.:yikes::yikes:

My "faint" smiley would be appropriate here, but recently got eaten by Earthlink. :angry:

[sowalgayboi]

Hey... maybe this one was uncomfortable being an "ALMA" and decided to become "ARTHUR" instead. Odds on it becoming active again in the Gulf? I say yes....

Looks like the transgendered hurricane isn't going to happen.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200801_5day.gif

[sowalgayboi]

Hey... maybe this one was uncomfortable being an "ALMA" and decided to become "ARTHUR" instead. Odds on it becoming active again in the Gulf? I say yes....

One is named after me and is spelled correctly!:yikes:The one named after hubby demolished our neighborhood's cypress beach walkover a few weeks after we all paid a boatload of money for it.:yikes::yikes:

My "faint" smiley would be appropriate here, but recently got eaten by Earthlink. :angry:

Nice to meet you Dolly and Wilfred. :funn:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

[beachmouse]

Though it would be amusing if the remnants of Alma/Arthur got pushed far enough south to go back into the Pacific and conditions were favorable enough to get a Tropical Storm Boris out of what used to be two other named storms.

[organicmama]

Nice to meet you Dolly and Wilfred. :funn:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

I actually used to know a Wilfred.:biggrin: He would have been my FIL if I hadn't wised up over 8 years ago.... And my one & only MIL is Josephine.:floor:

[scooterbug44]

Since it's that time again!

[Gypsea]

If we have to be ready for hurricane season, we may as well be prepared to eat in style. :biggrin:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/features/lifestyle/sfl-flnocooksbjun05,0,2423042.story

[sowalgayboi]

Currently the tropics are free and clear!

[seagrovegirl]

As of today there is a tropical...something...coming off Africa and heading towards the US. According to the 5 day tracking chart...it appears it will go into the Atlantic and leave us alone. However...there are more disturbances growing behind it.

Get ready....here we go!

[scooterbug44]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145312.shtml?5day#contents

Bertha! :blink:

[BeachSiO2]

No worries. I checked with Mother Nature and she said there is about a 99.9% chance that it will not hit land.

[aleonard]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145312.shtml?5day#contents

Bertha! :blink:


uh oh :shock:that was my Grandmothers name. It might be a doozy:blink:

[scooterbug44]

It's definitely going to either hit us or mess up the weather because I will have people visiting who think I'm crazy for living where hurricanes occur! :bang:

[seagrovegirl]

go to www.wunderground.com/tropical (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical) you can track it on the site. I was able to check the local weather radar today as well......

Everyone...have a grayt day!!!!

[seagrovegirl]

According to the tracking...and of course it is a long way off, but......It looks like it's going to New York!!!!!!!!!!!!

[beachmouse]

Might be some land interaction. NHC says:

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BERTHA.

Odd to see a Cape Verde storming that far east this early in the hurricane season.

[Just_In_Thyme]

We need it to come to Ga. and give us some rain, we will take all the Trpoical storms mother nature can throw at us, as long as she stay out of the Gulf.