Watercolor

[Dominoes]

Just wondering what the thought is for the bottom prices at Watercolor. There are listings in Phase 2 and 3 in the upper $300's per square foot and I know of some homes that have closed around $350 per square foot in Jan, primarily short sales. There are few signs that things are going to turn around in 2008. Where and when go you think the bottom will hit? Is it the end of 2008/ early 2009 and will it go as low as $300 per square foot? I am thinking about buying and wanted some advice.

[robertsondavies]

Prices will bottom in Waterclor in the $250 -275 sq. foot range, at some point late this year - just a guess - and they will then go sideways for a few years. ... and they still will NOT cash flow.

gasp ... what, $250 a sq/ft!!!..... it can't be true, b/c it cost x per sq. ft to build and the lots were 'worth" $ x. Well, all that don't mean sh*t anymore... it used to be that price itself, didn't mean sh*t, b/c tomorrow's price was invariably higher... then the music stopped.

[Rambunkscious]

It's hard to believe that Mr Davies, I would bet money that will not be the case. The music has not stopped, just on pause for a few.

[robertsondavies]

Why would you be willing to wager, if I may, why Watercolor prices won't drop another 10% when they've already been cut down 40 % or more from the 05 peaks already?? What's the stopper, or catalyst? Markets always overshoot and also over-correct. Whether it drops another 10% or stays flat is a moot point if you like the area, as I do. Both scenarioes, flat and/or 10% down will be terriblly underperforming returns on investments, as compared to other asset classes like equities over the next few years, IMO. and yet, people still love SoWal.

I agree that the worst case scenario is remote for South Walton. That would be a case where investment vacation homes would have to be competitive to other investments on a discounted free cash flow basis - if that were the case Watercolor/Seaside/Rosemary would be selling for right around $135/sq ft. Since I'm willing to bet against a depression, I'm willing to bet against that scenario. I'd also bet you that 10 years from now, we'll be well up through even 2005 prices, and that 50 years from now, this will have been incredibly good dirt to own.


It's hard to believe that Mr Davies, I would bet money that will not be the case. The music has not stopped, just on pause for a few.

[scooterbug44]

I think there wil be some short sales and desperation that give you costs at that price point, but since you can't buy land and build quality at that cost in WC, it will be a blip on the radar screen. Well constructed homes (whose owners are not under duress) will need to sell higher to make a profit or break even.

[Franny]

According to St. Joe, the company saw a 71% increase in sales for Jan 08 compared to Jan 07 for Watercolor and Watersound. The calls from buyers I have received in the last couple of weeks have been specifically for Watercolor. And yes they want the best 'deals', but there are competitive prices in Watercolor along with short sales and at least one foreclosure.

[BeachKing]

I still have a real hard time figuring a 2k sq ft home can cost 1 million, and not be on the beach.

[Bobby J]

I still have a real hard time figuring a 2k sq ft home can cost 1 million, and not be on the beach.

It can happen!

[SHELLY]

I still have a real hard time figuring a 2k sq ft home can cost 1 million, and not be on the beach.

Two words: Granite Countertops :biggrin:

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[DD]

Two words: Granite Countertops :biggrin:

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:biggrin:

[George]

Some where in the high 400's per square foot in WaterColor seems about right to me right now. When you look at current (not past) lot prices plus the current (not past) cost to build plus a premium for getting plans through the DRB and incurring the hassle associated with building a home, I think high $400's per square foot seems about right. I would say low to mid $500's per square foot in WaterColor seems about right for Phase I.

Any thoughts on this?

[George]

Do any of the realtors or other professionals on this board have any thoughts on my last post on this topic?

[quartz sand]

Since Aug08 quite a few homes in the various areas of Watercolor have had Lis Pendens Pre-foreclosure filings filed with Clerk of Courts. Has anyone followed up on these? Are the banks holding them? If any have sold what was the $/sqft range?

PS-I'll get the lot #s if someone will check the status.

[Chickpea]

Some where in the high 400's per square foot in WaterColor seems about right to me right now. When you look at current (not past) lot prices plus the current (not past) cost to build plus a premium for getting plans through the DRB and incurring the hassle associated with building a home, I think high $400's per square foot seems about right. I would say low to mid $500's per square foot in WaterColor seems about right for Phase I.

Any thoughts on this?

One needs to be very careful when talking about s.f costs because it is important to know and understand what this entails and includes. Is it cost divided by gross s.f? Is it cost divided by net s.f? How are garages, porches, balconies, etc counted? Are soft costs rolled in? What about tap fees? Permit fees? Printing costs? Is GC involved and does number include O & P, etc. etc.....

This is especially prescient when one is comparing costs between different builders or even against different communities.

And a HUGE number depends on interior finishes - one can add a lot or cut a lot depending on choices.

Hope this helps a bit. Thanks

[sowalgayboi]

Net and Gross square footage?

The common terms are:

Total - The total square footage of the building. Including all interior spaces, garages, porches, etc.
Under Roof - The total square footage of the building covered by a roof. Includes all of the above as long as it is under the roof.
Heated - The total square footage of the heated/cooled space. Usually the above minus garages and porches.

[Chickpea]

Net and Gross square footage?

The common terms are:

Total - The total square footage of the building. Including all interior spaces, garages, porches, etc.
Under Roof - The total square footage of the building covered by a roof. Includes all of the above as long as it is under the roof.
Heated - The total square footage of the heated/cooled space. Usually the above minus garages and porches.

Many builders use gross and net when talking about sq.ft. costs.

In addition, many architects and builders assign different costs to conditioned space (heated and cooled as you say) and spaces such as garages and porches, loggias, galleries, etc.. are NOT calculated as such but rather as a percentage of conditioned space. Under roof is too vague as many spaces may indeed be covered but not conditioned and therefore not as $$$$.

Thanks

[SHELLY]

One needs to be very careful when talking about s.f costs because it is important to know and understand what this entails and includes. Is it cost divided by gross s.f? Is it cost divided by net s.f?


I think the emphasis on the "cost per square foot" came from investulators using it as a way to keep score. "I paid $200 per square foot last month and sold it for $350 yesterday."

Unless you are are sizing up the price of the "Cookie Cutter II Model" at Vinyl Village or Stucco City the "cost per square foot" pretty much means nothing.

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[Chickpea]

Unless you are are sizing up the price of the "Cookie Cutter II Model" at Vinyl Village or Stucco City the "cost per square foot" pretty much means nothing.

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Agreed wholeheartedly.

[sowalgayboi]

I think the emphasis on the "cost per square foot" came from investulators using it as a way to keep score. "I paid $200 per square foot last month and sold it for $350 yesterday."

Unless you are are sizing up the price of the "Cookie Cutter II Model" at Vinyl Village or Stucco City the "cost per square foot" pretty much means nothing.

.

This is true as you could have a 2000 sq ft home with high end appliances, granite counter tops, lots of upgrades and the house runs $200/sq ft. Then you have a 4000 square foot home with no extras, cheap paint, and no frills for the same price or less per sq ft.

[tsutcli]

There was an auction in Watercolor recently of quite a few properties all owned by the same entity. One was a property on Western Lake Drive in Phase 2 ( a 4 BR ) that drew a final bid of $760,000 ( about $275/ ft ), which was rejected by the bank. FYI

[MissCritter]

Sorry to say, but there's your market value. Having been a realtor in a previous life, I remember being taught that market value is what a buyer is willing to pay for a property at a particular point in time. It does not matter what the last buyer paid, what the land cost, what amenities it has or anything else for that matter. Bottom line is - the value is what a buyer is willing to pay. Period. That's why comps are not based on listings, but on sales.

[SHELLY]

Sorry to say, but there's your market value. Having been a realtor in a previous life, I remember being taught that market value is what a buyer is willing to pay for a property at a particular point in time. It does not matter what the last buyer paid, what the land cost, what amenities it has or anything else for that matter. Bottom line is - the value is what a buyer is willing to pay. Period. That's why comps are not based on listings, but on sales.




The daze of the 'Drive-By Appraisal' apparently are over according to this article:

Appraisers are looking for signs that values are headed lower. Lenders need to know if a home worth $400,000 today might be on its way to a value of only $360,000. They want assurance that borrowers will have enough cash invested in the home to keep them from walking out on the debt.

"There is higher scrutiny because the market is going down," said James Loizou, co-owner of Suburban Appraisers & Consultants in Fairfax. Loan underwriters, the people who pass judgment on your loan application, are being more demanding. They want information on comparable home sales, homes still on the market, those under contract, closed sales, foreclosures and incentives offered by home builders. They may even want info about homes that didn't sell and were taken off the market.

"Frankly, those are fair questions," Loizou said. "It just makes more work."

"You're looking at what's on the market today and at what's listed. That affects the appraisal, also," he said.

If there are foreclosures nearby, or home builders offering deep discounts, or desperate sellers setting their asking prices 10 percent lower than the most recent closed sale, your appraised value will be lower.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030703907.html

[TooFarTampa]

I think the emphasis on the "cost per square foot" came from investulators using it as a way to keep score. "I paid $200 per square foot last month and sold it for $350 yesterday."

Unless you are are sizing up the price of the "Cookie Cutter II Model" at Vinyl Village or Stucco City the "cost per square foot" pretty much means nothing.

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I'm pretty sure cost per square foot is just the way realtors have been looking at values for many years in Florida. It is not like that in every state, but it was the standard in 1996 when we bought our first home.

I think it is not altogether a bad way to look at values, as long as relevant factors (location, lot size, amenities and quality) are comparable.

[Coast is Clear]

Local realtor passed along the following results for 2007:

2007 average sales per square foot for resale houses-

Number
of sales
#20 Seaside- $1,071
#26 Rosemary- $773
#20 Watersound- $546
#45 Watercolor- $510

[fisher]

Local realtor passed along the following results for 2007:

2007 average sales per square foot for resale houses-

Number
of sales
#20 Seaside- $1,071
#26 Rosemary- $773
#20 Watersound- $546
#45 Watercolor- $510

Not sure how the realtor came up with these figures. But, in looking at the Walton county website, only 5 of the sales in Seaside sold for over $1000 per square foot so it is hard to imagine how the overall average was above $1000 per square foot. In addition, you need to consider location in these developments when comparing prices per square foot. Three of the Seaside sales were gulf front and none in Watercolor or Watersound were gulf front. In addition, none of the homes in Phase II or Phase III in Watercolor are as close to the beach as any of the homes in Seaside so you are comparing apples and oranges.

I would be interested to know how the realtor came up with the numbers and it would be interesting to see more comparable comparisons such as non oceanfront Seaside compared to Phase I in Watercolor, Phase I in Watersound and non oceanfront/almost oceanfront in Rosemary. I would bet the numbers would be more tightly packed together.

[seagrovegirl]

Local experienced Realtors will counsel a client about SF. I have been asked "what is the average SF per home in general for the area?" There isn't one. Unless it cookie cutter as mentioned already or a condo, then a condo's $ can reflect furnishing, which in some units are better than others. Each property is unique and my experience is to pull comps for each property and do the math.

[steyou]

Appraisers are looking for signs that values are headed lower. Lenders need to know if a home worth $400,000 today might be on its way to a value of only $360,000.

How about $260,000

[Dominoes]

It has finally happened. Two homes closed this month for $300 per square foot. A 3400 sq ft sold earlier in the month for $900,000 and another 3400 sq ft. home sold for $1,050,000. The bottom is here and despite the optimism that spews from most real estate agents, things must be pretty desperate to see these prices. Just my 2 cents...

[sowalgayboi]

Another house in WC has a contract on it for around $6 million.

[Dominoes]

Must be gulf front. Big difference between that and Phase 2 and 3.

[Dominoes]

While looking for a place in Watercolor, I found it VERY interesting at the network of real estate agent/ developers who are all working together to keep prices inflated in Watercolor. It is a great place, but if you are looking try to find a house that has a selling agent with only 1 or 2 listings, otherwise the network will let each other know you are looking and you will not find a reasonably priced home there. These short sales:clap: and foreclosures must be driving the NETWORK crazy because atleast for the short term, they can't control the prices.

[sowalgayboi]

Must be gulf front. Big difference between that and Phase 2 and 3.

Yep!

[BeachKing]

Highest HOme I've seen in WC was for 4.4 million, Gulf Front. Where is this one?

[fisher]

Another house in WC has a contract on it for around $6 million.

Please give more details. There wasn't even a house listed on the MLS for over $5 million in Watercolor. How could one be under contract for $6 million? That would have been one heck of a bidding war in a down market.
I have to believe you don't have your facts straight.

[Bobby J]

It has finally happened. Two homes closed this month for $300 per square foot. A 3400 sq ft sold earlier in the month for $900,000 and another 3400 sq ft. home sold for $1,050,000. The bottom is here and despite the optimism that spews from most real estate agents, things must be pretty desperate to see these prices. Just my 2 cents...

Hard not to be optimistic when you live in Paradise, pick your own hours, decide who you want to work with, and in a business that constantly changes! We are moving allot of inventory right now. The banks are working with short sales, foreclosures and people are pricing to sell. This market is as active as I have seen in 3 years. If you don't buy that come on by the office and look at our office pending drawer. The bottom is a good thing.

[Bobby J]

Just did a quick CMA over view of all sales and pendings in Watercolor since 01/01/2008. I removed all the sales that looked really high. The average sq. foot price per sale is still at $460 sq. foot. If you throw in everything on average you are back to $576.

[full time]

Hey Dominoes - instead of posting here, get out and sign up a few more sellers so we don't have to read another Watercolor conspiracy theory.

[Dominoes]

Hey Dominoes - instead of posting here, get out and sign up a few more sellers so we don't have to read another Watercolor conspiracy theory.

Another conspiracy theory, you mean I am not the first to notice. Must be true or you wouldn't take such offense to it. Look at the POA Board members at WC and see how many of them are real estate agents or developers, interesting?

[full time]

No offense taken. I'm a firm believer that you eliminate the impossible and the merely improbable becomes the likely. Watercolor has so many different agents and agencies and developers and home builders working the community, it's probably one of the truer representatives of the actual market for high end second homes along 30-A. Therefore, you're theory about some vast colluding network of agents and developers is impossible bull&%$*. No offense.

[Bobby J]

While looking for a place in Watercolor, I found it VERY interesting at the network of real estate agent/ developers who are all working together to keep prices inflated in Watercolor. It is a great place, but if you are looking try to find a house that has a selling agent with only 1 or 2 listings, otherwise the network will let each other know you are looking and you will not find a reasonably priced home there. These short sales:clap: and foreclosures must be driving the NETWORK
crazy because at least for the short term, they can't control the prices.:yikes:

You are not being serious are you? The so called NETWORK loves short sales and foreclosures. Product going under contract makes everyone happy. Where do you think they meet for this plan of price inflation. The bat cave! The majority of the pricing comes from sellers. An agent would have not interest in keeping a listing that is too high to try to maintain a value. Many sellers simply can not sell competitively so they just keep these high prices out there. Agents make money selling not listing too high to try to manipulate a market.

[Dominoes]

OK, maybe I'm wrong.

[fisher]

Another house in WC has a contract on it for around $6 million.

SWGB,

Where is the beef? :confused: Please reveal the details on the $6 million house in WC.

[dunelover]

Might want to check these out. http://www.sowal.com/property.html 489128. or 489126 On the mls today at 321/sq. and 320/sq.ft. Either a great deal or the average is falling still. :idontno:

[sowalgayboi]

Please give more details. There wasn't even a house listed on the MLS for over $5 million in Watercolor. How could one be under contract for $6 million? That would have been one heck of a bidding war in a down market.
I have to believe you don't have your facts straight.

I apologize, this was the Dawn Thurber designed Gulf Front home. I had originally heard the asking price was $6 million, then I heard it had gone under contract. Got them mixed up. It's probably the $5 million dollar one you mentioned.

[iqueequeg]

Might want to check these out. http://www.sowal.com/property.html 489128. or 489126 On the mls today at 321/sq. and 320/sq.ft. Either a great deal or the average is falling still. :idontno:

I think these are both in that neighborhood over near Publix. Considered less desirable so I think that's reflected in the price. Still a great deal, though.

[tsutcli]

I think these are both in that neighborhood over near Publix. Considered less desirable so I think that's reflected in the price. Still a great deal, though.
Yes. These are both in Phase 4 near Publix. Joe built spec. homes.

[JoshMclean]

Nice home closed in Watercolor yesterday at $305/foot. Great buy for someone!

[fisher]

Nice home closed in Watercolor yesterday at $305/foot. Great buy for someone!

Prices on these "forced" sale properties are definitely low-unfortunately for many builders and investors who are losing big bucks. The buyers are getting good deals. Phase II and Phase III are gettgin hit pretty hard by these "liquidation sales". However, in the more stable, almost built out and better located Phase I, prices have been pretty stable for a while. Smaller cottages are selling in the $1.2 million +/- range, larger homes for $1.5-$2.5 million (depending on size, location and home amenities) and a few premier properties are selling for even more. Phase II and Phase III will likely be "depressed" for quite some time due to more stress sales that will be coming, worse location and lots of available lots for sale.

Just my opinion backed up by some real sales data.

[fisher]

I apologize, this was the Dawn Thurber designed Gulf Front home. I had originally heard the asking price was $6 million, then I heard it had gone under contract. Got them mixed up. It's probably the $5 million dollar one you mentioned.


Thanks for the clarification.

[full time]

I believe the most per square foot ever obtained in Watercolor was in Phase II. Once you get outside of a view corridor and/or walking distance, price per square foot deviations are driven by the size of the house and quality of design and construction. Distressed sales are impacting the entire 30-A market by driving down the average price of a home. Phase I is not somehow insulated from that impact anymore than Phase II and Phase III will bear the brunt of it.

[Franny]

You are not being serious are you? The so called NETWORK loves short sales and foreclosures. Product going under contract makes everyone happy. Where do you think they meet for this plan of price inflation. The bat cave! The majority of the pricing comes from sellers. An agent would have not interest in keeping a listing that is too high to try to maintain a value. Many sellers simply can not sell competitively so they just keep these high prices out there. Agents make money selling not listing too high to try to manipulate a market.

Very well said BJ. It amazes me that there are people that want to believe we as agents hike up list prices! There are owners that make up their own mind on pricing no matter what comps we present to them. Ok I feel better!:biggrin:

[Franny]

Yes. These are both in Phase 4 near Publix. Joe built spec. homes.

Be sure and have a professional inspection for these spec homes.

[sowalgayboi]

Be sure and have a professional inspection for these spec homes.

Very true, weren't these the last of Joe built homes?

[Franny]

Very true, weren't these the last of Joe built homes?

Yes.:roll:

[scooterbug44]

If I had a choice between a Joe built home and a dumpster as a hurricane refuge, I'd choose the dumpster! There were several experienced & good contractors working, but the rest of them......... :roll:

[SHELLY]

Very true, weren't these the last of Joe built homes?

The quarter closes out next Monday (March 31)...JOE is looking for any source of revenue to offset its quarterly losses.


.

[fisher]

I believe the most per square foot ever obtained in Watercolor was in Phase II. Once you get outside of a view corridor and/or walking distance, price per square foot deviations are driven by the size of the house and quality of design and construction. Distressed sales are impacting the entire 30-A market by driving down the average price of a home. Phase I is not somehow insulated from that impact anymore than Phase II and Phase III will bear the brunt of it.

Phase II has never commanded as much as Phase I and the highest prices paid in WC have all been in Phase I (several $3 million plus sales, non beach front and several more above $2.5 million, non beach front). Phase I prices are holding much better than Phase II or Phase III. No sales below roughly $500 per square foot in Phase I. Many, many below $400 per square foot in Phases II and III. Seaside, comparable to Phase I in terms of location, is also holding up very nicely in terms of price. Sure prices are down, but the farther you get from the beach, the bigger the drop seems to be. Location, location, location.

[heathernken]

Closing just happened on a nice over 3K sq ft home, asking 1.5 sold for 1.050 about 305 per foot. Phase 3.

[fisher]

Closing just happened on a nice over 3K sq ft home, asking 1.5 sold for 1.050 about 305 per foot. Phase 3.


That was one very different floorplan--too unusual for many folks and lots of unusable square feet. Also, about as far from the beach as you can get in Watercolor. Again, way too much at risk inventory in Phase II and III. Way too many empty lots where you could build cheaper than you could buy many of the existing homes. This will keep prices down in these phases.

Phase I has only a few undeveloped lots and not many at risk homes as many were purchased before the boom. Also, great close to the beach location in Phase I. That'w why prices haven't dropped as precipitously as in the rest of WC.

[full time]

The third highest price per square ever paid in Watercolor was in Phase II and the sale occurred less than a year ago. The big sales you refer to are almost all in Park Row on the south side or lake front on Western Lake in Phase I. Similar high price sales have or will occur on the park in Phase II and the lake in Phase III. Everything else is going to look the same with deviations for quality. When you're north of 30-A, a block or three really means little.

[DuneLaker]

There were some exceptionally good builders for the spec Joe homes. You just have to know who built what. Some lucky people will end up with a very well built home at a great price

[sowalgayboi]

Fisher I have to disagree with you on the fact that Phase II and III of WC are somehow undervalued. Although further from the beach some lots hold incredible value. Such as cross lake gulf views and sides that share the State Forrest border. Given the right buyer that is a much greater value than 30A frontage with a slight gulf view.

[fisher]

Fisher I have to disagree with you on the fact that Phase II and III of WC are somehow undervalued. Although further from the beach some lots hold incredible value. Such as cross lake gulf views and sides that share the State Forrest border. Given the right buyer that is a much greater value than 30A frontage with a slight gulf view.

Average price paid for a home in Phase I over the past year was over $600 (excluding Park Row and Beachfront) per square foot with the lowest being around $500. In Phase II and III the average price has been under $450 (with some at $300) or about 30% to 40% below Phase I.

I don't believe Phase II and Phase III are undervalued. I believe they are worth much less than Phase I due to location and the prices people are paying now and have paid in the past prove back up this point. It only make sense that a house within walking distance from the beach will be worth more than a comparable house a bike or car ride away.

[fisher]

The third highest price per square ever paid in Watercolor was in Phase II and the sale occurred less than a year ago. The big sales you refer to are almost all in Park Row on the south side or lake front on Western Lake in Phase I. Similar high price sales have or will occur on the park in Phase II and the lake in Phase III. Everything else is going to look the same with deviations for quality. When you're north of 30-A, a block or three really means little.

One house in Phase II sold for over $700 per square foot (over 50% above the Phase II average) about one year ago. But, the average price was below $450. Not one other house in Phase II has sold for over $550 since then. In the meantime, several houses in Phase I sold for over $700 per square (20% above the average) foot last year with the average being over $600.

There is also a much bigger difference in distance to the beach than a "block or three". Some parts of Phase II are over a mile to the beach via the streets of WC versus and easy walk from most of Phase I.

Prices in all of Watercolor and all along 30A are likely to continue to soften until the inventory problem and the mortgage/banking mess get sorted out.

[full time]

Over $700.00 ....... it was over $900.00. A lot of what you are looking at is the spec inventory and there just happens to be more of it in Phase II and Phase III so better deals can be had. In the long run, things will start to even out as the other houses accumulate some rental history.

[Watersound]

I understand the importance of proximity to the beach, but does "feet above sea level" have a place in the decision to purchase beach property...whether it be a lot or a home? Most of Watercolor and Seaside are north of 30a, but does surge still factor in?

In my mind an elevated property with a slight gulf view would be a better investment than a gulf front at 3x the money.

Just curious if realtors discuss sea level with prospective buyers...

[scooterbug44]

Sea level isn't so much as issue as flood zones & wetland designations.

[fisher]

Over $700.00 ....... it was over $900.00. A lot of what you are looking at is the spec inventory and there just happens to be more of it in Phase II and Phase III so better deals can be had. In the long run, things will start to even out as the other houses accumulate some rental history.

You might want to check the MLS again. 359 Spartina Circle--3317 square feet sold for $2.60 million. Equates to under $800 per square foot. Besides this isolated sale, only a couple of other properties in Phase II sold for over $500 per square foot over the past year and the majority closed near or below $400 per square foot. On the other hand, I could find no sales in Phase I below $500 per square and numerous above $700 per square foot.

Please direct me to any house in Watercolor outside of gulf front or park row that sold for $900 per square foot. I don't believe any house outside of Park Row or gulf front has sold for much over $800 per square foot and there were only a few of those that occurred during the bubble days in 2005.

[full time]

MLS shows 2800 feet for $926.00 a foot. Tax rolls reflect a larger footprint. Regardless, 11 houses have closed this year and all but 2 are in Phase II & III. That's because buyers are getting a better price in those areas because the sellers are more motivated. No doubt you'll see some softening in Phase I from those that have to sell and are competing with the houses in II and III.

[George]

I believe Phases II and III are attracting the value buyers who are looking for a great deal. Considering you can easily buy a lot for $250,000 in Phases II and III and build a house for ~$250 per square foot, you could build 3,000 square feet for under $1,000,000. The sellers in those phases have to compete with that issue because the lot inventory is so high. Sellers in phase I do not have that concern and many of the non-value purchasers with lots of cash will be attracted to the proximity of Phase I to the beach and the complete, built out feeling Phase I has.

[Santiago]

You might want to check the MLS again. 359 Spartina Circle--3317 square feet sold for $2.60 million. Equates to under $800 per square foot. Besides this isolated sale, only a couple of other properties in Phase II sold for over $500 per square foot over the past year and the majority closed near or below $400 per square foot. On the other hand, I could find no sales in Phase I below $500 per square and numerous above $700 per square foot.

Please direct me to any house in Watercolor outside of gulf front or park row that sold for $900 per square foot. I don't believe any house outside of Park Row or gulf front has sold for much over $800 per square foot and there were only a few of those that occurred during the bubble days in 2005.

FYI. Fulltime is not giving you his opinion, it is a fact that the house in question was 2800 sf, not 3317 as you stated. No need to look at tax rolls to try and figure it out, it is a fact. I know the house, the builder, the floor plan, etc. It was 2800 sf.

[fisher]

FYI. Fulltime is not giving you his opinion, it is a fact that the house in question was 2800 sf, not 3317 as you stated. No need to look at tax rolls to try and figure it out, it is a fact. I know the house, the builder, the floor plan, etc. It was 2800 sf.

Got it. County records are wrong which is not surprising.

So, the actual data shows the sale to be even more out of range than the county records show. $900 per square foot in Phase II or a 100% premium over the average price per square foot. :yikes: Regardless of quality, finishes, etc, that price seems a tad high. Good news for the seller for sure. Probably not so good for the buyer from an investment perspective.

[DuneLaker]

Answering WaterSounds question. IMO, height above sea level is a value item as is distance to Gulf. WaterColor and WaterSound, along with a number of properties along 30A, have an advantage of being above sea level and are built back behind primary dunes, in the transitional coastal zone or maritime forest. This property might indeed turn out to be a good investment as it will probably be high and dry for years to come. The only view isn't the beach. Many enjoy leaving the beach crowds at the end of the day and can still hear the waves lapping on the shore from the comfort of their porch swing nestled among the native landscape.

[Watersound]

I appreciate that input Dunelaker. South of 30A but behind the dunes is a nice comfort zone. Gulfviews would be fantastic, but bought too soon!

Thanks

[sowalgayboi]

I appreciate that input Dunelaker. South of 30A but behind the dunes is a nice comfort zone. Gulfviews would be fantastic, but bought too soon!

Thanks

Give it time, eventually everyone's got water front property. ;-)

[DuneLaker]

:lolabove::floor:well, maybe not:wave:

[traderx]

Wow, I feel like I just fell off the turnip truck. :bang:

We live in Atlanta and thought prices were getting out of hand here but what is going on in the Florida panhandle is amazing. I had posted about building costs in Destiny and based on what I have read, we will not be building in Destiny. We will try to find a resale and rehab and see how those costs look. If the costs don't work, we will find another spot to retire to, simple as that. We don't have any choice really. I keep reading that the market is dropping in Florida but apparent the SoWal MSA is immune.

[SHELLY]

I keep reading that the market is dropping in Florida but apparent the SoWal MSA is immune.

You just need to keep checking back for the "one week only" price drops. :cool:

.

[Chip and Dale]

Quote [I understand the importance of proximity to the beach, but does "feet above sea level" have a place in the decision to purchase beach property...]

When we looked for property in WaterColor back in 2003, >20 ft above sea level was a requirement.

[Shnicklefritz]

I'm trying to post a new thread and I keep getting a fatal error. Anyway, looking for a 2 bedroom/2 bath cottage - simple and not expensive. Vacation home. Anywhere in sowal but must be close to beach. Can anyone point me to a website where I can begin searching and looking at prices. Thanks.

[WaterCourseWay]

I'm trying to post a new thread and I keep getting a fatal error. Anyway, looking for a 2 bedroom/2 bath cottage - simple and not expensive. Vacation home. Anywhere in sowal but must be close to beach. Can anyone point me to a website where I can begin searching and looking at prices. Thanks.

www.emeraldcoasthomesonline.com

[Shnicklefritz]

Do I select the east and west walton county choices to cover all of sowal? I'm not that familiar with the area. Have driven through and have gotten confused where I was. Is Santa Rosa nice? Seacrest?

[2bohemians]

Do I select the east and west walton county choices to cover all of sowal? I'm not that familiar with the area. Have driven through and have gotten confused where I was. Is Santa Rosa nice? Seacrest?

Try selecting South Santa Rosa Beach and South Walton East ... that should pretty much cover the 30A .... if you are interested in Miramar Beach or Sandestin, you can select South Walton West ....

Yes Santa Rosa Beach is nice and so is Seacrest .... it all depends on what you seek in a beach community ... each one along the 30A has a different energy and vibe .....

[WaterCourseWay]

Do I select the east and west walton county choices to cover all of sowal? I'm not that familiar with the area. Have driven through and have gotten confused where I was. Is Santa Rosa nice? Seacrest?

If you are looking for something on or near Hwy 30A, select South Walton East and Santa Rosa Beach. South Walton West is (obviously) still part of Walton County, but it covers the Sandestin/Miramar Beach area, which is not on Hwy 30A. Santa Rosa Beach is the "official" town name for most of the communities along 30A, as well as north of 30A to the bay.

If I were you I would spend some time looking at a map to determine locations, but I can't really help you decide if something is "nice", it's just too subjective. What's nice to me might be nasty to you... The only way to really know which areas you'll like is to spend some time here first; the communities all have unique qualities and individual character.

Sowal.com is also a fantastic way to learn about the area, it was a huge help to me in deciding where I wanted to live. Go back to the home page and check out all of the tabs on the left side, especially the "tourism" and "links" tabs, that will be a good start for you...

[WaterCourseWay]

Their website frustrates the $#@!#$ out of me, but this map is pretty good:

http://www.beachesofsouthwalton.com/map.asp?gotopage=http://map.mapnetwork.com/destination/beachesofsouthwalton

[Shnicklefritz]

Thanks for the info - will browse...

[tsutcli]

Got it. County records are wrong which is not surprising.

So, the actual data shows the sale to be even more out of range than the county records show. $900 per square foot in Phase II or a 100% premium over the average price per square foot. :yikes: Regardless of quality, finishes, etc, that price seems a tad high. Good news for the seller for sure. Probably not so good for the buyer from an investment perspective.
Current closed house sales data for 2008 in Watercolor:
Phase 1 - $619/sq ft - 3 closed sales/5 sales not closed yet
Phase 2 - $399/sq ft - 5 closed/4 not closed
Phase 3 - $416/sq ft - 7 closed/2 not closed
Phase 4 - No sales in 08
Sq. Ft. is based on only heated/AC space.

[fisher]

Current closed house sales data for 2008 in Watercolor:
Phase 1 - $619/sq ft - 3 closed sales/5 sales not closed yet
Phase 2 - $399/sq ft - 5 closed/4 not closed
Phase 3 - $416/sq ft - 7 closed/2 not closed
Phase 4 - No sales in 08
Sq. Ft. is based on only heated/AC space.

Are your price per square foot nimbers based on the actual closed sales noted above or do they include the pending sales too?

[tsutcli]

Are your price per square foot nimbers based on the actual closed sales noted above or do they include the pending sales too?
On closed sales only as final selling price not available until after close.

[AAbsolute]

For the record: If your in the market for a good Watercolor Lot check out fellow Sowal'r TSUTCLI 's Lot in Watercolor. Lot 8, Mere Ridge. I think this one is a great one. If you can check out the aerial view on the Property Appraiser site you will probably agree.

[LoveSOS]

If TSUTCLI came off of the price about 20% I would buy it from her/him.

[AAbsolute]

If TSUTCLI came off of the price about 20% I would buy it from her/him.

Who wouldn't?

[fisher]

Who wouldn't?

Lots of people that have the wherewithal and are interested in WC would not jump on a price 20% lower for that particular lot. There are many Ph II and PH III lots in WC that are headed to the mid $100's over the next two years as the market continues to shake out.

[tsutcli]

2008 home sales ytd - ph # closed ave. Sold price ave. $/sq. Ft. ( COOLED AND HEATED SPACE )
1 12 1.927 625
2 14 1.046 439
3 18 1.208 418
4 0

2008 LOT SALES YTD
1 2 1 M
2 4 263,000
3 14 457,000
4 1 172,000



MULTI-FAMILY NORTHSIDE 4 742,000 538
MULTI-FAMILY SOUTHSIDE ( ? ) 0
PRC 7 137,000 98

[tsutcli]

Sorry about the above post. Can't seem to edit this so it makes more sense. Numbers won't move over under appopriate heading and stay after I edit and save. Hope you can desipher For info. onl.

[AAbsolute]

Lots of people that have the wherewithal and are interested in WC would not jump on a price 20% lower for that particular lot. There are many Ph II and PH III lots in WC that are headed to the mid $100's over the next two years as the market continues to shake out.

Are you sure you know the lot we are talking about on Thicket?

I don't have a thing to gain by seeing it sold or remain unsold. I have to say that this lot appears to be priced right. If someone paid 10% below asking they would be getting a great deal. I must be out of the loop.

Respectfully, JC

[fisher]

Are you sure you know the lot we are talking about on Thicket?

I don't have a thing to gain by seeing it sold or remain unsold. I have to say that this lot appears to be priced right. If someone paid 10% below asking they would be getting a great deal. I must be out of the loop.

Respectfully, JC

AA--everyone is entitled to their own opinion and based on your comments, it appears you believe that prices have bottomed or come close to bottoming.

As you have stated previously, Joe still has lots of inventory and they will be dropping prices in order to keep the revenue flowing. There will likely be continued downward pressure on prices. I wouldn't be surprised to see lot prices drop below original Joe asking prices from 2001.

In my opinion, we have a ways to go before we hit bottom. Especially for raw lots. That's why some people would need to see lot prices on Thicket (one mile from the beach club via car or bike) come way down before jumping in. For others, the price could never get low enough to buy that far from the beach in WC. That's my opinion, but it's not even worth the paper it's written on. Time will tell.

[AAbsolute]

I was figuring the lot at 5% or so below asking would be 254,600. Put a 2,400 sq. ft., 4 bed, 4 bath, Beach Casual Cottage on it for 355,000. You're in a high visibility property with a traffic speed buffer being on 80 Thicket Circle for 610,000 brand new. That just seems to be a good, solid and fair transaction for both sides of the deal.

On another******

I was watching a Watercolor Park Row property called #1 that went into foreclosure and the bank moved it to an LLC the past week for somewhere in the 500,000's. With a house on it for 400'ish that was a true steal. I do wonder what happens to Jan W. in that deal as the previous owner. Does the bank now come after him for the difference? Shouldn't the bank have asked 700 and got it?

[fisher]

I was figuring the lot at 5% or so below asking would be 254,600. Put a 2,400 sq. ft., 4 bed, 4 bath, Beach Casual Cottage on it for 355,000. You're in a high visibility property with a traffic speed buffer being on 80 Thicket Circle for 610,000 brand new. That just seems to be a good, solid and fair transaction for both sides of the deal.

On another******

I was watching a Watercolor Park Row property called #1 that went into foreclosure and the bank moved it to an LLC the past week for somewhere in the 500,000's. With a house on it for 400'ish that was a true steal. I do wonder what happens to Jan W. in that deal as the previous owner. Does the bank now come after him for the difference? Shouldn't the bank have asked 700 and got it?

I know of no builder (except maybe you) that will build a WC quality house with all the fixin's for $120 per square foot. But, if you could find one to do it, and you don't mind being 1 mile from the beach, it's not a bad price.

[Miss Kitty]

I was figuring the lot at 5% or so below asking would be 254,600. Put a 2,400 sq. ft., 4 bed, 4 bath, Beach Casual Cottage on it for 355,000. You're in a high visibility property with a traffic speed buffer being on 80 Thicket Circle for 610,000 brand new. That just seems to be a good, solid and fair transaction for both sides of the deal.

On another******

I was watching a Watercolor Park Row property called #1 that went into foreclosure and the bank moved it to an LLC the past week for somewhere in the 500,000's. With a house on it for 400'ish that was a true steal. I do wonder what happens to Jan W. in that deal as the previous owner. Does the bank now come after him for the difference? Shouldn't the bank have asked 700 and got it?

What is up with all those empty lots, anyway? :idontno:

[AAbsolute]

I know of no builder (except maybe you) that will build a WC quality house with all the fixin's for $120 per square foot. But, if you could find one to do it, and you don't mind being 1 mile from the beach, it's not a bad price.


355,000 for a 2,400 sq. ft. home is $148 per square foot. I'm sure there are builders in Watercolor who build for that at this time. Didn't Geoff Chick and Chris Clark just put together a successful project in Watercolor for that price point?

Anyway, I am pretty sure that that lot with the proper home would cash flow off rental or provide a great long term residence. Again, it's not my property and I'm not a realtor. That's probably real close to a bottom if it's not a bottom for Thicket Circle near Camp Watercolor.

[AAbsolute]

What is up with all those empty lots, anyway? :idontno:

Are you talking about the lots on Park Row? {South of 30A in Watercolor} I don't think there are many empty lots over there. I know of 1, 2, 3 and maybe #4. I was watching #1 and I can't believe I missed the public auction by 1 day. That was a deal for Arnold Family Investments. :clap:

[SHELLY]

St. Joe Co. Offers Homesite-Buyer Incentives

Buyers can take advantage of perks while their houses are being built
September 8, 2008 - 5:43PM
Kimberly White
Northwest Florida Daily News

SANTA ROSA BEACH - As real estate sales continue to sag, The St. Joe Co., one of Florida's largest developers, is pulling out all the stops to up their property sales.

Like many companies, St. Joe is loading up on the perks and has announced three incentive programs for prospective home buyers along the Gulf Coast.

The WaterSound Living and SummerSweet Living programs in WaterSound and WaterColor, respectively, allow home buyers - for a nominal fee - to purchase extended stays at luxury residences in their chosen communities while their homes are being built. A similar program also has been launched at Windmark Beach in Port St. Joe in Gulf County.

Tom Dodson, vice president of sales for West Florida, said St. Joe got out of the homebuilding business during a restructuring two years ago and is now focused primarily on real estate development and sales. Although the company did relinquish some of its inventory last year, many of the developed lots are ready for home buyers to build on, he said.

The idea behind the new incentive programs is to generate more sales.

While a home site is a great asset to own, Dodson said, buyers do not get anything out of the associated fees they still must pay even though their homes are not built.

"We tried to position it where, yes, you'll own the lot, you'll pay these (fees), but you'll have a place to stay while you're here," he said. "Say you bought a $100,000 lot in SummerSweet. Well, for the next two years until you build your house, you have the use of a cottage right there for a very minimal fee."

Buyers can stay in the furnished cottages for up to a week and have access to amenities such as a beach club, boat house, tennis center, golf club and fitness center. Likewise, those who participate in the WaterSound Living program will pay a minimal fee for up to a week-long stay in a one-bedroom condominium at the WaterSound Beach GateHouse.

In addition, a recently launched Discovery Stay geared toward top real estate prospects allows them to stay at the WaterSound Beach GateHouse, or at the village center at Windmark Beach in Port St. Joe, to experience life there.

"There's no better way to promote the communities and the projects you have within the communities than for someone to stay and experience what it is," said Dodson, who added that the best way to sell a property is to have a face-to-face meeting with prospective buyers.

All three incentive programs will run through December 2010. St. Joe expects the real estate industry to rebound by that time.

Company officials expect the international airport being built in Bay County to open up the Emerald Coast to a larger national and international audience - and potential customers.

The Gulf Coast has been in a real estate slump since the last quarter of 2005, largely because of the numerous tropical storms and hurricanes that have hit the region, Dodson said.

[AAbsolute]

That press release was loaded with good news:

The real estate slump should rebound in 27 months.

The new airport will bring International buyers to Watercolor.

The real estate slump began in 2005 and was due largely to hurricanes.

JOE has the financial wherewithal, and is willing, to drop its lot prices 60% below the price it sold its previous customers.

[Miss Kitty]

Are you talking about the lots on Park Row? {South of 30A in Watercolor} I don't think there are many empty lots over there. I know of 1, 2, 3 and maybe #4. I was watching #1 and I can't believe I missed the public auction by 1 day. That was a deal for Arnold Family Investments. :clap:

Yes, those lots. I am talking about the lots closest to 30-A. Being a "rule follower";-), I could never understand how they stayed empty for so long, as they were released very early on in the frenzy. If Lot #1 is the one closet to 30A, that would be the least desirable lot.

[AAbsolute]

Yes, those lots. I am talking about the lots closest to 30-A. Being a "rule follower";-), I could never understand how they stayed empty for so long, as they were released very early on in the frenzy. If Lot #1 is the one closet to 30A, that would be the least desirable lot.

I was in a preliminary agreement to buy Lot 3 which is the 3rd from 30A in a trade/sale for one of my Watersound homes. That Seller showed his build out as 2010. For some reason the Property Appraiser online site shows those 3 parcels as 1. I'm sure it is in need of computer updating.

I find any of those 3 lots more desireable than any lot North of 30A in Watercolor. IMO those lots are worth 1,000,000 each.

[Miss Kitty]

I was in a preliminary agreement to buy Lot 3 which is the 3rd from 30A in a trade/sale for one of my Watersound homes. That Seller showed his build out as 2010. For some reason the Property Appraiser online site shows those 3 parcels as 1. I'm sure it is in need of computer updating.

I find any of those 3 lots more desireable than any lot North of 30A in Watercolor. IMO those lots are worth 1,000,000 each.

2010? Wow...was he an original buyer? Weren't those lots offered in one of the initial lotteries? IMO, a million dollars is too high, but that is just my common sense answer. ;-)

[tsutcli]

Mere Ridge house sales '08
Lot 7 - $797,000, $397/sq ft, 3/3.5 Thicket Circle
Lot 9 - $999,000, $400/sq ft, 4/3.5 Thicket Circle
Lot 16 - $1.3M, $336/sq ft, 5/4.5 Pond Cypress Way
Lot 22 - $1.14M, $461/sq ft, 4/4.5 "
Lot 23 - $900, $398/sq ft, 4/4.5 "

[AAbsolute]

2010? Wow...was he an original buyer? Weren't those lots offered in one of the initial lotteries? IMO, a million dollars is too high, but that is just my common sense answer. ;-)

Those lots had an original release date of 2003. There have been extensions to build out granted as well. At original release in '03 the lots were about + or - $700,000. The County assessment has tham at + or - 1,000,000 curretly. A peron could put a great home on those lots for 475,000.

Don't you think they might be worth 1.5 to 1.750 for 4 beds, 5 baths, bunkroom? I believe they could be a rental machine. There is a lake in the backyard and the gulf is within 600'.

[Miss Kitty]

Those lots had an original release date of 2003. There have been extensions to build out granted as well. At original release in '03 the lots were about + or - $700,000. The County assessment has tham at + or - 1,000,000 curretly. A peron could put a great home on those lots for 475,000.

Don't you think they might be worth 1.5 to 1.750 for 4 beds, 5 baths, bunkroom? I believe they could be a rental machine. There is a lake in the backyard and the gulf is within 600'.

Wow...I could have sworn that the first house built (used to have pinkish shutters, now they are brown) was up when our building was finished in 2002. Guess I have better things to look at when I am down there. ;-)

And, yes...THOSE prices sound much better than the 4 or 3 million dollar prices I have seen before. Thanks for the info...the lot price makes more sense to me now.

[AAbsolute]

Wow...I could have sworn that the first house built (used to have pinkish shutters, now they are brown) was up when our building was finished in 2002. Guess I have better things to look at when I am down there. ;-)

And, yes...THOSE prices sound much better than the 4 or 3 million dollar prices I have seen before. Thanks for the info...the lot price makes more sense to me now.

Those lots you mentioned with that home you mentioned were originally released in late 2000 and 2001. It is just the first few by 30A that were released in '03. See ya

[fisher]

St. Joe Co. Offers Homesite-Buyer Incentives

Buyers can take advantage of perks while their houses are being built
September 8, 2008 - 5:43PM
Kimberly White
Northwest Florida Daily News

SANTA ROSA BEACH - As real estate sales continue to sag, The St. Joe Co., one of Florida's largest developers, is pulling out all the stops to up their property sales.


The Gulf Coast has been in a real estate slump since the last quarter of 2005, largely because of the numerous tropical storms and hurricanes that have hit the region, Dodson said.

Now that's some real spin there. What about oversupply, the credit crunch, recession, etc etc.?

If the slump really is due to tropical storms and not other forces, I guess the area will never, ever recover, will it? Tropical storms will keep coming year in and year out. Dodson ain't too bright to state that tropical storms is why buyers aren't buying--that means they will never come back as Florida is always going to be plagued by the threat of and the landfall of tropical storms.

[fisher]

I was in a preliminary agreement to buy Lot 3 which is the 3rd from 30A in a trade/sale for one of my Watersound homes. That Seller showed his build out as 2010. For some reason the Property Appraiser online site shows those 3 parcels as 1. I'm sure it is in need of computer updating.

I find any of those 3 lots more desireable than any lot North of 30A in Watercolor. IMO those lots are worth 1,000,000 each.

If they were worth $1 million, lot 1 would have sold long ago when it first listed below $1 million.

[fisher]

Wow...I could have sworn that the first house built (used to have pinkish shutters, now they are brown) was up when our building was finished in 2002. Guess I have better things to look at when I am down there. ;-)

And, yes...THOSE prices sound much better than the 4 or 3 million dollar prices I have seen before. Thanks for the info...the lot price makes more sense to me now.


Although two have sold for over $3 million during the past year or so. If you can have a similar place for under $2 million were these buyers throwing away their money?

[AAbsolute]

Now that's some real spin there. What about oversupply, the credit crunch, recession, etc etc.?

If the slump really is due to tropical storms and not other forces, I guess the area will never, ever recover, will it? Tropical storms will keep coming year in and year out. Dodson ain't too bright.

Have you attended any of the annual HOA meetings for Watercolor or Watersound? Tom Dodson, Ken Borick, Mary Rosenheim or even last year's Vance Askew must be pretty bright. They are commanding speakers who have faced hundreds of homeowners and bravely pitched these spins for years. They must be bolder and brighter than average. I have never heard any of them hide behind oversupply, recession or credit crunch.

[Miss Kitty]

Although two have sold for over $3 million during the past year or so--someone throwing away their money.

Once again, the market makes no sense to me! ;-) I bet these people are very happy with their purchases and are hopefully end users!

[AAbsolute]

If they were worth $1 million, lot 1 would have sold long ago when it first listed below $1 million.

In this market it is probably going to be hard to sell vacant land at or near its completed value. I think pretty sure that a home on one of those lots would be sold pretty quickly at 1.5 to 1.75, but in its raw, unimproved form as a lot this market just won't bring the price for the lot only side of the valuation.

[fisher]

Have you attended any of the annual HOA meetings for Watercolor or Watersound? Tom Dodson, Ken Borick, Mary Rosenheim or even last year's Vance Askew must be pretty bright. They are commanding speakers who have faced hundreds of homeowners and bravely pitched these spins for years. They must be bolder and brighter than average. I have never heard any of them hide behind oversupply, recession or credit crunch.

He certainly didn't mention any of those problems in the press release.

[fisher]

In this market it is probably going to be hard to sell vacant land at or near its completed value. I think pretty sure that a home on one of those lots would be sold pretty quickly at 1.5 to 1.75, but in its raw, unimproved form as a lot this market just won't bring the price for the lot only side of the valuation.

Got it. Thanks. I thought we were talking about the lot, not the lot with a future home on it.

[fisher]

Once again, the market makes no sense to me! ;-) I bet these people are very happy with their purchases and are hopefully end users!

Agreed.

Probably happy until they need to sell.