Calling The Bottom

[spinDrAtl]

A couple days ago I happened to be reading an article in the Atlanta Journal regarding the market in Panama City. There was a quote from Janet Roan, a local (PC, not Atl) real estate agent - "Now is the time to buy. It's a buyer's market." But she says, "If you are looking to buy something to flip it, don't even try it right now."

The catch? That article was from April 16, 2006.

There was another guy who had put contracts on 3 units in Panama City towers, pre-construction, each in the low 200k range. The article says the prices had tripled and then fell back but were still above his contract price. He said at the time he still expected to be able to sell at a comfortable profit although they were not yet completed. He was worried at the time that they may be overdeveloping the Panama City Beach area.

I'd like to see the AJC or some other organization do some follow up stories and talk to some of the same people interviewed previously. What does that agent think now? Did that guy close on his 3 properties and sell them or did he walk from his deposits? Is he stuck in 3 condos, eating a monthly mortgage while taking in some little bit of rent?

[Smiling JOe]

You have to remember that the Realtor was comparing the prices in 2006, to the recent historical highs of 2005. A Realtor cannot compare today's prices to the potential future prices. So was she wrong? Only in hind sight we know such things. If we could predict the future, we wouldn't be working.

[Rambunkscious]

Thats why a grain of salt mixed in with investment advice is prudent.
The realtor thought she was right but history usually proves us all wrong.
A lot of realtors will just give you the facts, and let you decide, and I think this method is preferred.

[seaside2]

Amen, brother, amen

[SHELLY]

:shock: A Realtor said, "Now is The Time to Buy" ? :shock:




.

[Franny]

Thats why a grain of salt mixed in with investment advice is prudent.
The realtor thought she was right but history usually proves us all wrong.
A lot of realtors will just give you the facts, and let you decide, and I think this method is preferred.

Ditto!

[spinDrAtl]

You have to remember that the Realtor was comparing the prices in 2006, to the recent historical highs of 2005. A Realtor cannot compare today's prices to the potential future prices. So was she wrong? Only in hind sight we know such things. If we could predict the future, we wouldn't be working.

Of course you can only compare to the past prices. I think I would have preferred someone to say 'Prices are down x% from the highs of 2005', not a definitive statement such as the one above. 'Now is the time to buy' seems to give an entirely different piece of information, intentionally or unintentionally. By making that statement, she actually seems to be comparing 'now' to some point in the future that she thinks she has foreseen, IMHO.

[sowalgayboi]

Looked her up on www.myfloridalicense.com, she still has an active real estate license, but like so many realtors is now exam eligible for her CAM license.

[Smiling JOe]

Of course you can only compare to the past prices. I think I would have preferred someone to say 'Prices are down x% from the highs of 2005', not a definitive statement such as the one above. 'Now is the time to buy' seems to give an entirely different piece of information, intentionally or unintentionally. By making that statement, she actually seems to be comparing 'now' to some point in the future that she thinks she has foreseen, IMHO.
You make a very good point.