Tropical Deppression 4

[BeachSiO2]

It's early, but here you go fellow weather junkies...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#FOUR

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/basin-story.asp?basin=atlantic

[sandflea]

Here's an interesting graph. I prefer the CLP5 (orange) and NGPS (Teal) models

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

[Beachbummett]

:nono1: :moon:

[JB]

I don't want any damage at the beach, but considering the heatwave/drought we are currently having in west Alabama, I wouldn't mind this thing coming right through my backyard - provided it's primarily a rainmaker.

[Smiling JOe]

I'm not so sure that warm air coming out of the Gulf will provide cool air, even if it brings rain.

[JB]

I'm not so sure that warm air coming out of the Gulf will provide cool air, even if it brings rain.

I'll gladly take the rain either way. But I guarantee you a storm would break the cycle of days when we've had temps in excess of 102. It's horrible.

[BeachSiO2]

It will end up in the Atlantic... That's my story, and I am sticking to it!

[hnooe]

I'll gladly take the rain either way. But I guarantee you a storm would break the cycle of days when we've had temps in excess of 102. It's horrible.

I am with you JB, we could pray for just a nice, mild tropical storm to help the current extreme drought. Always hope for the best.

[Lady D]

It will end up in the Atlantic... That's my story, and I am sticking to it!

I sure hope you are right. We are heading South the 24th and don't need any tropical storm raining on our parade. It has been quiet this season and now they are showing two, one crossing into the southeast part of the Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday bringing rain eventually to Texas and then this other one out around the Yucatan Peninsula. I would hate to not get to come down there or to have to leave midweek because of this. Hopefully it will stay away from the panhandle. Getting a good rain to cool things off would be one thing and to bring some much needed rain, but no hurricane please. :cry:

[Bobby J]

Just swell is all I ask!!!!!:bow:

[Lady D]

Just swell is all I ask!!!!!:bow:

Yeah, Bobby J, you want to be able to surf! :lol:

[sandflea]

I used to say we needed a hurricane to blow the stank of things every now and again...but that was before they started getting a pissy on us :rolleyes:

[Hop]

Just swell is all I ask!!!!!:bow:

tell me about it...anything.....

[Arkiehawg]

Just swell is all I ask!!!!!:bow:

Welcome Back Bobby!

You will probably get your wish this week AND next week....unfortunately....:(


It's that time again......:cool:

[Lady D]

As long as it is gone before we head down next Friday and doesn't do any damage. A good rain would be welcome and I wouldn't mind seeing a tropical system if it was a minor one and not one that would keep us rained in the entire week or make us have to evacuate. Especially after already paying for our townhouse. Storm storm stay away, hope you trek another way. :(

[Arkiehawg]

As long as it is gone before we head down next Friday and doesn't do any damage. A good rain would be welcome and I wouldn't mind seeing a tropical system if it was a minor one and not one that would keep us rained in the entire week or make us have to evacuate. Especially after already paying for our townhouse. Storm storm stay away, hope you trek another way. :(

Keep your fingers crossed, but keep your eyes open. The GOM will be seeing the effects of Dean IF it makes it there mid-latter next week. Still to early to really say.....but stay tuned!



http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_5day.html#a_topad

[Lady D]

Keep your fingers crossed, but keep your eyes open. The GOM will be seeing the effects of Dean IF it makes it there mid-latter next week. Still to early to really say.....but stay tuned!



http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_5day.html#a_topad

Any chance it could skirt up the Atlantic side instead??? :biggrin:

[Arkiehawg]

There is always that chance....Mother Nature is never very predictable.....

But, I wouldn't bet the farm on that chance...more probable of it getting into the GOM, cutting across FL THEN getting into the Atlantic.... :blink:

Jest my uneducatid opineon......:cool:

[jodiFL]

Well.. it seems there is another...
The first is new Tropical Depression (Five) in the central Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This low is moving off to the west-northwest at 10-15 mph. Clouds and rain from the system should spread into southern Texas on Wednesday. This tropical depression is forecast to become a tropical storm, named Erin, before making landfall in the next few days.

[30A Skunkape]

Too bad for Texas, they have been soaked with rain as of late. I think we actually could use a wet tropical storm over in these parts.

[Cheering472]

Any chance it could skirt up the Atlantic side instead??? :biggrin:

Be careful even if it does, Katrina did just that; made landfall on the Altlantic coast of Florida came across the state back into the gulf, where it got really nasty.

[jodiFL]

Seems like I remember a storm named "Erin". Was that the year we had one every 2 weeks or something? I had a piece of plywood that we put it up on one window that had the names & dates that we put it up. I think the first name was Allison in June and I got tired of writing on it and stopped in August. :blush:

[nicdeedoop]

Jeff Masters....

None of the computer models are forecasting that Dean will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The trough of low pressure that will pass north of the islands on Saturday is now expected to be a bit weaker than earlier forecast, which should allow Dean to pass into the Caribbean on a west to west-northwest track. The trough is no longer forecast to spawn an upper-level low pressure system, which means that the danger to the U.S. East Coast north of the Carolinas is minimal. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in after the first trough passes on Saturday, which should keep Dean on a west to west-northwest path into the middle of next week. The southernmost model solutions (GFDL, Canadian) take Dean into Honduras early next week. The more northerly solutions of the GFS and HWRF take Dean over Jamaica, then into the Gulf of Mexico. No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Thursday night, and by Friday morning we should have a good set of model runs that will give us a more reliable idea of Dean's likely track. At present, it appears that Dean's main threat to the U.S. will be to the Gulf of Mexico coast

[BeachSiO2]

Seems like I remember a storm named "Erin". Was that the year we had one every 2 weeks or something? I had a piece of plywood that we put it up on one window that had the names & dates that we put it up. I think the first name was Allison in June and I got tired of writing on it and stopped in August. :blush:

Erin and Opal impacted sowal in 95.

[Lady D]

Jeff Masters....

None of the computer models are forecasting that Dean will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The trough of low pressure that will pass north of the islands on Saturday is now expected to be a bit weaker than earlier forecast, which should allow Dean to pass into the Caribbean on a west to west-northwest track. The trough is no longer forecast to spawn an upper-level low pressure system, which means that the danger to the U.S. East Coast north of the Carolinas is minimal. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in after the first trough passes on Saturday, which should keep Dean on a west to west-northwest path into the middle of next week. The southernmost model solutions (GFDL, Canadian) take Dean into Honduras early next week. The more northerly solutions of the GFS and HWRF take Dean over Jamaica, then into the Gulf of Mexico. No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Thursday night, and by Friday morning we should have a good set of model runs that will give us a more reliable idea of Dean's likely track. At present, it appears that Dean's main threat to the U.S. will be to the Gulf of Mexico coast

:bang:

[Johnrudy]

:bang:
We'll all be watching it. :(

[nicdeedoop]

At present, it appears that Dean's main threat to the U.S. will be to the Gulf of Mexico coast

Gulf of Mexico Coast is a little vague at best....but as we all well know, a lot could change this far out....right now it looks like maybe it'll blast itself right into the Yuctan Penisula....I'm guessing we will have to wait until Sunday to get a good consensus on the models

[Johnrudy]

Gulf of Mexico Coast is a little vague at best....but as we all well know, a lot could change this far out....right now it looks like maybe it'll blast itself right into the Yuctan Penisula....I'm guessing we will have to wait until Sunday to get a good consensus on the models
Yeah, that's what happened 2 years ago. We had flights and reservations for Sowal in June - Delta canceled because of a TS hit the day our flight was to land. We rescheduled for Oct. to go to Cancun. That's when Wilma hit. We lost out, comparatively speaking, on the vacation front.

[Smiling JOe]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200704_windprob34.gif

[jodiFL]

^ yep ...ol' Erin is sucking it right up here huh?

[Smiling JOe]

^ yep ...ol' Erin is sucking it right up here huh?That could be good for WalCo and surrounding areas, as it could build up our beaches, but that sucks for TX.

[Smiling JOe]

Dean is building a little speed, as it jumped up to 70mph sustained winds, and looks like it will be a Cat 2 Hurricane by the weekend. I'd be canceling those plans of heading the US Virgin Islands.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200704.gif

[Lady D]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200704_windprob34.gif

It would be nice if it would just stay way south of the panhandle. It's a good thing the gulf runs way south. Here's hoping.

[Smiling JOe]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200704_sat.jpg

[DD]

Here, they're saying a Cat 4 by Monday, and could hit Texas or Mexico. Probably different on another channel...:idontno:

[jodiFL]

Just keep an eye on the barometric pressure HERE. If it gets lower than Texas or Mexico......:creepy:

[DD]

Just keep an eye on the barometric pressure HERE. If it gets lower than Texas or Mexico......:creepy:

:eek:

[Smiling JOe]

Just keep an eye on the barometric pressure HERE. If it gets lower than Texas or Mexico......:creepy:Back during the storms of 2005, I recall reading that the trail of a storm will have a lower barometric pressure than the surrounding area, thereby acting as a pull for any trailing storms. Looking at the tracking map, it appears to be backing up what I heard. However, I am sure that many factors could play a roll changing paths of the trailing storm.

[jodiFL]

Yes, since TSs are low pressure they tend to stay with low pressure areas. High barometric pressure will push them away.

[SHELLY]

Here's an interesting site: http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW-Surf-Charts/9/

.

[iwishiwasthere]

Here's an interesting site: http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW-Surf-Charts/9/

.

Good visual:clap: Looks okay for next weekend.:biggrin:

[Smiling JOe]

Officially, TS 4 is now Hurricane Dean.

[jdarg]

Bdarg's hurricane action plan includes clearing a space in the garage for one of the cars.

Maybe if I start this morning, I can carve out a spot by the time Dean makes landfall.:lol:

[Miss Kitty]

Bdarg's hurricane action plan includes clearing a space in the garage for one of the cars.

Maybe if I start this morning, I can carve out a spot by the time Dean makes landfall.:lol:

All I know is, if sarafunn and pals get stuck there, you may have to move the car back out...they'll be headed to your shelter! :biggrin: :wave:

[jdarg]

All I know is, if sarafunn and pals get stuck there, you may have to move the car back out...they'll be headed to your shelter! :biggrin: :wave:

OMG!!:eek: Don't worry - we will take care of them!

[Miss Kitty]

OMG!!:eek: Don't worry - we will take care of them!

We are kinda' downplaying it here. I so want them to go and have funn. Plus, I am already worrying about daddy in Houston. Deep breaths.

[Smiling JOe]

All I know is, if sarafunn and pals get stuck there, you may have to move the car back out...they'll be headed to your shelter! :biggrin: :wave:You can send those college girls to my house. :biggrin:

[kathydwells]

You can send those college girls to my house. :biggrin:

Oh my........:D

[Miss Kitty]

You can send those college girls to my house. :biggrin:

:floor: ...they'll be riding in on their white horses!!! :wave:

[Smiling JOe]

:floor: ...they'll be riding in on their white horses!!! :wave:
Is that like saying, "in your dreams!" ??? :lol:

[Miss Kitty]

Is that like saying, "in your dreams!" ??? :lol:

:floor: ...no, that's like saying they are social work grad students and they are going to save the world! :wub: ...they make me proud.

[kathydwells]

Is that like saying, "in your dreams!" ??? :lol:

:funn: SJ, you are on a roll today!!!! I love it!

[Cheering472]

:floor: ...no, that's like saying they are social work grad students and they are going to save the world! :wub: ...they make me proud.

My kind of people, you should be proud. I have a fondness for kids who are going to save the world, one child at a time.

[jodiFL]

Erin and Opal impacted sowal in 95.
Yes and I just went and found that I stopped writing on that board with the
" 1995 Parade of Storms" ...when there were 4 or 5 lined up in the Atlantic. If you are new to the area Google some of those images for a look at the hurricane season we had leading up to Opal.
:yikes:

[Smiling JOe]

Yes and I just went and found that I stopped writing on that board with the
" 1995 Parade of Storms" ...when there were 4 or 5 lined up in the Atlantic. If you are new to the area Google some of those images for a look at the hurricane season we had leading up to Opal.
:yikes:

http://geology.com/news/images/1995-hurricane-track-maps.gif
...and they kept coming after Opal. Still not as many as the 2005 season, about ten short.

[Smiling JOe]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200704_model.gif

[SON]

If you have not checked
www.weatherunderground.com

The tropical blog Jeff Masters does is very helpful
His next update is 3:pm central

SON

[jodiFL]

The 04 season was pretty scary also. They were bunched up. But the second image is of them lined up in 95.

[Smiling JOe]

The crazy thing is that Hurr. Ivan nearly was nearly equal is size to the three largest 2004 storms, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne.:shock:

Okay, back to Hurricane Dean...

As of the last update at 10am Central, Hurricane Dean now has sustained winds of 90mph, putting it very close to a Cat 2.

[jodiFL]

I am trying to find a good webcam in the Lesser Antilles region so we can keep an eye on it "real time" :biggrin:. looks like by Friday A.M. it could be located right near there. I will post a link as soon as I find one.

[SON]

great info at
www.weatherunderground.com

[Smiling JOe]

I am trying to find a good webcam in the Lesser Antilles region so we can keep an eye on it "real time" :biggrin:. looks like by Friday A.M. it could be located right near there. I will post a link as soon as I find one.
Interesting idea. Weatherunderground.com has a new link of webcams, mostly in the US, but there are three showing in Puerto Rico. Here is the link (http://www.weatherunderground.com/webcams/index.html). Maybe Kurt should add the Grayton Beach webcam. :idontno:

[SON]

Great idea SJ
what do you think Kurt
Weatherunderground gets a lot of hits

[jodiFL]

Webcams are my new way of being hurricane obsessed at this time of year. I got hooked when I went to one in Destin to see an approaching storm and spotted a HUGE waterspout coming into the pass. So now i have decided that why wait for the weather channel or whoever to show me footage when I can go myself? (Kurt needs to get the webcam live again before he links it;-))

[Smiling JOe]

From Dr Masters' report (http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=751&tstamp=200708)
Posted by: JeffMasters (http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), 4:13 PM EDT on August 16, 2007



"Dean is steadily moistening the environment around it, and may be able to overcome the dry air on Friday and put on a burst of rapid intensification. I expect Dean will become a large and extremely dangerous major hurricane by Saturday."

[Miss Kitty]

From Dr Masters' report (http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=751&tstamp=200708)
Posted by: JeffMasters (http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html), 4:13 PM EDT on August 16, 2007



"Dean is steadily moistening the environment around it, and may be able to overcome the dry air on Friday and put on a burst of rapid intensification. I expect Dean will become a large and extremely dangerous major hurricane by Saturday."

:angry: ...Mean Dean

[Lady D]

Looks like Dean might interfere with our trip. :pissed:

[Miss Kitty]

I read somewhere today that only a weather person could come up with the term...Tropical Depression. Kind of an oxymoron, no? :biggrin:

[DD]

Looks like Dean might interfere with our trip. :pissed:

Nahhhhh....think positive!

I think Erin just made her way to us though! It's pouring!:eek:

[kathydwells]

Nahhhhh....think positive!

I think Erin just made her way to us though! It's pouring!:eek:

I know you guys do not need anymore rain DD. Thinking about you. Boy, we sure could use some 7th straight day of over 100° temps. Worst drought here in 100 years. I have never seen it so dry. :eek:

[Smiling JOe]

"Dean pounded Martinique and St. Lucia this morning, and claimed its first victim when a 62-year old man died on St. Lucia while trying to save his cow from raging flood waters." -- Dr Master's report

:cry:

[Miss Kitty]

:( ...that is so sad.

So, where is this monster going now. I am afraid to look. A well meaning friend called me to keep my eyes on it because of my daddy in Houston. I know y'all will send sarafunn back if it is time. ;-)

[DD]

I know you guys do not need anymore rain DD. Thinking about you. Boy, we sure could use some 7th straight day of over 100° temps. Worst drought here in 100 years. I have never seen it so dry. :eek:

Awwwww..you're a doll, Darlene. Actually, we haven't had it nearly as bad as South Texas--Houston, etc., and the rain we got last night kept me from having to water today. But, our lakes are still full, so much rain would not be good. Hope you get some rain there soon! And some heat relief! :wave:

[Lady D]

We need rain here also. We have had 8 days straight of over 100 degrees. 8 people have died here during those 8 days. We have a 30% chance of thunderstorms for overnight. Hope we get it. From what I just saw on Dean if it stays at its current speed or faster it will take a more northerly trek and go into the gulf along between Louisiana and Texas and catch part of Mexico. But if it slows it will stay along the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds are at 145 mph right now but there have been peak gusts of 156. :eek: Hope it slows down so it will be more likely to stay south for several reasons, one is to spare Louisiana and Texas and the Panhandle any damage.

[Smiling JOe]

NOAA maps show the current sustained windspeeds at 135mph as of 8pm Eastern time. Where are you receiving your info? I'm wondering if you know of a more recently updated site. :idontno:

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200704.gif

[SHELLY]

Hope it slows down so it will be more likely to stay south for several reasons, one is to spare Louisiana and Texas and the Panhandle any damage.


The weather guy said tonight if Dean slows down, a low system that is currently moving east through the Southeast will pull it a but more to the north giving it a better chance of missing the Yucatan and hitting northern TX/LA. So for tonight at least...faster is better.

.

[Lady D]

Well, from what I heard on the weather last night if it picked up in speed, moving at least 18 mph or more then there was a good chance that it would be pulled farther north by the upper level low but if it slowed down then it would stay over the Yucatan Peninsula. And it is moving west at 17mph right now which is down from the 18 last night so I hope it keeps slowing down. They are saying it could be affecting Texas Thursday or Friday now if it doesn't fizzle out which doesn't look likely.

[Miss Kitty]

Dear Dean,

Go South young man! We don't need your type in Texas.

Sincerely,

Miss Kitty

[Lady D]

Dear Dean,

Go South young man! We don't need your type in Texas.

Sincerely,

Miss Kitty

Hopefully Miss Kitty it will stay over Mexico. I just got through looking at a map of Dean and now they are showing the direction as WNW. I want us to be able to come down to the beach this next weekend. The man has not deposited our check for the rental of the place either. Wondering whether he is waiting it out to see what it is going to do or to see what we are going to do that is. They were showing it in the southern part of the Gulf around Wednesday if it goes that direction, now they are showing it around Thursday or Friday instead. :(

[30A Skunkape]

We can all relax-I just heard Dawn Brown:wub: on the radio and she feels confident it will continue pretty much on its current route into Texico.

[Miss Kitty]

We can all relax-I just heard Dawn Brown:wub: on the radio and she feels confident it will continue pretty much on its current route into Texico.

From your mouth to God's ear! :clap:

[tropicwatch]

:( ...that is so sad.

So, where is this monster going now. I am afraid to look. A well meaning friend called me to keep my eyes on it because of my daddy in Houston. I know y'all will send sarafunn back if it is time. ;-)


I don't think Dean will make landfall in Mexico after passing Yucatan. Dean appears to be going to the northern edge of the forecast models making Dean a Texas storm. Of course the certainty of this is quite small at this point. When it gets close to Yucatan everybody will have a better idea of Dean's final destination or close proximity that is.


Tropicwatch (http://tropicwatch.info)

[Smiling JOe]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif

I'm certainly hoping that Hurr. Dean doesn't follow the CLP5 track, since currently, it is aiming at P'cola. :blink:

[tropicwatch]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif

I'm certainly hoping that Hurr. Dean doesn't follow the CLP5 track, since currently, it is aiming at P'cola. :blink:

Watch the GFDL which is put out by MIT, that one has had the best track record. I don't know why the 1800 run has not come out yet.

[Smiling JOe]

Watch the GFDL which is put out by MIT, that one has had the best track record. I don't know why the 1800 run has not come out yet.
My understanding, from reading Dr Jeff Masters' blogs, is that some of the models take much longer to run. I've read a bit about some of the various models' methods of calculation, but I have not seen the CPL5 before. Do you know how it is calculated?

I just found this little scientific description of why some models are late:

"Numerous objective forecast aids (guidance models) are available to help the NHC Hurricane Specialists in the preparation of their official track and intensity forecasts. Guidance models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether or not they are available to the Hurricane Specialist during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC (12Z) forecast cycle, which begins with the 12Z synoptic time and ends with the release of the official forecast at 15Z. The 12Z run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 16Z, or about an hour after the forecast is released - thus the 12Z GFS would be considered a late model since it could not be used to prepare the 12Z official forecast.

Multi-layer dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique can be used to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast to apply to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (06Z) run of the GFS would be adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 12Z) would exactly match the observed 12Z position and intensity of the tropical cyclone. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model for the 12Z forecast cycle that is based on the most current available guidance. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, for historical reasons, as interpolated models."


I see that the CPL5 model has historically been way off in terms of forecast area in miles, on average, being the least accurate of the models, with only three exceptions in particular years around the mid-1990's.

[tropicwatch]

CLP5: CLIPER5 (Climatology and Persistence model)-Statistical baseline

Found the information at http://www.ofcm.gov/p36-isrtc/pdf/10_appendices.pdf has great info pertaining to various models and more.

[greenroomsurfer]

Alright take it from a surfer, here is the best website radar picture in town. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html:welcome: 6153

[greenroomsurfer]

Opps I forgot the best swell model on the net. Funny part is they are out of England.http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[Smiling JOe]

I think you reposted the same link, rather than the swell link. :roll:

[greenroomsurfer]

Opps! Let's try this again http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW-Surf-Charts/9/

[Bobby J]

Opps! Let's try this again http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW-Surf-Charts/9/

I like www.wetsand.com (http://www.wetsand.com) as well. Those two should dial you in just right. Green room, what do you think???? East winds.... PC (secret spot that everyone knows) or had further East. Tuesday should be the day so far.... Let me know where you are going and maybe we can hook up.

[Bobby J]

http://www.wetsand.com/swellwatch/swellwatch.asp?locationid=2&tabid=1441&subtabid=0&CatId=301&SubCatID=301

Click on the day and it will show the swell.

[cp]

Dear Dean,

Go South young man! We don't need your type in Texas.

Sincerely,

Miss Kitty
:floor: :floor: :floor: you won't do,Miss Kitty. Hoping Dean will just sent some rain our way and to our neighbors in Bama.:wave:

[jodiFL]

Has anyone noticed or heard anything about ANOTHER system (tropical wave) that is forming just north of the Yucatan ?

[Arkiehawg]

Has anyone noticed or heard anything about ANOTHER system (tropical wave) that is forming just north of the Yucatan ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/avn-l.jpg

[Arkiehawg]

That is the only thing I see at the present and it's off of Africa

[jodiFL]

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm4/gulfofmexicosatellite_large.html
I saw it on a map somewhere else while looking for a better webcam and it was marked as a tropical wave.
If this thing starts to develop more it could have a big impact on the track of Dean but I havent heard anything about it anywhere else.

[Arkiehawg]

I saw that as well, but I can't find any forums and/or discussions that seem concerned. The only one their talking about besides Dean is the new formation off Africa....

[Smiling JOe]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/456x343/2xat_ir.gif?20078191048

You can see a little something on this infrared radar map.

[Smiling JOe]

check out this interactive floating map, tracking Hurr Dean...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

You can check boxes of what you want to see, like wind speeds, temp, winds gusts, etc.

[Smiling JOe]

Here is a link, showing what you guys are calling a tropical wave. Give it a moment to upload, then you can see it in motion. This map is also interactive. Look for the boxes at the top of the map.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[greenroomsurfer]

SJ it took too long to load i have adddddd. What was it that you were saying?:rofl: :floor: No really, loop the center of the gulf, notice a nice counter rotating thing. Watch out all. The phone hooks up to the laptop so when we are on the road I check it out and pop a few one liners on slowal through the day!:yikes:

[greenroomsurfer]

Going to gr8ton see ya there!:welcome:

[peapod1980]

Ugh, I am just sick about Hurricane Dean. We've been following it, and I am so sad about its collision course with Jamaica. I've been there a couple times, and the country is full of wonderful, warm people who have next to nothing. I almost hate reading the updates.

[sandflea]

Jamaican Radio

http://www.wrbn.net:9462/listen.pls

[sandflea]

ACK!!! One guy just called in and said he was losing his roof. You could hear the wind in the background!!! :shock: :yikes:

[peapod1980]

Jamaican Radio

http://www.wrbn.net:9462/listen.pls
sandflea, thanks so much!

[Lady D]

Well, so far, they are showing now a direct hit on the Yucatan Peninsula I believe Wednesday with 160mph winds. :yikes: Hope it stays in that location and doesn't head north. If any of it were to affect the gulf how far can out rain bands extend from out from a hurricane, especially a Category 5. I am going to check back on here around Thursday for updates on the conditions around the panhandle. I see no reason not to come if it is probably going ashore where it is. Noticed the man has still not deposited our check yet. He probably is waiting to see if we are going to cancel. Won't happen unless it treks the panhandle direction.

[Chickpea]

There is something quite perverse, albeit understanding, about wishing a hurricane would hit any area but ours!!

[Lady D]

There is something quite perverse, albeit understanding, about wishing a hurricane would hit any area but ours!!

I promise I was not drinking when I typed my reply. I cannot believe I made the same typo twice in the same paragraph. Of course, no one who is coming down for vacation and has paid for their lodging already wants a hurricane to hit the area they are coming to. Just as no one that lives in the area wants the hurricane hitting there either.

[seacliffes]

I have visited the Playa De Maya area many times and points south. Truly a world treasure IMO. The only silver lining is that I know is that these people will persevere and rebuild quickly with minimal government assistance. Having worked in Mexico city for a period of time I can attest to the work ethic of the professionals in that region and the motivation the coastal resort people have as well as the local town folk. Unlike one certain city in the USA, they will not wait around for governemnt handouts and you will be amazed at how fast they recover. Despite stereo types, these people work hard and they will be back quickly. My prayers are with them.........