Dismal Outlook [Archive] - SoWal.com Forum

Beachlover2

07-19-2007, 01:21 PM

From the Destin Log

Dismal outlook on Florida housing

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
July 17, 2007
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No Quick Comeback Seen for Housing

Noted economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com provided a sobering look at the Florida housing market last week as he addressed the Leaders Advantage program at the Southeast Building Conference (SEBC) in Orlando.
Zandi predicted the housing market is not likely to fully recover until 2010.
"The downturn actually started in June, 2005 so it’s two years old," said Zandi. "We think the cycle continues on a downward path in 2008 with 2009 as a stabilizing year and 2010 as a return to normal activity."
Zandi added that housing will not find its "bottom" until there is some significant combination of reduced production and price cuts.
"The worst of the decline is over but we're a long way from recovery," said Zandi.
The program was sponsored by Countrywide Home Loans and attracted 130 participants. Governor Charlie Crist keynoted the event and vowed continued work with the Legislature on Florida's serious problems of high property taxes and insurance.

Atlanta Bo

07-19-2007, 02:06 PM

Oh !!!! Thats just GREAT !!!!!

SHELLY

07-19-2007, 07:20 PM

I heard the Destin Log is going to lead with the Kennedy Assassination tomorrow.

:cool:

.

Smiling JOe

07-19-2007, 08:25 PM

When the market does turn upward, it will not be known until after the fact. Likely, it will not be recognized until several months after the fact. With the typical transaction taking 30 days at a minimum to close, the contracts will be written long before the public is aware that the market has turned. ;-)

SHELLY

07-19-2007, 09:43 PM

Smiling JOe

07-19-2007, 10:00 PM

A leading indicator would be declining attendance at the Realtors® Prayer Service. ;-)

.How often does this prayer circle meet? Did you attend the last one?

kurt

07-19-2007, 10:35 PM

Most national experts don't even think about the panhandle when they talk about Florida. Even officials in our own state have left us off the map at times.

BTW - the bottom is at 03:11 hours on 12/16/07.

SHELLY

07-19-2007, 10:42 PM

How often does this prayer circle meet? Did you attend the last one?

Unfortunately, I didn't attend the meeting...my people must have misplaced the invitation.

Don't know the schedule...the article stated:

"It was the first of what the organizers — co-owner of Crye Leike Coastal Realty Wanda Duke, former Destin City Councilman Mel Ponder and Destiny Worship Center Pastor Steve Vaggalis — hope will become a regular, uplifting event."

Suggest you contact Wanda, Mel or Steve if you're interested in attending the next one.

.

.

Smiling JOe

07-19-2007, 10:53 PM

Suggest you contact Wanda, Mel or Steve if you're interested in attending the next one.

I think I'll pass on that one. I don't need a group of Realtors and a Church in order to pray. ;-)

6thGen

07-20-2007, 05:55 AM

Most national experts don't even think about the panhandle when they talk about Florida. Even officials in our own state have left us off the map at times.

I've heard many say that the Panhandle is ground zero, due to the lack of job growth and percentage of speculators. It's thrown in there with Miami Beach proper, Naples, and other second home spots.

sandflea

07-20-2007, 09:04 AM

BeachSiO2

07-20-2007, 09:11 AM

kurt

07-20-2007, 09:54 AM

Good to know as that's my mom's birthday. Now I know what to get her...

A framed SoWal photo? :lol:

nmosley

07-20-2007, 11:06 AM

Happy Friday to all of you...thought I would send along as an FYI...
Have a safe and beautiful weekend!
Naj

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20670001&refer=&sid=a4qa.rYTWyYA

Smiling JOe

07-20-2007, 11:25 AM

I noticed a news story the other day, which mentioned the going rate to purchase one parking space in the bottom of the building in which you live (New York City) was $250,000. :eek: The article also mentioned it was rare to find a parking space for sale. Some people say that the mortgage on purchasing the parking space is cheaper than the monthly cost to rent a parking space.

...and I thought $250,000 was a lot of money for a 45'x75' lot. :funn: Lord help us all when the new airport starts taking direct flights to NYC.

flyforfun

07-20-2007, 11:29 AM

I think I'll pass on that one. I don't need a group of Realtors and a Church in order to pray. ;-)

Joe, don't ya know, Shelly only answers the phones at that large realestate office she works. She does not need an invitation, until they hand out pink slips for playing on the computer during office hours :-)

SHELLY

07-20-2007, 01:17 PM

Actually was at a luncheon yesterday and the topic was market conditions and from the information shared, the Panhandle being ground zero is the opposite. Apparantly our unemployment rate is currently at 2.4% (national is 4.4%) and expected to drop lower.

And the median income is?......

Considering the past employment growth for Walton County (see sectors below) and given the present economic/housing situation in the panhandle/state/nation (see output of credible financial news services) I bet the "Luncheon Folks" are betting the farm on the new airport...right?

Total Five-Year Employment Growth in Walton County (2001-mid2006)

The Full-service restaurants industry has brought the most jobs with a total of 673 employees finding new jobs in the industry. The employment growth in the Full-service restaurants industry makes up 9.9 percent of the growth in Walton County.

Top 5 Industries
1. Full-service restaurants (673 new jobs)
2. Building equipment contractors (562 new jobs)
3. Building finishing contractors (534 new jobs)
4. Offices of real estate agents and brokers (450 new jobs)
5. Traveler accommodation (444 new jobs)

In Walton County, Florida, the total number of workers for all sectors has increased by 7,770 jobs between mid-2001 and mid-2006.

Out of the 57 industry sectors (4-digit NAICS) with employment figures reported by the BLS in each quarter, 7 accounted an for increase in employment during the period and 50 industries reported employment loss in the period.

.

Uncle Timmy

07-20-2007, 02:38 PM

Dismal Outlook? Oh Puuhlease.

Highs in the upper 80's next week, nice breeze coming off the water. The sand is still white, the Gulf is an endless variety of blues and greens. Forecast calls for laidback beach living..............etc.

Lets call some folks stuck in smog and traffic in ATL and explain to them how dismal our future is here. Give 'em a few years and they'll be beating the door down again -desperate to buy into our 'dismal' little corner of the world.

PS -We are NOT south Florida. Chicken Littles, please retire to Boca.

6thGen

07-20-2007, 04:57 PM

Actually was at a luncheon yesterday and the topic was market conditions and from the information shared, the Panhandle being ground zero is the opposite. Apparantly our unemployment rate is currently at 2.4% (national is 4.4%) and expected to drop lower. Nationally and in other areas of Florida (namely Miami & Clearwater) sales are down 50% - in the Panhandle sales are down 13% in Walton County, 27% in Crestview, 24% in Destin, 23% in Fort Walton Beach. So really, we're a bit better off than most of Florida and the nation.

Another quiet hurricane season wouldnt hurt either (knock wood everyone!)

So if I have some real estate I bought in 2005, are you willing to give me a premium on it? And sales are down from when? Saying that Walton County is better off than most of Florida and the rest of the nation is turning a blind eye to fact. YTD lot sales on the 30A corridor are down 87% from 2005, and down 27% from 2006. Residential lot sales in Freeport are down 88% from 2005 and 69% from 2006. The only bright spot is detached single family, up 51% from 2006, but still down 52% from 2005. Pop the champagne and buy some real estate. Thanks to SJ for the figures.

sunshine

07-20-2007, 05:13 PM

And the median income is?......

Total Five-Year Employment Growth in Walton County (2001-mid2006)

The Full-service restaurants industry has brought the most jobs with a total of 673 employees finding new jobs in the industry. The employment growth in the Full-service restaurants industry makes up 9.9 percent of the growth in Walton County.

Top 5 Industries
1. Full-service restaurants (673 new jobs)
2. Building equipment contractors (562 new jobs)
3. Building finishing contractors (534 new jobs)
4. Offices of real estate agents and brokers (450 new jobs)
5. Traveler accommodation (444 new jobs)

In Walton County, Florida, the total number of workers for all sectors has increased by 7,770 jobs between mid-2001 and mid-2006.

Out of the 57 industry sectors (4-digit NAICS) with employment figures reported by the BLS in each quarter, 7 accounted an for increase in employment during the period and 50 industries reported employment loss in the period.

.

Shelly, I completely agree with you and understand that the type of employment we have here does not make for the most stable form of economy. However, I'm confused by the numbers you posted above.

Per these numbers, the total number of workers for all sectors increased by 7770 jobs, and the total number of the top 5 of the only 7 sectors to post an increase was 2663. The most added jobs that #'s 6 & 7 on the list could be 888 (tying with # 5, Traveler Accomodations), leaving a total gain of 3551 new jobs, 4219 jobs short of the 7770. That's not taking into account the 50 industries reporting a loss.

I'm not trying to challenge, but I do find these types of numbers interesting and am curious what I missed.

Thanks,

Smiling JOe

07-20-2007, 05:25 PM

Shelly, I completely agree with you and understand that the type of employment we have here does not make for the most stable form of economy. However, I'm confused by the numbers you posted above.

Per these numbers, the total number of workers for all sectors increased by 7770 jobs, and the total number of the top 5 of the only 7 sectors to post an increase was 2663. The most added jobs that #'s 6 & 7 on the list could be 888 (tying with # 5, Traveler Accomodations), leaving a total gain of 3551 new jobs, 4219 jobs short of the 7770. That's not taking into account the 50 industries reporting a loss.

I'm not trying to challenge, but I do find these types of numbers interesting and am curious what I missed.

Thanks,

I also noticed a discrepancy in the numbers. In particular, the message states, "The employment growth in the Full-service restaurants industry makes up 9.9 percent of the growth in Walton County." If that is true, then the following statement also made, cannot be true: "Full-service restaurants (accounts for) 673 new jobs."

673 new jobs would equate to 8.66% of the total growth in Walton County.

I, too, am not challenging the basis of the premise that the jobs in this area don't equate to the employees being able to afford housing. I do agree with that. I do question the validity of the actual numbers since the math doesn't add up. ;-)

SHELLY

07-20-2007, 07:27 PM

I'm not trying to challenge, but I do find these types of numbers interesting and am curious what I missed.

Thanks,

Let me try to help clarify the "All Sector" employment increase of 7,700 in Walton County:

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) keeps tabs on over 1100 industries. It breaks them into 2 Major categories: Goods-Producing and Service-Providing, Under these two major headings are 12 "Super Sectors," each super sector is further broken down into 20 industry sectors, each given a 2-digit NAICS (North American Industry Classification System)--see listing below:

Goods-Producing

Natural resources and mining

Sector 11 (Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting)
Sector 21 (Mining)

Construction

Sector 23 (Construction)

Manufacturing

Sector 31-33 (Manufacturing)

Service-Providing

Trade, transportation, and utilities

Sector 42 (Wholesale trade)
Sector 44-45 (Retail trade)
Sector 48-49 (Transportation and warehousing)
Sector 22 (Utilities)

Information

Sector 51 (Information)

Financial activities

Sector 52 (Finance and insurance)
Sector 53 (Real estate and rental and leasing)

Professional and business services

Sector 54 (Professional, scientific, and tech services)
Sector 55 (Management of companies and enterprises)
Sector 56 (Admin and support,waste mgt)

Education and health services

Sector 61 (Education services)
Sector 62 (Health care and social assistance)

Leisure and hospitality

Sector 71 (Arts, entertainment, and recreation)
Sector 72 (Accommodation and food services)

Other services

Sector 81 (Other services, except public admin)

Public administration

Sector 92 (Public administration)

Unclassified

Sector 99 (Unclassified)

Each 2-digit NAICS is further broken down.

Let’s look at Walton’s #1 employment growth area: Full Service Restaurants.
-----------------------------------------------------
The Super Sector is: Service Providing-Leisure and Hospitality

The Industry Sector (2-digit NAICS) is: Sector 72 (Accommodation and Food Service)

The 3-digit NAICS for the industry are:
721: Accommodation
722: Food Services and Drinking Places

The 4-digit NAICS under Food Services & Drinking Places are:
7221: Full Service Restaurants
7222: Limited Service Eating Places (Cafeterias, Snack Bars)
7223: Special Food Service (Caterers, Roach Coaches)
7224: Drinking Places

The 5 & 6-digit NAICS under Food Services & Drinking Places are:
722111 Full Service Restaurants (Fine, Fam Style, pizza etc.)
---------------------------------------------------

So the “57 4-digit NAICS” BLS employment information reported in the above case could mean that there is an employment increase in Full Service Restaurant employees, but a decrease in employment in bartenders, caterers and snack bar attendants.

Over the period of time surveyed (2001-2006) increases in 7 of the 4-digit NAICS (given this area’s reliance on tourism and real estate) and decreases in 50 4-digit NAICS which probably included industries such as agriculture and manufacturing-- was not unlikely as farmers, teachers and truck drivers joined the rush to obtain their real estate licenses or work with homebuilders.

(BTW, the above statistics are from ecanned.com)

.

.

elgordoboy

07-20-2007, 10:37 PM

Let me try to help clarify the "All Sector" employment increase of 7,700 in Walton County:

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) keeps tabs on over 1100 industries. It breaks them into 2 Major categories: Goods-Producing and Service-Providing, Under these two major headings are 12 "Super Sectors," each super sector is further broken down into 20 industry sectors, each given a 2-digit NAICS (North American Industry Classification System)--see listing below:

Goods-Producing

Natural resources and mining

Sector 11 (Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting)
Sector 21 (Mining)

Construction

Sector 23 (Construction)

Manufacturing

Sector 31-33 (Manufacturing)

Service-Providing

Trade, transportation, and utilities

Sector 42 (Wholesale trade)
Sector 44-45 (Retail trade)
Sector 48-49 (Transportation and warehousing)
Sector 22 (Utilities)

Information

Sector 51 (Information)

Financial activities

Sector 52 (Finance and insurance)
Sector 53 (Real estate and rental and leasing)

Professional and business services

Sector 54 (Professional, scientific, and tech services)
Sector 55 (Management of companies and enterprises)
Sector 56 (Admin and support,waste mgt)

Education and health services

Sector 61 (Education services)
Sector 62 (Health care and social assistance)

Leisure and hospitality

Sector 71 (Arts, entertainment, and recreation)
Sector 72 (Accommodation and food services)

Other services

Sector 81 (Other services, except public admin)

Public administration

Sector 92 (Public administration)

Unclassified

Sector 99 (Unclassified)

Each 2-digit NAICS is further broken down.

Let’s look at Walton’s #1 employment growth area: Full Service Restaurants.
-----------------------------------------------------
The Super Sector is: Service Providing-Leisure and Hospitality

The Industry Sector (2-digit NAICS) is: Sector 72 (Accommodation and Food Service)

The 3-digit NAICS for the industry are:
721: Accommodation
722: Food Services and Drinking Places

The 4-digit NAICS under Food Services & Drinking Places are:
7221: Full Service Restaurants
7222: Limited Service Eating Places (Cafeterias, Snack Bars)
7223: Special Food Service (Caterers, Roach Coaches)
7224: Drinking Places

The 5 & 6-digit NAICS under Food Services & Drinking Places are:
722111 Full Service Restaurants (Fine, Fam Style, pizza etc.)
---------------------------------------------------

So the “57 4-digit NAICS” BLS employment information reported in the above case could mean that there is an employment increase in Full Service Restaurant employees, but a decrease in employment in bartenders, caterers and snack bar attendants.

Over the period of time surveyed (2001-2006) increases in 7 of the 4-digit NAICS (given this area’s reliance on tourism and real estate) and decreases in 50 4-digit NAICS which probably included industries such as agriculture and manufacturing-- was not unlikely as farmers, teachers and truck drivers joined the rush to obtain their real estate licenses or work with homebuilders.

(BTW, the above statistics are from ecanned.com)

.

.
Think I'm gonna have to have 6thGen's better than %99.99999999999999 of humanity's IQ to get my mind around this.

BrettMan

07-20-2007, 11:36 PM

I'm sticking with my prediction....

http://www.sowal.com/bb/showpost.php?p=167637&postcount=12

GRAHAM GINSBERG

07-20-2007, 11:42 PM

https://vip.megaproxy.com/go/http://www.apublicrock.com/images/Farrock3b.jpg
Is this the future of SOWAL beaches? You think you got problems...

New Jersey & New York Public Trust Doctrine (https://vip.megaproxy.com/go/http://www.nynjbaykeeper.org/photo/PTDMANUAL.pdf)
http://www.apublicrock.com/theugly.htm

Mango

07-21-2007, 12:44 AM

:blink:

BlueMtnBeachVagrant

07-21-2007, 01:05 AM

:blink::blink: :shock: :eek: :yikes:
I can't believe I actually made a post like this. Feels good!;-)

John R

07-21-2007, 08:28 AM

could this (http://www.nynjbaykeeper.org/pdffiles/ptddocedit.pdf) be what your public trust doctrine link was supposed to go to?

sandflea

07-21-2007, 10:01 AM

kurt

07-21-2007, 10:11 AM

Actually 6th, it IS the best time to buy :D

There is NO doubt our market is down. With the spike in prices we experience in 2004, the market had to stabilize. No way could have continued on that path. Will we ever get to that stage again? I certainly hope not.

Real Estate is cyclical- the good thing about being on the down side is we know there is going to be an upside. We've been down for a while so nowhere to go but UP :)

There may still be room to go downward but much success can be had buying on the way down and the way up if you are able. For many investors buying at the nadir is not, and should not, be the primary goal.

Smiling JOe

07-21-2007, 02:01 PM

When you begin reading it in the news, the time is often too late. :eek:

Rambunkscious

07-22-2007, 12:17 AM

NADIR???????????

WTF!!!!!! Can you please speak English???

Buyin at the NADIR (oh my God) means buying at the bottom.......

us rednecks around here hate this bs kind of language and it sounds like some confused yankeetalk ................

I suggest this buying at the NADIR is what its all about , it seperates us men from you innocent little boys.

Rambunkscious

07-22-2007, 11:07 AM

Sorry about that, I see your point I think, just got carried away and everybody has different words for different things, excuse my d/a redneck
post.

kurt

07-22-2007, 11:30 AM

Sorry about that, I see your point I think, just got carried away and everybody has different words for different things, excuse my d/a redneck
post.

:roll: :rofl: :roll:

Beach Bimmer

07-23-2007, 08:45 AM

Is he related to Ralph Nadir, author of that legendary book about Florida real estate?

Wait for it...

"Unsafe At Any Speed"