Is JOE worth buying ???

[goofer44]

in view of blackstone buying Hilton Hotels ( i wonder if paris is part of the deal) is it worth buying JOE as a speculation?? I have been waiting for JOE to hit 40. Granted that HLT and JOE are separate biz models but there has been alot of activity in the reit sector regard buyouts this year and I am wondering if the next activity will be in companies like JOE or even some homebuilders who are selling at or below book value. there is an excellent research report by smith barney that was published thursday that is really good, discussing homebuilders and the recovery that THEY think will start next year. after the reset of adjustables in the next six months and the subsequent flush, maybe the recovery will start next year :idontno: But in any event is it worth putting some money into JOE now (25%) and waiting ?

[drsvelte]

I have limit order in to buy JOE @ 26.

[goofer44]

take a "nothing done" on your order.

[drsvelte]

"nothing done" Huh?

[goofer44]

that means you will never buy the stock at that price ever. I have a hard time seeing it at under 40 :idontno: i used to be a trader on wall st. and "nothing done" meant you did not execute your order.

[drsvelte]

that means you will never buy the stock at that price ever.

Maybe. A bottom fish at '03 prices is OK with me. There is some support at around 42. But I'll wait - no rush on this.

[SHELLY]

in view of blackstone buying Hilton Hotels ( i wonder if paris is part of the deal) is it worth buying JOE as a speculation?? I have been waiting for JOE to hit 40. Granted that HLT and JOE are separate biz models but there has been alot of activity in the reit sector regard buyouts this year and I am wondering if the next activity will be in companies like JOE or even some homebuilders who are selling at or below book value. there is an excellent research report by smith barney that was published thursday that is really good, discussing homebuilders and the recovery that THEY think will start next year. after the reset of adjustables in the next six months and the subsequent flush, maybe the recovery will start next year :idontno: But in any event is it worth putting some money into JOE now (25%) and waiting ?


What exactly would Blackstone do with JOE once they got their hands on it? They usually jump in to make money fast and get out of Dodge. The way they can accomplish that is to flush all of Placemaker JOEs 'amenities promises' down the drain; have a BIG fire sale on the leftover lots; carve up the swamp land and sell it off at dirt cheap prices; and sell off any hotels, condos and homes that are on the books.

JOE's P/E is @ 51 vs GOOG @ 46...what's up with that? In June JOE sold off 15 office buildings (to bolster its quarterly earnings no doubt.) Why offer to buy JOE shares at a premium when Blackstone can just wait patiently and scrape JOE off their shoe later on down the line?


.

[goofer44]

Shelly

I am not saying blackstone would buy JOE but another private equity firm or a strategic buyer. you do not buy JOE or any real estate play based on earnings but on asset value. JOE's mkt cap is $3.5 billion. with a million acres you are paying $3500 an acre for PRIMO acreage. not alot of debt and a substantial amount of completed physical plant. seems cheap to me going forward. smith barney's report is compelling on their analysis of homebuilders looking out 3 years.

[SHELLY]

Shelly

seems cheap to me going forward. smith barney's report is compelling on their analysis of homebuilders looking out 3 years.

Well then, by all means...buy 25% starting tomorrow :D


.

[egrp]

Shelly

I am not saying blackstone would buy JOE but another private equity firm or a strategic buyer. you do not buy JOE or any real estate play based on earnings but on asset value. JOE's mkt cap is $3.5 billion. with a million acres you are paying $3500 an acre for PRIMO acreage. not alot of debt and a substantial amount of completed physical plant. seems cheap to me going forward. smith barney's report is compelling on their analysis of homebuilders looking out 3 years.

goofer the private equity binge on real estate is a leverage play. They find assets that are generating cash flow and then purchase them with debt to increase return on equity. private equity has no interest at all in buying assets that will take generations to produce earnings. These guys are paid on annual profits (20-40%), so the heat is on to produce strong positive returns every year. In summary, it is laughable to think private equity would buy JOE...now another homebuilder, etc. is a different story and i actually would not be surprised if that happens.

[goodwitch58]

I heard Resort Quest was just sold again...anyone know and if so, who bought it this time? (Sorry to hijack but your post made me think of this)

[kathydwells]

I heard Resort Quest was just sold again...anyone know and if so, who bought it this time? (Sorry to hijack but your post made me think of this)

Just Read THIS. (http://www.islandpacket.com/news/business/story/6541424p-5821326c.html)

[goofer44]

ok..thanks for the input. i will wait until JOE dribbles down to 40 to start buying. I guess there is no reason to start now at 47.

[SHELLY]

ok..thanks for the input. i will wait until JOE dribbles down to 40 to start buying. I guess there is no reason to start now at 47.

Goofer,

Get ready to pull the trigger on JOE @ 40...today's the day.


.

[egrp]

nasty nasty day for the mkt...its been a while...still would be leary of homebuilders and financials with mortgage exposure. the mortgage exposure companies may be a bit oversold as i think jobs and income will still keep losses fairly low even though loan to values are creeping up...but homebuilders....they will continue to get hurt

[goofer44]

shelly

i have my $40 bid in for 500 shares to get started. they report on the 31st.
i will scale down my position to 35 over time and then wait .
i really dodged a major bullet when i pulled my bids in the homebuilders. WWHEW !! i want to own JOE since i am down here and talk to some of the middle mgt guys and i see what the potential is over the long term.
i am adding to my position in home depot. there is a dutch tender on the table from 39-44 but i am not sure in this environment hd can do the financing. if they can do the deal it will significantly reduce the float.

[goofer44]

i am adding to C and BAC. note that bank of america raised their dividend by 14% to an annual $2.56 which yields 5.3%. not a bad return while you wait for the fear to leave the mkt. 85% is tax exempt under present law. the major money center banks are not exposed to any serious degree to sub prime. imho i think you are getting a GREAT opty to buy some of the great financial companies while they are on the clearance table.

[Smiling JOe]

I like C, but BAC really pissed me off when I was a customer, many years ago when they started charging me to walk in the door to deposit money. Over the years, I heard many other individuals whom they have greatly upset via terrible practices. I know they focus on the businesses as their customers, but if they abuse the everyday individual, they will not think twice about abusing their larger accounts. For those reasons, I would never help them continue their mission, whatever that happens to be.

[goofer44]

jeez...i am really surprised. i have my checking acct at bac. no fees, very helpful and friendly people ( in sedona, anyway ), and the best internet banking i have ever experienced. they are making tons of money because they are global and well diversified. as a shareholder i am pleased and as a customer i am very pleased. they are the only bank besides wachovia that have branches in the places i hang out. btw, i just opened an acct at wachovia. they own World Savings which they got through by buying golden west financial. world savings has the best cd reates in the country.
worldsavings.com.

[Smiling JOe]

Glad to hear that you are having a better experience than me and people I know who had accounts at BAC. Maybe they have changed their ways somewhat, but I still hear accounts of people who are treated without a care in the world about keeping them as customers at BAC.

Fundamentally, BAC looks good on paper, but when I invest, it isn't 100% about the money. I also have to feel good about the company and their practice, and I just don't get that feeling with BAC. To each his own, though. That IS what makes the world go around, and keeps it interesting.

[goofer44]

amen, brother.
life is a marathon, not a sprint.

[Paige]

I would not buy any stock hoping for a private equity take over right now. The private equity firms are being squeezed by the banks.

[drsvelte]

In this credit environment, I don't think any buyouts of JOE are feasible. I like the long-term asset play, but I'm going to wait until 26-31.

[Rambunkscious]

The state of Florida, & expecially northwest coastal Florida (Joe Country) has
so many problems now that buying Joe would probably not be a prudent move maybe unless it hits 20 or so. Their developments have stalled, the current
Florida real estate environment is at historic low levels, the demand for Joes inventory (building lots) is dismal given the historic high levels of foreclosed homes and a five year supply of new homes on the market at present. The current problems are not getting solved and Florida and Joe will continue to suffer.

[SHELLY]

JOE's conference call is on Tuesday, Jul 31...will be interesting to see how they spin the current and future markets and gloss over how their stock is trading at the 2004 price level.

Given the current state of affairs with conventional stick-home-builders, I imagine they'll really talk up their most current strategic alliance with the modular homebuilder they're using for their WaterSound properties.

I won't be too surprised if we get some kind of "Airport Update" on Jul 30 so Pete can put a happy face on JOE's future.....we'll see.

.

[Rambunkscious]

Shelly, there's talk about Joe using modular homes at other Joe communities. There are physical and architectural limitations on modular construction. Joe has never been one to do something like this.This demonstrates how desperate they are and rightfully so. I think they are trying to hit a lower price point with a smaller home with generic designs. The airport is their only holy grail & could be the shot that would gradually turn things around. And then if things get really ugly, maybe rates will drop way down again, it is a bad situation but they have always pulled things out.......what do you think?

[Smiling JOe]

Shelly, there's talk about Joe using modular homes at other Joe communities. There are physical and architectural limitations on modular construction. Joe has never been one to do something like this.This demonstrates how desperate they are and rightfully so. I think they are trying to hit a lower price point with a smaller home with generic designs. The airport is their only holy grail & could be the shot that would gradually turn things around. And then if things get really ugly, maybe rates will drop way down again, it is a bad situation but they have always pulled things out.......what do you think?

There are also physical and architectural limitation when building on postage stamp size lots. Remember that JOE paid almost nothing for its property, so they can still profit from selling lots for cheap. Now that might not sit well with shareholders because all they care about is the stock price moving up, which has more to do with public opinion rather than business fundamentals.

[Rambunkscious]

Smiling Joe, agreed, & it would not sit well either with other lot owners & homeowners who have paid much more for their lots & houses. There is almost no way out for Joe here, but self preservation is a strong motivator.

[goofer44]

St. Joe as an entity has been around for almost 80 years !!! Every industry, as well as the economy in general, have their hiccups and catastrophes. It is all part of the natural ebb and flow called the business cycle. As sure as day follows nite, the real estate mkt and St. Joe the stock, will recover and prosper. The antidote is time and and further pain. The analogy is cancer. The patient needs surgery, chemo therapy, and recuperative time to return to health. I think the surgery has been performed and chemo is now being administered. If ones has a longer term perspective, the present condition offers a wonderful opty. Be prudent and use common sense. Don't gamble with the rent money. As the bible says, "THIS TOO SHALL PASS".

[Chickpea]

St. Joe as an entity has been around for almost 80 years !!! Every industry, as well as the economy in general, have their hiccups and catastrophes. It is all part of the natural ebb and flow called the business cycle. As sure as day follows nite, the real estate mkt and St. Joe the stock, will recover and prosper. The antidote is time and and further pain. The analogy is cancer. The patient needs surgery, chemo therapy, and recuperative time to return to health. I think the surgery has been performed and chemo is now being administered. If ones has a longer term perspective, the present condition offers a wonderful opty. Be prudent and use common sense. Don't gamble with the rent money. As the bible says, "THIS TOO SHALL PASS".

Agreed! I would imagine that any smart developer would understand the often predictable cycle or roller coaster ride (possibly more apt term) of real estate and housing- what goes up will come down and will go up again - eventually.

[Chickpea]

There are also physical and architectural limitation when building on postage stamp size lots. .

Small is the new big....

[SHELLY]

Agreed! I would imagine that any smart developer would understand the often predictable cycle or roller coaster ride (possibly more apt term) of real estate and housing- what goes up will come down and will go up again - eventually.

There are people out there who think that we'll see a repeat of the 2004-06 frenzied high-priced condo/home/lot grab & flip.....I'd bet the rent money that it's not going to happen again in my lifetime.



.

[Rambunkscious]

Shelly, remember you are only 29 years old and your lifetime is going to go out into the next century. Please reconsider your betting of the rent money.

[SHELLY]

Shelly, remember you are only 29 years old and your lifetime is going to go out into the next century. Please reconsider your betting of the rent money.

29? Must be the Botox.


.

[drsvelte]

I have a hard time seeing it at under 40 Said goofer

Well, JOE is at 39.42 now.

[robertsondavies]

My bias is against shorting JOE is over now (actually has been over for a few dollars), and I agree that a long bias should be investigated slowly now.


Doubling Down?? Averaging Down?? Many a fortune were painfully thrown to the wind, during the last popping bubble (Tech/Internet Stocks in 2001 through 2002 end) by betting that the "good times" would come back quickly, rather than die painfully until everyone HATES the asset class.

When my neighbors and your neighbors start speaking of real estate investments, as poison, it'll be time to re-invest fully.

time will tell.

[goofer44]

drsvelte

I am losing 58 cents on 500 shares. Yikes.....the sky is falling !!! :floor:

[SHELLY]

Goofer,

Here is Cramer's rendition of what an "Economic Meltdown" looks like:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eaMj1DPI6U

:cool:


.

[goofer44]

I, for one do not want to see the Fed lower the fed funds rate this week. It would send a signal that anyone who has screwed up because of their own greed or stupidity would be bailed out by the Fed. Individuals as wells as corporations need to be held responsible for their own actions. Only if the general economy and the broad financial system is breached by the credit crunch caused by subprime/junk bond financing and a domino effect hits the financial system, should the Fed act by lowering rates. But we are far from that. Banks have tightened up their lending requirements only recently. The fear caused by the bankruptcy of various subprime mortgage companies and the blow up of 2 Bear Stearns hedge funds that invested in subprime junk, were the events that caused the financial panic the last 10 days. On further reflection,those may be just the excuses for a much needed correction of 10% in the market. It was just 2 short weeks ago when everyone was celebrating Dow 14000 !! There will be further financial "thumpins" in the weeks ahead but I do not think the large money center banks and investment banks will fail. They will have big write downs but they will prevail. The poorly managed institutions such as subprime and junk financings investors {hedge funds} and providers of subprime credit (such as American Home) , will suffer most of the carnage and bankruptcies. I have said before that the only way to cure the cancer is radical surgery......that is what is happening now. The job of the astute investor is to identify the opportunities and buy the companies that have been tossed out because of the panic that has ensued. If the Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citicorp or Goldman Sachs were to ever fail.....that would create a world-wide depression worse than 1929-1932. We are very far from that happening.

[drsvelte]

Goofer...

I think you are right about the possibility that there may soon be a buying opportunity in some stocks. But I don't think that includes JOE. This company is totally premised on using their land for development. There is a huge inventory overhang in Florida currently (and particularly Bay County where JOE has a lot of property), which will take some time to work off. Given tightened mortgage hurdles, higher rates, and the uncertainty surrounding the sub-prime, Alt, etc mortgages, this stock is not going anywhere soon.

I am not ragging you about JOE going under $40, but you said this was very unlikely. Look at the chart, there is distribution big time. You'd be a better buyer at 31.

[SHELLY]

The poorly managed institutions such as subprime and junk financings investors {hedge funds} and providers of subprime credit (such as American Home) , will suffer most of the carnage and bankruptcies. .

Almost none of American Home Mortgage loans was subprime...they were essentially adjustable rate and Alt-A mortgages (no doc/low doc for people with good credit scores who couldn't--or wouldn't--show documented income such as investulators, folks working on commission, Mafia, drug dealers and the like). My guess is that the Mafia and drug dealers are keeping up with their mortgage payments just fine.


.

[goofer44]

drsvelte

you may be right about JOE going to 31. trading at 37 now. Its trading down like a hot knife through butta !!!

[goofer44]

Housing stocks in orbit. Did the FED's action of recognizing the credit issues create the bottom in housing, bank, and broker stocks ???? Comments ??

[SHELLY]

Housing stocks in orbit. Did the FED's action of recognizing the credit issues create the bottom in housing, bank, and broker stocks ???? Comments ??

Nah, nah, nah.


.

[goofer44]

ALL I am saying is that the issue of a credit crunch and foreclosures on middle income families has now caught the PUBLIC attention of the Federal Reserve. It is also now front and center in the POLITICAL arena and Presidential debates. I have no clue if this starts a sea change but it is certainly something to start thinking about. If FNM or congress comes to the rescue to ward off foreclosures.....doesn't that warrant something ??? My interest is in the stock market NOT buying Real Estate. May be the stock market will start to think about whether or not something may be afoot !!! :idontno:

[Smiling JOe]

Goofer, have you been on Hillary's website (http://www.hillaryclinton.com/), today? You may be on to something.

[goofer44]

I would only go on her website if I wanted material and pictures to create a dart board !! But it just makes sense to me that as we are in the political season, an awful lot of "stuff" can happen in Washington that might focus on saving stupid people from their stupid mistakes.
When the Fed starts to acknowledge the problem publically and the leading presidential candidates make noises AND the speculators are talking of "things" going on behind the scence at Treasury regarding Hank Paulsen, Fannie Mae and the pols.......this all bears watching. We may be seeing the BEGINNING of the journey towards the end of the housing depression !!!

[drsvelte]

Nah, nah, nah.


You don't have AFLAC???:eek:

[SHELLY]

We may be seeing the BEGINNING of the journey towards the end of the housing depression !!!

"Housing depression?" :idontno:

.

[BeachSiO2]

"Housing depression?" :idontno:

.


Yes, the houses are sad that they were built and are now sitting empty. They yearn for the pitter patter of little feet and joyous celebration like their "friends" in other established neighborhoods have. Houses have feelings too. Maybe what the market needs is really medical help, not financial :floor: :leaving:

[SHELLY]

Goofer...

I think you are right about the possibility that there may soon be a buying opportunity in some stocks. But I don't think that includes JOE. This company is totally premised on using their land for development. There is a huge inventory overhang in Florida currently (and particularly Bay County where JOE has a lot of property), which will take some time to work off. Given tightened mortgage hurdles, higher rates, and the uncertainty surrounding the sub-prime, Alt, etc mortgages, this stock is not going anywhere soon.

I am not ragging you about JOE going under $40, but you said this was very unlikely. Look at the chart, there is distribution big time. You'd be a better buyer at 31.

Some food for thought on JOE from David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital (circa August 7, 2007)

David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital on St. Joes Corp.


The per acre analyses used by most St. Joe bulls exclude selling expenses and taxes. I believe that the equivalent gross value to the $9,000 an acre used in your analysis is the equivalent of $18,000 an acre, when taking expenses and taxes into account.

As it was, I did not quantify any amount of swampland at the Ira Sohn conference. I simply noted that some of the land is swampland. The weather is much worse than South Florida (just as hot in the summer and cooler in the winter), there are a lot of mosquitoes, there is not a lot to do, and the demographics are poor. I noted that I thought St. Joe overplayed the value of land within ten miles of the ocean and noted that I thought that vacationers would prefer to be "on the ocean." More than a mile is too far for many families to walk to the beach. Finally, I thought the airport development is the type of story often seen in promotional stocks designed to buy years of time to encourage the market to ignore current financial results. The current airport does not operate near capacity. Airports in Jacksonville an Ft. Myers did not spur a lot of development next to their airports and it is odd the St. Joe seems to believe that a lot of people will want to live near the airport, as if that is a residential attraction.

As I pointed out in my speech, since 2001, St. Joe has sold 268,000 acres at an average price of under $2,000 an acre. Since my speech, St. Joe announced another quarter where they sold over 30,000 additional acres at $1,500 an acre. As such, I don't see that it is very challenging to determine a value for most of St. Joe's land. Assuming they haven't sold the most salable stuff first, it appears that undeveloped land is worth on average sub $2,000 an acre before expenses.

I believe that about 680,000 of the remaining 739,000 acres are similarly undeveloped. Assuming St. Joe has no un-salable tracts of swampland and all the undeveloped land could be sold for $2,000 an acre, it would be worth $1.36 billion gross or about $700 million after selling expenses and taxes.

St Joe has just under 20,000 acres in development (some of which has already been sold). They have an additional 21,000 acres "In Pre-Development", meaning they have land use entitlements, but they are still evaluating the development or need additional permits. They have another 10,000 acres they are planning to entitle.

The developed projects have a book value of $800 million. St. Joe is not making good margins on selling developed property. Residential and commercial land sales have not covered its overhead in any quarter since 2005, when it was still in the homebuilding business. St. Joe is one of very few companies that has spent large amounts on residential development and has not taken any impairment in the current environment. To give St. Joe the benefit of the doubt, let's say the developments could be worth 1.5x book or $1.2 billion.

On that analysis St. Joe is worth $1.9 billion. Subtract $400 million of debt, leaves $1.5 billion of equity or $20 per share. I believe that adding in the time value of money would take this analysis down to the $15 number I used at the conference.

Regards,
de

[goofer44]

http://stocksbelowncav.blogspot.com/2007/08/david-einhorn-of-greenlight-capital.html


This was the contra case Einhorn was responding to.

[Mango]

Yes, the houses are sad that they were built and are now sitting empty. They yearn for the pitter patter of little feet and joyous celebration like their "friends" in other established neighborhoods have. Houses have feelings too. Maybe what the market needs is really medical help, not financial :floor: :leaving:

:lolabove: House Prozac? :idontno: :wave:

[robertsondavies]

I've been quite bearish on JOE, but lose a bit of respect for Einhorn (the vaunted Einhorn) after reading his self - interested post lowballing the valuation on JOE... Einhorn, the smartest guy in the room, was as LONG subprime mortgage lenders as anyone... and at times I'm told can be dismissive and arrogant ; I've been on conference calls with him, where in 2005 he was dismissing bearish views on New Century and Accredited H L, as so idiotic and novice as to be laughable... I'll admit he was very much the right way on that trade for a while, but i don't think that he'll admit that - in the end - it was he, D. E. the great, who absolutely called it wrong in the largest sense, despite trading it right for a while while riding mo'.

It's because of guys like Einhorn, who don't understand the panhandle, as most New Yorkers (not all of course) don't get it... that there will be an opportunity to buy JOE soon. I'm encouraged that D.E. the great is short. I like to have some healthy "built-in" covering demand for stocks I'm considering buying, and hope these New Yorkers push this JOE down real real low. sub 25 would be great, but I'll probably not wait that long to start buying.

[goofer44]

Robert

I think you should know that I am a born and bred New yorker. I moved to Sedona in 2004 and bought my building lot in Watersound in 2002. But I will always be a New Yorker. I tell you this in the interest of full disclosure because this is one New yorker who thinks JOE is a great long term holding. I may be foolish in starting my position at 40 but I only bought 500 shares....my next buy point will be at 36 amd so on until it gets to 30, if ever. I am not smart enough to know when the bottom is in JOE or the mkt in general ,but I believe there is value now in JOE as well as the money center banks. There is so much volatility in the stock market now that some great opportunities are, and have been created...and for all anyone knows things could get worse BUT NO ONE KNOWS. But I am very comgortable buying beaten down great companies now. AIG C BAC CB COP GE HAL MO as well as other blue chips, all got clobbered in the last 10 days. I think it was because of the need of hedge funds and other entities to raise cash to meet margin calls and the big uglies are very liquid and easy to sell. You saw that on Thursday and Friday when GE finally got hit. The worst may be over BUT JOE, LOW, HD and MAS are the only housing related companies I would buy now. :idontno:

[drsvelte]

Obviously, Einhorns' "analysis" is completely self-serving and what one would expect of a short. I think JOE has more long-term value than he does. But this won't be viable for some time; maybe not 'till 2010 or so. So you do need to discount back to PV. The 2001-2002 price, prior to the liquidity boom in the 23-29 range would be a good buy.

[SHELLY]

The absence of infrastructure (roads, water, sewer, power) makes huge swatches of JOE land overvalued--even before considering the current falling prices for land.

IMO some folks are still clinging to the notion that real estate is a fantastic investment--much like some thought of tech as it slid down in 2000.

Tech has a chance of clawing its way back up again in time...but when the dust after the pop settles, real estate will revert back to normal--returning just over the rate of inflation.


.

[SHELLY]

Robert

I tell you this in the interest of full disclosure because this is one New yorker who thinks JOE is a great long term holding. I may be foolish in starting my position at 40 but I only bought 500 shares....my next buy point will be at 36 amd so on until it gets to 30, if ever. :idontno:

Time for another Cup O' JOE at <35...<34...<33?

JOE has sold off all 17 of its office buildings (there goes that revenue down the tubes)--what are they going to sell for "income" next?

kinda reminds me of an old joke:

------------------------
A farmer walks into a bar with a three-legged pig. The bartender asks, "How come that pig's missing a leg?"

"Well," says the farmer, "there was a big fire. My house burned right down to the ground. My family and I all would have burned up with it if this pig hadn't come into the flaming, smoke-filled house and dragged each of us out, one by one."

"Wow," says the bartender, respectfully.

"Yep," says the farmer, "and you just don't eat a pig like that all at once."

-----------------



.

[robertsondavies]

so close to buying here... JOE is 33.85.. with 90 minutes to go in trading day.

i'd like to see it at 33.50 to start buying...

we don't yet know how tropical storm Dean is looking, but not all things are knowable.

[robertsondavies]

I did buy some NLY this morning around 12.50... and took a flier on some IMH on the open as well.

so I am starting to shed my bearishness on real estate finally...

close to buying JOE.... but no trigger yet.

[robertsondavies]

proud owner of a wee bit of JOE now, so I'm sure it's heading significantly lower....

but I'll take some here at 33.55 and take my chances...

I know not many agree with me about buying it now, but then again, where were all the bears when JOE was at $80. it's ok being lonely...

If Dean hits, I'll be buying in the 20's...

[gardening1970]

I'm with you Robertson. I added to a small JOE position here. I bought in intially around 37 several years ago with the intent to hold long term. Should have sold at 80. But you gotta love their assets.

[Biff]

:floor: Time for another Cup O' JOE at <35...<34...<33?

JOE has sold off all 17 of its office buildings (there goes that revenue down the tubes)--what are they going to sell for "income" next?

kinda reminds me of an old joke:

------------------------
A farmer walks into a bar with a three-legged pig. The bartender asks, "How come that pig's missing a leg?"

"Well," says the farmer, "there was a big fire. My house burned right down to the ground. My family and I all would have burned up with it if this pig hadn't come into the flaming, smoke-filled house and dragged each of us out, one by one."

"Wow," says the bartender, respectfully.

"Yep," says the farmer, "and you just don't eat a pig like that all at once."

-----------------



.

[robertsondavies]

i do love their assets, although I haven't always agreed with their valuation...

it'll probably be $25 soon... but this kind of lets people know where their property values have gone... JOE was up at $85, now at $33 and falling.

2008 is going to be ugly.

[goofer44]

NO pain no gain. OUCH !! own 1000. bidding 32 for 500.

[SHELLY]

NO pain no gain. OUCH !! own 1000. bidding 32 for 500.

Goofer,

Congrats...yours are made of brass!

This one's for you: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKzMd328bMw (Warning: Strong language)

.

[goofer44]

One of my all time favorite movies !!!

[drsvelte]

Goofer...

Hey, good for you. JOE is seriously oversold here and the huge volume may be a near a short-term bottom.

I've got a buy order in at 30 and then at 26.

[robertsondavies]

thanks.... g g ross... defining great dialogue...

isn't that what we have going here? a dialogue?

...at least Goofer and I have a dialogue....

JOE is down what 60% or 70% from its highs.... I say the stock is closer to being a buy than real estate in South Walton, an area that I love. I'll let the stock form a bottom in here now at 1997 levels...... i invite people to short this stock now.... I welcome the "built in" demand.

I used to be the so called built-in demand, on JOE a while back.

I know a trend when i see one.... and JOE is not going lower than 25, and may not go lower than 33 for that matter.... so its time to buy if you like South Walton, but don't own enuf of it - like me. I suspect that many own too much of the physical SoWal at this point, to partiicpate in the liquid proxy, J-O-E.

Yeeee HAWWWW... let's get this thing down a few more dollars so we can get in more substantially.

[SHELLY]

I know a trend when i see one.... and JOE is not going lower than 25, and may not go lower than 33 for that matter.... so its time to buy if you like South Walton, but don't own enuf of it - like me. I suspect that many own too much of the physical SoWal at this point, to partiicpate in the liquid proxy, J-O-E.

Yeeee HAWWWW... let's get this thing down a few more dollars so we can get in more substantially.

RD,

I'm assuming you are going long JOE. That being the case, convince me that buying JOE now--and at this price point--is a good investment. Can you do that without using the words and phrases, "$2,000 an Acre," "Baby Boomers," "Airport," "Disney," "Jungle Jim's Wild Animal Farm," and "Erik Estrada?"


.


.

[robertsondavies]

6072

pure emotion - see attached and see for yourself,

,
ponch

[SON]

The short answer
NO

[Smiling JOe]

Considering that JOE is currently about 60% off of its highs, and real estate sales are off, but not nearly that much, I think JOE is looking pretty attractive.

[SHELLY]

NO pain no gain. OUCH !! own 1000. bidding 32 for 500.

I guess you just picked up another 500 of JOE--what's next?


.

[goofer44]

shelley thanks for monitoring my JOE position. Bidding 30.50 for 1000. i own 1500 now.

[robertsondavies]

i picked up more today around noon hour too...

was kind of nice to see it close up today, but on the other hand I'd like to see it re-test its lows, so i can add more at 30....

cheers,

[drsvelte]

Those that bought yesterday shall be rewarded today:D

[Smiling JOe]

Those that bought yesterday shall be rewarded today:Dcurrently up 14% from yesterday's low. Not bad if you sell it now.

Goofer, looks like the banks are loving the Fed's decision to cut the discount rate.

[goofer44]

SHELLY

Where are you ? You are not keeping me up on my portfolio. Can you tell me the prices of Bank of America, Citicorp, Wachovia , AIG International, Chevron, Exxon, Conoco Phillips, Pepsi, Coke, Altria, Proctor and Gamble, MMM, Caterpillar ??? Where are you when I need you. Are you crying in your tequilla on your cold linoleum floor ???? I am not gloating, even though it may seem that way. I apologize to all if if I offend. My point is sometimes it does pay to buy straw hats in the winter. Buy low, sell high. The stock market is a TOTALLY DIFFERENT beast than the real estate market. It is a game of psychology and KNOWING the underlying factors effecting prices. The last 10 days was all about hedge funds and private equity forced to sell stocks at any price to raise margin. This was a Wall St phenomenon and not a Main St issue. Exactly like 1987. My crystal ball is always cloudy so I can't tell you what will happen next week or next month BUT I have extreme confidence in the future.

[Smiling JOe]

Goofer, I thought you knew. Shelly is standing naked in front of the new airport in PCB, waiting to get his photo taken. He hasn't had time to keep up with your holdings. :funn:

[goofer44]

:lolabove:

[robertsondavies]

Congrats Goofer... this morning, I used the over-exuberance and SHORT COVERING to sell my recently purchased IMH, recently purchased NLY and recently purchased JOE, because I am convinced that this discount window lowering is going to become a liability over the weekend.....if we go negative this afternoon, these three stocks, especially JOE and IMH will reverse and go negative (NLY probably not so much)... but I'll possibly be -re-buying this afternoon.

P.S. I've been with you on the bank idea... been buying BBT (BB&T) over the last 3 weeks, akin to your C and BAC calls...

one play I like today, FirstFed Financial (FED) put options... i think there is a good chance that the Sept. 55 Puts, could spike in price this afternoon, from current 7>70/8.10 level.. just a flier :)

this is fun..

[Mango]

Goofer, I thought you knew. Shelly is standing naked in front of the new airport in PCB, waiting to get his photo taken. He hasn't had time to keep up with your holdings. :funn:

:lolabove: or playing "squash" with Bernanke.

[6thGen]

Down over 2% from yesterday's close now. Still up from yesterday's low.

[goofer44]

I too am taking some money off the table, especially in financials. On days like we have experienced with high volatility, I sell in the money calls to capture some decent premium.

[goofer44]

Congratulations to you too, Robert. No one ever went broke taking a profit. We will have plenty of volatile days ahead. Time to be nimble and trade around positions.

[robertsondavies]

absolutely... this is so fun....

trimming a wee bit of BBT in here... but am comfortable with it for the long run, as well as my position in RJF (RayJay) that I keep adding whenever it gets very close to $30 which it has several times recently...

i sold some october out of the money calls against my positions on CFC

as I alluded to earlier, I put on a new positon in FEDUK (put option on FED).. i think it might work large....

really having a lot of fun...

good to know there is money being made out there, aside from pissing and moaning about real estate .

cheers,

any thoughts this afternoon Goofer??

i really got lucky getting long some financial crap yesterday, and got a total undeserved gift this morning from Bernanke... its actually kinda scary that the FED is so nervous that they had to do that, before index options expiry.... wonder what they see that they're so fearful.

[SHELLY]

SHELLY

Where are you ? You are not keeping me up on my portfolio. Can you tell me the prices of Bank of America, Citicorp, Wachovia , AIG International, Chevron, Exxon, Conoco Phillips, Pepsi, Coke, Altria, Proctor and Gamble, MMM, Caterpillar ??? Where are you when I need you. Are you crying in your tequilla on your cold linoleum floor ???? I am not gloating, even though it may seem that way. I apologize to all if if I offend. My point is sometimes it does pay to buy straw hats in the winter. Buy low, sell high. The stock market is a TOTALLY DIFFERENT beast than the real estate market. It is a game of psychology and KNOWING the underlying factors effecting prices. The last 10 days was all about hedge funds and private equity forced to sell stocks at any price to raise margin. This was a Wall St phenomenon and not a Main St issue. Exactly like 1987. My crystal ball is always cloudy so I can't tell you what will happen next week or next month BUT I have extreme confidence in the future.

Goofer,

A bit surprised by your post....I thought you had a bit more class than this...but I digress.

The market of the past couple of days is a result of Ben throwing more liquid fuel on the fire. I'm not a day-trader, nor a flipper, so I neither live for the euphoric highs nor die by the crushing lows of market volatility.

The toxic loans and the expanding credit bubble are still out there in the economy--nothing that Ben and company can do will make it go away, he's just slapping more lipstick on this pig (which is looking quite attractive to those who have been partying like it's 1999.)

True, there are some very good buys since the hedgies got wedgies and are dumping the good stuff, but I'm not convinced that magically everything is OK and we can crank up the building cranes and throw open the door for more pre-sale condos, building lots and subdivisions (which, by the way, is...or was...Florida's economic engine for the past couple of years).

The US consumers' ability to secure and pay their debts going forward is key.

BTW...Did you sell your NY property yet?


.

.

[goofer44]

SHELLY

First you monitor my JOE position and ask me on the public message board "what is my next" move with dripping sarcasm........then you ask whether I have sold my NY property. :idontno: Why are you obssessed with my financial activities ?? I have a dialogue with others on the message board and all you do is be a wisea**. Get a life and get off that fence you sit on watching the world pass you by. Try participating and pontificating less. You may think you know it all, my dear lady, but you may be missing out especially hiding behind your veil of secrecy. Why not come out ? The water is fine.

[SHELLY]

SHELLY

.......then you ask whether I have sold my NY property. :idontno:

I agree, that was a cheap shot...Apologies.


.

[goofer44]

thank you for that.

[Chickpea]

thank you for that.

You guys better kiss and make up!! I learn alot from both of you and would be saddened to not read your informative posts!!

[nmosley]

I am with Chickpea -
Truth be told, you guys (Goofer, Shelly) and Smiling Joe are my favs! Kurt, your stuff is always beautiful and informative, of course... but these three just fill my mind with excellent "ponder-fodder". I am glad you participate and share yourselves by sharing your thoughts and hope that I get to meet you all one of these days. I think that each of you brings spice and life to this forum and it would not be the same without you. Shelly's apology and Goofer's acknowlegment show you both to be class-acts and that is a wonderful thing in this day and age!!! May you all have a peaceful day and a week of abundant living. :D

[goofer44]

Of course I accepted Shelly's apology. I apologize to her if I was a bit of a wiseguy myself. Sometimes we all get carried away because of our passions.
i look forward to more spirited debates on this message board. It is a wonderful way to learn and expand. I value Shelly's input greatly. In the final analysis, if we all thought alike, it would be a very boring world

[SHELLY]

You guys better kiss and make up!! I learn alot from both of you and would be saddened to not read your informative posts!!

Pish-posh...I would never have a battle of wits with an unarmed man--which is why I enjoy verbal volleys with Goofer and the like.

I don't hold grudges...as a matter of fact, I've reserved him a seat in my bomb shelter and a tinfoil hat (the straw hat won't help) when Economic Armageddon strikes Florida.

.

[Chickpea]

Pish-posh...I would never have a battle of wits with an unarmed man--which is why I enjoy verbal volleys with Goofer and the like.

I don't hold grudges...as a matter of fact, I've reserved him a seat in my bomb shelter and a tinfoil hat (the straw hat won't help) when Economic Armageddon strikes Florida.

.

I hope you are a woman!! I know quite a few men with as sharp a wit as you but less women - and your little reference to a battle of wits with an unarmed man leads me to believe that perhaps you are a gull!!

Anyways - keep at it - I enjoy your posts tremendously (even when I do not agree!)

[Seagrove Lover]

Shelly , got caught with that one too on my last post. Well Shelly are you a man or women? I mean no harm. Just don't want to address you improperly.

I disagree with you most of the time but enjoy your comment and total respect your right to your opinion. Wether man or woman? Yes I am a man, if I'm not lying. :biggrin:

[robertsondavies]

Back in today for a handful of shares, and...... in the red already !!! totally got lucky with that last trade due to fed bail out.. this JOE looks like it wants to go lower materially...

[SHELLY]

Back in today for a handful of shares, and...... in the red already !!! totally got lucky with that last trade due to fed bail out.. this JOE looks like it wants to go lower materially...

Pete Rummel got lucky too...unloaded 36,900+ @ $34.25 on Aug 21. Probably needed some pocket change to get the kids school supplies and milk money.

http://joe.client.shareholder.com/EdgarDetail.cfm?CIK=745308&FID=1209191-07-49568&SID=07-00

.

[SHELLY]

:eek: Waoh! 2.1M volume today -- nice payday for the shorts?


.

[stormsurge]

I am reminded of a certain CEO named Lorenzo that took over Eastern Airlines and sold all the easily liquidated assets, i.e. aircraft, made a fortune, then drove the company into the scrap heap of formerly great American companies.
If you chart the past six month's stock price of JOE it is hard to contemplate that anyone, much less the vaulted leader of the company, would want to see any shares being sold that would register as insider trading.
I believe JOE is still a great company. Unfortunately, it is being led by a bunch of idiots who are only out to line their own pockets. If you own stock in this company you really need to speak up in regards to a change of guard in management.
My .02 cents worth and a blanket will get you a good day at the beach:cool:

[Bob]

do any of you overly-caffeinated day traders ever think long term????

[Smiling JOe]

do any of you overly-caffeinated day traders ever think long term????
:funn:

[NoHall]

:funn:

Every time I see this thread I wonder if you are worth buying? Do you have an asking price?;-)

[Smiling JOe]

Every time I see this thread I wonder if you are worth buying? Do you have an asking price?;-)I think I might go for about two bits these days. Some project that I don't know what the hell is going on, and that my price may drop to one bit very shortly, and others project that if I stay in good health, my price might go up to three bits with time. I must note that if you are paying two bits, don't expect me to do any cleaning or heavy lifting.

[NoHall]

I think I might go for about two bits these days. Some project that I don't know what the hell is going on, and that my price may drop to one bit very shortly, and others project that if I stay in good health, my price might go up to three bits with time. I must note that if you are paying two bits, don't expect me to do any cleaning or heavy lifting.

Heck, I have the cleaning and heavy lifting under control, and don't want to know what the hell is going on. (Ignorance is bliss.) I just like to be entertained, which is worth a lot more than labor or information.

Fifty cents?

[SHELLY]

do any of you overly-caffeinated day traders ever think long term????


JOE long term??....Nah, I don't have that much time left on this planet.


.

[robertsondavies]

For those with not much time left on the planet, you could have made a quick 10 % on your money this past two weeks with JOE stock. annualized, that works out to...

;)

[SHELLY]

For those with not much time left on the planet, you could have made a quick 10 % on your money this past two weeks with JOE stock. annualized, that works out to...

;)


:roll:

Made more money owning the stock of a company (and taking some profits off the table) that makes plastic shoes--go figure. :idontno:


.

[goofer44]

SHELLY

Why don't you share your ideas with us? We have been confident enough to tell the board what we do so all can see and respond accordingly. Do you lack confidence or conviction? Be brave and share. :idontno:

[SHELLY]

SHELLY

Why don't you share your ideas with us? We have been confident enough to tell the board what we do so all can see and respond accordingly. Do you lack confidence or conviction? Be brave and share. :idontno:

I don't think it is prudent to do so...there may actually be some fools out there who would use real money (they can't afford to risk) and trade on information they read on the message board.

By my own admission I am a risk-averse investor--and I'm comfortable with my wins and losses. A loss that may be no problem for me, may result in crushing someone I don't even know....I choose not to have my fingerprints on those type of train wrecks.

I'm quite content with things as they are. As long as you traders in stocks and real estate keep offering up your ideas as the "deal of the century"....I'll keep asking questions to see if you can justify your decisions, and the studio audience, playing the home game, can judge for themselves.

My recommendation to those who are "comfortable" with their net worth at this point should consider investing in "experiences" and NOT acquiring more "things." I've not yet seen a Brinks truck in a funeral procession. :cool:

I will tell you this....I don't own any condo preconstruction contracts and I don't hold JOE in my portfolio.



.

[goofer44]

:lolabove:

Be careful, your arrogance is showing. Why do you continually have to be so condescending ??? Do you really think that people are fools on this message board and that they would rush out and buy any investment ideas you would share with us or would buy my ideas, for that matter ?? It is about dialogue, Shelly and not pontificating !!
BTW, one can be very comfortable with their net worth and still have "experiences". They are not mutually exclusive.

[goofer44]

:roll:

Made more money owning the stock of a company (and taking some profits off the table) that makes plastic shoes--go figure. :idontno:


.

So much for a "risk averse" investor. Very inconsistent with your self description

[elgordoboy]

I don't think it is prudent to do so...there may actually be some fools out there who would use real money (they can't afford to risk) and trade on information they read on the message board.

By my own admission I am a risk-averse investor--and I'm comfortable with my wins and losses. A loss that may be no problem for me, may result in crushing someone I don't even know....I choose not to have my fingerprints on those type of train wrecks.

I'm quite content with things as they are. As long as you traders in stocks and real estate keep offering up your ideas as the "deal of the century"....I'll keep asking questions to see if you can justify your decisions, and the studio audience, playing the home game, can judge for themselves.

My recommendation to those who are "comfortable" with their net worth at this point should consider investing in "experiences" and NOT acquiring more "things." I've not yet seen a Brinks truck in a funeral procession. :cool:

I will tell you this....I don't own any condo preconstruction contracts and I don't hold JOE in my portfolio.



.
Nice to see someone operate with thoughtful consideration.

[elgordoboy]

:lolabove:

Be careful, your arrogance is showing. Why do you continually have to be so condescending ??? Do you really think that people are fools on this message board and that they would rush out and buy any investment ideas you would share with us or would buy my ideas, for that matter ?? It is about dialogue, Shelly and not pontificating !!
BTW, one can be very comfortable with their net worth and still have "experiences". They are not mutually exclusive.
Not my fight but...with nearly 5500 members and who knows how many lurkers...I guarantee there are at least a few fools on this message board and when it comes to following stock tips I am not discounting myself.

[SHELLY]

So much for a "risk averse" investor. Very inconsistent with your self description

At the time CROX flew well below my "risk radar." When you saw whole beachtowns full of folks walking around in day-glo orange plastic shoes it wasn't difficult to spot that opportunity--it just turned out better than I expected (call it dumb luck if you will).

.

[Smiling JOe]

At the time CROX flew well below my "risk radar." When you saw whole beachtowns full of folks walking around in day-glo orange plastic shoes it wasn't difficult to spot that opportunity--it just turned out better than I expected (call it dumb luck if you will).

.I'll call it something else instead, "Trendy." :cool: I don't follow CROX, but I suspect that the trend will fade faster than the low carb craze at all of the fast food burger joints.

[SHELLY]

I'll call it something else instead, "Trendy." :cool: I don't follow CROX, but I suspect that the trend will fade faster than the low carb craze at all of the fast food burger joints.

I agree that most of the run-up has already happened, but I still think there is room for growth in Crocs going forward, and I pity the fool who hasn't taken some profits off the table and are flying without a net (not placing trailing stops).

All that considered, Crocs are "trendy" (although not my cup-o-tea) but they have gone beyond the plastic, orange, slingback clogs into more "stylish" (and some not-so-stylish) flip-flops, boots, and lace-up shoes for cold climates. Additionally, they have licensing agreements with collegiate sports, NFL, NHL, MLB, NASCAR, PGA and Disney and they have branched out into industry-specific workplace footwear targeting medical personnel and food service workers--each shoe geared to the workplace environment in the form of comfort and safety (i.e., ventilation, arch support and slip-proof tread).

Moreover, in October (just in time for Christmas :roll: ) they are rolling out a men's and children's clothing line (they say some of the colors will match the shoes--so I imagine some of them will be day-glo orange and--instead of feet--will make one's butt look humongous!).

This stock has been heavily shorted for some time, so there are a lot of bets that this company is going to fold like a cheap Dollar General card table; but I've got my original investment back and am riding on their money now, so no worries.

.

[Mango]

Moreover, in October (just in time for Christmas :roll: ) they are rolling out a men's and children's clothing line (they say some of the colors will match the shoes--so I imagine some of them will be day-glo orange and--instead of feet--will make one's butt look humongous!).

:eek:
I suppose Seacrestkristi was on to something when she asked about keeping the orange vests on beach clean up day. :lol:

[Smiling JOe]

Didn't the Crocs recently get pulled from Hospital employees due to the fact that the shoes caused a build up of static electricity which was presenting problems for shocking patients and perhaps stirring up more trouble in the operating rooms? Maybe that was just a rumor. No matter, in five years, people shopping for shoes will think about Crocs as much as they think about Jellies. I agree that you buying a stock of a trendy shoe company sounds opposite of what you describe as your "risk-averse" investment strategy. Did you get the tip off of a message board?

[SHELLY]

:eek:
I suppose Seacrestkristi was on to something when she asked about keeping the orange vests on beach clean up day. :lol:

She didn't realize that she was "fashion forward."

Would you like some Crocs to go with that orange vest Ma'am?

.
http://www.hillquest.com/cleanteam/images/orange-day.jpg

[SHELLY]

I agree that you buying a stock of a trendy shoe company sounds opposite of what you describe as your "risk-averse" investment strategy. Did you get the tip off of a message board?

If I took tips from message boards I'd have gone broke long ago buying up dot-coms and dot-condos. :cool:

I prefer to do my gambling where they serve free drinks--having said that, in 2005 I took a position in Precious Metals and Mining :shock: ....I attribute it to maybe getting a bad oyster.

(BTW: I am a little overweight in cash right now....the next couple of weeks can be real tricky)

.

[Mango]

She didn't realize that she was "fashion forward."

Would you like some Crocs to go with that orange vest Ma'am?

.
http://www.hillquest.com/cleanteam/images/orange-day.jpg

:funn: :clap:

[SHELLY]

Didn't the Crocs recently get pulled from Hospital employees due to the fact that the shoes caused a build up of static electricity which was presenting problems for shocking patients and perhaps stirring up more trouble in the operating rooms?

Yeah, Killer Crocs have been banned in Swedish Hospitals and in some hospitals in the UK...the static electricity is allegedly being blamed for shorting out life support machines. :idontno:

....And here's a reason we should ban Crocs in the USA!!:.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.
http://www.random-good-stuff.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/bushcrocs.jpg

[Mango]

:lolabove: I want what Shelly having late nights.
Care to share? :lol:

[Smiling JOe]

.
http://www.hillquest.com/cleanteam/images/orange-day.jpgThis picture says it all. When the people in the photo look back at the pic in two years, they will realize how much they look like prisoners on work leave, and that trend of Crocs will come to a screeching halt.

[Smiling JOe]

.
http://www.random-good-stuff.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/bushcrocs.jpg

:floor: You got that right. Check out those black bicycle racing Presidential logo socks. :floor: Not many buyers for those.I bet those damn socks cost us taxpayers about $200.

Oh my, I just noticed the hat with his dog on the front. I am the last one that anyone should take fashion notes from, but GW is the Pres. What's up with that?

[Rita]

She didn't realize that she was "fashion forward."

Would you like some Crocs to go with that orange vest Ma'am?

.
http://www.hillquest.com/cleanteam/images/orange-day.jpg

............

....And here's a reason we should ban Crocs in the USA!!:.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.
http://www.random-good-stuff.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/bushcrocs.jpg

OMG These photos are too funny! :floor:

.

[goofer44]

SHELLY
.
.
.So funny...:clap: :floor: Where do you find all the great pictures that you post. I have always meant to tell you that the pictures you link with your comments are always fantastic. You even found that funny picture of the guy in the aluminum 3 pointed hat when you once commented something to me. :floor:

.
.
.
.

.
.
.

.
.
.
http://www.random-good-stuff.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/bushcrocs.jpg[/QUOTE]

[SHELLY]

This picture says it all. When the people in the photo look back at the pic in two years, they will realize how much they look like prisoners on work leave, and that trend of Crocs will come to a screeching halt.

The story behind that photo was that a Crocs store owner donated the shoes to a group of folks who volunteered to clean up their town.


.

[SHELLY]

You even found that funny picture of the guy in the aluminum 3 pointed hat when you once commented something to me. :floor:


Goofer,

You can still order one with overnight shipping in time for the Fed announcement next week!


.

PROTECT YOURSELF!


http://www.doorcountycompass.com/events/images/tin-foil-hats-02.jpg
.
.
.
.
.
.
PROTECT YOUR BROTHER-IN-LAW!
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
http://www.raptureready.com/photo/tulsa2/z56.jpg
.
.
.

.
.
.
PROTECT YOUR ROOFER
.
.
.
.
.
http://calvarychapel.com/auburn/images/School/Gallery/spirit%2520week%2520garbage%2520bag-tin%2520foil%2520day.jpg.
.
.
.

.
.
PROTECT YOUR PETS!
.
.
.
.

.
http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/7720/tinfoilhat2cy2.jpg

http://www.ecrater.com/6442/448baac351738_6442n.jpg
.
.
.
.
PROTECT YOUR WIFE!
.
.
.
.
http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a4/JR_Sandy/foil04.jpg
,
,
,

,

Goofer,

Next week should be VERY interesting indeed! Hang on to your wigs and keys!


Shel.

/





.
.
.
.
.
.
.

.
.

..

[scooterbug44]

People do love their Crocs, I just can't get past the idea of wearing plastic shoes in hot weather!

W in crocs w/ black socks, shorts, and a scottie dog hat.........there just aren't words!

Ditto for the foil thong!

[goofer44]

SHELLY

:floor: LOVE the pics.

Just flew into Sowal today from Az. Its good to be back

[SHELLY]

SHELLY

:floor: LOVE the pics.

Just flew into Sowal today from Az. Its good to be back

Welcome back....are you here for the duration?


.

[Smiling JOe]

Looks like St Joe is getting their wish for the new road going from the new PCB airport to WaterSound and 30A. It made the 10-20 priority list for the NWFTCA (http://www.NWFTCA.com).

[scooterbug44]

Looks like St Joe is getting their wish for the new road going from the new PCB airport to WaterSound and 30A. It made the 10-20 priority list for the NWFTCA (http://www.NWFTCA.com).

Is it really going to be a toll road? Can see that cheesing quite a few folks off!

[Smiling JOe]

Is it really going to be a toll road? Can see that cheesing quite a few folks off!They can always take the long way and burn more gas. I bet the long way would be an additional 15 miles through traffic. With the average Tahoe or Sequoia getting about 16-18 miles per gallon, at a cost of lets say $3 per gallon (likely much more in the future when they build the road), the costs will offset, and the short way will be much faster without as much traffic.

[SHELLY]

Is it really going to be a toll road? Can see that cheesing quite a few folks off!

Funding for anything is going to be a struggle going forward--Florida doesn't have enough money to keep the lights on next year. There's been lots of chatter of allowing private companies to build toll roads in the USA--here's an article:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-tollsideapr04,0,6724216.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines


.

[goofer44]

[QUOTE=SHELLY;292089]Welcome back....are you here for the duration?

here for 2 months and then ny for the thanksgiving / xmas holiday. my wsb house should be finished mid november. i then plan to live there 6months, az 4 months and bum around the other 2 months.

[scooterbug44]

Funding for anything is going to be a struggle going forward--Florida doesn't have enough money to keep the lights on next year. There's been lots of chatter of allowing private companies to build toll roads in the USA--here's an article:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-tollsideapr04,0,6724216.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines


.

The Chicago Skyway and Indiana Toll system are very user friendly and well-run.....................I doubt those companies would be the ones running a toll road down here though!

I have a couple theories as to how we could be saving $$ to make budgets work without resorting to toll roads.......such as having companies that build developments with hundreds or thousands or homes in an undeveloped area subsidize the roads needed to get to them!

[goofer44]

The FED does not want foreclosures on a massive scale and a recession brought on by housing.
DO NOT FIGHT THE FED.

[robertsondavies]

Shelly, we are definitely on different wavelengths. I bot some CROCs for myself this summer, but shorted the stock several days ago, when they announced they were "getting into something else" ... womens clothes or some such thing... JOE is going up. as for CROX, look out below.

oh well, CROX was up today, albeit just 32 cents. Now, today being the biggest up day in the markets in the last 4 YEARS, that doesn't seem to be much of a move up.

hmmmmm.... was JOE up today? anyone,
Bueler?


SOLD TO YOU on the CROX - probably an odd lot I'm sure

[scooterbug44]

The FED does not want foreclosures on a massive scale and a recession brought on by housing.
DO NOT FIGHT THE FED.

Those aren't the things I ask Santa for either .................. I don't have a beef with the Fed, but with the rampant fiscal irresponsibility that seems to be standard operating procedure for our banks and governments.

If I can't spend more $ than I have without consequences, why can they?

[SHELLY]

Shelly, we are definitely on different wavelengths. I bot some CROCs for myself this summer, but shorted the stock several days ago, when they announced they were "getting into something else" ... womens clothes or some such thing... JOE is going up. as for CROX, look out below.

oh well, CROX was up today, albeit just 32 cents. Now, today being the biggest up day in the markets in the last 4 YEARS, that doesn't seem to be much of a move up.

hmmmmm.... was JOE up today? anyone,
Bueler?


SOLD TO YOU on the CROX - probably an odd lot I'm sure

June 15, 2007 CROX did a 2:1 stock split...pre-split price was $90. Today's close on those shares was $57 and change.

JOE's share price on June 15 was $47.32. Today's close was??? ANYONE? ANYONE? Bueler?

.

[Smiling JOe]

For those with not much time left on the planet, you could have made a quick 10 % on your money this past two weeks with JOE stock. annualized, that works out to...

;)


Which Shelly quoted and replied:

Made more money owning the stock of a company (and taking some profits off the table) that makes plastic shoes--go figure.


.

June 15, 2007 CROX did a 2:1 stock split...pre-split price was $90. Today's close on those shares was $57 and change.

JOE's share price on June 15 was $47.32. Today's close was??? ANYONE? ANYONE? Bueler?

.
I thought your talk of purchasing and selling CROX was within the same time during the two week period when someone mentioned JOE going up 10%. You said you did better in CROX. :idontno: It is easy to find particular periods when any given stock outperforms another. How did you select June15? If that is the date you bought CROX, it is very opposite of the long term, low risk investments which you state you buy into. Help us understand.

[Miss Kitty]

:wave: ...hello to all my new BFF's that made lots of $$$ today!!! :clap: I think in light of my prowess in picking football teams that I will have Mr. K set me up as a day trader...thoughts? :idontno:

[elgordoboy]

Shelly, we are definitely on different wavelengths. I bot some CROCs for myself this summer, but shorted the stock several days ago, when they announced they were "getting into something else" ... womens clothes or some such thing... JOE is going up. as for CROX, look out below.

oh well, CROX was up today, albeit just 32 cents. Now, today being the biggest up day in the markets in the last 4 YEARS, that doesn't seem to be much of a move up.

hmmmmm.... was JOE up today? anyone,
Bueler?


SOLD TO YOU on the CROX - probably an odd lot I'm sure
Glad I didn't buy Joe right before the close I'd be down 2.5% in AH, annualized.... that's....broke :eek: . Maybe tomorrow it'll go up and I'll wish I was in it, then it'll go down the next day and I'll be glad I wasn't in. On and on ad nauseum. Why not brag on where Joe is on a 5 minute chart rather than waiting a whole day? :idontno:

[goofer44]

Those aren't the things I ask Santa for either .................. I don't have a beef with the Fed, but with the rampant fiscal irresponsibility that seems to be standard operating procedure for our banks and governments.

If I can't spend more $ than I have without consequences, why can they?

Scooterbug

I agree with you completely....but unfortunately the real world doesn't work that way. The name of the game is to MAKE THE SYSTEM WORK FOR YOU. In capitalism and in a democratic society, elected politicians and markets all want the same thing.......profits, good times and the easy choices to make the most people ( voters and shareholders ) happy. Someday the music will really stop but I think it will be due to an exogenous event, not an economic event. Iran lobbing nukes at Israel will be the end of civilization as we have known it. The real problem facing the world is nuclear proliferation to the crazies.

[goofer44]

:wave: ...hello to all my new BFF's that made lots of $$$ today!!! :clap: I think in light of my prowess in picking football teams that I will have Mr. K set me up as a day trader...thoughts? :idontno:

I think you are being facetious. (sp)? But in the event you are serious, PLEASE RECONSIDER. Successful investing takes many years to learn AND the only way to really learn is to lose money which I think you would not be prepared for. I never day trade but I try to pick my spots, have a good fundamental knowledge of the companies I am interested in, have a macro opinion of the business cycle and the world in general, and then be a contrarian. It is always darkest before the dawn. Especially if you wear a straw hat with a long brim !! ;-)

[Smiling JOe]

:wave: ...hello to all my new BFF's that made lots of $$$ today!!! :clap: I think in light of my prowess in picking football teams that I will have Mr. K set me up as a day trader...thoughts? :idontno:
Alright, Kitty, this was a serious thread. :funn: Instead of having Mr K setting you up as a day trader, I think you should have him set you up with a bottomless bar tab at the pool bar in WC.

Edit- I forgot to add :wave: ;-)

[Miss Kitty]

I think you are being facetious. (sp)? But in the event you are serious, PLEASE RECONSIDER. Successful investing takes many years to learn AND the only way to really learn is to lose money which I think you would not be prepared for. I never day trade but I try to pick my spots, have a good fundamental knowledge of the companies I am interested in, have a macro opinion of the business cycle and the world in general, and then be a contrarian. It is always darkest before the dawn. Especially if you wear a straw hat with a long brim !! ;-)

More like being a smart a$$. ;-) I got a little cocky with my football picks. Don't worry...Mr. K knows better. :wave: I do like reading and learning some things from y'all.

[SHELLY]

Which Shelly quoted and replied:


I thought your talk of purchasing and selling CROX was within the same time during the two week period when someone mentioned JOE going up 10%. You said you did better in CROX. :idontno: It is easy to find particular periods when any given stock outperforms another. How did you select June15? If that is the date you bought CROX, it is very opposite of the long term, low risk investments which you state you buy into. Help us understand.

My bad...it appeared to me we were playing a game where we can pull the dates out of our arses :idontno:

I've owned CROX for well over a year--the reference to Jun 15 was when the stock split 2-to-1. Before the split it traded just over $90 (after @$45 and change)...now those shares are trading @ $57. Already took some LT capital gains profits off the top after the split....if more tots lose their toenails in escalators, or nurses flat-line more patients, I expect I'll get stopped out (with profit to spare)--till then, it's all good. I'm not into counting my chicks before they hatch--nor profits before they're realized and taxed. :cool:



.

[goofer44]

I own 2500 joe at a cost of 33.80. the party has just started since the markets will expect and demand further rate reductions. the perception will be that the housing industry and the general economy will be saved from recession. i believe homebuilders and housing related stocks will all move up at least 25% between now and the end of the year. I intend to remain long JOE well into the 4th qtr.
__________________

[elgordoboy]

Go short escalator companies...

http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/nt/ma/ma_nws_1.gif (http://news.yahoo.com/;_ylt=AgLsSh8_4f_iEPECI8Xws65H2ocA)
if(window.yzq_d==null)window.yzq_d=new Object();window.yzq_d['hX_lS9GDJHs-']='&U=128uq7a4g%2fN%3dhX_lS9GDJHs-%2fC%3d-1%2fD%3dLOGO%2fB%3d-1';
Back to Story (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070917/ap_on_re_us/crocs_escalator_dangers;_ylt=Auu8JGkOVbRf1FZg6R0t9 ttH2ocA) - Help (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=AnKi5xiJg4YW5DJkYCOrzZ5H2ocA/SIG=10rbjkhqd/**http%3A//help.yahoo.com/)

http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/nws/p/ap_small.gif
Got Crocs? Be careful on the escalator

By SARAH KARUSH, Associated Press WriterMon Sep 17, 7:47 PM ET


At rail stations and shopping malls around the world, reports are popping up of people, particularly young children, getting their toes caught in escalators. The one common theme seems to be the clunky soft-soled clogs known by the name of the most popular brand, Crocs.
One of the nation's largest subway systems — the Washington Metro — has even posted ads warning riders about wearing such shoes on its moving stairways. The ads feature a photo of a crocodile, though they don't mention Crocs by name.
Four-year-old Rory McDermott got a Croc-clad foot caught in an escalator last month at a mall in northern Virginia. His mother managed to yank him free, but the nail on his big toe was almost completely ripped off, causing heavy bleeding.
At first, Rory's mother had no idea what caused the boy's foot to get caught. It was only later, when someone at the hospital remarked on Rory's shoes, that she began to suspect the Crocs and did an Internet search.
"I came home and typed in 'Croc' and 'escalator,' and all these stories came up," said Jodi McDermott, of Vienna, Va. "If I had known, those would never have been worn."
According to reports appearing across the United States and as far away as Singapore and Japan, entrapments occur because of two of the biggest selling points of shoes like Crocs: their flexibility and grip. Some report the shoes get caught in the "teeth" at the bottom or top of the escalator, or in the crack between the steps and the side of the escalator.
The reports of serious injuries have all involved young children. Crocs are commonly worn by children as young as 2. The company introduced shoes in its smallest size, 4/5, this past spring.
Niwot, Colo.-based Crocs Inc. said it does not keep records of the reasons for customer-service calls. But the company said it is aware of "very few" problems relating to accidents involving the shoes, which are made of a soft, synthetic resin.
"Thankfully, escalator accidents like the one in Virginia are rare," the company said in a statement.
In Japan, the government warned consumers last week that it has received 39 reports of sandals — mostly Crocs or similar products — getting stuck in escalators from late August through early September. Most of the reports appear to have involved small children, some as young as two years old.
Kazuo Motoya of Japan's National Institute of Technology and Evaluation said children may have more escalator accidents in part because they "bounce around when they stand on escalators, instead of watching where they place their feet."
In Singapore, a 2-year-old girl wearing rubber clogs — it's unclear what brand — had her big toe completely ripped off in an escalator accident last year, according to local media reports.
And at the Atlanta airport, a 3-year-old boy wearing Crocs suffered a deep gash across the top of his toes in June. That was one of seven shoe entrapments at the airport since May 1, and all but two of them involved Crocs, said Roy Springer, operations manager for the company that runs the airport terminal.
One U.S. retailer that caters to children, Mattel subsidiary American Girl, has posted signs in three locations directing customers wearing Crocs or flip-flop sandals to use elevators instead of escalators.
During the past two years, so-called "shoe entrapments" in the Washington subway have gone from being relatively rare to happening four or five times a week in the summer, though none has caused serious injuries, said Dave Lacosse, who oversees the subway's 588 escalators, the most of any U.S. transit system.
The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission said escalator accidents caused more than 10,000 injuries last year, but the agency has few records of specific shoe problems. Only two shoe entrapments have been reported by consumers since the beginning of 2006. One reported in May involved "rubber footwear."
Agency spokesman Ed Kang urged people who have had problems to report them on the commission's Web site.

Crocs officials said they were working with the Elevator Escalator Safety Foundation on public education initiatives. But the group's executive director, Barbara Allen, said that's not true.
Allen said a Crocs official called her in September 2006 about possible cooperation, even suggesting the company might put a tag in its shoes with the foundation's Web address. But since that first contact, Crocs has not called, and nobody from the company will return Allen's calls, she said.
Washington Metro's Lacosse and other escalator experts say the best way to prevent shoe entrapments is to face the direction the stairs are moving, keep feet away from the sides and step over the teeth at the end.
Lacosse, of the Washington subway system, said he is personally skittish of Crocs and other soft-soled shoes.
"Would I wear them? No," he said. "And I tell my children not to wear them either." ___

[scooterbug44]

Are the shoes really that dangerous or are the wearers just that stupid?

Maybe people should actually be monitoring their kids on escalators?

Are wheelie shoes and crocs on escalators the latest form of natural selection?

[SHELLY]

Are the shoes really that dangerous or are the wearers just that stupid?


....Or maybe the parents that dress the kids are stupid

http://www.minti.com/image/3937/crocs.jpg/



.

[elgordoboy]

lol

[drsvelte]

The CROCs story is old news.

[elgordoboy]

What isn't really?

[jdarg]

Shoe tangent. Kate wears Holeys now- a much better fit than Crocs and a Keen kind of design. Shoelaces can be added for fun and/or practice.

Eastern Lake Nursery is the only local place to carry them that I know.

[NoHall]

Are the shoes really that dangerous or are the wearers just that stupid?

Maybe people should actually be monitoring their kids on escalators?

Are wheelie shoes and crocs on escalators the latest form of natural selection?

How are they more dangerous than flip flops or loose shoelaces?

I still don't understand the escalator thing. I remember being very, very small and riding escalators. It was the same deal as car doors--keep fingers and toes out of the cracks. I'm not at all scared of them, but I watch my fingers and toes and shoe parts when I'm on them.

As for crocs, my massage therapist recommends them. I have Morton's toe (where the "index" toe is longer than my big toe,) and he says that it makes me roll off differently, which aggravates my sciatic nerve. Because the shape of the toe box on the crocs compensates for it, I don't have sciatic pain when I wear them. :idontno: Great for gardening and wandering across the yard to my parents' house, too!

[elgordoboy]

Lmao at crox today, short squeeze or news inc?

[Pirate]

I own 2500 joe at a cost of 33.80. the party has just started since the markets will expect and demand further rate reductions. the perception will be that the housing industry and the general economy will be saved from recession. i believe homebuilders and housing related stocks will all move up at least 25% between now and the end of the year. I intend to remain long JOE well into the 4th qtr.
__________________

I am often stunned by your picks and the fact that they come through. I think you may be very adept at day trading but the short term buy high sell higher phenomenon is over on this stock. If you hold it for 10 years its a fine stock.

[goofer44]

I am often stunned by your picks and the fact that they come through. I think you may be very adept at day trading but the short term buy high sell higher phenomenon is over on this stock. If you hold it for 10 years its a fine stock.

I am not sure if that is a compliment, :idontno: but thank you anyway. I am NOT a day trader....never have been. Once in awhile I will take a shot and buy a stock I think has been oversold....that is my take on JOE. I think by year end it could be through 40....but who knows. An example of what I do is.... today I bought 500 WAG ( Walgreen). WAG is a very good company and I think the selling was exaggerated. 500s is not enough to matter but a small position gets and keeps my attention. I will add if the stock continues to go lower. JOE is the least quality of all the stocks in my portfolio. I have listed my other stocks in previous posts. They are all the biggest and best of the blue chips. Most raise their dividends every year by 10%. I intend to have them in my portfolio for life. I had a career on Wall St. for over 30 years. There is a method to my madness. In any event it has worked very well for me.

p.s. I am not sure how you arrived at the buy high sell higher statement since I scaled down on JOE from 40 to 30.50. The stock is near:idontno: a multi year low.

[Pirate]

I am not sure if that is a compliment, :idontno: but thank you anyway. I am NOT a day trader....never have been. Once in awhile I will take a shot and buy a stock I think has been oversold....that is my take on JOE. I think by year end it could be through 40....but who knows. An example of what I do is.... today I bought 500 WAG ( Walgreen). WAG is a very good company and I think the selling was exaggerated. 500s is not enough to matter but a small position gets and keeps my attention. I will add if the stock continues to go lower. JOE is the least quality of all the stocks in my portfolio. I have listed my other stocks in previous posts. They are all the biggest and best of the blue chips. Most raise their dividends every year by 10%. I intend to have them in my portfolio for life. I had a career on Wall St. for over 30 years. There is a method to my madness. In any event it has worked very well for me.

p.s. I am not sure how you arrived at the buy high sell higher statement since I scaled down on JOE from 40 to 30.50. The stock is near:idontno: a multi year low.

I was complimenting you on previous gains when I doubted the choice. I have always thought to myself "that guy knows the stock market". My opinion is JOE has been a bad play since the middle of 2005. I am sure people made money trading it, but it was and is very poor fundamentally IMO. It continued to rise after the retirement/second home feeding frenzy and that is why I say buy high sell higher. Not necessarily your mantra but the only explanation of the increases in a hurting real estate market for a company with a bunch of swamp land, a little prime beachfront and a real P/E of 80 then. I think you trade more stocks than the average investor but seem to know a great deal about the industry. Many things that happen in the stock market astound me and that's why I don't move around in stocks much. I'm a buy and hold type of guy and I don't have the time to devote to really trade. I do have a little money in the portfolio that I really take chances on. I call it "the slush fund". JOE might be that for you, I don't know but it isn't a low risk play. Real estate is what I do know and JOE doesn't look so hot to me at the present time. Hopefully I am wrong and you make money again. I realize you have a good buy in position in relative terms and the bottom can't be far if it hasn't been reached already, but think of the people that bought only 5 months ago at 60. Or even when this thread started?:yikes:

[goofer44]

yeah...I hear you. It is always very helpful to get the opinion of someone who is involved day to day in real estate. I appreciate your take on things. I think it will be a long time ( 2 or 3 years ) for the real estate market to be in equilibrium. Sellers have to capitulate to clear the inventory. The more I think about it the more I think I ultimately will lose on JOE. But my game plan is to ride it until year end and if I am losing money...sell it for a tax loss. If I am making money , I will re-evaluate in early 2008. Thanks again, Pirate.

[drsvelte]

St. Joe Company to accelerate value creation (34.15 )

Co announces it intends to significantly accelerate its value creation process in Northwest Florida and is restructuring the co to accomplish that objective. The restructured JOE is designed to increase its financial flexibility and strengthen its balance sheet. To improve its financial performance the co intends to: Significantly reduce capital expenditures, meaningfully decrease selling, general and administrative expenses, divest non-core assets, aggressively lower debt and eliminate the current dividend and over time return value to shareholders through the share repurchase program. In connection with this restructuring, JOE expects to take a charge to earnings of approx $7 mln consisting of severance benefits to employees. This charge will be expensed substantially in 2007 and 2008. JOE's restructuring is expected to generate annual savings of approximately $10 mln in 2008, approx $18 mln in 2009 and approx $20 mln in later years. In addition, JOE expects to take charges aggregating approx $25 to $30 mln in Q307 related to contract termination costs, the write-off of capitalized costs at certain projects, the impairment of completed spec homes in several communities and the write-off of goodwill related to Sunshine State Cypress Mill.

[Capricious]

On Bloomberg:


Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- St. Joe Co., Florida's largest private landowner, plans to eliminate 760 jobs, sell about 100,000 acres of land and scrap its dividend to contend with the worst housing slump in 16 years.

The company will also sell the Sunshine State Cypress Mill, 190 homes and about 1,200 developed home sites, Jacksonville-based St. Joe said today in a statement. It will take a charge of up to $30 million in the third quarter and have $7 million in severance costs this year and next.

St. Joe is shifting from building homes in Florida, where sales plummeted 41 percent in the second quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors, to helping create towns. The company's profit has dropped four of the last six quarters and sales haven't risen since the third quarter of 2005
........

[Capricious]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azK8QFx7PSQo&refer=home

[Smiling JOe]

I don't see any mention of JOE selling off the WaterColor Inn, :idontno: but I'd guess that would account for about 50 of those employees they are ditching, if the deal goes through.

[sowalgayboi]

I don't see any mention of JOE selling off the WaterColor Inn, :idontno: but I'd guess that would account for about 50 of those employees they are ditching, if the deal goes through.

Apparently thru the grape vine the Inn has dropped from a 5 star to 2 star. In addition it is rumored that there is Black mold in the entire building and that they were supposed to shut it down last year to fix the problem. The other rumor is that they are shutting it down to make the repairs and then sell it off as a time share. Again rumors not press statements.

[scooterbug44]

I was told a year or so ago that the Black mold rumor was started by a competitor and had no basis in fact. :idontno:

[goofer44]

http://www.joe.com/NR/rdonlyres/3983AD62-809F-4F2E-8995-7E3589666B54/5984/ChairmansLetter.pdf

[SHELLY]

.
:roll:

ST JOE...Downsizing Our Way to Profitability



.:wave: I'm Home!


.

[goofer44]

The latest and greatest restructuring is having the desired effect...JOE stock up $1.45 today to 35.50. That is what JOE really cares about. I am a homeowner at WS and a shareholder of JOE. I gotta tell you....JOE senior management really scares me. I intend to sell my 2500 shares in this run up. They have no vision and no committment and now they will just be a dirt company. Because they have no committment and no guts, they have given up all the upside when things eventually do turn up. Thanks for the profit, JOE.

[SHELLY]

The latest and greatest restructuring is having the desired effect...JOE stock up $1.45 today to 35.50. That is what JOE really cares about. I am a homeowner at WS and a shareholder of JOE. I gotta tell you....JOE senior management really scares me. I intend to sell my 2500 shares in this run up. They have no vision and no committment and now they will just be a dirt company. Because they have no committment and no guts, they have given up all the upside when things eventually do turn up. Thanks for the profit, JOE.


They're down to $34.79 in afterhours.

Just a thought: Wouldn't it be better to just write off a small loss to this years gains instead of taking a short-term capital gains hit?

.

[goofer44]

Actually the print of 34.79 in the after market is some hedge fund that is SHORT Joe marking DOWN the stock to decrease the loss that the position generated today. When I was in the hedge fund business , we would mark up and mark down positions everyday. The price in the newspaper will show JOE closing at 34.79 and that is the price the prime broker will use when they do the daily profit and loss report. But JOE will open tomorrow at 35 and change. If you want to see crazy price action watch trading on Dec 31 this year and then the marks in the after hour trading.
I am already doing tax planning. I have gains this year from the stock market that I am pairing off against real estate that I am selling to realize those losses. Thanks for the advice, though.

[dude]

all in all i think this will be positive for joe - they appear to be getting back to their core competency (cost basis of raw land). essentially, they are getting out of the end user market & into b2b. the will now focus on adding value through the entitlement process - this compressed value chain will likely prove them to be a much more flexible organization in this current state of turmoil.

Their maybe some longer term value there, but i personally would want more clarity as to how they will proceed strategically, what assets they are holding on to, & a little more about the stock repurchase &/or future expected dividends. otherwise, you would think their is going to be some volatility & hence opportunity in the short-run.

[full time]

Dude - Strategy ... What strategy? I have some undeveloped or underdeveloped land, make me an offer. That ain't much of a long term business plan. Sorry, I fail to see the positives for Joe or this area at this juncture. Hopefully, I'm wrong.

[Miss Kitty]

sowalgayboi...before you have to retract another statement on here, please consider what you are posting before hitting the submit button. Thanks.

[goodwitch58]

How do you suppose Joe's "restructuring" will affect their support for the new airport?

[elgordoboy]

sowalgayboi...before you have to retract another statement on here, please consider what you are posting before hitting the submit button. Thanks.
Same thing occured to me yesterday.

[TooFarTampa]

How do you suppose Joe's "restructuring" will affect their support for the new airport?

I've wondered the same thing. Goodwitch I am posting this link for your "enjoyment" and also for SHELLY, who I know must love Diane Roberts.

Diane Roberts knows how to tell a story but it is always one-sided. In this case I think I am coming around more to her opinion on this one:

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/10/09/Opinion/A_boondoggle_in_the_F.shtml

Here's yesterday's St. Pete Times story on Joe. The comments at the end are typical. I actually talked to a condo developer in Tampa a couple of weeks ago who told me that he thinks what has been happening in the Panhandle is "horrible." :funn: :blink:

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/10/09/Business/Fla_developer_calls_r.shtml

[goodwitch58]

Thanks, Too Far...Diane is always a good read.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

[SHELLY]

How do you suppose Joe's "restructuring" will affect their support for the new airport?

The "Airport" is the only arrow left in its quiver, they've got no other choice than to fight for it to the death.

.

[SHELLY]

They really call it"Rightsizing" instead of "Downsizing".



JOE calls it "Accelerating Value Creation".....:roll:


I call it "Saving One's Arse."


.